GW10 - What did we learn?

 

Great to see Newcastle finally starting to click again, especially in defence, with Lewis Hall doing a pretty good job of minimizing Saka's threat (nice to see an unusually articulate, as well as humble, post-match interview - in which he gave full credit to Willock and Joelinton for substantially helping out with that mission). Eddie Howe will no doubt be particularly pleased with his boys' 'intensity' numbers, massively dominating Arsenal on sprints, duels, etc., despite being slightly behind on scoring chances and xG, nearly two-to-one down on overall possession. And Gordon and Isak are starting to look back to their best (which is very, very good indeed: people who'd had them in their FPL squads from early in the season probably should have kept faith a bit longer, rather than transferring them out in the past few weeks... only to now want them back!). Howe, perhaps, often doesn't get enough credit for his tactical acuity; but he really did a number on Arteta here. Arsenal, of course, are having their struggles with injuries - particularly in defence, where they've rarely, if ever, been able to start their first-choice back-four (indeed, there's still probably some doubt about what that first choice line-up is - would it be Timber or Calafiori at left-back? doesn't matter that much when they're both injured all the time....); but this has been an entirely expected problem since the start of the season, when they had a really disastrous transfer window, losing just about all of their existing back-up players, while failing to land any of their big-name targets... apart from the fragile Calafiori (who doesn't seem to be an automatically favoured starter, even when he's fit). After that, it was just about inconceivable - absent some huge slices of good luck -  that they could replicate their close title challenge of last season.

While I fondly remember the Brian Clough glory days from my childhood, and am thus happy to see Forest back in the top flight;.... them being third in the table after Saturday's games does seem somewhat unbelievable, a Bizarro Universe moment. Sorry, Forest fans, but I really can't see this lasting - especially with the fixture-run you've now got until Christmas. But... I've also been feeling this way for the past month or more about Chris Wood's astonishing run of goal-scoring form... and yet the big lug somehow keeps popping up for another one every bloody week! The big dilemma for Lopategui now may be what to do with Morgan Gibbs-White. He has been inspirational for the Forest for the past two years, their major creative force. But that is perhaps becoming less the case now that the advanced full-backs, Moreno and Aina, are establishing themselves as a main creative channel to Wood, and the wide attackers Hudson-Odoi and Elanga are also looking regularly dangerous. Gibbs-White's preference for playing far up the field often leaves them a bit light in the centre of midfield, and Forest have actually looked a lot more cohesive with Elliot Anderson playing in there for the past few games. It would be nice to find a way of playing both of them, but that's quite a challenge. And West Ham really didn't look miles off it here; but for Alvarez getting himself sent off for two silly fouls, they might have been able to make more of a fight of this; Bowen, at least, was again looking very sharp.

The gods obviously do not love Ipswich, who had three points snatched away from them by a pair of diabolical refereeing decisions (and VAR non-decisions), for the penalty and the sending-off of Phillips, late in the game (although Phillips was lucky not to have been sent off already, for an unnecessarily combative display). Leicester's late equaliser from Ayew was a very well-worked goal; but the opportunity would probably not have occurred if their opponents had still been at full strength; and Muric - although, for the first time in a few weeks, he managed not to stink the place up with his performance this time - should perhaps have stopped it. Leicester, apart from the class of Buonanotte (OK, and Hermansen in goal...), really don't seem to have very much going for them at all. I'd still take Ipswich to finish above them, though both might well end in the bottom three. Sorry, Ipswich fans - that partial vote-of-confidence will probably jinx them even more.

Injury-disrupted City continue to misfire; and when Foden is as largely ineffective as here, you can start to understand why Pep seems so reluctant to start him regularly - something has broken down here, in the relationship between the two, I suppose (or maybe Phil's just suffered a slump in confidence, after his frustrating Euros... following on from a year of being repeatedly outshone by Cole Palmer....? [He was only 'Player of the Season' because he put in the flashiest displays for the title-winning club; everyone realises Rodri was more crucial to City's success, and Palmer was way the most important creative player in the league last year.]). Bournemouth, after their very shakey start to the season, really seem to be getting their shit together now; they were magnificent in defence (Kerkez likely to be the most-transferred-in player this week! maybe Travers also, if people are willing to gamble that he's playing well enough to keep the start ahead of Kepa), and well worth the three points. Some good work from Ederson - particularly the double-save to thwart that early three-on-one break - kept City in the game; if one or two of those attempts had sneaked in, or Tavernier's sweet curler that beat Ederson but slammed against the foot of the post, then their victory would have looked much more comfortable. City deserve credit for their determination in mounting a dangerous late surge (can't help thinking that they looked considerably more dangerous in the attacking third once Rico Lewis had come on; that can't bode well for anyone who's gambled on Walker getting a run of starts again....); but if they had scrambled an equaliser, it would have seemed unjust; Bournemouth were way the better side here. Gvardiol owners are enjoying further momments of smugness after yet another outstanding goal; but, although this form is shaking my confidence in my initial assessment slightly, I still stand by the view that he can't maintain this level of attacking producitivity all season, and hence, City's poor defensive record and the inevitable minutes-risk (even if he doesn't lose Pep's favuor at some point, he's surely bound to be rested quite a bit during the latter stages of the Champions League...) make him very dubious value for a 6-million-pound asking price. Evanilson is probably getting on people's radar as (yet another) cheap forward option now; whilst the disillusionment with Haaland reaches lemming-like intensity.

Such a pity that Brighton could not convert their first-half dominance into a decisive margin at Anfield! You have to give credit to Slot for revitalizing his team at half-time (his in-game management, tweaking tactics and personnel, or just getting the lads fired up to show a bit more determination, really seems to be top-level); but I question how far the initial selection was to blame for their drab first-half showing. Many FPL folks now seem to be convinced that Nunez and Gakpo will be, should be, the preferred starters in centre and left attack; but Diaz and Jota, apart from being better finishers, are just so much more incisive in the press. Kadioglu is another player likely to get The Sheep excited, after his stunning goal (although he followed that up with a stunning miss, so I'm not getting too carried away...); but while Brighton keep on leaking goals so easily, you have to be wary of any of their assets, especially in defence. Verbruggen, Ayari, and Rutter appeal to me a lot more, anyway; and Welbeck, of course, who appears to be enjoying a splendid 'Indian summer' to his career. And if Konate has broken his wrist, I suppose Gomez - rather than Quansah - is due to get a run of starts. It will be interesting to see how that affects Liverpool's form; Gomez has never really convinced me - he has great qualities on the ball, going forward, but always looks very error-prone in the defensive third, especially when playing at centre-back. (And he costs 4.8 million anyway??  I suppose people might see him as a good replacement for Konate, if Liverpool can keep their good defensive record going. But Konate has been the prime component of that defensive record, so that's quite an IF.....)

Southampton finally got a deserved win, one that's been a long time coming - although this was the one game of the weekend where there were a couple of dodgy refereeing calls which may have skewed the match outcome. Overall, though, Everton looked a bit flat in this one, and Southampton were much more fluent in moving the ball forward. They're increasingly looking to me like the promoted side most likely to survive - although they have got a bit of a mountain to climb after their miserable start. While I think Palace and Wolves have too much quality to remain down the bottom end for too long, Everton and Leicester look very likely to be in the relegation battle all season.

Palace, despite missing most of their regular midfield, actually didn't look at all bad; but both they and their hosts Wolves are still much better going forward than they are defending. Cunha's bright form is the main encouragement for Wolves's fans; but for FPL purposes, since he's playing as a fairly deep support striker most of the time, he is rarely likely to claim goals of his own, only provide assists for others; Strand Larsen probably looks the better prospect for a forward pick from the club.

Spurs v Villa looked very much like a battle of upper mid-table sides, both of them miles off their best, at least in the first half; Villa were barely worth their early lead, nicked in a goalmouth scramble. Ange must have put some amphetamines in the half-time cuppa, because Spurs were completely transformed when they came out again after the break. There are still concerning signs for both teams, though: Villa looked very, very flat, and Ollie Watkins has (only temporarily, I'm sure) mislaid his scoring boots. FPL managers must be alarmed about Ange's selection and tactics, apparently no longer regarding Maddison as an essential starter, and feeling able to pull Son off only 10 minutes into the second half (was he still concerned about his recovery from the thigh muscle injury?). And although Vicario is stiiving to be a bit more assertive at set-pieces, he is so far achieving only very modest success with this. 

