Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 37

The big hassle this week is the FA Cup Final between Manchester City and Chelsea being scheduled on the penultimate weekend of the season. This means that they can't play their GW37 league games against Bournemouth and Spurs until next Tuesday evening. (I suppose we should at least be grateful that the League didn't decide to declare GW37 a Blank Gameweek for these four teams, and GW38 a Double!)  Having a Friday evening kick-off between Villa and Liverpool was an additional irritation, meaning that we got very very little time on Friday to finalise our team changes. And of course, with City and Chelsea, we have no idea what shape they'll be in for the Tuesday return to league action: elated by success, drained/distracted by celebrations, demoralised by defeat - or perhaps just thoroughly knackered by a tough game (that might have gone to extra time and penalties...). With an especially heightened risk of rotations, it's very dangerous to be relying on players from either of those two clubs this gameweek.

But at least there haven't been too many new injuries this past week!

These weekly 'summaries' have been getting a bit too involved - and excessively time-consuming for me! - so I've been aiming to keep them briefer recently. I made just about zero progress on that resolution for the first few weeks, but.... now I've hit upon a new 'format', which might help: a tabulation of the major types of 'lucky' incidents. 

I will try to resist any extended commentary (although I probably will still indulge in a few diatribes about any particularly egregious penalty or handball incidents).

Red cards awarded: 

Red cards not awarded:  Kai Havertz should have been dismissed for a horrible foul on Ugochukwu on Monday night. There wasn't enough force in it to be a 'leg-breaker', but he dived in widly from behind and caught the opponent very high on the inside of the shin - that's a red card all day long. It was probably too late in the game to have made any difference to the result; but it would at least have given Arsenal a few more grey hairs during the closing minutes.

Penalties awarded: The early penalty award against Kelleher was extremely harsh: he barely touched Ismaila Sarr, who was already going down; contact, yes, but trivial, not enough to bring the player down.

Spurs might reasonably feel aggrieved that they didn't get a penalty when Cucurella wrestled Van de Ven to the floor while he was waiting for a corner to be delivered. The decision may be technically correct - though it was a very close call as to when the foul was deemed to have been committed, and when the ball was deemed to have entered play - under our current absurd law that 'a foul cannot be committed while the ball is dead'; I was saying last weekend that that needs to change.

Penalties not awarded:  Soucek was lucky to escape an early penalty shout: the ball into the box clearly did hit his hand, and he had plenty of time to see the flight of the ball and get out of the way of it, but actually appeared to move his arm slightly towards the ball. Another utterly baffling decision from the VAR room: there is no consistency on these calls this season. Brennan Johnson should also have had a penalty, for a brief but very obvious tug on the back of his shirt at the edge of the box. [Arteta was dismayed that Arsenal didn't get a penalty on Monday night when Saka went down in the act of shooting from the edge of the six-yard-box - but he clearly kicked the back of the defender's heel, rather than the defender kicking him.]

Tight/dubious offsides: It was a great pity that Semenyo's early effort against Bournemouth was ruled out. He did look 'off' by a shoulder - but it was a lovely through-ball from Haaland(!) and a slick finish from Semenyo (and it might have kept the title race live into the final weekend).

Goals wrongly allowed/disallowed: Michael Salisbury made one of the weirdest decisions of the season, even when sent to the pitchside monitor for a second look, somehow ruling that there was nothing wrong with Bryan Mbeumo briefly catching the ball between his upper-arm and chest to bring it under control, in the lead-up to Cunha's goal. Significantly, Cunha didn't celebrate because he knew the goal shouldn't have been able to stand - and briefly looked surprised and embarrassed when it was finally given.

Surprise omissions/early substitutions/injuries: Jeremie Frimpong and Alexander Isak were unexpected omissions from Liverpool's match squad on Friday night, while Salah again only came on near the end. Kevin Schade was dropped to the bench, in favour of Dango Ouattara. Kieran Trippier was reinstated at right-back for a farewell appearance at St James's Park - although that might have been down to an absence of anyone else fit to play in that position rather than any sentiment on Eddie Howe's part. Nuno surprisingly gave a start to Callum Wilson over the recently impressive Taty Castellanos - and that availed him nothing; although he repented and brought the Argentinian on after just 25 minutes, and he did contribute a spectacular late goal. Joao Pedro, supposedly suffering a slight knock, was completely rested on Tuesday night (and Chelsea played one of their best games for ages without him!).

Near misses:  Bryan Mbeumo hit the foot of the near-post at the end of an early breakaway, and in the follow-up Casemiro put an effort inches wide. Ismaila Sarr relished starting as the main striker for Palace, and soon followed up his coolly taken penalty with a fierce near-post drive that smashed against the woodwork. Soon afterwards, his partner Strand Larsen also curled a good effort against the far-post. Jake O'Brien nearly equalised for Everton with a powerful header, but Roefs somehow flung his shoulder at it to deflect it away. In the closing minutes at Old Trafford, a great move ended with Diogo Dalot seeing a cracking cross-shot come back off the far post. Castellanos was nearly a hero for West Ham, almost grabbing a second goal when he smashed a near-post effort past Pope in the closing minutes but saw it hit the angle of post and crossbar. Adam Armstrong had a great chance to snatch a late win for Wolves, but his effort came back off the near-post.

Mathys Tel directed a diving header against the foot of the near-post early in Tuesday night's game at Stamford Bridge: that might be the ultimate what-if that haunts Spurs fans next season!

Big misses/big saves: Karl Darlow made a fine finger-tip save from a long-range effort from Pascal Gross. A little later Joel Veltman's sloppy clearance thudded straight against the chest of his partner Lewis Dunk and rebounded towards the goal, demanding a sharp stop from Bart Verbruggen. 

Leandro Trossard cracked a 20-yard shot against the foot of the post early against Burnley; that might have soothed the Champions-to-be's nerves, in what turned out to be a very tight game. Cole Palmer looked to be getting back to his peak fluency on Tuesday night, and forced Kinsky to make a fingertip save with a delicious curler in the first-half. Soon after his goal, Enzo whipped a cheeky free-kick from a wide position straight at goal and thumped the crossbar. Djordje Petrovic made a sharp stop to his left from Nico O'Reilly: that probably ended City's title hopes, and caused misery to the nearly 20% of FPL managers who own O'Reilly. In the second-half - which Bournemouth increasingly dominated - Rayan's cross/shot from an acute angle on the right deflected off O'Reilly's studs and was going to sneak in at the foot of the near-post until Donnarumma pulled off a brilliant reaction save. David Brooks was presented with an open goal, albeit from the edge of the box, in the closing minutes, but swept his first-time shot tamely straight at the keeper. Shortly afterwards, he had another chance on the breakaway, this time beating Donnarumma but seeing his fierce 20-yard shot slam back off the post.

