The (likely) story of my season so far

Of course, my season was cut short this year in Gameweek 2, when I was bizarrely locked out of my account by FPL's perpetually useless website - and I was so dismayed and flabbergasted that I couldn't be bothered to set up another new one (this is the third or fourth time this has happened to me in the last half-dozen years).

However, as we're now nearing the third-of-the-way-through-the-season mark, I thought I'd indulge in a bit of playing along in imagination, and review how I think my season probably would be panning out so far.

I went for Sels and Petrovic as a promising rotation pair of keepers at the start of the season. Sels disappointed amid Forest's dip in form around Nuno's departure and replacement with Ange Postecoglou: clean sheets disappeared, and somehow he wasn't even registering that many saves. Fortunately, the Bournemouth defence was holding up much better than many had feared, and Petrovic would soon have displaced him as 'first choice', though he's possiby not quite strong enough to be my regular starter; I think I would have swapped Sels out for Henderson as soon as I could. (Though, by GW4 or 5, Sunderland's Robin Roefs was starting to look a very appealing option.)  Henderson and Petrovic actually enjoyed a pretty good rotaion around their tougher fixtures for a while.

I usually counsel against taking 'too many chances' in the initial squad - and then I don't take my own advice. And Milos Kerkez counted as a bit risky, because he was a new arrival at Anfield and would almost certainly take some time to properly bed in. And he was not free of some risk of rotation with the veteran incumbent in his position, Andy Robertson; although his start, mercifully, proved to be reliable, he was yanked off very early in a few games. And with Liverpool not keeping any clean sheets, despite their winning start to the season, I think I would have soon ditched him - probably for an Everton or Bournemouth defender. Ben White was also perhaps somewhat risky after he'd missed so much of last season with injury, and Timber, Calafiori, and Lewis-Skelly had all impressed in his absence. But I did trust that he'd established first dibs on the right-back slot - and so perhaps it might have been, had he not immediately picked up an injury again. Rank bad luck there! But I would have moved for Calafiori and Senesi as replacements pretty promptly - probably even at the cost of a hit.

I would be well contentt, though, with my other two main picks, Munoz and Van de Ven, at least at first; and with Burnley's attacking left-back Quilindschy Hartman as my cheap bench-filler for the start of the season (though after a month or so it had begun to look as if Sunderland rather than Burnley were the most formidable of the promoted sides and their options might provide more consisttent 'defensive contributions', and even a good number of clean sheets throughout the season). However, I fear I would have lost patience with Van de Ven and his faltering Spurs - before he came up with that improbable brace of goals against Everton for a 23-point haul in Gameweek 9! Van de Ven, I think, would have been sacrificed for early 'defensive points' monster Tarkowski in GW6 or 7.

I also fret that I would have been likely to stick with Calafiori and/or Timber from the Arsenal defence -on the not unreasonable basis that, once established as nailed starters (which hadn't seemed certain, or even likely at the start of the season), they would be slightly more likely than Gabriel to produce the occasional attacking contribution. However, Gabriel, of course, then produced a freak run of form, not only benefitting from a long sequence of clean sheets (a bonanza shared by all his fellow Arsenal defenders), but also racking up improbable numbers of 'defensive contributions' a few times, and picking up a goal and a couple of assists - for a whopping 55-point return from Gameweeks 6-10. It would have hurt to miss out on that;... but I think I would have done. Arsenal's defence became so dominant during that period that it would have been very tempting to bring in Gabriel - or the cheaper Timber - for Tarkowski or Senesi. (Heck, some people were even piling in for 3 Arsenal defenders!!!)

In the midfield, I bet on Palmer rather than Salah (too expensive this year, and obviously going to fall far short of last year's returns - although still likely to be worth considering if he hit any hot streaks; though that signally failed to happen in the opening three months), decided to go without Saka for now (because of Arsenal's tricky early-season fixtures; I got a bit lucky on that risky gamble when he picked up an early injury), and flipped a coin between Cunha and Mbeumo (again, arguably, a risky bet, given their newness to the team, and United's long history of being able to convert gold into dross). Of course, the coin came down on Cunha - who was the one who started more brightly, and then succumbed to an early injury. Palmer too had an injury problem straight away; although it wasn't immediately apparent, inhibiting his performance in the first game, forcing him to withdraw early in the second, missing the next two, and then dropping out quickly again in the fifth: cruel and unusual punishment indeed - tempting you to think that it was no big deal, would only keep him out for a game or two, he might be worth hanging on to.... I'd like to think that I would have offloaded him promptly; but more probably I think I would have kept him until GW5, by which time a lot of damage would have been done.  Cunha, at least, was an easy swap for Mbeumo, who soon started coming good. And Palmer's indisposition would have created an easy opportunity for me to bring in the initially overlooked Semenyo, although I might only have got a couple of decent returns out of him, as his opening hot streak would fizzle after GW7; fortunately, that was an ideal time to swap him out for the returning Saka or the suddenly in-form Trossard.

My mid-budget selections of Ndiaye, Enzo Fernandez, and Mo Kudus looked good at first - although the latter kept showing a lot of promise without delivering very much, and would not, I think, have survived in my squad for more than a few weeks. However, none of the 'usual suspects' among the game's goalscorers and creatives consistently came good in the first few months of the season, and we were left hopefully casting the dice on novelty options. For a long time, the top of the midfielder charts were dominated by fairly unexpected players like promoted Burnley's Jaidon Anthony,.... and a bunch of central midfielders who were doing quite well off the new 'defensive points' and happened to have picked up a random goal or two. (Gravenberch, Caicedo, Zubimendi, Palhinha, Tonali). Kudus I think I would have swapped out for Eze, in his last couple of games for Palace; and then probably swapped him for Anthony, or perhaps Forest's promising new winger, Dan Ndoye. I feel sure I would also have been tempted to go in early for Phil Foden on his eventual return from injury - because of the shortage of other compelling options; though I fear I would probably not have picked him in anticipation of his impressive comeback game against Manchester United, but only for his subsequent run of blanks!!

The only player in that position category who was pretty regularly registering points early on was Antoine Semenyo. I have historically been quite a fan of his; but I grew gadually more sceptical last season - he seems to lack consistency, his hot spells are never sustained for all that long; and I think he suffers a bit from competition with so many other goalscoring creatives in the Bournemouth squad (Kluivert being out of action for much longer than originally anticipated was possibly a major factor in his early success this year). I'd like to think I would have brought him in fairly early, but..... I suspect I might have hesitated until his returns were about to start drying up! And at that time, I would have been tempted by the return of Bukayo Saka - although he was a little bit slow out of the blocks. Trossard was actually the better Arsenal midfielder to be on, from about GW7 onwards; although Rice probably had the better - or at least steadier - long-term prospects. It would have been a tough choice around then between a second Arsenal defender (for me, Gabriel; and then Timber, when he got injured) and a second midfielder (Trossard during his scoring streak).

