Dilemmas of the Week - GW 26 (25/26)

This is a weirdly long gameweek, with Wolves v Arsenal (moved forward from Gameweek 31, when Arsenal will now play against City in the League Cup Final) scheduled for next Wednesday evening - yet bizarrely attached to this gameweek rather than the much more adjacent one following. No, it makes no sense. Those two teams thus both enjoy a double gameweek (although 'enjoy' is probably not the appropriate word for experience Wolves supporters can expect).

Amazingly enough - for about the first time I can ever recall - there appear to be no new injuries emerging from the weekend's games; well, hardly any (only three??). However, since most of the week's press conferences happened on Monday morning, there is a chance that managers were not yet fully apprised of the latest 'bad news'; and, of course, more misfortunes may have unfolded during training on Monday or Tuesday. If I catch any late updates on Tuesday evening, I'll try to add them. (But I live in an advanced timezone, where the FPL deadline for this gameweek isn't until the early hours of the morning. So, I'll probably be in bed long before the 'late-breaking news' breaks... Sorry.)

I am trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 26?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Leandro Trossard had to come off with an injury against Sunderland on Saturday: no further news on that, it seems.

Andrey Santos also left the field with an injury of some sort in the Wolves game (but he's a fairly infrequent starter, anyway).

Forest defender Murillo missed last Friday's game at Leeds with a calf-strain and might still be doubtful.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Dominik Szoboszlai is banned for one game, or his 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity offence' (even though, paradoxically, a 'goal' was still scored....) in the dying moments of Sunday's game against City. Since Joe Gomez appears to be still not fully fit, and Liverpool don't really have any other defenders any more, it seems likely that Curtis Jones will have to take his place on Wednesday as the latest makeshift right-back.

Cristian Romero is starting a three-match 'serious foul play' ban for clogging Caicedo at the weekend (although, to my mind, it was entirely accidental; rash and reckless, yes, but not vicious); no, sorry, it's actually a four-game ban, as he picks up an extra penalty for it being his second red card of the season. Radu Dragusin will probably to deputise for him (and if he or Van de Ven get injured, Spurs will presumably have to recruit one of their ball-boys into the defence...).

West Ham defender Jean-Clair Todibo is serving the second part of his three-game 'violent conduct' ban for having put his hand around Joao Pedro's throat the other week.

And Kevin Schade is serving the last leg of his three-match ban.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Last weekend already somehow feels like a month or so away (ah, all-day drinking during and after the Super Bowl yesterday - that would account for the worse-than-usual memory fog). So, no - no particular stinkers come to mind this time.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Most folks seem to have been using their transfers this week to load up for the Double Gameweek; although I find this quite baffling, as two games for Wolves is arguably more of a disadvantage than an advantage, and it's hard to see any of their players having better prospects than those you have already - even with the potential lift of a second fixture next week. And surely everyone ought to have three Arsenal players already??? (What's worse, the two most popular new picks are Gyokeres and Zubimendi, who - apart from a few players like Eze who might be unlikely to start in both games [but then, so is Gyokeres!] - are absolutely the last two I would pick for this double.)

Cole Palmer is also proving predictably popular with The Sheep (though not as popular as perhaps might have been expected, owing to the distracting gravity-well of the Arsenal double gameweek), having gained over 200,000 new owners since his 20-point haul at the weekend. I am one of Palmer's biggest fans, but I still didn't think his all-around performance looked all that sharp against Wolves: two of his goals were penalties (and pretty soft awards, at that); and he himself complained of being still not fully fit in his post-game interview. His inclusion requires a major squad revamp, as he'd currently be the only player priced above 9 million worth having (apart from Haaland), and thus everyone would surely have to make at least one or two additional transfers to shuffle the budget around to accommodate him. And I don't think he's worth that trouble, yet; he looks like he still needs at least one or two more weeks.

Diogo Dalot is the one player who's caught my eye - as having steadily better and better, more and more influential games in the last few weeks.

Oh, and Brentford's Dango Ouattara had an absolute banger of a game at the weekend.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

Sheep Picks (19)

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are dangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

Well, gosh, yes, it's 10 weeks or so since I last did one of these; and (nothing personal, Arsenal fans!) the last one was.... Ebere Eze!

This week's entry in the series should be very short and sweet. Naturally enough, folks in FPL-land get a bit excited when the league leaders get an early double gameweek, and want to make sure they are loaded up on their players for it. But.... everyone should really have had three Arsenal players already.

And if you were going to change one of your Arsenal selections, or bring in an extra one, especially for this Double Gameweek 26,... these are absolutely the last two I would have chosen! And yet, and yet,.... my oldest friend, and chief antagonist in FPL - who is, frankly, a bit of a klutz at the game - has just bought both of them. And he's not alone: apart from the obviously popular defenders, Gabriel and Timber (who didn't own them already?!), Martin Zubimendi and Viktor Gyokeres have been among the most popular Arsenal acquisitions. Zubimendi was transferred in over 400,000 times in the last couple of days, more than doubling his ownership; Gyokeres has gained closer to 500,000 new owners!

Martin Zubimendi is a fine player. And I actually feel that his absence - if he should get injured - would be more disastrous to Arsenal's title hopes than any other player's. But that doesn't mean he's worth having for FPL. Yes, he just picked up a fine pair of goals in his last two league outings, but... goals for a central defensive midfielder are a rare treat, not a reliable asset; he's probably already exceeded his quota for the season., and should not be expected to get any more in this double-fixture. Assists? Even less likely: only one - aberrant - example so far. Even more frustratingly for those pinning their hopes on him, he's not even that much of a magnet for the handy new 'defensive points'; in fact, he's one of those who almost always comes up short of the threshold for them, regularly puts in a decent shift but is only accorded 6, 7, 8 'defensive contributions', well short of the required match total of 12 such involvements. He's only actually won 'defensive points' 3 or 4 times so far this season; so, again, it's a bit of a long shot that he'll contribute to your points total that way. He is, at least, almost certain to start both games (though, who knows the mind of Mikel; maybe he'll give Damsgaard a runout in one of them?); but he's also almost certain to be the lowest points-scorer among all Arsenal players who do play in both games. And he is, thus, an absolutely bonkers FPL pick.

Viktor Gyokeres is a marginally less unfathomable choice, because at least he's a primary goalscorer (though, ahem, not as regular as Zubimendi in the last two games!), and he has shown signs in the past month or so of recovering some of his confidence in front of goal. However, he is ridiculously expensive at 8.8 million quid; when there are other forwards like Thiago, Ektike, and recently Joao Pedro, who look in much better form... for less money, it's pretty difficult to justify getting him in even for a short-term sell-and-buy-back, just to try to exploit this week's double-fixture. Moreover, he's not even a certain starter: good as he's looked in the last few games, Jesus and Havertz have arguably looked even better; and Arteta does like to rotate quite a lot in the attacking positions - so, I'd say it's rather uncertain that any of the forward roster will start in both games.

