Sheep Picks (17)

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are dangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

This is probably the disrecommendation in this series that I feel most hesitant, least confident about, but.... remember, the point of this 'Sheep Pick' category is not that these players have no merit, but that they're dangerously over-popular just at the moment. And going into Gameweek 11 of the 25-26 season, I think that certainly applies to Palace forward Jean-Philippe Mateta.

Mateta is the most transferred-in player this week, by a mile, with 435,000 new owners - and counting (still 5 hours till deadline!). 

Here's why I think those recent purcchasers are probably mistaken:

1)  They're a bit late to the party! Some may use the excuse of the injury news this week about the unaccountably popular Viktor Gyokeres (the week's second most transferred-out player since it was revealed that he was likely to be out-of-action for a few weeks, nearly 300,000 quitting on him in the last few days) giving an additional opportunity/incentive to bring in Mateta. But really, the uptick in his form has been emerging over the last few weeks, and the decisive turn in fixture-difficulty for Palace occurred last week - so, Gameweek 10 was when you really ought to have bought him, if you fancied him.

2)  His numbers really aren't that good. The Bournemouth game was really a bit of a freak result, with both sides being far more open - and downright leaky in defence! - than was expected; and he needed a very soft penalty award to complete his hattrick there, having squandered 3 or 4 of his best opportunities in the match. His chance-conversion rate is actually pretty terrible, one of the most profligate in the league: he scores in games where he gets a lot of chances - but in games where he doesn't enjoy so many chances, he's not likely to get on the scoresheet. If you discount that penalty, he's only got 3 goals in his last 3 league games - which is nothing that remarkable for an 'in-form' striker. And prior to that, he'd only managed 2 goals in 7 games - which is arguably a more accurate reflection of his typical level of performance.

3)  Palace don't have a gimme fixture this week. 'Derby' games are almost always a bit tumultuous and unpredictable. And Brighton, although inconsistent, are a very dangerous opponent, and have shown strongly improving form over the last few weeks. Most of the bookies only have Palace at about 5/4 or 6/5 for the win - and I think that's a little bit generous.

4)  He's not obviously the most appealing pick for this week in his price category. Unless you're swapping him in for Gyokeres (and, presumably, at least 135,000 of his new owners are replacing someone else with him!), the most obvious swap-targets are Nick Woltemade and Joao Pedro. They both have much softer opponents than Palace this week. Admittedly, Woltemade had a bit of a 'mare last weekend; but it looks as though that uncharacterisically 'off day' was caused by some transient problem with injury or illness; prior to that, his recent form had been outstanding. Joao Pedro has been in something of a slump, but we know he has the quality to hurt any opponent; and he has suddenly started to look back to his best in his last two outings, against Spurs and Qarabag in the past week. So, there is really not a compelling case to use up a transfer bringing in Mateta for either of them this week (next gameweek, maybe; Pedro's uptick in form may prove to have been evanescent; and Newcastle's fixtures are a bit challenging in at least 3 - arguably 5 or 6! - of their next 7 games after this week).

5)  Palace without Adam Wharton tend to be much less dangerous. The young midfielder is the crucial progressive passer in their midfield. He was out with an illness last week, and is reportedly still suffering with his fitness this week. If he can't start, or is well below his best because of this, it is much less likely that Palace will produce a good overall performance and achieve a good result.

6)  Palace's upcoming fixtures aren't that easy.  Manchester United, City, and Spurs - even at home - can be very challenging opponents; and Burnley, Fulham, and Leeds, away, might not be pushovers. Bringing Mateta in just for the next 2 matches, against Brighton and Wolves, would be a spendthrift use of transfers!

7)  As ever, there's a club quota issue to keep in mind as well. Palace's defensive record has been so good that most people want at least 1, possibly 2 of their defenders; and Dean Henderson is one of the most appealing goalkeeper picks too. And amongst their attacking players, Ismaila Sarr is often a tempting option - as a fairly inexpensive goalscoring midfielder. If you choose Mateta, you're denying yourself one of these - who are likely to prove more valuable to you in their positions.

8)  Even if he does produce good returns over the next month or so, Mateta might not be an optimum use of budget. He's become a bit expensive now, at 7.9 million pounds; he costs more than Woltemade and Joao Pedro (and Bowen); he costs a lot more than Welbeck, Thiago, Kroupi, and Isidor - who, frankly, have looked in much better form than Mateta. Sesko probably shouldn't be written off, either, as United seem to be slowly getting their shit together somewhat. And a number of budget forward options are suddenly getting a run of starts, and might soon come into contention for inclusion in FPL squads: Callum Wilson, Zian Flemming, Randal Kolo Muani, Igor Jesus,... maybe Liam Delap...  It is quite likely that some of the best attacking midfield talents will start producing again soon: Mbeumo and Trossard should already be 'on the radar' (if not already in the squad!!), and I think it is highly likely that we'll all soon be wanting someone like Saka, Palmer, or Cunha again. There'll be a need to free up some budget to afford players like that; and the most obvious way to do that is by going without higher-priced forwards (Haaland is pretty much essential at the moment; but you could easily go with 2 fairly cheap back-ups - ideally with nice fixture-difficulty rotation!).

9)  The times, they are a-changin'.....  Further to that last point, I think it's very likely that we'll start seeing a number of the most dangerous attacking/creative midfielders, who've been weirdly 'absent' so far this season, return to form/fitness and start producing big FPL returns again. If/when that happens - and it might be soon - we'll probably want to scale back on our forward line. At the moment, most people have built up a strong defensive roster (because that's where most of the points have been coming from so far!), and have often been starting 4 - or occasionally even 5! - of them. That seems likely to continue for a while, as most of the upcoming gameweeks have quite a few seriously unbalanced fixtures in them, and a number of teams (not just Arsenal!) will stand above-average chances of delivering a clean sheet. If we suddenly have more scoring prospects in midfield too, and often want to start 4 or 5 of them (rather than only 3, as has become quite common of late), there will only be room for 2 regular starting forwards - sometimes, perhaps, only 1 (Haaland!!). Now does not seem like a prudent time to be dropping nearly 8-million quid on a forward!

Now, I do rate Mateta; and I do think he's in decent form. He is not by any means a terrible pick, just in terms of his ability and points prospects: there is a very good chance that he will score this week, and/or in a number of the upcoming gameweeks. But in the overall selection context, I see him as an unconvincing choice - he's not clearly better than the closest alternatives, and he's just too damned expensive.