Sheep Picks (14)

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are deangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

Well, I hate to do this, as I really like Eberechi Eze: I think he's a tremendous player, have often had him in my own FPL squad over the past few years, and would like to see him being given a more regular role with England. But.... he is my nominaton for a dangerously overrated 'Sheep Pick' for Gameweek 37 of this season.

He's the second-most transferred-in player for this gameweek (after Ollie Watkins, who I already raised doubts about a couple of weeks ago - although he looks a much stronger option at this stage,... if you can afford the transfer [people who rushed to buy him earlier in the week, to avoid a price rise, before they'd heard possible late injury news, were taking a big, BIG gamble!]), with a net influx of nearly 237,000 new owners. And that's purely because he bagged a brace of goals last week, to become the 'Player of the Week'. Indeed he did: but that was only against absolutely awful Spurs - it wasn't really a terribly convincing performance, either from him or his team. (And it was one of the most dire gameweeks overall that any of us can remember for years....! He was only 'player of the week' because almost all the other most fancied players failed to come up with anything.)  And yes, that does make it 5 goals in the last 6 games for him; he's certainly been in some tasty form lately. But as with Josko Gvardiol last week, one of my key objections to this sudden rush-to-buy is that you really should have had him already, bringing him in ahead of Palace's back-to-back Double Gameweeks in weeks 32 and 33. (I recommended him in preference to Ismaila Sarr ahead of Gameweek 30. Since then, he's scored 53 points to Sarr's 22!)

It is, however, worth noting that his team's form has been quite unconvincing since the beginning of April: they've only managed modest wins against defensively flakey Brighton and Spurs, while being held to a draw by dreadful Southampton. Their best result was probably the spirited 2-2 draw at Arsenal. But 4 draws and 2 losses in their last 8 games have seen them lose almost all hope of possible European qualification through League position. And - as I predicted - their performance in the two Doubles was particularly disappointing; that was because they struggle to perform well twice in the same week (they're not used to it, having never played in any of the European competitions [apart from a brief foray into the old pre-season InterToto Cup], and their squad is quite thin, so they're not able to rest players much); and they were up against four good opponents in those games. The same is the case now: after the huge emotional and physical challenge of the Cup Final against Manchester City on Saturday afternoon (which could go to extra time and penalties), they have to play their last 2 league games within less than 5 days. And those games are against Wolves and Liverpool. 

Admittedly, those two opponents have both stumbled in the last couple of games, but Palace would surely be nowhere near favourites to win either of these fixtures,... even if they were well-rested. Wolves have some of the best attacking form in the League since Vitor Pereira took over: from the beginning of February they went on a run of 8 wins and a draw from 11 games; and they were hard done-by to end a streak of 6 wins on the bounce against City two weeks ago, when they actually looked much the better side. They had a very off day against Brighton last week, but that's no reason to suppose that their glittering form of the past few months has suddenly completely deserted them. And Liverpool, yes, they have - not unexpectedly - lost a little focus and passion since they wrapped up the title with a month to spare; but they're still a team that can take apart anyone, even at 80% of their best. And you have to think that their passion will be rekindled by the desire to celebrate their championship in style on the last day at Anfield. On paper, Palace really don't have a snowball's chance in either of those games.

And they have only the slenderest hypothetical chance of squeaking into the Europa Conference League spot through their League finish, anyway. They not only need to win both of their games next week (won't happen), but they need Brentford and Brighton to each lose both of their remaining games (won't happen), and Bournemouth and Fulham to also drop points (that is pretty likely; but I'd bet that they'll both still finish above Palace).

Palace's season now rests on the Cup Final; they can't realistically finish in the top half of the League, they can't qualify for a European competition any other way - Saturday is the be-all and end-all of their season. And whatever result they get, they are likely to be completely wrung-out, and not in any condition to focus much on those two remaining League games, which will be meaningless for them. Plus, of course, there's the very serious risk that Eze, or other key players, will pick up an injury on Saturday, or at least be too fatigued by that game to be capable of many minutes on Tuesday,... or maybe even next Saturday,... or to play very well, even if they do trot out for the full 90 minutes both times. I really hope Palace can upset City at Wembley; but either way, that match is surely going to ruin them for next week. [Well, HOORAY - Palace did pull off that fairytale 'underdog' win in the Cup (though, on this season's form, they can't really be considered underdogs in this match-up), to the delight of all 'neutrals' around the world. Moreover, they didn't appear to pick up any injuries (though Wharton, who is pretty important to them, might be a doubt; and Guehi, who took a ball in the side of the head, might be excluded on Tuesday night by 'concussion protocols'), nor get any suspensions either (but, oh boy, was Dean Henderson lucky!); it didn't go to extra time; and City didn't even give them that tough a game physically (although it was, by English standards, quite a 'hot day'....). So, my reasonable concerns about whether they might be severely fatigued or demoralised, or suffering a significantly depleted squad this week, may have come to naught. And maybe there's even a possibility that the elation of their Wembley success will raise their game over their last two league matches. However, I still maintain that it was a huge risk to assume/hope that they would come through Saturday so well.  And it is still overwhelmingly likely that they will be tired, and lacking motivation in these remaining matches - particularly on Tuesday evening (when they'll presumably also be very short of tactical preparation, having spent 24 or 48 of the intervening 73-and-a-half hours celebrating...!). It is a very rare - almost unheard-of!! - circumstance to have teams playing in the Cup Final before the end of the League season; but when that does happen, you don't really want to be gambling on players from those teams.]

Ebere Eze is a tremendous player who can come up with a goal contribution at any time, against any opponent. But in the context of a crowded last week of the season, when he and his teammates will have nothing to play for, and facing two very dangerous opponents, it really doesn't seem at all likely that he will do so in Gameweeks 37 and 38. If you'd fancied his prospects over the past month-and-a-half, with the double Double, you should have had him already. But now is the time to sell him, not buy him.