Dilemmas of the Week - GW29

Hmm, after a few weeks of the Napoleonic battlefield.... it seems as if the rate of injuries is finally slowing up a bit: not such a terrible week this week! (Although some problems emerging from the midweek European games probably haven't been publicly acknowledged yet...)

I'm trying to streamline these weekly round-ups, as they had been getting dangerously over-long. I'm aiming to confine myself to just the injuries to players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL. [I currently find the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information - go check that out for more comprehensive coverage.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 29?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

It looks like Trent Alexander-Arnold is the only high-owned player (in just over 30% of squads) to be ruled out this time, after having to come off in the defeat to PSG on Tuesday with an ankle injury; Arne Slot now thinks he'll be out until May.

Leny Yoro also picked up a foot injury and had to be withdrawn against Arsenal last weekend, but is only expected to be out for two or three weeks.

And Wolves's Zimbabwean midfielder Marshall Munetsi, a winter-window signing from Reims, was feeling a problem and had to come off at half-time against Everton last week; however, Vitor Pereira seems optimistic he could feature again this week. (This one might seem to be pushing the definitional limits of my 'relevant to FPL' threshold, but the big guy has made quite an impression since his introduction, with a goal and an assist in just three starts. Because nobody had any idea who he was, he was only priced at 5 million. And he'd be facing top punchbags Southampton this week, so.... there is a fair amount of interest in whether he might be available.)

Raheem Sterling, of course, is ineligible to appear for Arsenal against his parent club, Chelsea - though that is probably of zero relevance to FPL managers.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

No new bans this week (um, for maybe the first time this season?): but Will Hughes, Sasa Lukic, Anthony Gordon, Patrick Dorgu, and Matheus Cunha are still serving extended suspensions.

And, of course, the Aston Villa v Liverpool and Newcastle v Crystal Palace games have been moved because of the League Cup Final between Liverpool and Newcastle on Sunday. (Villa v Liverpool was already played - early - in Gameweek 25; and Newcastle v Palace has been rescheduled in Gameweek 32.)  Potentially missing players from FOUR teams is a bit of a speed-bump: but we've known for quite a while that these were going to be the affected teams (and I really don't see why anybody would have had any Villa players anyway...), so it should have been easy enough to move excess players from these sides out over the last few weeks, or saved up the Free Transfers to do so now (while leaving a few of the highest-priced on the bench for the week, to avoid losing money on them to the dreaded 'transfer tax' with a sell-and-buy-back). As I argued in detail a couple of days ago, there is absolutely no reason to be using the Free Hit chip this week (but it seems well over 300,000 people - so far - are doing so anyway!).

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Well, cause for not buying anyway.... Manchester City last week were, I thought, much improved; but they still couldn't mount any sort of attacking threat, and quite deservedly - if only very narrowly - lost the game. I really can't see any grounds for rising confidence in their prospects, especially with their not-particularly-easy fixture run to the end of the season. Because Salah and so many others are missing this weekend, there is a rush of enthusiasm among The Sheep - fuelled, as so often, by the FPL website's own inane (probaby AI??) pundit, The Scout - to get Haaland back (and make him captain - WTF??), if only for this one gameweek. Yes, he's good enough to produce a big week at any time. But it helps a lot when the team behind him is firing on something like all cylinders, and at the moment it's plainly not. And Brighton have been rediscovering their mojo again over the past few weeks; they must surely be favourites - if only by a little - in this fixture. Nobody seems to be making an argument for getting in Foden or DeBruyne, or Savinho or Doku, for this one; without those guys on top of their game, Big Erling isn't likely to do much.

The Sheep are starting to bolt away from Cole Palmer after his penalty 'miss' last week as well - although not in such great numbers as I would have expected, so far: only about 300,000 deserting him this week, which still leaves him with nearly 55% ownership. I think there's still a case for hanging on to him a little longer - if only because there aren't too many obvious alternatives showing themselves just at the moment.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Rashford and Asensio impressed in Europe again, and a lot of people (including Thomas Tuchel?) are perhaps getting a bit overexcited about that. It's worth remembering that was only against Club Brugge, probably the weakest team to make it into the last 16 of the Champions League. And a 10-man Brugge at that, after they'd unluckily had a defender sent off in the opening minutes (I've watched that replay half a dozen times at least, and I still can't see any contact on Watkins). In that context, it was not, I think, a super-impressive performance - by Villa generally, or by these two players. And they've got a Blank Gameweek this week, anyway.

As for the goddamned AssMan.... well, not a lot of 'excitement' this week, as all the fixtures are quite closely matched and hard to call, and none of them seem obviously likely to result in a comfortable win, with a big goal margin - even the relegation teams are drawn against fairly weak teams (or in Ipswich's case, a less prolific - though still very good - team). And there are no 'table-bonus' points available (unless you fancy Ipswich to pull off a huge upset against visiting Forest!); Spurs and Brighton are only 4 places behind their opponents this week, alas - otherwise, they would have been prime contenders. If you're stuck with that chip in play this week, I would say Spurs, Wolves, or Bournemouth are the best bets for scoring a few goals.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

DON'T FORGET The Boycott; the dratted new 'Assistant Manager' chip is in play now - and I am urging everyone to please consider quitting the game, or at least refusing to use this silly chip. 

And if you can't bring yourself to do either of those things, please do criticise the Assistant Manager chip as vigorously as possible on any relevant social media channels you use, raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

A little bit of Zen (33)

“There is only one way to happiness, and that is to cease worrying about things that are beyond the power of our will.”

Epictetus

To Free Hit, or not to....?

 

A lot of people seem to be pondering resorting to their Free Hit chip this week. Is that a good idea?

NO.

1)  You keep your Free Hit (and the second WildCard) in reserve for as long as possible, in case you might need it to deal with an unexpected emergency like a sudden multiple injury/suspension crisis (can happen at any time, but becomes more likely as the season wears on) or a last-minute postponement (of more than one game - because there are other ways of dealing with a loss of only 4, 5, 6 players...).

2)  If you're lucky enough to escape any such unexpected crises, the best use for the Free Hit - which most people plan for - is to deal with the expected crisis of a 'big' Blank Gameweek. (However, this year there is no longer a really big blank, since the FA Cup Quarter-Finals - which could potentially wipe out up to 8 EPL fixtures - no longer clash with the EPL schedule. And the newly introduced facility to store up to 5 Free Transfers also gives you much more flexibility in addressing occasional fixture speed-bumps. Hence, for many people, it might be possible to get around even Gameweek 34 - the FA Semi-Final weekend, when 3 or 4 EPL matches could be missing, and hence the occasion when most FPL managers have provisionally planned to use their FH chip - without needing the Free Hit.)