The Sheep are now bleating after Dominic Solanke, who did have an excellent game here; but his first goal looked offside (if only very narrowly; and there was something odd going on with the VAR here, as the call was apparently 'too close' for them to draw in their customary lines on the screen?!), and his second was put on a plate for him by a staggeringly unselfish square ball from Richarlison. The problem remains for Solanke that he's often dropping quite deep in his link-up play, and not getting into goalscoring positions as much as you'd like from a primary goalscorer; even if that changes, Spurs just haven't been very consistent so far this season; and even if that changes, Solanke's probably going to have to share the goals with Son and Johnson, and a few others - all of which make him, for me, decidedly not a very attractive prospect in FPL. (But.... two goals?! Just watch: he'll be the most transferred-in player this week!!)  There's also a chorus of bleats, of course, about Morgan Rogers, who picked up another goal here. I remain unimpressed, as this was so untypical of his usual play, or indeed of Villa's usual play: he was only in the middle of the six-yard box because they were trying out a special set-piece routine to exploit Vicario's notorious bully-ability in these situations. It doesn't seem likely that we'll find him in those sorts of positions, or scoring those sorts of goals very often - maybe ever again.

The game at Old Trafford was a frustrating, and sometimes ill-tempered affair. It might have caught fire if one of several missed chances had gone in, but there was nothing much to get excited about, apart from Caicedo's excellent drive from the edge of the box to secure a share of the points. Palmer, I thought, had an absolutely outstanding game (as did the central double-pivot of Caicedo and Lavia), but most of his teammates were strangely lacklustre here; Neto and Madueke failed to get involved in the game very much at all. The post-Ten Hag United played with a little more spirit, but not much incisiveness; no real sign of a 'new manager bounce' for van Nistelrooy here.

I couldn't figure out much about the Fulham v Brentford game from very brief highlights on Youtube, but the match reports indicate it was another case of Brentford having nothing much in the attacking locker apart from their high-tempo starts and occasional set-piece routines. At least they showed a bit more defensive solidity than they often have, soaking up Fulham's pressure until added-on time (Flekken once again racking up a lot of 'saves' points, but once again failing to keep a clean sheet; it is somewhat bizarre that such a poor keeper, in such a poor defensive team, should actually be doing reasonably well in the goalkeeper rankings, just because of the huge number of stops he's required to make in every game...).  Fulham's patience and discipline was ultimately rewarded; and I think Robinson and Tete, although they've been pretty quiet so far, are starting to look like tempting defensive options for FPL.

A little bit of Zen (14)

 

"Thoughts meander like a restless wind inside a letterbox...."

John Lennon - 'Across the Universe'

This is one of my favourite covers of The Beatles: Fiona Apple's version of 'Across the Universe', commissioned for the soundtrack of Gary Ross's 1998 film, Pleasantville.

Dilemmas of the week - GW10

Every week, we need to take a long hard look at our squad, and ask ourselves if we want to make any changes....

And even if we do see a pressing case for a change here or there, we then need to weigh that against the possible advantage of saving our transfer - 'rolling' it over to use in a future week. This option achieves greater tactical complexity this season with the new rule that allows us to save up as many as 5 Free Transfers to use at one time. If we ever manage to do that, it would in effect be a 'mini Wildcard', enabling us to conduct a major squad overhaul in one fell swoop (particularly useful as there are a handful of 'premium' players who cost so much more than everyone else that you can't conveniently move them in and out of your squad without making multiple other changes as well).

Then, of course, occasionally multiple changes may seem so inescapable that we have to consider whether it's worth spending points on 1 or 2 extra transfers (a tactic which obviously deserves a whole post of its own one day).

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 10?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Well, at least it doesn't look like anyone picked up any problems during this week's League Cup ties (well, except for Savinho; and it seems he might be OK...?), but....  There is still an infuriating lack of clarity about the condition of the Arsenal defence: Gabriel, Timber, and Calafiori are still 'doubts' for the weekend. (Arteta has made some optimistic noises about Gabriel; but that means nothing. He has become notorious for being 'economical with the truth' about the injury status of his players.)  My guess would be that, in the absence of any bad news, we can probably expect Gabriel to be back next weekend.... maybe this week; but the other two will probably be resting and recovering until the other side of the next international break. This will probably mean some windfall starts for anyone who took a punt on Kiwior (and maybe Zinchenko??) getting a run of gametime at some point. But it's probably rather bad news for everyone else relying on Arsenal assets. With so much of last season's success founded on the solidity and consistency of their back-line, they look immediately more vulnerable, and less dangerous, when that is badly disrupted; and even the mercurial Saka may struggle to make an impact if they're often going to find themselves with their backs to the wall, as they did in the latter part of Sunday's game. Still, at least Saliba's back from his one-match suspension; so, maybe things won't be too bad.

Son, Kepa, Johnstone, Gordon, Dunk, Hinshelwood, and McNeil all went missing before or during the last batch of games - but it seems there's a chance they might be back this week. Callum Wilson, Luke Shaw, and Morgan Gibbs-White might also be nearing a return.

Alisson and Jota, DeBruyne and Doku, and Joao Pedro remain sidelined for an indefinite (though not 'long') period. But it seems Jack Grealish might be back in contention for this weekend. (Does that mean Phil Foden might be left on the bench again??)

Sancho and Ward-Prowse, as loanees, are ineligible to play this weekend against their parent clubs.

And damn, White, Gvardiol, Rodri, and Wood emerged as late injury doubts for the weekend as well; that could cause a lot of FPL hurt.

And Eze too. (No surprise there...)  And Lerma and Wharton....  (The gods do not love Crystal Palace, evidently.)

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Well, Areola seems to have lost his place to Fabianski - although there might have been a fitness issue at play in that decision as well. And while Fabianski made a couple of outstanding saves, and I can see Lopategui might be reluctant to change the lineup after a much-improved performance like that.... the Polish veteran wasn't actually that convincing overall, had a number of very wobbly moments. I've always found it a bit frustrating that West Ham are the only club who have 'two No. 1s', two keepers who are both good enough to deserve the start, with no very clear priority between them. I wouldn't be rushing to bring in Fabianski, when he might suddenly get dropped for his younger rival again... (But a lot of FPL managers had gone for Fabianski anyway as a random cheap back-up choice, and are now reaping unexpected benefits from that selection.)

Sancho was dropped in favour of Pedro Neto in the last game. That might just have been to get him bedded into the side ahead of the hard-to-predict clash with Manchester United this weekend (for which Jadon Sancho, still a United player, is not available); but he had a stormer - so, you have to fear that Sancho could now be out for a while.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

I've been thinking for a couple of weeks that Andy Robertson has been looking strangely out of sorts and a little slow, and that was even more evident last Sunday. Admittedly, having to deal with both Saka and Havertz, when both are on fire, is a thankless task. But I suspect he's been playing with some kind of injury problem, and might get rested in favour of Tsimikas for a little while now.

And, oh good grief, Muric - again!! The first time he produced a colossal shit-show of a performance, at least it was early in the season, and he was facing Erling Haaland in a particularly mean mood. But when he did it again against much weaker opposition a couple of weeks ago, the alarm bells began to sound. And then he threw the game against Brentford away - a fixture Ipswich could have and should have taken all three points from. I don't know who Ipswich's back-up keeper is.... but it's looking like one of the ball-boys would be less of a liability than this guy. This is a major test of Kieran McKenna's management. Perhaps he'll judge that Muric is basically sound enough in technique, and strong enough mentally, to bounce back from this string of catastrophic blunders. Or maybe he'll think that it might be better for team spirit to stand by his beleaguered keeper for a while longer, even if he does present a hazard to the club's fortunes. But I call bullshit on both those excuses: the guy is costing you points you can't afford to lose - he needs to be axed at once.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Well, paradoxically, pretty much the whole of the Manchester United side! And since there is typically a positive 'bounce' following a change of manager (and likely to be particularly pronounced, you would think, in an instance like this, where the manager has been a 'dead man walking' for 18 months or more, and had not appeared to be popular with the players, and was holding the team back with his perverse tactical system), you have to fancy that United might cause some mayhem for the next few weeks. But that might be a very short-lived phenomenon; heck, it might not even really happen at all. And if it does, it's impossible to predict which players will thrive most in the new atmosphere at the club. So, I wouldn't be rushing to buy any United players just yet; let's wait and watch for two or three weeks...