I would have resisted Grealish, despite his red-hot start - fancying that he was ultimately only an assists man, whereas Ndiaye might offer goals and assists (and I didn't want to be doubled up on one club in one position). Bruno Fernandes, initially a pretty popular selection, I've found eminently avoidable in recent years: only returns well in short streaks - and that seemed even more likely to be the case this season, as Amorim was expected to be playing him in a deeper midfield role. (To be fair, he did show a lot of promise early on, often abandoning his 'pivot' brief to forage forward, and basically trying to carry his struggling team single-handed. But his returns were very up-and-down, with strong Gameweeks 3 and 5 being interspersed with far more disappointing returns, missed penalties, etc....)  I also refused to 'drink the Kool-Aid' on Tijjani Reijnders (probably now destined to be remembered most for the inevitably popular FPL team name 'Breakfast at Tijjani's'!!). He was undoubtedly tempting value-for-money, but City's early-season form didn't overly impress me, and, although he did at least prove to have a regular start nailed down (which I'd initially doubted), I feared that he was usually being played too deep to be a really regular attacking threat, and expected his season goal-haul would be much closer to the 4 that he got in his first season with AC Milan than the 15 he claimed in his second.  [I may yet be proved wrong on this. There is a lot to like about him, and I think he's been one of the best of the league's new arrivals so far. And 4 or 5 goals for a midfielder isn't at all bad; especially for one who only cost 5.5 million at the start of the year But I have a hunch he won't even reach that many. And he's not picking up much on the 'defensive contributions' either....]

The biggest of my opening gambles that failed to pay off was trying to do without Haaland - when he started with a string of big hauls, just as he did last year. I knew that might backfire on me. And with little to spend the money on in midfield, I should have been able to quickly back-track - at least once Palmer and Cunha were ruled out, perhaps by GW2 or 3 (I would surely have had to eat a 'hit' to get it done promptly...). I acknowledged pretty early on that he was, for the time being, a rare must-have this season. However, I don't think I would have got great captaincy returns off him, as I would have often been tempted by rival options, especially in midifeld (and I didn't fancy his chances of a big haul against Bournemouth or Everton - or even Burnley, really) - and yet, again and again, these perfectly rational alternate picks failed to come through, while Haaland knocked in braces.... even when City were playing quite poorly, even against opponents with reasonable defences.

I'd started off with Joao Pedro, Ekitike (another risky punt on a newly-arrived player, but one that paid off for once - though we knew he was only going to be a short-term investment, as likely to be sidelined or dropped into a regular rotation once the Isak deal materialised) and Strand Larsen (yet another early injury victim!!).  That was OK for a little while; but all three of them would probably have to be replaced fairly soon (not ideal, but usually unavoidable at the start of the season!!). I would have had Richarlison for a while as well, after his promising start. But I was quick to recognise the form of Thiago and Woltemade, and would have had them alongside Haaland fairly early on that's still looking a pretty strong trident a third of the way into the season.

At least I avoided the error of piling in prematurely for Isak or Eze - as so many people did, having rashly assumed that they would immediately start for their their new clubs, and immediately be at their best, and immediately have a huge impact. It was obviously going to take Isak a few weeks at least, given his poor conditioning after skipping training with Newcastle for a couple of months; and with Eze, I really worried that it might never happen - as Arsenal's stye of play just wouldn't suit him. He and the team are adapting to each other better than I'd feared, and he made a lively start at his new club, beneftiting enormously from the extended injury absence of Odegaard, which has enabled him to shift into a freer central playmaker role (not one he's likely to keep for long, presumably); but still, he's not the regular game-changer he was at Palace. However, FPL managers who punted on him may feel that their faith was repaid by that one enormous haul he just bagged against Spurs - another one that it was painful to miss out on; but I can't see him repeating a return like that (Spurs were epically bad in that one! Surely no other opponent will give him that much space around the edge of the box?!).

Yes, I'd missed out on the two biggest returners, Semenyo and Haaland, in the early weeks (though would have repented on at least one, possibly both, in time to catch a good bit of that run of returns from them), and was hit by 4 injuries to key picks almost immediately (not the worst run of injuries I've ever suffered, but.... pretty devastating!).  I fear I would also have done pretty poorly with my captaincy, regularly favouring guys who played great games but somehow only came away with 4, 6, 8 points (before doubling them) to show for them; I would have had a few better returns from Haaland and Mbeumo, and I fancied Munoz for Gameweek 12, who came through very handsomely (but got booked, and missed out on defensive points by one 'contribution' - vexing!).

So,  a really, really bad start for me, this year (possibly my worst ever!): I was down around the 3 million mark in Gameweek 1, and must have slipped even lower - probably well outside the top half - with a couple more probably very bad weeks early on. In general, though, fairly steady upward progress was likely thereafter - although I might have suffered heavily for passing on Gabriel during his exceptionally hot run. 

I think I'd have just about made 700 points by now; not sure where that would put me in the global ranking - just about in the top 1,000,000 I should think; or getting pretty close, anyway. And I would have held off using any of my Bonus Chips yet, so would still be trailing the 'early leaders' quite badly - but hoping to make up more ground soon if those chip plays work out nicely for me. That's actually starting to feel pretty 'successful' - after my atrocious start! And it's been a particularly tough season - and a weirdly low-scoring season all-around - .so far for everyone; most of the people I keep tabs on as consistently smart and usually quite high-performing FPL managers are still outside the top 2 or 3 million at the moment! It's nice to be inside the top 200 or 300k for most of the season; but it doesn't always happen. Just got to roll with the punches!

The end-of-year MADNESS is here!

 Wynter is icumen in,

Lhude sing, 'Buger!'

Yep, it's that time of year again. The weather in England has turned shitty: savagely cold, relentlessly wet. And the fixture schedule - squeezed on one side by an expanded programme of European competition, World Cup qualifiers, and the minor domestic annoyance of the early League Cup ties, and on the other by the magnanimous but probably misguided desire to shoehorn a 'mini-break' of sorts into the League programme in early January - is entering the inevitable December logjam. 

Most of the other major European football leagues enjoy a full 3 or 4 weeks off from just before Christmas - when the weather is at its worst, and players want to be able to spend a little time off with their families. In England, we only ge a scant 9 days in January, and only by virtue of playing twice in a week straight after the New Year. [And in fact, we're not even getting that little 'break' this year: the gap in the League schedule in early January is filled by the 3rd Round of the FA Cup!] Starting this weekend, there are 9 Premer League gameweeks in just under 6 calendar weeks.

The rate of injuries, unfortunately, will inevitably soar. Performance levels will plummet. 'Rest rotations' will abound. Most teams experience a bit of a wobble in their results; some regularly seem to crash during this period (ahem, Arsenal - let's hope they're over that now!).

Now, more than ever, you will need your bench. All through December (and possibly on through much of January and February too if we have a really bad winter) you'll be very, very lucky if you don't need at least 1 auto-sub - sometimes, perhaps, 2 or 3 - to replace last-minute omissions in almost every gameweek. And even if all your regular starters are going to play, there will probably be occasions when you wish they weren't, because you can tell they're getting knackered and are not likely to have a good game next time out; you want to have the flexibility to be able to rotate players in and out of your starting lineup. 

If you don't have a full bench now, and a strong bench, you're likely to suffer through a brutal winter.

Feeling THANKFUL?

I've long had a peculiar fondness for the American holiday of Thanksgiving - largely because I've so often been able to celebrate the occasion with American and/or Americophile friends, and a few times even in America.

This year, alas, I shall probably be making do with a turkey sandwich on my own. And maybe I'll make myself a pumpkin cheesecake for a sweet treat tonight...

Anyhow, a Happy Thanksgiving to any American readers who may stumble upon this obscure corner of the Internet (probably looking for content about the Fantasy version of their own gridiron game - the one that rather conspicuously involves very little playing of the ball with the foot....).

[And apologies to any Canadian readers who feel overlooked. But you're probably used to it! I am well aware that your version of this holiday falls much earlier, on the 2nd Monday in October, as I lived in Toronto for a year-and-a-half in my youth. However, that holiday never embedded itself in my psyche, even when I was a resident in the country. You Canucks are not so, um, culturally assertive as your American cousins, I suppose.]