Outstanding goals: Morgan Rogers and John McGinn were having a little private competition on Friday night to see who could hit the sweetest curler; it will be tough to decide which one should get into the frame for 'Goal of the Month' (although it's a pity that some careless defending improbably let Van Dijk steal in for a couple of headed consolation goals, in what should really have been an absolute drubbing for an increasingly rickety-looking Liverpool...). Luke Shaw produced a very neat finish to give United an early lead - only his 5th goal in 12 seasons at the club! Castellanos gave West Ham fans some scant consolation in a terrible game with his 'Goal of the Season' contender in the 70th minute - lashing home Hermansen's long kick with a first-time half-volley that dipped viciously over Pope from just outside the area. (An assist for a keeper is a rare turn-up in itself!)  Mateus Mané - having already stung Leno's palms with a long-range effort early on - banged in a cracker from the edge of the box to give Wolves a rare lead; though, sadly, they couldn't hang on for all 3 points in their last home game of the season.

Enzo Fernandez whipped one in from at least 30 yards, to dump Spurs right back in the relegation mire - a fantastic strike, but Kinsky probably should have been able to keep it out. In a week of many great curling goals, Kroupi's was one of the sweetest of the lot: one of those where he looked as if he knew it was going in before he even received the ball.

Outstanding performances: 

Big mistakes: Sunderland were gifted a third goal in added-on time when Keane and Coleman both unaccountably opted not to pul the ball behind, and thus let it run through the six-yard box to an unmarked Isidor. Leeds were gifted a last-gasp winner when the usually immaculate Jan Paul van Hecke played a lazy, no-look back-pass straight to Dominic Calvert-Lewin (who then cost his FPL owners a point by taking his shirt off to celebrate!), though Verbruggen was also at fault for rushing out, and Dunk for not dropping back to cover for the error. Many managers with Brighton players were left ruing the sudden evaporation of what had looked like in-the-bag clean-sheet points.

Bad luck/good luck: Ouattara's goal was one of the strangest we've seen this season: Canvot's attempt at a headed clearance struck him in the face at close-range as he ran in behind the defender - and deflected straight into the goal, without him knowing much about it!

FPL weirdness:  Bruno Fernandes was rather generously given a second assist: one of those only-in-FPL ones, not part of his official league tally for the season! Even under the much more generous interpretation of 'assists' being used for the points awards this season, it was rather bizarre to see the Forest defender's attempted clearance interpreted merely as a non-consequential 'deflection'. Antonee Robinson was a surprise penalty-taker for Fulham. (This isn't strictly a weirdness in how FPL is recognising game actions or assigning points - but I couldn't think where else to put it.)

Unexpected results:  Wolves earning a point against Fulham and Sunderland beating Everton were the only mild surprises of this gameweek. Villa's drubbing of Liverpool can't be seen as at all 'unexpected' on recent form; in fact, the only 'surprise' was that they forgot to defend a few times, and allowed Van Dijk to steal in for a couple of soft set-piece goals that the visitors really hadn't earned. Similarly, Bournemouth have been finishing the season strongly, and it was always to be expected that City would be depleted after the demands of the Cup Final a few days before, as well as feeling the pressure of having been chasing in the title race for so long.

With three midweek matches still to play in the gameweek, with some of the top teams involved, the global average was an unbelievably dismal 24 points, and the FPL 'Team of the Week' included only four players - Rogers, Anderson, Watkins, and the incredibly improbable Van Dijk - with any kind of ownership. The average did eventually rise to a respectable 53 points (though largely because there were a lot of bonus chips in play), and the 'Team of the Week' wasn't ultimately one of the more unexpected we've seen this season; although the back-line of Van Dijk, Robinson, and Morata was entirely down to goals-out-of-nowhere rather than overall play! 

With a lot of goals from defenders this week, and an assist from a goalkeeper, an extraordinary amount of woodwork-battering (possibly the most of the season??), 2 clearcut penalties bizarrely not given, a very dubious one awarded against Kelleher, and another 'correctly' but unjustly denied to Spurs on Tuesday, along with Havertz somehow escaping a red card, and Michael Salisbury's unfathomable decision to ignore the Mbeumo handball that should have invalidated United's second goal, this week is another 9 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.

The nuclear option

 

I mentioned in my weekly review of the last gameweek how very unsatisfying the end of the West Ham v Arsenal game had been - for all true lovers of football, even Arsenal fans.

It is unsatisfying that any game should be interrupted for such a painfully protracted delay, while the VAR process grinds slowly on. It is unsatisfying that a foul on the goalkeeper should be arbitrarily deemed to outweigh 4 or 5 penalty fouls being committed against the attacking team. And, whether that decision was technically 'right' or 'wrong', it is unsatisfying - intolerable - that such a remote intervention might have decided the two most important issues of the season, the destination of the title and the last relegation place.

But we only find ourselves in this vexing situation because PGMOL has so signally failed all season to get to grips with the epidemic of wrestling in the penalty area at every set-piece. When there are this many fouls, or potential fouls, now happening multiple times in the game, the on-pitch referee is naturally overwhelmed and unable to cope with the decision-making being asked of him; but so now too is the VAR team - when there are this many bits of grappling going on simultaneously, it becomes impossible for the back-room team (or at least, impractically time-consuming for them) to fairly and consistently adjudicate which incidents are 'consequential' and which are not, and which should 'take priority' in a final decision.

When former referee Darren Cann appeared as a guest on Sunday's 'Match of the Day' on the BBC, he revealed that the 'solution' under discussion was to bar attacking players in the six-yard box at set-pieces next season.

I fear that entirely misses the point. Well, it would eliminate crowding of the keeper, at least initially; although with the wall of grappling players now moved to the edge of the six-yard box, that might still be difficult/impossible for the keeper to barge his way through. And with the likelihood that more attacking players will be attempting to enter the six-yard box from deeper positions, at speed, I fear there would be an increased risk of collisions and serious injuries. Plus, you know, that's now a whole extra layer of fine-margin decision-making for the officials to deal with, determining if an attacking player has entered the six-yard box prematurely or not. It seems to me that this would just be a horrible mess.

The key problem we've created for ourselves is the amount of wrestling going on in the penalty area - every time the ball comes in from a corner or a free-kick or a long throw-in. The frequent mobbing of the goalkeeper is only one facet of that. And Cann's suggested rule revision wouldn't address that problem at all; it would just shift the ugly ruck slightly further back from the goal-line - probably, in fact, making the melee around the edge of the six-yard box even denser and more difficult to police.

I'm quite happy for the Laws of the Game to remain as they are in relation to access to the six-yard box. We just need to see the Laws we have being more stringently enforced.