And yes, Nico Jackson was absolutely outstanding again. But he's been outstanding pretty much all season, so shouldn't only just be coming on to people's radars.  Pre-season, I wouldn't have fancied him to get anywhere near Watkins or Isak, or maybe even Mateta or Havertz or Solanke; but on current form, it's looking like he could give Haaland a bit of a run for his money, and is becoming a favourite to be 'best of the rest' among the forwards this term. Ditto, Chris Wood - I keep thinking that his 'streak' must surely be about to end; and yet it just keeps going and going. If he can sustain this sort of form, he too - incredibly - is going to be in the hunt for the Golden Boot (and might prove to have been one of the picks of the season).

Pedro Neto put in an eye-catching performance against Newcastle too; though there must be a continuing uncertainty about how far he might have to share minutes with Sancho (and Mudryk?), even if he does become a more frequent starter.

Mark Travers played a blinder in the Bournemouth goal - but surely won't displace Kepa as first-choice on the basis of that one performance. (Or will he...??)

And Lallana continues to impress as Southampton's most crucial player - but he's not likely to produce that many FPL points playing for Southampton.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

So, farewell then....

 Alas - goodbye (at last), Uncle Erik.

Though few people, I imagine, will mourn his passing from Old Trafford. The overwhelming sensation, for most of us, is probably rather a sense of profound relief that we've all now been put out of his misery.

It had indeed become embarrassing, painful to witness this ongoing slow-motion train-wreck over so many months....  It is baffling that the board did not get rid of him last summer (an untypically brilliant performance to clinch the FA Cup scarcely compensating for another dismal season in the League); or during the last international break. Van Nistelrooy has recently been much-touted as at least an interim option; but I suppose they didn't fancy handing the reins to him for any extended period, and thus weren't willing to do so until they had a substantive replacement finally secured. And Thomas Tuchel taking the England job may have thrown a spanner in the works. Even if he wasn't their prime target, he must surely have been in the conversation, and other managers they'd approached will probably have thought he might have been their preferred option - and hence that his apparent spurning of their overtures presented an opportunity for them to intensify their own negotiation over the position.... and so drag things out for another week or two.

Once upon a time, it would have been just about inconceivable that any top manager would take a post in charge of a national team in preference to the Manchester United job. But this, sadly, is how far they have fallen - from being 'The Greatest Club in the World' 15 years ago.... to an object of general derision now.  And the real reason for Ten Hag surviving the last 5 or 6 months may not have been that unexpected FA Cup win, but the fact that the United job has become such a 'poisoned chalice' that none of the several managers said to have been tapped up for it showed any interest in accepting the offer.

I never felt Ten Hag was a good fit for the position. United's fans expect an expansive attacking style of play - exciting to watch, even if not consistently successful; but the Dutchman's attitude seemed to be more dour and pragmatic. And the United job - even more than those at the other top Premier League clubs - really demands someone who's very media-savvy, who cuts a charismatic figure in interviews. Poor Erik always came across as stiff and pompous. And, over the last year or so, he, not unnaturally, increasingly had rather a hunted air about him - which did not inspire general confidence.

Yes, he came to a club with all kinds of structural problems, a squad that was a total mess, with a long history of under-performance. And he has had some ridiculous injury problems to cope with. But even when players were fit, he seemed to be constantly chopping and changing between them - never sure what his best starting eleven should be: particularly in defence, where Lindelof, Varane, or Maguire could never seem to get an extended run of starts, even when they played well (Lindelof, I thought, was particularly hard done-by); but he also couldn't make his mind up about how to juggle his attacking assets - Martial, Rashford, Antony, Garnacho, Elanga, Diallo. There was never any consistency in the selections, nor any clear 'identity' in the style of play; and very often, his players on the pitch looked lost, as if they just didn't know what they were supposed to be doing. This might be tolerable on occasion, early in a manager's tenure; but with Ten Hag, this never changed across two years! And he rarely seemed to be able to adapt his tactics, or use new personnel off the bench, to improve matters when games were going badly for them. That remarkable FA Cup victory gave a tantalising glimpse of what he might have been, should have been capable of - a shrewd gameplan to knock City out of their stride, and his players fully invested in it, all giving 110%. Why did he scarcely manage to produce any hint of such effectiveness in the 85 EPL matches he led United out for??

One suspects that his high-profile spat - which seemed petty on both sides - with Jadon Sancho was just the tip of an iceberg of poor player relations. It seemed he might have long since 'lost the dressing room', as most of his players rarely seemed willing to really 'put in a shift' for him.

Above all, it seemed incredibly perverse that he persisted in a tactical set-up that could never possibly work with the players he had available. If you're going to pursue an aggressive high press, you need to compress the play in the opposition half by keeping a high defensive line; but in order to do that, you need at least one or two very fast defenders who can get back quickly to deal with counter-attacks (Nope), atacking players, particularly in the wide areas, who are willing to run their arses off to get back and help out with thwarting a counter (Garnacho, Rashford?? Nope!), and, ideally, a highly mobile central defensive midfielder who can usually snuff out such attacks at source (Nope). Instead, because of the chronic lack of pace at the back and in the holding role (Casemiro reads the game superbly, but has no legs any more), and lack of reliable forward cover down the flanks,... his defensive line tended to drop very, very deep - leaving 30 yards of open space for opposing attackers to canter through at will (poor Kobbie Mainoo last season often being left with the thankless task of trying to police 25-30% of the entire pitch on his own...). And on a related point - really, what was the point of buying one of the world's best ball-playing goalkeepers if you never let him leave his area?  All of fhat was just self-destructive lunacy. So, YES, he absolutely had to go. It was long, long, long overdue.

As usual, my man Adam Clery at FourFourTwo is largely in agreement with me. He's been very swift to put out a video on Ten Hag's departure.

He's done one on Ruben Amorim as well now - thanks, Adam.

How's it going SO FAR?

 

Since we're just about a quarter of the way through the season, this seems like an appropriate point to pause and assess our progress so far.

As I noted right at the start of the season, a bad start can scupper your chances for the year. Being quick out of the blocks is pretty much essential to a high ranking at the end of the season - or, certainly, gives you a HUGE advantage in chasing that dream. Picking the first squad is a real lottery. After even a few weeks, we start to get a pretty good sense of who the players (and teams) in the best form are, and we can narrow down the pool of potential picks quite dramatically. But in that opening week, no-one really has any idea; we're all just making hopeful guesses. And if you happen to have an outstanding Gameweek 1, chances are you'll continue to do pretty well in Gameweeks 2 and 3 as well, since you've guessed correctly on who the majority of the most productive players in the opening phase of the season are going to be; and you won't have to worry about using up transfers, perhaps even resorting to an early Wildcard, to fix problems in your squad, which is an enormous additional advantage. So, a strong Gameweek 1 can leave you galloping off gleefully into the distance, with an intimidating lead over the chasing pack right from the outset; a lead which is very likely to get even bigger over the next few weeks, because that opening advantage will continue for a while and compound itself. The rest of us, the unfortunate ones who didn't make such successful guesses, are not playing catch-up..... we're just desperately trying to stop falling even further behind as soon as possible.

I tend to have very weak starts to the season. In fact, I've had two or three really AWFUL ones (last year was a particularly egregious disaster, which I might share some details of on this blog one day); so, this year doesn't feel so bad by comparison. (A sense of perspective can be a great comfort in times of trouble.)