3)  If you find you don't need the Free Hit for a Blank Gameweek, or any less expected emergency, there can also be a case for using it to 'optimise' a squad for a Double Gameweek. (Indeed, many managers in the past have asserted that this is a preferable approach to using it on a Blank Gameweek; but that is a perverse delusion.)  However, as with the Blank Gameweeks, there are no longer any really 'big' Double Gameweeks in the calendar; and any Double that is 'big' enough to be worth optimising the entire squad with doubling players is more worth playing the Bench Boost on - so, the better strategy is to optimise the week before with the 2nd WildCard (if you can't do it adequately just with regular free and paid transfers). But NOTE that a Double Gameweek is really only valuable for good players/teams with good fixtures; there's no point loading up the squad with weaker players who are likely to lose twice (just because they'll get double 'appearance points'....?!).

4)  If you don't hit any unexpected crises and are able to negotiate the only two Blank Gameweeks left in the regular schedule simply with transfers... it can be quite useful to hang on to the Free Hit (and the 2nd Wildcard) to 'optimise' a team for one of the last few weeks of the season (particularly if that might help you progress in one or more of your Cup competitions).

Thus, the Free Hit is almost certainly likely to be more needful and useful in the much larger Blank Gameweek of GW34.... or the Double Gameweek(s) that spin off of that, GWs 36 and/or 33. Even those might very well be able to be navigated without needing to use a chip; in which case, it's still useful to hang on to the Free Hit for a possible emergency that may come up in the last 9 gameweeks of the season... or simply to have some fun with as a late-season 'smart bomb'.  There is NO WAY anybody should be considering using the Free Hit this early in the season, for a Blank Gameweek that involves only 4 teams.

 

Moreover, these aren't even 4 very good teams for FPL. Even Liverpool, with too much rotation in midfield, too many injuries in attack, and an overpriced defence, don't have any obvious picks apart from Mo Salah; few people have had more than two of their players at a time, and most were struggling to think of a third to bring in for their recent successive Double Gameweeks (most went for Cody Gakpo, who'd suddenly hit form; but he got injured again, so could have been relinquished before this blank weekend). Newcastle have had alarmingly yo-yo form all season, and again Isak is looking like their only must-have at the moment; Gordon's returns have been slightly disappointing this season, especially over the last few months (when he's been struggling with a few knocks, and has often looked rather tired; and now he's picked up an extended suspension....); Hall has done surprisingly well at full-back, and became a popular FPL pick... but got a season-ending injury a couple of weeks ahead of the Blank Gameweek. Palace have only recently started to come good, and still don't look strong enough to be trebled up on. And Aston Villa have struggled in the league this season, look a pretty unconvincing mid-table side (doing much better in the Champions League!): there are really none of their players that have been worth having - even for that recent Double Gameweek!

So, there was really no excuse to have ever had more than 6 or 7 players from the affected clubs; and a number of the likeliest picks have already been eliminated by injury or suspension in the last weeks before the Blank. You can carry 2 or 3 players (even 4, if one of them's a keeper) on the bench for a week (well, assuming you haven't got a terrible bench: this is why you need to keep a good bench, to give you the easy option to switch out players who are going to miss a week or two - or just face one tough fixture - without needing to burn through transfers, and possibly lose a lot of squad value on 'transfer tax' with short-term sell-and-buy-backs): and of course you'd like to hang on to players like Salah and Isak, because you'd probably lose A LOT of money on them if you sold them and immediately bought them back. Any remaining essential changes, you should be able to comfortably deal with using saved Free Transfers. 

If poor forward planning leaves you in a situation where you still have more blanking players (and other absentees through injury/suspension) than you can carry on the bench or replace with stored Free Transfers, then you have to bite the bullet and take 'hits' - pay points for extra transfers - to get around the problem. You might compromise, and consider putting out a team of only 9 or 10 players, to keep your transfer points-spend down, (It can be difficult for defenders to earn you more than 4 points.... unless you're really, really confident in their clean-sheet prospects - and that's a very precarious hope to bank on. In all other positions. however, good picks should be capable of earning you at least 4 points, hopefully 5 or 6 or more - so, taking a 'hit' to replace a non-playing first-team member, except perhaps in defence, should always be worth it.)

If, somehow, you find yourself in a really deep hole this week, you might consider instead using the 2nd Wildcard to get out of it. This chip is a bit of a luxury, something that can be held on to for emergencies, but doesn't have any compelling 'tactical' use in the way that the Free Hit does. So, although it would be preferable to be able to save it longer, there's not as much risk with using it early as there is with the Free Hit.

Time to say goodbye?

Cole Palmer has hit a bit of a lull in producitivity, and The Sheep have lost confidence in him. Actually, The Sheep were losing confidence in him after only one or two blanks: after only one return in his last 7 outings, and a 'missed' penalty against Leicester, they're positively up in arms about his supposedly 'awful form'. And there is, unfortunately, likely to be a big sell-off on him this week. In fact, he's already lost nearly 800,000 owners from his peak ownership level of nearly 7.7 million at the turn of the year, and slipped back in price from 11.4 to 11.1 million. However, that's still 600k higher than he was at the start of the year when everyone bought him, so.... you do need to be confident that you won't want him for the rest of the season. If he suddenly rediscovers his scoring boots, and you decide you want him back in a few weeks, you might have tossed away quite a bit of money. (Of course, there is also a possibility that if the stampede away from him gathers more pace, his price will soon drop below its starting level, or at least below what you're selling him for now, so the possible loss of squad value won't be a worry; that is a big gamble to take at this point, though.)

However, I think it might be worth holding on to him just a little bit longer, for these reasons:

1)  He's not 'playing badly'; his team is. But that might soon change.

Romeo Lavia's absence for the past few months has been devastating to Chelsea. He gives them much more security in the middle of the park, and allows Enzo Fernandez to play higher up the pitch, helping to give the high press more cutting edge and otten winning the ball back near the penalty area. Nicolas Jackson has also been a big miss: his finishing was vastly improved in the early part of this season, and he'd formed a great understanding with Palmer - frequently providing assists to him, as well as gratefully accepting several sublime assists himself. Noni Madueke also gives the side a much better range of attacking options - and is the other player who's most often assisted and been assisted by Palmer. All three of those players look like they could be back in action soon.

2)  He's still eager, busy, involved: there's no sign of a loss of energy or confidence.