For some reason, Linus's pitiful obsession with The Great Pumpkin - an autumn-themed deity of his own invention - was always one of the things that most resonated with me in the classic 'Peanuts' cartoons. This superstition of his was actually associated with Halloween, but it is Thanksgiving, with its own emphasis on pumpkins, that always recalls it to my mind. 

Linus, of course, was convinced that The Great Pumpkin would appear only to him, if he created a pumpkin-patch that was worthy of the demi-god's attendance; and he'd wait patiently every year, full of expectation - but it never happened.  In much the same way, we FPL managers convince ourselves that, if we only take enough care over our selections, one day The Great Gameweek or The Great Chip Play will manifest itself only for us.  Like I said, pitiful.

Again with the metaphors, Mr Wade?

To pod, or not to pod....?

I have a little bit of a 'following' (dread word!) on some of the FPL forums where I comment most frequently, a small coterie of discerning readers who actually appreciate and enjoy my observerations (on football and on life, as much as FPL). And a few of these have even exhorted me once or twice - perhaps only in jest?! - to launch a podcast,...  to provide a more 'readily digestible' version of some of the more useful content from this blog (where I know that, in pursuit of clarity and thoroughness, I usually end up being too long-winded for modern tastes). I have been considering it.

In fact, I had thought that last week would be an especially opportune moment to drop an initial episode: I should have had a bit more time to prepare material over the international break; and it was looking like a particularly intriguing gameweek, with a wide open field of possibiliies for the captaincy (I had quipped online that there were probably "at least 20 more promising options than Haaland this week"; and indeed, 17 players did better than the 8 or 9 points which I think would have been the Viking's best reasonable expectation for the gameweek, and another 20-odd did about the same; but since he actually blanked, 99 players outscored him!!); and there are many intriguing problems approaching (the midwinter fixture logjam, the extra transfers being doled out for AFCON, many managers still having all or most of this year's extra chips to get rid of, and so on....). Gosh, yes - it was an unusually rich week for FPL discussion.

Ultimately, perhaps, there was rather too dauntingly much in the way of possible topics to choose from. And I didn't have much free time (friends visiting, job opportunities to chase, another big writing assignment to take care of....). Heck, I haven't even got very far with the first item on my Preparatory Checklist, which was shopping around to find a good, FREE online hosting platform. Then I realised there's an awful lot of background noise in my house (I've learned to tune most of it out, after so long of living in Asia; but I'm right by an intermittently busy road, there's a house under construction just a stone's-throw away, and my neighbours' kids are often quite exuberant... It's A LOT.); so, I probably can't muddle by with the onboard microphone on my decrepit old laptop, I'd have to shell out for a semi-decent mike & headphones set.

So, I think, if this ever happens, it won't be until after the holidays - sometime in January, at the very earliest. And quite possibly never.

And I'm really not sure I want to do it anyway. I am an intensely private person, and I don't like to reveal anything much of my true self online (the name I use here is only an alias; the many names that I use online are all aliases, always). I certainly wouldn't ever want anyone to know what I look like; and knowing what my voice sounds like is only a very small step away from that - to me, it feels similarly invasive, similarly compromising. And I am avowedly anti-narcissistic: I have absolutely no expectation that anyone should enjoy the sound of my voice, nor any desire for people to pay attention to me. (I do this blog and the forum comments primarily because I really enjoy writing [I've often made my living from it], not with any ambitions of becoming a large-scale 'influencer'.) 

I am intrigued by the challenge of trying to get to grips with a new medium of communication. But I confess that it is one about which I know next-to-nothing - which will doubtless be something of a handicap to my early endeavours!

Any advice, encouragement, or discouragement on this plan would be gratefully received! 

Free Hit opportunity?

 

I mentioned yesterday that there were some tempting opportunities to play the first Free Hit coming up over the final month-and-a-bit of this first half of the season (although you might want to 'keep your powder dry' and just hang on to it until GW19 in case of a game-postponement emergency caused by bad weather...).

The problem is that gameweeks that look promising for one bonus chip usually look good for the others too (in fact, I already covered why the sets of fixtures in some of the upcoming gameweeks are attractive for either a Bench Boost or Free Hit play).

But probably the most appealing option of the lot for a Free Hit would be the imminent Gameweek 13. There are a number of teams we wouldn't normally fancy who are this week playing what look like much weaker sides: Villa playing Wolves, Brentford playing Burnley, City playing Leeds, Liverpool playing West Ham, and Spurs playing Fulham (although the last two are perhaps rather questionable, given Liverpool's and Spurs's recent form!). Moreover, you might want to avoid having players from the top-of-the-table clash between Chelsea and Arsenal, which might end up being close and cagey, and is certainly quite hard to call. Crystal Palace v Manchester United, Everton v Newcastle, Nottingham Forest v Brighton, and Sunderland v Bournemouth are also quite tough to predict the outcomes of, and so perhaps better avoided if you have the chance to do so. That's what a prime Free Hit set of fixtures typically looks like.

Unfortunately,.... Erling Haaland against Leeds has to be the most attractive prospect in the first-half of the season for playing the Triple Captain chip. And so, that is likely to take priority this week for the majority of FPL managers. 

Nobody but Haaland is scoring points almost every week, and often producing big points - so, there really is no other sensible option for this chip. (Eze isn't likely to repeat this Sunday's performance again this season, if only because no other opponent is likely to play as badly against Arsenal as Spurs did here!) And the only alternative remaining time to play the chip on Haaland is Gameweek 17, when he's turning out against against West Ham at The Etihad. West Ham, though, are starting to show signs of improvement under Nuno, and are now probably a rather stronger opponent than Leeds (they weren't just a few weeks ago, but things change). Also, that's rather a long time to wait: the lanky Viking might have picked up an injury or lost form by then!

So,... if you still have all three of the bonus chips in hand, it looks like Gameweek 13 is the best bet for the Triple Captain; and you may then be left flipping a coin to decide how to split the Free Hit and Bench Boost between Gameweeks 15 and 17 - or maybe GW16 for the BB, when the fixtures are perhaps not quite so attractive, but you will have the advantage of an 'optimum set-up' thanks to the '5 Free Transfers' early Christmas present we're getting for the start of AFCON. [In fact, given that GW15 is the third set of league fixtures inside a week, there's a high risk you might be hit by a slew of injuries, or likely rest rotations, or players whose form is impaired by fatigue. If you know about those problems in advance, and they are numerous, you might be able to dodge around them with the Free Hit. But such issues might ambush you only after the gameweek deadline, which probably makes it rather too risky a week to play the Bench Boost in: the absolute essential for a good return from that chip is 15 fit players all starting for you. So, for me, it's looking like GW16 or 17 would be optimal for the BB;... and Free Hit any time you feel like it,... or feel that you need it!] 

BEST OF LUCK!!!

Always risky to play a chip after a break

 

Well, certainly one of the 'bonus' chips (and as I said yesterday, the Free Hit should really be regarded as one of these too). Though, in fact, even a Wildcard play is a bit of a shakey proposition directly after an international break, as you really want your new selections to return good points for you straight away.... and in these gameweeks, there is too much uncertainty about that.

WHY?  Because the disruption of the usual club routines for the better part of two weeks tends to have a negative impact on team and individual form, and makes game outcomes more unpredictable.

Certainty, of course, is impossible in a game like FPL; but if you're going to risk one of your valuable bonus chips, or implement a major rebuild with the Wildcard, you want to have a high degree of confidence that all of your players are likely to have good games. And you just can't have that level of confidence about likely performances in the gameweek straight after a break, just as you can't in the early weeks of the season, after the summer lay-off.

