The (likely) story of my season so far

Of course, my season was cut short this year in Gameweek 2, when I was bizarrely locked out of my account by FPL's perpetually useless website - and I was so dismayed and flabbergasted that I couldn't be bothered to set up another new one (this is the third or fourth time this has happened to me in the last half-dozen years).

However, as we're now nearing the third-of-the-way-through-the-season mark, I thought I'd indulge in a bit of playing along in imagination, and review how I think my season probably would be panning out so far.

I went for Sels and Petrovic as a promising rotation pair of keepers at the start of the season. Sels disappointed amid Forest's dip in form around Nuno's departure and replacement with Ange Postecoglou: clean sheets disappeared, and somehow he wasn't even registering that many saves. Fortunately, the Bournemouth defence was holding up much better than many had feared, and Petrovic would soon have displaced him as 'first choice', though he's possiby not quite strong enough to be my regular starter; I think I would have swapped Sels out for Henderson as soon as I could. (Though, by GW4 or 5, Sunderland's Robin Roefs was starting to look a very appealing option.)  Henderson and Petrovic actually enjoyed a pretty good rotaion around their tougher fixtures for a while.

I usually counsel against taking 'too many chances' in the initial squad - and then I don't take my own advice. And Milos Kerkez counted as a bit risky, because he was a new arrival at Anfield and would almost certainly take some time to properly bed in. And he was not free of some risk of rotation with the veteran incumbent in his position, Andy Robertson; although his start, mercifully, proved to be reliable, he was yanked off very early in a few games. And with Liverpool not keeping any clean sheets, despite their winning start to the season, I think I would have soon ditched him - probably for an Everton or Bournemouth defender. Ben White was also perhaps somewhat risky after he'd missed so much of last season with injury, and Timber, Calafiori, and Lewis-Skelly had all impressed in his absence. But I did trust that he'd established first dibs on the right-back slot - and so perhaps it might have been, had he not immediately picked up an injury again. Rank bad luck there! But I would have moved for Calafiori and Senesi as replacements pretty promptly - probably even at the cost of a hit.

I would be well contentt, though, with my other two main picks, Munoz and Van de Ven, at least at first; and with Burnley's attacking left-back Quilindschy Hartman as my cheap bench-filler for the start of the season (though after a month or so it had begun to look as if Sunderland rather than Burnley were the most formidable of the promoted sides and their options might provide more consisttent 'defensive contributions', and even a good number of clean sheets throughout the season). However, I fear I would have lost patience with Van de Ven and his faltering Spurs - before he came up with that improbable brace of goals against Everton for a 23-point haul in Gameweek 9! Van de Ven, I think, would have been sacrificed for early 'defensive points' monster Tarkowski in GW6 or 7.

I also fret that I would have been likely to stick with Calafiori and/or Timber from the Arsenal defence -on the not unreasonable basis that, once established as nailed starters (which hadn't seemed certain, or even likely at the start of the season), they would be slightly more likely than Gabriel to produce the occasional attacking contribution. However, Gabriel, of course, then produced a freak run of form, not only benefitting from a long sequence of clean sheets (a bonanza shared by all his fellow Arsenal defenders), but also racking up improbable numbers of 'defensive contributions' a few times, and picking up a goal and a couple of assists - for a whopping 55-point return from Gameweeks 6-10. It would have hurt to miss out on that;... but I think I would have done. Arsenal's defence became so dominant during that period that it would have been very tempting to bring in Gabriel - or the cheaper Timber - for Tarkowski or Senesi. (Heck, some people were even piling in for 3 Arsenal defenders!!!)

