Dilemmas of the week - GW2

Every week, we need to take a long hard look at our squad, and ask ourselves if we want to make any changes....

And even if we do see a pressing case for a change here or there, we then need to weigh that against the possible advantage of saving our transfer - 'rolling' it over to use in a future week. This option achieves greater tactical complexity this season with the new rule that allows us to save up as many as 5 Free Transfers to use at one time. If we ever manage to do that, it would in effect be a 'mini Wildcard', enabling us to conduct a major squad overhaul in one fell swoop (particularly useful as there are a handful of 'premium' players who cost so much more than everyone else that you can't conveniently move them in and out of your squad without making multiple other changes as well).

Then, of course, occasionally multiple changes may seem so inescapable that we have to consider whether it's worth spending points on 1 or 2 extra transfers (a tactic which obviously deserves a whole post of its own one day).

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 2?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Amazingly, NO. 

Last season, we saw a plethora of injuries just ahead of the first kick-off, and on the opening weekend, and over the subsequent two weeks of training. But this year - thank heavens - so far, nothing serious.  Saka looked to have twisted his right knee quite badly; but there's no word of any problem for him about that yet, so it looks like he's OK (the lad does seem to be superhumanly resilient to injuries that would sideline anyone else for a month or two!). And Porro picked up a knock in Monday night's game which has him listed as 'doubtful' for this weekend; but my guess is that he'll be able to play - and if he is isn't, it looks like only a one-week problem (and you don't waste transfers moving people in and out of the squad for short-term issues like that; you should just be able to leave him on the bench for a week or two).  Rodri looks like he might be out for a while with a hamstring problem (but we knew that before the GW1 deadline; and he's not likely to have been in many people's squads anyway).  Brighton's new winger Minteh got a bad concussion towards the end of the first half, but will probably be OK again for the weekend; and he's only in a tiny percentage of FPL squads. Mateta also appeared to be struggling from a knock when he went off on Saturday, but is not reported as an injury problem.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Barco is the main worry here. His ownership had swelled to nearly 24% before the first deadline, on the back of expectations that he would be Brighton's first choice at left-back as long as Estupinan was still unfit - but, as it turned out, Hurzeler preferred Hinshelwood, and even though he struggled somewhat against Harrison and McNeil early on (they became less of a threat after Young's sending-off), Barco didn't even get any minutes off the bench. If you gambled on Barco, you might hang tough for another week or two, to see if Hurzeler gives him a chance; but the danger with an 'over-owned' player like this is that disillusion among his managers may set in fast, triggering a big sell-off and price-drop - which is not something you want to suffer, especially this early in the season when budget is so tight.

Quansah, owned by around 5%, presents a similar problem, after his brutal half-time substitution by Arne Slot - which I fear will have dented his confidence and may negatively affect his next few performances, even if he does get more starts.  He remains tempting, I think, because he's more of a known quantity than Barco: he not only played well in pre-season, but got 13 starts under his belt in the EPL last year. And he's the cheapest route into the Liverpool defence, who do look likely to be a lot less leaky under the Slot system, and are blessed with a particularly kind run of early fixtures this year. Since Konate has notorious injury and stamina problems, and there is no other cover in that position (apart from Joe Gomez, who always looks a bit of a liability at centre-back to me), Quansah will almost certainly get another chance fairly soon (if not this week), so is probably worth continuing to gamble on. [But, oh damn, just after I'd written this yesterday, I saw that Quansah was one of the first round of price-drops on Tuesday night - already down to 4.4.]

And Schar, of course, is suspended - for at least this week (even if an appeal goes well for him), probably three.  A three-week absence would be a problem for his owners: it's really on that cusp of not wanting to carry dead wood on your bench for that long, but it's still quite an extravagant use of precious transfers....

Trippier and Toney look to have been dropped pending the conclusion of transfer discussions. They would both have been very dubious picks at this stage anyway; but if you have them, you need to reconsider. Trippier looks to be headed overseas, so his FPL price is likely to crash, and it would be best to move him out in a hurry. There is a chance that Toney will move to another Premier League club, so his owners might want to hang on another week or two in hopes of that (although that's a bit risky; most of the domestic interest in him seems to have dried up, and my bet would be that he too will depart for the Saudi League).

Calafiori, as expected, wasn't considered quite 'ready' for a starting place at Arsenal yet; but he did at least get some token minutes off the bench near the end - which suggests he's not far away. However, at 6 million, he's a very expensive gamble. We know Arteta has a soft spot for Zinchenko's effectiveness slotting into midfield; and he's playing so well at the moment, he looks unlikely to be dropped - until he gets injured (which, the historical record would suggest, will be soon...). But with Timber also trying to stake a claim to more first-team minutes, many fear that Calafiori in his debut season is unlikely to become as nailed as the dependable troika of White-Saliba-Gabriel. If you have him, I'd probably stick with him a bit longer, to see if he gets his chance. But it's a bold risk to take: Are you feeling lucky today, punk?

Walker - finally starting to show some signs of aging last year, and never one of Pep's big favourites anyway: I've said before that I couldn't see him getting nearly as many starts this year as he did last; and after Rico Lewis's near 'Man of the Match' performance on Saturday, it's becoming harder to envision him getting any starts at all in the new future.