I always counsel against listening to people who try to cite 'underlying numbers' in support of a position. But in this case, I believe it's justified. Although Palmer has had a few 'quiet' games, and a number of his stats have fallen a good way from what they've been at their best,... they're still not bad. Indeed, his overall involvement - number of touches, number of touches in and around the box, pass completion - is holding up pretty well; he's still central to Chelsea's creative efforts, on the ball more than any other player (and, if the BPS weren't such complete crap, he'd be getting 1 or 2 bonus points every week, even when they don't win; that's how influential he is in this team). He's still getting a fair few scoring chances as well. In fact, he's just been desperately unlucky on many occasions - throughout this season, really, not just during the recent 'slump': he's had efforts go narrowly wide, smack against the woodwork, or bring smart saves out of the keeper in almost every game.

3)  Chelsea's LUCK has got to change eventually, right?

Palmer didn't 'miss' that penalty. OK, he might have telegraphed which side he was putting it, and he didn't tuck it right inside the post, as he usually does; but it was cleanly hit, firm and low, well to the keeper's left - it needed a really good save to keep it out. And it was an illegal save: Hermansen was fully airborne before the ball had left Palmer's boot; the kick should have been retaken, but VAR seemingly didn't even look at that. Moreover, he should have had at least one other penalty, possibly two in that game. And Chelsea have had good penalty shouts mysteriously ignored by the officials several times this season. The overall number of penalties is well down on last year, mainly because of a more generous interpretation of the Handball Law favouring defenders. But Chelsea have been awarded barely a third as many penalties as they were last year; that is a freakish phenomenon - and very, very unjust. Surely, referees can't continue to be this 'biased' against them all season: the luck needs to start balancing out a little at some point.

4)  The fixtures are still looking quite good

Apart from Arsenal this weekend (and they've got problems of their own at the moment; I wouldn't write off Chelsea's chances of an upset win in this one), Chelsea have a pretty soft run through to the end of next month. If the team is soon back to full strength and starts firing again, there could be some big results in prospect.

5)  There's a shortage of really convincing replacements for him

Bruno Fernandes comes up with a great goal once in a while, but Manchester United's form is just awful: he feels like a bit of a risk even for the Leicester game this week, and certainly not a strong prospect for the remainder of the season. City are still looking pretty dreadful too. Arsenal are struggling in the absence of Saka and Martinelli: Trossard and Merino have not lived up to the hopes people had for their attacking potential. Brentford and Bryan Mbeumo appear to be going off the boil again (he was so anonymous in last week's game that I had to doublecheck the match reports to find out if he'd even been playing!), and they have a horrible fixture-run from now on. Son and Bowen haven't really been lighting any fires. Jota's perpetually injured, Diaz is too much of a minutes-risk. and Szoboszlai's a bit too up-and-down in his FPL returns. Though Iwobi, in particular, often looks dangerous, Fulham have been dreadfully inconsistent. And the hour of the Bournemouth attacking midfielders may have passed, now that Evanilson has resumed the primary goalscorer duties there (Kluivert still looks in white-hot form; but the argument in favour of Ouattara or Semenyo, or Brooks or Tavernier, has abruptly faded). Anthony Gordon's been looking jaded, exhausted lately; and now he's picked up a three-game ban. Only Mitoma, Eze, and Hudson-Odoi/Elanga/Gibbs-White have recently staked a claim to inclusion in FPL squads; but none of the 'big name' midfield prospects are looking any better than Palmer at the moment.

I confess I am really torn on this (well, I would be, if I were still playing; I quit in protest at the absurdity of the 'Assstant Manager' chip - that detachment perhaps enables me to view this situation a little more calmly). The drop-off in Palmer's points returns is certainly concerning, especially for such an expensive player. And I think that, if Chelsea don't start to turn things around in the next 2 or 3 games, the case for dropping him will become overwhelmng. But it's not quite that yet. I suspect people who've dropped him now might soon find cause to regret the decision.

Luck-o-Meter (28)

Forest v City was a predictably cagey affair. The visiting side looked much better in defence than they have recently, but toothless and unimaginative going forward - though Forest's organised and determined defence can claim a lot of the credit for that. A goalless draw was looking the likeliest result throughout; though, for me, Callum Hudson-Odoi's brilliant solo goal (with a possible 'Assist of the Season' from Morgan Gibbs-White!) claimed a narrow win that was just about deserved on the balance of play. And as Forest visibly tired over the last 25 minutes or so, they had to dig deep to survive a final wave of pressure. And maybe things would have gone differently if Nico Rodriguez's stunning early drive had sneaked in, rather than clipping the outside of the post; or if Mateo Kovacic's snap volley effort in the dying minutes hadn't corkscrewed just beyond the top right corner of the woodwork... (And it is an absolute travesty that the outstanding Ola Aina got no love at all from the BPS ratings in this one!!)

Brighton looked terribly sluggish and disjointed in the first half, and conceded the lead to a brilliant breakaway from Iwobi and Raul. But apart from that, visitors Fulham barely asserted themselves in the match, and looked very flakey in defence. The second half was one-way traffic for Brighton, and although they left it very, very late to claim the winner from the penalty spot, it seemed entirely deserved - after they'd had two earlier efforts ruled out because their young wingers, Minteh and Adringra, can't always time their runs down the flanks properly... and an incident in which Estupinan appeared to have been bundled over in the box was dismissed by VAR in oddly cursory fashion (again, that might have been the right decision; but there's no consistency about how VAR is operating, how much time it's giving to decisions, and - most crucially - how it's communicating those decisions to the on-pitch referee or to the public; and that is undermining everyone's confidence in the reliability of officiating in the EPL).

Liverpool, not unexpectedly, after their heroic exertions against PSG a few days ago, looked a bit jaded and conservative in the first half - and not having their manager in the dugout to bark instructions at them probably didn't help either. But, yet again, Arne Slot impressed with his in-game management, making three half-time changes to inject fresh legs and more aggression, and re-energizing the whole team with a stern pep talk at the interval. While it's always nice to see an underdog get a break and (briefly) threaten an upset, Southampton's opening goal was rather fortunate: to me, Alisson appeared to have been impeded by the Southampton player falling to the ground next to him - his legs got entangled around the Liverpool keeper's right calf, effectively 'tripping' him and holding him back for a fraction of a second as he struggled to recover the loose ball. In general, I feel that keepers are 'over-protected' in this sort of situation; and it would have been very hard on Southampton to rule the goal out for this; however, there was certainly a question to be answered there, and it was yet again a failing on the part of VAR that this was seemingly not even looked at. There was no question about either of the Liverpool penalties, though. But Mo Salah fans will be miffed that their man didn't claim a hattrick, as Luis Diaz squared the ball to him in the middle of the six-yard box, but it came to him awkwardly high, and he sliced the volleyed attempt well wide of the gaping net.