But one small change that I think would help enormously with that would be to abolish the absurd notion that you can't commit a foul when the ball is out of play. There are already exceptions to this: obviously, serious violent conduct can't be tolerated at any time, on or off the pitch, whether the ball is dead or not: if you tug an opponent's hair, or stomp on their instep, or throw a punch at them - you're going to get a red card. (At least, that's how I assume things stand. It surely can't be otherwise??)  And I see no reason why it should be any different for other categories of offence. Holding offences at a set-piece, as the ball is about to come into play, can obviously impede a player from reaching the ball when it is in play - the consequences of the improper action continue into the period when the ball has become live. And, in commonsense terms, that kind of thing clearly ought to be a foul.

So, I propose that referees should be able to immediately issue yellow cards for any such infractions they notice - rather than being restricted, as at present, to merely issuing ineffectual 'warnings';... and then things getting too messy for them to sort out once the ball finally enters play.

Further, I'd like to see the definitions of this type of offence tightened up - so that simply putting hands on an opponent in this situation (without the need for any additional shirt-tugging or shoving or grappling) should earn a yellow card.

I would even suggest that we can extend the 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity' rule to make red cards an option, if an attacking player is brought to ground by such an interaction (at least in a 'danger zone' in front of the goal - perhaps a 20-yd x 12-yd area defined by the edges of the six-yard box and the line of the penalty spot). The ball coming into the penalty area from a corner - or a free-kick or a throw-in - is a highly chaotic and unpredictable situation, but one which usually presents a very high chance of a goalscoring opportunity resulting for someone. One can't predict exactly how a ball might break in front of the goal, or how an attacking player might have been able to move towards the ball if not wrestled to the ground. So, it seems to me perfectly reasonable to be somewhat generous in defining a 'goalscoring opportunity' in this circumstance, and to send a defending player off for a major foul of this type.

Yes, I know, this is a 'nuclear option' - it could produce major carnage in the opening weeks of the season. 

Hopefully, most teams and players would be able to take note of the new rules implementation and - mostly - restrain themselves from indulging in the kind of grappling which has so marred the current season. But probably, some of them wouldn't. And we might see 6 or 8 or 10 yellow cards at the first corner of the new season. And perhaps in the first corner of every game of the opening weekend. And perhaps even a handful of red cards too (for second yellow-card offences, if not straight reds).

So be it. After that, everyone would quickly adapt, and cards for these offences would soon become a rarity - because the offence had been effectively stamped out.

Ah, a man can dream....

It shouldn't take rule changes or a major revision in implementation policy to address an issue like this. If PGMOL had acted more promptly and decisively, within the framework of the existing rules, early in the season, we could have stifled this phenomenon already. But now.... it's got completely out of hand; and it needs a more drastic intervention to remedy it. (And it's already ruined the title race...)

Dilemmas of the Week - GW 37 (25/26)

Not too many new injuries again this week, it seems, so...., hopefully, this can be another brief one.

I am trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

I've recently discovered this additional resource, the weekly Predicted Lineups from Fantasy Football Edits. My longtime standby for this sort of news, Fantasy Footall Scout, does usually provide some explanatory commentary on its predictions, even including reminders of the key injury concerns, and sometimes also some discussion of possible alternate selections; so, if you like a bit more detail with your 'probable lineups' for the week, that could still be the preferable roundup to look at. But because FPL Edits is so stripped-down, it's rather more straightforwardly accessible, easier to scan through quickly; and I think it's also perhaps a tad more reliable with its expected formations and lineups, and a little quicker to update.

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 37?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

There's still no word on the nature of the injury that forced Riccardo Calafiori to come off against West Ham last Sunday, but it seems he's still a doubt for this week. The knee injury that caused Ben White's early withdrawal in that game is at least serious enough to rule him out for the little that remains of the season.

Kaoru Mitoma pulled a hamstring when playing Wolves last Saturday, and will miss the remainder of the season.

Hannibal Mejbri was withdrawn against Villa last week, but apparently it was just cramp or fatigue rather than anything too serious, and he is possibly/probably in contention to play this week.

Pascal Struijk made an appearance against Spurs last week, but was forced off by the hip problem that's been bothering himn for a couple of weeks.

Manuel Ugarte supposedly missed selection last week because of a back issue - but does anyone really expect to see him playing in the Premier League again?

Joelinton is said to be a 'slight doubt' for Newcastle because of a thigh problem - but given how much he's suffered with muscle injuries in the past, I would imagine that means he's definitely out of action this week.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Bournemouth's Ryan Christie is out for the season, after picking up a three-match-ban red card for a bad foul on Timothy Castagne last week. Joachim Andersen also picked up a red card and a three-match ban for his crunching challenge on Adrien Truffert in the same match. Dan Ballard is in the middle of a three-match-ban for 'violent conduct' (a hair-pull), so we won't be seeing him again this season either.

Harvey Elliott is ineligible to play for Aston Villa against his parent club Liverpool on Friday night - although, since we haven't really seen anything of him all season, that's an irrelevant technicality. Facundo Buonanotte is similarly barred from representing Leeds against Brighton, though he too has hardly featured lately for his loan club.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

I have to say, Liverpool are looking really ragged to me, and I don't think I'd be taking a chance on any of their players for a tough last two fixtures - even the always excellent Dominik Szoboszlai or the just-back-from-injury Alexander Isak. I don't have much faith in a De Zerbi renaissance at Spurs either, and I suspect they'll probably struggle, and almost certainly drop points against both Chelsea and Everton. Although Chelsea are looking fairly awful too....

The big problem this week is the FA Cup Final happening before the end of the league programme. With City and Chelsea contesting that on Saturday afternoon, their GW37 league games against Bournemouth and Spurs are delayed until Tuesday evening. Given that the Cup game is always likely to be especially emotionally draining, even if it's a fairly straightforward game, and could be physically too, if it goes to extra time and penalties, it's probably better - if possible - to avoid relying too much on City or Chelsea players on Tuesday. Some of them might well not play at all; and those who start might not be at their best, and might only get short minutes. A lot of FPL managers already got burned by Pep's rotations of Doku, Cherki, Reijnders, and even Haaland in last week's would-be 'Double Gameweek'; something similar is sadly likely this time. But.... at this stage of the season, with chips and Free Transfers probably all used up, folks won't really enjoy the option of moving out City/Chelsea players; alas, if they have too many of them, they could well end up fielding a short FPL team this week, or at least having a few 1-point returns. It is a cruel game.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

I liked the look of Junior Kroupi, Josh King, and Kevin Schade last week,.... and everyone at Everton recently! But not enough to make any of them priority acquisitions. At this stage of the season, you really just have to save your transfers in case you get hit with a sudden avalanche of injuries in the final week!

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

A little bit of Zen (94)

"Anxiety destroys scale, and suffering makes us lose perspective."

Saul Bellow

Things always seem worse than they are. And they often appear to be worse for us than they are for others. But even on the rare occasions when that's true, things are almost never as bad as they might be.

There is a comfort to be found in perspective.

So, what does MAKE THE DIFFERENCE in FPL?

