Always worth it to fill a points-hole

 

Many FPL managers seem to have a rigid superstition against taking 'hits' (paying points for an additional transfer), EVER. That is ridiculous and self-harming.

The architects of the game have shrewdly priced a 'hit' at 4 points (in some other Fantasy games, it's only 3 points!) - just enough to dissuade you from using them frivolously!

But you should expect to make on average at least 5 points per match from each member of your starting eleven. Of course, you may sometimes come up shy of that. And the returns are never evenly distributed: your keeper and defenders rarely get much more than 3 or 4 points, but you're hoping a few of your star midfielders or forwards might often chip in 8 or 10 points.

Nevertheless, it is a very modest gamble to spend 4 points filling a gap in your starting eleven. You should have a very good chance of making that back, even with a defensive player [UPDATE: that chance has probably been significantly improved in the 25/26 season with the introduction of additional 'defensive points']; you're risking usually no more than a 1 or 2 point loss, against the chance that they might show a 'profit' if they manage to keep a clean sheet or produce an attacking return. For an attacking player, the odds in your favour are much stronger - or a least, the 'upside', the points 'profit' you could make from a good return is likely to be far higher.

If the player you're replacing is likely to be out for a while, you'll get further value from your new transfer across subsequent weeks, which is a small further offset to the initial points-spend on him.

And if you defer making this needful change until the following week, you could just be storing up further trouble for yourself: you might get hit with another injury, and still have to spend the points to get back up to full strength.

Moreover, it you have a hole in your starting eleven, this implies that you've already emptied your bench; so, you're really in a major crisis - sooner or later, you're going to have to take the 'hits' to get things back on track: it might as well be sooner.

Purely elective transfers, swapping out a starter just because you fancy another player more - that's a whole different story. They are ALMOST NEVER worth spending a 'hit' on.

I honestly don't think I've ever found myself in the situation of even being tempted by it - because I don't hang on to players that I'm starting to hate, or fail to bring in players who are starting to show hot form. I can't see how someone finds themselves in a situation where they have a player who is so bad, and they covet a transfer who is so good, that that they can be really confident that the coveted transfer will outscore the despised incumbent by MORE THAN 4 POINTS. I mean, HOW is that possible???

An incumbent player in your team who is at least a starter is almost guaranteed to get a minimum of 2 points, and might well get more. So, the proposed transfer has to score at least 7 points to be worthwhile. That is very, very unlikely. There may be extreme cases - really hot player, really good fixture; and you see further value from him (over the guy you're desperate to dump) in the following run of games too - but that's going to be a rare, rare event; and even then, it's a risk.

To sum up, spending points to plug a hole in your starting eleven is ALWAYS worth the gamble.

Spending points just because the grass looks greener is ALMOST NEVER worth it.