In the midfield, I bet on Palmer rather than Salah (too expensive this year, and obviously going to fall far short of last year's returns - although still likely to be worth considering if he hit any hot streaks; though that signally failed to happen in the opening three months), decided to go without Saka for now (because of Arsenal's tricky early-season fixtures; I got a bit lucky on that risky gamble when he picked up an early injury), and flipped a coin between Cunha and Mbeumo (again, arguably, a risky bet, given their newness to the team, and United's long history of being able to convert gold into dross). Of course, the coin came down on Cunha - who was the one who started more brightly, and then succumbed to an early injury. Palmer too had an injury problem straight away; although it wasn't immediately apparent, inhibiting his performance in the first game, forcing him to withdraw early in the second, missing the next two, and then dropping out quickly again in the fifth: cruel and unusual punishment indeed - tempting you to think that it was no big deal, would only keep him out for a game or two, he might be worth hanging on to.... I'd like to think that I would have offloaded him promptly; but more probably I think I would have kept him until GW5, by which time a lot of damage would have been done.  Cunha, at least, was an easy swap for Mbeumo, who soon started coming good. And Palmer's indisposition would have created an easy opportunity for me to bring in the initially overlooked Semenyo, although I might only have got a couple of decent returns out of him, as his opening hot streak would fizzle after GW7; fortunately, that was an ideal time to swap him out for the returning Saka or the suddenly in-form Trossard.

My mid-budget selections of Ndiaye, Enzo Fernandez, and Mo Kudus looked good at first - although the latter kept showing a lot of promise without delivering very much, and would not, I think, have survived in my squad for more than a few weeks. However, none of the 'usual suspects' among the game's goalscorers and creatives consistently came good in the first few months of the season, and we were left hopefully casting the dice on novelty options. For a long time, the top of the midfielder charts were dominated by fairly unexpected players like promoted Burnley's Jaidon Anthony,.... and a bunch of central midfielders who were doing quite well off the new 'defensive points' and happened to have picked up a random goal or two. (Gravenberch, Caicedo, Zubimendi, Palhinha, Tonali). Kudus I think I would have swapped out for Eze, in his last couple of games for Palace; and then probably swapped him for Anthony, or perhaps Forest's promising new winger, Dan Ndoye. I feel sure I would also have been tempted to go in early for Phil Foden on his eventual return from injury - because of the shortage of other compelling options; though I fear I would probably not have picked him in anticipation of his impressive comeback game against Manchester United, but only for his subsequent run of blanks!!

The only player in that position category who was pretty regularly registering points early on was Antoine Semenyo. I have historically been quite a fan of his; but I grew gadually more sceptical last season - he seems to lack consistency, his hot spells are never sustained for all that long; and I think he suffers a bit from competition with so many other goalscoring creatives in the Bournemouth squad (Kluivert being out of action for much longer than originally anticipated was possibly a major factor in his early success this year). I'd like to think I would have brought him in fairly early, but..... I suspect I might have hesitated until his returns were about to start drying up! And at that time, I would have been tempted by the return of Bukayo Saka - although he was a little bit slow out of the blocks. Trossard was actually the better Arsenal midfielder to be on, from about GW7 onwards; although Rice probably had the better - or at least steadier - long-term prospects. It would have been a tough choice around then between a second Arsenal defender (for me, Gabriel; and then Timber, when he got injured) and a second midfielder (Trossard during his scoring streak).

I would have resisted Grealish, despite his red-hot start - fancying that he was ultimately only an assists man, whereas Ndiaye might offer goals and assists (and I didn't want to be doubled up on one club in one position). Bruno Fernandes, initially a pretty popular selection, I've found eminently avoidable in recent years: only returns well in short streaks - and that seemed even more likely to be the case this season, as Amorim was expected to be playing him in a deeper midfield role. (To be fair, he did show a lot of promise early on, often abandoning his 'pivot' brief to forage forward, and basically trying to carry his struggling team single-handed. But his returns were very up-and-down, with strong Gameweeks 3 and 5 being interspersed with far more disappointing returns, missed penalties, etc....)  I also refused to 'drink the Kool-Aid' on Tijjani Reijnders (probably now destined to be remembered most for the inevitably popular FPL team name 'Breakfast at Tijjani's'!!). He was undoubtedly tempting value-for-money, but City's early-season form didn't overly impress me, and, although he did at least prove to have a regular start nailed down (which I'd initially doubted), I feared that he was usually being played too deep to be a really regular attacking threat, and expected his season goal-haul would be much closer to the 4 that he got in his first season with AC Milan than the 15 he claimed in his second.  [I may yet be proved wrong on this. There is a lot to like about him, and I think he's been one of the best of the league's new arrivals so far. And 4 or 5 goals for a midfielder isn't at all bad; especially for one who only cost 5.5 million at the start of the year But I have a hunch he won't even reach that many. And he's not picking up much on the 'defensive contributions' either....]