Last month, I made the rather bold assertion that... it doesn't matter all that much which players you pick in FPL. And I promised to soon go into more detail about what I believe does make the most difference to your outcomes in the game (but I was thwarted in that resolution by the sudden loss of my computer and Internet access!). Finally, I am trying to address that topic.

Now, of course, as I acknowledged in that earlier post, it does matter to some extent who you pick; just... not nearly as much as we'd all like to hope. Some FPL managers make a lot of really bad picks, and of course they don't deserve to prosper (although sometimes they do; there's too little justice in the game). But my key point there had been that there is usually quite a broad spread of potential good picks; and within that field of sensible, promising selections, most players will perform just about as well as each other - certainly over the full season, or a big chunk of it; but also surprisingly often over even a fairly short run of games. I have sometimes run multiple teams, with radically different tactics and selections - but they ended up with nearly identical final points totals. I regularly compare myself against a number of long-time managers that I consider to be shrewd and consistent; there are rarely more than 100 points between us at season's end, sometimes a lot less - even though we've made some wildly different picks. Yes, most years, there are a few players (maybe just one; maybe none...) who are performing so consistently above the general range of everyone else that they become genuine must-haves. But most managers recognise that Haaland or Palmer or Saka or whoever is an 'essential' (at least, for now; that status rarely lasts a whole season). There's almost always room for plenty of debate around who are the 'best of the rest' that you should have in the squad. And amongst these better players, there are usually many potential selections of almost exactly equal value.

So, unless you ignore this pool of solid talent, and wilfully make a lot of bad picks, most of your player selections aren't actually going to have a huge impact on your final points total or your rank - at least, as compared to other good FPL managers.

So, what does..... make the difference in our game?

I believe the main factors determining FPL outcomes are as follows:

1) Getting off to a flying start. The opening of the season is one big lottery. There are so many unknowns - players have switched clubs, some managers have changed, tactics may shift dramatically in the new season, revisions to PGMOL guidelines may have a huge impact (vastly fewer penalties over the last two years, while goalmouth wrestling at set-pieces is now routinely tolerated....; though that might change next year), and the pre-season friendlies don't usually give us any reliable guide as to what anyone's form or fitness or confidence is going to be like going into actual competitive games; we are essentially betting blind with our initial squad selection.

If you are lucky enough to correctly guess nearly all of the players who are going to make the hottest start to the season, you don't just get nice scores in the opening few gameweeks, you can get a huge momentum continuing through the first third or so of the season. People who've been less lucky, and have picked a lot of players who are unexpectedly dropped or strangely struggling for form, will have to use multiple transfers - perhaps even take a few 'hits' - over the opening weeks to put things right; they may even be forced into using their first Wildcard early - thereby missing out on the considerable advantage that it can give you if you are able to use it later in the first half of the season for a tactical rebuild at a key moment. 

While it is not impossible to make up for a poor start, it is very, very difficult: it can take until the mid-point of the season, or even longer. And it is possible, all too possible, to suffer such a bad start that you will never get back into the top 1 million.

 

2)  Being lucky with your captaincy picks.  While we do occasionally get a player who has such a long run of consistently high returns (not every week, but often enough to make him worth repeatedly betting on with the armband) that you can make them your default captaincy choice, even then you can't really expect them to give you a strong return more than about 1 week in 3 on average (and, even when they do, they often won't in fact be your highest points producer of the week!), And even when it might be reasonable to keep picking one outstanding player most of the time, it's never a good idea to make someone an invariable choice. Even last year, when Salah had such an improbable, record-smashing season, his returns tailed off a bit over the last few months. 

You should usually expect to have at least 4 or 5 of your players in any given gameweek who have an elevated chance of returning a really good FPL score; picking 'the right one' is next-to-impossible - you'll be wrong more often than you're right. You can't realistically expect to get a nice return from your captaincy more than once in every 3-4 gameweeks; and that will only actually be your best score of the week about half as often.

Unless.... you're very, very lucky. If your 'success rate' with the captaincy shifts upwards from a normal (actually, good) 30% to more like 50%, that can make a big difference to your eventual points tally. [An 'average' captaincy return is 4-5 points, a 'poor' one 2 or less, a 'good one' 8-10 points. So, every 10% that your captaincy success rate improves is probably worth an extra 15-20 points.]  You do tend to find that the global champion each year has been distinguished by an extraordinarily high return from his captaincy picks.

3)  Not being too heavily hit by injuries.  There can be an enormous variance in the impact of injuries on an FPL manager over a season; and this can make a huge difference to your rank (just ask Spurs!).  My record worst, a few seasons ago, was 55 injuries in a season (and that's discounting minor knocks and illnesses that only rendered someone 'doubtful' for a week or so; that's significant problems that made someone likely to be unavailable for an extended or indefinite period, and required their immediate replacement in the squad).  I reckon my 'usual' number has been in the 30-40 range - which is probably rather above the general average.

Think about it: if you have that many injuries, you have to use almost all of your Free Transfers - and probably some 'hits' too, far more than you'd like! - just on replacing injury absentees. You have almost no scope for making elective transfers to improve your squad on the basis of changing form or fixture-difficulty. You are hamstrung, disastrously limited in how you can approach the game. An injury to a major player doesn't just rob you of the points you hoped to get from them in the coming gameweek(s), it shackles your tactical options too.

And, of course, last-minute injuries, which you aren't able to replace and leave you with an unexpected hole in your squad, can have an even more negative impact.

4)  Lucking into the players who can give you a few huge scores (perhaps just the one).  I began by saying that the majority of players from the constantly varying pool of 'sensible choices' don't generally provide much differentiation in their points returns. But a few do - over a very short run of games, really by pure fluke. And if you can be lucky enough to be on a few of these at just the right time (most of these are players who don't provide long-term value, so you don't want to be owning them before they hit their sudden 'vein of form' - or for too long afterwards), it will make a huge difference to your end-season total. 

This is one of the most frustrating aspects of FPL, because, most of the time, there is no indication of where these sudden bursts of form come from: a player who's done nothing all season, perhaps even a player who hasn't been getting regular starts, sometimes produces a great game - and a nice FPL points haul - out of nowhere. 

