Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 18

I always think of December as 'Random Month': mounting exhaustion, mostly dreadful weather, the relentlessly climbing injury and suspension roster, and a slew of unpredictable 'rest rotations' lead to some yo-yo-ing form and a lot of unexpected results. Plus, of course, this week most of the players would undoubtedly far rather be home with their families, and might not be fully focused on their endeavours on the pitch.

Newcastle's woeful away form continued against Manchester United on Friday night - although Eddie Howe presumably employed 'the hairdryer' at half-time as his team re-emerged from the dressing room with more resolve and urgency, and gradually pushed the home side back into a desperate defence of their slender lead, hanging on by fingernails for the last 20 minutes. Amorim is finally showing some tactical flexibility (though perhaps only a grudging - and temporary - adaptation to the multiple player absences he's having to deal with at the moment): after morphing to more of a four-at-the-back without the ball in the last game or two, he now seems to have formalised this into a 4-2-3-1 starting formation - and this time was deployng Dorgu as an outright winger, and on the right, rather than his usual left side; he thrived here on the attacking responsibility, and claimed the winner with a crisp volley from the edge of the box (although I don't know how Dalot is getting credited with an assist on this; his long-throw into the box was not merely 'diverted' but emphatically headed clear by Woltemade at the near-post, really initiating a new 'phase of play'; I wouldn't be surprised to see that attribution overturned). Sesko and Hall both unleashed firm shots against the crossbar in the second half, Gordon put a cross-shot narrowly wide, and Dalot fluffed the best chance of the game when he stole in behind on to a chipped free-kick but hooked his half-volley over the top. There were a couple of hopeful shouts for penalties from the visitors; but those incidents don't seem to have made it into the highlights reels, so presumably there wasn't much in them. Possible further injury woes for United, with Mason Mount not able to reappear after the break, and Casemiro being withdrawn after barely an hour (although that might have been just a fatigue issue, as he rarely has the stamina for a full game any more).

City went briefly back on top of the table after their lunchtime win at Forest, but they had to work for the points, and very nearly let them slip away. Forest actually looked the better team in the first-half, and might have gone ahead after just 7 minutes when Jesus and Gibbs-White both failed by inches to get on the end of a sublime cross in behind the defence from Hudson-Odoi. Their new keeper, John Victor, was also in outstanding form, making superb saves from Cherki and Foden. Hutchinson's equaliser for the home side, finishing off an excellent team move down the left, thus felt well deserved; and they nearly grabbed the lead shortly afterwards when Donnarumma could only parry Neco Williams's low, curling effort out to the inrushing Savona, but the right-back blazed his effort miles over the bar. Forest may also feel slightly aggrieved that O'Reilly appeared to have wrestled Gibbs-White to the ground in the six-yard box just before Cherki rifled in his winner. To me, though, there really wasn't anything of substance in that shout. Forest have a stronger case that Ruben Dias should have been sent off for a second yellow card just before half-time, when he cynically clipped the heels of Igor Jesus only minutes after being booked for dissent. City, of course, get away with a lot.

Arsenal are beset with injury problems in defence: Timber was a late drop-out after feeling a sore muscle in training, and then Calafiori had a similar problem in the warm-up. They were fortunate that Hincapie, who had appeared still doubtful to start during the work, was able to step back into the centre of defence, but Rice had to deputise at right-back. Eze was not even on the bench, which may be an omnous sign. Brighton had their problems too, with Welbeck still troubled by a bad back and only on the bench, Minteh only coming on as a sub for the second-half, and Mitoma, only just fit again after a long injury absence, going down with a virus. Last-minute omissions like this upset many a Bench Boost play this week! Yet again, Arsenal didn't look particularly convincing, but did just enough to take the points from a fairly uninspired opponent: a crisp drive from outside the box from Odegaard in the first-half and a Rice corner unluckily deflected into his own net off of the top of Rutter's head midway through the second had put them comfortably ahead, but the visitors then gave them an anxious finish when Diego Gomez lashed home the rebound after Ayari's curling effort beat Raya but came back off the inside of the far post. Shortly afterwards the Arsenal keeper pulled off one of the saves of the season, flying across his goal to somehow palm away Minteh's fierce curler. Bart Verbruggen was lucky not to get sent off for cynically clattering Gyokeres when he made a fast break down the left flank: it was too far wide to be a 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity', but it did look very like 'excessive force'.