The biggest of my opening gambles that failed to pay off was trying to do without Haaland - when he started with a string of big hauls, just as he did last year. I knew that might backfire on me. And with little to spend the money on in midfield, I should have been able to quickly back-track - at least once Palmer and Cunha were ruled out, perhaps by GW2 or 3 (I would surely have had to eat a 'hit' to get it done promptly...). I acknowledged pretty early on that he was, for the time being, a rare must-have this season. However, I don't think I would have got great captaincy returns off him, as I would have often been tempted by rival options, especially in midifeld (and I didn't fancy his chances of a big haul against Bournemouth or Everton - or even Burnley, really) - and yet, again and again, these perfectly rational alternate picks failed to come through, while Haaland knocked in braces.... even when City were playing quite poorly, even against opponents with reasonable defences.

I'd started off with Joao Pedro, Ekitike (another risky punt on a newly-arrived player, but one that paid off for once - though we knew he was only going to be a short-term investment, as likely to be sidelined or dropped into a regular rotation once the Isak deal materialised) and Strand Larsen (yet another early injury victim!!).  That was OK for a little while; but all three of them would probably have to be replaced fairly soon (not ideal, but usually unavoidable at the start of the season!!). I would have had Richarlison for a while as well, after his promising start. But I was quick to recognise the form of Thiago and Woltemade, and would have had them alongside Haaland fairly early on that's still looking a pretty strong trident a third of the way into the season.

At least I avoided the error of piling in prematurely for Isak or Eze - as so many people did, having rashly assumed that they would immediately start for their their new clubs, and immediately be at their best, and immediately have a huge impact. It was obviously going to take Isak a few weeks at least, given his poor conditioning after skipping training with Newcastle for a couple of months; and with Eze, I really worried that it might never happen - as Arsenal's stye of play just wouldn't suit him. He and the team are adapting to each other better than I'd feared, and he made a lively start at his new club, beneftiting enormously from the extended injury absence of Odegaard, which has enabled him to shift into a freer central playmaker role (not one he's likely to keep for long, presumably); but still, he's not the regular game-changer he was at Palace. However, FPL managers who punted on him may feel that their faith was repaid by that one enormous haul he just bagged against Spurs - another one that it was painful to miss out on; but I can't see him repeating a return like that (Spurs were epically bad in that one! Surely no other opponent will give him that much space around the edge of the box?!).

Yes, I'd missed out on the two biggest returners, Semenyo and Haaland, in the early weeks (though would have repented on at least one, possibly both, in time to catch a good bit of that run of returns from them), and was hit by 4 injuries to key picks almost immediately (not the worst run of injuries I've ever suffered, but.... pretty devastating!).  I fear I would also have done pretty poorly with my captaincy, regularly favouring guys who played great games but somehow only came away with 4, 6, 8 poins (before doubling them) to show for them; I would have had a few better returns from Haaland and Mbeumo, and I fancied Munoz for Gameweek 12, who came through very handsomely (but got booked, and missed out on defensive points by one 'contribution' - vexing!).

So,  a really, really bad start for me, this year (possibly my worst ever!): I was down around the 3 million mark in Gameweek 1, and must have slipped even lower - probably well outside the top half - with a couple more probably very bad weeks early on. In general, though, fairly steady upward progress was likely thereafter - although I might have suffered heavily for passing on Gabriel during his exceptionally hot run. 

I think I'd have just about made 700 points by now; not sure where that would put me in the global ranking - just about in the top 1,000,000 I should think; or getting pretty close, anyway. And I would have held off using any of my Bonus Chips yet, so would still be trailing the 'early leaders' quite badly - but hoping o make up more ground soon if those chip plays work out nicely for me. That's actually starting to feel pretty 'successful' - after my atrocious start! And it's been a particularly tough season - and a weirdly low-scoring season all-around - .so far for everyone; most of the people I keep tabs on as consistently smart and usually quite high-performing FPL managers are still outside the top 2 or 3 million at the moment! It's nice to be inside the top 200 or 300k for most of the season; but it doesn't always happen. Just got to roll with the punches!