Dilemmas of the Week - GW17 (25/26)

After the frenzy of quickfire fixtures around the turn of the month, followed for several teams by a highly consequential sixth tie in the group phase of the European competitions, being 'back to normal' for a little while now feels tremendously restful - really quite a little holiday. But of course, things start getting a bit crazy again at the end of next week. And even this week, we had 5 Premier League teams - Chelsea, Newcastle, Fulham, City and Brentford - involved in League Cup Quarter-Finals, which have taken a further little toll in injuries. And Palace and Arsenal's tie in that competition is still to come, next Tuesday. (If England's football authorities were to take one step to slightly ease the insane fixture congestion in the modern game, I really don't think anyone would mind seeing this competition being restricted - as its name already implies - to just those clubs competing under the umbrella of the English Football League, i.e., the top three tiers of the game outside of the Premier League [which is a separate and superior entity]. Many Premier League teams would obviously prefer to exit the event fairly quickly; and almost all of them regularly field a 'B side', at least until the latter stages, demonstrating that none of them really care all that much about it.)

Also, most clubs will be reeling from having lost a key player or two (or, in some cases, even more) to the African Cup of Nations, which kicks off this Sunday. That is a further element of unpredictability we have to grapple with this weekend!

I'm trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 17?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

The inevitable surge in seasonal injuries has really begun to kick in big time, with Ben White, Daichi Kamada, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Jack Grealish, Joe Gomez, and Jean-Ricner Bellegarde all having to come off in last weekend's games with pulled thigh-muscles. No clear news on any of them yet, I don't think; all seem likely to be kept on the sidelines for at least 3 weeks or so, but it could be 2 months or more if any of them prove to be serious cases. We also saw Dominic Szoboszlai limping from a heavy knock to the ankle in the Brighton game. Dan Burn, who had to come off against Sunderland after taking a heavy blow to the ribs, is apparently going to be out of action for 4-6 weeks (so, presumably he must have broken some ribs?). Jeremy Doku, who was a surprise late omission from City's match against Palace after a training mishap, has now been confirmed as being likely to miss about 2 weeks with a leg injury. And Bournemouth's Tyler Adams came off in Monday night's thriller at Old Trafford; Iraola said he thought it was an MCL (Medial Collateral Ligament) problem rather than ACL, and not too serious - but it could still keep him out for a few weeks at least.

Danny Welbeck has been struggling with a sore back and hasn't trained much this week, but Hurzeler is modestly hopeful he might be OK this weekend.

Igor Thiago and Jordan Henderson are also both struggling with knocks which kept them out of the midweek League Cup defeat by City. Oscar Bobb came off very early in that match; apparently yet another hamstring injury.

Estevao also had to miss the midweek League Cup game with a minor muscle injury; he is expected to be able to play again after Christmas.

As well as being without Dan Burn, Newcastle had to rest Lewis Hall for the League Cup game against Fulham because of some ominous tightness in the thigh, and he's still considered doubtful for this weekend. And Tino Livramento had to come off in the Fulham game with a knee injury that looks as if it might be at least moderately serious. With Kieran Trippier and Emil Krafth already on the injury list, and not expected to be able to return for at least another couple of weeks, it appears that Newcastle no longer have any specialist full-backs available to them - unless they promote someone from the youth team. (Lewis Miley did a decent job filling in at right-back in the League Cup game, but I wouldn't expect that to be a regular assignment.) I wonder if Howe might switch to a back-three for a while, and try to deploy players like Gordon, Ramsey, Willock or Murphy, or maybe even Elanga, as wing-backs rather than wide attacking players. And at least Yoane Wissa is now available again as an additional attacking option, having played well and scored a fine poacher's goal in the League Cup victory.

Fulham's Sasa Lukic also had to be withdrawn at half-time in that League Cup game with tightness in the groin; though that might have been just 'precautionary'.

Forest midfielder Nicolas Dominguez had to miss last week's win over Spurs with an unspecified knee problem, and goalkeeper Matz Sels also had to give way to his understudy John Victor because of a sore groin muscle.

It's a lucky FPL manager who isn't going to be missing at least 1 of those. Actually, that would be extraordinarily lucky! You're pretty fortunate if you've only got 2 or 3 players here wiped out or extremely doubtful for this week. [This is why it's so dangerous to try to play a Bench Boost in the bleak midwinter.]

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Jadon Sancho is still a Manchester United player, so can't turn out for Villa against them on Sunday (though Emery hasn't been making much use of him anyway).

Lewis Dunk, Diego Gomez, Casemiro, and Yerson Mosquera are the latest players to earn a one-match ban for picking up a 5th booking of the season. Here the other players now getting close to a 'totting up' suspension.

Sunderland's Luke O'Nien is serving the second part of his three-match ban for a sending-off for 'serious foul play' near the end of the City game a fortnight ago.

Sunderland are likely to be particularly hard-hit by the AFCON departures, losing their midfield lynchpin Sadiki and their first-choice left-back Reinildo, as well as the more intermittently used Talbi, Traore, Masuaku, and Diarra (although at least they'll still have Simon Adingra still avaiable, as he was unexpectedly omitted from the Ivory Coast squad - because he's been getting so few minutes thus far at Sunderland). Manchester United have to do without their only regular goalscorer so far, Mbeumo, as well as wide attacker Amad and back-up defender Mazraoui, while West Ham are losing their preferred full-backs on both sides, Wan-Bissaka and Diouf,; Everton will surely suffer without the influential Ndiaye and Idrissa Gueye, and already struggling Fulham could perhaps implode without their influential Nigerian trio of Bassey, Iwobi, and Chukwueze.

Brentford lose Dango Ouattara and Frank Onyeka, Brighton their commanding midfield stopper Baleba, Burnley lose Tuanzebe, Foster, and Hannibal (though he's currently banned anyway),  Palace lose Ismaila Sarr, Liverpool lose Salah, City lose Marmoush and Ait-Nouri (although the latter hasn't been getting any game time anyway), Spurs lose Pape Sarr and Bissouma, while Forest must do without Sangaré (who was superb in the Spurs game last week) and back-up defender Boly.

The 'good news' is that few FPL managers owned any of these anyway, apart from Bryan Mbeumo. And the 'jolly super news' was that 3 of the next most popular African players in FPL so far this year, Antoine Semenyo and Mo Kudus (Ghana) and Yankuba Minteh (Gambia) missed out on qualifying for the tournament this year.