Gabriel is, obviously, well out in front as Arsenal's most promising points-provider. Timber is probably the next best option (any of the defenders would be, if they could be counted on to start: but only Timber has been an ever-present of late - even Saliba has had a few injury issues, and isn't as much of an attacking threat); and then Rice. If you have three Arsenal players (though that's always risky, even with such a pre-eminent club), those should have been the three. If you didn't, the one you brought in should have been one of these three. (Raya is a guaranteed starter, and has a good chance of at least one clean sheet from two games against weaker opponents; but that's true of his defenders too, and they have some chance of picking up 'defensive points' and/or bonus points too,... and maybe even an attacking contribution [though that is not to be relied upon, even from an aerial monster like Gabi!]; Raya is very, very rarely kept busy enough to earn 'saves' points - or bonus points, unless a game ends in a goalless draw! - so his 'points ceiling' is basically capped at 6 per game, he's very, very unlikely to be able to outscore his defenders.)

And if I were going to try something different for this double gameweek, fancying the chance of at least one more free-scoring performance from this notoriously constipated Arsenal side in what should be a pair of relatively undemanding fixtures (though no opponent should be underestimated: Brentford's form has been really impressive of late, and Wolves can create some attacking danger, especially through the very lively youngster Mané, even if they're still often very flakey at the back), I would go for an attacking midfielder - most probably Madueke (who has been the most regular starter lately, and in the best form; even if Saka is 'fit' again, I doubt if he'll be rushed back into starting action; and even if he is, I think Madueke would keep his start, and be moved over to the left flank), though a case might also be made for Trossard, or perhaps even Eze (who hasn't been a prolific provider for Arsenal, but might get two starts, if Odegaard is unavailable), or Martinelli (who has been on a bit of a scoring streak just lately, and might be worth having a punt on, even if he's only used as a super-sub!).

But Gyokeres and Zubimendi - are you kidding me??????

[Well, that was a bit like shooting fish in a barrel, wasn't it? As I'd fancied, key midfield assets like Madueke, Saka, and Rice performed decently, despite the ultimately poor results for the team. Zubimendi at least scraped one set 'defensive points', just barely (and in the Wolves game, rather than the Brentford one!!), to finish with a bog-average 6 points. Gyokeres did at least start both games (which wasn't at all certain; and, arguably, not a smart call on Mikel Arteta's part), but picked up a booking against Brentford, and utterly failed to impose himself against Wolves - being lucky to survive just a few minutes beyond the hour mark before being pulled out of the game: hence, a dismal 3 points.

But I can't claim any great 'Nostradamus' powers on this one. It was absolutely bloody obvious that Arsenal might be starting to feel the nerves at this stage of the season; and that, even if they didn't, Zubimendi and Gyokeres were absolutely the two least promising of their players to have in your squad.]

Once again, the siren call of a Double Gameweek

With Arsenal suddenly having a Double Gameweek scheduled this week (only confirmed in the last few days, after they booked their spot in the League Cup Final last Tuesday), a lot of folks are getting frantically excited about the possibility of playing a bonus chip in GW26.

I had been tempted to title this quick post on the prospect, The Double Gameweek Delusion. I have written before that the value of Double Gameweeks for a bonus chip play is massively over-estimated by the FPL community - it's a misguided superstition that has been elevated to the status of a cult. However....

Well, as a Bench Boost opportunity, this coming Gameweek certainly looks like a waste of time. You should only really count the points returns of your weakest players (the ones you properly should have left on your bench: many people try to delude themselves into thinking they've done well from the chip by stacking the bench with some of their best players!). If a doubling player is worth having, he's probably worth starting; hence, you won't generally have doubling players on your bench unless almost your entire squad are enjoying double-fixtures - and that's not going to happen unless we have a really BIG Double Gameweek (which are almost uknown these days: we won't get one at all unless all the fixtures postponed from FA Cup Semi-Finals weekend get rearranged to the same gameweek; and that won't be until the very end of the season - a dangerously long time to hold on to your bonus chips, for such an uncertain hope of any advantage...). Here, it's difficult to see value in any Wolves players, even playing twice. (Even if they should produce a marginal advantage over your regular squad players with their lone fixtures, it's very unlikely to outweigh the hassle of using up transfers - which should always be seen as having some effective 'points cost' - to move them in and out again.)  And your Arsenal players obviously aren't going to be on your bench! So, there is no Bench Boost opportunity here.

As a Triple Captain prospect, though.... perhaps there is a case to be made.

Gabriel looks like being the most popular choice. Timber might be an equally strong option. And some might fancy Declan Rice, who's been their most consistent source of 'assists' (as well as producing an occasional goal!) - although his form has looked a little muted of late. And a bolder ploy could be to gamble on an attacking player like Madueke or Trossard or Havertz (the main argument against being that there is much more rotation risk in the attacking positions).

In general, goalscoring midfielders (who get more points than forwards for the same attacking contribution, and might pick up additional points for a clean sheet and/or 'defensive contributions'), or forwards in such freakishly good form that they might well return a multi-goal haul, are the best options as captain or Triple Captain.

But Arsenal are having an exceptional season: their defence is miles better than anyone else's - picking up a clean sheet once every two games, and only conceding an average of 0.65 goals per game. Thus, they do seem to have a very strong prospect of picking up at least one, possibly two clean sheets from this pair of games. And, of course, there's a chance that a defender could earn 'defensive points' or bonus points as well (although that's probably a fairly remote prospect: you rarely earn 'defensive points' against weaker teams; and defenders don't often earn bonus points in a game where their team has scored a few goals...), and perhaps even chip in an attacking contribution (although that's rather a lot to hope for from a defender, even a comparative goals-and-assists monster like Gabriel).

If you choose an Arsenal defender who starts both games, it's reasonable to expect that they should return at least 8 points this gameweek, and perhaps in the 10-15 point range. That's a pretty decent return on the captain's armband.

However, betting on clean sheets is always a precarious hope: even the weakest teams can occasionally surprise you with an uncommonly spirited performance (Brentford, particularly, but also Wolves of late, are actually pretty dangerous in attack), and late goals can appear out of nowhere....

Punting the TC on Gabriel or Timber this week is a high-floor/low(ish)-ceiling kind of play; it's a fairly conservative option for the chip - one that gives you an unusually strong chance of having a player who'll produce an 8- or 10-point gameweek, but a fairly remote likelihood of a really big score.