I was pretty happy with my squad: it looked strong and well-balanced. And most of the players I'd picked would come good soon. But, unfortunately, almost none of them picked up anything in that first week. And I'd put my captain's armband on Isak rather than Salah. And I didn't have Haaland (although that wasn't yet such a calamity as it was about to become). So, I kicked off my season a few points below the global average, and outside (just) the top 50%. Horrendous.

Going without Haaland was a risky though viable strategy. But then the bugger went and got back-to-back hattricks in the next two weeks (which was hardly to be 'expected'; City had started sluggishly, with Rodri recovering from a muscle injury sustained at the Euros; and West Ham had looked as if they should be a decent mid-table side, while Ipswich seemed likely to be the best of the promoted sides, and had given a very good account of themselves at Anfield in GW1). Some folks even punted their Triple Captain chip on him in one of those weeks! So, those of us who'd bet on the non-Haaland option were irrevocably screwed by the end of August.

I'd decided to steer away from Arsenal attacking assets too, being doubtful that they could build on last season's success after a disappointing summer transfer window, and an early spate of injuries. But Saka and Havertz both had an excellent opening week (and, although Havertz soon faded a little, Saka continued strong until he picked up a short-term injury in GW7). That choice also harmed me in the early part of the season.

I'd also failed to anticipate that Chris Wood and Danny Welbeck would start the season so strongly. (Come on; did anyone anticipate that??)  And I remained hesitant to bring either of them in, since I always had other pressing issues to use my transfers on; and their advanced age, poor injury history, and record of never keeping a hot scoring streak going very long, all suggested that their early-season form was likely to be a flash-in-the-pan (every week I've thought that; and every week, they keep banging them in!). If my crystal ball had told me that so many (virtually all!) of the cheaper forward options would start the season so strongly, I probably wouldn't have bothered to go with Watkins and Isak as my strike force, and could have saved a bit of money for elsewhere in the squad. Watkins had some kind of fitness issue at the start of the season, failed to have much of an impact in the first few games, and kept getting subbed off perilously not-far-past the hour mark; but he has finally started to come good with 5 goals (and 2 assists) since then. I still have concerns about him, though, as I've found Villa's form a bit unconvincing so far (it seems as if they're saving their best efforts for their debut Champsions League campaign). Isak also seemed to be impaired by a slight fitness issue at first; and then broke a toe. And for my cheap back-up, I'd gone for Muniz at Fulham - who struggled to regain his excellent form from the end of last season, and was rather hastily dropped in favour of Raul Jimenez - yet another 'old warhorse' improbably recapturing his best form after years in the doldrums. Watkins, Isak, and Muniz had looked like a very strong attacking trio before the start of the season - but none of them came through for me.

I'm pleased that I was on Salah and Palmer (and Mbeumo and Smith Rowe) from the outset, who have been paying off quite nicely. I also got on Robinson and Lewis, and Davis and Delap quite early; although they haven't yet brought huge rewards, I am at present fairly content that they look like smart and prescient picks that may do quite well for me. Alas, I keep guessing wrong most of the time with my captaincy picks: only Super-Mo, in GWs 2 and 3, has given me a decent return on the armband so far.

I had been thinking that this season hadn't been too bad for injuries, really (at least, not compared to the record-breaking number I suffered last year!); but on reviewing my transfer record so far, I am reminded that I lost Ben White - my premium defensive pick - almost immediately to a knee problem; also Mykolenko. And when Luis Diaz started getting left out in favour of Cody Gakpo, I brought in Dwight McNeil, who immediately got injured. I also gave Eddie Nketiah a try; he started brightly at Palace, but quickly faded... and then got injured.

Other strokes of ill-fortune I suffered in my early selections included: punting on Valentin Barco as an 'investment pick' at the start of the season (he had been widely expected to start the first two or three games, as there were so many injuries elsewhere in the Brighton defence; but instead he was suddenly packed off to Spain on loan [at least his price was - unexpectedly* - frozen, so I didn't have to worry about getting rid of him immediately; but I did as soon as possible, because I didn't want to risk having an empty seat on the bench for long]); going for Henderson and Munoz, but finding that they and Palace were in flakey form at the start of the season, and deciding I needed to offload them quite quickly; then going for Areola (a mainstay of mine for most of last season) to replace Henderson, and have him promptly suffer two minor injuries... and then lose his place. And I've had Bowen for a while - who's played really, really well,... without actually producing many points so far.  Oh, and I brought in Haaland on an early Wildcard... and his goals immediately dried up. (Hope springing eternal.... I just made him captain against Southampton - while three of my midfielders returned much better points. Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear.)

At least.... starting from such a low point, I was easily able to maintain 'green arrows' of upward progress through the next five gameweeks. But then, I hit a couple of disastrous returns in GWs 7 and 8 (just wretched luck: very good teams put out, but almost no-one returned anything!). My only 'good' week so far was GW6, where Palmer's monster haul helped me to get 18 points above the global average (many people didn't yet have him??); but even there, I'd failed to make him my captain. Oh, woe!

So,  NO, my personal 'Report Card' is not showing A+ at the moment; more like C- !!!  Just about everything that could go wrong has gone wrong for me so far. But.... things can only get better...!!  Right?

* That Barco thing was very weird. I've never noticed a player being kept in the game, but have his price frozen before. Usually, when players get loaned overseas, they're removed from the player roster altogether. Although it would actually make more sense to retain them, but leave their price subject to change. Loan agreements typically have a clause providing for a player's peremptory recall, if the parent club feels it might need him after all - particularly if they're hit with a bit of a mid-season injury crisis. And it would actually be rather fun to occasionally have the opportunity to bring in a recalled loan player like this, whose price might have dropped well below 4.0 during his absence.

Luck-o-Meter (9)

 

Vardy fell a little too spectacularly, under light contact - but that did look like a penalty to me. How was there not enough in it for VAR not to suggest a second look?? And then Hudson-Odoi hit the screamer of the week - straight against the post! Early twitches of the Luck-o-Meter needle immediately in the Friday evening game...

The disallowing of Villa's first goal seemed a crazy VAR decision to me. You really want these decisions to go the attacking side's way if there's any 'element of doubt'; and this certainly didn't seem like a 'clear and obvious error' in the original on-pitch decision for VAR to overrule. I'm not even sure of the definition of 'ball in play' in the rules these days (I'm not confident the rule is clearly and sensibly written; so many of them now seem not to be!); but if we're following the example of tennis, where the outside edge of the ball touching the line is still regarded as being 'in play', then it really looked like Watkins had retrieved the ball just in time. There certainly wasn't any clear daylight between the ball and the line. (And the stills shown on TV appeared to be either side of the moment the ball would have been at its furthest over the line; this is another problem with trying to make decisions this tight - a 24-per-second framerate on video footage is often not going to give you a precise enough picture of what happened. And then there are problems with pixel-size/screen resolution, parallax distortions, optical illusions [the bright whiteness of the pitch markings can make them seem larger... and the ball smaller!],... and the fact that the shape of the ball changes when it's kicked or bounces or is rolling quickly... If the the ball's not clearly out of play, it's not out! As with off-sides, it's impossible to judge these things to the millimetre - and it's foolish to try.)

The denial of a penalty for Cash's challenge on Semenyo was also an egregiously poor decision (compounded by the fact the referee chose to penalise Semenyo for 'simulation'), and really one where VAR should have intervened to recommend a second look. Chris Kavanagh clearly thought that Cash had got his toe to the ball and/or that he had made no contact with Semenyo; but both of those assumptions were plainly wrong. Yes, of course Semenyo was 'looking for' the foul, dragging his foot - but a forward's entitled to do that; there was contact, it was enough to bring him down: penalty. And then, damn, there was a second one when a high ball dropped on to Bailey's arm in the penalty area. Yes, he was 'looking away from the ball' - but he knew exactly where it was falling, and could have moved his arm to avoid the chance of touching it... rather than moving it the other way, to bat the ball out of the penalty area. I don't usually like to see penalties given for handball - but this was another clear penalty. 

