How's it going SO FAR?

 

Since we're just about a quarter of the way through the season, this seems like an appropriate point to pause and assess our progress so far.

As I noted right at the start of the season, a bad start can scupper your chances for the year. Being quick out of the blocks is pretty much essential to a high ranking at the end of the season - or, certainly, gives you a HUGE advantage in chasing that dream. Picking the first squad is a real lottery. After even a few weeks, we start to get a pretty good sense of who the players (and teams) in the best form are, and we can narrow down the pool of potential picks quite dramatically. But in that opening week, no-one really has any idea; we're all just making hopeful guesses. And if you happen to have an outstanding Gameweek 1, chances are you'll continue to do pretty well in Gameweeks 2 and 3 as well, since you've guessed correctly on who the majority of the most productive players in the opening phase of the season are going to be; and you won't have to worry about using up transfers, perhaps even resorting to an early Wildcard, to fix problems in your squad, which is an enormous additional advantage. So, a strong Gameweek 1 can leave you galloping off gleefully into the distance, with an intimidating lead over the chasing pack right from the outset; a lead which is very likely to get even bigger over the next few weeks, because that opening advantage will continue for a while and compound itself. The rest of us, the unfortunate ones who didn't make such successful guesses, are not playing catch-up..... we're just desperately trying to stop falling even further behind as soon as possible.

I tend to have very weak starts to the season. In fact, I've had two or three really AWFUL ones (last year was a particularly egregious disaster, which I might share some details of on this blog one day); so, this year doesn't feel so bad by comparison. (A sense of perspective can be a great comfort in times of trouble.)

I was pretty happy with my squad: it looked strong and well-balanced. And most of the players I'd picked would come good soon. But, unfortunately, almost none of them picked up anything in that first week. And I'd put my captain's armband on Isak rather than Salah. And I didn't have Haaland (although that wasn't yet such a calamity as it was about to become). So, I kicked off my season a few points below the global average, and outside (just) the top 50%. Horrendous.

Going without Haaland was a risky though viable strategy. But then the bugger went and got back-to-back hattricks in the next two weeks (which was hardly to be 'expected'; City had started sluggishly, with Rodri recovering from a muscle injury sustained at the Euros; and West Ham had looked as if they should be a decent mid-table side, while Ipswich seemed likely to be the best of the promoted sides, and had given a very good account of themselves at Anfield in GW1). Some folks even punted their Triple Captain chip on him in one of those weeks! So, those of us who'd bet on the non-Haaland option were irrevocably screwed by the end of August.

I'd decided to steer away from Arsenal attacking assets too, being doubtful that they could build on last season's success after a disappointing summer transfer window, and an early spate of injuries. But Saka and Havertz both had an excellent opening week (and, although Havertz soon faded a little, Saka continued strong until he picked up a short-term injury in GW7). That choice also harmed me in the early part of the season.

I'd also failed to anticipate that Chris Wood and Danny Welbeck would start the season so strongly. (Come on; did anyone anticipate that??)  And I remained hesitant to bring either of them in, since I always had other pressing issues to use my transfers on; and their advanced age, poor injury history, and record of never keeping a hot scoring streak going very long, all suggested that their early-season form was likely to be a flash-in-the-pan (every week I've thought that; and every week, they keep banging them in!). If my crystal ball had told me that so many (virtually all!) of the cheaper forward options would start the season so strongly, I probably wouldn't have bothered to go with Watkins and Isak as my strike force, and could have saved a bit of money for elsewhere in the squad. Watkins had some kind of fitness issue at the start of the season, failed to have much of an impact in the first few games, and kept getting subbed off perilously not-far-past the hour mark; but he has finally started to come good with 5 goals (and 2 assists) since then. I still have concerns about him, though, as I've found Villa's form a bit unconvincing so far (it seems as if they're saving their best efforts for their debut Champsions League campaign). Isak also seemed to be impaired by a slight fitness issue at first; and then broke a toe. And for my cheap back-up, I'd gone for Muniz at Fulham - who struggled to regain his excellent form from the end of last season, and was rather hastily dropped in favour of Raul Jimenez - yet another 'old warhorse' improbably recapturing his best form after years in the doldrums. Watkins, Isak, and Muniz had looked like a very strong attacking trio before the start of the season - but none of them came through for me.

I'm pleased that I was on Salah and Palmer (and Mbeumo and Smith Rowe) from the outset, who have been paying off quite nicely. I also got on Robinson and Lewis, and Davis and Delap quite early; although they haven't yet brought huge rewards, I am at present fairly content that they look like smart and prescient picks that may do quite well for me. Alas, I keep guessing wrong most of the time with my captaincy picks: only Super-Mo, in GWs 2 and 3, has given me a decent return on the armband so far.

I had been thinking that this season hadn't been too bad for injuries, really (at least, not compared to the record-breaking number I suffered last year!); but on reviewing my transfer record so far, I am reminded that I lost Ben White - my premium defensive pick - almost immediately to a knee problem; also Mykolenko. And when Luis Diaz started getting left out in favour of Cody Gakpo, I brought in Dwight McNeil, who immediately got injured. I also gave Eddie Nketiah a try; he started brightly at Palace, but quickly faded... and then got injured.

Other strokes of ill-fortune I suffered in my early selections included: punting on Valentin Barco as an 'investment pick' at the start of the season (he had been widely expected to start the first two or three games, as there were so many injuries elsewhere in the Brighton defence; but instead he was suddenly packed off to Spain on loan [at least his price was - unexpectedly* - frozen, so I didn't have to worry about getting rid of him immediately; but I did as soon as possible, because I didn't want to risk having an empty seat on the bench for long]); going for Henderson and Munoz, but finding that they and Palace were in flakey form at the start of the season, and deciding I needed to offload them quite quickly; then going for Areola (a mainstay of mine for most of last season) to replace Henderson, and have him promptly suffer two minor injuries... and then lose his place. And I've had Bowen for a while - who's played really, really well,... without actually producing many points so far.  Oh, and I brought in Haaland on an early Wildcard... and his goals immediately dried up. (Hope springing eternal.... I just made him captain against Southampton - while three of my midfielders returned much better points. Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear.)

At least.... starting from such a low point, I was easily able to maintain 'green arrows' of upward progress through the next five gameweeks. But then, I hit a couple of disastrous returns in GWs 7 and 8 (just wretched luck: very good teams put out, but almost no-one returned anything!). My only 'good' week so far was GW6, where Palmer's monster haul helped me to get 18 points above the global average (many people didn't yet have him??); but even there, I'd failed to make him my captain. Oh, woe!

So,  NO, my personal 'Report Card' is not showing A+ at the moment; more like C- !!!  Just about everything that could go wrong has gone wrong for me so far. But.... things can only get better...!!  Right?

* That Barco thing was very weird. I've never noticed a player being kept in the game, but have his price frozen before. Usually, when players get loaned overseas, they're removed from the player roster altogether. Although it would actually make more sense to retain them, but leave their price subject to change. Loan agreements typically have a clause providing for a player's peremptory recall, if the parent club feels it might need him after all - particularly if they're hit with a bit of a mid-season injury crisis. And it would actually be rather fun to occasionally have the opportunity to bring in a recalled loan player like this, whose price might have dropped well below 4.0 during his absence.