The 'TEMPLATE' - who's in it, and who ought to be in it?

 

I dislike the notion of a 'template' in FPL. It is generally imagined to be a fairly rigid set, a small set - perhaps just 11 players - that everybody owns. In fact, of course, there are rarely more than 2 or 3 players with an ownership level above 50%. In times of 'most template', you typically find that most reasonably sensible managers have 5 or 6 players in common, occasionally even 7 or 8 - but rarely any more than that. 

And, crucially, though naive FPL managers easily convince themselves, from having noticed so many 'similar teams', that these are the same 6, 7, 8 players owned by everyone, this is almost never the case. What you see is that most good managers have 6, 7, 8 players from a common pool of perhaps 25-30 most outstanding picks at any given time.

This season may be a little unusual so far, in that we have had quite a few players who are really making a case to be considered 'essential' (most of the time, it's no more than 2 or 3, and occasionally ZERO...), and we've generally had 9 or 10 players with an ownership above 30% - which is very high (again, we don't often see quite that many players so widely owned).

So, there is a slightly narrower template than usual at the moment; but it's not a straitjacket - there is still a lot of scope for differentiation.

And the problem with the template - as I've pointed out before in relation to copying the teams of the league leaders - is that it's an aggregate of what's worked so far, not a shrewd prediction of what's going to work best from now on. Many of the most popular picks have exhausted their rich vein of form - and are waiting to be moved out of squads. And many.... were sentimental, over-optimistic, misguided selections in the first place.

So, what does 'THE TEMPLATE' look like at the moment? And what should it really look like??

David Raya and Konstantinos Tzolakis are leading the goalkeeper rankings at the moment, but only fairly narrowly; and they have both benefitted from a penalty save (which gives a rather over-generous 5 additional FPL points, and usually earns an extra bonus point or two as well!), which is a once-or-twice-a-season freak (and Raya's penalty was clearly wrongly awarded!), and should really be discounted from a fair comparative assessment. Hence, Bart Verbruggen is actually the best keeper at the moment. 

Raya might outscore Verbruggen over the season, if he can rack up a huge number of clean sheets again, as he did last year (although Arsenal are so far looking much less cohesive than they did last season, and don't seem likely to be such a dominant force); but because of the huge price differential, he really needs to score 30-35% more points than Verbruggen (and the other 4.5-million-pound keepers), and I am very confident that that is not going to happen. I've said a number of times over the past couple of seasons that Raya has become the classic instance of that most basic of FPL errors, imagining that the 'best player' in a given position must necessarily be the best FPL pick. In fact, that is such a dangerous - and widespread - naivety that I have identified it as one of the key markers of a bad FPL manager.

Though a case can of course be made for Tzolakis (though you fear that Hull's hot start may be losing momentum, and a promoted side - however robust and plucky - is always likely to take a bit of a pasting from the stronger clubs), and Kelleher and Suzuki are also looking promising, Jamie Trafford, a solid 4th in the goalkeeper rankings so far, has the advantage of playing behind a very capable Leeds defence, and enjoys an exceptionally kind rotation with Verbruggen (you don't have to play either of them against a 'top four' side until January!); in fact, an optimal rotation of that pair has so far yielded 48 points - comfortably more than Raya!! And yet.... Jamie Trafford is owned by less than 6% in FPL (people were perhaps put off by his slightly high 5.0-million price-tag, and by the fact that he hadn't played a full season in the EPL before; they should be reconsidering now).

But the goalkeeper category contains some other anomalies too. Pickford is close to 10%-owned, but hasn't really looked worth it so far (people are backing him because he's consistently been one of the best - if not the best - FPL keepers for the last few seasons; but this year there are clearly better options, and, for me, he is priced-out at 5.5-million; even if he does top the rankings again, it won't be by enough of a margin to justify paying all that extra money for him; at 5.0-million he'd be a very compelling contender, but at 5.5-million - no). Lammens and Donnarumma are also up close to 10%, presumably just because of club loyalty (it's ridiculous that they are more popular picks than the obviously superior Kelleher and Trafford). 

Dubravka and Kinsky are above 15%. Dubravka is obviously just a cost-cutting measure (he's probably the best 4.0-million-pound keeper, but isn't anywhere near to getting a start); and that sort of pick is a dangerous, usually self-harming false economy. Kinsky might have been picked initially just because he paired with Dubravka (if he gets injured or dropped, at least you have automatic back-up from his deputy at the club); and more recently, some potentially softer fixtures for Spurs have encouraged some people to gamble on more of their players. But it is a gamble that doesn't seem justified: Spurs are still not playing well, and Kinsky has been in conspicuously poor form so far. This pair are part of the 'template' pool - but they shouldn't be.

