The UNLUCKIEST team so far?

The chaps over at The Athletic have just done one of their round-table chat videos on the issue of LUCK and how it's impacting the Premier League season so far. [I feel inclined to ask them for a token royalty fee for ripping off my idea...]

Host Joe Devine quizzes their two tactical analysts, JJ Bull and Jon Mackenzie, on some of the leading 'unluckiest team' contenders. They end up agreeing on.... Bournemouth. Which I can kind of see; they've often felt as if they've had games that have slipped away from them by the slenderest of margins; and the disallowing of Dango Ouattara's last-minute winner against Newcastle in Gameweek 2 was certainly one of the most outrageous injustices of the year.

However, the pundits here were mainly relying on Opta's 'expected goals' and 'expected points' stats - which, I feel, are probably of rather dubious value anyway. And, even if you do accept their validity and significance, if you're seriously underperforming these expected attacking numbers, that probably means you're playing badly rather than that you're being unlucky. They also mused on the impact of fixtures quite a bit; but again, for me, that's scareely relevant - it is a different kind of luck. Sure, having a particularly tough run of games - or a particularly easy one, Liverpool! - to start the season is going to have a big impact on your points and league standing; but there is nothing unexpectted, unpredictable about this; as soon as the schedule is announced, you know when the spells are where you're likely to struggle - or to be making hay! - and you have to try to adapt. Apart from the Ouattara disallowed goal, I don't think they gave any consideration to the impact of poor refereeing decisions (which has been the main focus of my 'Luck-o-Meter' series), or to uncommonly superlative goals - or near-misses - swinging the results of games.

And I don't think they even mentioned the two clubs I would nominate as way out ahead in the BAD LUCK Stakes so far: Crystal Palace..... and Chelsea! (The Blues just cannot get a penalty award this season!! They've had good shouts in almost every game so far; sometimes more than one; but they've only been given ONE. It is bizarre,.... outrageous.)