Brentford's penalty felt like the right decision. But it was a very contentious one: we've so often seen those long tussles adjudged not-penalties because the contact started before the players entered the box (Saka had a good shout turned down for that early in the season). And again it seemed rather weird that on this point, VAR felt able to adjudicate directly, without inviting the referee to take another look. What exactly are the protocols?? And Clarke's sending-off with a second yellow? Ridiculous: he clearly played the ball. But VAR apparently can't interfere in those?? Why not?? A sending-off is a sending-off: it's a huge, game-changing event. In fact, it really ought not to be difficult for VAR to make an almost-immediate judgement on every yellow card, if the referee has clearly thought there was contact with a player, when there wasn't (or no contact with the ball, when there was). And Delap hit a post right at the death!

It was unfortunate to see yellow cards for Flynn Downes and Russell Martin for complaining about a 'foul' award that plainly wasn't a foul. Doesn't have much of an impact on game outcome or FPL returns, but it's still an injustice, and a worrying example of how bad our refereeing can often be.

That crazy turnaround in the dying seconds at Brighton has to be considered a major luck-quake too: two turnovers within a few seconds, a four-on-one overload on the edge of the penalty area not being converted; then a swift break up the other end, a soft shot, big deflection, keeper watches it loop in off the underside of the bar.... Not an everyday occurrence!

We also had the bizarre FA decision to belatedly award Wissa a second goal. And although the FPL rules appear to be quite unequivocal that no points changes will be implemented after the end of a Gameweek, they apparently allow themselves to ignore that principle 'in exceptional circumstances', and might do so here. Now, I don't really begrudge Wissa owners such a windfall (no, I do....), but it just seems a bonkers decision on two levels: a) it clearly wasn't Wissa's goal; and b) if the FA is going to take so long to revise an attribution like this, it ought to fall outside of FPL relevance - since we really need to know definite scores by the end of each gameweek. The occasional 'injustice' must be suffered in this game; it's much better than having constant uncertainty about points and rankings... and how the rules are even going to be applied.

The offside against Calvert-Lewin looked very, very tight; and it took a long time to decide. And I didn't see VAR producing their 'drawing the lines' graphic - why not? The two stills widely shown on later TV coverage gave a very different impression of whether he was onside or not (my initial impression when watching the game was that he looked safe by a good 6 inches or so....). If that goal had been given, the whole course of the match, and perhaps the final result, could have been transformed.

Palmer having a fine early goal ruled out for a marginal offside was a bitter pill. And you really feel he ought to qualify for discretionary additional bonus points for his absolutely sublime pre-assist for Jackson's goal. Isak's equaliser was a very, very, very tight offside call - and I was rather surprised it went in his favour. Neto's powerful header against the post, and Isak uncharacteristically fluffing his chance after rather too easily walking the ball around Sanchez might also have been turning points in a tight match.

Spurs undoubtedly had a moment of bad luck when Johnson's instinctive flick-on crashed against the post, and then somehow didn't ricochet in off Henderson. But they had a huge moment of good luck when Van de Ven somehow escaped a red card for bundling Sarr over when he was clear through on goal. It was much worse than Saliba's offence last week; what we want here, above all, dear PGMOL, is some consistency. The argument that the Palace man was running towards the corner was nonsense: he was only at a very slight angle to the straight path to the goal line, and could easily have cut back inside again once clear of the chasing defender. He was closer to the goal than in similar incidents we've seen recently, and there was no other Spurs player anywhere near him - so, it was in fact a much more clearcut 'goalscoring opportunity' than the Saliba incident, or any other similar one I can recall this season.

Garnacho smashing one against the woodwork, Fabianski's fingertip save of Casemiro's angled header, and, most tauntingly of all, Dalot blazing over the top of an empty goal after easily getting past Fabianski in the first half could have turned that West Ham match - and possibly the whole course of United's future - around. And I cannot understand how David Coutt reversed his original no-penalty decision when the pitchside review clearly showed that Danny Ings had been kicked by his own teammate... That was one of the worst of the many dire penalty decisions we've seen this season! (And then Onana very nearly saved it... You have to feel for Erik a little bit.)

Virgil van Dijk was very lucky not to get himself sent off for a bit of needless argey-bargey with Havertz early on - appearing to flick both an elbow and a foot (twice) at the irritating German. We've seen much less aggressive movements interpreted as 'violent conduct' in the past. And Arsenal can feel even more rightly aggrieved about having their late 'winner' chalked off because of Anthony Taylor's unfathomable decision to whistle for a non-foul against Szoboszlai. Even if you feel that these were correct calls, or forgivable errors, to have two such big points of contention in the biggest match of the week is unfortunate.... and a heavy swing on the Luck-o-Meter. And, while I feel it was probably the 'right' decision under the current ridiculous formulations of the rules (but also, in this case, for the good of the game - since we never really want to see good goals ruled out for minimal 'offsides'), I was irritated by the huge delay in evaluating the possible offside against Merino for Arsenal's second goal; all of this trying to identify whose toe is nearer to the goal-line in a crowded box is just ridiculous - if the attacking player's torso is not clearly behind all of the defending team's torsos.... it's not offisde. That's what the rule used to be: it was easy to understand and to implement, and could almost always be judged accurately with the naked eye. Can we please go back to those innocent times??

There was no spate of wonder-goals, or near-misses, or shots hitting the post (some, but not nearly as many as some recent weeks); and while there were some outstanding goalkeeping performances, perhaps not so many spectacular saves either, overall. And there were no big upset results (except, perhaps, Palace nicking a win off Spurs). And most of the big names returned some points this time. So, not a lot of 'luck' in the expectedness or otherwise of general results and points-hauls - although.... the 'Team of the Week' includes Casemiro, Chalobah, Iwobi, Wissa, and George Hirst (who??), who were probably owned by just about no-one.

This didn't seem like such a terrible week for refereeing on the whole, nor were there a lot of unexpected events or particularly stupendous pieces of individual skill; so, we might have been heading for quite a modest Luck-o-Meter score. But the two penalties not given against Villa, and the AWFUL decision to award one against Manchester United push this week's score up to a.... well, I'm tempted to say 8, but I'll go with 7 out of 10, since there were relatively few other instances of unusual luck this week.

GW9 - What did we learn?

 

Vardy is probably his own worst enemy, for going down so often and so easily in the penalty area - but his shout for a penalty against Forest on Friday night looked like it was at least worth a second a look. I keep thinking Chris Wood's streak must surely end soon, but then he comes up with another couple of excellent finishes. If he can keep this up, he is going to be in the hat with Haaland and Jackson (and Watkins... and Welbeck...?!) for the Golden Boot at the end of the year - fairytale stuff! Both keepers had great games in this one. But yes, a gap in class is emerging: for the last two seasons, Forest looked like they really deserved to be relegated; they no longer do. Leicester, however..... (Sorry, Gary Lineker.)

Bournemouth's last-gasp winner felt deserved on the balance of play, for me. In fact, they can probably count themselves unfortunate that they didn't win, after having two strong penalty shouts waved away. And back-up keeper Mark Travers played a bit of a blinder. (I doubt if it was enough to keep him the start if Kepa is soon fit again; but it will cause a little anxiety to anyone who owns Kepa in FPL.)  Villa were perhaps a little heavy-legged after their midweek exertions against Bologna; but, for me, they just haven't yet recaptured the verve they were showing for so much of last season, and despite their current high league standing, I'm doubtful they'll claim a Champions League place again. The absurdly popular Morgan Rogers had a fairly subdued game, and was pulled off only 10 minutes into the second half; I wonder if that will trigger a big sell-off. (Well, not huge so far: but he had dropped over 100,000 owners by the following Friday.)

Brentford v Ipswich was a crazily entertaining game: it often felt as though a goal was likely every time a team started to break towards the opposition end. This is what happens when you have two teams who can't defend to save their lives at the moment; and the two worst keepers in the league (OK, they both pulled off a couple of very good saves; but they also had many, many horrible moments, and filled the defence in front of them with anxiety; I really think they're both ripe to be dropped). And then Liam Delap crashed one against the far post in the dying seconds?!  Crazy game! A 3-3 or 4-4 draw would have been a fairer result. I had thought Ipswich had the talent and the manager to survive their debut season with a certain amount of comfort, but it is not turning out like that at all; and McKenna is starting to look a bit harried and desperate, like he doesn't know how to fix things. And if Brentford keep leaking goals like this, they'll be in the relegation conversation too.