There are going to be at least TWO more Double Gameweeks this season. So, bolder FPL managers will probably hang on for one of those to play this chip. (Manchester United could still get one, if Brentford reach the semi-finals of the FA Cup; that could make a Triple Captain bet on Bruno Fernandes or Bryan Mbeumo very tempting...)

But going for an Arsenal player this week is a very alluring bird-in-the-hand option: it almost certainly won't produce the biggest Triple Captain return of the season, but it does seem to offer a much stronger-than-average prospect of a decent 8-10 point return. (NB  Again, people like to brag about the total points they received from their Triple Captain pick, tripling the number of his actual game contribution. But, of course, he would have played for you anyway, and he would have been your captain anyway; so the actual value of the chip is only his basic points return - the extra points that you got from making him Triple Captain rather than just captain.)

But be warned... the particular hazard of this Double Gameweek is how unusually protracted it is: Arsenal's two games are nearly a full week apart, and with an FA Cup tie against Wigan intervening. There is a not insignificant chance that an Arsenal player you bet your Triple Captaincy on here will get injured before the Wolves game next Wednesday....

So, are you feeling LUCKY??

WHAT?? Early Deadline warning!!

 

Darn it - I had thought we were due for a nice little rest from the incessant demands-for-attention of Fantasy Football, since next weekend is given over to the 4th Round of the FA Cup... Alas, it had slipped my attention on this occasion that, in order to fit all the League matches within our too-short number of available weeks, we have to cram in another midweek gameweek this week.

There's a raft of games tomorrow, Tuesday evening (early hours of Wednesday in my timezone - making it impossible to wait until close to the deadline to make squad changes...); the next FPL deadline is 6pm (UK time) on the Tuesday 10th of February.

Never a moment's peace....

And don't forget, this is now a Double Gameweek for Wolves and Arsenal, as their Gameweek 31 match (when Arsenal will be playing City in the League Cup Final) has been moved forward to Wednesday the 18th of February - and, although that's a full 6 days after the last of the originally scheduled GW26 games and obviously far more adjacent to the following weekend's fixtures,.... it's been declared to be part of Gameweek 26, rather than Gameweek 27.... for reasons known only to the League's mysterious scheduling minions.

I'll try to put out one of my usual updates on injury news and such this afternoon (but I might not manage it!).

Just once a year - watching A FUNNY-SHAPED BALL

I noted at this time last year that, while I do not think it remotely bears comparison with the grace and artistry of real football, I do nevertheless have a longstanding soft spot for the American gridiron game. And I confess this weakness has become bound up with my other great moral frailty - an occasional fondness for drinking heavily at breakfast time (usually only on this one occasion each year, I promise!). I look forward to the Super Bowl every year because, when living in East Asia, the game gets under way for me at around 6.30 or 7am - and this is just such an exquisite time of day to crack open one's first beer. (With any luck, one of these - since I've finally tracked down a store that fairly regularly seems to have it in cans.)

Super Bowl LX (and I do love that they're doing their bit to keep Roman numerals alive!) is between the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks tomorrow morning (in my part of the world). I have not the slightest shred of attachment to either team (and have hardly seen anything of the games this season!), so.... I will pledge my allegiance according to the time-honoured principles of random sentiment and playful rancour. I spent a very pleasant few days in Seattle back in the 1990s (although, true to the city's reputation, it did piss with rain most of the time), and I've had a bit of a soft spot for it ever since (though I've never previously taken an interest in any of their sports teams). Extra bonus points to the place for being the setting of Frasier!! And one of my old drinking buddies from my Beijing days is a diehard Pats fan - so, it will be fun to root against him during the game. (If I had the money, I'd flit off to join him for the event. He's going to be watching it in a beach bar in Thailand - lucky sod! Only a few hundred miles away; but in my current state of penury, it might as well be 10,000 miles....)

Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 25

 

Not too many new injury worries or unexpected selection woes this week... What a nice change!!

These weekly 'summaries' have been getting a bit too involved - and excessively time-consuming for me! - so I've been aiming to keep them briefer recently. I made just about zero progress on that resolution for the first few weeks, but.... this time, I'm going to try something new: just a tabulation of the major types of 'lucky' incidents. 

I will try to resist any extended commentary (although I probably will still indulge in a few diatribes about any particularly egregious penalty or handball incidents).

Red cards awarded: Romero's sending-off just before the half-hour at Old Trafford was not obviously unjust, but it was, for me, on the harsher end of things. It was misfortuitous that Casemiro's toe-studs had got stuck in the turf just before the Argentinian caught him on the inside of his ankle and so caused his foot to roll over so painfully; the actual contact was really not that hard. And we have seen many similar incidents in the last year or two dismissed as "having insufficient force to seriously endanger the opponent" or as "being an accidental contact from a natural follow-through". I think the Argentinian was a bit rash to have such a vigorous swish at a ball that was about to not be there any more; but it wasn't a really bad foul.

Red cards not awarded: Alisson's late penalty-foul on Nunes was not in any doubt; but the keeper had been fortunate in the first-half when he took the ball off a breaking Marmoush with a very high foot, and the Egyptian forward flinched out of the way of contact; if he had been caught, even slightly, that would have been a certain red card. Not a wrong decision - but a very lucky near-miss.

Penalties awarded: The handball decision against Jacob Murphy was very harsh: his arm was close to his side, not moving towards the ball - and the shot was fired directly at him from close range. If we accepted that blocking a goal-bound shot should always be a 'strict liability' offence, then fine - but I don't think that's the rule at the moment. If there's supposed to be some 'unnatural position' culpability element in the offence, then this looked like a bad call. A penalty for Newcastle seemed 'fair' on the balance of play (especially as they'd had a very harsh one awarded against them earlier), but Kayode's contact on the back of Guimaraes's leg was light and accidental - there was really nothing in that.

Both of Chelsea's awards were probably correct, but a bit soft: a slight - accidental! - treading on Joao Pedro's toe for the first, and a very, very light push (and only just barely over the line!) in his back for the second.

Penalties not awarded: Cunha suffered a shin-to-shin or knee-to-knee contact from Pape Sarr in the first half that tripped him on the edge of the box: not a bad foul, but very defiinitely a foul - and it looked like the point of contact was probably right over the outer edge of the line. It deserved a full consideration from VAR, which it seemed not to get. 

Two Sunderland players appeared to get wrestled to the ground in the Arsenal penalty area at a set-piece, in the final action of the first-half; it should have been looked at by VAR, but apparently wasn't - as the referee immediately blew the whstle to take the players off the field.

