Luck-o-Meter (8)

 

It did feel slightly odd that VAR was having to intervene in a 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity' decision for Saliba's sending-off; we don't see that very often, but I suppose it's part of their remit. And it was absolutely the right decision - uncontested by Arsenal players or manager; the surprise was that Jarred Gillett initially got it wrong. (And is there too much of a grey area about the definition of such 'opportunity'; many might feel that the chance hasn't really crystallized when the attacking player is only 7 or 8 yards inside the opposition half.....)  There was a possible second red-card decision for Raya's foul on Evanilson in the box late in the game. I suppose he got the benefit of the doubt because it looked like an accidental collision rather than a cynical foul; and, in a packed penalty area, the attacker wasn't likely to immediately get a follow-up shooting chance. Even so, we've seen those given....  And it would have been a hard blow for Arsenal to lose their talismanic keeper as well as their best defender for Liverpool's visit next week (and an even harder blow for the astonishing 32.5% of FPL managers who currently own Raya!!). Semenyo's huge miss was the other major piece of 'luck' in that game... along with the unexpected goalscorer in Ryan Christie, finding a sweet finish to a well-worked set-piece routine.

Southampton had a clear penalty mysteriously ignored when Jordan Ayew held on to a player's shirt for several seconds. And since they were still 2-1 up at the time, that would probably have had a material impact on the eventual result of the game. They might also feel a little aggrieved about how much time was added on at the end. Leicester, though, having smashed the post twice and seen Buonanotte come within a whisker of claiming a second goal, will feel that they got the result they deserved. Probably the game's biggest incident in 'luck' terms, though, was Wout Faes almost scoring a spectacular own-goal, and having his blushes spared by a superb save from Hermansen.

A few near-misses (especially Son's thumping shot against the foot of the right-hand post late on), and a few sharp saves, in the Spurs v West Ham game wobbled the needle of the Luck-o-Meter a little. But the major weirdnesses in that game were the unfathomable decision to credit the own goal to Areola (the ball might have deflected off his bum or thigh, but that wasn't a decisive contact: the ball was clearly goalbound already (Diop's own goal at Fulham looked far more as though the deflection off Leno's chest had directed it towards the goal...); I hope the Premier League might yet overturn that plainly bonkers attribution - although it will be too late to affect the FPL points allocations. How 'unlucky' the own goal itself was might be a little more debatable: a quick-fire double ricochet like that always looks very random and impossible to legislate for, but.... the shot was not so powerful that Areola was obliged to make a block with his foot, he probably could have fallen on the ball and gathered it; and when a defender is running back towards his own keeper, he should be alert to the possibility that the ball might get spilled in his direction at speed. So, maybe not 100% a matter of luck, but still pretty unlucky. The half-hearted penalty shout against Udogie for blocking a shot on the goal line was plainly without merit; yes, the ball hit his arm, but his arm was in front of his body. The rare and unusual decision to pull Maddison at half-time - for 'tactical reasons' - was an unexpected blow to his 6.5% of FPL managers. 

Two sendings-off in the game at Craven Cottage is a pretty unusual event (and I thought Philogene's second yellow offence was really a bit soft). And although Emi Martinez has a great record for penalty saves, that too is a very rare occurrence (even rarer, perhaps, that someone takes such a bad penalty that I could have saved it!). The penalty should never have been awarded in the first place, since the ball was headed at Cash from point-blank range, and his arm was in a perfectly 'natural' position - but, as it turned, it made no difference anyway; still, another shockingly bad decision to add to the weekend's rather large tally. And then we get another own-goal in that game too....?  The needle on the meter is definitely twitching strongly this week.

Manchester United of course feel it was unlucky - though scarcely unjust ('dried blood' isn't bright red, Erik) - that De Ligt had to keep getting treatment for a gushing wound on top of his head, which led to them being a man short when Pinnock headed Brentford in front from a corner just before the break; but dreadful defending of the set-piece from Dalot and Casemiro was the more immediate cause there.

Everton set out on the path to victory with a wonder-goal from..... Michael Keane??!!  What universe are we living in???  The Ipswich penalty appeal for the clash between Clarke and McNeil, overturned after a second look suggested by VAR, was, I think, rightly denied. But it's still a bit of a concern to me that the referee is under so much pressure to reverse his original decision when such a pitchside review is directed. (And I suspect PGMOL have surreptitiously tweaked something in their protocols about this, because we suddenly saw four or five of these recommendations in one weekend, after having hardly any in previous gameweeks.)

It's always a bit of a turn-up when Newcastle lose at home (first time in 11 games?!), and they did absolutely dominate this game - except for falling asleep a little on a breakaway from a quick free-kick. And they absolutely should have had a penalty for Veltman handling the ball on the ground on the edge of the box early in the game. (VAR didn't even 'look' at that one???)