It was great to see Evan Ferguson playing and scoring again at last, after a long string of injury problems. I wonder if he might now be entering the crowded field of very tempting budget forward picks?! I hate to say this, but Welbeck is surely bound to succumb to an injury again sooner or later. And when Ferguson's on song, I really think he's one of the best finishers in the league, and has a lot about his game that is reminiscent of Haaland - a kind of Erling Mini-Me. And what a ridiculous end to the game - Brighton nicking the ball in the dying moments and finding themselves four-on-one, surely certain to claim a third goal to seal their victory.... and Wieffer somehow misplaces his pass to the sole Wolves defender, Tommy Doyle, who gratefully punts it upfield for a counter-attack that improbably results in a last-gasp equaliser. Brighton, for all their attacking flair, have looked very vulnerable on the counter this year; and I think that is going to make it a struggle for them to bag a place in European competition. Wolves, with Cunha looking particularly lively, may find this remarkable (and probably not really deserved) comeback the inspiration they need to start turning things around. They do have a much kinder run of fixtures ahead now, but.... they are in very deep trouble.

Russell Martin's Southampton have always looked potentially dangerous going forward (they need a better striker), but they appear to be finding some defensive rigour as well now. And Adam Lallana was absolutely outstanding for them. If they carry on like this, they might yet emerge as the one-in-three survivors amongst this year's promoted sides. I had an inkling that they would show up at The Etihad with a top performance, and was trying to discourage The Sheep this week from hazarding their Triple Captain chip on Haaland. Now, of course, there's an unreasonable backlash against Haaland because he only scored one....  Some people are never satisfied. A couple of worrying things I noticed in this game, though, were Kovacic repeatedly being blindsided by Lallana or another Southampton player breaking in behind him (while he might bring some attractive attacking elements to City's game, he is a very poor replacement for Rodri as a central defensive lychpin) and Foden looking frustrated with his teammates, waving his arms around frantically as they repeatedly ignored him for a cutback (I wonder if they've just forgotten how to play with him, because he's been frozen out for so much of this season; or if he's had some kind of dressing-room falling-out).

Everton deserve credit for battling to the end, in a game they never really looked to be in. Smith Rowe's owners will probably have taken some encouragement from his lively and varied performance in this one: he was head-to-head with his main FPL-rival-pick Dwight McNeil, and - probably to most people's surprise - came out of it on top, ir only fairly narrowly. The game might perhaps have gone differently if Calvert-Lewin's early goal had not been disallowed; that was (yet another decision) that looked harsh to the lay viewer - and took far too long to reach.

Chelsea v Newcastle was as open and entertaining as we might have expected. Palmer's early goal being 'offiside' by a kneecap was a hard blow for his FPL owners. He's really had rotten luck so far this year (so many near misses, so many assists to teammates not converted, so many penalties not given...): he could easily have nearly twice his current massive total - frightening thought! But at least we saw an appropriate VAR intervention here, with Simon Hooper being given the opportunity to walk back his silly decision to award a penalty for Nkunku's slipping over in the box. Newcastle continue to be so-near-and-yet-so-far-away.... not playing terribly, and yet just not bossing games or putting away their chances as they did for so much of the last two seasons.

It was nice to see Palace back to winning ways. I've often felt they have not been too far off it so far this season, and have possibly been the unluckiest team of the season so far (Chelsea and Bournemouth have strong claims also); and but for a trio of smart saves from Vicario, they might have won this much more comfortably. Though, more importantly for Glasner, they were finally starting to show some of last season's defensive cohesion again, as well as some more coordinated and effective pressing in the final third; that's what they need to get back up to mid-table. It's good as well to see Jean-Philippe Mateta looking sharp and hungry and happy again; it's taken a long time for him to shake off the effects of the injury problem he picked up at the Olympics, but now he looks as though he might be about to recover the form he showed at the end of last season. I've also often felt that Spurs, despite their promising start, have felt like merely a good mid-table side - who were perhaps slightly over-performing - rather than convincing 'top six' candidates; and in the last few games, they've started misfiring badly. I don't know what's going wrong with them, but I imagine there will be a mass FPL exodus from Spurs assets after this (I never felt confident enough to go in for any of them anyway...). There were a few nice balls in behind down the left from new teenage sensation Mikey Moore, but overall he had quite a quiet game - and is clearly not yet an adequate replacement for Son.... or even Werner.

Could Ten Hag's job have been saved if those efforts from Garnacho, Casemiro, and Dalot had gone in? I doubt it; but if so, it's probably all for the best that they didn't. It is a cruelty of Fate, though, that United could be so on top for most of this game and end up losing it. It's a pity that poor refereeing again dominates the headlines in this one (the penalty decision was one of the worst I can remember in a long, long time), as it was actually a cracking game: one of the best performances we've seen from United this calendar year; but West Ham were also very much improved defensively, and really looking good value for the draw, despite having to ride their luck a bit.

Arsenal v Liverpool was a fascinating tactical battle, with The Gunners clearly having the better of things in the first half: Havertz's mobility (not just dropping deep to link up with his midfield and leaving a perplexing hole in front of the Liverpool centre-backs, as he often does in his 'false 9' mode, but also drifting out on to the right a lot, to help Saka double-team a weary-looking Andy Robertson), in particular, was causing all sorts of problems. But Slot revitalized Liverpool in the second half, particularly with his tactical substitutions on the hour, the greater physicality of Szoboszlai and Gakpo giving his team more long out-ball options... while Arsenal progressively unravelled with injuries to Gabriel and Timber, and were left hanging on for their lives in the last 15 or 20 minutes. Arsenal can feel rightly aggrieved that the referee's bizarre award of a foul on Szoboszlai denied them a late winner; but on the balance of play, a draw was a fair result. However, this game has left FPL managers in even greater uncertainty about how secure Luis Diaz's minutes are in the face of strong competition from Gakpo. And Alexander-Arnold's lack of impact in the game - apart from the sublime pre-assist for Salah's equaliser - may be causing worries to those who've invested their life savings to bring him into their defence. (Ben White reminded us that he's a very strong alternative as the top premium defender this year, with an almost identical early ball to set up Saka's opener.)

A little bit of Zen (13)

 

“In the beginner’s mind there are many possibilities, in the expert’s mind there are few.”

Shunryu Suzuki

I'm definitely not 'an expert', then....  So many choices to be made every week....

Dilemmas of the Week - GW9

  

Every week, we need to take a long hard look at our squad, and ask ourselves if we want to make any changes....

If we do see a pressing case for a change here or there, we then need to weigh that against the possible advantage of saving our transfer - 'rolling' it over to use in a future week. This option achieves greater tactical complexity this season with the new rule that allows us to save up as many as 5 Free Transfers to use at one time. If we ever manage to do that, it would in effect be a 'mini Wildcard', enabling us to conduct a major squad overhaul in one fell swoop (particularly useful as there are a handful of 'premium' players who cost so much more than everyone else that you can't conveniently move them in and out of your squad without making multiple other changes as well).

Then, of course, occasionally multiple changes may seem so inescapable that we have to consider whether it's worth spending points on 1 or 2 extra transfers (a tactic which obviously deserves a whole post of its own one day).

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 9?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Saka continues to be the biggest worry for FPL managers, having missed out on the Bournemouth game last weekend and the midweek European tie. Arteta has been making positive noises about his problem not being too serious, and his having been able to take part in some training (even last week?), but many are suspicious that this might be wilful misdirection. It looks to me as if, at worst, he's only going to miss one more week, so it's really not worth using transfers on - if you want to get him back as soon as he's fit again.

Son, who was the most strongly favoured alternative to Saka (among those who spend their transfers like water...), also took the night off in Europe this week, so must be considered a doubt for the West Ham match.

Luis Diaz might have some sort of injury too? Slot seems to be very tight-lipped about the condition of his squad, or the reasons for his selections.

Calafiori and Trippier and Doku and Grealish have also apparently picked up problems which may keep them out for - who knows how long?