Marmoush surely should have had a penalty after 15 minutes at Anfield: Konate had both hands on him, and put his leg across - the combination of which threw him off balance as he entered the box. The contact was, yes, brief and light; but it was plainly deliberate and illegal, and more than enough to bring the man down. The only question should have been whether the contact had 'started outside the box' (possibly; but the consequential part of it was clearly on or just over the line). Somehow, the VAR team seemed to find this incident unworthy of their consideration. In the second-half, Salah was hauled down by a tug on the shirt from Guehi: the holding had certainly begun outside the box, but continued into it - and it will always be a bit of a grey area as to where the 'decisive moment' of such an illegal contact occurred. To me, that one looked like a penalty.

Tight/dubious offsides: Gabriel Jesus's break from the half-way line (which nearly produced a second goal barely a minute after Zubimendi gave them the lead) was very, very narrowly offside (and yet again, the SAOT graphic was a bit unconvincing - somehow making the margin look three times as big as it had to the naked eye!). This move ended in a penalty award from Sam Barrott when Jesus was nudged off the ball by Ballard while trying to round Roefs. Didn't look like a penalty to me; but VAR never looked at it, because of the prior offside. (I worry that they perhaps wouldn't have looked at it, even if Jesus had been adjudged onside, because they'd become too preoccupied with that issue....)

Surprise omissions/early substitutions/injuries: Udogie had to go off with a knock after just 54 minutes.

Noni Madueke was pulled of just shy of the hour.

Nuno dropped Areola in goal, in favour of Mads Hermansen - a potential blow to over 250,000 Fantasy managers (although most of them, perhaps, will only have the French keeper as a back-up option rather than their preferred starter).

Rosenior rested Reece James in favour of Malo Gusto.

Strand Larsen did indeed start straight away for Palace, replacing Mateta. Van Hecke is apparently struggling with a previously undisclosed hamstring problem, while Minteh and Welbeck were surprisingly left on the bench.

Cherki and Foden were this week's victims of Pep Roulette (and Foden did not look happy about it), as Marmoush and Ait-Nouri surprisingly got starts against Liverpool. 

Near misses: Calvert-Lewin smashed a header against the crossbar early on in Friday night's game at Elland Road.

Mbeumo's best chance of the game, a hooked half-volley from Diallo's lay-off, flew a bit too high. Cunha and Simons also had good 20-yard efforts fly just wide in Saturday's opening game.

Janelt scrambled a Wissa effort off the line - and an early two-goal lead for the home side would surely have changed the outcome of the match; indeed, Janelt went down the other end and headed an equaliser shortly afterwards. 

Mateus Mané whacked a 17-yard curler against the post.

Smith Rowe beat Pickford with a 20-yard dipper but saw it slam against the crossbar, while Chukwueze later unleashed an absolute screamer from 25 yards which grazed the top of the bar. In the same game, Jake O'Brien headed a corner against the post.

Big misses/big saves: Fernandes's floated chip found Sesko unmarked in the middle of the box in the final seconds of the game, but he headed softly straight at the keeper. Ektike fluffed a rather similar effort from a Salah cross against City.

Kelleher produced the 'Save of the Day' from a fierce cross-shot from Thiaw. Donnarumma's crucial late save from Macallister's long-range effort was perhaps a bit more showy than it needed to be - but still very good.

Outstanding goals: A 20-yard pinger from Zubimendi for Arsenal's first: perhaps very slightly mishit, but fizzed low, with a wicked in-swing to beat Roefs and thud in off the foot of the near post. And that 33-yard rocket of a free-kick from Szoboszlai!

Strangely, that was the only really striking effort this week. In most recent weeks we've had 3, 4, 5 bangers from outside the area (January's 'Goal of the Month' selection on the BBC was just ridiculous!!); but none of that this time, despite there being a rather higher number of goals overall (29).

Outstanding performances: Cole Palmer - suddenly recapturing the magic! Only about 12% of FPL managers own him at the moment: they must be very happy (though I suspect an awful lot of those are 'zombie accounts' that bought him at the start of the season, but soon stopped playing the game - rather than people who took a hopeful punt on bringing him back in for the present short run of relatively easy fixtures, before he'd recovered his form...). Although, yes, two of them were - slightly dubious - penalties... And he said afterwards that he still isn't "proper fit".

Big mistakes: NONE, remarkably.

Bad luck: Very unfortunate for Vitaly Mykolenko to have Pickford's save of a Raul effort ricochet off him into the goal! In the same game, Leno was perhaps even more unlucky to have a corner bounce in off his fist as he failed to get around the blocking Everton player.

Rayan Cherki's 'goal' in the dying seconds at Anfield would have been slightly lucky if it had stood, since he clearly intended a through-ball rather than an attempt on the goal left unguarded by Alisson's desperate foray into the attacking third. But equally, it seemed rather unlucky that it was disallowed because of a holding foul on Haaland by Szoboszlai (which inevitably earned him a sending-off, almost certainly the latest of the entire season...). And indeed, but for that foul, it would have been Haaland's goal. So, there were all kinds of massive FPL points fluctuations across the multiverse in that little 10-second fiasco!!

FPL weirdness: Dalot doing better on the BPS than Fernandes this week seems a trifle odd. And we have a rather low number of players earning 'defensive points' this week (although the top performers on this metric, Garner, Anderson, and Caicedo came through again): only 29, I think (4 of them from West Ham?!).

Unexpected results: Leeds's win over Forest on Friday night was not 'unexpected' in itself, though the ease of it, and the eventual margin of victory were; this was a game where the visiting team strangely failed to turn up.

A hell of a ding-dong between Newcastle and Brentford, with the home side ultimately very unlucky to lose it - as they got punished for Trippier going to sleep in the closing minutes.

The FPL 'Team of the Week' is again superlatively weird - with Palmer, Dalot, and Guimaraes (and, eventually, Haaland...) the only members so far that anybody owns! It was also shaping up to be yet another dismally low gameweek average, but a good haul from Haaland in the final game dragged it up to a respectable 57 points. Both of Chelsea's penalty awards were pretty soft, and the penalties for each side in the thrilling Newcastle v Brentford encounter both looked unjust, while Salah may have been a tad unlucky to miss out on being given one at Anfield. There were a couple of other potential penalties that should have been looked at by VAR, but seemed not to be. Although an uncommonly good weekend for the refereeing, there have been enough other odd events already this weekend to make it this time at least a 5 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.

Is the title race 'over'.....?

We all thought it might be such a thrilling battle for the Premier League crown this year! 

Liverpool had finally broken City's long and rather tedious dominance of the top spot, and looked like they should have a good chance of defending the title in style. The young Chelsea squad seemed to have taken a massive step forward with their impressive triumph in the summer's Club World Cup tournament. City, of course, were not to be written off, despite a few teething troubles as Pep laboured to reconstruct their approach to the game. And Arsenal keep relentlessly getting harder and harder to beat each year. Perhaps even Manchester United, after their summer acquisition of a daunting new attacking trident of Cunha, Sesko, and Mbeumo, might be able to start challenging the top of the table again? And a few other teams had shown themselves capable enough last season to at least be able to nibble at the heels of these big boys, and perhaps nick a Champions League qualifying place off any of them who faltered from their highest standards - Bournemouth, Palace, Villa, Newcastle....