As I observed a few weeks ago, the main impact of AFCON on our FPL fortunes this time around is not going to be felt in the players we lose from our teams (few, if any) but in the effects it may have on the Premier League sides who lose key players; form is going to be even more uncertain, match results even more unpredictable for the next few weeks. At least most of these players should be back again in time for Gameweek 21, kicking off on the 7th January. But any who make it through to the knockout stages won't be available again GW22 or GW23 - perhaps even GW24 for the Finalists.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Fortunately, no. But - even with FPL's generous Early Christmas Present of extra Free Transfers last week! - I doubt if any of us enjoy the luxury of being able to drop someone this week just for showing dodgy form. It seems likely that every available transfer is going to be needed to address injury and suspension issues over the next few weeks.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Well, Phil Foden does appear to have become the season's 3rd 'essential' pick (after Haaland, and an Arsenal defender...) - even though it's almost certain that he won't produce half as many points over the next 5 or 6 gameweeks as he just has in that remarkable fortnight around the turn of the month! But damn, Rayan Cherki has been looking very, very good of late as well (if you fancy going against the tide...). Harry Wilson and Bruno Fernandes are also justifiably popular picks this week, after a storming run of form over the past 4 gameweeks (trouble is, really hot streaks like this rarely last more than 4 games...). Hugo Ekitike and Morgan Rogers are also being heavily transferred in; but, although they've been playing superbly, I doubt if there's reliable long-term FPL value in them: Villa have been massively over-performing, and are due a downward blip, while Liverpool are only just starting to sort themselves out - and may now be facing another step backwards, without Szoboszlai, Gakpo, Salah, or any recognised right-back [ah, I forgot Bradley's fit again; so, things aren't quite that bad...].  [Well, I was 'wrong' about Villa and Morgan Rogers; they keep grinding out the wins, even without playing that well - which is usually a sign of a potential champion! I'm still a bit wary about young Morgan for FPL, though; he's been in a super-hot little spell of form lately, but he's never in the past been a super-prolific points producer: only a few double-digit hauls per season, almost never gets back-to-back hauls of any sort at all. And I was right about Foden's and Wilson's and Fernandes's streaks coming to an end.]

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

A little bit of Zen (73)

 

"Something so comfortable, familiar and perfectly nostalgic - frankly, we have no desire to improve upon it at all.”

Joana Gaines

Ms Gaines (apparently an American TV presenter of modest celebrity) was ostensibly talking about Christmas. She inadvertently sums up how I'm sure many of us feel about FPL....  (NO MORE CHANGES next year, please!!)

Anyhow,  Happy Holidays to all!

FOUR types of selection decision in FPL

 

It occurred to me the other day, when I was writing about Phil Foden's recent improbably hot run of form, that we may discern 4 main types of selection decision in FPL, differentiated by their timing.

Timing of a transfer: the FOUR TYPES

1)  Anticipatory/Speculative/Precognitive

If you go in for a player before he's started to show any clear signs of form - just following a 'hunch', or because you have some sentimental attachment to him, or because he's a big-name player who's often done well in the past (ahem, Mo Salah...) - you may sometimes get lucky with that. But you have to appreciate that it's a very risky play. Going in so early for someone is inevitably a big gamble, even if you may have some good reasons - though very subtle and uncertain ones - for the choice. Those reasons might be founded on past history (e.g., the player usually recovers strongly from a brief injury absence, regularly displays a particularly keen hunger to return to the fray after missing a few games for any reason, always bounces back strongly after just a few poor performances, often has a great game against this particular opponent...), a positive shift in team form or lineup or tactics, a favourable run of upcoming fixtures, some background information which may suggest a likely psychological lift (a spat with the manager or a legal problem resolved, a family problem improving, a bereavement receding into the past), or subtle indications on the pitch of a possible turnaround in fitness or confidence that might herald a sudden, imminent uptick in points-scoring form. If you weighed up such factors, and subsequent performances by the player seemed to vindicate your assessment, you may congratulate yourself on a perceptive early transfer decision. But more often, FPL managers who go in early for someone are just taking a wild punt, based on no substantive rationale at all; and if that player suddenly hits a hot streak of form out of nowhere, they've just been incredibly LUCKY - but they'll never admit that. [Disgruntled rivals may complain of them relying on a crystal ball or a time-machine, because there really seems to be no other way to explain how such a bizarre decision worked out so well for them....]

2)  Hasty/Hopeful/The Calculated Gamble

If you go in for a player after 1 or 2 good hauls, that will sometimes pay off for you. But again, it's very risky - you might be falling victim to the classically over-optimistic vice of chasing last week's points. 'Form' is not always accurately reflected by points returns; 'form' is often transient or inconsistent. You need to look for evidence of a general upturn in form that is likely to persist - and improve further - over a number of games. You can only find that kind of evidence by watching full games with close attention; stats are no substitute for that; and a highlights roundup is not good enough either - you need to have seen the whole game. 

3)  The 'Goldilocks Zone'

This is the 'ideal' time to make a transfer, the time when most 'smart' managers recognise that a player is probably now worth having. Now, as I just said above, because 'form' is not always reflected fully - or, sometimes, at all - in the FPL points returns, this 'sweet spot' might come when a player has started playing better, but has not yet produced any worthwhile points; or perhaps, they've only produced a few modest hauls, but (not yet) a really big one. And, although it might sometimes be possible to discern indications of a decisive upturn in performance from just one game, usually it takes a little longer to be confident of that. As I wrote in this essay at the end of last season attempting to define the concept of 'form': One good game might be a freak; two on the bounce is very encouraging, but it still might mean nothing; three.... is form.  Of course, with the benefit of hindsight, you can pinpoint the individual gameweek in which a player first began a streak of good points-scoring - even if those returns were at first quite modest and/or quite intermittent (and perhaps not really reflective of any strong positive shift in the player's or his team's performance at that point!). But as the season is unfolding, it is almost always impossible to recognise the exact moment of such a shift: it doesn't generally become visible until a little later - one, or two, or three gameweeks further on. And that is when you should be jumping on the player. Don't beat yourself up that you might have missed a few good hauls from him; be satisfied that you're getting good points from him now, points that a lot of rival managers are still missing out on.

4)  'Late to the party'

Often, you'll miss these 'early signs' that a player may be about to go on a tear. And that's forgivable - especially if, like me, you don't have good access to live TV coverage of the games. And the 'Goldilocks Zone' is very unforgiving, usually an extremely narrow window of opportunity: it's often just a single gameweek, and, even with the most generous dispensation, it can rarely be extended to more than two or three. However, after that point, it should be fairly obvious that this player is now a top pick, and if you continue to ignore him - well, then you're really not paying attention; or, worse, you're being stubborn (sticking to a previous selection in defiance of mounting evidence against it), or unreasonably prejudiced against this new option (perhaps he hurt you in the past: the old 'He always starts blanking as soon as I buy him' superstition - we've all fallen victim to that at one time or another). Often, such stubbornness grows out of being in thrall to the ideal of self-consistency, or what is sometimes called a 'committment bias'  - one of the most deep-rooted and damaging of our cognitive biases: we may have convinced ourselves that a player we'd picked ahead of the newly in-form player was always going to remain the superior prospect, or we may have convinced ourselves early on in this emerging trend of form that it was going to prove ephemeral - and nothing will now change our minds about this choice, no matter how much evidence is stacking up that it has now become wrong. But.... better LATE than NEVER. If you can overcome your pride, your stubbornness, your prejudice, and accept that a player is now so hot that you must have him - you might still be able to catch one or two more decent hauls from him before the streak dries up (as they all do, eventually).

In summary, then:...

The first type of transfer is very early: made before there has yet been any evidence of an improvement in a player's performance (or at least, not in his FPL points returns); it is hence a big, and probably unjustified, risk. Such transfers can occasionally pay off very well; but you should ensure that such a pick is based on definite evidence - if only in the form of positive background factors, rather than anything yet in the on-field displays - and sound reasoning.

The second type is also early, and possibly over-hasty: it is made on the basis of an improvement in performance, but perhaps only scant evidence of such, perhaps from just one or two games - which is rarely enough to make you fully confident of a sustained upturn in form. If you're allowing yourself to get over-excited about one or two good returns, you're most often not shrewdly anticipating the next big thing, but simply falling prey to a fatuous 'sheep pick'.

The third type is based on an astute assessment of early evidence of an upturn in performance: not just the FPL points returns, but the overall contribution of the player and the way he and his team are functioning together. Such evidence may occasionally be visible in a single game; but usually it takes two or three games to become persuasive.

