GW10 - What did we learn?

 

Great to see Newcastle finally starting to click again, especially in defence, with Lewis Hall doing a pretty good job of minimizing Saka's threat (nice to see an unusually articulate, as well as humble, post-match interview - in which he gave full credit to Willock and Joelinton for substantially helping out with that mission). Eddie Howe will no doubt be particularly pleased with his boys' 'intensity' numbers, massively dominating Arsenal on sprints, duels, etc., despite being slightly behind on scoring chances and xG, nearly two-to-one down on overall possession. And Gordon and Isak are starting to look back to their best (which is very, very good indeed: people who'd had them in their FPL squads from early in the season probably should have kept faith a bit longer, rather than transferring them out in the past few weeks... only to now want them back!). Howe, perhaps, often doesn't get enough credit for his tactical acuity; but he really did a number on Arteta here. Arsenal, of course, are having their struggles with injuries - particularly in defence, where they've rarely, if ever, been able to start their first-choice back-four (indeed, there's still probably some doubt about what that first choice line-up is - would it be Timber or Calafiori at left-back? doesn't matter that much when they're both injured all the time....); but this has been an entirely expected problem since the start of the season, when they had a really disastrous transfer window, losing just about all of their existing back-up players, while failing to land any of their big-name targets... apart from the fragile Calafiori (who doesn't seem to be an automatically favoured starter, even when he's fit). After that, it was just about inconceivable - absent some huge slices of good luck -  that they could replicate their close title challenge of last season.

While I fondly remember the Brian Clough glory days from my childhood, and am thus happy to see Forest back in the top flight;.... them being third in the table after Saturday's games does seem somewhat unbelievable, a Bizarro Universe moment. Sorry, Forest fans, but I really can't see this lasting - especially with the fixture-run you've now got until Christmas. But... I've also been feeling this way for the past month or more about Chris Wood's astonishing run of goal-scoring form... and yet the big lug somehow keeps popping up for another one every bloody week! The big dilemma for Lopategui now may be what to do with Morgan Gibbs-White. He has been inspirational for the Forest for the past two years, their major creative force. But that is perhaps becoming less the case now that the advanced full-backs, Moreno and Aina, are establishing themselves as a main creative channel to Wood, and the wide attackers Hudson-Odoi and Elanga are also looking regularly dangerous. Gibbs-White's preference for playing far up the field often leaves them a bit light in the centre of midfield, and Forest have actually looked a lot more cohesive with Elliot Anderson playing in there for the past few games. It would be nice to find a way of playing both of them, but that's quite a challenge. And West Ham really didn't look miles off it here; but for Alvarez getting himself sent off for two silly fouls, they might have been able to make more of a fight of this; Bowen, at least, was again looking very sharp.

The gods obviously do not love Ipswich, who had three points snatched away from them by a pair of diabolical refereeing decisions (and VAR non-decisions), for the penalty and the sending-off of Phillips, late in the game (although Phillips was lucky not to have been sent off already, for an unnecessarily combative display). Leicester's late equaliser from Ayew was a very well-worked goal; but the opportunity would probably not have occurred if their opponents had still been at full strength; and Muric - although, for the first time in a few weeks, he managed not to stink the place up with his performance this time - should perhaps have stopped it. Leicester, apart from the class of Buonanotte (OK, and Hermansen in goal...), really don't seem to have very much going for them at all. I'd still take Ipswich to finish above them, though both might well end in the bottom three. Sorry, Ipswich fans - that partial vote-of-confidence will probably jinx them even more.

Injury-disrupted City continue to misfire; and when Foden is as largely ineffective as here, you can start to understand why Pep seems so reluctant to start him regularly - something has broken down here, in the relationship between the two, I suppose (or maybe Phil's just suffered a slump in confidence, after his frustrating Euros... following on from a year of being repeatedly outshone by Cole Palmer....? [He was only 'Player of the Season' because he put in the flashiest displays for the title-winning club; everyone realises Rodri was more crucial to City's success, and Palmer was way the most important creative player in the league last year.]). Bournemouth, after their very shakey start to the season, really seem to be getting their shit together now; they were magnificent in defence (Kerkez likely to be the most-transferred-in player this week! maybe Travers also, if people are willing to gamble that he's playing well enough to keep the start ahead of Kepa), and well worth the three points. Some good work from Ederson - particularly the double-save to thwart that early three-on-one break - kept City in the game; if one or two of those attempts had sneaked in, or Tavernier's sweet curler that beat Ederson but slammed against the foot of the post, then their victory would have looked much more comfortable. City deserve credit for their determination in mounting a dangerous late surge (can't help thinking that they looked considerably more dangerous in the attacking third once Rico Lewis had come on; that can't bode well for anyone who's gambled on Walker getting a run of starts again....); but if they had scrambled an equaliser, it would have seemed unjust; Bournemouth were way the better side here. Gvardiol owners are enjoying further momments of smugness after yet another outstanding goal; but, although this form is shaking my confidence in my initial assessment slightly, I still stand by the view that he can't maintain this level of attacking producitivity all season, and hence, City's poor defensive record and the inevitable minutes-risk (even if he doesn't lose Pep's favuor at some point, he's surely bound to be rested quite a bit during the latter stages of the Champions League...) make him very dubious value for a 6-million-pound asking price. Evanilson is probably getting on people's radar as (yet another) cheap forward option now; whilst the disillusionment with Haaland reaches lemming-like intensity.