Ismaila Sarr's late winner seemed just about deserved, although, without their talismanic forward Mateta for the week, Palace looked mostly quite lethargic and disconnected, barely creating a chance - apart from two, remarkably similar, fluke attempts from Eze, where hopeful shots from the edge of the box were half-blocked and looped high in the air towards the far corner: the first drifting just wide, the second finger-tipped to safety by Alex Palmer. Apart from that, their biggest chance came when Palmer - mostly excellent again - smashed a clearance straight into the lurking Nketiah a few yards away, but the ball ricocheted safely wide instead of into the gaping goal. Ipswich actually had rather more of the ball, and generated nearly all the game's best moves: Henderson had to make sharp saves from Philogene, Enciso, and Delap. If they can keep on playing like this, they might yet have a slim chance of scrabbling above Wolves to save themselves from the drop; but that does look to be the only issue still in doubt in the relegation struggle this year. (On the other hand, Jacob Greaves did seem extraordinarily lucky to escape a straight red card for his tug on Sarr just before half-time: the contact was pretty minimal, but once it's been adjudged a foul.... how is it not a 'denial of a goal-scoring opportunity' when the opponent is 20 yards from goal with no other defender anywhere near him??)

Usually, Villa look dead on their feet after playing in Europe; but this time it was the home side, Brentford, who looked out-of-gas, despite not having the excuse of having played midweek. Bryan Mbeumo, majestic for so much of this season, was literally invisible on the BBC highlights, not getting namechecked, or even entering shot even once; their other attacking lynchpins Wissa and Damsgaard only just got themselves noticed, and Christian Norgaard was shuffling around like a zombie, surely carrying some sort of injury. Villa were able to completely dominate the first half, without playing well. Brentford roused themselves to make a bit more of an effort after the break, and were desperately unlucky not to get something out of the match: with Lewis-Potter smashing an effort against the foot of the post, and Schade twice having stone-cold penalty shouts ignored by the ref and the VAR (the first one, you could at least see an argument that two Villa players had collided with each other, and then one of them had fallen into the Brentford man 'by accident' as a result of this - but that shouldn't actually make any difference, when you knock a player off his feet; and the second push was absolutely clearcut). The ref just seemed to have it in for Schade, as he also refused to see an obvious foul against him which gave Villa their best chance of the match with a late breakaway for Watkins, although he then completely muffed his attempt to chip the keeper. Watkins's - and Villa's - luck was a bit of a mixed bag in this one: his opening - ultimately only - goal in the match was a bit of a fluke, skidding off Collins's shin and straight through Flekken's legs, where it should have been quite easily saved on any other trajectory; but then less than a minute later, his flying breakaway to set up Morgan Rogers with a second (a much better move, and a 'goal' that would have been more worthy of deciding the points) was ruled offside by a toe or a kneecap - 'correct', but not the kind of decision we like to see given. And then perhaps Nathan Collins was lucky to escape a straight red card for his wild two-footed challenge in the dying moments of the game; he did get something of the ball and not too much of the man, but, even so, 'scissoring' a player's standing leg, from behind, is not good - and if the ref had pulled out the red card, no-one could have had much complaint about it.

Wolves and Everton were two more teams far below their best yesterday. Everton had most of the ball in the first half, but didn't manufacture many chances. In the second, both sides roused themselves to produce more of a tit-for-tat ding-dong struggle, but still without many high-quality opportunities. Harrison's opener needed a double deflection off the blocking defenders to get beyond Sa, and Pickford will probably feel disappointed that he wasn't able to fall on Munetsi's fairly gentle side-foot finish (although it was a lovely assist from Bellegarde that played him in behind). The recently infallible Beto failing to  convert two good chances in the game, one in each half, is perhaps the biggest surprise - and FPL disappointment! - in a fairly drab encounter.

Cole Palmer 'missed' a penalty??!!  With his record from the spot so far, that's probably worth 2 of my 'luck' points on its own (these in the negative direction, for the 57% or so of FPL managers that owned Cole)! To be fair, it was hardly a 'miss': he hit it cleanly, firm and low - just not as close to the post as he usually does, and the keeper happened to guess right and get down very smartly to it to pull off an excellent save. Although... whenever a keeper gets across that quickly to a pen, you have to wonder if he actually moved too early. And my initial impression here was that Hermansen moved way early; and on the replays, it looked as if he had both feet clearly in the air when Palmer struck the ball. This is yet another instance when VAR should certainly have taken a long hard look at the incident, but we were not informed that they'd given the matter any thought at all. And good grief, poor Palmer had already had a pretty clearcut penalty somehow denied in the opening minutes. Maybe he went down a bit too dramatically, but the defender plainly clipped him from behind, and in fact drove his knee into the back of Palmer's thigh, which is apt to cause a dead-leg. Enzo had another penalty shout in the second-half as well, which again didn't seem to really be considered by the VAR boys: the non-argument here was apparently that he'd tripped himself and was already falling before the contact, but how is that relevant?  The defender flung a leg out and clipped his shin - penalty! It is utterly ridiculous the number of strong - or often downright undeniable - penalties that Chelsea are not being awarded this season.

After a weekend of incredibly drab, listless games, Spurs v Bournemouth was finally a burst of excitement. It is baffling how Spurs somehow salvaged a point from a game in which they were so comprehensively outclassed: Bournemouth hit a post, brought a string of agile saves out of Vicario, and had a superb breakaway goal ruled out - correctly, but rather ponderously - for offside: their 2-0 advantage probably should have been at least twice that before.... Pape Sarr produced a worldie from distance out of nothing, and then Son won a rather soft penalty from Kepa's challenge late in the game. Yes, the goalie did make some contact; but it was very, very slight, and he was trying to pull out of it, while the Korean was obviously looking to hang his legs into the sliding keeper's torso... and the ball was long gone; Son's scoring chance had evaporated, and he was only thinking about the penalty. It was certainly a justifiable decision, but.... if the referee had not given it, I don't see how VAR could have overruled him; it was the kind of call we regularly see going either way.

