Thursday, March 6, 2025

The main PROBLEM with FPL

A placard with the words 'BIG PROBLEM' in bold red all-caps lettering, on a white background


People want to measure their success in the game of Fantasy Premier League. But there is no reliable gauge of your success


Your points total is primarily a measure of how lucky you've been.


Your rank is primarily a measure of how lucky everyone else has been, in relation to you.


The aim of the game should be to exercise and develop your skill in making the best squad selections (and 'chip strategy' decisions, etc.). But your points returns are not an accurate reflection of your skill and good judgement: they depend very largely on pure luck. (And, as I pointed out the other day, with the help of Youtube science educator Derek Muller, the effect of even small amounts of luck on final outcomes can be HUGE...) Very bad FPL managers can sometimes do extraordinarily well. Very good FPL managers can often fare very badly.... It is a cruel and unjust game.


We need to find other ways of gauging our progress in the game of FPL, other ways of taking satisfaction in it.

Perhaps a useful place to start is..... focusing less on how good you think you are, and concentrating instead on pursuing constant improvement.

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