Possible Picks - 2026 [Pt. 1]

I've always maintained on this blog that I will generally avoid giving direct recommendations for or against any specific player (and I certainly won't be sharing anything about my own squad; not in advance, anyway; maybe occasionally retrospectively, just to share a few 'war stories' for general enlightenment and mirth - and acknowledge my fallibility), but.... since The Big Kick-Off is finally drawing near again, everyone is becoming obsessed with polishing up their opening squads.... and casting around for additional sources of advice.

So, I'll attempt a brief-ish rundown of who I think are the players most worthy of consideration in each position.

Goalkeepers

David Raya is once again the runaway favourite in goal, with fully one-third of the 5.5 million managers who've signed up for the new season so far having picked him. I've said a number of times before that he - or indeed, any premium-priced keeper - is probably a bad pick. I've gone into particular detail with the Raya example - it having a lot to do with the pressure of club quota; that there are often other Arsenal players who'll probably give you more of a differential advantage than him; but at the start of the season, it applies to any keeper priced at 6.0 or higher; and arguably, this year, since so many of the keepers have been priced down, to the 5.5 options as well. (Raya might just about have been worth it last year, because his record-breaking number of clean sheets put him well ahead of the rest of the field by the end of the season. But that could not reasonably have been anticipated before the campaign started; and he only pulled out that gap with a remarkable run of 5 or 6 straight clean sheets near the end of the season; prior to that, he'd been mostly neck-and-neck with the other leading keepers, as I'd anticipated. Moreover, you'd usually expect that other players from a title-challenging team would give you a bigger advantage than the keeper; but none of Arsenal's attacking players were consistently productive for very long, and they suffered so much injury disruption in defence that only Gabriel posted a large number of starts at the back.) Now, Raya is an excellent goalkeeper; and he probably will end up as the top keeper in FPL again. (And perhaps once again Arsenal won't be a high-scoring enough team to make anyone else an attractive long-term selection from them, apart from a regularly-starting defender [or two!].) Even so, I fear 6.0 million is a bit too much to spend on a keeper at the start of the season. Later on, when you've grown your budget a bit, and a lot of the more premium-priced players have got injured or proved to be in disappointing form, you can splash out on a player like Raya; in the initial squad, when budget is a bit tight, it is rash, unnecessary. 

I am a firm believer that two good mid-price keepers, with effective rotation around their more difficult fixtures, will almost always - and often quite substantially - beat the top-price keepers, anyway. Here's the list of the home/away rotation pairings for the coming season (apparently not yet published in a single list on the Premier League's own site, so this is courtesy of Brentford FC's website!). However, it's often better to look at the likely fixture-difficulty (obviously, you're quite likely to take a battering from one of the top clubs even when you have 'home advantage'): AllAboutFPL has this useful list of the most promising fixture pairings through the early part of the season, along with some possible selections.

Kelleher/Henderson look probably the most appealing pairing just on the home/away rotation, although Roefs/Horníček (if he takes the start from Pope; many seem to think he will) and Sels/Rushworth might also be appealing, though considerably riskier, punts. However, Jamie Trafford is a very tempting option now that he's moved to Leeds, and he enjoys a rather fortuitous rotation with Brighton's Bart Verbruggen - who was outstanding for much of last season - with it being possible to avoid pitting either of them against a top four club until the end of January!

The alternative strategy you could try for the early part of the season (though I wouldn't recommend it, as it leaves you unable to deploy your Bench Boost chip at short notice; and it's almost certainly not going to produce as many points for you as a good rotation pair) is to save some money by relying on a sole keeper while taking the cheap back-up from his own club (so, at least you always have a guaranteed starter between the sticks if your primary ever misses a game for some reason): Kinsky/Dubravka is the popular selection under this heading, with 20% going for this pair (probably only because they're so cheap, at just 8.5 for the two of them!); but I'd prefer Verbruggen/Steele as a slightly stronger - um, less Spursy - option at the same low price; and Lammens/Darlow, or perhaps Roefs/Ellborg, would, I think be much better, if you can rake together another 1 million for the goalkeeper budget; although, for that money, you can get two starters, which is surely going to be the preferable option.

Defenders

I already said last week that although Gabriel will probably again be the best defender for FPL,... I just don't think you can justify spending 8 million on him. (Not at the start of the season, anyway. As with a premium keeper, you can usually more comfortably afford that sort of luxury in the second half of the season...) Moreover, I doubt if he can match last season's exceptional points total; I imagine he'll only be in the 170-190 range this time, which probably won't put him far ahead of the rest of the field. With Saliba likely to be out for a few months, after needing surgery on a troublesome back problem, Mosquera seems likely to be his regular replacement in the centre-back pairing, and at just 5.5 million, offers quite tempting value for some representation in Arsenal's formidable defence. Calafiori and White are also tempting at the moment at the same price, but both have been injury-prone in recent seasons, and have been strangely in-and-out of favour with their boss too; and they face competition for their starts from Timber (when he's fit again; should be less than a month?) and Hincapie - so, they both seem rather too risky to me for opening squad picks.

With unclear selection and significant rotation-risk, probably none of City's defenders should be in contention for selection just yet - even more so after they leaked like a sieve in the Community Shield game the other day! Once they find their feet under their new coach (I'm assuming they will...), Gvardiol will probably be worth having, especially if he starts regularly at left-back again. Nunes would probably have been my favoured City pick for the start of the season, but he picked up a muscle injury in the warm-up in Cardiff on Sunday, and might now be out for a few weeks.