Even if players aren't physically fatigued by long-distance flights and heavy game-minutes, and haven't picked up some injury niggle that hasn't yet been publicly announced, they can often be emotionally depleted by a particularly high-stakes game (especially in this most recent break, where World Cup qualification was on the line for many teams). But more importantly, their usual routines have been broken: they've been playing with different teammates, working with different coaches, implementing different game tactics and set-piece routines to what they're used to with their clubs. And when they return, they have limited time to get back in the swing of things, with only a day or two of training before their next league match; detailed tactical preparation, in particular, can be very difficult on such a tight schedule. And even the players who stayed at their clubs, while they should be feeling fresh and well-rested, will also have missed out on full training with their regular teammates for 10 days or so.

This is why we get so many wild fluctuations in form, so many 'unexpected' results straight after a break - and thus, why it's such a big, and probably unwise, gamble to play one of your FPL chips in such a gameweek.

[I'm here trying to kick off a new series, where I aim to sum up a key idea about FPL rather more pithily than usual (though I don't have the knack of brevity, I know!), with the main point being stated in the post title. I realise at least some of the entries in my other attempt at a more concise series of posts, 'In a nutshell', may also qualify for this new category. I may have to ponder on whether there's any value in having two labels.]

How to use the Free Hit (and what it could be worth!)

 

The Free Hit is a 'novelty' that has stuck with us, first introduced into FPL in the 2017-18 season and a regular feature since. It is a 'disposable' rebuild chip, allowing you unlimited transfers in the gameweek you play it in, but with your squad automatically reverting back to its pre-Free Hit state for the following gameweek: you are 'rebuilding' for one gameweek only. (Also, note that the 'unlimited changes' are still subject to the usual constraints of overall budget and club quota. In Fantasy games for the international tournaments, there is sometimes a 'Limtless' chip that gives you a completely free rein to construct your 'perfect' squad; the Free Hit is not that. Alhough you might choose to take the risk of having a very weak bench for one week, and thus rustle up just a little bit more money than usual to spend on the starting eleven when using the chip.)

There are two main ways in which this chip can be used in FPL:

1)  As a 'rebuild' chip - in emergencies, to get around the challenge of a Blank Gameweek.

If a few teams you have high representation from are missing a match in the coming gameweek, that can leave a gaping hole in your squad. Sometimes, even a single missing match can have a big impact: last year, when the first Merseyside derby was called off at short notice because of the threat of extreme weather, many FPL managers found themselves without 4, 5, 6 Liverpool and Everton players! In circumstances like this, you might want to use the Free Hit in order to put out a strong team - where otherwise you might be having to spend 'hits' on extra transfers and/or to field a short team. And, of course, there's always a possibility - particularly in the grim midwinter months - of suddenly finding yourself with a raft of short-term injury doubts (and/or suspensions), and needing to use the Free Hit to get around that transient catastrophe.

2)  As a 'bonus' chip - to try to take advantage of an unusual set of fixtures.

If a lot of clubs that you don't usually want many - or any - players from all have 'easy'-looking fixtures in the coming gameweek, and/or many of your existing top players face unusually tough fixtures and/or are drawn against each other*, you might fancy completely revising your squad for that one week to take maximum advantage of the untypical points opportunities from this set of match-ups. 

In the past, when we only had ONE of this chip, it was always sensible to hang on to it until the latter part of the season, when we knew that we would face 2 or 3 Blank Gameweeks (at least one of them a pretty big one) because of league games being postponed to accommodate ties in the later rounds of the domestic cup competitions. 

Now that we have TWO Free Hits to use, one in each half of the season, there is more freedom in how to make use of the first one. 

As I pointed out a couple of weeks ago, opportunities for a 'bonus' use of the Free Hit largely overlap with the tempting Bench Boost gameweeks: sets of fixtures where there a lot of unbalanced match-ups, promising big wins and/or clean sheets, give you the best chance of getting good points from all 15 players in your squad. But it is rare to have a gameweek of fixtures where even your starting 11 are all facing such good fixtures, so using a Free Hit to fully optimize your line-up for such an inviting gameweek is also potentially very beneficial. In any unusually 'good' set of gameweek fixtures, Free Hit and Bench Boost are often interchangeably appealing options.

There is, however, still a strong case for hanging on to it, in case of possible emergencies. The winter weather in the UK seems to get fouler year by year. Last season, we saw one game get called off becaue of high winds; and several others came very close to postponement because of thick fogs or heavy snowfalls. Even though pitches are much better protected against extreme weather these days, we have seen instances where dozens of volunteers were scrambling to clear a pitch of snow only hours before a scheduled kick-off. And there is also a possibility, particularly with extremely cold, icy conditions, that simply getting to the ground - or even going out of doors, at least for more elderly people - might be thought so hazardous that a game will be called off (that seemed to be the issue with the threatened gale-force winds around Anfield last year: not the playability of the game, but general concerns about public safety). There is a very serious danger of unexpected Blank Gameweeks occurring during the coming month or two, because of extreme weather. 

And there are, of course, other types of event that might disrupt the league schedule: public transport strikes, terrorist threats, the death of the monarch. You need to feel that the possible benefits of playing the Free Hit for pure 'bonus' value are looking very strong before you sacrifice that safety net.

So, what can the Free Hit be worth? 

After the event, you can identify a fairly specific points-lift value that it gave you, though it is a bit laborious to calculate: you have to compare your Free Hit team's haul with what your regular team would have produced (bearing in mind that, without the Free Hit, you might have had to spend points on transfers in order to put out a full team, or a nearer-to-full team). 

Bear in mind, though, that this might not always capture the full 'value' of the Free Hit, since the ability to use it may have ongoing benefits beyond that particular gameweek, if you're using it as an emergency one-match rebuild. If you'd opted to get by without the chip, you might have used up transfers you didn't really want to - transfers that might have been more valuable to you later for other changes. And you might have brought in some players who didn't have much value beyond that particular gameweek when you were caught short, and thus you might have committed yourself to using further transfers to get rid of them again as soon as possible; and if you had to carry them in the team for a bit longer than you wanted to, they might have been non-optimal points-returners for you. This kind of thing also has an effective points cost which may add to the apparent points-lift you got from the chip in the gameweek in which you played it. 

I find that the Free Hit typically yields a lift of about 15-20 points (though it can be a lot more, if a Blank Gameweek has wiped out most of your starting eleven!!) - which actually makes it the most valuable of all the FPL chips.

However, since we almost never have an 'ideal' team that's fully optimized for the current set of fixtures, the Free Hit can potentially bring a substantial points-lift in almost any gameweek; the additional benefit of playing it in a gameweek with a particularly freakish set of fixtures might be little or nothing. Therefore, there's probably no harm in hanging on to the chip 'for safety's sake' until the last possible moment. At the end of the season, it can make a great 'smart bomb' to help you win one of your mini-league cups!!  But even for this first-half-of-the-season one, you could just have a bit of fun with it in Gameweek 19....

Having said that.... there are in fact some pretty tempting openings to use it as a tactical 'bonus' opportunity in the next month. I shall have a little more to say about that soon.

[* NB: Having players in your FPL team drawn against each other sometimes is unavoidable; and it's not neccesarily a terrible thing. Attacking players may still be able to pick up attacking contributions even in a game they lose. And two good defensive teams may play out a goalless draw - or at least both avoid conceding too many, and perhaps still have their defenders and keepers pick up some additional points for saves, 'defensive contributions', and bonus points. It's only where you have attackers drawn against defenders in a fixture that there's a problem, because that's a zero-sum situation: an attacker and a defender playing against each other can't both have a good game, they're taking FPL points off each other.]