But it just hasn't panned out like that. Chelsea, unsettled by critical injuries (Colwill, perhaps, just as big a miss for them as Palmer), have been weirdly inconsistent, and have suffered a rancorous managerial departure in mid-season. Manchester United shackled themselves to the millstone of Amorim's perverse tactical rigidity for six months longer than they should have done, and are only just now starting to show what they should have been capable of all along. City, struggling with so many different issues of tactics and personnel, are once more very good - but not quite consistent enough, or robust enough in defence, to mount a powerful challenge. Liverpool miserably failed to integrate any of their expensive new signings, and are only slowly starting to find their feet again in mid-season. And the chasing pack have disappointed too: after promising starts, Bournemouth and Palace have slowly fallen apart, as their best players are progressively stripped from them; Newcastle continue to be plagued by injuries and inconsistency and weak away form; only Villa, recovering impressively from a dreadful start, had briefly threatened to break into the outer fringes of the title scrap - but they were probably punching above their weight somewhat during that extraordinarily successful run, and are likely to fall back quite a way, now that they've suddenly lost their entire central midfield - Tielemans, Kamara, and McGinn - to long-term injuries in January.

At the moment, Arsenal are looking set to win the title by default - not because they're incomparably brilliant (they are pretty damn good; but they have a lot of flaws too), but because none of their expected rivals have been able to step up to the challenge so far.

I - and most neutrals, I'm sure - would like to see a closer battle: one or more of the rivals pushing the presumptive Champions right up to the final weekend. But it doesn't look like that's going to happen.

Arsenal under Arteta have become notorious for suffering a 'winter wobble', a significant, sometimes calamitous dip in form at some point around the turn of the year. And they've just had another one this year. But we hardly noticed. 

They lost each of their preferred starting defenders for a spell, and, on occasions, the back-up players in those positions too - so that, through December and January they were rarely able to field a settled back-line. For a team that depends so heavily on its defensive cohesion, this lack of continuity could have been disastrous; but it wasn't - they had a few struggles, but somehow they came through. 

It's been in attack where they've often looked to have more serious shortcomings lately. And even their fans are starting to fret about their low number of chances created, the extreme shortage of goals from open play. But they've repeatedly found a way to power through: games they looked like they could lose, they somehow managed to win after all; games that they were losing, they somehow saved a point from. During what might, to their fans, and probably to Mikel Arteta, have seemed like a fairly terrible run of games over the past two months, they lost to Villa at the beginning of December and to a rejuvenated Manchester United in that great game the other week, and were held to draws by Liverpool and Forest.

That was this year's 'winter wobble': they dropped 10 points.

All of their rivals dropped as many or more.

I feel City's rather pitiful second-half collapse against Spurs last weekend may prove to have been the decisive moment of the season. Pep's men were so comfortably on top in the first half, they really should have been ahead by a landslide by the interval. But they somehow got pegged back to a draw - allowing Arsenal to stretch their lead to 7 points.

Now, 7 points isn't that much of a gap, with just over a third of the season still to be played.

But Arsenal are so good defensively this year, it's difficult to imagine where they might drop points. Most of their tougher opponents for the second half of the season are already behind them. Only a visit to The Etihad in mid-April looks likely to be a major test of their confidence. And even if they are feeling under a bit of pressure by then, or start to feel it because of a good result for City in that game, their run-in to the end of the season is one of the softest we've ever seen: they have a sequence of fixtures in May that they probably ought to be able to win with their youth team.

And City, Chelsea, Liverpool, alas, are just not looking strong enough to be able to mount a sustained challenge. At this point, if I were going to bet on anyone else to win the title other than Arsenal,.... it would be Manchester United! They're 12 points behind, which is a very big ask. But I have a feeling they might just about be capable of making up that ground now; the others, I'm afraid, don't look like they are.

But yes, it is silly to talk of the season being 'over' when there are still 14 games to play for everyone (that's why I used the inverted commas). Arsenal might get hit by multiple injuries to key players again (they're rather more vulnerable in other areas of the pitch than they are in defence: Rice and Zubimendi are pretty much irreplaceable). Nerves might get the better of them, if someone manages to close the gap going in to the last few gameweeks. The physical and psychological toll of going deep in three or four different competitions might gradually overwhelm them.

But it is going to take something pretty damn drastic for them to lose that lead now. And I doubt if it's going to happen.

But we'll see.....

Dilemmas of the Week - GW 25 (25/26)

Only the fairly uneventful League Cup Semi-Final Second Leg games have cluttered our midweek this time, so hopefully there should not have been too many more new injuries since the weekend. But doubtless there will have been some... And - oh damn! - that rescheduled Wolves v Arsenal game that's being brought forward from GW31 because Arsenal reached the League Cup Final.... is actually next week; (giving us an unwelcome early deadline for GW26): those two teams will play again on Tuesday evening, which might cause a bit of rotation uncertainty for Arsenal.

[Because I'm once again trying to do this roundup on Friday afternoon (my Friday afternoon; still early morning back in the UK), there is a chance that a lot of injury news won't have emerged yet. And we've got a Friday evening game deadline this week, ahead of the Leeds v Forest kick-off tonight. I'll try to add updates, if it transpires that there is more bad news in today's press conferences.]

I am trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 25?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Mikel Merino, who had to come off with a knock to the foot in the Manchester United match in Gameweek 23, was discovered to have fractured a bone and needed surgery on it this week; he's now expected to be out for at least 10-12 weeks. He's never looked like a regular starter, and so shouldn't have been in any FPL squads, but it does mean that Arsenal's midfield cover will be a little thinner if they incur any further injuries in that area. Rather more devastating for FPL  (although, owing to relatively muted returns so far this season, he was only in 12.5% of teams, a third or a quarter of what you'd usually expect), Bukayo Saka pulled out of last week's game after feeling a muscle problem during the warm-up; it's still unclear how serious that problem might be - which is a particular headache in FPL with Arsenal suddenly having a Double Gameweek next week, and Madueke having looked very impressive in deputising for Saka. If you have Saka, do you stick with him, hoping he might recover; or do you bring in Madueke as a third Arsenal pick now?? Martin Odegaard is also suffering with some kind of muscle issue; he was only used in the second-half last weekend, but felt some discomfort after the game, and was omitted in the League Cup tie against Chelsea on Tuesday as a result. (If this problem doesn't resolve quickly, Ebere Eze might suddenly become a tempting pick for the Double Gameweek...)