Gakpo, Nunez??  Did anyone really think they were going to start?!  If you did, you deserve your nul points!

Sancho??? Did anyone expect him to start?? (Or to be any good, if he did - given his unhappy history at Man Utd?  That boy really needs to get another loan deal sorted out.)

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Remarkably, NO. Usually, there are a few players who perform so badly in the opening game - or look very obviously out of sympathy with a new tactical system, or uncomfortable with the personality of a new coach - that we have to immediately consider offloading them. But this year - for the first time in ages - no-one springs to mind....

Well, except Rashford (but really, who are these 5% of managers who chose him for the start of the season???), or maybe Garnacho....?  The young Argentinian blows too hot-and-cold for me, in a United team that is still struggling to find any balance and consistency: his Fantasy output is highly dependent on who else is around him (I have hopes that he might forge a fruitful cooperation with Zirkzee, but that will take some time), and on whether he's played on the left or the right (much more dangerous on the right).

Solanke may have 'disappointed' on his first run-out for Spurs, and will obviously need a little time to settle in there - but there's no reason to drop him, if you have him. (Though he wouldn't have been a 'Top 3' striker pick for me anyway....)

And Sanchez and Flekken set off enough alarm-bells that they must be considered vulnerable to possible replacement - but probably not for a few more weeks at least.

There is obviously no reason to give up on the likes of Watkins, Palmer, De Bruyne, Foden, Odegaard, Gordon, Diaz, Eze or Nkunku after one 'blank' week.....

But Son...?  I've always been hesistant to include him because he goes through such long spells of 'blanking'. And he looked very anonymous in Monday night's game. If you were initially torn between him and one of the other 9 or 10-million-pound options,.... I'd consider a switch.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Everyone should really have had Salah and Jota already; they, and the inevitable Haaland, all performed much as expected - reassuring their FPL managers that they are sound choices. But if you made the decision to go without one of these at the start of the year, that is a fundamental long-term tactical choice for the season - you shouldn't be flip-flopping on it after one game.

People are probably getting over-excited about Havertz after his scoring start against Wolves. He's still likely to face some rotation during the season, he's more a 'false 9' than a primary goalscorer at the moment, and he'll probably get pulled out of the forward line altogether if Arteta manages to sign an outright striker in the next 10 days.  Havertz is a decent forward choice for now; but I don't see him continuing to be all season.... and there are probably slightly better options around his price-point anyway.

Saka - and Arsenal - started very brightly. My reservation about him - especially at such a high price point this time - is that Arteta is increasingly requiring a more disciplined, 'controlling' role from him that doesn't allow him to break into the box nearly as often in most games. Last season, the great majority of his attacking contributions came in only a dozen or so games, split into two insanely hot spells, one early in the season and one straight after the winter break. If he's starting this year the same way he did last, he probably is worth getting for now; but I still have doubts about him as a season-hold. (And he was limping heavily at the end of the Wolves game, so it might be worth waiting a little longer to make a decision on whether to get him in.)

Vardy, at his age, can't be expected to repeat the heroics of his heyday 7 or 8 years ago, but he has still got the knack for goals. He's probably going to have heavily managed minutes this year - but could still be a very tempting pick for a cheap third forward.

Porro is now an injury doubt for this week. And, as with Havertz, I think FPL managers are probably getting over-excited about one goal....  I said a few weeks back that I thought Porro was a very dubious pick for this season, because although he'll be very good (quite possibly a 'Top 10' defender.... although not, I think, 'Top 5', which is really what you want, especially for your more expensive picks), his potential for attacking contributions is grossly overestimated. Now, it often happens that when a defender gets a goal, they go and get another one only a week or two later.... and, if you're very lucky, perhaps even a third within the space of a month or so...  But that will be it: defenders almost never score more than 2 or 3 goals a season; and even those who've fairly consistently delivered 2 or 3 will often have seasons where they get 1 or 0...  So, piling in for a defender who's just scored might reward you over the next month - but it's not likely to do much for your season overall. (And, after this week's home game against Everton, Spurs face a bit of a rocky cluster of fixtures, so.... I'd pass on Porro here.)

Kovacic and Lewis - are tempting because, for City players, they are fairly low-priced, as they weren't expected to be starters. And both had absolute stormers in the opening game. However, as a central midfielder, Kovacic is very unlikely to get regular attacking contributions (a better keeper than Sanchez might have stopped his shot on Sunday); and he will probably be dropped as soon as Rodri is available again. And.... City face a couple of very tough fixtures in GWs 5 & 6. Rico Lewis, on the other hand - although the mind of Pep is unfathomable, and his penchant for 'Roulette' an inevitable hazard - does look to have staked a claim to a regular start; and he is really the only affordable route into that inviting City defence. (Some people might have already taken him before the season began as a speculative pick, thinking that he might be worth having whenever he did get a run of starts.... They are now very happy campers!)  My mate Geordie Adam at FourFourTwo - although he explicitly disclaims recommending him for FPL yet - has just made a very compelling case for Lewis.

Mazraoui and Zirkzee (and possibly De Ligt too, once he's settled in) look like they might be the best transfers of the summer. But I'd be hesistant to bring in anyone from Manchester United while the team is still struggling for balance and consistency. I don't think Ten Hag is the right coach for that club, and I can't really see them doing any better than a Europa League place under him...

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!