The roll of Doom

I had been thinking for a week or two of doing a brief post on possible/probable managerial sackings, and how that might impact FPL fortunes over the coming month or so, but.... well, I left it a bit too long, and the two prime candidates, Maresca and Amorim, pressed their own 'Eject' buttons to force an exit a bit earlier than most people were probably expecting.

Both Chelsea and United have been very inconsistent this season, and, overall, performing well below what you'd imagine their optimum potential ought to be. And both managers, you suspect, may have become somewhat unpopular with at least some of their players - particularly Amorim, whose obstinate adherence to a tactical system that obviously just didn't work with the players he had available, compounded by an insane insistence on tinkering with the line-up every single week for no fathomable reason, must have been enormously frustrating. So, I think there are excellent prospects for a very strong new manager bounce at both clubs. But that phenomenon is of very uncertain force and longevity, sadly tends to fizzle away quite soon.

I fancy that Liam Rosenior and whoever gets brought in at Old Trafford are both likely to be 'interim appointments' only, and will be moved on within 6-12 months, regardless of their results. But, that being the case, they're quite unlikely to get terminated earlier than that, even if their results are dreadful.

It's probably not a bad thing for a new United coach to have to start with fixtures against City and Arsenal, because no-one's really expected to win those, and anything the team can show in those games will be a plus. And after that daunting opening double, there's a run of much softer targets up until the end of February - and, with the aid of the new manager bounce, we might see some very good results for them in that period, I think. The problem for FPL is that we don't know what formation or selection the new man will favour, or how far certain players will thrive in it. Patrick Dorgu, in particular, has looked very promising when deployed in an attacking role a couple of times recently (and, since his FPL price has dropped so low, he's probably worth hanging on to as a 4th/5th defender, just to wait and see how things develop), but is quite likely to go back to being a more conventional full-back - if he keeps his place at all (Mazraoui or Shaw are better defensively, I think). If they show some defensive solidity, Lammens could become a tempting possibility in goal, at least as the back-up choice. Sesko, now that he finally seems to have found his scoring boots, could certainly be worth considering. Mount always looks good when he plays, but his injury-proneness has become a major problem. And of course Bruno is having his best season in years - although still, for me, a rather too intermittent points producer to be a really compelling FPL selection; his attractiveness will probably depend on whether the new coach continues to use him as a pivot player alongside Casemiro (there may be little alternative, since Casemiro doesn't have the legs to fill the role on his own any more, and Ugarte does not appear to be Premier League class) or allows him a freer role as an advanced playmaker, where he can really prosper. Cunha has started to show flashes of his former greatness again at last, but I fear that might evaporate as soon as Mbeumo's back; the Brazilian looks like one of those players who likes to have the spotlight on him, and only really excels when he's carrying the responsibility of being the team's star player and main goal outlet.

Enzo Fernandez (who's only intermittently shown FPL value), Cole Palmer and Joao Pedro (who haven't been worth selecting at all so far, but obviously have enormous potential if things start clicking for them under Rosenior), and Reece James (who's having a superb season, but unfortunately is still under the shadow of restricted minutes because of his past injury record) could become FPL essentials again at some point in the second-half of the season; and it might well happen immediately, since they face a very soft run of fixtures up until their clash with Arsenal at the end of next month.

What other managerial changes might be on the cards??

Well, I think Scott Parker is probably the most needful departure. He was quite a commanding presence on the pitch in his playing days, but he just doesn't give off that same energy as a coach - in fact, he doesn't express any energy at all. His morose, monotonous, emotionless drone of a press-conference performance sucks the life out of a room, and if he's like that in the dressing-room too, I can see why the Burnley players aren't lifting their level of performance. He gives the impression, too, of just not knowing why things are going wrong, having no real idea how to turn things around. And Burnley are deep, deep in the mire now, 8 points adrift of safety; the club needs to make a change soon to have any hope of Premier League survival. Frankly, I think it may already be too late, even if they can pull off an inspirational change of manager. But at least such a shake-up might shift the FPL calculus as to how much of a soft touch they're likely to be for opponents. (And I quite fancy Zian Flemming as a cheap 3rd striker option, if he keeps a regular start....)

Thomas Frank, alas, is probably the next most likely to get the axe fairly soon. A tremendously likeable man, and widely regarded as one of the most astute coaches in the game, but.... he is looking rather out of his depth at Spurs. But that may be second only to Manchester United as an ultimate 'poisoned chalice' appointment; there have been so many things wrong at that club for so many years that it's a huge task for any manager to dig them out of the mire in a single season. Being without their first-choice forward and their principal playmaker all season so far, and usually without at least one of their main defensive options as well, has obviously taken its toll. West Ham and Burnley up next ought to be easy wins; and then they have City, for whom they have become a bit of a bogey team in recent years. A few decent results over the coming month, and a few encouraging acquisitions during the window, should lift the clouds over Frank's head, I think. But some bad performances and bad results in these next three fixtures could seal his fate - that's how much of a knife-edge he's on right now.

I fear poor Nuno Espirito Santo's days might be numbered as well. I really like him, I think he comes across as a very honest, direct, decent and affable character, and he's proved himself in the past to be a very capable coach. But he's looking depressed at the moment - sad, lost, and defeated, like he doesn't think he can fix what's wrong at West Ham. Maybe no-one can - not without a major lift from some January transfers. But I think the club will have to try someone different quite soon, if they can't at least start to claw back some of the gap to Leeds and Forest. Matches against promoted Sunderland and Burnley in the next few weeks are likely to be make-or-break for Nuno, I suspect.

Sean Dyche is probably somewhat at risk too. Forest have improved a bit from their rocky start, particularly the horrible nosedive they took during the ill-advised Postecoglou interlude, but they're still not very consistent, still nowhere near the levels they were achieving last year. So long as they can maintain a decent gap over the bottom three (which might be more down to their continuing failures than Forest's 'success'), he'll probably be OK. But if the poor results continue while Burnley or West Ham mount a bit of a rally, I think he could be out of the door very quickly. Evangelos Marinakis has shown himself to be a very emotional, impulsive, and impatient man - and he's likely to get very spooked at any prospect of descending to the Championship again.

Andoni Iraola might also be under some threat, given Bournemouth's horrible run of results over the past couple of months (and things might get even worse for them if they do indeed lose Semenyo - and can't strengthen the squad in this transfer window). But they have a very inviting run of fixtures coming up now (apart from Liverpool at the end of the month, and at least that's at home). And frankly, those poor results have looked very largely down to some bad luck, rather than really bad performances. Given what Iraola has achieved for the club over the past couple of seasons, he deserves to be cut a lot of slack during an occasional downturn like this. I really can't see him deserving the sack, even if Bournemouth were to finish the season skirting the relegation zone - but I really don't think that's likely. Should it happen, however, the club's ownership might think that a new broom might re-energize things; but not for another month or two yet, at least, I would think, and probably not until the end of the season. The graver risk, perhaps, is that he might get tempted by offers from bigger clubs.

I don't think anyone else looks likely to be at risk this season. Arne Slot was probably always fairly bulletproof at Anfield - unless the team had sunk deep into the bottom half of the table, and they're surely much too good for that to happen. If they crash out of the Champions League early and fail to qualify for it next year through their league finish, then there might be a re-evaluation at the end of the season; but I can't see him going before that.

And Rob Edwards probably has the most secure job in the league right now: he was obviously hired for next year in the Championship. Salvaging a little bit of pride for Wolves, perhaps not finishing dead last, would be an adequate achievement for him this season - and, frankly, nobody is really expecting even that much.