Such a pity that Brighton could not convert their first-half dominance into a decisive margin at Anfield! You have to give credit to Slot for revitalizing his team at half-time (his in-game management, tweaking tactics and personnel, or just getting the lads fired up to show a bit more determination, really seems to be top-level); but I question how far the initial selection was to blame for their drab first-half showing. Many FPL folks now seem to be convinced that Nunez and Gakpo will be, should be, the preferred starters in centre and left attack; but Diaz and Jota, apart from being better finishers, are just so much more incisive in the press. Kadioglu is another player likely to get The Sheep excited, after his stunning goal (although he followed that up with a stunning miss, so I'm not getting too carried away...); but while Brighton keep on leaking goals so easily, you have to be wary of any of their assets, especially in defence. Verbruggen, Ayari, and Rutter appeal to me a lot more, anyway; and Welbeck, of course, who appears to be enjoying a splendid 'Indian summer' to his career. And if Konate has broken his wrist, I suppose Gomez - rather than Quansah - is due to get a run of starts. It will be interesting to see how that affects Liverpool's form; Gomez has never really convinced me - he has great qualities on the ball, going forward, but always looks very error-prone in the defensive third, especially when playing at centre-back. (And he costs 4.8 million anyway??  I suppose people might see him as a good replacement for Konate, if Liverpool can keep their good defensive record going. But Konate has been the prime component of that defensive record, so that's quite an IF.....)

Southampton finally got a deserved win, one that's been a long time coming - although this was the one game of the weekend where there were a couple of dodgy refereeing calls which may have skewed the match outcome. Overall, though, Everton looked a bit flat in this one, and Southampton were much more fluent in moving the ball forward. They're increasingly looking to me like the promoted side most likely to survive - although they have got a bit of a mountain to climb after their miserable start. While I think Palace and Wolves have too much quality to remain down the bottom end for too long, Everton and Leicester look very likely to be in the relegation battle all season.

Palace, despite missing most of their regular midfield, actually didn't look at all bad; but both they and their hosts Wolves are still much better going forward than they are defending. Cunha's bright form is the main encouragement for Wolves's fans; but for FPL purposes, since he's playing as a fairly deep support striker most of the time, he is rarely likely to claim goals of his own, only provide assists for others; Strand Larsen probably looks the better prospect for a forward pick from the club.

Spurs v Villa looked very much like a battle of upper mid-table sides, both of them miles off their best, at least in the first half; Villa were barely worth their early lead, nicked in a goalmouth scramble. Ange must have put some amphetamines in the half-time cuppa, because Spurs were completely transformed when they came out again after the break. There are still concerning signs for both teams, though: Villa looked very, very flat, and Ollie Watkins has (only temporarily, I'm sure) mislaid his scoring boots. FPL managers must be alarmed about Ange's selection and tactics, apparently no longer regarding Maddison as an essential starter, and feeling able to pull Son off only 10 minutes into the second half (was he still concerned about his recovery from the thigh muscle injury?). And although Vicario is stiiving to be a bit more assertive at set-pieces, he is so far achieving only very modest success with this. 

The Sheep are now bleating after Dominic Solanke, who did have an excellent game here; but his first goal looked offside (if only very narrowly; and there was something odd going on with the VAR here, as the call was apparently 'too close' for them to draw in their customary lines on the screen?!), and his second was put on a plate for him by a staggeringly unselfish square ball from Richarlison. The problem remains for Solanke that he's often dropping quite deep in his link-up play, and not getting into goalscoring positions as much as you'd like from a primary goalscorer; even if that changes, Spurs just haven't been very consistent so far this season; and even if that changes, Solanke's probably going to have to share the goals with Son and Johnson, and a few others - all of which make him, for me, decidedly not a very attractive prospect in FPL. (But.... two goals?! Just watch: he'll be the most transferred-in player this week!!)  There's also a chorus of bleats, of course, about Morgan Rogers, who picked up another goal here. I remain unimpressed, as this was so untypical of his usual play, or indeed of Villa's usual play: he was only in the middle of the six-yard box because they were trying out a special set-piece routine to exploit Vicario's notorious bully-ability in these situations. It doesn't seem likely that we'll find him in those sorts of positions, or scoring those sorts of goals very often - maybe ever again.

The game at Old Trafford was a frustrating, and sometimes ill-tempered affair. It might have caught fire if one of several missed chances had gone in, but there was nothing much to get excited about, apart from Caicedo's excellent drive from the edge of the box to secure a share of the points. Palmer, I thought, had an absolutely outstanding game (as did the central double-pivot of Caicedo and Lavia), but most of his teammates were strangely lacklustre here; Neto and Madueke failed to get involved in the game very much at all. The post-Ten Hag United played with a little more spirit, but not much incisiveness; no real sign of a 'new manager bounce' for van Nistelrooy here.

I couldn't figure out much about the Fulham v Brentford game from very brief highlights on Youtube, but the match reports indicate it was another case of Brentford having nothing much in the attacking locker apart from their high-tempo starts and occasional set-piece routines. At least they showed a bit more defensive solidity than they often have, soaking up Fulham's pressure until added-on time (Flekken once again racking up a lot of 'saves' points, but once again failing to keep a clean sheet; it is somewhat bizarre that such a poor keeper, in such a poor defensive team, should actually be doing reasonably well in the goalkeeper rankings, just because of the huge number of stops he's required to make in every game...).  Fulham's patience and discipline was ultimately rewarded; and I think Robinson and Tete, although they've been pretty quiet so far, are starting to look like tempting defensive options for FPL.