The recently impressive Yasin Ayari is going to be missing for Brighton this week, because of a minor shoulder injury.

Jamie Gittens, getting a rare start against West Ham last week, had to come off midway through the first-half with a hamstring problem - which now seems likely to sideline for him for 2-3 months. Estevao, who was absent last week because he'd had to fly back to Brazil owing to a family crisis, is apparently now back and could be available to play against Wolves. Pedro Neto also missed Tuesday's Cup game against Arsenal with a knock that leaves him still doubtful for the weekend. And Reece James is apparently struggling with a knock too.

Jean-Philippe Mateta was hoping to complete a deadline-day transfer to AC Milan, but failed his medical check owing to an ongoing knee niggle that's apparently been troubling him for some months. It has been reported that he might now undergo immediate surgery to try to fix the problem, so that he can pursue that move again in the summer.

Vitaly Mykolenko was absent last weekend because of a training knock.

Anton Stach is likely to be out this week and next because of a hip issue.

Rayan Cherki (knock) and Bernardo Silva (tight hamstring) were withdrawn early against Spurs last week, and missed the midweek Cup game against Newcastle - but might possibly be back in contention this weekend.

Lewis Miley has a knee problem, which kept him on the bench last weekend and out of the squad altogether in the League Cup on Wednesday. And Anthony Gordon had to retire early in Wednesday's cup tie with a tight hamstring.

Matz Sels came off at half-time last weekend with a groin injury. Since the impressive Stefan Ortega has just been transferred in from City, it seems likely he'll lose the start in the Forest goal even if he is fit again.

Djed Spence missed the City game last week with a calf-strain.

Ladislav Krejci was missing last weekend due to an illness, and no word yet on whether he's been able to rejoin training.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Kevin Schade is starting a three-match 'violent conduct' ban for his petulant poke of the foot into Matty Cash's midriff last week (one of those incidents that helps delineate the boundary of "Oh, come on - was that really violent???"). Jean-Clair Todibo is starting a three-match ban for throttling Joao Pedro at the end of last week's game, and seems set to have that extended to at least 5 games out. Amazingly, though, his teammates Adama Traore and Konstantinos Mavropanos, who were guilty of even more egregious offences in that messy affray, only received yellow cards from Anthony Taylor, and no retroactive disciplinary action against them seems to have been instituted.

Neco Williams has to miss a game for his goal-line 'Save of the Weekend' last week.

As I just mentioned above, Matz Sels (an injury doubt anyway, due to a groin strain which forced him to withdraw at half-time last week) seems very likely to lose his start at Forest to the newly-signed Stefan Ortega.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

I am losing confidence in Newcastle, alas: they barely even have 11 first-team players they can start any more, and have been looking very, very flakey. If Bruno Guimaraes is still unable to start for them, they don't look like they can win against anyone; and they could take an abolute battering against an improving Brentford this week. Harvey Barnes is the only player there who's shown any really good form lately, anyway; and he can't be relied upon as an invariable starter. And I haven't had any confidence in Spurs for a long time now; but maybe, just maybe their second-half turnaround against City last week could prove to be the transitional moment of their season?? It's probably saved Thomas Frank's job for at least a couple more weeks; but I'm not at all optimistic about any general upswing in performance from them - they're still all avoid-like-the-plague picks for me.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Hugo Ekitike and Florian Wirtz are looking very good at the moment; although I'd venture you probably only want to have one of them; and, for me, Ekitike's form looks the more robust (and there's less competition - virtually none at the moment! - for FPL selection among the forwards). Matheus Cunha is also looking very, very hot again - possibly now a better prospect even than Bruno Fernandes (impressively consistent this season, which he hasn't been, in FPL terms, for a good many years: his 'blanks' have been so few this year that you can safely treat him as a long-term hold) or Bryan Mbeumo (who looks the more natural, more regular goalscorer - but seems not to thrive when Cunha is on the pitch with him from the start).

I noted yesterday that a number of the midseason transfers might at least be worth keeping an eye on. Tammy Abraham at Villa and Jorgen Strand Larsen at Palace could have a valuable impact for those clubs; although they'll probably take a little time to settle in, and neither are bringing any strong recent form with them (and Abraham might not get many starts, if Ollie Watkins's thigh injury proves to be nothing serious). Angel Gomes at Wolves and Douglas Luiz returning to Villa are probably not going to be worth having in FPL themselves, but might be able to bolster their new clubs' midfields enough to slightly improve the points-potential of some of their teammates. Surely the two most intriguing prospects among the new arrivals, though, are Pascal Gross (who seems likely to get regular starts in an advanced central midfield role, where he could pick up quite a few attacking contributions - rather than as a holding player or as a makeshift right-back, as he so often was in the latter days of his previous spell at the club) and Stefan Ortega (so long as he immediately gets promoted to being Forest's first-choice keeper; I think he ought to be, but they've got two other strong options - and you never can tell about these things).

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

A little bit of Zen (80)

 

"Emancipate yourself from mental slavery!

  None but ourselves can free our mind."

Bob Marley - Redemption Song

Today is 'Bob Marley Day' - his birthday providing a happy pretext for a worldwide party in celebration of the life and legacy of the great reggae musician.

In addition to being a hopeless Plastic Paddy, I am also somewhat of a Replicant Rasta (mainly as a result of a couple of very formative visits to Jamaica in my young adult life), and I generally like to make this date in the calendar one of my (increasingly rare) days of indulgence. For St Patrick's, we can go wild on the whiskey and the Guinness and the colcannon and then more whiskey; whereas on Marley Day, we look to rum and Red Stripe (or nearest available equivalent) and jerk chicken, and then maybe some medicinal herb*.... But on both days, of course, it's mainly about the music: Bob and Shane MacGowan have shaped my life... almost more than Lao Tzu and Epictetus.

[* Well, the esteemed Dr W.H. McIntosh assured me that it could cure my asthma.]

Pick of the Transfers

Now that the mid-season transfer window is finally done with,.... have there been any deals done which might be particularly exciting for FPL?

NO, probably not, really.

The only 'big name' signings, both wrapped up very early, were City's poaching of Antoine Semenyo from Bournemouth and Marc Guehi from Palace. 

Now, many naive FPL managers assume that a good player moving to a better club automatically means that he's going to become an even better prospect in FPL. Sadly, this is not always the case.

Our great dilemma now is whether these two players, who had looked like very strong picks so far with their original clubs, will continue to be worth their place in an FPL team. I'm very dubious about that. They might be OK, maybe even somewhat better than OK; but they almost certainly won't be quite as productive as they were in the first half of the season. At Palace, Guehi, as the main 'progresser' in a back-three, often enjoyed the licence to push far upfield, and sometimes even join in with the attack; and this was why he'd shown such a burgeoning propensity for picking up the occasional goal over the last year or so. With City, as part of a more conventional centre-back pair (and particularly in a team who are struggling to stay tight at the back, and struggling to maintain their title ambitions), he's probably going to be pretty locked down as the last line of defence, hence not getting many, or any, of those goalscoring opportunities any more. And I seriously doubt if City, the way they look at the moment, will keep as many clean sheets from here on as Palace did during the opening third of the season.