The fourth type is at least slightly late - or maybe very late! - only recognising the turn in form some time after it has become evident, at least to the smarter and more perceptive FPL managers. (As a general rule-of-thumb, if The Scout - FPL's vapid, anonymous, in-house pundit - has just recommended a player,... you probably should have bought him at least one or two gameweeks back.)

To apply this template to the recent example of Phil Foden's extraordinary streak of goalscoring form....

If you'd gone in for him in Gameweek 13, that was definitely a Type 1 decision. And it must have been based on having a crystal ball, because there really was no indication that he was suddenly about to come good so strongly, after a long run of 'blanks', and often pretty anonymous performances (he'd only produced 20 points from the previous 8 games, with just a solitary assist!). A fixture against Leeds was not sufficient reason to start fancying a player who'd shown almost no indication of suddenly becoming a major FPL points contributor again over the previous two months. (Neither was a moderately promising fixture-run immediately thereafter. And it was only moderately promising: Fulham away is not a particularly 'easy' fixture; Palace away certainly isn't.)

If you'd bought him for Gameweek 14, that would have been a Type 2 decision. Was there really any evidence in the Leeds game of a decisive change in mentality, confidence, style of play (or in team tactics, that might give him more scoring opportunities...)? Not really. And that good performance was only against Leeds, who are struggling at the bottom of the table. Moreover, there were two further Premier League games within the coming week, and we might reasonably have expected that Foden would get short minutes in these games - or perhaps be rested completely for one of them - and/or might have been inhibited a little by fatigue. I would say, getting Foden in GW14 was essentially just chasing last week's points; there was not yet any convincing rationale for buying him.

The interesting question is whether, after two outstanding displays in quick succession, it would have a Type 3 decision to get Foden in Gameweek 15. I would say NO. Foden had just played twice within a few days; and there was a crucial Champions League tie away to Real Madrid coming up the following midweek - and he did indeed get short minutes in this next match. Also, Sunderland were much the best of the three EPL teams he'd faced in this remarkable week - although they produced an uncommonly poor performance on this occasion, and, despite playing only just over an hour, Foden again managed to come up with a goal.

Acquiring him didn't really become a Type 3 decision rather than Type 2 until Gameweek 16; and arguably perhaps not even then. In the wake of the Real Madrid game, there was again a risk that Foden might be rested or subbed off early. And Crystal Palace are one of the best teams City have faced this season, the strongest defence in the league (after Arsenal's); especially away from home, a City win could not have been confidently predicted. Moreover, it is statistically extremely improbable that any player will achieve 4 double-digit hauls in a row (has it ever been done before??) - and while that wouldn't argue against acquiring Foden for this game, it should counsel that it was unreasonable to expect another very big points return from him. And yet - astoundingly - he did produce yet another haul! But that was a once-in-a-blue-moon freak; and if you bet on that, you were lucky rather than brilliant.

This might be a rare case where there was in fact no 'Goldilocks Zone' for acquiring Foden. There have been good reasons to doubt if he would be able to extend this scoring streak in each gameweek that it has continued; and the calculus on this was greatly complicated by the December fixture congestion and the huge importance of City's looming Champions League clash. In each of those four - closely packed-together - gameweeks, there were reasonable arguments for remaining hesitant about acquiring Foden: It was becoming increasingly unlikely in each match that he would produce another successive big haul, and increasingly likely that Pep might rest him. 

Moreover, Doku had been a very attractive pick from City for a while, and Cherki was just becoming so - before Foden suddenly caught fire. And if you already had one of these (or perhaps Nico O'Reilly; albeit that he's in a different position category, that pick would still be eating into your club quota from City), it would not have been unreasonable to hang on to them, in preference to Foden - whose newfound burst of form might well have quickly fizzled out again. And even if you had fancied bringing Foden it, it was still a somewhat speculative pick - so early in the emerging hot spell, after such a long barren streak, after such a disappointing season last year - and it might not have been a leading transfer priority; especially as the mounting toll of injuries and suspensions in the bleak midwinter was using up most of the available stock of Free Transfers for the majority of FPL managers (even with the bonanza of extra transfers we were just given in in GW16).

Perhaps, perhaps... transferring in Foden has jumped straight from a Type 2 to a Type 4 decision!

However, I would suggest that acquiring Foden now, for Gameweek 17, is probably the Type 3, 'Goldilocks Zone' moment. 

Yes, paradoxical as it may seem, I think he's only become a really unassailably strong pick now - when his super-hot streak is (almost certainly?) over. You will have missed 55 points from 4 games in the last fortnight; but a fortnight ago, that was completely unforeseeable; and even as the fortnight played out, it remained hugely improbable. You shouldn't suffer any self-recrimination for missing out on the benefits of such a bizarre freak performance.

But now, we have seen clear evidence that Foden - and his team - are playing extraordinarily well; and this does seem to be a sustained shift in performance. Moreover, they're in a pretty soft run of fixtures still, with only the New Year game against Chelsea offering a significantly formidable opponent in the next month or so (and at least that one's at home). At this point, it is definitely looking foolhardy to resist buying him any longer.

With the benefit of hindsight, we would all realise that Gameweek 13 was the ideal time to have brought him in. With the benefit of a crystal ball, we could have realised that he would become 'essential' in Gameweek 14.... or 15,... or 16. But we do not enjoy those two benefits. And without them, it was reasonable enough to hold off buying Foden until now. Most of the FPL managers I consider 'smart' have not bought him yet (the few that do have him, I think had punted on him earlier in the season - and had probably only stuck with him thus far because they'd had other higher-priority problems to address with their transfers); but I anticpate that the majority of them will be going in for him now.

Alas, it is now statistically very unlikely that Foden will achieve yet another massive points-haul in the next game - even against defensively flakey West Ham. And you can be pretty damn sure that he won't rack up another 50-odd points over the next 4 or 5 games. But he is in sensational form, and has some inviting fixtures coming up.

If you already got him in the last few gameweeks, good for you; but you were taking a gamble on him, and were fortunate that it paid off so extraordinarily well. Now, though, it really is looking as if all of us should join you.

Nobody gets a double-digit haul FOUR times in a row!!

Well, OK, Phil Foden just did! But it almost never happens.

Even really exceptional players won't often manage a double-digit return more than 4 or 5 times a season. To get even 2 such big hauls back-to-back is fairly uncommon; a string of 3 is very rare; 4 or 5 in a row is possible, it will happen occasionally, but... it's a real 'Black Swan Event', incredibly unlikely. [Actually, I'm not sure it has ever happened before. FPL put up a post on their Facebook page on Monday suggesting that Foden's 4-in-a-row was a "first time in history" feat; but they neglected to specify if this was a first just for him, or for anyone.]

Basically,... the longer a sequence of big hauls extends, the less likely it is to continue. You could, with relative safety, bet a large amount of money that Foden will get a more modest return in Gameweek 17 (even though he's at home, against West Ham!); and if, by some freak of nature, he does manage another 10+ points haul in that game, you can bet your house that he won't do it again in Gameweek 18.

That's not at all to say that Phil Foden (or Harry Wilson, who's also just racked up 4 good hauls back-to-back - although the 2nd and 3rd were only 8-pointers; or Bruno Fernandes, who's posted 3 double-digit returns in his last 4 games) would be a bad pick at the moment; far from it. [I considered the Foden case in a lot more detail a couple of days later.]