The Manchester United v Arsenal clash was also actually quite a blast - though perhaps more for the subtle tactical battle than end-to-end thrills. The main points of controversy were Anthony Taylor forcing the Arsenal wall a long way back for the free-kick from which Bruno scored the opener (you expect there to be a few percent plus or minus in these things, but this error was obvious to the naked eye; even with the Arsenal players furtively shuffling a bit over the foam-spray line, there were still a whopping 12% or so further back than they should have been); however, I think most of the blame is still on Raya, who (despite being admittedly unsighted by some clever shenanigans in front of him) was always way too far over in his starting position, and (never mind that he only saw it very late) way too slow in trying to get across (he did make some fantastic saves later in the game, though, really kept Arsenal in the match; again, it is a travesty that the BPS didn't give him more recognition); Bruno hit it pretty sweetly, but it was nowhere near the top corner - really should have been kept out. The other headscratcher moment was United's young debutant defender Ayden Heaven getting away with a handball claim: yes, the ball flew from head to hand quite quickly, but.... not with power; and it was his own header, cushioning the ball downwards in front of him; and he did somehow manage to touch the ball THREE TIMES with his lower arms, with the end result that he brought the ball nicely under control at his feet. These calls are always going to be very subjective, but that was a penalty all day long for me.

The Monday night game at West Ham ended up being a nail-biter; despite visiting Newcastle having pretty much dominated (apart from that bizarre moment when Soucek slashed one over the bar in the opening minute), they weren't able to convert their superiority into goals - mainly thanks to a very sharp display from Areola (who was somehow only credited with 3 saves, and didn't manage even 1 bonus point - WTF??). There was a slight controversy aronnd the Guimaraes goal, with West Ham fans feeling that Kilman had been pushed to the floor by Isak - but the contact was extremely minimal, and Kilman looked to be guilty of making a meal of it to try to con the ref. But yes, again, we've seen decisions like this given.

With two or three penalties and (arguably) a couple of sendings-off not given on Saturday, that was already looking a bit of a rocky week for VAR. So, I provisionally rated this gameweek a 5 out of 10. But goddamn, after a Palmer penalty 'miss' (and two other good penalty shouts for Chelsea turned down; and one for Arsenal...), I think this is up to another 9 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'. Really, you only have to look at how silly the 'Team of the Week' is, with Salah being the only member who's owned by more than about 2% of FPL managers.

DON'T FORGET The Boycott.  The dratted 'Assistant Manager' chip is in play now. I took the high road by quitting playing the game for the rest of the season. [I worry that, if people don't do this, the new chip may become a permanent feature of the game - and it will completely ruin it.]  If you don't feel like joining me in such an emphatic gesture, please at least think about refusing to use the Assistant Manager chip.

Please also criticise and complain about it online as much as possible. And raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Dilemmas of the Week - GW28

 

Oh dear, with a busy couple of weeks since the last EPL gameweek, we have been fairly deluged with suspensions and injury doubts following the 4th Round of the FA Cup.... and the European competitions getting feisty....

I'm trying to streamline these weekly round-ups, as they have been getting dangerously over-long recently! I'm going to confine myself to just the injuries to players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL. [I currently find the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information - go check that out for more comprehensive coverage.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 28?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Jean-Philippe Mateta is probably the biggest blow, as he was becoming a popular striker pick in FPL - despite next week's 'blank' - because of Palace's impressive recent form, and soft fixtures against Southampton and Leicester up next. Amazingly, he was not considered to have suffered a concussion from Milwall keeper Liam Roberts's outrageous kung-fu kick to the side of his head, but his left ear was so badly torn up by his opponent's studs that he's likely to be out for a least a couple of weeks while that heals.

Kaoru Mitoma limped off in the Cup tie against Newcastle with a knee problem, but scans apparently revealed nothing too seriously wrong, and he's now expected to be able to take part this week.

Kieran Trippier (not that he's featured much this year anyway....) also had to go off in that game with a back injury, And Lewis Hall had already picked up an injury in training ahead of that - now revealed to be a broken bone in his foot which will keep him out for the rest of the season. Alexander Isak also limped out of the Brighton game, but it looks like he's going to be OK.

More woes too for Spurs, as Dominic Solanke, getting his first run-out after injury, had to go off with a 'knock' in the Europa League game against Alkmaar on Thursday, and Rodrigo Betancur, who's apparently been playing with a foot injury for a while, is now expected to be unavailable for two or three weeks. However, central defenders Cristian Romero and Micky Van de Ven could be close to a comeback.

Sammie Szmodics suffered a recurrence of his ankle injury in the FA Cup defeat to Forest, and has had to have surgery; likely to miss the rest of the season. Kalvin Phillips, however, who was suffering with a calf-muscle problem for the past couple of weeks, has now returned to training.

Cody Gakpo is still (again...) suffering with an ankle problem, and was omitted from the squad for Wednesday's game against PSG.

Nathan Ake also suffered a broken bone in his foot in the Cup game against Plymouth and is likely to miss the rest of the season - which leaves City very short of defenders.

And Fulham's Adama Traore is a doubt after twisting his ankle in the Cup tie against Manchester United.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Will Hughes and Sasa Lukic are starting two-match bans for picking up their 10th yellow cards of the season in their last Premier League outing.

And Patrick Dorgu, Anthony Gordon, and Matheus Cunha are suspended for the next three games for 'violent conduct' offences in the FA Cup last weekend. (Cunha's ban seems likely to be extended, as the FA filed an additional 'misconduct' charge against him in relation to the incident on Wednesday. And, having let him off so ridiculously lightly last time, they might be less inclined towards leniency now....)

And Tariq Lamptey is out for one game after receiving two yellow cards in the Cup game against Newcastle.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Dear, oh dear - well, most of the Manchester United team, really (does anyone still have any of their players - even Bruno??); but especially Andre Onana, whose confidence is looking pretty shotl; I rather fear that being forced to play behind a different back three almost every single week has eroded his understanding with his defensive partners and is leading him into increasingly panicky decision-making.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Cup competitions aren't usually much of a guide to League form anyway. And I can't think of anyone who was that eye-catching on the last EPL weekend, or since.

As for the goddamned AssMan.... no strong table-bonus opportunities this week: Leicester, Ipswich, and Southampton currently look to have no chance of even beating each other, let alone anyone higher up the table. A lot of the so-called 'experts' seem to be tipping Graham Potter, though without any obvious reason for doing so; even at home, I don't much fancy West Ham's chances against Newcastle. With the likes of Van de Ven, Romero, and Solanke poised for a possible return, there might be a case for taking a chance now on Ange Postecoglou, with Bournemouth, Fulham, and Chelsea all comfortably above them in the table, but looking very beatable.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

DON'T FORGET The Boycott; the dratted new 'Assistant Manager' chip is in play now - and I am urging everyone to please consider quitting the game, or at least refusing to use this silly chip. 