In general, FPL veterans counsel against 'chasing last week's points', rushing in to buy a player who's just produced one big haul. And that is mostly sound advice: most of the time, this doesn't pay off. But occasionally.... it does: the player with no established form all season will produce another good return (maybe not in the very next game, but fairly soon), and perhaps even a third. It is a torturous conundrum as to whether to bring in a player who's had 2 or 3 decent returns in a short space of time: is this really emerging form, or just a flash-in-the-pan that's already over??  [Phil Foden produced an especially goading example of this just before Christmas. He appeared to be out of favour with Pep again this year, hadn't been getting regular starts; and, when he was playing, was mostly being deployed in a rather deeper role where he was having zero attacking impact. And then, in a period of extreme fixture congestion, where there was a midweek league game as well as crucial final matches in the Champions League group stage, he suddenly played 4 successive games within the space of a fortnight (though he didn't start them all!), and produced a double-digit haul in each of them. No-one had ever done that 4 times back-to-back before; and he couldn't even really have been expected to play in all 4 of those games, when they came in such quick succession. And there really had been no reason to fancy bringing him just before the start of that sequence. If you had, you were very lucky. If you didn't have him before the streak started, you might reasonably have thought the first haul was a one-off freak. And when he did it a second time, you might reasonably have thought that he couldn't possibly do it three times in a row - and probably would get rested in the next game anyway. And once you'd missed out on 3 successive hauls, you know you've missed the party and there's no point coming in for him now - even if he might get one or two more decent returns in the coming month. Last December, I wrote at length about how we make selection decisions like this, and the timing of them - with particular reference to this Phil Foden example. That was FPL at its cruellest and most taunting.]

5)  Getting a good return from your chips.  The chips are another huge randomizing element in the game of FPL. Certainly, you can make 'smarter' or 'dumber' choices about when to play them; but there is no guarantee that the 'smarter' choices will be rewarded (or that the 'dumber' ones won't sometimes unjustly work out well!). To get a really good return from your Bench Boost, you need to have all 15 squad members starting, and producing a decent haul; and there is absolutely no way to predict when that might happen - it almost never does. [The optimum return from the Bench Boost chip is probably slightly higher than it is for the Triple Captain, but the chances of that transpiring are far lower.]  As noted above in the point on the weekly captaincy selection, over the season you can't be confident that even your best player is going to return a good haul in more than 1-in-3 or 1-in-4 games, and you can never know for sure when those games are going to be. There is usually a rather higher chance of identifying the games in which a really good haul is most likely for them; but even in those (player bang in form, his team is bang in form, opponents are in woeful defensive form), it's never better than a 50/50 as to whether he'll give you a double-digit return or a blank. And the Free Hit, at least the 2nd one, is usually more about getting yourself out of trouble (most often, in a big Blank Gameweek) than producing a positive lift in a regular gameweek.

Every gameweek in FPL is a collection of bets. When you play a chip, you're making even more bets, or increasing your stakes. This expands the range of possible outcomes and generates a high variance in FPL points returns. Some people get very lucky with these returns, some get very unlucky. And this makes a big difference overall.

FPL is all about making predictions. And you can never be confident in the outcome of a prediction. You can never know that your initial squad is going to be near-perfect for the start of the season, you can never know that your captain (or your Triple Captain!) is going to produce a good haul, you can never know if a player is about to get injured, you can never know if a player you've just transferred in is about to produce a really huge return, you can never know if you're going to going to get a good - or any worthwhile - return from playing your Bench Boost or Free Hit.

'Skill' makes some difference in our game: smart FPL managers will - almost always - do much better than dumb, naive, inexperienced ones. But amongst the smarter managers, the only difference, really, is luck. The 'margins' in the game are to be found in these most random and unpredictable elements of it.

Happy thoughts

Here are a couple of videos I've particularly enjoyed in the last week or so....

I have occasionally found James Allcott a bit irritatingly full of himself (although I may be biased by an element of jealousy of his youthful good looks...), and his content is often a little self-indulgently over-long. But he seems a likeable chap, and he usually has some worthwhile things to say. I especially liked this recent shorter piece from him in celebration of Rayan Cherki.

And long-time favourite of mine, The Purist Football, is now posting rather more regularly, and on some shorter, more specfic topics. His latest is this rather fun appreciation of the thrilling tactics of humble NEC Nijmegen (currently on track for European football next year, as they sit in 4th place in the Eredivisie - actually just ahead of Ajax, who are having a difficult season). They seem to have become the embodiment of an 'Attack, attack, attack!' mentality - and we must hope that more teams around the Continent start to emulate this.

Never give up!

 

Last year, I watched a documentary about the early years of the American Space Program which included the following very striking line on the unique mentality they looked for in their astronauts - most of whom were admitted into the selection trials on the basis of their experience as military and/or civilian test pilots. I found the observation rather inspiring. I wish I could remember who said it; no-one very famous, not one of the astronauts, I think, but one of the engineers who'd worked closely with them.

Any ordinary pilot will reach a point where he accepts the situation is hopeless. You know, the plane's 10 seconds from hitting the ground and he'll say, "This is it. We're going down. We're going to die."

A test pilot just thinks to himself, "I still have 10 seconds. What else can I try?"

We should, I believe, seek to apply the same attitude in our approach to playing Fantasy Premier League. However unkind the Fates have been to us this season, however far out of reach our original goals may have slipped,... there are still things we can fight for, new challenges we can seek to overcome week by week.

We might not always 'succeed', but we can always TRY.

Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 36

Despite the added stress of the semi-finals of the European compeitions this week, there haven't been many new injury concerns. [I would probably have been ruing the sudden exclusion of Noah Okafor and Alex Jimenez, but they weren't all that widely owned by the FPL masses....]

These weekly 'summaries' have been getting a bit too involved - and excessively time-consuming for me! - so I've been aiming to keep them briefer recently. I made just about zero progress on that resolution for the first few weeks, but.... now I've hit upon a new 'format', which might help: a tabulation of the major types of 'lucky' incidents. 

I will try to resist any extended commentary (although I probably will still indulge in a few diatribes about any particularly egregious penalty or handball incidents).

Red cards awarded: 

Red cards not awarded:  Matheus Nunes was slightly fortunate not to be penalised for the cheeky little shove in the back that sent Kevin Schade sprawling on the edge of the box - not quite a penalty, but a 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity', since he'd broken clean through. There wasn't much contact, but it clearly threw the player off-balance and brought him down.

It is baffling that Sunderland's Ecuadorian midfielder Nilson Angulo escaped a sending-off. He made a deliberate motion with his elbow towards Bruno Fernandes's face as he ran past him, and although - mercifully - the actual contact was fairly slight, the premeditatedness of it made it a clearcut instance of 'violent conduct'. VAR's opinion that it wasn't 'violent enough' was utterly daft.

Igor Jesus also looked a bit lucky to get away with only a yellow card for blatantly and unnecessarily shoulder-barging Lewis Hall in the face.

Destiny Udogie should have been sent off for 'denial of a scoring opportunity' foul on Calvert-Lewin as well.

Penalties awarded: 

Penalties not awarded:  Joao Pedro was very unlucky not to receive a penalty when Frimpong's clumsy challenge clearly brought him down in the box. Presumably it was deemed an 'accidental coming-together' - but we see that kind of clash interpreted as a penalty foul at least 9 times out of every 10. The Brazilian sprang straight back to his feet, seeing an opportunity to continue the attack; unfortunately, it is probably this 'honesty' in his play that led to the penalty decision not being given. (Well, that and the fact that Chelsea are now hardly ever given penalties, this season or last.)