[Apologies to any early visitors to this post who spotted a sentence or two of absolute nonsense in the middle of this piece. I have been sleeping badly this week, and sometimes get a little brainfogged! Hence, I had somehow interpolated a couple of observations about Wildcard rather than Free Hit use...  Now EDITED out. Sorry about that.]

And the Lord taketh away...

For the last several years, my beer of choice among the local brews in my part of the world has been this tasty IPA-style offering from the Lao Brewery. (At least, when I'm in the Lao P.D.R. Although this beer can occasionaly be found in the neighbouring countries, it's still only manufactured in relatively small quantities, and doesn't seem to have any established export trade, even within the region.)

One of my biggest frustrations as a fan of Lao IPA has been the fact that it is only available in bottles, which militates against it as an option for home consumption (glass is heavy to carry, a hassle to dispose of 'responsibly', and carries that constant threat of breakage).

But look at this! A few weeks ago, I found some Lao IPA at my local supermarket in cans. Oh, frabjous day!!!

Alas, they appear to have had only ONE CASE of them; and when I'd bought all of those, they didn't replenish their fridge again. The appearance of the long-awaited Lao IPA cans in my life was naught but a taunting phantom, a tantalising glimpose of happiness witheld.  [I could craft an FPL metaphor out of this incident if I wanted to; but, for once, I shall restrain myself.]

Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 12

This is looking like a classic case of a post-break 'hangover' weekend: the stresses of big international games, the time players have spent away from their usual club environment, the limited amount of preparation time (and the utterly foul winter weather that's settting in back home!) have made for a lot of rather disjointed performances and unexpected results - Bournemouth nearly losing to West Ham, Brighton nearly losing to Brentford, Chelsea labouring to grind out at a win at Burnley, and Liverpool getting spanked by Forest! (I wouldn't count City's loss at Newcastle as all that 'unexpected'....)

Burnley started brightly and were well on top for the first half-hour or so, but couldn't fashion any real chances - although they might have profited from a couple of typically wayward Robert Sanchez moments early on: first, the big keeper gave the ball away just outside the penalty area by carelessly firing a rushed kick upfield straight into the back of Enzo Fernandez, and then he failed to make clear who was taking a goal-kick (it really looked as if Sanchez had restarted play from the middle of the six-yard box, but then Tosin decided he wanted to take the kick himself on the edge of the box and put his hands on the ball to 're-spot' it; they were very, very lucky not to concede a penalty for that!).  Chelsea came gradually more into the game through the second half, but were making heavy weather of what most had expected to be a fairly easy assignment for them. And there was a major question-mark over their breakthrough goal: the ball had clearly hit Cucurella's lower-arm in build-up, and for the goalscorer that would have been a strict liability offence; Cucurella was probably excused because the ball was fired at him from such close range by a Burnley defender, but that led to him controlling the ball and had a material effect on the rest of the move. Damn, the Handball Law has got so damned complex now that I really don't know whether that one should have stood or not; my gut feeling is that it should not have.

The big FPL surprises/disgruntlements here were that Reece James was withdrawn at half-time (he was all smiles on the bench in the second-half, so presumably it was a pre-planned 'managing of minutes' ahead of the Barcelona game on Tuesday; but still, it's a worrying sign of possible continued doubts about his stamina or susceptibility to injury, and is apt to undercut his value in FPL), that Garnacho was omitted from the squad altogether (I jinxed him by recommending him as a possible transfer target a few days ago!!), and that Liam Delap was shockingly poor on his long-awaited return to Premier League action (Guiu was so much better when he replaced him for the last 20 minutes or so that he should surely be preferred for the start next time?).

Bournemouth got caught with their pants down early on as West Ham started strongly and Callum Wilson rediscovered his long-lost scoring boots. But they looked a completely different team in the second-half, playing with much more energy and conviction - and they completely laid siege to the West Ham goal for the last 20 minutes or so. (Curiously, Alphonse Areola was credited by FPL with 10 saves in the match,.... but the BBC highlights only showed 4??!! My confidence in how Opta counts any of its stats declines week by week....)  Max Kilman was very, very fortunate not to be sent off for handling the ball on the ground to concede the penalty for Bournemouth's first comeback goal; presumably it was adjudged to be 'accidental' - but it looked pretty deliberate, or at least easily avoidable; and, since the action completely took control of the ball and diverted it away from the attacker, it was an obvious 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity'. That was another unfathomably bad decision which almost certainly decided the outcome of a game.  The big news for FPL in this one was the forced absence of Antoine Semenyo, who apparently is going to be unable to play for a while because of the ankle ligament problem he picked up while away with Ghana last week.

Who the hell is Olivier Boscagli??? I'd never heard of him before, but he started for Brighton in place of the usually ever-present Lewis Dunk, who'd apparently been suffering with a minor knock (but was fine to come on for the second-half). Brighton's first-half showing was very lacklustre, although they were perhaps a bit unfortunate to go into the break trailing to a Thiago penalty: Baleba's rash sliding challenge was mistimed, but he seemed to get nowhere near either the ball or the man, at least as far as I could see on the TV replays; Ouattara simply sensed his proximity and took a fresh-air dive. This was yet another instance where the on-pitch decision was at least dubious enough to warrant a second look on the monitor, but VAR seems now to have swung heavily in the direction of complete passivity. Brighton played with much more pace and vigour in the second-half, but were still struggling to make much impression on a compact Brentford defence - until a brilliant finish from Welbeck got them back on terms, and then a slightly misshit effort from substitute Hinshelwood just outside the box clawed them in front. (Hinshelwood really deserved additional points for a 'pre-assist' on that: his superb diagonal ball to set Minteh free down the right had started the move.) Even then, they nearly let the points slip away again, giving up a second penalty late in added-on time (and rightly so, this time) - only for the otherwise excellent Thiago to join the rash of players to recently flub a spot-kick! That will have been a bitter blow to the 14% or so of FPL managers who own him, but I think their selection is sound: he particularly impressed me here with the coolness of the manner in which he despatched an early one-on-one chance past the keeper (even though it was rightly ruled out for his having been narrowly offside as he ran through), in stark contrast to Mateta rather predictably missing an almost exactly similar chance in his game against Wolves. For me, Thiago has consistently been showing the best form of any striker (other than Haaland) almost all season - and I hope this mishap with the penalty miss won't suddenly break his confidence. (Also,... I can't help wondering if Brentford's away form is impaired by the awful monkeyshit-brown change strip they're lumbered with this season...)

Fulham look much better when they get on the front foot and take the game to an opponent - something they conspicuously only manage on their home turf. Sunderland were uninspired here, rarely creating any danger - except with La Fee's near-miss in the opening seconds of the second-half, when he was played in by a long ball from his keeper. I wonder if their effectiveness is hampered by the fact that their pivot pair, Xhaka and Sadiki, are both now only one card away from a suspension. Fulham had to be patient to claim all the points, though; Robin Roefs kept them at bay for a long time with another very capable performance between the sticks (4 saves in the game - officially; to most observers it looked like it should have been counted as slightly more), until Raul nicked the late winner. Fulham had actually managed half a dozen or so decent efforts during the game, and their xG was slightly better than 2.0; so, the win seemed hard-earned.