But you should be realistic in your expectations. When you buy in a player because he's just had 1 or 2 (or 3, or 4....) really good hauls in a short space of time, you shouldn't be counting on him doing it again immediately, this week. That is statistically very unlikely. You should accept that he's probably 'due' a blank or two now; and you shouldn't quickly get impatient with your new purchase if that happens. You should be buying players for a run of games - at least the next 3 or 4 fixtures, hopefully more like twice that many - not just the next game. And you should be happy if he averages a decent points-return over that run.

Being unreasonably greedy in your points-expectations of a player is a recipe for disappointment, frustration,.... and further rash, impulsive transfers to try to 'put things right' (when there's probably nothing actually wrong - apart from the fact you were hoping for something absurd).

If a player can bring you, say, 3 returns of 6-8 points over the next 5 games, that's a very good result. You should be more than satisfied with that - not fretting that his little sequence of 12 or 15-pointers suddenly dried up as soon as you bought him.

Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 16

I always think of December as 'Random Month': mounting exhaustion, mostly dreadful weather, and a slew of unpredictable 'rest rotations' lead to some yo-yo-ing form and a lot of unexpected results. At least on this Saturday, the sun shone... (although the second two games kicked off after dark!)... and the results all went as you'd expect. But the relegation favourites, Wolves, Burnley, Leeds, and West Ham, all put up significantly more of a fight this time, while Liverpool and Chelsea suddenly got much better again, and Forest handed out a spanking to Spurs; and the final game on Monday night ended up being a ridiculous biff-bang! And there were again a lot of rotations in the lineups... and a lot of players dropping out of games with muscle strains.

Cole Palmer's back on the scoresheet - with a slick finish from a delightfully weighted through-ball from Gusto - but he says he's still struggling with the groin injury, and, for the second week running, was withdrawn from the action a few minutes shy of the hour; so, despite a handy 6-point haul, I think my warning yesterday that we should wait a while before thinking of bringing him back was warranted. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall became the latest victim of the seasonal injury crisis, having to come off with a thigh strain after just 15 minutes. Chelsea won this one fairly comfortably, although Grealish wasted a couple of good chances in the second-half, and Ndiaye hit a post. Garnacho also squandered a couple of the game's best opportunities, one in either half, and a scorching free-kick from Reece James was well tipped over by Pickford.

Arne Slot seems to have managed to smooth things over with Mo Salah, who looked relaxed and cheerful at Anfield - despite again starting on the bench. And it was somewhat fortuitous that he got the chance to come on after just 25 minutes when fill-in right-back Joe Gomez broke down with a muscular problem (although conspiracy theorists may suspect that this was partly pre-planned, perhaps even to the extent of Gomez faking his injury...?); there being no remaining fit defensive options on his bench, Slot had to shift Szoboszlai to right-back, opening up Salah's favourite spot on the right flank. (It had looked as if they might lose Szoboszlai too, when he turned his ankle badly and seemed to be in a lot of pain; he managed to run it off in this game, but I suspect he'll be limping now, and might be a doubt for next weekend.) Salah had a fairly lively game, and was conspicuously doing his best to be a 'team player' - tracking back a little bit, and looking for teammates to pass the ball to rather than hogging it himself. He even clocked an assist for the perfect inswinging corner which Ekitike - strangely unopposed - headed powerfully home at the far post. Alas, he didn't quite complete the perfect fairytale, as substitute Chiesa unselfishly squared the ball to him after a late breakaway by the pair, but Mo shanked it over the bar! Liverpool were a bit lucky to be able to grab such an early lead, with a dreadful pass out of the corner by Baleba gifting them possession on the edge of box and enabling Ekitike to volley into the roof of the net after just 45 seconds. Liverpool utterly dominated the first half after that, but couldn't carve out any more clearcut chances; and after the break, Brighton came back into the game, with Diego Gomez just failing to convert two of the game's best chances, as well as setting up Gruda for a cross-shot that fizzed just wide of the post. Gomez, though, was probably rather fortunate to stay on the pitch after a chest-high lunge on Wirtz; there wasn't much force in the contact, but it was a wild, wild kick and very high: those get a red 9 times out of 10.

Burnley actually played some decent football going forward, and their attacking numbers, including their final xG, were - somewhat surprisingly - slightly better than Fulham's. Unfortunately, their defending has become absolutely dire, worse even than Leeds's or Wolves's. I have serious doubts as to whether Scott Parker has any idea how to sort this out (he always comes across as pretty clueless in his post-match interviews), and I suspect he'll be the next manager to be sacked; something needs to change soon at Burnley, if they are to have any hope of escaping the drop. Although Fulham will be ruing the couple of dreadful defensive lapses that almost let Burnley back into the game, they produced an excellent attacking performance: Emile Smith Rowe was again superb (apart from one awful back-pass that nearly gave away a goal!) in the central playmaker-and-goal-poacher role, but was again slightly upstaged by Harry Wilson, who bagged a late third goal to add to his assists for the first two.

More selection chaos at Arsenal to challenge the nerves of long-suffering FPL managers! Timber and Saliba, who had both appeared to be still major doubts on Friday, were able to start the game alongside each other in central defence on Saturday evening, while Hincapie was having to fill in at left-back; but Ben White pulled up with a thigh-strain after half an hour, and had to be replaced at right-back by Myles Lewis-Skelly (although, exasperatingly, he was deemed to have only stepped on to the pitch a few seconds after the 30-minute mark, and so gets no clean sheet points - despite playing well over 60 minutes without conceding; the FPL rules can be cruel sometimes!). Odegaard was unexpectedly rested, giving Eze another start. And there was further seasonal woe when Arteta withdrew Eze, Martinelli, and Zubimendi a little shy of the hour, robbing anyone who owned them of a precious 2 additional points. Arsenal survived a big early scare when a solo break by Hwang left the entire Arsenal defence sprinting the length of the field in a vain attempt to catch him (an effort which resulted in White pulling his muscle), but unfortunately his shot from the edge of the box didn't have enough power to trouble David Raya. Apart from that, it was all one-way traffic, but the league leaders just didn't have much of a cutting edge and produced few clear chances - until Wolves began to tire in the last 20 minutes or so. It took a strange slice of luck to get the breakthrough goal, with a Saka corner just eluding Johnstone, striking the inside of the far post, and then cannoning into the goal off the back of the unfortunate keeper's shoulder. But Arteta's men then suffered another huge scare when they conceded an equaliser in the final seconds of regular time. Fate again smiled on them when Yerson Mosquera headed a Saka cross past his own keeper a few minutes later. Wolves are starting to look a lot better defensively (too late to do them any real good; but their goal for the season must now surely be to avoid setting a new lowest-points record), while Arsenal are still not really looking like champions (has their 'winter wobble' begun....?).

The 0=3 scoreline at Selhurst Park didn't fairly reflect the balance of the game at all: Oliver Glasner said afterwards, not unreasonably, that he thought his side's performance had perhaps been even better than in their victory over City in the Cup Final in May; they recorded 16 attempts on goal and had a far higher xG than their visitors - but City converted nearly all of their chances, while the home side couldn't, with Mateta and Ismaila Sarr being notably wasteful a couple of times, while Pino and the excellent Wharton both rattled the woodwork. There is also a strong case that Palace should have been able to pull it back to 1-1 with a penalty, and perhaps even seen Donnarumma sent off. The big keeper had flattened Mateta in the box, and, although he clearly got a hand on the ball, he was also very obviously using his legs to take the player down, to make sure; touching the ball isn't an absolute defence when you wipe an opponent out that cynically. Doku was an unexpected omission in this game, having suffered a leg injury in training late in the week. And Phil Foden, despite having a mostly fairly quiet game (and being gently criticised by Pep afterwards for a below-par performance), came up with yet another goal from distance to extend his absurd scoring streak even further.