Two goals from defenders nicked the win for City, in a game where they scarcely deserved a point. And good grief, how did Savinho escape a booking for a cynical (and utterly needless, when there were a gaggle of his teammates closing in on the breakaway attacker) foul on the half-way line??

VAR again played a prominent role in the Anfield game, sometimes by omission: I'm not saying Tosin should have gone off for his early foul on Jota, but we want some consistency in the officiating. This situation was identical to the Saliba sending-off the day before, where VAR's response was to advise the referee to take a second look at the incident. How can they change their procedure within 24 hours?? The ref - and VAR! - also missed an obvious penalty for Chelsea shortly afterwards, when Trent Alexander-Arnold stamped on Sancho's foot. (Chelsea really seem cursed in this respect at the moment: they seem to have cast-iron penalties ignored almost every week; it's really hurting Palmer's points tally.)  But fortunes were perhaps balanced out by Salah's appeal also being turned down later. Although that one was a much weaker case: although Colvill's rushing towards the back of Salah was clumsy, there was minimal contact, and Salah rather lost himself the shout by going down way too easily. The penalty award for Curtis Jones was perhaps a little bit soft: one of those where, if the referee hadn't called it, I doubt if VAR would have seen enough in it to query the on-field decision. At least VAR correctly overturned the referee's penalty award against Sancho and the disallowing of Jackson's goal (although the latter seemed to take a very long time....).

I didn't see any refereeing howlers in the Monday night game - but the EPL's very brief official highlights video would probably have expunged them. Palace again looked a bit unlucky, with both Eze and Nketiah hitting the woodwork with powerful long-range efforts, and Sels keeping the home side in the game with a string of fine saves (while Dean Henderson was horribly at fault for Wood's late winner).

It was curious that, in a close game, Sels claimed the maximum bonus points - while matchwinner Wood only earned a solitary extra point. Many FPL managers were also shocked that Salah - who the game's 'Bonus Points System' strangely hates - despite registering a goal and an assist in a 2-1 win, was only awarded 2 bonus points rather than 3. While Curtis Jones did indeed have an outstanding game, it seemed implausible - in a system that so massively rewards goals and assists - that he could have out-pointed Salah so heavily. There was similar weirdness elsewhere, with Senesi rather than Kluivert picking up the 3-point bonus in the Bournemouth game, and Bissouma rather than Son getting the top points at Spurs. I know BPS has advertised some revisions to the points allocations for various game actions this season, but they wouldn't explain such a big change in the kind of players now benefitting from the extra points; one suspects there must also have been some radical - unannounced - shift in the way certain game actions are being defined and counted. As if that surreptitious tweaking of the system weren't bad enough, we've also witnessed some overt manipulation of the BPS scores, long after the final whistle. The most egregious example was Saka in Gameweek 6, whose improbably huge BPS total was surreptitiously revised downwards after the game so that he'd only receive 1 bonus point rather than 3. Something similar seems to have gone on this week with the Liverpool game (although it didn't actually affect the final bonus points this time.... so, why bother?): Salah's BPS score was bumped up by 5 or 6, to make it look a bit more respectable, while one of his teammates' (Trent's, I think) was swingeingly reduced. Originally, Salah had only been one BPS credit away from getting just 1 bonus point - which surely would have caused global rioting.

Son also missed out on an additional 3 points (and probably increased bonus points too) - because the League took ages to decide that he deserved an assist for the West Ham own goal....

Omissions from starting line-ups like Fernandez, Macallister, and Diaz (though not entirely unexpected, given how far they'd had to travel for the internationals) also weigh in the 'luck' scales slightly. Sa's unexpected stepping in for Johnstone, and Foden's being left on the bench also caused a lot of ripples in the world of FPL (the latter especially so!).

Bournemouth's convincing win over Arsenal was the only big upset of the weekend; although Brighton's victory over Newcastle and Everton's over Ipswich were also perhaps slightly unexpected; and we nearly saw Chelsea beating Liverpool and Wolves beating City....

It was another week where most of the big names failed to produce anything: Salah, Son, and, I suppose, Gvardiol were the only high-owned players to feature in the 'Team of the Week'.

It wasn't nearly such a 'lucky' week as some we have seen this season. But the improbability of Michael Keane's goal feels like it should be worth an extra point or two on my 'Luck' scale all on its own!! And the welter of close calls (even if ultimately not wrong; although at least one of them was...) in the top-of-the-table clash at Anfield makes a big contribution to my final rating too. I'm going to give this gameweek a 5 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.