Pick of the Transfers

Now that the mid-season transfer window is finally done with,.... have there been any deals done which might be particularly exciting for FPL?

NO, probably not, really.

The only 'big name' signings, both wrapped up very early, were City's poaching of Antoine Semenyo from Bournemouth and Marc Guehi from Palace. 

Now, many naive FPL managers assume that a good player moving to a better club automatically means that he's going to become an even better prospect in FPL. Sadly, this is not always the case.

Our great dilemma now is whether these two players, who had looked like very strong picks so far with their original clubs, will continue to be worth their place in an FPL team. I'm very dubious about that. They might be OK, maybe even somewhat better than OK; but they almost certainly won't be quite as productive as they were in the first half of the season. At Palace, Guehi, as the main 'progresser' in a back-three, often enjoyed the licence to push far upfield, and sometimes even join in with the attack; and this was why he'd shown such a burgeoning propensity for picking up the occasional goal over the last year or so. With City, as part of a more conventional centre-back pair (and particularly in a team who are struggling to stay tight at the back, and struggling to maintain their title ambitions), he's probably going to be pretty locked down as the last line of defence, hence not getting many, or any, of those goalscoring opportunities any more. And I seriously doubt if City, the way they look at the moment, will keep as many clean sheets from here on as Palace did during the opening third of the season.

Likewise, Semenyo was starting to thrive on being the main man at Bournemouth: not just their most consistent and threatening creative player, but increasingly their primary source of goals too. (Last season, he'd blown a bit hot and cold, was too often ceding the limelight to Kluivert, Tavernier, Ouattara, Evanilson; at the beginning of the new term, he looked like he'd really taken a step forward to accepting the responsibility to lead the side's attacking efforts week-in, week-out.) Now, he's just a bit-part player in a team that has lots of other stars, and lots of other sources of goals. He has looked very good in his first few games for City, and is relishing having an immediate regular start. But this might be somewhat fortuitous, as his arrival coincided with an injury to Jeremy Doku. I fear it's highly likely that, when everyone's fit, Semenyo will find himself in a three-way rotation with Doku and Cherki for the two wide attacking positions (and, indeed, there's a chance that other players like Marmoush or Foden or Ait-Nouri may also occasionally claim one of those spots); he might get more than his share of those starts, and he might often produce some nice points when he does start - but you can't really be taking a chance on a player for FPL if he's not a guaranteed starter. Folks have been encouraged to think that Semenyo will be, by his bright start at the club; but it is unlikely to be so.

At the moment, these two players are maintaining a high FPL ownership largely by inertia: folks who'd owned them already at their former clubs are mostly hanging on to them, on a wait-and-see basis. Anyone who brought them into an FPL squad because of their transfers to City was making a very speculative play - and, I would venture, probably ultimately an unwise one.

Amongst the rest of the recent moves, it was the return of Pascal Gross to Brighton that most caught my eye. He's an outstanding all-round midfielder, good at anchoring the central areas, but also often dangerous in pushing forward to support the attack. I expect him to do pretty well on 'defensive points', and he might pick up a few goals too (as he did quite a lot towards the end of his previous spell at the club); he's a solid penalty-taker as well, although I doubt if he'll immediately resume that duty for them. We're a bit spoiled for choice at the moment for dependable midfield dynamos to inexpensively fill 5th - and maybe even 4th - midfield slots; but if he's still as good as he was 18 months ago, I think Gross could perhaps get himself into that conversation as well. [I suppose some would fancy that Douglas Luiz going back to Villa could have a similar impact. But I fear Luiz's original departure from the club was less amicable than Gross's, which might cause some ongoing problems in fitting back in. And, good as he is, I can't see him being able to plug all the gaps left by Kamara and Tielemans and McGinn.]