Matz Sels, yet another player who's been suffering from a muscle strain this week, gave way to his new Brazilian understudy, John Victor, against Spurs. Forest's trio of goals were all somewhat freakish: an easy smash-and-grab after Vicario played a hospital pass to Archie Gray on the edge of his area, a 30-yard curler from Hudson-Odoi that was probably a misshit cross, and a 23-yard belter out of nowhere from Ibrahim Sangaré. However, the margin was thoroughly deserved; Spurs were never in the game at all, and might easily have lost by twice as many. One fears that Frank's job will now be very much on the line, and that perhaps even a Christmas sacking may be on the cards. Sangaré was a most improbable candidate for the performance of the week; only around 7,500 FPL managers own him - and I'd guess most of them left him on the bench!

Newcastle yet again looked short of energy and inventiveness after a European game in the week, and were comfortably contained by a combative Sunderland. The game would surely have been doomed to remain goalless but for Woltemade's unfortunate 'Own-Goal of the Season'! However, Brian Brobbey should surely have been sent off for crunching Miley's ankle, when he'd already picked up a booking for dissent - that might have completely changed the course of the game.

Villa, having to start Bizot and Lindelof instead of Martinez and Pau Torres because of injuries, were a little shakier defensively than they have been of late, and West Ham got off to a dream start when Matheus Fernandes nicked the ball off Konsa on the edge of the box and fired past the back-up keeper from a tight angle. The visitors, though, equalised almost immediately when Mavropanos headed a John McGinn cross into his own net. It continued to be a very even, end-to-end sort of game; and West Ham were really desperately unlucky not to have claimed the winner with a neat cross-shot from Bowen which was ruled out for offside: again, no SAOT graphic was offered to justify the call, and to the naked eye it looked as if he could only have been 'off' by the thickness of the shirt over his shoulder - an unjust decision, even if technically a 'correct' one. It's also a bit of a turn-up that Morgan Rogers, who is more of a support player than a goalscorer, and had only notched 3 goals previously this season, here bagged 2, the decisive second being a 25-yard banger.

Brentford absolutely dominated their visitors, Leeds, especially in the first-half, but just weren't able to make it count. They can feel slightly aggrieved that a penalty awarded by the referee for a rather minor bit of holding on Dango Ouattara was subsequently overruled by VAR, apparently for the forward's having been 'offside' by the thickness of his eyebrow. Jordan Henderson was a little fortunate to be credited with a goal, since his effort looked as if it was heading just the wrong side of the post until it deflected off a defender. Plucky Leeds came back very strongly in the last 20 minutes, and nabbed a late equaliser with a Calvert-Lewin header. Big Dom has somehow come into a bit of form again over the last month: he suddenly finds himself on his best scoring run in over 5 years!

And then, damn, the gameweek ends with a crazy humdinger of a goal-fest at Old Trafford: Tavernier and Bruno Fernandes both banging in spanking free-kicks, Semenyo and Cunha both dramatically ending their dry spells. However, it looks rather as though some very dodgy defending may have been as much responsible for the ridiculous 4-4 final score as these occasional moments of individual brilliance. There were a couple of moments of mild controversy: United felt play should have been stopped before Evanilson netted Bournemouth's second equaliser, because Dalot was on the floor with an apparent head injury; Dalot was also involved in an angry confrontation with Semenyo, in which the Ghanaian forward briefly put his hand on the side of the full-back's neck - leading to some speculation about whether such an angrily 'raised hand' might warrant a red card (no; they both got yellows for the contretemps, which seems fair).

The FPL 'Team of the Week' isn't looking quite so crazy as it usually has so far this season - although goals from defenders (again!!) are always a bit of a surprise; and surely almost no-one was backing Sangaré or Hudson-Odoi, or even Gusto for big points. And of the 10 most popular forwards, only Haaland and Ekitike produced anything this week: Thiago, Mateta, Joao Pedro, Gyokeres, Richarlison and Watkins all drew a blank, Welbeck barely got on the field, and Woltemade somehow managed a nul-pointer! Many, many FPL managers were stuck with 1 or 2 of those non-performers in their lineup. The splurge of additional Free Transfers granted us for the approach of AFCON this week has led to some frenzied activity in the transfer market, with probably the majority of stil active managers using all or most of them straight away as a 'mini-Wildcard': that means there's probably more variety between squads than we've seen for a while, and certainly a lot of difference from last week's lineups. This has led to it being a particularly polarizing week: it looks as if a substantial majority are below - perhaps fairly well below - the fairly modest 'global average' of 60 points, but there's a long, long tail on our distribution curve, with many people getting hauls in the 80s and 90s, and quite a lot breaching the ton (although most of those might have been exploiting Bench Boost or Free Hit chips, or, a few of them, perhaps even the Triple Captain). Popular new picks Phil Foden and Harry Wilson rewarded their purchasers very handsomely; the very reasonable alternatives of Rayan Cherki and Emile Smith Rowe, not quite so much; and anyone who'd gone without any of these - or Saka, Bruno Fernandes, or Morgan Rogers, the other fairly well-owned players who produced well this time - probably had a fairly miserable gameweek! While anyone who brought in Dominic Calvert-Lewin for Nick Woltemade must be in possession of an uncommonly reliable crystal-ball.....

At least there haven't been too many egregious refereeing howlers; just the one instance of rather questionable leniency towards Diego Gomez when he planted his boot in the side of Florian Wirtz's ribs, Brian Brobbey even more mystifyingly escaping a sending-off for a bad second-yellow foul, a possible penalty for Palace, and an impossibly tight offside against West Ham to deny them a winning goal. On top of that, the large number of goals, a few unexpected rotations, early injuries, and early substitutions make this at least a 5 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.

The Palmer Conundrum

Now that Cole Palmer seems finally ready to return to regular action, after missing pretty much the whole season so far with a succession of niggling injuries, FPL managers are being confronted with the difficult decision of when - or whether - to transfer him into their squads.

With Mo Salah having proved to be worthless this season, and - so far - Isak and Watkins having failed to stake any claim on our attention either, there really hasn't been much pressure on budget in the 2025/26 FPL season; but there is always some budget-pinch. (Player spending always expands to consume whatever funds you have available...)  With Haaland still being, for now, that great rarity, a true FPL 'essential', and fiendishly expensive (especially if you didn't have him from the start of the season, but only acquired him after his price had begun to shoot up further!), and other moderately expensive players like Thiago and Woltemade and the top Arsenal or Palace defenders also having become 'must-haves' for most FPL managers, there isn't that much spare cash knocking around for anyone.

Hence, this really becomes a Saka/Palmer Conundrum: Bukayo Saka is the only similarly priced player, and one of the only midfielders at any price-point who's currently playing well and producing points; so, if you fancy acquiring Palmer, the only convenient pathway to him is to swap out Saka. There doesn't seem to be any reasonable way to afford both of them. And if you don't have Saka (rather surprisingly, only 21.5% of FPL managers do at the moment), it's still going to be awkward to juggle your budget around to accommodate such an expensive new acquisition as Palmer - probably requiring the use of multiple transfers (unless you had a lot of unspent money somehow swilling around in the kitty...).