And we still seem to have no timeline for the return of Alisson or Odegaard or Joao Pedro.

However, it seems as though Danny Welbeck (who looked to have possibly broken a vertebra in last week's match, like Neymar did in the 2014 World Cup; but apparently it was just a 'nasty bruise'), and DeBruyne, Timber, Branthwaite, Minteh, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi, Callum Wilson, Sugawara, Luke Shaw and Sam Johnstone are all 'near' to a possible return this weekend. That is rather a lot of uncertainty to be dealing with - for anyone who owns any of these players (or, more probably, anyone who is interested in acquiring any of them: DeBruyne and Branthwaite, in particular, are likely to be highly desired assets if they regain a regular start and are quickly back to their best.)

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Quite a rash of red cards last week: Saliba, Andersen, Philogene and Ryan Fraser are all serving one-match bans, while Kudus is starting a three-match suspension for 'violent conduct'.

There must now be serious doubts about what the heck is going on between Pep and Phil Foden, after last year's 'Player of the Season' was again left on the bench for most of last week's game against Wolves. And sure, he started in the Champions League this week, and got a goal; but that might be seen as a grudgingly forced selection from Pep, as he was nominally starting on the left flank - filling in for the unavailable Doku and Grealish. And if that's the only position he's likely to play in the Premier League, even if he is now back to regular starts, he's a much less attractive FPL prospect than if he's being allowed to play his favourite, freeer role in the middle. (And I've always felt that he tends to be less productive when DeBruyne is also on the pitch, inevitably allowing the silky veteran to take on the lion's share of the creative duties most of the time.)

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

I daresay this is likely to be an unpopular call, as he's currently the sixth most popular keeper in the game, with very nearly 12% ownership, but.... I've had serious reservations about Robert Sanchez since pre-season. He is absolutely dreadful on the ball, and opposing teams are increasingly targeting him because of that - which unsettles the whole of the defence; and it leads to him often slugging the ball long down the middle when he's put under pressure, and of course these panicky long balls almost invariably get picked up by an opposing player - conceding possession cheaply. This must be particularly vexing for a coach like Maresca who sets such store by his goalkeepers being able to step up between the centre-backs to play a full part in the early build-up. Moreover, although he's very agile for a big bloke and is regularly pulling off spectacular saves, it is becoming increasingly apparent that there are other defects in his game: he really doesn't command his six-yard box or his penalty area very decisively, often fails to claim aerial balls or to rush out quickly towards an opponent getting set to shoot. My mate Adam Clery of FourFourTwo magazine (himself a goalkeeper - only in a Sunday League, I think; but he's knowledgeable and passionate about the craft) just called him out on this in his excellent summation of the Liverpool v Chelsea game... and suggests he's likely to be replaced in the winter window.

Chris Wood, despite claiming the late winner against Palace with a slick strike from just outside the box, actually had a bit of a stinker on Monday night - spurning four or five good chances before finally converting one. I suspect that his 'hot streak' may have just about run its course (and Forest are facing some much tougher fixtures over the next couple of months!).

Many people might also be alarmed that that Forest goal depended on a bit of a howler from Dean Henderson in the Palace goal (saw it early, got down to it smartly,.... somehow forgot to put his arm in the way??), and that, combined with Palace's poor overall form and continuing leakiness in defence, may prompt people to move away from him (and Guehi and any other Palace defenders too!). I had fancied him as one of the most promising 4.5-millon goalkeeper picks at the start of the season, but dropped him when I did my Wildcard reshuffle a few weeks back.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Manchester United were - strangely, unexpectedly?? - rejuvenated by the news that Schoolmaster Erik is going to stay in charge for a while longer; or perhaps just by the return of willing battering-ram Rasmus Hojlund to their front line.... Rashford and Garnacho were suddenly giving hints of getting back to their best too. I wouldn't get too excited too quickly, but... there are perhaps 'green shoots of recovery' starting to appear at Old Trafford.

Buonanotte and Ndiaye continue to impress - now very much in the conversation for those budget picks in midfield and attack. And Jarod Bowen (despite West Ham's extremely indifferent form) might now be putting up some competition to Diaz/Jota/Mbeumo for the mid-price midfielder slot?

And the performance of the week came from.... Curtis Jones; but, unfortunately, he can't be expected to get a regular start at Liverpool. Crying shame, that; he is, for me, looking better than Macallister or Gravenberch; but they are established internationals and expensive signings - so, difficult to drop.

Son Heung-Min had an outstanding game also - but immediately became an injury doubt again.

And of course The Sheep are all rushing to sign Gvardiol and Keane after their wonder-strikes last week.... apparently not realising that defenders only score once-in-a-blue-moon, and only score goals like that (in Michael Keane's case, anyway...) once in a lifetime. City are lookng utterly incapable of keeping a clean sheet at the moment, and I fear Gvardiol might not even be an invariable starter now that his able alternate Nathan Ake is fit again. Everton have been pretty woeful in defence for most of this season, and Keane has often been part of the problem; he surely won't keep his place once Jarrad Branthwaite is available again. So, sorry, Sheep - those are two daft picks. You should not go chasing last week's points!!

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

The UNLUCKIEST team so far?

The chaps over at The Athletic have just done one of their round-table chat videos on the issue of LUCK and how it's impacting the Premier League season so far. [I feel inclined to ask them for a token royalty fee for ripping off my idea...]

Host Joe Devine quizzes their two tactical analysts, JJ Bull and Jon Mackenzie, on some of the leading 'unluckiest team' contenders. They end up agreeing on.... Bournemouth. Which I can kind of see; they've often felt as if they've had games that have slipped away from them by the slenderest of margins; and the disallowing of Dango Ouattara's last-minute winner against Newcastle in Gameweek 2 was certainly one of the most outrageous injustices of the year.

However, the pundits here were mainly relying on Opta's 'expected goals' and 'expected points' stats - which, I feel, are probably of rather dubious value anyway. And, even if you do accept their validity and significance, if you're seriously underperforming these expected attacking numbers, that probably means you're playing badly rather than that you're being unlucky. They also mused on the impact of fixtures quite a bit; but again, for me, that's scareely relevant - it is a different kind of luck. Sure, having a particularly tough run of games - or a particularly easy one, Liverpool! - to start the season is going to have a big impact on your points and league standing; but there is nothing unexpectted, unpredictable about this; as soon as the schedule is announced, you know when the spells are where you're likely to struggle - or to be making hay! - and you have to try to adapt. Apart from the Ouattara disallowed goal, I don't think they gave any consideration to the impact of poor refereeing decisions (which has been the main focus of my 'Luck-o-Meter' series), or to uncommonly superlative goals - or near-misses - swinging the results of games.

And I don't think they even mentioned the two clubs I would nominate as way out ahead in the BAD LUCK Stakes so far: Crystal Palace..... and Chelsea! (The Blues just cannot get a penalty award this season!! They've had good shouts in almost every game so far; sometimes more than one; but they've only been given ONE. It is bizarre,.... outrageous.)

Luck-o-Meter (8)

 

It did feel slightly odd that VAR was having to intervene in a 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity' decision for Saliba's sending-off; we don't see that very often, but I suppose it's part of their remit. And it was absolutely the right decision - uncontested by Arsenal players or manager; the surprise was that Jarred Gillett initially got it wrong. (And is there too much of a grey area about the definition of such 'opportunity'; many might feel that the chance hasn't really crystallized when the attacking player is only 7 or 8 yards inside the opposition half.....)  There was a possible second red-card decision for Raya's foul on Evanilson in the box late in the game. I suppose he got the benefit of the doubt because it looked like an accidental collision rather than a cynical foul; and, in a packed penalty area, the attacker wasn't likely to immediately get a follow-up shooting chance. Even so, we've seen those given....  And it would have been a hard blow for Arsenal to lose their talismanic keeper as well as their best defender for Liverpool's visit next week (and an even harder blow for the astonishing 32.5% of FPL managers who currently own Raya!!). Semenyo's huge miss was the other major piece of 'luck' in that game... along with the unexpected goalscorer in Ryan Christie, finding a sweet finish to a well-worked set-piece routine.

