It is is easy to become disheartened if you get your FPL season off to a particularly unlucky start... and you may even be tempted to quit the game entirely just a week or two in....
And you may be right to do so!
In my extensive skimming of the top FPL performers over the past 4 or 5 years or so, I have discovered... that the Global Champions - and most, if not all, of those who finish the year in the top few 1,000s or 10s of 1,000s - were invariably inside the top 500,000 or so (and usually, in fact, inside the top 100,000 or 200,000) by the end of GW5.
And in order to reach the top half million by then, you really can't afford to be much outside the top 2.5 or 3 million after GW1....
Hence - if you entertain grandiose dreams of perhaps topping the global rankings at season's end, or at least of cracking the top 10,000 or 20,000 - at least two-thirds of FPL players are already shit out of luck as far as that ambition is concerned; and in another four or five weeks, the game will probably be as good as over for nearly 95% of players.
Depressing, yes.
Starting quick out of the blocks is fairly crucial to attaining a really good overall finish; while a poor opening week can be calamitous.
And it is frighteningly easy to do that badly in the opening week. You don't have to make terrible choices; you just have to suffer a little bit of bad luck.
If, for example, you went with Isak, Watkins, and Muniz up front (an entirely justifiable set of selections) rather than Haaland, Havertz and Wood, you'd be looking at a sizeable points deficit just on those three picks alone. And even if you had Salah in midfield (god help you if you didn't....; in fact, god help you if you didn't make him captain!), if you'd gone for, say, Palmer, Bowen, Eze and Gordon as your other 4 choices (again, entirely sensible and defensible picks) rather than Saka, Jota, Mbeumo and Semenyo.... well, again, Fate has just crapped on you from a great height. (As I pointed out the other day, Palmer, Eze, and Gordon were denied the possibility of much higher scores by some terrible refereeing; so, it really is appalling luck that those players didn't produce more for you.)
This week's 'global average' score of 57 leaves you well outside the top 4,000,000. Even 10 points above that - which I usually regard as a good benchmark for a reasonably successful week (particularly when the global average is relatively low) - barely gets you into the top 2,000,000.
So, most of us will have to focus on different goals for this year. The BIG ONE has already got away.....
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