Now, I am a huge fan of Palmer. And I do believe that he is a slightly 'better' player than Saka, both in real-world terms and for FPL purposes (though it's a foolhardy and unnecessary comparison - they are different types of player, with different strengths and weaknesses): Palmer has more variety in his game (though that's very largely down to how their managers make use of the two players), is more the principal playmaker (where Saka is merely a primus inter pares amongst many strong attacking options, and largely plays second-fiddle to Odegaard as the main creative force in the team), and - when really on song - is an even more prolific provider of both goals and assists.

But there's the crux of the matter. Palmer went through a long spell last year - most of the second-half of the season - where his FPL productivity fell off a cliff. It wasn't really his fault; the rest of the team had stopped performing around him. But that continues to be a problem with Chelsea: they can be astoundingly brilliant in individual games or short runs of games, but Enzo Maresca still doesn't seem to have been able to build any lasting consistency or resilience into their play. And that has continued to be the case this season, with embarrassing losses to the likes of Brighton, Manchester United, Sunderland and Leeds interspersed among some much more impressive performances. 

So, even 'peak' Palmer might fail to produce very much if the rest of his team is misfiring. And after such an extended lay-off, it will surely take him a little while to get back to his best. He was pulled after less than an hour against Bournemouth last week, and was immediately given a precautionary rest again, rather than being brought along as a bench option for the Champions League game against Atalanta on Tuesday. He's not physically anywhere near 100% yet; and recovering full mental sharpness might take a bit longer still. 

Furthermore, Chelsea's upcoming fixtures aren't the best from now through till the beginning of January: Newcastle and City away, and defensively solid Everton, Villa and Bournemouth at home.

For me, this is clearly a wait-and-see decision. In present circumstances, it would be far too much of a risk to go in for Palmer straight away, before he's shown that he's recovered his best form; and also far too disruptive of your existing squad, if you had to sacrifice Saka (or one or more of your other more expensive players) for him, and/or make multiple other changes to rebalance your budget. [Well, damn, he did immediately come up with a very nice goal against Everton in Gameweek 16. But he said afterwards that he's still recovering from the groin problem, and he was again withdrawn a few minutes shy of the hour-mark. So, I stand by my assessment here that he's probably still some weeks away from being anywhere near his best again.]

Saka might prove to be expendable - though largely because there are so many rival claimants to a squad place from the limited club quota at Arsenal. Their defence is so superior to every other team's that we'll probably all want Gabriel again as soon as he's back, while also hanging on to another of their defenders (most probably Timber or Calafiori). Rice is looking like he could be a more consistent midfield points-producer than Saka this year. And there will probably be other attacking options - Trossard, particularly, but also perhaps Havertz or Merino or Martinelli on occasion - who merit consideration for short spells when they hit a scoring streak.

Saka, although he's been playing very well, hasn't yet produced the big points that we've often seen from him in the past (especially in the opening third of last season). And maybe he won't - as Arteta usually imposes a very limited and disciplined role on him, out wide on the right; and, as opponents get more used to these patterns of attack, they defend against them better, often double-teaming the tricky Saka when he gets near the box. 

I have a feeling that Saka is on the brink of exploding again in FPL: and today's game against Wolves would be a prime opportunity for him to do so! But I suspect that, this season, he will probably only contribute big FPL points in short 'hot streaks' - and we might find ourselves looking to move him in and out of FPL squads to take advantage of these, rather than relying on him as a long-term hold. Indeed, even when on such a hot streak - even when he's producing better than Palmer - we might still find ourselves able to do without him, because there are three or more Arsenal players who are even more worth having in those games. (YES - because of the way FPL works, requiring you to balance so many factors of available budget, points-per-pound value, differential scoring and points spreads across position categories, and restricted club quota, Palmer [or anyone else] can be the best midfield pick without being the highest midfield points-producer.)

I also think that Palmer will recapture his best form again at some point this season, possibly quite soon. And when he does, he'll probably be more worth having than Saka - or anybody else. But..... NOT YET. Wait and see.

Dilemmas of the Week - GW16 (25/26)

Not many major new injuries seem to have emerged from this week's European games (but suspensions, especially for accumulated yellow cards, will be a hazard throughout this month), although there are a bothersome number of nebulous 'doubts' - which I feel are even more of a hassle than definite exclusions, because of the complete uncertainty about whether they'll start. Unfortunately, this is not feeling like a good gameweek for a Bench Boost (or even the Free Hit!) because of this. 

And although the European competitions are out of the way for six weeks now, there may still be an increased risk of rotations at Chelsea, Manchester City, Brentford, Newcastle and Fulham, who are all involved in League Cup Quarter-Finals next week, (Arsenal and Crystal Palace don't play their q-f until the Tuesday before Christmas.)

I'm trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 16?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Jurrien Timber supposedly picked up a knock last weekend which resulted in him being a late withdrawal from the midweek game against Brugge; very uncertain whether he'll be OK to start against Wolves on Saturday - and if he can't, Arsenal are getting stretched dangerously thin in central defence (is there a chance Rice or Norgaard might have to deputise there??). Declan Rice also missed the Brugge game because of illness, but the man is a tank and will probably bounce back straight away....?  Young Max Dowman has also picked up an ankle injury in training this week, which sounds moderately serious; he hadn't been getting many minutes so far anyway, but it's unfortunate that he now can't be involved at all until perhaps the end of January.

Emi Martinez suffered a recurrence of his niggling back-strain this week, and had to drop out of the squad for Thursday's game against Basel (and his understudy Marco Bizot really did not impress in that one). And Pau Torres suffered a calf-strain in that game, which looks likely to keep him out this weekend - Villa too are getting stretched very thin at the back; with Mings still unavailable, presumably Victor Lindelof will finally get a chance.

Marcos Senesi had to come off against Chelsea last week, feeling some tightness in his quad muscle - unclear how bad that is, Iraola was trying to be upbeat about it; but yet another 'doubtful' starter for this gameweek.

Liam Delap had to come off against Bournemouth last time after landing heavily on his right shoulder: nothing broken or dislocated apparently, but still likely to be out for a few weeks (he hadn't been playing very well anyway, and Marc Guiu really deserves a run of starts in his place; although if Palmer is now starting in the middle, Joao Pedro might shift back into a more conventional No. 9 spot). Wesley Fofana is also a doubt, having had to come off with vision problems after being kicked in the face in Tuesday's defeat at Atalanta; it sounds like it was bruising around the eye that was the problem rather than a concussion, but the 'protocols' might still be in play - and even the eye problem might not be trivial: another big doubt for the weekend. Cole Palmer was omitted from the trip to Italy, but that appears to have been merely precautionary, as he's feeling his way back from a long absence; he lasted nearly an hour against Bournemouth last week, and appeared to be moving easily.

Daniel Munoz had to have surgery on the 'minor' knee problem that unexpectedly kept him out of last week's game: probably just a cartilage issue, as he's apparently expected back in just a month or so. Jean-Philippe Mateta was omitted from Thursday's Conference League match in Ireland due to an ongoing knee niggle, but Glasner doesn't seem to think it will keep him out of the City match.

Ryan Sessegnon missed the Palace game last week because of a hamstring strain suffered in training; not too serious, but going to keep him out this week as well.