Southampton had a clear penalty mysteriously ignored when Jordan Ayew held on to a player's shirt for several seconds. And since they were still 2-1 up at the time, that would probably have had a material impact on the eventual result of the game. They might also feel a little aggrieved about how much time was added on at the end. Leicester, though, having smashed the post twice and seen Buonanotte come within a whisker of claiming a second goal, will feel that they got the result they deserved. Probably the game's biggest incident in 'luck' terms, though, was Wout Faes almost scoring a spectacular own-goal, and having his blushes spared by a superb save from Hermansen.

A few near-misses (especially Son's thumping shot against the foot of the right-hand post late on), and a few sharp saves, in the Spurs v West Ham game wobbled the needle of the Luck-o-Meter a little. But the major weirdnesses in that game were the unfathomable decision to credit the own goal to Areola (the ball might have deflected off his bum or thigh, but that wasn't a decisive contact: the ball was clearly goalbound already (Diop's own goal at Fulham looked far more as though the deflection off Leno's chest had directed it towards the goal...); I hope the Premier League might yet overturn that plainly bonkers attribution - although it will be too late to affect the FPL points allocations. How 'unlucky' the own goal itself was might be a little more debatable: a quick-fire double ricochet like that always looks very random and impossible to legislate for, but.... the shot was not so powerful that Areola was obliged to make a block with his foot, he probably could have fallen on the ball and gathered it; and when a defender is running back towards his own keeper, he should be alert to the possibility that the ball might get spilled in his direction at speed. So, maybe not 100% a matter of luck, but still pretty unlucky. The half-hearted penalty shout against Udogie for blocking a shot on the goal line was plainly without merit; yes, the ball hit his arm, but his arm was in front of his body. The rare and unusual decision to pull Maddison at half-time - for 'tactical reasons' - was an unexpected blow to his 6.5% of FPL managers. 

Two sendings-off in the game at Craven Cottage is a pretty unusual event (and I thought Philogene's second yellow offence was really a bit soft). And although Emi Martinez has a great record for penalty saves, that too is a very rare occurrence (even rarer, perhaps, that someone takes such a bad penalty that I could have saved it!). The penalty should never have been awarded in the first place, since the ball was headed at Cash from point-blank range, and his arm was in a perfectly 'natural' position - but, as it turned, it made no difference anyway; still, another shockingly bad decision to add to the weekend's rather large tally. And then we get another own-goal in that game too....?  The needle on the meter is definitely twitching strongly this week.

Manchester United of course feel it was unlucky - though scarcely unjust ('dried blood' isn't bright red, Erik) - that De Ligt had to keep getting treatment for a gushing wound on top of his head, which led to them being a man short when Pinnock headed Brentford in front from a corner just before the break; but dreadful defending of the set-piece from Dalot and Casemiro was the more immediate cause there.

Everton set out on the path to victory with a wonder-goal from..... Michael Keane??!!  What universe are we living in???  The Ipswich penalty appeal for the clash between Clarke and McNeil, overturned after a second look suggested by VAR, was, I think, rightly denied. But it's still a bit of a concern to me that the referee is under so much pressure to reverse his original decision when such a pitchside review is directed. (And I suspect PGMOL have surreptitiously tweaked something in their protocols about this, because we suddenly saw four or five of these recommendations in one weekend, after having hardly any in previous gameweeks.)

It's always a bit of a turn-up when Newcastle lose at home (first time in 11 games?!), and they did absolutely dominate this game - except for falling asleep a little on a breakaway from a quick free-kick. And they absolutely should have had a penalty for Veltman handling the ball on the ground on the edge of the box early in the game. (VAR didn't even 'look' at that one???)

Two goals from defenders nicked the win for City, in a game where they scarcely deserved a point. And good grief, how did Savinho escape a booking for a cynical (and utterly needless, when there were a gaggle of his teammates closing in on the breakaway attacker) foul on the half-way line??

VAR again played a prominent role in the Anfield game, sometimes by omission: I'm not saying Tosin should have gone off for his early foul on Jota, but we want some consistency in the officiating. This situation was identical to the Saliba sending-off the day before, where VAR's response was to advise the referee to take a second look at the incident. How can they change their procedure within 24 hours?? The ref - and VAR! - also missed an obvious penalty for Chelsea shortly afterwards, when Trent Alexander-Arnold stamped on Sancho's foot. (Chelsea really seem cursed in this respect at the moment: they seem to have cast-iron penalties ignored almost every week; it's really hurting Palmer's points tally.)  But fortunes were perhaps balanced out by Salah's appeal also being turned down later. Although that one was a much weaker case: although Colvill's rushing towards the back of Salah was clumsy, there was minimal contact, and Salah rather lost himself the shout by going down way too easily. The penalty award for Curtis Jones was perhaps a little bit soft: one of those where, if the referee hadn't called it, I doubt if VAR would have seen enough in it to query the on-field decision. At least VAR correctly overturned the referee's penalty award against Sancho and the disallowing of Jackson's goal (although the latter seemed to take a very long time....).

I didn't see any refereeing howlers in the Monday night game - but the EPL's very brief official highlights video would probably have expunged them. Palace again looked a bit unlucky, with both Eze and Nketiah hitting the woodwork with powerful long-range efforts, and Sels keeping the home side in the game with a string of fine saves (while Dean Henderson was horribly at fault for Wood's late winner).

It was curious that, in a close game, Sels claimed the maximum bonus points - while matchwinner Wood only earned a solitary extra point. Many FPL managers were also shocked that Salah - who the game's 'Bonus Points System' strangely hates - despite registering a goal and an assist in a 2-1 win, was only awarded 2 bonus points rather than 3. While Curtis Jones did indeed have an outstanding game, it seemed implausible - in a system that so massively rewards goals and assists - that he could have out-pointed Salah so heavily. There was similar weirdness elsewhere, with Senesi rather than Kluivert picking up the 3-point bonus in the Bournemouth game, and Bissouma rather than Son getting the top points at Spurs. I know BPS has advertised some revisions to the points allocations for various game actions this season, but they wouldn't explain such a big change in the kind of players now benefitting from the extra points; one suspects there must also have been some radical - unannounced - shift in the way certain game actions are being defined and counted. As if that surreptitious tweaking of the system weren't bad enough, we've also witnessed some overt manipulation of the BPS scores, long after the final whistle. The most egregious example was Saka in Gameweek 6, whose improbably huge BPS total was surreptitiously revised downwards after the game so that he'd only receive 1 bonus point rather than 3. Something similar seems to have gone on this week with the Liverpool game (although it didn't actually affect the final bonus points this time.... so, why bother?): Salah's BPS score was bumped up by 5 or 6, to make it look a bit more respectable, while one of his teammates' (Trent's, I think) was swingeingly reduced. Originally, Salah had only been one BPS credit away from getting just 1 bonus point - which surely would have caused global rioting.

Son also missed out on an additional 3 points (and probably increased bonus points too) - because the League took ages to decide that he deserved an assist for the West Ham own goal....

Omissions from starting line-ups like Fernandez, Macallister, and Diaz (though not entirely unexpected, given how far they'd had to travel for the internationals) also weigh in the 'luck' scales slightly. Sa's unexpected stepping in for Johnstone, and Foden's being left on the bench also caused a lot of ripples in the world of FPL (the latter especially so!).

Bournemouth's convincing win over Arsenal was the only big upset of the weekend; although Brighton's victory over Newcastle and Everton's over Ipswich were also perhaps slightly unexpected; and we nearly saw Chelsea beating Liverpool and Wolves beating City....

It was another week where most of the big names failed to produce anything: Salah, Son, and, I suppose, Gvardiol were the only high-owned players to feature in the 'Team of the Week'.

It wasn't nearly such a 'lucky' week as some we have seen this season. But the improbability of Michael Keane's goal feels like it should be worth an extra point or two on my 'Luck' scale all on its own!! And the welter of close calls (even if ultimately not wrong; although at least one of them was...) in the top-of-the-table clash at Anfield makes a big contribution to my final rating too. I'm going to give this gameweek a 5 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.