There was another big shout against Matheus Nunes in the second-half when Schade again appeared to have gone down in the box after a little push. TV pictures didn't show any clear contact from the defender, and the German winger might have just tripped over his own feet. But it was one of those where, if the referee had initially given the penalty, VAR would not have found grounds to suggest a possible error.

Kyle Walker clearly trod on Emi Buendia's heel (causing his boot to fall off), but.... this was somehow an 'accidental coming-together' according to VAR. Not the worst decision of the season, but probably the worst justification of a bad decision we've yet seen.

Spurs amazingly dodged a bullet on Monday night when Udogie was let off from bundling over Calvert-Lewin on the edge of the six-yard box (which would have been a 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity' sending-off as well) because the Leeds striker had been wrongly flagged offside.

Tight/dubious offsides: The call against Marc Cucurella breaking down the left early in the second-half at Anfield looked correct, but pretty tight - and it was unfortunate for Cole Palmer, who could have done with the confidence-boost of an open-play goal (10 weeks and counting....).

Ollie Watkins' first-half effort had looked well offside to the naked eye, but... the SAOT graphic deemed him to have been only too far ahead by about 6 inches, the length of the instep of his leading foot. Moreover, there was an issue as to whether the last defender or the ball should have been the decisive 'line' for judging this incident, but the SAOT did not show the ball. I suddenly realise: I don't think it ever does - this is another major problem with the system!

Goals wrongly allowed/disallowed: The big talking point of the week - and the season - is of course the eventual overturning of West Ham's last-gasp equaliser against Arsenal on Sunday. There was a foul on Raya, but.... he was looking for it (he stood next to Pablo and leaned into his outstretched arm, before theatrically falling over - rather than stepping back a little and then taking a running jump over the blocking West Ham player towards the incoming ball, as a keeper should), and it was not very apparent in real time (it's hard to see how this meets the supposed 'clear & obvious' threshold for VAR intervention, when no-one at the stadium had much idea what was going on and it took the back-room team 4 or 5 minutes to render their decision), and the 'most consequential incident' rule officials are apparently now following is obviously unsatisfactory (arbitrarily disregarding at least four instances of egregious wrestling by Arsenal defenders because.... impeding the keeper is more important??). This may have been technically the 'right decision' under our currently crazy, impractical Laws of the Game; but it was deeply, deeply unsatisfying to all lovers of the game - it felt unjust. I, for one, would far rather tolerate the occasional 'wrong' decision, if that's the price of trusting the on-pitch official most of the time, and/or for imposing a sensible time-limit on VAR deliberations. And 'right' or 'wrong', we simply don't want the title - or relegation - to be determined by a bunch of men peering at a TV monitor in a PortaCabin somewhere.....  Things have got to change. [I had some more to say on this a week later, on how I think PGMOL should address this problem.]

Surprise omissions/early substitutions/injuries: Florian Wirtz was a last-minute absentee for Liverpool on Saturday, because of a stomach bug; that gave the popular youngster Rio Ngumoha a rare start (and led to more vilification for Arne Slot when he subbed him off after little more than an hour, when he looked the best player on the park - although he was apparently starting to suffer from cramp). Casemiro was a late drop-out for United, having apparently picked up a training-ground knock; Mount deputised for him, and Joshua Zirkzee got a surprise start up-front because Sesko had still not recovered from a heavy whack on the shin he suffered last week. The recently superb Khusanov was a surprise omission for City, supposedly another victim of a previously unannounced knock in training late in the week; Nico Gonzalez was surprisingly dropped in favour of Tijjani Reijnders. Dango Ouattara was also a somewhat unexpected omission for City's opponents, Brentford. And Pep incurred the wrath and dismay of FPL enthusiasts yet again by substituting Cherki (the most transffered-in player this week - always a curse!) and Reijnders seconds shy of the hour mark.

The seemingly perpetually unlucky Ben White had to hobble off after just 26 minutes, after hurting his knee in a collision with Summerville. Morgan Gibbs-White was unable to play after suffering a facial injury in Thursday's Europa League semi-final - the gash in the middle of his forehead too deep, still at too much risk of opening up again.

The notorious 'Pep Roulette' reached a new nadir on Wednesday night, when the barely fit-again Josko Gvardiol was brought in for Nico O'Reilly, the recently outstanding Rayan Cherki only got on for the last 10 minutes (but almost immediately set up a goal for Savinho, and almost repeated the exploit a few minutes later), Haaland and Doku were 'rested' completely, and Rayan Ait-Nouri was tried out in a central midfield role (which, while they may be consoling themselves that they were being spared for Saturday's FA Cup Final, should cause grave alarms for the agents of Nico Gonzalez and Tijjani Reijnders...).

Near misses:  Szoboszlai crashed a shot against the foot of the near-post, and Van Dijk saw a powerful header thud off the top of the crossbar (he claimed to have been impeded by a shirt tug, but there was no clear view of that on the TV pictures). Junior Kroupi smashed an effort against the crossbar in the first-half at Craven Cottage, and in the dying minutes Josh King saw his powerful shot bounce down off the underside of the bar but not quite cross the line. Yerson Mosquera nearly salvaged some pride for Wolves when his header skimmed the top of the bar (that would have pulled them back to 2-1 - although they never really looked like they had a chance of getting into the game). Sunderland's Lutsharel Geertruida also saw a long-range effort crash against the foot of the post late on against United.

On Sunday, Adam Wharton nearly nicked a late win for Palace when he smashed a 25-yard drive against the outside of the left post. And Will Osula whipped a lovely 25-yard free-kick against the crossbar.

Big misses/big saves: Jordan Pickford yet again pulled off the save of the weekend, somehow flinging a leg out to block a ferocious shot from Ismaila Sarr that came at him with an obstructed view, through the legs of a defender.

David Raya had to get across his goal very smartly to palm away Castellanos's diving header from 16-yards out, and later spread himself well to stop Mateus Fernandes prodding the ball past him when put clean through.

Antonin Kinsky pulled off a great reaction stop on his goal-line at the foot of the post from Rodon's weak but well directed downward header - to prevent Spurs going behind in the opening minutes (a setback which, given their current jittery nerves, would surely have proven fatal to them). He added another great stop in the second-half, tipping Longstaff's fierce near-post drive on to the woodwork.

Gvardiol's towering header appeared bound for the top left corner, but Dean Henderson somehow clawed it away from behind him - keeping the scoreline somewhat respectable (if Arsenal win the title by a single goal, David Raya will be sending him a Gift Card...).

Outstanding goals: Ryan Gravenberch started the weekend with a 'Doku special' (his first goal in four-and-a-half months). Rayan claimed the points for Bournemouth by pinging one into the bottom corner from nearly 25 yards out. And Jeremy Doku himself got the crucial breakthrough goal against Brentford with a right-foot curler that was uncannily near-identical to his last-gasp point-saver against Everton on Monday night.