Manchester United ended up with a pretty impressive defensive record last season; and of course, after Carrick took the reins in January, they were in fact the best team in the league over the remainder of the season. Shaw (very impressive last season, though linked with moves away this summer, as the club searched for a new left-back) and Maguire are currently the most popular picks from Old Trafford, though I'd be a little nervous about their age and injury record; Martinez (although he hasn't featured in pre-season, because of his late return from the World Cup) or Dalot would be my preferred options. It's a bummer, though, that Dorgu has been reclassified as a midfielder.

I think it will take Liverpool a while to adapt to Iraola's style of play, and that is likely to leave them often vulnerable on the counter-attack - so, their defence could at times suffer even worse than last year, at least in the early weeks of the season. Van Dijk is aging quickly, getting visibly slower and making far more mistakes over the last season or so; some of his defensive performance numbers were actually pretty terrible last year, but his FPL total was buoyed by an exceptional number of goals/assists, which isn't likely to be repeated (quite a few of them were very generously attributed to him in the first place; and improved defending and changes in the refereeing will probably mean we see far fewer of these melee goals this year). Jacquet looks promising, but it's a risk to go for new players in the initial squad; we should give him a few weeks to see how he beds in, and if he's getting a regular start. I suspect we'll want Kerkez, Frimpong, or Bradley at some point this season - but again, they're probably wait-and-see prospects at the moment. 

Likewise at Chelsea, James is too much of an injury-risk, Palestra looks promising but might not be assured of an immediate start, and everyone else is probably too much of a rotation risk. Colwill, if he's fully fit again, is probably the best option there at the moment. And while Villa should be comfortably in the top third again, they've rarely looked that consistent or convincing at the back under Emery; Cash, or perhaps Maatsen, if he's finally going to get a regular start, after Digne's departure, could be worth having at some point - but they're not ones to bet on in Gameweek 1; in fact, their early run of fixtures doesn't look all that amenable.

Palace and Bournemouth had very impressive defences last season, but they've again lost key members of their back-line - Lacroix to Chelsea and Senesi to Spurs - and there's a danger that they'll suffer a rocky transitional period under their new managers. With Palace, in particular, I fear there's a distinct chance they could slump towards the relegation zone this year. Daniel Munoz has been outstanding for them for the past couple of seasons, but is rumoured to be about to leave; FPL managers have just woken up to the fact that his left-wing counterpart Tyrick Mitchell returned almost identical points last year, but costs 1-million pounds less - so, he's proving a popular pick. But I think I'd avoid any Palace players for now. There are similar misgivings about Bournemouth, but I'm a bit more optimistic about the overall strength of their squad, and Marco Rose's compatibility with the existing style of play. Truffert is likely to be the best bet from them.

The Spurs defensive roster looks very impressive; but we just don't know what the preferred selection is going to be at the moment (unless they play a back-five, Senesi, Van Hecke, and Van de Ven can't all start regularly; even if they do play that system, Robertson and Davies are also in the mix as options for the left side of the central three), or how well it will work in practice. There are so many changes going on at that club that I think it will take a while for things to settle down, and we'd probably do better to steer clear of them for the first few weeks, at least.

I'm hoping Sunderland can kick on from their tremendously impressive debut season (although playing in the Europa League will be a drain on them, and we're likely to see a dip in their Premier League performances following midweek European games). Alderete, Ballard, Reinildo and Mukiele were all worth having in spells last year; the latter is my particular favourite, for his attacking threat down the right flank - and his tremendous long-throws. Leeds also started to look much more robust in the second-half of the season, although they suffered a lot of injuries at the back which has made Farke's selection preferences there unclear. Rodon, Gudmundsson, or Bogle could be tempting budget picks.

Brighton and Brentford are both too inconsistent to be very attractive defensive options for me. Kadioglu or De Cuyper would be tempting, if they weren't competing for the same starting slot; Brentford's Michael Kayode is probably one of the more promising 4.5-million-pound options. Nottingham Forest, under Oliver Glasner, could bounce back from their chaotic 25-26 season, making any of their previously formidable back-line appealing again (and presumably there'll be five of them to choose from now!); but with Glasner liking to progress his full-backs into the attack quite often, Aina and Williams are likely to be the best options.

Livramento and Hall are two of the best full-backs in the league; but they've both been linked with moves away in this transfer window. And with Newcastle having already lost two of their best players this summer, there's a danger they could suffer a complete collapse - at least for a while, until Jaissle gets a grip on things.

Everton and Fulham, although they have some good defenders, are quite likely to be in relegation trouble this season, I fear; so, I'm hesitant about going in for any of them at the start of the season. Tarkowski was one of the top performers for 'defcon' points last year; and Branthwaite, if fully fit again, might be almost as good for half a million less; but they might have a bit of a torrid time in the first couple of months, with only two 'soft' fixtures in the first eight gameweeks.

I'm wary of going for anyone from the promoted clubs at the start of the season. Even if they do get their shit together and start making a decent fight to stay up, history tells us that this usually takes at least a few weeks, if not a few months. And picking one of their defenders just because they're cheap usually turns out to be a dangerous false economy; a defender who takes a battering every week can end up with an average points return below 2 per week - which is absolutely worthless. You will at some point, probably sooner rather than later, need to draw on your bench; and if you're going to spend money on a player, you should be spending the money for something rather than nothing, for some actual worthwhile points-potential. I'm sceptical as to whether any of this year's promoted trio will manage to survive, and I suspect only Coventry have a fighting chance. Thus, their 4.0-million-pound defensive options, centre-back Bobby Thomas and full-backs Milan van Ewijk and Luke Thomas, might be justifiable picks for an ultra low-cost 'budget enabler' - though, for me, very risky ones. They've probably only achieved their rather high early ownership levels of 8%, 14.5%, and just under 8% respectively because they face Hull in Gameweek 2.

So, that's it for the defensive half of the equation....

I'll try to get around to a 'Part Two' on the more attacking options tomorrow.