Cody Gakpo suffered a muscle injury of some kind against Leeds last week, and is now expected to be out for some weeks. At least this eases much of the uncertainty around Slot's selections: presumably Isak is now safe for a while as the No. 9 (and that might give him the confidence to rediscover his form of last year?), while the much better Ekitike can be guaranteed a regular start on the left, and Wirtz will operate more centrally - where he's likely to be more dangerous. Back-up midfielder Endo Wattara has also suffered an ankle injury in training, which will make him unavailable for a while.

John Stones has suffered yet another leg muscle problem, and is likely to be out for some weeks. He's only been a very occasional starter for City anyway; but this is an unfortunate setback for his England hopes.

Matthijs de Ligt missed last week with a back problem, and seems to be still not right now. Benjamin Sesko was apparently ready to be considered for a return after being out for over a month with a knee problem, but somehow came down with a bout of food poisoning this week. (The things people will do to avoid playing for Ruben Amorim...!!)

Joelinton had to come off in the midweek game against Leverkusen with a groin strain. Will that mean another start for Lewis Miley - or Joe Willock?

Matz Sels has also been suffering with a tight groin and was rested for the Europa League match against Utrecht - but Dyche is hoping he'll be OK again for the weekend.

Destiny Udogie missed last week's game against Brentford, and it's now been confirmed he has a hamstring strain which will keep him out for at least a few weeks.

Two of Wolves's more dangerous players, Jean-Ricner Bellegarde and Marshall Munetsi, both suffered muscle injuries in Monday's game against United, and look likely to miss at least the next six weeks.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Sunderland's Luke O'Nien is beginning a three-match ban for a 'serious foul play' red card last week against City. Moises Caicedo and Lewis Cook are serving the last part of their three-match bans this week. Burnley's Lucas Pires has a one-match ban for his 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity' offence against Newcastle. And their occasional midfielder Hannibal has just received a four-match ban for spitting at Leeds supporters in a game back in October.

Riccardo Calafiori, Kyle Walker, Kevin Schade, and Conor Bradley are the latest players to be suspended for picking up a fifth yellow card of the season. Here are the other players now getting close to a 'totting up' suspension.

Mo Salah has reportedly had 'peace talks' with Arne Slot; but given the extent of the rift between them, it seems unlikely that these can achieve much. In fact, Mo's latest mutterings seem to be suggesting that he'll only be turning up at Anfield today to 'say goodbye' to the fans. He hasn't been remotely worth having for FPL this season anyway; but, sadly, it does rather look as if his time at Liverpool is over.

It was widely expected that players competing in the African Cup of Nations tournament would have to depart at some point during the last week; but, after much manoeuvring behind the scenes as clubs have lobbied hard for players to be allowed to stay with them as long as possible, FIFA seems to have decided that their clubs don't have to release them until Monday 15th December, less than a week before the tournament kicks off. (And Manchester United have crowbarred themselves a further dispensation that will allow their trio of Mbeumo, Diallo, and Mazraoui to remain with them for their game against Bournemouth on Monday evening.) So,... none of these players should be missing this weekend. But we'll lose quite a few for Gameweek 17.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

As I predicted some weeks ago, Ebere Eze looks to have been instantly marginalised by Martin Odegaard's return; he's much less significantly involved if having to start out on the left - and last week was so ineffectual against Villa that he was replaced by Trossard at half-time.

Jean-Philippe Mateta, as I also foresaw, has been pretty unimpressive of late; and there are certainly a number of far stronger forward options you might replace him with.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Fulham players are suddenly becoming very appealing assets, because of their upcoming trio of 'gimme' fixtures; Harry Wilson is the most-favoured option there, but as a possible alternative, I particularly like the prospects for Emile Smith Rowe - and also United's Mason Mount, and Newcastle's Tino Livramento and Lewis Hall.

Phil Foden is on a hot streak, of course; but those tend to burn out very quickly - and he has become rather over-popular. I still fancy Jeremy Doku or Rayan Cherki (although he was chided by Pep last week for his impudent Rabona cross to set up Foden's headed goal!!) as potentially stronger picks from City for the long-term.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

Picks of the Week (7)

DISCLAIMER: I always refuse to identify myself as any sort of FPL 'guru' or 'mentor' or 'expert'. And I have previously on this blog expressed my reluctance to share many details of my own selections, or to make very specific player recommendations.

However, in addition to occasionally critiquing common 'sheep picks' of the moment (not all necessarily outright bad, but ridiculously over-popular selections), I will occasionally try to highlight one or two players who seem not yet to be very widely owned but are starting to look very tempting prospects.

I will generally try to come up with at least 2 options per week - so that it doesn't look like I'm making a sole recommendation. And these suggestions are intended to be simply 'worth thinking about', not at all 'must-haves'. (And some weeks, most weeks, I'll have nothing.....)

Now, these ideas for Gameweek 16 of this season are perhaps even more speculative than usual.... I reiterate that none of the prospects I tend to discuss in this series are categorically unmissable opportunities, they're more intriguing possibilities that are perhaps being unduly overlooked. And there may be more of those than usual this week because so many people are using up all or most of their AFCON Free Transfer bonanza straight away - making this one of the busiest weeks of transfer activity in the whole season (very probably the busiest!); and yet there are a relative handful of 'most popular transfers' dominating that activity so far, and it doesn't include any of these guys. I am not trying to say my trio below are 'better' than any of those many much, much more popular picks; but I do think they are worth some consideration.

So, first up, I give you Mason Mount. Of course, the reservations about him would be the fact that he's playing for Manchester United, who, though greatly improved this season, are still showing rather inconsistent and unconvincing form; that form might well get even worse when they lose their - so far - only consistent goal-threat in Mbeumo, and one of their most potentially game-changing creative talents in Amad Diallo to AFCON next week; and lastly, of course, his terrible injury record since joining the club has undermined a lot of people's faith in his being able to stay fit for any length of time (or his being able to inspire his manager to trust him with regular minutes). But to counter that, I would say that we know from his performances at Chelsea - and for United, whenever he's managed a start - just how good he can be; and he has looked absolutely on fire recently, scoring a goal in each of his two recent starts for United. Moreover, I think the AFCON departures actually work in his favour: the most obvious slot for him to slip into is as a replacement for Mbeumo in the right-sided 'deep attacker' role; and the only other person who can really fill that slot is Diallo. So, if he can stay fit, he's pretty much guaranteed a start, I think; and probably in the role that gives him the most opportunity to register attacking contributions. And the fixtures are quite encouraging: a very nice run of Wolves, Leeds, and Burnley over the holidays, but recently faltering Bournemouth up next could be a good opportunity too, and Villa and Newcastle aren't too daunting either: Villa have been 'over-performing' dramatically, and are due for a stutter, while Newcastle usually struggle a bit away from home.