Likewise, Semenyo was starting to thrive on being the main man at Bournemouth: not just their most consistent and threatening creative player, but increasingly their primary source of goals too. (Last season, he'd blown a bit hot and cold, was too often ceding the limelight to Kluivert, Tavernier, Ouattara, Evanilson; at the beginning of the new term, he looked like he'd really taken a step forward to accepting the responsibility to lead the side's attacking efforts week-in, week-out.) Now, he's just a bit-part player in a team that has lots of other stars, and lots of other sources of goals. He has looked very good in his first few games for City, and is relishing having an immediate regular start. But this might be somewhat fortuitous, as his arrival coincided with an injury to Jeremy Doku. I fear it's highly likely that, when everyone's fit, Semenyo will find himself in a three-way rotation with Doku and Cherki for the two wide attacking positions (and, indeed, there's a chance that other players like Marmoush or Foden or Ait-Nouri may also occasionally claim one of those spots); he might get more than his share of those starts, and he might often produce some nice points when he does start - but you can't really be taking a chance on a player for FPL if he's not a guaranteed starter. Folks have been encouraged to think that Semenyo will be, by his bright start at the club; but it is unlikely to be so.

At the moment, these two players are maintaining a high FPL ownership largely by inertia: folks who'd owned them already at their former clubs are mostly hanging on to them, on a wait-and-see basis. Anyone who brought them into an FPL squad because of their transfers to City was making a very speculative play - and, I would venture, probably ultimately an unwise one.

Amongst the rest of the recent moves, it was the return of Pascal Gross to Brighton that most caught my eye. He's an outstanding all-round midfielder, good at anchoring the central areas, but also often dangerous in pushing forward to support the attack. I expect him to do pretty well on 'defensive points', and he might pick up a few goals too (as he did quite a lot towards the end of his previous spell at the club); he's a solid penalty-taker as well, although I doubt if he'll immediately resume that duty for them. We're a bit spoiled for choice at the moment for dependable midfield dynamos to inexpensively fill 5th - and maybe even 4th - midfield slots; but if he's still as good as he was 18 months ago, I think Gross could perhaps get himself into that conversation as well. [I suppose some would fancy that Douglas Luiz going back to Villa could have a similar impact. But I fear Luiz's original departure from the club was less amicable than Gross's, which might cause some ongoing problems in fitting back in. And, good as he is, I can't see him being able to plug all the gaps left by Kamara and Tielemans and McGinn.]

The only other new signing I fancy could have a significant impact in FPL is Stefan Ortega, who's just joined Nottingham Forest. He is an outstanding keeper, who really deserved more minutes at City. And with Forest's former preferred starters between the sticks, Matz Sels and John Victor, both currently suffering from injury problems, he will surely start immediately (although I don't think you buy someone of his quality to be a back-up option anyway - well, not unless you're Pep!). Forest have a very solid defensive unit, and are starting to toughen up again after a horrifically wobbly first half of the season; Dyche is a dour and pragmatic manager who emphasises the old-school virtues of discipline, tenacity, and workrate - so, I imagine Forest will usually be fairly robust at the back from here on. And, apart from facing Liverpool and City in quick succession around the end of this month, their run-in to the end of the season doesn't look too daunting. The problem, alas, is that Ortega - and his struggling, bottom-of-the-table side - are too 'unproven' to be appealing for the first-choice goalkeeper pick; and he's really just a bit too expensive for a back-up. He started the season at a whopping 5.0 million, which was really ridiculous for a second-string keeper, even at a top club; presumably the FPL Gnomes were anticipating that he was about to graduate to a regular start, amid the rumours of Ederson's possible imminent departure (but, of course, Pep then promptly brought in Trafford and Donnarumma, to dump poor Ortega even further down the pecking-order). His price has since fallen to 4.7 million; but you can still buy the recently impressive Kelleher and Verbruggen for less than that - so, I can't see him getting into many FPL teams. But anyone who does gamble on him,.... might get lucky.

And Oscar Bobb, of course, is hugely talented, and you fancy that he could start producing big points if he got a run of starts somewhere - could Fulham give him that chance? But he's had his injury problems, of course; and so often being left out in the cold by Pep, even when he's fit, has likely dented his confidence some. Also, it's not as if Fulham are short of creative options in the wide positions, with Wilson, Chukwueze, and the young Brazilian Kevin all looking outstanding recently. What the club really needed in this window was a young centre-forward to help Raul out (I wonder if they went in for Strand Larsen?), not yet another winger. But we shall see; if Marco Silva does entrust him with a regular start, maybe we might get some fireworks from him.

I'm also very pleased to see Angel Gomes joining Wolves on loan. His career seems to have lost steam over the last 18 months or so, as he's suffered with a series of injuries; and he now appears to have somehow fallen out of favour at Marseille. He is a fantastically smart and versatile midfielder, and was the absolute standout of Lee Carsley's brief but exciting stewardship of the England team two years ago; I really feel he ought to be able to get himself back into the selection conversation for our World Cup squad (although we'd probably need to see Anderson, Rice and Mainoo pick up injuries - heaven forbid! - for that to happen...). I imagine he's likely to be deployed more in a holding role, and thus is unlikely to produce all that many FPL points himself. But he's the kind of player who could catalyse a significant improvement in the team around him - and that might elevate one or two other Wolves players into FPL contention over the closing months of the season.

Facundo Buonanotte's loan move to Leeds is also intriguing. Unfortunately - though not at all surprisingly - he couldn't get many minutes at Chelsea in the first half of the season; but he is a fantastic creative talent, and made quite an impact with Leicester last season (and he's only just turned 21!). If he gets a regular start and finds a vein of form, he could possibly merit attention as an occasional 5th-seat pick. But I fear he might not get that many starts at Leeds either: he's more of a No. 10 than a wide attacker, and Leeds don't really play with one of those at the moment; and in the wider positions, he'll face competition from the likes of Stach, Ampadu, Aaronson, Gnonto, and James. So, I think he's one worth keeping on the radar, but not someone we should really be expecting anything of.

Jørgen Strand Larsen shifting to Palace and Tammy Abraham going to Villa might perhaps develop into possible 3rd-forward options. But neither have been in great form lately; and, if Ollie Watkins's sore hamstring isn't too much of an issue, Abraham is only likely to be getting minutes off the bench, I fancy. 