And if you can't bring yourself to do either of those things, please do criticise the Assistant Manager chip as vigorously as possible on any relevant social media channels you use, raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

A little bit of Zen (32)

"Success is no accident. It is hard work, perseverance, learning, studying, sacrifice - and most of all, love of what you are doing or learning to do." 

Edson Arantes do Nascimento (Pelé) 

BETTER THINGS to aim at

I mentioned this morning that I grow extremely weary of the tiresome and misguided obsession among so many FPL managers with RANK. It really tells you nothing useful about how good your decision-making in the game is, only.... how much luckier than you a certain number of people have been. (Not everyone who's above you is only there because of luck, of course. But the sorry truth - a cold, cruel statistical inevitability - is that the higher you are in the overall ranking, the greater the percentage is likely to be of the people above you who have simply been luckier than you. If you don't want to feel abused by luck, you should aim for the lower end of the rankings....!)

So, what can you focus on instead, to give you some sense of your achievement or progress in the game?

Well, I already touched on this point in a couple of very early posts on this blog. 

First, I outlined here what various points thresholds indicate about your relative ability. (Points totals are slightly more reliable as a measure of progress for individuals because, for most of us [though not, by any means, everyone!], 'luck' more or less balances out over the course of a season. Final rank position, however, can still vary enormously, because the number of total players may be more or less from one year to another, the scope for luck to have a distorting impact may be more in one year than another [there was a HUGE, unprecedented number of injuries last year, for instance; and there have been some particularly bad refereeing decisions this season, as well as a somewhat 'unexpected' meltdown for the champions, City...; things like this can make a big difference, but much more so in some years than others]; and there may, for undiscernible reasons, just be far more hugely lucky people in one year than another - so, your overall rank may differ considerably from one year to another, even though your points tally is remarkably similar.)

Second, I suggested that in addition to tracking your progress against points 'milestones' (or just seeking to regularly beat the global average), it is better to focus on small mini-leagues against people you know, or at least on more modest-sized 'public leagues' where you can develop some sense of familiarity with your closest rivals (studying their selections and performance over time, such that you start to build up an awareness of the quirks and preferences in their approach to the game, their strengths and weaknesses). Pitting yourself against familiar opponents gives you a fuller sense of how you are performing - and a deeper satisfaction if you are indeed doing well. But, ideally, it should also help you to become less self-obsessed about the game - able to applaud a rival's success when they do better than you, able to recognise why it has happened. (If they really have made better choices than you, that is. And if they appear to have just been very lucky, learn to laugh it off. That should mean that next year, if you really are the better player, you will prevail.)  [My principal rivalry within the game is against an old college buddy. He's not actually very good at it. And so it can be rather galling when he does much better than me in his weekly points tallies. He has - once - even managed to beat me over a season... more by luck than anything else. But I am genuinely happy for him when he achieves these successes, whether they're fully deserved or not. My chief aim in competing against him is to encourage and goad and cajole him into paying more attention, so that he can gradually improve in the game... and eventually triumph in his small work league (which will be no mean achievement, because it does include a couple of rather impressive managers).]

A corollary to this latter point is that you might also try to focus more on 'head-to-head' battles with particular rivals, rather than overall points. I've never been bothered to enter any head-to-head leagues myself; but I do in practice keep a tally of my week-by-week performance against a few key rivals. And that, I think, is a more accurate measure of your overall ability than your relative points totals might be. (That college buddy of mine who managed to beat me a season or two back on the points totals was still well behind on the weekly head-to-head...)  A few stupendously lucky weeks where someone achieves a massive points advantage over you can effectively decide the whole season. (I noted in another early post that the quest to be a global No. 1 at season's end, or even in the top 10,000 or so, is pretty much over after the first few weeks, if you don't get off to a flying start... A genuine flying start, that is; not just faking it by blowing all your chips in the first few weeks!)

I have also ventured the - somewhat 'controversial' - view that your growth in squad value is actually a very reliable measure of your basic competence in the game. The danger with it is, of course, that you can try to focus solely on growing squad value - and that will probably be to the detriment of your points total or your head-to-head successes. But as an organic by-product of how you play the game from week-to-week, I think a healthy and consistent growth in squad value each year can be a very telling marker of your ability in the game. [Well, I used to think that. My confidence in the idea has been slightly shaken this season and last by the increasing volatility in the transfer market, by the sudden price drops being initiated by the sheep losing confidence and starting to bale on a good player after just two or three blank weeks....]

In a busy spell of early posting around the beginning of this 2024-2025 season, I also suggested some tips for gauging how good your initial squad selection is; and you can apply these same principles on an ongoing basis throughout the season to check if you've been keeping your squad in the best possible shape.

And finally, I produced a list of recommendations for how to get better at the game. I would suggest that if you examine your thought process around selection decisions etc. each week in reference to each of these categories.... you will develop a sense of whether you're getting better at the game, and why... regardless of what's going on with your points total or your ranking!

Yes, sorry, this post has ended up being just a 'greatest hits' compilation of links to earlier posts. I may at some point try to distil these observations - and perhaps a few novel ones too - into a simpler and more useful list. 

But I do earnestly believe that all of these things I've touched on above are more important than points or rank. Yes, really. 

This is the beginning of 'enlightenment': play the game not to reach arbitrary external goals, but for the innate sense of satisfaction to be derived from it, from the expense of thought and effort, from the grappling with the challenge, from the constant striving to be better.

The main PROBLEM with FPL

People want to measure their success in the game of Fantasy Premier League. But there is no reliable gauge of your success. 

Your points total is primarily a measure of how lucky you've been.

Your rank is primarily a measure of how lucky everyone else has been, in relation to you.

The aim of the game should be to exercise and develop your skill in making the best squad selections (and 'chip strategy' decisions, etc.). But your points returns are not an accurate reflection of your skill and good judgement: they depend very largely on pure luck. (And, as I pointed out the other day, with the help of Youtube science educator Derek Muller, the effect of even small amounts of luck on final outcomes can be HUGE...) Very bad FPL managers can sometimes do extraordinarily well. Very good FPL managers can often fare very badly.... It is a cruel and unjust game.

We need to find other ways of gauging our progress in the game of FPL, other ways of taking satisfaction in it.

Perhaps a useful place to start is..... focusing less on how good you think you are, and concentrating instead on pursuing constant improvement.

Another take on 'LUCK'

 

I've been following Derek Muller's excellent science channel, Veritasium, on Youtube for several years, but I only just stumbled upon this video of his from 4 or 5 years ago on the role of 'LUCK' - in sports, and life. 

