Time to say goodbye?

Cole Palmer has hit a bit of a lull in producitivity, and The Sheep have lost confidence in him. Actually, The Sheep were losing confidence in him after only one or two blanks: after only one return in his last 7 outings, and a 'missed' penalty against Leicester, they're positively up in arms about his supposedly 'awful form'. And there is, unfortunately, likely to be a big sell-off on him this week. In fact, he's already lost nearly 800,000 owners from his peak ownership level of nearly 7.7 million at the turn of the year, and slipped back in price from 11.4 to 11.1 million. However, that's still 600k higher than he was at the start of the year when everyone bought him, so.... you do need to be confident that you won't want him for the rest of the season. If he suddenly rediscovers his scoring boots, and you decide you want him back in a few weeks, you might have tossed away quite a bit of money. (Of course, there is also a possibility that if the stampede away from him gathers more pace, his price will soon drop below its starting level, or at least below what you're selling him for now, so the possible loss of squad value won't be a worry; that is a big gamble to take at this point, though.)

However, I think it might be worth holding on to him just a little bit longer, for these reasons:

1)  He's not 'playing badly'; his team is. But that might soon change.

Romeo Lavia's absence for the past few months has been devastating to Chelsea. He gives them much more security in the middle of the park, and allows Enzo Fernandez to play higher up the pitch, helping to give the high press more cutting edge and otten winning the ball back near the penalty area. Nicolas Jackson has also been a big miss: his finishing was vastly improved in the early part of this season, and he'd formed a great understanding with Palmer - frequently providing assists to him, as well as gratefully accepting several sublime assists himself. Noni Madueke also gives the side a much better range of attacking options - and is the other player who's most often assisted and been assisted by Palmer. All three of those players look like they could be back in action soon.

2)  He's still eager, busy, involved: there's no sign of a loss of energy or confidence.

I always counsel against listening to people who try to cite 'underlying numbers' in support of a position. But in this case, I believe it's justified. Although Palmer has had a few 'quiet' games, and a number of his stats have fallen a good way from what they've been at their best,... they're still not bad. Indeed, his overall involvement - number of touches, number of touches in and around the box, pass completion - is holding up pretty well; he's still central to Chelsea's creative efforts, on the ball more than any other player (and, if the BPS weren't such complete crap, he'd be getting 1 or 2 bonus points every week, even when they don't win; that's how influential he is in this team). He's still getting a fair few scoring chances as well. In fact, he's just been desperately unlucky on many occasions - throughout this season, really, not just during the recent 'slump': he's had efforts go narrowly wide, smack against the woodwork, or bring smart saves out of the keeper in almost every game.

3)  Chelsea's LUCK has got to change eventually, right?

Palmer didn't 'miss' that penalty. OK, he might have telegraphed which side he was putting it, and he didn't tuck it right inside the post, as he usually does; but it was cleanly hit, firm and low, well to the keeper's left - it needed a really good save to keep it out. And it was an illegal save: Hermansen was fully airborne before the ball had left Palmer's boot; the kick should have been retaken, but VAR seemingly didn't even look at that. Moreover, he should have had at least one other penalty, possibly two in that game. And Chelsea have had good penalty shouts mysteriously ignored by the officials several times this season. The overall number of penalties is well down on last year, mainly because of a more generous interpretation of the Handball Law favouring defenders. But Chelsea have been awarded barely a third as many penalties as they were last year; that is a freakish phenomenon - and very, very unjust. Surely, referees can't continue to be this 'biased' against them all season: the luck needs to start balancing out a little at some point.

4)  The fixtures are still looking quite good

Apart from Arsenal this weekend (and they've got problems of their own at the moment; I wouldn't write off Chelsea's chances of an upset win in this one), Chelsea have a pretty soft run through to the end of next month. If the team is soon back to full strength and starts firing again, there could be some big results in prospect.

5)  There's a shortage of really convincing replacements for him

Bruno Fernandes comes up with a great goal once in a while, but Manchester United's form is just awful: he feels like a bit of a risk even for the Leicester game this week, and certainly not a strong prospect for the remainder of the season. City are still looking pretty dreadful too. Arsenal are struggling in the absence of Saka and Martinelli: Trossard and Merino have not lived up to the hopes people had for their attacking potential. Brentford and Bryan Mbeumo appear to be going off the boil again (he was so anonymous in last week's game that I had to doublecheck the match reports to find out if he'd even been playing!), and they have a horrible fixture-run from now on. Son and Bowen haven't really been lighting any fires. Jota's perpetually injured, Diaz is too much of a minutes-risk. and Szoboszlai's a bit too up-and-down in his FPL returns. Though Iwobi, in particular, often looks dangerous, Fulham have been dreadfully inconsistent. And the hour of the Bournemouth attacking midfielders may have passed, now that Evanilson has resumed the primary goalscorer duties there (Kluivert still looks in white-hot form; but the argument in favour of Ouattara or Semenyo, or Brooks or Tavernier, has abruptly faded). Anthony Gordon's been looking jaded, exhausted lately; and now he's picked up a three-game ban. Only Mitoma, Eze, and Hudson-Odoi/Elanga/Gibbs-White have recently staked a claim to inclusion in FPL squads; but none of the 'big name' midfield prospects are looking any better than Palmer at the moment.

I confess I am really torn on this (well, I would be, if I were still playing; I quit in protest at the absurdity of the 'Assstant Manager' chip - that detachment perhaps enables me to view this situation a little more calmly). The drop-off in Palmer's points returns is certainly concerning, especially for such an expensive player. And I think that, if Chelsea don't start to turn things around in the next 2 or 3 games, the case for dropping him will become overwhelmng. But it's not quite that yet. I suspect people who've dropped him now might soon find cause to regret the decision.