Monday, October 21, 2024

GW8 - What did we learn?

Referee Jarred Gillett showing Arsenal's William Saliba a straight red card for the 'denial of a goal-scoring opportunity' in the first half of the game at Bournemouth on Saturday 19th October, 2024.

Spurs were perhaps a little fortunate to benefit from two astonishingly precise and powerful shots shaving the inside of the post.... and one of the most bizarre and unfortunate own-goals we might see all season. And Areola - who had a pretty good game overall, pulling off one save (from Porro's heavily deflected shot) that was near-miraculous - was particularly abused by that scoreline (and by the bizarre decision to credit the o.g. to him rather than Todibo!); he's a good goalkeeper pick, and owned by nearly 7% of FPL managers - it was a wretched day for them. Son's looking sharp and hungry again, smashing a post as well as claiming a goal and an assist; his high-price, and his notorious inconsistency of returns, make him a big conundrum in FPL - but when he's in this kind of form, he's hard to ignore. Maddison's owners probably shouldn't panic - yet - about his 'tactical' withdrawal at half-time; but it is a cause of concern (at least he contributed an assist while he was on the pitch). And Kudus's three-match suspension for pushing two Spurs players in the face will put a big dent in anyone's confidence about West Ham's prospects (that, along with their generally tepid performance here; Lopategui still hasn't got them playing, not with any consistency or cohesion). Although it was an entertaining game, this did feel rather like a clash between a good mid-table side and a poor mid-table side; neither convinced as likely major contenders even for the lesser European spots, and certainly not for the top four.

Morgan Rogers's owners will no doubt be crowing about another goal for him - but they should reflect that his successful effort needed a massive deflection to beat Bernd Leno,... while he later squandered a much better chance; his xGI still ranks only 22nd amongst midfielders, 36th amongst all players (and this mid-gameweek, while several are still to play and might overtake him). I admire his ability, his potential tremendously; but I just don't think he's yet posting the numbers to be in FPL contention, even as a budget fifth pick in midfield. The final score slightly flattered Villa, as things might have turned out differently if the penalty hadn't been squandered (one has to query why Marco Silva didn't have Raul take it, when he's in such hot scoring form; Martinez has a great record for saving penalties - but I could have saved that one...), and Andersen hadn't got sent off... and Diop hadn't been unlucky to turn the ball into his own net late on.

I had thought that the Manchester United dressing-room might have been looking forward to a possible escape from the dour Ten Hag, and now be emotionally depleted by the disappointing news that they're stuck with him, probably for the rest of the season. But perhaps his players don't find him as uninspiring as I do (or perhaps it's just their professional pride or concern for the United fans kicking in...?), because they produced one of their best performances of the season this Saturday. The return of Hojlund might be a key catalyst, giving them a more dangerous outlet up front; and Rashford and Garnacho are starting to look lively again. Brentford are still looking like a team who are too good to go down, but not good enough to achieve very much more than that.

Newcastle are still misfiring rather, at the back (Livramento and Hall looking a pale shadow of the Trippier-Burn combination of the last two seasons) and up front (Isak and Gordon getting lots of chances, but somehow not quite putting them away...). They completely dominated this game, but couldn't make their superiority count - and got caught out by one quick breakaway (and another slick finish from Danny Welbeck). But they should have had a penalty for Veltman's blatant handball on the ground early in the game, so can feel hard done-by for the loss of their unbeaten home record here.

Southampton, I think, continue to show slow signs of improvement, at least in their attacking game. But the defence is still letting them down: you should never give up a two-goal lead, even when a man down. Leicester were scarcely more impressive; although they have much more talent in their squad, I have serious doubts about whether 'Clueless' Steve Cooper will be able to get the best out of them. Southampton might feel a little hard done-by that they had a clear penalty shout ignored before Leicester had equalized... and then that the added-on time was allowed to run on so long. But it felt to me like just about the right result overall. Facundo Buonanotte - and perhaps his new sidekick Abdul Fatawu too - will surely start attracting a lot of interest from FPL managers after another fine display.

Everton are looking increasingly fluent and dangerous in attack, with McNeil and Ndiaye in outstanding form (Calvert-Lewin rather less so; the nearly 300,000 FPL managers who've impulsively piled in for him over the past five or six weeks might be starting to have second thoughts); but they need a sterner test than Ipswich to convince me about their solidity in central midfield. I hope McKenna can pull Ipswich through; I think he's the best manager at one of the promoted sides this year; but he is perhaps lumbered with the weakest of those three squads.

Arsenal's bad history with red cards is becoming a worry - difficult to see why it's happening, as they don't look a particularly physical, aggressive, or cynical side; but that's already their third this season, and it's costing them dearly. There wasn't really any dispute about the decision, either: Saliba obviously accepted it meekly, and even Arteta had no whinge about it afterwards. But frankly, the Gunners had looked a bit lacklustre even before that, and a much improved Bournemouth would probably have given them a very hard fight even without the man-advantage.


You have to wonder what's going on with Pep and Phil Foden. I suspect the young star has committed the cardinal sin of complaining about his ration of minutes - resulting in him being punished with even shorter minutes. He doesn't seem to have any injury problem, and there is no conceivable tactical reason for his repeated omission this season. Savinho continues to be far too much of a yellow-card magnet; and he might again have had two in this game (it was unfathomable that he was let off his early professional foul!). And oh dear, Gvardiol got another screamer - so, all those dupes who spent over-the-odds on him expecting this kind of thing every week will feel vindicated for a while. Of course, he might score in each of the next four games... but then not hit the net again for another two years; that's how it goes with goalscoring defenders. Given City's complete inability to keep clean sheets this year, he really needs a goal every four or five games to justify the 6-million price-tag, and I seriously doubt if he can keep that up. (And he was lucky not to concede an own goal! He created a problem by charging back directly towards his keeper when he was about to make a block, just as in the Todibo-Areola incident on Saturday, and he had no idea where the ball would end up when the rebound off Ederson cannoned off his knee - must have been very relieved to see it fly just wide of the post.)

Sa kept Wolves in the game with a trio of full-stretch saves. But they'd often troubled City on the counter-attack, and really looked well worth a point. I don't think I've ever seen Guardiola and Lillo looking so miserable in the dugout: frustration quickly gave way to despair; and indeed, on a few occasions, it looked as if they were resorting to prayer.  It was such a pity Wolves couldn't quite weather that blizzard of corners in the last few minutes of added-on time. (Though, not for the first time, City had begun to look much more incisive after Foden and Grealish came on late in the game; and you have to question why they weren't playing from the start.)  I hope that they won't be too demoralised by that last-gasp failure, and that this will be a turning-the-corner moment for them: if they continue to play like this, they should be able to pick up lots of points in the much easier run of fixtures they now face until the end of the year.

Liverpool v Chelsea was a lovely, open, thrilling game - almost marred by dodgy officiating. Chelsea should have had a penalty early on, when Trent stamped on Sancho's foot; but Chelsea might have been a man down even before that with Tosin's professional foul on a breakaway Jota. At least VAR corrected the ref's bad decisions on the penalty against Sanchez and the offside against Jackson (though the latter seemed to take an awfully long time, for what looked like a very clearcut call). The temporary loss of two stalwarts in their defence probably cost Chelsea here (I can't see a very rusty-looking Reece James having reclaimed the start from Gusto with this performance). This was a match that could easily have gone either way (with both Jackson and Palmer having very near misses), and I don't think Chelsea should be at all discouraged by their unfortunate failure to come away with anything; for me, they're still looking good value for a top four finish. Liverpool, though, might well be poised for a title charge - as City and Arsenal stutter slightly.


It was difficult to divine much about the Monday night game from the very brief highlights posted by the League. Palace looked a bit hard done-by - enjoying lots of possession, and having some very near-misses: Nketiah and Eze both smashed the woodwork, and Sels pulled off enough saves to earn maximum bonus points in the game. Wood, on the other hand, seemed to be going off the boil rather, missing a number of good chances; and his eventual late winner, though a sweet strike from outside the box, was essentially down to a goalkeeping error from Henderson. In our funny old game', Forest have so far been massively over-performing, while Palace, despite showing a lot of promise, have failed to recapture the excellent form they showed at the end of last season. I expect both of those trends to change - but wouldn't like to predict how soon, or how strongly. I fear that Palace, with Spurs and Villa up soon, and City and Arsenal in the run-up to Christmas, are likely to be still deep in the relegation zone going into 2025.


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