The only other new signing I fancy could have a significant impact in FPL is Stefan Ortega, who's just joined Nottingham Forest. He is an outstanding keeper, who really deserved more minutes at City. And with Forest's former preferred starters between the sticks, Matz Sels and John Victor, both currently suffering from injury problems, he will surely start immediately (although I don't think you buy someone of his quality to be a back-up option anyway - well, not unless you're Pep!). Forest have a very solid defensive unit, and are starting to toughen up again after a horrifically wobbly first half of the season; Dyche is a dour and pragmatic manager who emphasises the old-school virtues of discipline, tenacity, and workrate - so, I imagine Forest will usually be fairly robust at the back from here on. And, apart from facing Liverpool and City in quick succession around the end of this month, their run-in to the end of the season doesn't look too daunting. The problem, alas, is that Ortega - and his struggling, bottom-of-the-table side - are too 'unproven' to be appealing for the first-choice goalkeeper pick; and he's really just a bit too expensive for a back-up. He started the season at a whopping 5.0 million, which was really ridiculous for a second-string keeper, even at a top club; presumably the FPL Gnomes were anticipating that he was about to graduate to a regular start, amid the rumours of Ederson's possible imminent departure (but, of course, Pep then promptly brought in Trafford and Donnarumma, to dump poor Ortega even further down the pecking-order). His price has since fallen to 4.7 million; but you can still buy the recently impressive Kelleher and Verbruggen for less than that - so, I can't see him getting into many FPL teams. But anyone who does gamble on him,.... might get lucky.

And Oscar Bobb, of course, is hugely talented, and you fancy that he could start producing big points if he got a run of starts somewhere - could Fulham give him that chance? But he's had his injury problems, of course; and so often being left out in the cold by Pep, even when he's fit, has likely dented his confidence some. Also, it's not as if Fulham are short of creative options in the wide positions, with Wilson, Chukwueze, and the young Brazilian Kevin all looking outstanding recently. What the club really needed in this window was a young centre-forward to help Raul out (I wonder if they went in for Strand Larsen?), not yet another winger. But we shall see; if Marco Silva does entrust him with a regular start, maybe we might get some fireworks from him.

I'm also very pleased to see Angel Gomes joining Wolves on loan. His career seems to have lost steam over the last 18 months or so, as he's suffered with a series of injuries; and he now appears to have somehow fallen out of favour at Marseille. He is a fantastically smart and versatile midfielder, and was the absolute standout of Lee Carsley's brief but exciting stewardship of the England team two years ago; I really feel he ought to be able to get himself back into the selection conversation for our World Cup squad (although we'd probably need to see Anderson, Rice and Mainoo pick up injuries - heaven forbid! - for that to happen...). I imagine he's likely to be deployed more in a holding role, and thus is unlikely to produce all that many FPL points himself. But he's the kind of player who could catalyse a significant improvement in the team around him - and that might elevate one or two other Wolves players into FPL contention over the closing months of the season.

Facundo Buonanotte's loan move to Leeds is also intriguing. Unfortunately - though not at all surprisingly - he couldn't get many minutes at Chelsea in the first half of the season; but he is a fantastic creative talent, and made quite an impact with Leicester last season (and he's only just turned 21!). If he gets a regular start and finds a vein of form, he could possibly merit attention as an occasional 5th-seat pick. But I fear he might not get that many starts at Leeds either: he's more of a No. 10 than a wide attacker, and Leeds don't really play with one of those at the moment; and in the wider positions, he'll face competition from the likes of Stach, Ampadu, Aaronson, Gnonto, and James. So, I think he's one worth keeping on the radar, but not someone we should really be expecting anything of.

Jørgen Strand Larsen shifting to Palace and Tammy Abraham going to Villa might perhaps develop into possible 3rd-forward options. But neither have been in great form lately; and, if Ollie Watkins's sore hamstring isn't too much of an issue, Abraham is only likely to be getting minutes off the bench, I fancy. 

I suppose Tyrique George's loan move to Everton, where he's presumably going to fill in for the injured Grealish on the left flank, could also be interesting; though I don't really fancy anyone at that club to become particularly prolific.

But overall, no - there have been no big splashes for FPL in what was, ultimately, a relatively quiet transfer window. [Check out the Fantasy Football Scout website's full rundown of the trades.]