Just over 3 minutes in, he has a fascinating example of a mathematical simulation he ran of the competitive selection process for NASA astronaut training - which apparently demonstrates that, with even a very small element of 'luck' at play in the process, at least 80% of those finally selected (overcoming daunting odds of around 1,700-1!!) will have displaced more able candidates by virtue of that little bit of crucial luck.

He doesn't go into a lot of detail about his simulation. I suspect that it involved multiple 'elimination rounds', rather as with a knockout cup competition - which would tend to cumulatively exaggerate the impact of the participants' luck. Nevertheless, it is a striking example of how great an effect luck can have in competitive outcomes.

And he was only allowing a weighting of up to 5% for the 'luck' factor in his selection tests. I think in Fantasy Premier League.... it's probably at least 50%!

I hate it when people naively brag about their rank in the game. Your rank proves nothing about how smart or capable you are. You can't get into the top 100,000 or so without having a substantial amount of good luck. And statistics would suggest that the great majority of that top 100,000 are there mostly through luck (that 80/20 split comes up everywhere.....), at the expense of far more capable managers.

A little bit of Zen (31)

“We should not strive to be better than others, but to be our best selves.”

Kosho Uchiyama

Luck-o-Meter (27)

Well the new gameweek got off to a great start, with no contentious refereeing decisions in Wednesday's games.

The Brighton v Bournemouth game was an open and entertaining one, and very, very close. Kluivert's screamer from just outside the box was the 'goal of the week', and Bart Verbruggen kept his team on terms with a string of excellent saves. It really felt a little unjust that substitute Danny Welbeck's slightly scuffed 75th-minute effort just sneaked in off the foot of the post.

Chelsea got a predictably comfortable win against dismal Southampton, though, for FPL purposes, the most significant element of the game was Cole Palmer again failing to register a contribution. He was - yet again - desperately unlucky: being denied by a good block from Ramsdale early on, and then in the second half curling one just beyond the far post (when he was a bit unbalanced by a cheeky tug on the back of his shirt from Joe Aribo), and moments later seeing Neto selfishly go for a difficult near-post drive rather than passing to him when he was waiting unmarked in the middle of the six-yard-box; he also brought another good save out of the keeper from a free-kick, and had two or three other decent efforts on goal. In another universe, he got a brace or a hattrick in this game! Colwill and Cucurella getting on the scoresheet was also a turn-up for the books...

Villa were unfortunate that Morgan Rogers's apparent equaliser just before half-time was chalked off for a very tight offside against Watkins (by a kneecap!), and if that one had counted, perhaps the game might have developed differently. But to be frank, home side Palace were by far the better team here, and well worth their ultimately comfortable win. The return of Adam Wharton after a long spell of injury is very promising for them.

Fulham were fortunate to get two superb individual goals from Sessegnon and Muniz early in each half, but home side Wolves looked much the better side for most of the game. The only refereeing booboo of the night was failing to award a foul against Diop for wrestling Cunha to the ground at the start of a move which led to Traore having a good effort saved by Sa.

Everton's comeback against Brentford was well-deserved (another goal from a defender??), as they looked much the better side for most of the game, and are left rueing Beto's inability to get the better of Flekken in three one-one-one breaks (for the first of which, he should probably just have stayed on the floor when tripped by Pinnock 25 yards out - which would have earned his side a dangerous free-kick and got the Brentford man send off for a 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity').

Manchester United at least showed some resilience to eventually prevail over a resolute Ipswich, especially after gifiting their visitors an early lead through an appalling mix-up between Onana and Dorgu, and then having Dorgu - rightly - sent off just before half-time for an horrendous follow-through on Hutchinson; but they did again look very, very poor.

Arsenal are still looking worryingly toothless - dominating the game at Forest, but scarcely managing to produce a decent attempt at goal. Their best effort came early on, when Calafiori's lightning turn bought him space to shoot from the left side of the box, but he cracked his effort against the inside of the post. In the second-half, fill-in 'No. 9' Merino managed one firm header, but it was comfortably parried over the bar by Sels. Chris Wood had his inevitable one chance on goal, but on this occasion was unable to get it past Raya. Overall, a very sterile encounter. Forest fans may resent the fact they didn't get an early penalty when Hudson-Odoi appeared to have been brought down by Calafiori; but it looked to me as if the Italian had begun the foul but immediately backed out of it; he did put his hand on his opponent's shoulder for a fraction of a seciond, and he may have brushed against his trailing leg - but (for once!) I think I agree with the VAR official that this was "minimal contact". But this might be the one really contentious call of the week: we've certainly seen them given.

Liverpool appear to be beginning a serene cruise to the title over the last 10 weeks of the season; Newcastle really couldn't put up much resistance at all (apart from Callum Wilson wasting a great chance from a good break in behind). The FPL hordes are frustrated that Salah didn't produce much (only one assist?!), but he was a bit unlucky not to win a penalty or a dangerous free-kick on the edge of the box in the opening minutes (the trip on him looked well outside the box, but it was definitely a deliberate fall - and foul - by Hall, rather than a 'push' by Salah, as the referee mystifyingly called it; you suspect he was just trying to assert early on that he wasn't going to succumb to the typical home-side bias at Anfield!), and that Luis Diaz couldn't quite get the decisive connection on his sublime outside-of-the-boot pass to the far post in the second half. Isak's last-minute omission with a groin strain was also a heavy blow, since he's in nearly 60% of FPL teams, and was probably captain for the week in a good few of them. Also, Nick Pope's form really hasn't looked that sharp in recent games (even coming through defenders' legs, Szoboszlai's opener was too tamely hit to have posed any serious problems, but he was very slow getting down to it), and one wonders if Dubravka might be reinstated for the next gameweek.

Was this the best Manchester City performance in four or five months, or were Spurs just bad? Well, possibly both. City, energised by the return of Haaland (though I would still bet he has a cartilage problem in that knee, and they're just desperately hoping he can make it to the end of the season before needing keyhole surgery) should have put the game well beyond reach in the first half: Savinho missed an open goal, and Vicario made a few sharp saves to keep the home side in it. Ange must have deployed 'the hairdryer' at half-time, because it was a completely different Spurs in the second half, and they did start causing City some anxieties. But still, City's lead was rarely threatened, and it looked like Haaland's late second really shouldn't have been disallowed (VAR strangely claiming they couldn't make a clear determination on the issue, though they seemed to have some pretty clear pictures of it; there have been many occasions recently when they really should have admitted this and didn't, but here... well, the referee thought Haaland 'handled' the ball, but it appeared to strike him high on the left upper arm, in the 'permitted zone'; while the ball clearly did hit the arms of both of the defenders in close attendance - but VAR appeared to offer no adjudication on that; for me, the reaction of the players tells the tale on this one: Haaland was happily celebrating the goal with his teammates, clearly oblivious of any possibility of any offence being called against it).