Liverpool started brightly enough in the first half, but failed to achieve much penetration, with Isak again completely anonymous (and Slot's decision to start him over Ekitike frankly baffling!). In the second half, Forest's superior organisation and workrate increasingly began to make itself felt. The mildly controversial first goal was clearly a major psychological turning-point: Ndoye was offside on the edge of the six-yard box as Murillo's crisp volley flew in, he was very near to the keeper, and he was very close to the flight of the ball (actually flinched, and twisted his legs away from it at the last moment, or it might have got a glancing deflection off him) - so, he could reasonably be said to be 'interfering with play'. We don't like to see goals disallowed for such technical infractions; but if we follow the rules strictly and consistently, they ought to be. And it must have smarted particularly for Liverpool, as a Van Dijk goal was ruled out for them in extremely similar circumstances a couple of weeks ago. One wonders if public outcry about that and other similar incidents has swayed officials towards greatter leniency on this kind of offside decision: neither VAR official Jamie Bell nor the on-pitch referee Andy Madley seemed to give this incident much thought. Shortly afterwards, the scales of injustice were perhaps slightly balanced up when a second goal from Igor Jesus was quickly ruled out for a supposed 'handball' - although the ball had pretty clearly struck him between the chest and the upper arm, which is now 'legal'. With both this call and the earlier offside, Bell seemed to be not so much rendering a decision as simply declining to go against Madley; that's not how VAR is supposed to work. The nearly 50,000 FPL managers who thought that Virgil Van Dijk might be a good replacement for Gabriel this week.... are crying hard! This defeat seems to put Liverpool's title hopes to bed - and it perhaps won't be long before talk begins about whether Slot might need to be replaced.

No sign of a 'new manager bounce' yet for doomed Wolves: they were marginally less porous in defence, but couldn't create any real threat at the other end. But Palace were somewhat below their best too. Mateta and Sarr confirmed my view of them as two of the most overrated 'assets' in FPL: Mateta shooting wide of the post when put through one-on-one with the keeper, and Sarr blazing over the top from the best chance of the game. If I were going to have a punt on any of Palace's attacking players, it would be the consistently impressive Pino or Wharton. Guehi, who'd picked up an early yellow card, was very lucky to escape a second one and a sending-off when he kicked Strand Larsen's foot as they both challenged for a high ball; it was a minor contact, arguably accidental, certainly not violent or reckless - but it was a foul, and was eligible for a second yellow card. And Daniel Munoz joins the growing ranks of players who've had an all-action game.... but are mysteriously deemed to have come up a single 'contribution' shy of earning the extra 'defensive points'. We see one or two players get abused by the new points system like this every week, and it is really starting to bug the crap out of me!

The most mystifying VAR cock-up of the weekend came in Saturday's late game at Newcastle when Schar missed his attempted tackle and crunched Foden's ankle - the most clearcut penalty we'll see all season (and, indeed, arguably a red-card offence), but once again VAR was apparently too shy to call the referee out on a poor initial decision (the game was still scoreless at this point, so this might well have decided the result). Donnarumma had made a smart one-handed save early on to keep out a firm, low hearder from Woltemade, and Barnes and Foden spurned sitters at each end just before half-time - but a lively and open game was somehow failing to produce many clearcut chances. It didn't truly come alive until a bizarre flurry of 3 goals within 6 or 7 minutes in the middle of the second half. For the decisive second Barnes goal, Pep seems peeved that Donnarumma might have been 'impeded' in the goalmouth - but he was at fault for getting himself stuck in traffic, and it was his own defender rather than the Newcastle player who was briefly hampering his movement. The stronger objection on that one would be that Guimaraes appeared to be well offside for his initial header against the bar - but the SAOT produced a graphic for us (the first one of those we've seen for a few weeks!!)... which seemed to be of a completely different moment to the one we should have been looking at. So, City can feel rightly aggrieved at this result; but the home side really earned it with a disciplined and hard-fought performance, and another great tactical gameplan from Eddie Howe. (With the return here of Livramento, Hall, and Schar, they looked to be back to something like their best again, after a very wobbly spell.)

Gawd, the Leeds v Villa game was a painful watch, both for the quality of the football, and for quality of my TV coverage (I lost my English commentary early on, and then the picture kept going on the fritz; it was almost a mercy when I lost the channel altogether for a while around half-time...). I really find nothing to get excited about from either of these teams at the moment: Villa have too many good players to go down, but really haven't been playing all that well for the most part (Watkins is still struggling to get on the ball at all), despite their recent string of good results; Leeds really don't have any very good players, and are not playing at all well: they look, to me, look obvious relegation favourites (Wolves, at least, have the talent in their squad to be able to turn their results around somewhat; I don't think Leeds do). But, at the moment, Villa aren't making much of a case that they deserve to survive in the league either. Both sides started out with very low energy, as if they were too worried about 'making a mistake' to actually go in search of a positive result. Emery was so disgusted with his team's performance that he made a major shake-up at half-time, withdrawing Digne and Buendia (slightly surprising choices, perhaps; although Malen - their only consistently dangerous-looking player in recent weeks - surely should have been on from the start). Leeds had nicked a scrappy lead early on when Nmecha somehow managed to bundle the ball over the line from a free-kick. That led to an interminable VAR delay, as a number of Leeds players had been well offside when the kick was taken - but not the ultimate goalscorer; and it would seem that none of the others was 'interfering'. Emi Martinez collapsed clutching his head - for no obvious reason; this seemed to be an attempt to con the ref into thinking he might have been fouled, or to at least garner some sympathy from his own fans,... as he squirmed with embarrassment at his costly mistake: he'd completely misjudged the flight of the ball, and failed to assert himself over the attacking players (he'd got himself caught between two Leeds men; but neither of them did anything to impede or unbalance him, so there was no suggestion of any foul). In the second half, the home side briefly appeared to have drawn level at 2-2, but this time VAR was working efficiently in ruling the goal out; it might have been forgivable for the on-pitch officials to fail to notice that Calvert-Lewin had turned the ball into the goal with his hand - but it was very obvious from the behind-the-goal camera. Two very smart second-half finishes from Morgan Rogers - a clever near-post flick with the outside of his boot from Malen's low cross, and a free-kick neatly dinked over the wall (although Perri probably should have got to that one!) - were the only highlights of a thoroughly turgid encounter.

Hincapie rather than Mosquera got the nod to fill in for the sidelined Gabriel, and Calafiori, who had been a minor doubt before the game, was fit to start on the left as usual. Thomas Frank decided to switch to a back-three, as he so often did at Brentford when facing stronger opposition; Spurs fans were probably not too happy at this admission of inferiority - and it availed the team nothing anyway, as they were bulldozed by a rampant Arsenal. Only Richarlison's audacious chip over Raya from 35 yards out (inspired by Kenny McLean's goal against Denmark earlier in the week?!) gave the visitors a psychological lift and briefly allowed them to gain some momentum in the game. Eze's hattrick (and he might well have had 4 or 5; Vicario made a good stop from another long-range drive of his late in the game) took the FPL community rather by surprise; he's thus far been playing well without often looking likely to score himself; and Rice (for dependability, and plenty of assists) or Trossard (for currently hot goalscoring form) or Saka (always classy and dangerous, even though he hasn't yet got into a regular scoring groove again) really look the preferable alternatives from the Arsenal midfield. His first goal was again rather dubious, another instance of the inconsistent application of the 'interference' rule for offsides: Trossard (and two other Arsenal players; although they were probably just onside) was clearly in an offside position on the edge of the six-yard box, and directly on the line of the shot, blocking the keeper from getting an early view of it. We don't like to see goals ruled out for this sort of thing, but the rule is that they ought to be. We really need some clearer guidelines for the implementation of this rule, because at the moment it seems like a complete toss-up as to whether a goal may be ruled out.