So, among the goalkeepers, Raya is a misguided 'template' inclusion; and Kinsky/Dubravka is looking like an epic foot-shooting. Meanwhile, Trafford is being foolishly overlooked. Happily, Verbruggen's worth has been fairly widely recognised.

In defence, Riccardo Calafiori and Maxim De Cuyper are justifiably part of the 'template', and pretty close to essential - thus far. Curiously, although the Belgian has the higher points total so far, he's still well behind Calafiori in ownership, at barely 40% compared to 54%. This can perhaps be explained by Arsenal's reputation, consolidated in their remarkable season last year, as a uniquely dominant defensive powerhouse; but so far this season, Brighton have looked at least as good, if not a little better. However, I still have the misgiving that Brighton have freakishly over-performed thus far (helped by the fact that they have mostly played very weak teams so far; and even two of the better teams they faced, Villa in GW1 and Arsenal in GW5, completely failed to show up in those games!), and with a potentially tough little run of fixtures from GW8 to GW11, I would expect returns for their players to tail off a bit. De Cuyper, in fact, has massively exceeded any reasonable expectation for his returns from this opening sequence of fixtures, and it actually wouldn't have been too unreasonable to hold off acquiring him - if you hadn't (as I'd recommended) included him in your initial squad.

There are, however, 3 other defenders with ownership currently above 20% who can also be considered 'template' - but with much less reason: Josko Gvardiol, Gabriel, and Lewis Hall. I might add Marc Guehi, Ezri Konsa (both near 18%), and Virgil Van Dijk (above 15%) to that list too. Everton's relentless 'defcon' monster James Tarkowski, who's actually now the third highest-returning defender, having edged ahead of Calafiori this week, but still only the sixth most-owned (at 18.5%), is really the only one of this 'fringe group' of popular picks who properly ought to be considered a must-have 'template' pick at the moment.

Gabriel, as I explained at the start of the season, is just priced-out this year: he obviously wasn't going to repeat the huge returns he got last season, and even if he had, he wouldn't have had a clear enough advantage over his Arsenal teammates, let alone the whole of the rest of the defender category, to justify that ridiculous 8-million-pound asking-price. As with David Raya, even if he were the top points-producer in his position, he still wouldn't be a good FPL pick because of this extreme pricing. He'd really need to be the top defender by some distance to justify selection; and he's had a fairly ho-hum season so far, is barely scraping into the Top 10 defenders - miles behind De Cuyper, Tarkowski, and Calafiori.

Gvardiol has been buoyed by a run of assists; but we were just reminded this weekend that he's still not guaranteed an invariable start - possibly sharing minutes with Guehi in central defence and O'Reilly at left-back. There are similar misgivings about Guehi, who's returned fairly good points so far, but has actually looked in rather poor form in the last few games. These are players who've been widely bought because of their performances in the past, or because of the mystique of City; but City's defensive form early in the season just hasn't looked good enough to make them preferable picks over Arsenal or Brighton players.

Dangerous as Lewis Hall can be going forward, Newcastle's form is so flakey at the moment that he looks likely to concede far too many goals to be a reliable FPL defensive asset. Ezri Konsa was a big gamble that's kind of paying off (it wasn't at all clear when he arrived at his new club that he would get an immediate start, or an invariable one; and but for the fortuitously-timed injury to Christhian Mosquera, he might not have...). But I still don't think Arsenal are looking dominant enough yet this season to be doubled-up on their defence, and I don't like limiting my options to choose others of their players further forward (no-one else is really looking worth having at the moment; but that may change); and I'm not convinced Konsa is the best defensive option at 4.5-million (particularly given that he's almost certain to return to the bench once Saliba's fit again). And Van Dijk's selection by anyone was pure sentiment: he didn't have a great year last year (his good FPL returns were very anomalous, and more than a bit lucky, not at all an accurate reflection of his actual form), he's aging out and slowing down; and Liverpool were bound to face problems bouncing back from their fairly disastrous second year under Slot, and getting used to a very different new style of play under Iraola. Paying 6.5-million for any defender is tough to justify; paying it for one who can't even break into the Top 20 is absurd.

