Sheep Picks (5)

 

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think.

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are dangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

Dominic Solanke had a very good season with Bournemouth last year. And his move to such an all-out attacking side as Spurs seemed to bode well for his chances of achieving an even higher goal tally this season. He's been a little slow to settle in at his new club, but now he's suddenly nabbed 2 goals (and an assist) against Villa, The Sheep are stampeding after him. Their fervour is no doubt heightened by the fact Spurs have leading relegation candidates Ipswich up next. There has been much chatter on the forums about him now being an obvious captaincy pick for that game (possibly even a Triple Captain punt?!). 

I rate Solanke highly as a striker, but you have to assess his FPL potential in context. His prime virtues are industry and stamina: he's great in his hold-up play, and in vigorously leading the high press (which is why Postecoglou bought him). However, that does mean he's often dropping deep to pick up early balls through the middle, or pulling out wide to create space in the middle for teammates. There are a number of other attacking players at Spurs - notably Son and Johnson, but also Kulusevski and a few others on occasion - with whom he'll be sharing the goals. And being such an unselfish 'team player' like this, he's probably not going to enjoy a particularly prolific season. It should also be noted that Emery's Villa have always been a bit shakey in defence; and they were really poor all-around in that last game, just didn't turn up for it. (But Spurs were even worse than them in the first half...)

Solanke's style of play and Spurs's erratic form (and the apprent fall from favour of James Maddison, who would probably have been Solanke's most productive provider) make him a very unpromising pick, regardless of how sharp his personal form may currently look.

And it is foolish to get over-excited about the prospect of facing Ipswich. They are a much better side than most people give them credit for - much the best of the promoted sides, for my money. They've had some very tough luck so far; but they've generally produced good showings against the top clubs (getting dogged draws against Brighton and Villa, and putting up a very spirited resistance in the opening game against Liverpool). They are well capable of causing an upset this weekend, if Spurs get complacent.

So, Solanke doesn't look a good pick within the context of Spurs's form and the way he plays in that team. But he also doesn't look a good pick from the point of view of the field of available forwards. If you want to go for an upper-mid-price forward (to support Haaland, or to take his place as main goalscorer in your squad), then Isak and Jackson are clearly miles better. But there are so many high-performing strikers this year in the 5.5-6.5-million category that it's really not necessary to have a high-priced forward at all.

Buying a player just because he got a brace last week is NUTS. Buying a player just because he's facing a promoted side next is NUTS. When that player is Dominic Solanke and his team is Spurs, such a decision is utterly BATSHIT INSANE!