I suppose Tyrique George's loan move to Everton, where he's presumably going to fill in for the injured Grealish on the left flank, could also be interesting; though I don't really fancy anyone at that club to become particularly prolific.

But overall, no - there have been no big splashes for FPL in what was, ultimately, a relatively quiet transfer window. [Check out the Fantasy Football Scout website's full rundown of the trades.]

Learn to 'make do'

I blame The Scout (in particular; there are many other sources of this psychopathy...). FPL's own anonymous 'pundit' regularly puts out a 'team of the week' set of recommendations - which is effectively a 'Wildcard' every time: unlimited transfers, taking no heed of what lineup he'd selected the week before, or of what he might want for the weeks immediately following.

Seeing so many FPL 'content creators' follow this pattern - maybe not producing a completely new team every week, but making multiple player suggestions every week.... as if anyone might be able to bring them all in - encourages many of the more naive and impulsive FPL managers to believe that they could and should do likewise, that multiple changes at any time are always acceptable and even necessary, a correct and proper way to play the game.

Of course, that is not a good way to play the game at all.

Transfers have an absolute points value. (FPL's own game designers, in setting the cost of an additional transfer, have rated it as 4 points. It might in practice be a little more or less, depending on the circumstances; but that's a good guideline figure. And that applies to 'Free Transfers' as well as to 'hits': if you're not making an immediate 4-point profit from a transfer,... you probably shouldn't be making it.)

Transfers can also have a more nebulous 'tactical value', encompassing all the more remote benefits of making one change rather than another, or making a change now rather than later.  (The 'tactical value' of deferred transfers is now hugely enhanced - and complicated - by last year's rule innovation allowing us to 'roll over' Free Transfers until we have a maximum stock of 5 at our disposal, effectively giving us the possibility of a number of additional 'mini-Wildcards' each season.)

Hence, every time we make a transfer, we should not only be considering how much value we may get from it immediately in the current gameweek, but how much more value we might possibly get from it by waiting to use it until a later gameweek.

Unless we have a really pressing reason to make an immediate change to our lineup, it is, these days, usually better to roll a transfer than to use one.

No squad, no starting eleven is ever likely to be completely satisfactory. We'll almost always have some players we're developing doubts about, some we're trying to 'rest' through a short injury or dip in form, or a little run of tough fixtures, some players we don't have yet but are starting to covet...  If we thought like The Scout,... yes, we'd make 4, 5, 6 changes almost every single week. But we CAN'T do that. This is not the game we play. 

FPL gives us only limited transfers, and we must be very careful how we use them. We have to learn to accept our inevitable dissatisfactions with our squad, and - most of the time - make do with what we have. We should strive to make as few transfers as possible; not to make any at all unless we feel we really have to. (Which is not at all to say that we should be afraid of making transfers, or should try to avoid ever taking 'hits' - spending the additional points for extra ones. Sometimes we do have to. Just not nearly as often as most people in this game seem to think!)

Cruel Fate - you have surpassed yourself!

 

My best buddy - and principal FPL antagonist - and I have long consoled ourselves with a humorous 'superstition' that there is a balance in the Cosmos: that ill fortune in one area of our lives will inevitably be soon balanced out by some unexpected good fortune in another.

Hence, if things go very ill for us in the current FPL Gameweek, we seek to cheer ourselves up with the reflection that we must be about due for something nice to happen to us in the real world. You know, we'll find some money in the street, or have a friend finally return that favourite book of ours they borrowed five years ago, or at least have an uncommonly pretty girl flash us an uncommonly flirty smile at the supermarket checkout on Thursday evening... One of those little things that make life worth living.

And vice versa: if the real world hasn't been terribly kind to us recently, we become robustly confident that we're about to experience our best Gameweek in months.

And it is uncanny how often this crackpot 'belief' seems to be borne out by events. (I suppose it's our old friend, the 'confirmation bias': we have a low threshold of proof for things we really want to believe in.)  The toilet springs a leak, but Patrick Kluivert scores a hattrick of penalties! I lose my phone, but my highest-scoring player of the week gets auto-subbed into the starting eleven because of a warm-up injury to Cole Palmer! Somebody steals $500 from my hotel room, but I get a ton-up weekly score... in a Single Gameweek, and without playing a chip!

I swear, these are things that have happened; this is my life.

But of course, this is not a reliable rule. I'd like to think it's more of a guideline - but in truth, it's not even that.

I've just had one of the worst months of my life (well, the worst three months or so, actually - but who's counting?), so.... I was kind of looking forward to a compensating upswing in my FPL fortunes.

But oh no, I just had one of my worst weeks of the season, one of my worst weeks ever. Even a modest success for a 'bold' captaincy punt on Nordi Mukiele in the final game couldn't drag me up to the minimum respectability of the 'global average'!!

And this was the first week in a long time - certainly the first one this season - in which I've suffered the triple whammy of losing three key players to injury in quick succession.

To be fair, though, I have quite often in the past suffered a quadruple- and even a quintuple-whammy of injuries - so maybe it's not really all that bad.

When Cosmic Justice breaks down as a consoling principle, at least we still have Perspective.

Another little curveball

 

As if we don't have enough uncertainties and obscurities to ponder and fret over in FPL-land already, it was just confirmed at the end of last week that one of this week's winning League Cup semi-finalists will have their league fixture from the weekend of the Final - Gameweek 31 - anteponed (brought forward) into Gameweek 26. (I really can't recall this ever happening in the past; if it did, it was incredibly uncommon. Last season, when most of the cancelled fixtures from the FA Semi-Final weekend were moved forwards rather than backwards, is the first instance of such a thing that I can remember.)

The victors in tomorrow's second-leg tie at The Emirates, either Arsenal or Chelsea, will thus be enjoying a 'surprise' and rather imminent Double Gameweek - the week after next; as will their scheduled league opponents from the weekend of the Final.

We will know by Wednesday morning if we're going to get a Double Gameweek 26 of:

Brentford v Arsenal        Forest v Wolves        Wolves v Arsenal

OR

Chelsea v Leeds        Everton v Bournemouth        Everton v Chelsea

Of course, Arsenal and Wolves or Chelsea and Everton will also have a Blank Gameweek in GW31 (as will City/Palace or Sunderland/Newcastle) - which is likely to be a much bigger deal; but at least we have a fair amount of time to get ready for that.

The teams in the other semi-final, on Wednesday, seem likely to be spared an anteponing like this because of the European schedule: Newcastle and Crystal Palace (Manchester City's GW31 opponent) have a pair of midweek play-off games in GWs 26 and 27. Hence, it seems likely that, if City or Newcastle reach the Final, their Blank on GW31 will be made up by a more typical postponement - probably to Gameweek 33.

Yes, it is a lot to keep track of....