Elliot Anderson produced a great late equaliser for Forest to finally put them safe from relegation, lashing home from a very acute angle.

Mathys Tel finished very sweetly from the edge of the box to put Spurs in the lead on Monday night - but they were once again perhaps guilty of excessive and premature elation, celebrating as if they'd won the match in only the 50th minute,... and once more coming undone before the end.

Outstanding performances: 

Big mistakes: 

Bad luck/good luck: Enzo Fernandez's free-kick was clearly intended as a low cross, but deceived everyone and sneaked into the far bottom corner of the goal. Wesley Fofana had a whiff at the ball as it passed him, and came so close to helping it on its way that he probably could have claimed the goal if he'd insisted that he thought he made contact - but he unselfishly admitted that he didn't.

FPL weirdness:  Antoine Semenyo was very unlucky not to be awarded an assist for Haaland's goal; the ball ricocheted off a couple of other players on its way through to the centre-forward, but this season we've usually seen such non-conclusive interventions disregarded. The thinking may have been that, in addition to the mutlple deflections, Haaland himself had muffed his initial effort and had to improvise a second attempt to bundle the goal messily across the line - and perhaps this was a 'new phase of play'. But we don't usually see players regarded as 'assisting' themselves, and here the chance was clearly created by Semenyo's surge to the byline. Ah, apparently they're claiming it was a 'save' from Kelleher that was deemed to have initiated a new 'phase of play'; but it wasn't a 'save' - it was a miscontrol by Haaland, not an attempted shot, and the ball didn't have enough power behind it to have reached the goal; and Kelleher didn't know anything about it, the ball simply rebounded off his shin, returning to Haaland within about a tenth of a second.

Unexpected results:  Liverpool again looked fairly dreadful, and were lucky to hang on to even a point at home. Fulham were dominating a slightly out-of-sorts Bournemouth, even before Ryan Christie's sending-off, and would have won comfortably - with some more incisive finishing. A very sub-par Manchester United were lucky to hang on to a point against a perky Sunderland - although the home side should have been reduced to 10 men in the closing minutes. Nobody was expecting Burnley to - deservedly - claim a point against high-flying Villa. Palace, with nothing to play for in the league, and naturally a bit weary after a European semi-final a few days ago, put up an unexpectedly robust resistance to bang in-form Everton, coming from behind twice and nearly stealing all 3 points. And a somewhat misfiring Arsenal were very, very, very lucky to get past West Ham (with a big helping hand from VAR!).

The FPL 'Team of the Week', for once, ends up being not too wildly unexpected, with almost everyone (at least in the preliminary line-up. at the end of the weekend) - except the United pair, Lammens and Mazraoui - being among the top 60 or so most popular selections. (It just serves to underline how very weird it is that we've rarely had more than 3 or 4 of the 'Team of the Week' players among the most selected in almost every other gameweek this season!) Ultimately, with two fairly comfortable wins for City, no fewer than 7 City players crashed the selection - although Pep (who obviously hates FPL!!) 'rested' all 4 of the most popular picks, Haaland, Cherki, Doku, and O'Reilly, for the midweek match against Palace!

The global average climbed to 65 points, one of the highest of the season - although that was with the extra game for City, and an awful lot of leftover bonus chips in play. With a few unexpected absences from key players, 3 or 4 red cards missed (Angulo's foul on Fernandes a really blatant and unarguable instance; but Udogie's surviving a 'DOGSO' offence on Monday being even more consequential, as having a potentially huge impact on the relegation battle), 3 or 4 really badly missed penalty awards, much battering of the woodwork (even more than usual; and we've seen an awful lot of such agonisingly near-misses this season!), and that insane last-minute VAR drama at West Ham, this week is looking like a 9 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.

Dilemmas of the Week - GW 36 (25/26)

Yes, I'm finally back - after a TWO-WEEK hiatus caused by a computer meltdown...

And not too many new injuries this week, it seems, so...., hopefully, this can be a brief one.

I am trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

I've recently discovered this additional resource, the weekly Predicted Lineups from Fantasy Football Edits. My longtime standby for this sort of news, Fantasy Footall Scout, does usually provide some explanatory commentary on its predictions, even including reminders of the key injury concerns, and sometimes also some discussion of possible alternate selections; so, if you like a bit more detail with your 'probable lineups' for the week, that could still be the preferable roundup to look at. But because FPL Edits is so stripped-down, it's rather more straightforwardly accessible, easier to scan through quickly; and I think it's also perhaps a tad more reliable with its expected formations and lineups, and a little quicker to update.

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 36?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Ollie Watkins suffered a nasty gash on the head in Villa's Europa League win over Forest, but was not considered 'concussed' and was able to complete the whole game - so, it seems likely he'll be able to play again against Burnley on Sunday.

Mats Wieffer is a doubtful starter after he had to come off early on against Newcastle last week with an ankle injury.

Alejandro Garnacho and Pedro Neto missed last week's game against Forest with training knocks, and remain unlikely to be able to start this week. Goalkeeper Robert Sanchez suffered a head injury in that Forest game, and has been ruled out of this weekend's match at Anfield.

Oliver Glasner has highlighted Adam Wharton, Yeremy Pino, Ismaila Sarr, Tyrick Mitchell, and Jean-Philippe Mateta as players who are struggling with knocks and/or fatigue after their Conference League semi-final win on Thursday - so, none of those seem to be options for the Double Gameweek, as almost certain to get short minutes, or perhaps sit out one of the two fixtures entirely.

Leeds's Noah Okafor, a recent FPL phenomenon with 3 double-digit hauls in the last 4 games and an ownership that had surged to nearly 350,000, has pulled a calf-muscle and will struggle to be available again for the last game of the season.

Alexander Isak missed last week's game against Manchester United with a minor groin strain, but has returned to training, so might play some part against Chelsea.

Benjamin Sesko had to come off against United last week after taking a heavy blow to the shin; there appears to be no further word on whether that's gong to keep him out of action for a while.

Newcastle's Lewis Miley cracked a fibula in training this week, and will be out for the rest of the season.

Morgan Gibbs-White may also be a doubt to appear against Newcastle, after suffering a massive gash on the forehead in the Europa League tie against Villa on Thursday night. As with Ollie Watkins's injury, though, it is not deemed to have caused any concussion, so he might perhaps be OK to play this weekend with a heavy bandage or patch.

Jose Sa missed last week's game with an ankle problem, though Rob Edwards is hopeful he might be fit again this week. If not, Dan Bentley should deputise again.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Sunderland's Dan Ballard misses the rest of the season for tugging the hair of Tolu Arukodare last week, a 'violent conduct' offence (Sundlerland's appeal that the tug was 'accidental' was quickly rejected).

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

The big news of the week is that Bournemouth full-back Alex Jimenez was suspended by the club this Friday upon news that the police are investigating allegations that he had been flirting online with a 16-year-old girl. (I don't think that's actually illegal...? But there may be an issue that she was still only 15 when he began these conversations.) Even if he's ultimately exonerated, he's likely to miss the rest of this season and a good chunk of next. (Although he's returned 3 hauls in the last 9 games, he is - strangely - only owned by about 30,000 managers in FPL; so, this news won't have that much of an impact.)

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Well, I haven't been able to watch very much football over the past few weeks, so I have limited insight into this, but...  

Rayan Cherki and Jeremy Doku have been absolutely superb of late; but surely should have made their way into people's FPL squads already! However, if they haven't, this week's Double Gameweek for City, with matches against Brentford and Palace (not the easiest, especially when they're so deperately playing catch-up in the title race), may prompt a lot of people to consider bringing them in now. They really ought to be the week's top captaincy picks; indeed, there's a case for dropping the recently points-shy Semenyo, and perhaps even Haaland to make room for the pair of them.

West Ham have been starting to look very impressive since the start of March (well, apart from last week's drubbing by Brentford...), with Castellanos and Mavropanos, in particular, and the perennially solid Jarrod Bowen looking very tempting picks - especially for anyone wishing for an upset for Arsenal this weekend to keep the title race alive. People getting excited over the spectacular return of Bukayo Saka against Fulham last week are, I think, dangerously overlooking the fact that he was withdrawn at the end of the first-half (and got similarly short minutes in the Champions League semis against Atletico). Given that Arsenal should be able to win their last three league games with a youth team, and that they've got by without Saka for a third of this season, I imagine it's quite likely he'll continue to be wrapped in cotton-wool (i.e., very short minutes) until the big PSG game in Budapest.

Crystal Palace, of course, also have a Double Gameweek this week; but Everton and City are daunting opponents; and their final two games of the season, against Brentford and Arsenal, possibly even worse. As I noted above in the injury round-up, they have a lot of tiredness and injury issues which are likely to lead to heavy rotations for their most important players. And, with nothing to play for in the league any more, keeping those players in good shape for the Europa Conference League Final at the end of the season is surely going to be the top priority.  So, I definitely can't see it being worth using transfers to bring in any additional Palace players, just for the possibility of them playing a second fixture. Indeed, I might even be inclined to offload a Palace player I already had - this DGW is really not likely to be worth much, if anything, for them.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

Home, sweet 'home'...

 

After a month or so on the road, I have arrived back in Cambodia (Siem Reap, for now).

I have spent most of the last quarter-century in East Asia, and nearly a dozen years now in South-East Asia. For the last six years I have been mainly based in the Lao P.D.R., which has many points of appeal; and I've spent a fair bit of time in Vietnam and Thailand, for which I also have a considerable fondness. But somehow,... Cambodia chimes with me that bit more than any of its neighbours. Arriving back here after a spell away - even stepping off a bus or a plane into the noise and stink and tumult of Phnom Penh - always feels strangely reassuring, comforting to me,... like a big warm hug for the soul.

And so it does again. I've been having a bit of a stressful time over the past year or two; and especially in the last few months. But now, back in Cambodia, everything suddenly feels all right again. (It isn't. But it feels like it, for now - and I'll take that.)

A beer so good they named the country after it...

The beer's pretty good too.

And.... WE'RE BACK!

 

My laptop suddenly died on me. Very suddenly - no warning signs of any distress in its operations: working just fine in the afternoon, then utterly unresponsive in the evening. 

The worst possible timing too! I'd just started a period of travelling in southern Lao: an area I'm not so familiar with, and where I'd be shifting locations frequently, with little opportunity to look around for possible assistance with computer ailments; small towns, with not much English spoken, and not much prospect of there being any decent computer shops anyway. The day before the catastrophe, I'd still been in the capital, Vientiane, which I know my way around very well, and where it should have been relatively straightforward to get a repair done - and/or buy a new laptop. (I almost invariably have a second as a back-up, but I'd just sold my older one, and hadn't yet had time to think about getting a replacement. It is particularly vexing that the defunct one is less than a year old, and has hardly been used. With careful management, I am usually able to squeeze at least 7 or 8 years of useful life out of these babies; I've never had one quit on me like this after such a short time.)

Hence, I have been cut off from my blog here for nearly three weeks. My weekly 'Zen' bons mots are mostly prepared some weeks or even months ahead, and a few other shorter posts are also sometimes 'pre-baked'', but most of my content here is written 'live', in the moment, day by day - and there's been none of that since mid-April. I've missed TWO whole Gameweeks! Sorry.

While losing touch with the title race at such a crucial juncture has been vexing (no TV available to me either in these parts; although I did rather fortuitously catch a full re-run of the epic Everton v City game when I arrived in Siem Reap the other day), the enforced digital detox has been rather refreshing.

Alas, this externally imposed virtue of Internet abstinence seems to have been compensated for by a notable lapse in virtue in other areas of my life. (I blame the weather too: the rains have been late to arrive this year, and the whole region has been sweltering under a 40+ Celsius heatwave for the past several weeks - that does rather militate against trying to do anything very active...)  I have spent a fortnight mostly just sat on terraces overlooking the Mekong, steadily slinging back cold beers and Long Island Iced Teas....

A terrace overlooking the Mekong

Putting my feet up

A prize for anyone who can identify my exact location in these snaps!

 

Now, that idyll of rustic simplicity - a blissful recreation of a pre-industrial, pre-Internet life - is over, and I must return to my habitual grind. I suppose I'll start enjoying it again before long. But at the moment, I am still missing having all day to read a book....

A little bit of Zen (93)

 

“Every man is a damn fool for at least five minutes every day; wisdom consists in not exceeding the limit.”

Elbert Hubbard

I had never heard of Hubbard until quite recently, but he seems to have been a fascinating chap, quite the Renaissance Man in the America of the late 1800s: he made a successful career in sales & marketing for a soap company in his early life, but then reacted against the industrialisation and consumerism of the modern world to become a maverick journalist, philosopher, anarcho-socialist agitator, and pioneer of the Arts & Crafts Movement. He and his second wife perished in the sinking of the Lusitania in 1915.

Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 34/35

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Well, darn it - I was without Internet access (dead laptop, and travelling in some out-of-the-way places where the connectivity might often have been very crappy anyway...) or TV for a couple of weeks or so, and struggled to catch up with the football action I'd missed (mostly brief highlights on Youtube only, rather than any full games or analysis shows) even when I was restored to the delights of 'civilization'.

So, alas, I have missed to cover the EPL eccentricities of Gameweeks 34 and 35 in this 'Luck-o-Meter' series. Galling it is - but these things happen.

A little bit of Zen (92)

 

“We must learn to accept the impermanence of all things, and find peace in the midst of change.”

Kosho Uchiyama