This year, Hull, Leeds, and Brighton have surprised everyone with how consistently impressive their defences have been. Hull's back-line were all priced at just 4.0-million (such a bargain, and they were so good in the opening games - it really was worth considering doubling-up on them!), Leeds's men all at 4.5, and Brighton's mostly at 4.5 or 5.0. Everton's defence also offer some very reasonably-priced alternatives/additions to Tarkowski. This is where the template breaks down: there's really not much to choose between most of these players, and so there's a broad spread of possible selections among them, and only Hull's Femi Ajayi has climbed above 10% ownership. (Strangely, Coventry's Bobby Thomas and Ipswich's Issa Diop were two of the most popular 4.0 defender picks at the start of the season, and although their teams rapidly proved to be extremely vulnerable defensively, many owners have stuck with them - presumably as rarely-used 5th-choice options - keeping their ownership level up close to 10%.)  These bargain options have looked so good so far that, really, everyone should have at least 2, perhaps even 3 of these cheaper players from Hull and Leeds - to free up more budget to spend in midfield. 

But because there's less consensus over these picks, the most popular 'template' picks are dominated instead by slightly eccentric 'fringe' options for the first 2 or 3 slots in defence. Nobody should have Gabriel, Konsa, Guehi, Hall, Van Dijk; everybody should have Bogle (or Justin/Gudmundsson/Muharemovic) and Ajayi (or Mendy/Egan/Giles).

And Dunk, Kadioglu, and - most especially - Luka Vuskovic (currently the 2nd highest scoring defender!) are presumably being spurned only because there are so many other Brighton players vying for our attention at the moment (everybody wants Gross, everybody wants De Cuyper, an awful lot want Verbruggen, quite a few covet Kostoulas...).

Thus, in the defender category, I would say that Gabriel, Konsa, Guehi, Hall, and - especially - Van Dijk are ridiculously over-owned; but Bogle, Vuskovic, and any of the Hull back-line are shamefully under-owned. Calafiori, De Cuyper, and Tarkowski deservedly enjoy 'template' standing.

In midfield, only Pascal Gross has clearly staked a claim to being considered 'essential'. He's started every game (which might have seemed doubtful before the start of the season, because of his age; that made me hold off trying him out initially), he's on most of the set-pieces, and he's on penalties again for them (again, surprisingly, given that they have so many other potential penalty-takers); he's been consistently excellent for Brighton so far - and is way out in front of the other midfielders after 7 games.

It is another odd little aberration that Morgan Rogers actually has a few percent higher ownership than Gross! Chelsea started so hot that a lot of people were tempted to go for a treble-up on Rogers, Palmer, and Joao Pedro. I counselled at the time that this was probably unwise, and also ventured that if only taking one of their midfielders, Cole Palmer should probably get the nod, because he has historically been much more consistent than Rogers, and has the theoretical advantage of taking the penalties. (He is also more central to their creative play, and so should be considerably more likely to earn assists. I think he's been very unlucky so far: he's set up great chances for Rogers, Joao Pedro, and Neto, which his teammates have spurned, had quite a few very near-misses of his own, and he hasn't yet had a single penalty - surely must be due one soon!) Pedro Neto probably shouldn't be overlooked either. The fact that Chelsea have 3 strong contenders to choose from in their midfield, and no obvious or overwhelming distinction between them... should mean that none of them are such massively popular picks that they muscle their way into the 'template'. Rogers doesn't clearly deserve to be in that position of eminence; and I suspect he won't remain there for long.

It's a similar story at City, where Rayan Cherki, Antoine Semenyo (alas, now ruled out with a medium-term injury), Illiman Ndiaye, Phil Foden, and the just-back-from-injury Jeremy Doku 'split the vote' as to which of them you should choose (and cause some anxiety about limited minutes/unexpected rotations). Again, there's a great overlooked option here in Enzo Fernandez, who seems to be such a Maresca favourite that he will start almost every game, and might well produce just as many attacking contributions as his more eye-catching teammates. So far, only Cherki is up at the top of the most-owned board, with 37.5%; and that might soon start to collapse, after he was dropped from last Saturday's game. 

The more major oddity in the FPL midfield, though, is the continuing prominence of Bruno Fernandes - who, until this weekend, was still above 30% ownership. I said at the start of the season that, as with Gabriel, he couldn't possibly justify his 12-million-pound price-tag even if he were again the top returner in his position (which didn't seem likely). His insane initial ownership level of around 45% could only be explained by sentiment, since cold mathematical logic mandated his omission. And you suspect that his ownership now only remains so high, after weeks of producing nothing, because of a combination of stubborn optimism from those sentimentalists.... with maybe a substantial admixture of people who've just got disillusioned and already quit the game!!

Another Manchester United man whose ownership has held up rather stronger than deserved is Bryan Mbeumo, still a little above 20%; a goal this weekend has edged him back very slightly ahead of the pack, but he's really no better than Rogers, Palmer, Saka, Semenyo or any of the other City midfield options, or Hull's recently hot winger Mohammed Belloumi. He's constantly getting shunted to and fro between centre-forward (a position he doesn't really relish) and the wing, is missing loads of good chances, and just doesn't look very happy in his football at the moment. He's a player I like a lot, but he has performed well below expectations at United so far, and I don't yet see signs of that changing.