In the final game on Thursday night, West Ham cruised to a comfortable but ininspiring win against Leicester, who are now looking much the worst of three very unimpressive promoted sides. It's really quite difficult to see any of them reaching 17th-placed Wolves's current total of 22 points by the end of the season, let alone reaching a more realistic safety threshold in the mid-30s. Apparently, there might have been some slight doubt as to whether the corner which led to the second goal was rightly awarded, but the refereeing in this one was otherwise uncontentious.

A pretty unremarkable gameweek, this: a few debatable but probably not wrong decisions - the denial of Haaland's second goal being the only real injustice, I think. The results all went fairly predictably (and predictably low-scoring, with several closely matched games); on recent form, I suppose it was mildly surprising that City managed to brush off Spurs so straightforwardly, and a win for United (and 3 goals??!!), especially after they'd gone behind early on and had a man sent off, was a bigger one. Kluivert's thumper from outside the box was the only really outstanding moment of gameplay; and Palmer's failure to register an attacking contribution despite having an outstanding game was the main instance of extreme bad luck. There were, however, some extremely unexpected goalscorers this week (a lot of defenders!!), while most of the big names drew a blank, or didn't come up with much: it's one of those weeks where almost no-one owns any of the 'Team of the Week'! That adds at least a couple more 'luck' points.....

With Haaland's unexpected return and Isak's unexpected absence really being the only major surprises, I rate this gameweek only a 5 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'. 

DON'T FORGET The Boycott.  The dratted 'Assistant Manager' chip is in play now. I took the high road by quitting playing the game for the rest of the season. [I worry that, if people don't do this, the new chip may become a permanent feature of the game - and it will completely ruin it.]  If you don't feel like joining me in such an emphatic gesture, please at least think about refusing to use the Assistant Manager chip.

Please also criticise and complain about it online as much as possible. And raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Dilemmas of the Week - GW27

Another very tight turnaround before the midweek gameweek kicking off on Tuesday evening, so there probably won't be much detailed team news available.

And I'm trying to streamline these weekly round-ups, as they have been getting dangerously over-long recently! I'm going to confine myself to just the injuries to players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL. [I currently find the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information - go check that out for more comprehensive coverage.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 27?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Morgan Rogers (ankle knock) and Tyrone Mings ('feeling something' again in his previously injured knee) are slight doubts for Villa after the weekend.

Brighton's Joel Veltman and Danny Welbeck missed the weekend with unspecified knocks, and remain a doubt.

Christian Norgaard had to come off at the weekend after a blow to the head, and will have to miss the next game under 'concussion protocols'.

Trevoh Chalobah injured his back in the game against Villa, and seems likely to be out for a little while. (Tosin will presumably have to deputise for him. But they're getting spread so thin at the back now, you wonder if they might have to recall Axel Disasi from loan at Villa.)  Noni Madueke picked up a minor hamstring problem in the game against Brighton a week ago, and is expected to be out at least a few more weeks.

Emile Smith Rowe had to come off early on Saturday with an ankle problem, but it doesn't look too serious.

Jens Cajuste hurt his ankle and Kalvin Phillips went down with a calf strain in the Spurs game, which will be hard blows for Ipswich - though probably not for many FPL managers!

It seems City are slowly moving towards acknowledging that Erling Haaland has a knee injury, after omitting him from the squad altogether at the weekend - but still no word on exactly what it is. (It's a cartilage tear. I would bet my house on that.)  And John Stones apparently might need surgery on the thigh muscle problem that forced him off against Real last week, which would end his season.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Myles Lewis-Skely has a one-game ban for a 'denial of a goal-scoring opportunity' red card at the weekend, and Illia Zabarnyi is facing a three-game ban for 'serious foul play'. (Bournemouth are appealing the decision against Zabarnyi, but I doubt if they'll be successful. The FA seem reluctant to criticise their referees, and I think will probably feel that contact with the studs a quarter of the way up the shin - even though low-impact, and completely accidental - is suffiicent to justify the possibility of such a call; particularly as it was apparently seen that way by both the on-pitch referee and the VAR official.)

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Cole Palmer has been... not poor, but decidedly 'quiet' in the last couple of games - and apparently nearly 90,000 managers have quit on him since the weekend. But even a Palmer at only 70% or 80% of his best can turn a game with a moment of magic; and he does have Southampton and Leicester up next, so.... it seems the wrong time to be losing faith in him.

There is more justifiable impatience, I think, with Morgan Rogers (200,000 owners shedding him already this week), who, despite a couple of strong performances in the FA Cup, has made no impression at all in the League since the turn of the year, and in the last couple of games has been scarcely even visible on the pitch. He's probably in need of a rest; and now that Villa have brought in players like Asensio, Rashford, and Malen, he'll probably be getting shared minutes - for a while at least. (And Villa have testing away games at Palace and Brentford next, and then the blank gameweek....)

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

The Sheep will no doubt be rushing in for Marco Asensio after his brace against Chelsea - but, frankly, neither he nor Villa looked all that good in that game. I'd already recommended him as a 'one to watch'... but I'd be still watching for a game or two yet.

With Brighton seemingly getting themselves back together over the past couple of weeks, Joao Pedro and Georginho Rutter are becoming tempting budget picks again. Although Everton's Beto and Abdoulaye Doucoure are starting to look as if they might have even stronger claims for consideration for those cheap final slots in the squad.

As for the dratted AssMan chip....  once again the table-bonus opportunities look irresistible, with Vitor Pereira's Cunha-inspired Wolves looking a strong prospect to pick off recently schizophrenic Fulham, while Oliver Glasner's Palace seem to have strongly upward-trending form, and face an Aston Villa who - despite a lucky win against flakey Chelsea last time - are heading rather in the other direction. And given City's probable low morale after the pair of humiliating defeats to Real and Liverpool, and Spurs' record of being a 'bogey team' for them in recent years, the bold might favour trying a punt on Ange Postecoglou.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

DON'T FORGET The Boycott; the dratted new 'Assistant Manager' chip is in play now - and I am urging everyone to please consider quitting the game, or at least refusing to use this silly chip. 

And if you can't bring yourself to do either of those things, please do criticise the Assistant Manager chip as vigorously as possible on any relevant social media channels you use, raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip