Squad value - why it matters

I am frequently astounded by how many folks on the FPL forums profess to be utterly uninterested in growing their squad value - positively contemptuous of the very idea; and how often they cite as authority the thoughts on the subject of various supposed 'top performing managers'.  If these people really did say things like that, they're being at best disingenuous, if not dishonest or self-deluding. (And they're probably not really as good at the game as their fans believe....)

I can see that some people become disdainful of squad value because there is a small minority of managers in the game who focus only on that, treating FPL like Monopoly, competing to try to build the most expensive squad by season's end; it's fair enough to dismiss that as weird and silly. And I can see that others want to emphasise other factors in their selection decisions - even if squad value is playing a role too. A lot of people, not unnaturally, resent feeling pressured into making a transfer move early because of an imminent price change,... and want to protest that they never let that happen to them: it's an affirmation of their autonomy, a refusal to bow to the force of circumstance. But that's also weird and silly: you need to pay attention to the changing circumstances of the game, and act accordingly.

Squad value is vitally important.  Here's why:

1) As I explained more fully in an early post on here, Pounds EQUAL Points: the more money you have deployed in your starting eleven, the more points you should be capable of earning each week. (That's not infallibly true in all cases, of course: you still have to make the best possible picks, and enjoy a little bit of good luck. But in general, someone with a 105-million-pound-squad should be able to do substantially better than someone with a 99-million-pound squad.)

2)  More money in the bank doesn't just raise your points ceiling in theory: its more direct practical benefit is the amount of flexibility it gives you. At the start of the season, with the 100-million budget cap, it will have been a struggle to afford all the premium price players you might have coveted. But once you've grown your squad value by 3 million or so, you can bring in at least one more of those... or, perhaps, upgrade more modestly in 2 or 3 other positions.

3)  The unfortunate flipside of this 'flexibility' benefit is that you can be hamstrung by a loss of squad value: a shortfall of just 100 k can prevent you from acquiring a player you want.  This is particularly the case early in the season when, because almost all of the price steps are still in even increments of 500k, a 100k loss in squad value is effectively the same as a 500k drop: you can no longer afford anyone at a desired price-point, only half a million cheaper. Occasionally, a sudden price-drop can be even more limiting than that: for example, if you bet on Quansah at the start of this season, and were caught out by his price-drop, you can now only replace him with a 4-million-pound player - and there aren't any decent starters at that price-point; so, you might feel obliged to hang on to the Liverpool youngster, desperately hoping that his price won't fall any further. This is why, especially early in the season, you do need to take care to avoid possible loss of squad value. You should always try to buy players just before they go up in price; and you should always look to sell players who are likely to drop in price.

4)  Furthermore, squad value is an excellent indirect indicator of how well you're playing the game. Good players become popular and rise in value; if you get maximum benefit from their price rises, it means you recognised their value early, anticipated their improving trend in form or good run of fixtures, and were one of the first to buy them. Players who lose form, get injured, or otherwise fall out of favour at their club will lose value; you don't want players like that in your squad; you might move them out quickly to have the benefit of another player in their place giving you better points potential, rather than specifically to avoid a possible drop in price - but the consequence is the same. Once again, preserving your squad value is a precise indicator that you are regularly making good decisions to optimise your squad.

[I would argue that consistent growth in squad value is actually the best indicator of your ability in the game. Average points returns fluctuate from year to year, and are very susceptible to wild swings of luck. Ranking is even more variable, since the number of players in the game - and how good they are... and how lucky they are! - can  change massively from one year to the next; and, as I explained on here before in some detail, the upper reaches of the rankings are inevitably going to be dominated by people who are more-lucky-than-good. But a good rise in squad value every year is a really reliable sign that you're doing as many things as possible right.]

This is why squad value matters. And why it's so vital to move quickly for players you fancy (especially early in the season): if you were interested in bringing in Jackson or Wissa or Muniz or Wood or Welbeck or Vardy, or Salah or Jota or DeBruyne or Smith Rowe, or Romero or Faes.... you probably can't afford to do it any more! And if you have an eye on Savinho or Lewis, or Diaz or Son, you'd better move fast.

Another way of looking at it...

Erling Haaland's hattrick at the weekend has catapulted him to 24 points for the season - an awesome, nay, positively terrifying total. That's an average of 12 points per game so far.

However, it would be astonishing if he ended up with an average of much over 8 points per game; and his owners would have to feel pretty well satisfied with anything above 6.5.

Thus, we are in fact likely to see Haaland's average points return in continuous decline through the remainder of the season....

Yes, we've already passed 'Peak Haaland'!!  (How's that for a 'positive reframe'?!)

Luck-o-Meter (2)

After a fairly chaotic opening week, with far more than its fair share of refereeing howlers and inexplicable VAR screw-ups, GW2 was a much quieter affair - thank heavens.

I would say the major hiccup in 'expectability' or 'deservedness' this time around was the margin of City's victory over Ipswich. Now, Haaland fans will of course object that he's started the season in fine form, and, at home, against a promoted side, you should always fancy him to have a good chance of scoring a hattrick. Well, a chance, yes; but it was by no means a certainty. City aren't fully in their stride yet, so early in the season; they're trying to assimilate some new tactical ideas from Pep, while missing Rodri, and also, this week, Foden. And Ipswich are probably the strongest of the three promoted sides, were able to mount a very spirited resistance against Liverpool last week. So, I wouldn't have rated this one of the 4 or 5 fixtures where Haaland was likeliest to manage a hattrick this season. I would say City's expected range of goals for this one should have been 1 to 5, with the likeliest being 2 or 3; and Haaland's personal haul could have fallen from 0 to 3, with the likeliest being only 1 or 2. And he did need a very soft penalty award to get him going (more on that in a minute...). As I observed yesterday, Ipswich did a pretty good job of frustrating City for most of the 90 minutes; it was just one unfortunate 5-minute spell where they completely fell apart - mainly due to a succession of howlers by their keeper.

Because so many FPL managers had played their Triple Captain chip on Haaland this week, the impact of this succession of unfortunate and unexpected events was very much compounded. Those who took that decision were taking a wild punt - and didn't deserve to have it pay off quite this handsomely. They should be very, very grateful that the Fantasy Gods chose to smile on them this time....

But yes, that 'penalty'....  Yes, we've seen them given often enough before, as the saying has it. Davis reached out his foot to make a challenge, pulled back, but brought the foot down sharply right next to Savinho's. It looked like there was some contact. That's a risky thing for a defender to do in the box, sure. But my main gripe is with the VAR intervention here. The ref didn't give it. VAR told him to take a second look; and as I observed last week, the bar is set so high for that kind of instruction - even higher this season than last, supposedly - that it tends to carry the unfortunate import of, "Well, it's still your decision to make.... but we think you got it wrong first time."  THAT needs to change, that burdening of the referee with the heavy expectation that he ought to change his mind.  But even worse here, the incident didn't seem to be anywhere near that supposedly high threshold: the ref looked at the replays in perplexity for a long, long time - because neither of the two camera angles available gave a clear view of the incident: the 'point of contact', if indeed there was any contact at all, was concealed in one by the ball, and in the other by the defender's trailing leg. It looked as if the Ipswich man, Leif Davis, had made some sort of contact, with the edge of his boot or the side of his leg against Savinho's lower leg or foot, but you couldn't see exactly. So, whatever else this incident might have been, it manifestly was NOT a 'clear and obvious error' by the referee in the first place. My inclination - on first, and all subsequent viewings - was that there probably had been some contact, but not enough to cause the fall, too trivial to warrant a penalty.

And then the same two players were involved in a much more clearcut penalty shout up the other end a few minutes later, which the ref again waved away without a second thought. And this time - because it was City, at home - VAR didn't dare to utter a peep of protest. THAT too has got to change: the very well-known and obvious predisposition of referees to be lenient to the 'big clubs', especially in front of their own crowds.

And then, really Muric might have been awarded a foul when bundled over by Savinho in the build-up to the second goal. That would have been a bit of a soft one, and City might have felt a little aggrieved about it. But again, we've seen them given, very, very often: keepers tangling with an attacking player, going to ground easily, and getting a generous decision from the ref is an almost weekly event. Just not when it's the opposing keeper at The Etihad??  But I think, of all Muric's many egregious faults this Saturday, one of the worst may have been failing to appeal for it. He might have got something, if he'd made a bit more of a meal out of it.

Ipswich really were desperately unlucky in that game. And everyone who'd taken the very sensible decision to keep their TripleCap chip for another day were made to feel that Fate hates them.... Such is life.

We fervently hoped that would be it for the dodgy refereeing this weekend, but no, we got a couple of even more outrageous cock-ups right at the end of the Bournemouth v Newcastle game (and Bournemouth are evidently too small a club to benefit from any 'home advantage' with referees!). First, Ouattara's last-minute winner should not have been disallowed. And the decision was doubly baffling, because first of all the VAR official took the decision away from the ref, overruling him without giving him the option to review it himself; and second, it wasn't even a close call: there are some incidents like that where you can't very clearly see where a curved ball makes contact with the also somewhat curved upper arm, and the exact delineation between the acceptable and unacceptable parts of the arm are inevitably a tad vague anyway - but this wasn't one of those cases. The ball very clearly came off his shoulder; and that's allowed. You know that when even Alan Shearer acknowledges that his beloved Newcastle didn't deserve that decision, it was very, very, very WRONG.

The ref - and VAR - then added insult to injury when Joelinton, trying to delay the restart, grabbed the Bournemouth keeper around the throat from behind and threw him to the ground. That's a red card all day long. How did both officials (and the linesman, and VAR) somehow turn a blind eye to that??? WTF???

The result, or at least the scoreline, in this match, and also the Villa-Arsenal one, might also have been very different but for a couple of really outstanding saves each from Neto and Raya. Great shots, and great stops also factor in the 'luck' equation each week.

And under this heading, Eze was once again very unlucky not to get on the scoresheet, when he thumped a long-range drive against the crossbar.

The final instance of 'bad luck' I'd like to cite this week actually arises from the FPL game mechanics, rather than the on-pitch action or the officiating. It is unbelievably perverse of the game's 'Bonus Points System' not to give Cole Palmer maximum bonus points. He set up Madueke for all of his three goals. scored one himself - much the best of Chelsea's 6 - and was involved in the other two as well ('pre-assists' ought to be a recognised category of achievement: I find it particularly galling when a pass or cross or knockdown ceases to be credited as an 'assist' because of the slightest - non-decisive, irrelevant - deflection off a defender; I remember Kaoru Mitoma and Luis Diaz had a particularly bad run of losing points through this early last season... You'd think 'pre-assists' would at least get some BPS credit as a 'key pass' - but, it seems not; or not always?!). Madueke, you can have the match ball; but Palmer was clearly, head-and-shoulders above you for 'Man of the Match'.

Still, the big names all came through this week, so Madueke is the only 'unexpected' name in the 'Team of the Week' this time.

So, once again, plenty to feel baffled and aggrieved about. But things are getting slightly better....  Slow progress, but some. Let's hope it continues. Perhaps only an 8 out of 10 rather than a 9 this week....

GW2 - What did we learn?

 

No great revelations or surprises this week....

Brighton have started well, and clearly have the attacking players to cause almost anyone a problem. But they lack control in the middle of the park, and their defence looks vulnerable because of that. Jasone Steele's in great form, and might tempt people as a 4.5-million-pound goalkeeper option - but it must be doubetful if he'll keep his place once Verbruggen's available again. 

United once again look a mess, and there must be doubts about why Ten Hag apparently doesn't trust Zirkzee or De Ligt for immediate starts.... when they appear to be fully fit, and there's obviously a desperate need for them. Or indeed why he once again doesn't want to make any use of Sancho, yet persists with the unimpressive Mount and the downright woeiful Rashford....

Palace were a bit unlucky to lose to West Ham. Eze, in particular, is playing well, and for the second week running came very close to scoring a goal. However, losing Andersen, who has been the rock of their defence for the past four seasons, is a huge blow. The departure of Ayew as well is probably not as momentous in itself, but he at least brought experience and versatility to the club, so it's a loss of squad depth they could do without. And the ongoing rumours of a possible move for Guehi are further unsettling them. It's probably not wise to go for any of their assets at the moment, particularly not at the back, until things settle down for them.

Max Kilman is looking one of the best of the summer signings, giving West Ham a solidity at the back which they've lacked in recent seasons. They still don't seem to be creating a consistent attacking threat, though. It will be interesting to see how their style under Lopategui may evolve once Fullkrug is deemed ready to play 90 minutes with them.

It's nice to see Emile Smith Rowe get off the scoring mark with Fulham. But I think anyone hoping that he's going to be "this season's Cole Palmer" are going to end up being disappointed. He - and Iwobi too - will probably prove to be very good value for his price point; but that means a 150-160-pt season, not 200+. And, of course, there are lingering doubts about whether he can avoid injury.... and how soon he'll be fit enough to play a full game.

Leicester are looking quite decent, though I have little faith in Cooper's ability as a coach at this level; they may at least put up a decent fight to stay up... rather than being as good as gone by Christmas, like most of the promoted sides in the last few years.

Ipswich may have to consider their goalkeeping choices, after Muric's abysmal display at The Etihad. Maybe he's just ring-rusty, after sitting out most of last season.... but they can't afford any more performances like that between the sticks. At least they've notched their first goal now; and, after their brutal start to the season, they've now got a long run of mostly quite winnable games. I would think they are the likeliest of this year's promoted teams to be able to stay up.

City are still some way off their best, and were really quite fortunate to win this one as comfortably as they did. Apart from a five-minute spell in the middle of the first half where Ipswich completely lost their composure - after a very soft and contentious penalty award against them - the visitors kept tham at bay pretty well.

An important win for Forest against Southampton, as this was essentially the first relegation six-pointer of the season. Neither of them really showed much here - didn't do anything to indicate they deserve to stay up.

Alarm bells are ringing at Everton. I always thought their clean-sheet record last season was a bit of a freak, and unlikely to be repeated - but without Onana to provide a screen for the back-four, they look likely to be overrun almost every week. The one bright spot for them might be that Branthwaite's injury may allow them to hang on to him through this transfer window. But I doubt if even the formdiable Sean Dyche can save them this time, without some significant new signings; they have to be among the favourites to go down at the moment.

Spurs, for me, are still not firing on all cylinders; but at least Son is looking sharp. And once Solanke finds his feet there, they could be ready to challenge for a top four spot.  Good as their back four are, I think their high line will leave them too exposed to goals on the counter-attack - so, probably none of them will be great FPL choices.

Villa, likewise, have yet to hit their stride - though Morgan Rogers continues to impress, and might have cemented a regular start for himself. Watkins hasn't found his scoring boots yet - but surely will, before very long. It's the leaky defence that worries me most... although, if Cash has a serious hamstring problem, Nedeljković may suddenly have become the most appealing 4.0 player in the game.

Arsenal I'm not completely convinced by yet: when their outstanding outfield player is Partey (two weeks in a row!), I feel something's not quite right with them; and when Raya's having to make saves, something's not quite right. They've let two of their best back-up players, Nelson and Smith Rowe go, and now seem about to lose Nketiah too; but it looks like they've failed to land either Merino or Gyokeres. If so, their transfer business in this window will have been disasrous. The only new player they have brought in, Calafiori, Arteta seems strangely unwilling to play at the moment. He, and perhaps Martinelli also, don't seem to have their manager's full confidence. Signs of 'trouble in paradise', I fear.

Newcastle are obviously going to struggle at the back without Trippier and Schar (and Botman... and Lascelles...), but I wouldn't give up on Isak just yet: Gordon, Barnes, and Joelinton all look sharp and five of their next six fixtures are fairly inviting.

A bit of a 'game of two halves' from Bournemouth, who allowed Newcastle back into the game, after dominating the first 45 minutes; but they were ultimately robbed of a deserved win by yet another bonkers VAR call. Replacing Solanke is obviously a problem for them, but Semenyo is looking good... and Evanilson may work out. They're again going to be a reasonably strong mid-table side, I think, not in any danger of relegation.

Maresca is still struggling to find his best 11 among his bloated squad; and there are worrying rumours that he's pressured to play people he doesn't really rate, just to keep them in the shop window. Palmer is obviously more dangerous when allowed to play a free 'No. 10' role as here, but may get stuck on the right flank a lot of the time to accommodate Nkunku or Joao Felix or Enzo in that sort of central area. And possibly being without both Caicedo and Lavia for the next game would be a huge blow. Even with them screening the back line, they still look very vulnerable in defence; and Sanchez is the most unconvincing goalkeeper selection in the league at the moment (well, perhaps now second to Muric!). Jackson is one of the pleasantest surprises of the season: his pace and strength were always dangerous, but he's making much more intelligent runs now, getting in good positions far more often - both in the box, and deeper during the build-up. He must be under pressure for his position from Nkunku and Felix, but, for me, is looking good enough to keep the place for now (still needs to work on not straying offside so often, though....).

Brentford have big problems, especially at the back; and are likely to take a bit of a spanking in GWs 4 and 5. At least Flekken's shot-stopping is looking sharp; but it needs to be, because they're giving up so many chances. In other areas of the game, he still doesn't convince me he should be their starting choice. Mbeumo still attracts me as a goal-scoring 'midfielder' who could get loads of Fantasy points - but his potential will be restricted if they're floundering in the relegation zone, which is looking ominously likely at the moment (Maybe the silver lining there is that it might free Thomas Frank up for the England job...?)

I don't think things are entirely rosey at Liverpool: twice now they've laboured to get a win against a side who will probably be at the bottom end of the table for most of the season. Their forwards are all looking in great form, and that will almost always carry them through. But their midfield isn't really working at the moment, and the defence hasn't looked as daunting as it was in Klopp's heyday a few years back. I was particularly pleased to see such a bright display from Luis Diaz, who has always been a favourite of mine; but, despite my own counsel against this as one of the worst FPL vices, I admit to having become rather superstitious about him: he has been the unluckiest player in the league over the past two seasons, and I am convinced something awful will happen to him the moment I bring him into my squad....  (So, for now, I'll stick with Jota... who, of course, has never been known to suffer any bad luck!)

Be not disheartened!

 

I pointed out a few days ago that The Game - in terms of attaining an ultimate high-ranking finish - was already over for anyone who'd had a 'bad day' on the opening Gameweek. For many of us, that got worse when Valentin Barco, who had looked to be the most promising 4.0-million-pound player this year, was sent off to Spain on loan; and even worse, when Jarrell Quansah precipitately dropped in price - making him now unsellable (there's really no-one cheaper to sell him for; and you can no longer afford anyone he was formerly the same price as...).

And then, for very nearly half of us, things got worse again yesterday when the lanky Viking picked up his first hattrick of the season (and many of that other half who'd bet on Haaland had not only made him their captain, but their Triple Captain - ugh!).

But this kind of thing always happens. The opening few weeks are particularly RANDOM; some players and teams start hot... others disastrously misfire.... others oscillate weirdly between the two poles, for no fathomable reason. Because there's so much uncertainty about which players are going to be available, which are going to be picked, who's going to be in form, and what tactics their manager is going to ask them to play this year... the whole thing is a huge LOTTERY.

There were at least 100 or so justifiable player picks going into the start of the season; and no-one could possibly know which of them were going to work out best over the opening weeks. In the last third or quarter of the season, the pool of reasonable picks will probably have shrunk to only 50 or 60, perhaps even a bit less, and it's likely that 3 or 4 or 5 players may have established themselves as unquestionable must-haves.... so, the differentiation between squads is a fair bit narrower (though it never disappears).

Also, as I touched upon in the first of my summaries of how far LUCK has affected each of the Gameweeks, there are likely to be more refereeing cock-ups early in the season (ring-rust, nerves, naivety... problems of rules interpretation or 'bad habits' that can, hopefully, be fairly quickly ironed out), which can add enormously to the randomness of results and FPL points returns.

Moreover, a lot of FPL managers are playing in a very short-sighted, short-term kind of way - either out of perverse greed and impatience, or just colossal naivety.... or, in some cases, because they're pursuing very limited objectives: some are participating in rogue leagues for side-games like pursuing a 'weekly win', no matter the cost in transfers; others, even if not formally in competition, set that as a goal for themselves; others again are just hungry to establish an early lead over their mini-league rivals. 

Managers like these were happy to blow a 'bonus chip' in the opening Gameweek! Many others opted to use their first Wildcard already in GW2! Those folks are really going to regret not having those chips available later in the season.  Even those who just played their 'Triple Captain' chip on Haaland against Ipswich, which worked out pretty nicely for them.... might come to regret the decision slightly if Mr Robot produces one or two even bigger hauls later in the season, which he probably will. And it is highly likely that some of the high-scoring midfielders (who, because the game loves them, get more points than a forward for the same attacking returns...) - Salah, Jota, Diaz, Palmer, Son, Saka; maybe Bowen or Eze or Mbeumo as well - will produce a few better hauls over the season. Haaland's 17 points on Saturday was an excellent return for the Triple Captain chip; but it almost certainly won't be the biggest of the season (maybe even for him), and if it ends up not even making the Top 5 or Top 10 hauls of the year.... 'grass is greener' remorse will assail those who are currently gloating so obnoxiously.

Over time, for most people (not everyone - but let's not bother ourselves too much about that), the operation of LUCK in this game tends to even itself out. People might start off being very lucky in the opening Gameweek; they might even be able to continue their good fortune for the next two or three weekends - but then things will start to swing against them.

The top of the global rankings are currently dominated by people who used their chips early and/or just got lucky on a couple of BIG selection guesses - this early success won't last for most of them.

TRUE MERIT only begins to assert itself in the FPL tables after 10-15 Gameweeks. Console yourselves with that, for now.

A little bit of Zen (4)

 "Most predictions look stupid by the end of the season.

   Some look stupid after one week.  But they may start to look wise again after another two or three..."

GW

Two mid-price picks beat a premium and a dud

 

The other day, I went into some detail about why getting two good mid-price keepers is always better than getting a premium option and a non-starter (as a compensatory money-saver).

But the general principle holds good in all positions. 

You tend to find the best value (and, sometimes, the unexpected gems) in the middle price segments. And going for a non-starter, or a very weak player, just to save money is a false economy.

NOTE: I'm saying to avoid 'duds' - not cheap players. Some cheaper options get regular starts; some of them are actually quite good. It's fine to go with one of them as an early season budget-enabler. But before long, you should really be looking to upgrade every member of your squad to a level where you could put them in your starting eleven without embarrassment (because having a strong Bench is important!). It's very unlikely that you'll ever find a really solid squad member at the lowest price-points: but you can find someone who won't be a liability - until you can afford to replace him with something better.

You should never, ever have a non-starter*, or a very poor player in your squad.

*  The sole possible exception to that is there's an arguable case for taking a back-up keeper from the same club as your primary pick, if he only costs 4.0 million (and even then, only as a start-of-season budget-saver). It at least gives you guaranteed back-up if your primary gets a last-minute injury; but it's very unsatisfactory overall, and needs to be upgraded as soon as possible.

Dilemmas of the week - GW2

Every week, we need to take a long hard look at our squad, and ask ourselves if we want to make any changes....

And even if we do see a pressing case for a change here or there, we then need to weigh that against the possible advantage of saving our transfer - 'rolling' it over to use in a future week. This option achieves greater tactical complexity this season with the new rule that allows us to save up as many as 5 Free Transfers to use at one time. If we ever manage to do that, it would in effect be a 'mini Wildcard', enabling us to conduct a major squad overhaul in one fell swoop (particularly useful as there are a handful of 'premium' players who cost so much more than everyone else that you can't conveniently move them in and out of your squad without making multiple other changes as well).

Then, of course, occasionally multiple changes may seem so inescapable that we have to consider whether it's worth spending points on 1 or 2 extra transfers (a tactic which obviously deserves a whole post of its own one day).

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 2?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Amazingly, NO. 

Last season, we saw a plethora of injuries just ahead of the first kick-off, and on the opening weekend, and over the subsequent two weeks of training. But this year - thank heavens - so far, nothing serious.  Saka looked to have twisted his right knee quite badly; but there's no word of any problem for him about that yet, so it looks like he's OK (the lad does seem to be superhumanly resilient to injuries that would sideline anyone else for a month or two!). And Porro picked up a knock in Monday night's game which has him listed as 'doubtful' for this weekend; but my guess is that he'll be able to play - and if he is isn't, it looks like only a one-week problem (and you don't waste transfers moving people in and out of the squad for short-term issues like that; you should just be able to leave him on the bench for a week or two).  Rodri looks like he might be out for a while with a hamstring problem (but we knew that before the GW1 deadline; and he's not likely to have been in many people's squads anyway).  Brighton's new winger Minteh got a bad concussion towards the end of the first half, but will probably be OK again for the weekend; and he's only in a tiny percentage of FPL squads. Mateta also appeared to be struggling from a knock when he went off on Saturday, but is not reported as an injury problem.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Barco is the main worry here. His ownership had swelled to nearly 24% before the first deadline, on the back of expectations that he would be Brighton's first choice at left-back as long as Estupinan was still unfit - but, as it turned out, Hurzeler preferred Hinshelwood, and even though he struggled somewhat against Harrison and McNeil early on (they became less of a threat after Young's sending-off), Barco didn't even get any minutes off the bench. If you gambled on Barco, you might hang tough for another week or two, to see if Hurzeler gives him a chance; but the danger with an 'over-owned' player like this is that disillusion among his managers may set in fast, triggering a big sell-off and price-drop - which is not something you want to suffer, especially this early in the season when budget is so tight.

Quansah, owned by around 5%, presents a similar problem, after his brutal half-time substitution by Arne Slot - which I fear will have dented his confidence and may negatively affect his next few performances, even if he does get more starts.  He remains tempting, I think, because he's more of a known quantity than Barco: he not only played well in pre-season, but got 13 starts under his belt in the EPL last year. And he's the cheapest route into the Liverpool defence, who do look likely to be a lot less leaky under the Slot system, and are blessed with a particularly kind run of early fixtures this year. Since Konate has notorious injury and stamina problems, and there is no other cover in that position (apart from Joe Gomez, who always looks a bit of a liability at centre-back to me), Quansah will almost certainly get another chance fairly soon (if not this week), so is probably worth continuing to gamble on. [But, oh damn, just after I'd written this yesterday, I saw that Quansah was one of the first round of price-drops on Tuesday night - already down to 4.4.]

And Schar, of course, is suspended - for at least this week (even if an appeal goes well for him), probably three.  A three-week absence would be a problem for his owners: it's really on that cusp of not wanting to carry dead wood on your bench for that long, but it's still quite an extravagant use of precious transfers....

Trippier and Toney look to have been dropped pending the conclusion of transfer discussions. They would both have been very dubious picks at this stage anyway; but if you have them, you need to reconsider. Trippier looks to be headed overseas, so his FPL price is likely to crash, and it would be best to move him out in a hurry. There is a chance that Toney will move to another Premier League club, so his owners might want to hang on another week or two in hopes of that (although that's a bit risky; most of the domestic interest in him seems to have dried up, and my bet would be that he too will depart for the Saudi League).

Calafiori, as expected, wasn't considered quite 'ready' for a starting place at Arsenal yet; but he did at least get some token minutes off the bench near the end - which suggests he's not far away. However, at 6 million, he's a very expensive gamble. We know Arteta has a soft spot for Zinchenko's effectiveness slotting into midfield; and he's playing so well at the moment, he looks unlikely to be dropped - until he gets injured (which, the historical record would suggest, will be soon...). But with Timber also trying to stake a claim to more first-team minutes, many fear that Calafiori in his debut season is unlikely to become as nailed as the dependable troika of White-Saliba-Gabriel. If you have him, I'd probably stick with him a bit longer, to see if he gets his chance. But it's a bold risk to take: Are you feeling lucky today, punk?

Walker - finally starting to show some signs of aging last year, and never one of Pep's big favourites anyway: I've said before that I couldn't see him getting nearly as many starts this year as he did last; and after Rico Lewis's near 'Man of the Match' performance on Saturday, it's becoming harder to envision him getting any starts at all in the new future.

Gakpo, Nunez??  Did anyone really think they were going to start?!  If you did, you deserve your nul points!

Sancho??? Did anyone expect him to start?? (Or to be any good, if he did - given his unhappy history at Man Utd?  That boy really needs to get another loan deal sorted out.)

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Remarkably, NO. Usually, there are a few players who perform so badly in the opening game - or look very obviously out of sympathy with a new tactical system, or uncomfortable with the personality of a new coach - that we have to immediately consider offloading them. But this year - for the first time in ages - no-one springs to mind....

Well, except Rashford (but really, who are these 5% of managers who chose him for the start of the season???), or maybe Garnacho....?  The young Argentinian blows too hot-and-cold for me, in a United team that is still struggling to find any balance and consistency: his Fantasy output is highly dependent on who else is around him (I have hopes that he might forge a fruitful cooperation with Zirkzee, but that will take some time), and on whether he's played on the left or the right (much more dangerous on the right).

Solanke may have 'disappointed' on his first run-out for Spurs, and will obviously need a little time to settle in there - but there's no reason to drop him, if you have him. (Though he wouldn't have been a 'Top 3' striker pick for me anyway....)

And Sanchez and Flekken set off enough alarm-bells that they must be considered vulnerable to possible replacement - but probably not for a few more weeks at least.

There is obviously no reason to give up on the likes of Watkins, Palmer, De Bruyne, Foden, Odegaard, Gordon, Diaz, Eze or Nkunku after one 'blank' week.....

But Son...?  I've always been hesistant to include him because he goes through such long spells of 'blanking'. And he looked very anonymous in Monday night's game. If you were initially torn between him and one of the other 9 or 10-million-pound options,.... I'd consider a switch.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Everyone should really have had Salah and Jota already; they, and the inevitable Haaland, all performed much as expected - reassuring their FPL managers that they are sound choices. But if you made the decision to go without one of these at the start of the year, that is a fundamental long-term tactical choice for the season - you shouldn't be flip-flopping on it after one game.

People are probably getting over-excited about Havertz after his scoring start against Wolves. He's still likely to face some rotation during the season, he's more a 'false 9' than a primary goalscorer at the moment, and he'll probably get pulled out of the forward line altogether if Arteta manages to sign an outright striker in the next 10 days.  Havertz is a decent forward choice for now; but I don't see him continuing to be all season.... and there are probably slightly better options around his price-point anyway.

Saka - and Arsenal - started very brightly. My reservation about him - especially at such a high price point this time - is that Arteta is increasingly requiring a more disciplined, 'controlling' role from him that doesn't allow him to break into the box nearly as often in most games. Last season, the great majority of his attacking contributions came in only a dozen or so games, split into two insanely hot spells, one early in the season and one straight after the winter break. If he's starting this year the same way he did last, he probably is worth getting for now; but I still have doubts about him as a season-hold. (And he was limping heavily at the end of the Wolves game, so it might be worth waiting a little longer to make a decision on whether to get him in.)

Vardy, at his age, can't be expected to repeat the heroics of his heyday 7 or 8 years ago, but he has still got the knack for goals. He's probably going to have heavily managed minutes this year - but could still be a very tempting pick for a cheap third forward.

Porro is now an injury doubt for this week. And, as with Havertz, I think FPL managers are probably getting over-excited about one goal....  I said a few weeks back that I thought Porro was a very dubious pick for this season, because although he'll be very good (quite possibly a 'Top 10' defender.... although not, I think, 'Top 5', which is really what you want, especially for your more expensive picks), his potential for attacking contributions is grossly overestimated. Now, it often happens that when a defender gets a goal, they go and get another one only a week or two later.... and, if you're very lucky, perhaps even a third within the space of a month or so...  But that will be it: defenders almost never score more than 2 or 3 goals a season; and even those who've fairly consistently delivered 2 or 3 will often have seasons where they get 1 or 0...  So, piling in for a defender who's just scored might reward you over the next month - but it's not likely to do much for your season overall. (And, after this week's home game against Everton, Spurs face a bit of a rocky cluster of fixtures, so.... I'd pass on Porro here.)

Kovacic and Lewis - are tempting because, for City players, they are fairly low-priced, as they weren't expected to be starters. And both had absolute stormers in the opening game. However, as a central midfielder, Kovacic is very unlikely to get regular attacking contributions (a better keeper than Sanchez might have stopped his shot on Sunday); and he will probably be dropped as soon as Rodri is available again. And.... City face a couple of very tough fixtures in GWs 5 & 6. Rico Lewis, on the other hand - although the mind of Pep is unfathomable, and his penchant for 'Roulette' an inevitable hazard - does look to have staked a claim to a regular start; and he is really the only affordable route into that inviting City defence. (Some people might have already taken him before the season began as a speculative pick, thinking that he might be worth having whenever he did get a run of starts.... They are now very happy campers!)  My mate Geordie Adam at FourFourTwo - although he explicitly disclaims recommending him for FPL yet - has just made a very compelling case for Lewis.

Mazraoui and Zirkzee (and possibly De Ligt too, once he's settled in) look like they might be the best transfers of the summer. But I'd be hesistant to bring in anyone from Manchester United while the team is still struggling for balance and consistency. I don't think Ten Hag is the right coach for that club, and I can't really see them doing any better than a Europa League place under him...

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

"They think it's all over...."

 

It is is easy to become disheartened if you get your FPL season off to a particularly unlucky start... and you may even be tempted to quit the game entirely just a week or two in....

And you may be right to do so!

In my extensive skimming of the top FPL performers over the past 4 or 5 years or so,  I have discovered...  that the Global Champions - and most, if not all, of those who finish the year in the top few 1,000s or 10s of 1,000s - were invariably inside the top 500,000 or so (and usually, in fact, inside the top 100,000 or 200,000) by the end of GW5.

And in order to reach the top half million by then, you really can't afford to be much outside the top 2.5 or 3 million after GW1....

Hence - if you entertain grandiose dreams of perhaps topping the global rankings at season's end, or at least of cracking the top 10,000 or 20,000 - at least two-thirds of FPL players are already shit out of luck as far as that ambition is concerned; and in another four or five weeks, the game will probably be as good as over for nearly 95% of players.

Depressing, yes.

Starting quick out of the blocks is fairly crucial to attaining a really good overall finish; while a poor opening week can be calamitous.

And it is frighteningly easy to do that badly in the opening week. You don't have to make terrible choices; you just have to suffer a little bit of bad luck.

If, for example, you went with Isak, Watkins, and Muniz up front (an entirely justifiable set of selections) rather than Haaland, Havertz and Wood, you'd be looking at a sizeable points deficit just on those three picks alone. And even if you had Salah in midfield (god help you if you didn't....; in fact, god help you if you didn't make him captain!), if you'd gone for, say, Palmer, Bowen, Eze and Gordon as your other 4 choices (again, entirely sensible and defensible picks) rather than Saka, Jota, Mbeumo and Semenyo.... well, again, Fate has just crapped on you from a great height. (As I pointed out the other day, Palmer, Eze, and Gordon were denied the possibility of much higher scores by some terrible refereeing; so, it really is appalling luck that those players didn't produce more for you.)

This week's 'global average' score of 57 leaves you well outside the top 4,000,000. Even 10 points above that - which I usually regard as a good benchmark for a reasonably successful week (particularly when the global average is relatively low) - barely gets you into the top 2,000,000.

So, most of us will have to focus on different goals for this year. The BIG ONE has already got away.....

Goal setting

 

Many people like to set specific goals and objectives for their FPL year. And this is probably a useful thing - for helping you to maintain your focus and enthusiasm throughout the season, and giving you a ready measure of your progress and success.

However, most people seem to focus exclusively on RANK, picking an arbitrary level - Top 500,000, Top 100,000, Top 20,000.... or whatever - that they aspire to reach.

I think that's a complete waste of time. First, because those upper echelons are impossible to reach on skill alone (as I explained in detail in a post last weekend, you need a substantial helping of luck as well to get up that high; and many people at that level are relying on far more luck than skill...).  Second, because it's completely unrealistic for a newbie or a fairly inexperienced or 'casual' manager to get anywhere close to the Top 100,000 (without being very lucky!!); so, claiming something like that as your 'target' is only going to lead to discouragement.  And third, because there's much more variability in the rankings than there is in the average points returns from year to year:  you never know how many people are going to participate in each year, how many of them will take the game 'seriously', how many will be experienced.... and good.... and lucky. Some years, cracking the top 500,000 might not be much of an achievement at all, and others..... it could be quite a mountain to climb.

Hence, I like to focus primarily on points - rather than rank. I already did a short post on what different annual points totals tend to indicate about your performance in the game.

So, my tips for suitable GOALS to give you some focus and inspiration are:

1)  Choose an end-of-year points total that you want to reach.  [Try to make sure it's not completely unrealistic - not miles beyond your previous best; and if you've never played before, it's probably best to assume that you won't get much better than 1,800 or 1,900 first time out. You can also set yourself some intermediate milestones: e.g, every 9 or 10 games, you should be aiming to reach one-quarter of your final target.]

2)  Join some small leagues - ideally with people that you know in real life: and aim to finish TOP (or at least in the top five, say, if you think it's a pretty strong league).  [The strongest of all human motivations is the desire to put one over on friends, family members, workmates and neighbours! Playing against people you know rather than just anonymous netizens puts far more fire in your belly!]

3)  Look for some more mid-sized leagues you could also join, preferably ones where the standard of competition seems quite high. You need only set very general goals for these (at least until you've had a chance to gauge how well you compare to the other participants), such as striving to get into the top half or the top 25%.  [The global league - and many of the larger club and country and broadcaster leagues - are just too huge and anonymous to be interesting to me. I much prefer leagues with just a few 100s, or at most a few 1,000s of players - where you can over time start to recognise and get to know something about your competitors, at least the ones who are most often closest to you in the rankings. You can learn a lot from studying a rival's styles and preferences.]

These are all season-long focuses. For a more immediate weekly goal, the best thing you can do is....

4)  Focus on the 'global average' for the week, and see how much you can beat it by.  [If you're new to the game, just beating the weekly average fairly consistently, even by a little, is a pretty good start. Once you're managing that, you can steadily ramp up the margin of superiority you hope for: 5 points better than average, 10 points better.... 15 points better?  Note, however, that however good you are, there will be some weeks when everything goes wrong for you and you end up being substantially below the global average. Those weeks hurt bad - just got to suck it up.]

PROSPER, AND BE HAPPY!

A good rotation pair beats a premium keeper

Every year in FPL we see a lot of naive managers going for a super-expensive goalkeeper - perhaps just because he's famous and plays for a big club, perhaps because they've noticed he got a really good season total last year - maybe even the top goalkeeper score.

Alas, that means nothing for FPL! There's a very tight spread of prices in that position category, and also usually a pretty tight spread of points at the top end of the performance table. Hence, there's no differential value in a premium keeper. There's no point spending that extra money when someone 0.5 or 1.0 million cheaper (occasionally even 1.5 million cheaper, if there's a 6.0 million premium option) could get you very nearly as many points (while allowing you a substantial upgrade in one or two other positions, where the extra money spent would buy you more points).

Moreover, to try to compensate for this rash overspend (and because they're so confident that their main man can and will start every game, and never suffer a knock or a dip in form or a run of tough fixtures....) they go for a shit back-up - perhaps even a non-starter - to save money.

And yet still they very often end up spending 9.0 or 9.5 or 10.0, or sometimes even a staggering 10.5 million pounds on this ill-matched pair of keepers (which is really only ONE keeper) - when you can always buy a really good pair for 4.5 million each!

Now, OK, the best 4.5-million-pound pick might not outscore the premium options over the season (but sometimes they do; and they usually get pretty close!). But goalkeepers (and defenders) almost invariably do significantly better when playing at home. They also, of course, do significantly better playing against the promoted sides and other teams in very poor form. And all of them (yes, even those premium picks) can take a pasting from a hot goalscoring side.

You can easily find a list of the clubs which are matched for home and away fixtures (it's usually pretty obvious: it's arranged to ease the burden of policing, so nearby clubs don't play at home in the same gameweek). Here's the EPL list for the current season:  https://www.premierleague.com/en/news/4045136

Though I wouldn't follow that too slavishly. I find picking and choosing your keepers' opponents is far more important than always pursuing the often tenuous 'home advantage'.

Rotating a pair of mid-priced goalkeepers effectively around their fixtures is worth at least an extra 20-30 points per season. (And you almost never find the top-returning premium keeper beating the best mid-price keeper by that much of a margin. Moreover, you always have guaranteed back-up in the position, where people taking a chance on a non-playing second choice will probably end up suffering a few nul-point goalkeeper returns.)

Choosing a good pair of cheaper goalkeepers will actually get you more points than a set-and-forget premium - and it can save you money.

Luck-o-Meter (1)

 

After last week's two extended essays on how we experience luck in FPL, and what effect it has on ranking results,..... I thought I'd initiate a series of weekly round-ups, trying to assess just how lucky or unlucky each Gameweek has been (not just for me - but in general!).

And we've got off to a pretty poor start - with a plethora of dubious or just downright bad refereeing decisions.

Red cards - given, or not given - are a relatively rare event, and can have a massive influence on game outcomes (and hence on the earning of FPL points from all players involved in the game where the incident occurs); they are thus one of the largest elements of luck in the game. And this weekend there were 4 red-card incidents - which is a lot.

Ashley Young's sending-off might have seemed slightly harsh, but was justified on a strict reading of the relevant rules - and probably didn't greatly affect the game outcome anyway, since Everton were struggling to have any impact in the match (although it might be argued that Brighton might not have scored quite so many goals against full-strength opponents).

Schar's sending-off was unjust, and had a massive impact on the course of the game. He was foolish to get involved in an altercation like that, but there was clearly no 'headbutt' - he didn't move his head towards Brereton-Diaz. And VAR should have been able to overturn that, or at least direct the refereee to view it again pitchside and reconsider; it is baffling that that didn't happen. If that red card were to stand, Brereton-Diaz should have been dismissed as well; either as being equally culpable for initiating the confrontation, and leaning into Schar to create the forehead-to-forehead touch as much as Schar did.... or via an immediate second yellow card for his play-acting. That would have been a fairer resolution of the incident, and would not have limited Newcastle's success in the game so severely.

This is THE BIG INCIDENT of the Gameweek for FPL, since many managers will have had high-owned players like Isak and Gordon (or perhaps Bruno Guimaraes), who.... at home, against a newly-promoted side, could reasonably have been expected to achieve a comfortable win and perhaps obtain large Fantasy points hauls..... but not when playing with 10 men for most of the game.

Perhaps equally significant might have been the incomprehensible failure to dismiss Ipswich defender Wes Burns for a blatantly intentional handball after he'd already been booked for an earlier foul. Liverpool against 10 men might well have gone on a rampage, and picked up many more points for Salah and Jota.... and perhaps for other attack-minded players too, like Diaz, Szoboszlai or Gakpo.

Other high-owned players to suffer from poor refereeing were Palmer (who surely should have had two penalties; the incident where Savinho just piled through the back of Enzo at the edge of his own box was 100% clearcut; but again, VAR declined to suggest a pitchside review - bizarre), and Eze, denied a 'Goal of the Month' contender from his free-kick because of a rookie ref's ridiculously premature whistle (for a 'foul' that very obviously wasn't a foul anyway; Collins just fell over, hoping to con him!). Both of these also missed out on 'assists' through fairly tight offside calls - so, owners of these two players can feel particularly aggrieved that the 'Luck' swing-o-meter was lurching heavily against them this week.

What vexes me most about the Crystal Palace incident was the VAR team's renouncing of responsibility on the unconvincing grounds that the ref's whistle had blown before the ball crossed the line. If it did, it was only a matter of 10ths, or even perhaps just 100ths of a second before; and, of course, the exact timing of a whistle can't readily be measured because it is heard at different times depending how far away from it you are (on the TV coverage, it appeared to happen pretty much exactly as the ball clipped off the inside of the post - so, perhaps mere nanoseconds before it crossed the line to become a goal). Whenever the whistle was deemed to have sounded - just before the ball crossed the line, just after, or while it was doing so.... -  shouldn't make any difference, since what is material in incidents like this is whether the whistle had any impact on the play (did the defending side 'stop playing' because they heard it?); here, clearly NO - Eze had caught the entire Brentford side by surprise with the quick free-kick, and his shot had already passed them all. So, any sensible application of the rules would allow for VAR - or the referee himself - to walk that decision back. (And if the referee immediately realised that he'd made a mistake, not just to blow the whistle so early, but to blow it at all - because it wasn't a foul - he should at least have allowed the free-kick to be retaken. But perhaps he didn't realise his second error at the time, only the first one - that the unfortunate timing of his whistle was 'preventing' VAR from helping him to review his decision on the supposed foul.)

If even one of Chelsea's penalty shouts had been given, they might have nicked a win off City - as they came back into the game more and more strongly in the second half. Likewise, Palace's game at Brentford might have turned out completely differently if their early breakthrough had been allowed to stand (and they hadn't then immediately conceded on a quick counter while still reeling from the shock of that monumental snafu). So, as with the Newcastle and Ipswich sending-off incidents, the refereeing in these two games potentially had massive consequences for FPL points this week.

Team selections can also sometimes be seen as rather lucky/unlucky.  Quansah's sudden withdrawal at half-time was a hard blow for anyone that owned him (though it might be said that his starting at all was a little bit of a surprise, and so perhaps 'lucky' already). And Valentin Barco's failure even to get minutes off the bench - when he had looked good in pre-season, and was widely considered a favourite to start for Brighton at left-back - was a bitter disappointment to many more. (His ownership had surged to a huge 23.7% - though probably the great majority of those will only have had him on the bench. Even so, they may now feel a need to offload him urgently, as he seeems not to have Hurzeler's confidence; and having to use a transfer so early to move out a speculative squad-filler has a cost of its own. If you take  gambles like this, you must expect to be unlucky with them sometimes; but it is still unlucky.)

And only 3 or 4 of this week's 'Team of the Week' were among the highest-owned players; so, everyone who happened to have one or more of the others can count themselves very lucky as well.

Anyone who went for Palmer or Eze (or Isak or Gordon.... or, of course, Schar!) this weekend was very hard done by.  While anyone who went for Salah or Jota or Saka or Havertz was rewarded a little more richly than might might have been reasonably anticipated.  And given that Isak and Gordon and Eze and Palmer were probably four of the most popular alternatives to Salah for the captaincy this week, the impact of their misfortune for their FPL owners is all the greater. And anyone who went for a keeper or defender from Southampton or Ipswich or Brentford or - especially! - City received an undeserved windfall.   It is a capricious game, to be sure.

Poor refereeing calls that massively transform the outcome of a game ought not to happen at all. We have to accept that they sometimes will; but they really ought not to happen more than a handful of times a year. So,.... to get FOUR instances of this on the opening weekend is a freakish instance of LUCK... and a very poor omen for how this season is going to unfold. I think we've started with pretty much a 10 out of 10 on the Luck-o-Meter. (And I very much fear the dial might go up to 11 once or twice before the end of the season!)

GW1 - What did we learn?

 

Refereeing standards are still leaving a little to be desired - with two players sent off somewhat harshly, but two others unfathomably being allowed to stay on the pitch, a few contentious penalty decisions (Chelsea surely should have had two?!), Anthony Taylor somehow forgetting he had a yellow card in his pocket for most of the game.... and then that monumental cock-up by debutant Sam Barrott over the Eze free-kick.

And while it is refreshing to see the role of VAR being heavily trimmed back this year (the more sane approach to interpreting the Handball Law is a great relief), it looks as though things might have swung too far in the opposite direction, with the VAR officials now appearing to be reluctant to intervene for anything (only one pitchside review suggested to a ref all weekend??). There was a serious lack of clarity and consistency over the last couple of years about when the VAR team could apparently make a call on their own, and when they should direct the on-pitch ref to take a second look at something. And there was an unfortunate element of bias that intruded, with the threshold for recommending an on-pitch review being perceived to be so high that referees were condidtioned to presume that they must have made an error and were oblighed to change their initial call; very, very few ever had the courage to stick to their guns and reafform their original decision in that cirumstance. But those problems could have been ironed out with clearer protocols, and better training for the men in the VAR room and the on-pitch team, so that an on-pitch review could always be seen as a 50-50 call.  Now, alas, it seems that VAR has all but disappeared; we're probably only going to hear from them when the referee has clearly missed an incident altogether (and perhaps not even then some of the time, because they're so damned nervous about drawing more flak from managers and pundits....).  I would hazard a guess that all of this is going to mean considerably fewer penalties this season than last.

City are immediately looking very good; and one wonders if Kovacic and Lewis might have played their way into a more regular role with the team this year, after their hugely impressive opening-day performances.  And as I predicted a week or two ago, Gvardiol played well - but came nowhere near even having opportunities to attempt an attacking contribution. (Managers who bought him this year thinking he was going to be a goal-machine are going to be sorely disillusioned.)

Liverpool also look threatening, with Salah - as usual - quick out of the blocks.  But.... that midfield doesn't work for me. If Endo doesn't impress Slot, I think they desperately need to buy a proper holding midfielder in this window (what happened to that Zubimendi deal?), rather than trying to get by with Gravenberch, Macallister, Jones.  And I also worry about whether Darwin Nunez will work in this system, after (as, alas, seems inevitable eventually, and very possibly after just a handful of games...) Diogo Jota gets injured again. Trent Alexander-Arnold is looking very comfortable under the new manager - but I'm still not convinced that he can justify a 7 million price-tag, when there is significant budget pressure this year from the high prices set on Haaland and Salah (and Palmer and Saka), and on the Arsenal defence.

Lots of positives for Chelsea; Palmer starting well, even if he couldn't get on the scoresheet, and Jackson also looking very sharp (his movement was much better than last year, and he also showed some great passing ability; he still needs to get better at keeping onside though - it was a fairly tight call against his goal, but he was definitely culpable on that one: he wasn't making a quick run in behind, but just standing and waiting for something to happen, looking along the back-line - he should have known that his leading foot was several inches nearer the byline than any of the defenders'...). I found it a bit baffling that Enzo was made captain, though. And I wonder if he will continue to be an invariable starter, since his position is the one most likely to be filled by Dewsbury-Hall, who Maresca obviously rates very hightly. (Surely there must now also be doubts about the future at the club of James, Chilwell, Mudryk.... as well as the publicly disgruntled Sterling.)  And dear me, why is Sanchez starting? They have better options in the squad already.  Maresca prioritises ability on the ball; but Sanchez's shortcomings in that area were why he got dropped from Brighton two years ago; and he has been regularly dreadful at this throughout pre-season, and again on Saturday. Even his sthot-stopping might be a little in question, with him failing to get anywhere near Kovacic's accurate but not particularly venomous drive late in the game...  I find this a very confusing selection.

Arsenal, as I remarked the other day, already look quite terrifying - although there will still be questions about their squad depth if they don't manage to bring in two or three more players before the deadline. At the moment, their overall solidity rests very heavily on the form and fitness of Thomas Partey; so long as he's starting in the 'hole' for them, I think they're likely to be pretty unstoppable.  But.... it did look as if Saka had twisted his knee quite badly, as he did a swift half-turn to crack off a shot from just outside the box early on; and he again looked to be walking very stiffly when he was subbed off late in the game. That looks very like a cartilage problem to me (I've had them myself); I hope not - but that would be a very big loss for them if he gets ruled out for two or three months.

Pretty positive start for Man Utd also, with Mazraoui and Zirkzee looking like they might be two of the best signings of this summer. And if De Ligt helps shore up the centre of defence... I wouldn't bet against Onana being the top FPL keeper this year.

Newcastle obviously have problems at the back at the moment, with Botman and Lascelles still long-term injuries, and Trippier seemingly poised to depart. But the return of Pope is welcome, and Livramento and Hall looked quite bright as the new full-back pairing. Howe's men would surely have prevailed far more comfortably but for that ridiculous sending-off. (I hope they'll be able to get that overturned on appeal, or at least get the suspension reduced - because whatever that was, it wasn't 'violent conduct'. Being without Schar for a month might be calamitous for them.)

Villa weren't quite on it straight away, although there were a few encouraging signs from Rogers and Bailey; and Onana looks like he'll be a valuable acquisition, toughening up their midfield, and giving them an additional goal-threat at set pieces.

Bit of a disappointing start for Palace, and if Mateta's knock might keep him out for a while, that could be a heavy blow. However, if they don't get any more of their major players poached in this window, I think they should be able to continue their momentum from the end of last season and mount a decent charge to get in the European places this year. The result here would probably have been very different if that free-kick had been allowed to stand. (They should surely at least have been allowed to re-take it...) 

A very encouraging opening performance from Fabian Hurzeler's Brighton too - although I wouldn't get too carried away just yet. They still have some of their injury problems lingering on from last year, and struggle to find a best eleven or a good overall balance from such a bloated squad. They lack steel in the middle of the park, having still not found decent replacements for Caicedo and Macallister (and now losing Gross too?). And their impact on Saturday relied heavily on the form of Danny Welbeck - who, unfortunately, can't be expected to stay fit for very long. So.... I think they might again have a bit of a yo-yo year, and will be lucky to finish above 10th.

Brentford progressd the ball very impressively, and didn't look like they will miss Toney (much overrated, in my book, anyway) up front. However, they still have a lot of injury problems, especially at the back; so, keeping well clear of the relegation end of things is probably the summit of their ambitions at the moment. And they need a better keeper: Flekken pulled off a couple of very good saves, but in several other instances looked extremely flakey - nearly giving away a goal with a sloppy pass out early on, and then being caught sleeping by that Eze free-kick (surely an instance where a two-man wall was essential?).

Wolves, I suppose, must hope that Sarabia can find more consistency and provide a decent alternative to the departed Neto. But Kilman is also a big miss at the back, and their usually very solid defence was floundering a bit this weekend. Hwang and Cunha (injured already??) aren't quite firing yet either. I suspect that they, along with West Ham, Brentford, Fulham, and Brighton should be able to establish themselves safely in lower mid-table, but not have the strength-in-depth to push any higher.

Everton look like they might be in all sorts of trouble: they still can't score to save their lives, while the departure of Onana looks like it's going to leave them very vulnerable in the middle. And if they lose Branthwaite, last year's defensive solidity - a bit of a fluke to some extent, anyway - is likely to evaporate. I don't think I'd be betting on Pickford as an FPL keeper again this year: he always does pretty well for saves, but I can't see last year's huge haul of clean sheets being repeated. And they might well spend most of the season deep in the relegation mire again, even without a points deduction.

Bournemouth are inevitably going to struggle without Solanke; but I think I trust Iraola to patch things up and get them playing pretty solidly; but again, they're going to be in the mid-table scrap, not challenging for Europe, I don't think.

Forest, I suspect, will sometimes look quite daunting at home, thanks to the ferocious atmosphere generated by their fans; and they will be intermittently dangerous in attack, with the talent of Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi and Elanga and Wood/Awoniyi at their disposal. But I don't think that will be enough, if they can't start defending better. They've really looked like they deserved to go back down the last two seasons, and I suspect this year they will.  (Sorry, Forest fans.)

The promoted sides so far have looked a huge improvement over last year's crop: both Ipswich and Southampton were well-organised, worked very hard, and showed some threat on the counter-attack - though we've not yet seen any evidence of their finishing ability. And I wonder if they might be 'peaking too early' - pulling out all the stops for their challenging early fixtures, only to wilt in subsequent games rather than find continued improvement...

I haven't seen Leicester play yet, but my guess is that Ipswich will prove to be the best of the three new sides (though perhaps only narrowly), Unfortunately for them, few of the established teams in the division really look all that vulnerable - apart from, at the moment, Everton and Forest... and maybe Wolves or Bournemouth. If I were going to place an early bet on the relegation battle, I'd take Ipswich to displace Forest, and the other two to go straight back down. (Sorry, Leicester and Southampton fans.)

POSTSCRIPT:  It was difficult to tell much from very brief highlights of the Spurs v Leicester game. I have serious doubts about Steve Cooper's competence at Premier League level, so Leicester would probably be my favourites for relegation, unfortunately. However, they seemed to at least defend very resolutely, and were occasionally dangerous going forward (Vardy might become a top pick for the cheap third striker spot?). Spurs aren't fully clicking as yet: Solanke will take a few weeks to find his feet there; and Son seems to have failed to have an impact (literally did not feature in the clips I saw at all; I had to check a match report to find out if he had been on the pitch!). And the way the defence left Vardy completely unmarked on the edge of the six-yard box for several seconds was.... a worry.