Maheus Cunha was a late omission from the Manchester United lineup for the Monday night game at Old Trafford, having apparently picked up some sort of head injury in training: not a huge upset for FPL, as he's only owned by about 4.5% of managers (I'm surprised it's that many, given how little he's shown so far this season, and how poorly he compares to Mbeumo or Fernandes as a midfield prospect from that club at the moment); at least that provided a rare start for Joshua Zirkzee. The other big curveball of this encounter was Idrissa Gana Gueye getting himself sent off in the 12th minute for an altercation with one of his own teammates (he was so incensed with defender Michael Keane about something that he slapped him quite hard across the face - right in front of the referee: madness!). Fortunately for the visitors, they were able to grab a goal through Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall almost immediately afterwards, so were then able to sit back in a low-block for the rest of the game - a block which United could not find any way to break down, and mostly had to resort to shooting from distance. To be fair, they did manage a few decent atempts, and Pickford needed to be sharp between the sticks - making good saves from Fernandes and Mbeumo, and from a Zirkzee header; Fernandes and Mason Mount also saw powerful drives whistle just wide of a post.  Overall, though, United really were awful in this game [Adam Clery has put out a good video on why]. The great FPL mystery/injustice of the night was that James Tarkowski, despite keeping a clean sheet and yet again being the top returner of 'defensive contributions', somehow missed out on any bonus points: one can see how Dewsbury-Hall's decsive goal and Pickford's lively performance in goal might deserve the bigger bonuses, but how did Keane and Myekolenko edge out their captain for the final extra point?? Did Keane get extra credit for taking his slap like a man???  The BPS is broken!  Amorim appeared to have saved his job with a run of better results over the past month or so; but it's a sign of how precarious the recent optimism at the club has been, how tenuous is the fans' confidence in their manager, that one disppointing home result immediately puts his future in question again.

Kilman and Guehi (and possibly Schar?) not getting sent off, an obvious penalty not being given to City, but a very dubious one being awarded to Brentford, goals perhaps wrongly allowed for Murillo and Neto (and Eze), and certainly wrongly disallowed for Igor Jesus, and thoroughly incompetent performance of VAR and SAOT throughout - the officiating is definitely looking like it's going to get us to a very high 'Luck-o-Meter' score this week. And we've had a few unexpected omissions and early substitutions too; and that penalty miss by Thiago!

The FPL 'Team of the Week' is usually one of the strongest indicators of the fluctuating 'luck factor': and it is again - as in just about every week so far this season - a thoroughly bizarre collection: 5 defenders (3 of them from Forest!), Callum Wilson up front, and Munoz initially the only player in it with any significant ownership (although later joined by the modestly owned Eze and Trossard). The 'global average' score for the week, and the general spread of scores, the disparity beween the week's lowest and highest, are also signifiers of the 'luck' quoieint; and this week, we got yet another staggeringly low 'average' score of just 39 points - but it seems hat quite a large number of managers scored well above that, and the 'Manager of the Week'' racked up a massive 95 points more than that (though that was with the benefit of a Bench Boost; nevertheless, several people got scores of 120-130 even without a chip) - that is a very unusual circumstance. With some unexpected results, a number of poor refereeing decisions, and so many of the most fancied players failing to produce anything (while Eze's monster haul came rather out of the blue!), I think this week certainly gets up to an 8 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.

I feel sorry for Archie Gemmill

I have a soft spot for Scotland and the Scots. Edinburgh is my favourite city on Earth, and I dream of retiring there one day.

I've always rather liked their national football team too. In my early childhood, England had an unfortunate habit of failing to qualify for the World Cup, so Scotland were the only 'home country' to root for in the tournament. And by the time England did manage to qualify again, in '82, I'd got rather used to following the Scots, and was actually inclined to root for them harder than 'my own team'. It probably also helped that Scotttish football was going through a 'golden age' in the '70s and '80s (the number of 'foreign players' at English clubs was strictly capped, but that rule didn't apply to the 'home countries', so there was a ready conduit for the best Scottish talent to move quickly to top English sides), and so their leading players were all familiar and beloved stars in the English First Division.

Also, my best drinking buddy from college, and one of my principal antagonists in FPL, is a proud Scot, so I always share in his joy, as well as feeling some of my own, when the Scotland football team does well.

And crikey, did they do well at Hampden on Tuesday night - securing a thrilling victory against a technically superior Danish side, to qualify them for the World Cup Finals for the first time in 28 years!! It was one of the most ecstatic football moments I've witnessed in many years. And I was very, very happy for my old friend - and for all other Scottish fans around the world.

But... it has bothered me rather that in so much of the subsequent commentary on the occasion, and in particular on the three remarkable goals which clinched the victory, people have been dubbing this result, or one of the three spectacular goals... The Greatest Moment in Scottish Football History.

Er, NO. Not unless you're a Very Young Person. It was a very great 'moment', certainly; ONE of 'The Greatest of All Time'.

But not The Greatest. Sorry, that's ALWAYS going to be this.,,,  Stocky, diminutive, prematurely middle-aged-looking midfielder Archie Gemmill suddenly channels his inner Brazilian to improvise a swerving run from the edge of the box that leaves three Dutch defenders flat on their arses, and then hammers an exuberant finish into the roof of the net..... to put Scotland 3-1 up against The Netherlands at the World Cup (and they - the Dutch, that is - were the best team in that tournament, the best team in the world at that point; should, by rights, have won the Cup that year!).

That was the single most sublime moment in my football-watching life. And I don't think it will ever be topped.

Dear old Archie (still with us; now 78 years old) is not getting the respect and remembrance he deserves.

People have such short memories today!

[By the by, of the three wondergoals Scotland conjured last Tuesday, I like Kieran Tierney's the best. Overhead kicks and lobs from the half-way line are spectacular rarities, but they're essentially a bit hit-and-hope - they require a substantial element of luck. Tierney looked like he knew his shot was going in three or four paces out from hitting it!]

Dilemmas of the Week - Gameweek 12 (25/26)

Not too many new injury concerns arising from the international matches this time, so this ahould be a pretty brief rundown!

I'm trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 12 of the season?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Well, of course, the major news is Gabriel pulling a thigh muscle again in Brazil's friendly against Senegal at The Emirates last Saturday. Arteta acknowledged on Friday that it was quite a serious problem, apparently confirming initial speculations that the defender was likely to be out for at least a month, possibly more. That's probably a bit too long to carry him on the bench (particularly as we're so often wanting to start 4 defenders at the moment!). It also causes much uncertainty about how Arsenal's form will hold up without their lynchpin at the back. And the permutations for a possible reshuffle to adapt are numerous: Mosquera, who's looked excellent when deputising for Saliba a few times, would be the most obvious replacement; Hincapie is more naturally suited to the left side of the centrail pairing, but probably doesn't yet have enough experience in the team; Saliba has the experience and inteilligence to move over to the left, but Calafiori or Timber might be more natural fits - leaving room for White or Lewis-Skelly to come back into the picture. Calafiori skipped international duty with a niggling hip problem, and Timber suffered a gashed knee playing for Holland, but neither seem likely to be in doubt for this weekend. Thus, the three remaining members of Arsenal's regular defensive line-up should be still be safely nailed-on, but one of them might be playing a slightly different role; and the shake-up could affect the likely points returns for them, and all of their other teammates.

Matty Cash and Ezri Konsa missed on the internationals with minor muscle issues, but those don't sound serious enough to threaten their availability against Leeds.

Patrick Kluivert picked up a knock while playing for Holland, and Antoine Semenyo suffered an aggravation of an ankle ligament problem while with the Ghana squad; neither problem sounds too major, but might make them a doubtt for the West Ham game.

