Sheep Picks (13)

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are deangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

I wasn't expecting to have to nominate anyone in Gameweek 36, but - strangely, amazingly - there are quite a few players gaining a fair old flood of new owners this week; and the most curious of these selections is surely Josko Gvardiol. As of Friday morning, he's already reached 200,000 transfers-in for the week, with more than 24 hours to go before the Gameweek deadline; that puts him neck-and-neck with Bryan Mbeumo, not far behind Yoane Wissa, and miles ahead of Chris Wood and Matheus Cunha (though trailing in the dust of his illustrious teammate, Kevin DeBruyne) - all of whom (including KDB) I find far more justifiable picks.

Now, yes, Pep does seem to have ironed out many of Manchester City's problems, has got them looking reasonably dangerous again (though still far from impregnable, and a pale shadow of what they were last season). And the big Croatian has been playing very well of late: in fact, thanks to the recently faltering form of formerly strong defensive sides like Forest, Bournemouth, and Palace, he's just managed to edge into the Top Three of the FPL defender rankings (his best placing of the season, I think; he's usually only ever been hovering around the Top Five briefly, when he's just scored a goal - and has quite often dropped well out of the Top Ten...). And yes, they are facing Southampton this weekend - which could be an invitation to a spectacular goalfest.

However, City's final two fixtures - Bournemouth and Fulham - aren't at all straightforward: a win in those games can't be guaranteed, and I wouldn't be betting on City keeping a clean sheet in either of them. (And, since Gvardiol is currently playing in the centre of defence, he's not terribly likely to pick up points for anything else...)  Even Southampton shouldn't be taken for granted: they are the only one of the promoted sides to really show some steel - and some threat - over the past month or so, with their big striker, Paul Onuachu, in particular, looking quite dangerous. City will surely win that one, and win it quite comfortably; but the clean sheet might elude them.

Frankly, I think I'd still rather have almost any of the other top fifteen or so FPL defenders of the moment than Gvardiol. In addition to the consistently dependable-in-defence Forest and Liverpool, Wolves are in very impressive form and have an invitingly soft run-in, while Everton, West Ham, and Brentford might also offer some tempting defensive options because of their fixtures.

But the key problem with acquiring Gvardiol now is not whether he's any good (he is; but he's not clearly the best prospect in his position, and he's too damned expensive!), or whether City's form has convincingly turned around (I still have a few doubts on that), or how good their remaining fixture-run is (I'd call it just so-so) - but.... WHY DON'T YOU HAVE HIM ALREADY??  He's just kept 4 clean sheets in the last 6 games! He's just had a Double Gameweek!! Surely everyone who fancied him (and/or City) for the closing phase of the season should have already brought him in at least a few weeks ago???

Maybe people moved him out for his Blank in GW34, and are now moving him back?? It's a terrible waste of transfers to do short-term swapsies like that, particularly for such an expensive player (and one who's gone up in price so much, meaning that you might lose quite a bit of money on him via the dreaded 'transfer tax'). But some people don't know what they're doing....

And maybe some are only just using their Wildcard this week, and thinking they can bring in a bunch of players primarily for this week's fixtures. Though with a Wildcard rebuild, you really have to consider the whole upcoming fixture-run, not just the juicy opponent this week. And in any case, the Wildcard should really have been dropped before now (ideally, two weeks ago...). Some people don't know what they're doing.

But if you haven't got the luxury of a Wildcard rebuild to deploy this late in the season,... and you haven't got a bunch of saved 'Free Transfers' burning a hole in your pocket,.... if, like most people, you've just got your one cost-free transfer of the week to use,.... at this stage of the season, when fatigue and injuries can take such a toll and last-minute dropouts threaten every week, you really need to just roll your transfers for possible emergency fire-fighting (you might find yourself without 2 or 3 starters next week!).

'Elective transfers' are an extravagance you can rarely afford to indulge; and in the closing weeks of the season, they are positively reckless. And burning a transfer on a defender,.... just because they have one 'good' fixture....?  That is absolutely, certifiably NUTS!