Next.... I rather fancy Emile Smith Rowe from Fulham as well. As with Mount, the main problem with him is his poor injury record in the last couple of seasons, and his shortage of starts so far this year, which have raised questions not only about his resilience to knocks, but more generally about his stamina and fitness (it may just be an unfortunate quirk of his physiognomy that he almost always looks just slightly overweight for a professional footballer....). But also like Mount, he has looked absolutely on fire in his last couple of outings for the club, and has an opportunity now to get much more regular gametime, with Alex Iwobi about to head off to AFCON. Moreover, it would appear that he's likely to be used in a central creative role, the kind of 'No. 10' space where he really thrives,... and that he's also now looking to break into the box with late runs pretty often, which may give him the opportunity to pick up quite a few goals as well as assists. This might be only a short-term punt, and I do have worries about how badly Fulham's already precarious form may suffer with the sudden loss of not only Iwobi but also Bassey and Chukwueze to the Nigeria squad, but.... their next three fixtures look very inviting: Burnley, Forest, and West Ham. The most popular Fulham transfer in FPL this week has been Harry Wilson, and I can see the appeal: he's been a fairly regular starter this year, and has been in pretty consistently outstanding form - with slightly better than one attacking contribution per two starts, including a few absolute bangers of goals. But he's had 335,000 Fantasy managers buy him this week, compared to less than 13,000 so far for Smith Rowe; and that's an unreasonable imbalance - it implies that people are just jumping on a bandwagon without fully considering the possible alternatives. As I said in this key post on the real meaning of 'differential' back at the start of this season, it is a mistake to suppose that there's any advantage in simply favouring less popular, lower-owned players in FPL; but.... if there's really nothing objectively to choose between two possible picks, then ownership level should be the tiebreaker. And I really believe that Smith Rowe's prospects in the next few gameweeks look just about as good as Wilson's, and possibly just a little bit better - but no-one's on him at the moment!

Finally, with Arsenal currently missing their three first-choice centre-backs to injury (which makes their remaining defenders slightly less secure picks than before; and Calafiori's missing with suspension this week too!), and Palace likely to be without their hugely influential right wing-back Daniel Munoz for at least a month, there's suddenly the scope to try out one or two new options in an FPL defence - and Newcastle full-back Tino Livramento looks like a very appealing possibility. He has looked absolutely sensational since his return from injury a month ago, and has helped to transform the performances of the entire team; he hasn't recorded any FPL returns yet, but that's surely just a matter of time. I am hesitant to back his team in their next game, as the North-East derby can be particularly volatile, and Sunderland this year are looking a really solid team; but they then have Manchester United, Burnley, Leeds, and Wolves in the next 5 weeks - one of the better fixture runs for any team at the moment. I do feel, though, that it's really a bit of a toss-up between him and his left-back teammate, Lewis Hall. Hall, for me, can be even more of an attacking prospect, but.... he doesn't always get so far forward down that flank, because Gordon and Barnes like to stay wide in the final third; and he's more recently back from injury, might not yet be trusted with heavy minutes in the packed holiday schedule.

So - there you have it: my 'Early Christmas Present' - 3 rather less expected 'ones to watch' over the coming weeks!

A little bit of Zen (72)

 

"Fiction reveals truths that reality obscures."

 

Jessamyn West

“Friction reveals truths that lubricant obscures.”

GW

I am never one to back down from an argument...  'Productive dialogue' is always good, I feel; even if it leaves blood on the floor.

Oh, she said 'fiction'? That just makes the joke better.... Still TRUE, though.

[I know, I know: some of these weekly aphorisms are a lot less 'Zen' than others.]

Just because you CAN, it doesn't mean you SHOULD

 

This applies particularly to transfer decisions in FPL: even if you feel there's a really pressing need to use a transfer to make a change right now, there's very likely to be an even more valuable use of it a little later on. Being able to use 2 or more transfers at once can be enormously powerful in expanding the scope of your possible changes and allowing major reallocations of budget.

But this doesn't apply only when using 1 or 2 transfers; it's just as true when making multiple changes at once. You need to be really, really sure that they are all immediately essential - because they're almost certainly not! The possibility of saving some of them for a further multiple change a little later on should not be overlooked.

We are seeing a particularly striking instance of this phenomenon just at the moment, because of the FPL Gnomes' over-generous - pointless - Early Christmas Gift of extra free transfers (supposedly to help tide us over AFCON: a very minor problem for which such additional help is completely unnecessary), so that we all now have a full complement of 5 saved transfers.

Many FPL managers have immediately blown the whole lot in one fell swoop. As I have commented recently on a few of the forums: Some of these extra transfers will almost certainly be more useful at some point in the future. Unlike the first Wildcard (and the extra Free Hit we've been given for the first time this year), this AFCON 'mini-Wildcard' has no time-limit, it can be rolled forward indefinitely... into the next half of the season. 

And keeping at least 1 or 2 of these transfers short-term, to cover a possible winter injury crisis or bad weather postponement, would be more valuable than an immediate splurge of impulse shopping. The thing that saves most people from over-indulging in chasing last week's points through silly 'sheep picks' is that they only have 1 or 2 transfers to use at a time. Doling out 5 at once was an especially inventive piece of cruelty from the FPL Gnomes, a damaging temptation that will just lead a lot of people into making rash and needless changes.

Using up 2 or 3, or maybe even 4 of these windfall transfers straight away would have been fine; but not keeping at least 1 or 2 of them in hand for a rainy day (or a snowy one, or a windy one...), literal or metaphorical, is likely to end in regrets.

And of course, the problem with choosing instant gratification over the delayed alternative is that we know rationally that the delayed gratification will be better for us,... but we can't resist the emotional satisfaction of indulging ourselves right now.

This is a hazard in FPL with playing the Bonus Chips as well: it is very easy to drop them on the first vaguely promising fixture that comes along. But the further into the season you get, the surer you can feel about your players' form and prospects (whether your preferred Triple Captain candidate, or your entire team/squad for the Bench Boost), and about the likely form of all the clubs and the likely outcome of their fixtures. And the nearer you get to the end of the window of availability of use for a chip, the more confident you can be that there are unlikely now to be many - or any - better options in which to play it in the future. Picking an optimum gameweek in which to use a Bonus Chip is very, very difficult; but it's almost never going to be in the opening month or two of the season.

Try to learn the value of waiting....

A bad outcome does not mean it was a BAD DECISION

 

FPL managers have an unfortunate tendency to judge their decisions - and everyone else's - only by the points outcomes that follow from them.

But exact points outcomes are unpredictable, very largely a matter of luck: unknowable before the event.

Therefore, they offer no help to you in refining your decision-making process. And only by doing that, can you hope to improve at the game - and gain more satisfaction in it.

If you were careful, thorough, open-minded and self-aware, and above all well-informed in your deliberations about a selection decision - then it was a good decision, the best decision you could have made in the circumstances.... regardless of the outcome. THAT is all that matters.

Some 'good decisions' in FPL don't pay off; some can turn out wretchedly badly. It doesn't mean they were 'bad decisions'. Whereas many selections that are made hastily, impulsively, based on sentiment or superstition, made in disregard of contrary data or more promising alternative options,.... can produce big points returns: that does not retroactively make them 'good' decisions. They were terrible decisions.... that got undeservedly LUCKY.

It is the quality of the decision-making process, not its ultimate outcome, that is important.

Many will object, "But, oh, how can you say the outcomes are not important? The game is all about how many points you get!"  Yes, indeed. But the thing here is that we have to believe there is ultimately some justice in the game (and there is; not as much as we'd like, but some) and that good decision-making will, over the long run, be more rewarded than bad, impulsive, ill-informed decision-making.

So, you should concentrate on the process. If you become more self-aware about how you make your decisions, you start making better decisions. And better decisions, over time, mostly will produce better results.

If you just make wild bets, chase hunches, follow 'sheep' trends, back your favourite player even when their form has tanked, or succumb to believing in daft superstitions like "Haaland always scores on a Tuesday!" or whatever,.... you might do well occasionally; but you'll never get any better.

In fact, letting yourself get over-excited about poor decisions that brought improbably good results can lead you into further bad habits. That is something you need to be very wary of. All superstitions grow out of doing something dumb that worked once. And all superstitions are ultimately BAD.