Sheep Picks (12)

 

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are deangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

So, for Gameweek 35, I'm going to nominate Ollie Watkins. It's not qctually quite as bad as I'd thought: I've been seeing him mentioned all over the Facebook forums in the last few days, and it had seemed like he was going to be one of the week's most transferred-in players. In fact, it looks like he might come up around 60,000 or 70,000 new buyers - which is significant, but not quite a stampede. However, he has edged up to become the 5th most popular forward (effectively 4th, since Haaland still isn't available to start), with nearly 19% ownership - ahead of the much more in-form Wissa and Cunha.... which is just NUTS.

Now, I like Watkins a lot; and he has started to look sharp again in the last few weeks - particularly in the surprise win against Newcastle the other week, when he notched a goal and an assist. Villa's form, too, so patchy in the first half of the season, has shown a strong improvement since February - and they've now racked up 6 wins in their last 8 games, to come storming up the table to get back into the Champions League conversation (I still don't think they're good enough to deserve to qualify for the premier competition; but at least they're giving it a damn good go at the moment). People are also taking encouragement from the recent news of a significant hamstring injury for Marcus Rashford, which seems to diminish the prospect of Watkins getting rationed minutes any longer.

However, the counter-arguments would be: a)  He's been getting short minutes recently (in fact, he's only played a full 90 two or three times since the turn of the year) because of an injury worry; he might not yet be fully over that, might perhaps still be carrying a problem of some sort.  b)  His omission from so many games, including the recent Champions League showdown with PSG, might suggest other problems - perhaps that he's out of favour with Emery because he's looking to leave the club at the end of the season. c) Villa's 'charge' has been aided by hefty helpings of luck: 2 of their run of wins have come against bottom-of-the-table clubs (which scarcely counts!), while they squeaked wins they didn't really deserve against Chelsea, Brentford, and Forest, and Newcastle mysteriously failed to show up for their surprise 4-1 hammering a couple of weeks ago; Villa were well beaten by City last week, and by Palace early in their present successful run. Their form hasn't really looked all that consistent or convincing. d) The run-in over the final 4 Gameweeks, though not too daunting, is far from straightforward either: Villa might struggle to get a result in some of these fixtures, and certainly can't be assured of any large and comfortable wins.

But - as is usually the case with these strangely over-popular selections - the decisive argument against bringing in Watkins is the quality of the alternative selections. Cunha, Strand Larsen, and Wissa are in outstanding form and have a great closing run of fixtures; Marmoush has also looked very dangerous in recent weeks; Isak and Wood are the season's outstanding performers up-front (though, admittedly, there are signs that both their and their teams' form may be faltering...); and Welbeck, Mateta, and perhaps even Ipswich's Liam Delap could be tempting left-field picks in the closing weeks of the season.

You only get 3 forward picks in FPL. And I don't see how Ollie Watkins, even on the most optimistic assessment of team form and minutes prospects, is any better than the 4th or 5th most promising pick in that position at the moment.