It's odd that Saka (17%) and Odegaard (nearly 19%) are still so popular; they did look very hot at the start of the season, but they and Arsenal seem to have gone off the boil in the last few games, and a major sell-off is getting under way. But given their obvious potential, and the positive signs we saw from them in some of the early games, it's not so unreasonable to keep the faith in them awhile. Declan Rice's 11.1% ownership rate is completely unfathomable! That must be just pure sentiment again, an undue reverence for what he produced last season (without giving thought to the fact that the majority of that output came from supplying the ammunition for the trademark melee set-pieces which produced so many of their goals last year, but were obviously not going to be nearly so much of a thing this time around). Dominik Szoboszlai (7th most owned with nearly 20%) is a player that I love; but, alas, while playing in a central pivot role, he's just not likely to produce enough points to make him an interesting acquisition in FPL. Likewise, I think Morgan Gibbs-White is a fantastic player (11.5% owned, and it was more until his recent injury), but... things just haven't really clicked for him or Forest yet; and even if they had, it's going to be very difficult for him to justify his 8-million tag this year.

Kevin Schade (though ruled out with a short-term injury at the moment), Brentford's free-scoring forward-classified-as-a-midfielder, really ought to be far more popular; his ownership peaked at around 17% - which, for the 4th best midfield points-producer at the time, is crazily low. Bournemouth's Marcus Tavernier - the 3rd highest points-producer but the 15th most-owned! - is also shamefully under-represented in FPL selections. People are being very slow to cotton on to Villa's Johan Manzambi (although a slight worry about a calf-strain might be holding some folks back from buying him this week). Cody Gakpo was looking Liverpool's most dangerous attacking player, but suffered quite a sell-off after he suffered an ankle knock playing for Holland a couple of weeks back; his peak ownership was only around 12.5%, low for someone who'd been in such sharp form; and for a minor injury like that, people really could have hung on to him on the bench for a week or two.

Among the midfielders, then, I feel that Rogers, while a justifiable pick, is significantly over-owned, while Bruno Fernandes should not be in anyone's squad at his price-point, and Saka, Odegaard, Mbeumo, Szoboszlai, and Rice are probably way over-owned. 

Schade, Manzambi, Tavernier, and Gakpo, on the other hand, are disgracefully under-owned. But Gross and perhaps Cherki are the only players who've earned 'template' status so far.

Up front, things are rather more straightforward. Erling Haaland has enjoyed his traditional white-hot start to the season, and it has seemed pretty much impossible to do without him. Well, except that Joao Pedro and Alexander Isak have also looked in very good form - possibly even good enough to rival Haaland all season and sneak the Golden Boot out of his clutches, certainly good enough to present a reasonable cheaper alternative to him that would allow you to spread a lot of extra money around the squad. The reason why that probably hasn't been working out so far is that few of the high-priced players (Fernandes, Saka, Mbeumo...., Gabriel, Van Dijk....) have been producing much, while there have been some great contributions from a lot of much cheaper players; so, thus far, there's really been no budget pressure, no opportunity to improve returns by spending big in other areas of the pitch! 

Moreover, most no-Haaland teams I've seen seem to be taking either Joao Pedro or Isak; I think you really need to have both - none of the other forwards are close to their potential. People have been more sceptical about Isak because of Liverpool's unconvincing team form so far = but he is basically neck-and-neck with Joao Pedro. Some managers have gone for all three; but I think that's a rash use of budget - although it might become a viable option if we continue to get few big contributions from midfield. At the moment, though, Palmer, Rogers, Mbeumo, Cunha, Cherki (and Semenyo, though now injured; and Doku and Ndiaye), and Gross and Tavernier and Schade and Manzambi and Belloumi... are all threatening to outscore Isak, mostly for a lot less money.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin has been by far the most popular 3rd-forward pick early in the season, with an ownership of around 23.5%. However, Charalampos Kostoulas, Nico Jackson, and Evanilson have also recently been attracting some attention as possible alternatives.

So, in the forward-line, Haaland and Joao Pedro have been almost universally adopted as 'essential' in the early part of the season, with Calvert-Lewin being the most popular third-seat choice - but possibly about to be displaced by other claimants. Alexander Isak is so far extremely under-owned, a strong alternative to Joao Pedro (or Haaland?!).

The supposed 'TEMPLATE' is not just 10 or 15 players; it's currently a pool of at least 35 'most popular' players that the vast majority of selections are drawn from. And over a third of those most popular choices at the moment are very bad picks.