Maresca has just announced that Cole Palmer broke a toe in a domestic accident this week. Toes break easily and heal easily; unless it's a really gnarly instance, he should be fine again inside a few weeks; and we hadn't heard that he was ready to return after his troublesome groin strain anyway, so this may not really have affected his availability timeline that much. (It might even be a 'good thing' - forcing him to rest up a week or two longer, preventing him from trying to rush back before that groin issue is fully resolved.)

Florian Wirtz and Conor Bradley are apparently unable to play this weekend as a result of problems acquired during the internationals. But at least Alisson is potentially ready to return in goal.

Benjamin Sesko came off with a knee problem in the last game against Tottenham, and is said to be sidelined for around a month. Harry Maguire also had to come off in that game with a hamstring strain: not too bad, but might be a doubt this weekend. And Kobbie Mainoo had been withdrawn from the squad just ahead of that one with a training knock, and is still doubtful - although he hasn't been getting any minutes from Amorim, anyway.

Randal Kolo Muani had to come off early in the Manchester United game last time after taking a blow to the face; apparently he's suffered an injury to his jaw which could keep him out for 6-8 weeks.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Dan Burn is serving a one-match ban for having earned two yellow cards in the last game against Brentford.

Lucas Paqueta and Sasa Lukic are suspended for one game after reaching 5 yellow cards, and a few others are now dangerously close to joining them on a 'totting up' suspension.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

I said yesterday that I was really impressed by the recent form of Diego Gomez, Alejandro Garnacho, and Leandro Trossard - although for each of them there are some doubts about their fixtures and how regularly they will start. I nearly added Villa's Emi Buendia to that list, but the doubts about him are even graver, as he's only just graduated to a regular start after more than a year in the wilderness, and there seems to be a continuing question-mark about his stamina/resilience as Emery is still giving him rationed minutes.

Jeremy Doku, Nico O'Reilly, and - to a slightly lesser extent - Rayan Cherki have all impressed recently for City too; but Pep Roulette always gives us pause there. Doku played a few blinders last season as well, and then was promptly dropped because His Pepness felt that he was still unable to implement some of the more abstruse details of his tactical instructions; there's inevitably a lingering fear that this might happen again, however well he's been playing.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

Picks of the Week (6)

DISCLAIMER: I always refuse to identify myself as any sort of FPL 'guru' or 'mentor' or 'expert'. And I have previously on this blog expressed my reluctance to share many details of my own selections, or to make very specific player recommendations.

However, in addition to occasionally critiquing common 'sheep picks' of the moment (not all necessarily outright bad, but ridiculously over-popular selections), I will occasionally try to highlight one or two players who seem not yet to be very widely owned but are starting to look very tempting prospects.

I will generally try to come up with at least 2 options per week - so that it doesn't look like I'm making a sole recommendation. And these suggestions are intended to be simply 'worth thinking about', not at all 'must-haves'. (And some weeks, most weeks, I'll have nothing.....)

Well, I haven't done one of these roundups yet this season, so I suppose I'm overdue....  Here goes.

The guy I've got most excited about over the past month is Brighton's new attacking midfielder from Paraguay, Diego Gomez. He really looks a complete package, and is brimming with confidence: that brace of goals against Leeds didn't look like a one-off to me. Brighton's team form has appeared to be on a strong upward trend in recent weeks, and  - apart from away trips to Liverpool and Arsenal! - they have a fairly inviting run of fixtures over the next month-and-a-half. And he's a steal at 4.9 million! If you're looking for a change in midfield - tiring, perhaps, of Grealish or Reijnders or Enzo Fernandez or Kudus or Semenyo - he's a tempting possibility; and completely 'under the radar' at the moment, with a puny 25,000 owners. However, we have to acknowledge that this would be a particularly speculative and risky pick: Gomez has only just graduated to a regular start, and Brighton have such a deep squad that rotation is always a danger; he might be competing with Mitoma or Gruda for the place before long. But I have an inkling this might be a gamble worth taking. He's just playing so damn well the moment that he might even be able to keep the start over Mitoma; but I think he could equally play off the right side (displacing Minteh), not as an outright winger perhaps, but nominally starting out wide, and drifting in to fill in a playmaker role in the right-half space, like Cole Palmer or Martin Odegaard. Indeed, I have a hunch his best position might actually be as a central 'No. 10'; it would be hard for him to achieve precedence over the excellent Georginho Rutter in that slot - but it is surely inevitable that Welbeck will pick up an injury sooner or later, and if that happens, I think it is likely that Rutter will switch to operating as their '9' or 'false 9', vacating the 'No. 10' space for Gomez. But of course, none of those optimistic eventualities may come to pass, and he might just be relegated to the bench again as soon as Mitoma's fully fit.

Alejandro Garnacho has also started to look on fire in his last couple of outings for Chelsea. At just 6.4 million, and with an ownership of less than 70,000, he too seems to be an underappreciated asset. The reservations on this pick would be that his frequent defensive weaknesses (I prefer to think of them as being down to 'inattentiveness' rather than 'laziness', but he can be a bit of a liability out of possession sometimes, especially in the defensive third) probably make him more likely to get limited minutes even when he's starting; he'l almost always be taken off for the last 20 minutes or so, whenever Chelsea have a lead to protect. And a regular start might be in doubt - as Palmer will probably start nominally wide on the right when he's available again (soon, we hope!) and Neto will probably then be regarded as the strongest option for a regular spot on the left. Also, Chelsea have a bit of an up-and-down fixture schedule: a few inviting opponents, but a home game soon against Arsenal, and then away trips to Bournemouth, Newcastle, and Manchester City over the following month. Nevertheless, I feel strongly tempted by Garnacho at the moment; I think I would resist the temptaion; and I fear I might regret resisting it - as he'll probably come up with one or two really big hauls in the next few weeks!

And finally, it might be worth giving Leandro Trossard a thoughtt as well (if you don't have him already: only 85,000 do - but that number is substantially up from two weeks ago); he's looked Arsenal's most dangerous player in recent weeks, with 2 goals and an assist in his last 4 starts. The doubt about him is that once Odegaard's available again (although there's still no definite timeline for his return), Eze is likely to switch back to the left flank, returning Trossard to the bench (although he might also start as a central striker if Gyokeres is going to be out a bit longer). Arsenal might face a bit of a challenge with London derbies against Spurs and Chelsea in their next two matches; but after that, they have a pretty soft run through the rest of December. Trossard would therefore be a very appealing pick - if only we could be confident that he would retain a regular start. (Unfortunately, that is becoming more and more of a doubt for a majority of players at the top clubs. It is a major pain for FPL selection!)

A little bit of Zen (69)

"You should be self-confident enough to abandon your 'certainty' - and to explore and to allow contradictions."

Christoph Waltz

A couple of weeks ago, the great Austrian actor was the featured guest in Mythical Kitchen's 'Last Meal' series, chatting thoughtfully with erudite host, Josh Scherer, about a range of topics, while enjoying some of his favourite dishes and wines. It's a curious coincidence that I should stumble on this pithy warning against the vice of excessive 'certainty' so soon after coming across Derek Muller's video on the same topic, 

This is one of the best things I've seen on Youtube all year: Waltz is a wise and funny man, full of intriguing insights. He's nearly 70 now, but still exudes a boyish enthusiasm about everything, am effervescent joie de vivre. The line above comes at timestamp 29.17. There is a bit earlier in the conversattion, around about 13.35, where he touches on another idea that I often like to highlight on this blog - the importance of prioritizing process over result.

I highly recommend watching the whole thing. Waltz is a treasure; Scherer too.