Brentford are looking more and more impressive of late, not only attacking quickly and with fluency, as their trio of forwards all look in sensational form, but also finally discovering more solidity in defence. Boutnemouth, though, put up no resistance at all; a baffled and humiliated Iraola observed ruefully that they didn't show up at all until the second-half. A consolation goal from Semenyo, improvising a neat back-heeled finish past Kelleher from close range, was their only positive moment in the game. Brentford won with swagger, and could easily have had more than just Schade's superb hat-trick, and the unfortunate Petrovic own-goal (one of his defenders cleared Thiago's effort from the goal-line but fired it straight against his helpless keeper); Lewis-Potter somehow managed to put the ball just wide of an empty goal when he rushed in to get a header on the rebound from Janelt's long-range shot against the post.

Burnley v Everton was very much the uninspired bottom-of-the-table clash. Jack Grealish has apparently gone down with a virus (although most FPL managers long ago lost enthusiasm for him, after his bright start to the season quickly fizzled out), allowing a start to Tyler Dibling, who was probably the visitors' liveliest player. Somewhat strangely, Beto was also restored to the start at centre-forward, ahead of the recently quite impressive Thierno Barry - who only made it on as a late substitute this time. Substitute Zian Flemming nearly nicked the game for Burnely in the daying minutes, when he was played in behind and tried to pass the ball into the bottom corner: the effort beat Pickford, but rebounded off the base of the post - although the Dutch forward had probably been a whisker offside. Dubravka was somehow credited with 6 saves in the game (didn't see half that many in the TV highlights!), which, in a very uneventful game, was also enough to secure him maximum bonus points.

Liverpool were able to win fairly comfortably, with good goals from Gravenbirch and Wirtz (finally breaking his duck!), but Wolves are showing signs of improvement, and fought gamely - giving the home side a few worrying moments. Nigerian forward Tolu Arokodare, replacing the recently depressed-looking Strand Larsen, was quite a livewire for them: his powerful header led to Wolves pulling a goal back, when Alisson could only parry the effort straight back at the lurking Santiago Bueno, and another free header from him was later looped on to the roof of the net. And late on, Arias was about to fire in at the far post when denied by a superb last-ditch block from substitute Conor Bradley. Wolves should surely be able to start picking up a few points soon; but it remains doubtful whether they'll be able to do enough to lift themselves out of last place, as they are now so far adrift.

West Ham v Fulham was fairly entertaining, although it nearly ended up goalless. There was some flowing attacking play from both sides, although almost none of it culminated in clearcut chances. A fizzing long-distance effort from Harry Wilson early on was well tipped over by Areola (it was quite a day for outstanding saves), and Leno was able to turn behind a fierce near-post effort from Bowen; but that was about it - until Scarles's unfortunate missed clearance late on gifted Wilson the chance to improvise a volleyed chip into the middle where Raul was waiting unmarked on the edge of the six-yard box to head home a winner.

Villa were strangely subdued in the first-half at Chelsea, barely getting a kick in the opposition half, let alone any sort of sniff of goal - though Emery implied that this might all have been part of his 'cunning plan' for the game. Their fortunes were completely revitalised when he made three substitutions just before the hour (potentially more woe for FPL managers!), one of them being Ollie Watkins, initially left on the bench but emerging as a triumphant match-winner. Chelsea just couldn't capitalise on their early dominance: they had all of the ball, but couldn't create many chances with it - and were really somewhat lucky to have nicked the lead just before half-time when Emi Martinez got too busy wrestling with opposiing players on his goal-line to watch the flight of Reece James's in-swinging corner, and it drifted straight into the net - with a little bit of help from a deflection off Joao Pedro's back (definitely a lucky goal for him; he really knew nothing about it!). Chelsea should really have had a second from the penalty spot, though (but Chelsea just aren't awarded penalties any more) when Maatsen was inexplicably excused for a handling offence in the area (he didn't know anything about it, but his arm was stretched way out from his body for no good reason, and that intervention - albeit 'inadvertent' prevented the ball from going through to Neto who would have had a clear chance to score at the far post). Watkins's equaliser was also a bit fortuitous: he had overrun the ball slightly as he dashed in behind on to Roger's neat pass and, as he stretched to get off a late shot, Sanchez had rushed out to smother it; but the ball came back off the keeper's midriff, cannoned into the striker's knees, and the ricocheting ball was lifted over the keeper's prone body and on to the inside of the post - and into the net. Villa's ability to keep in coming from behind is really quite uncanny, and is now establishing them as credible title challengers. Chelsea's inability to create scoring chances even when comfortably controlling a game is becoming a major worry: if they carry on pissing away points like this, they'll finish mid-table.

Sunderland look as if they are missing their AFCON absentees, Sadiki and Reinildo et al, and also lost their defensive colossus Dan Ballard with an ankle injury just before the match. However, AFCON reject Adingra (a surprise omission by the Ivory Coast, presumably because he's got so few minutes so far since his move to Sunderland) put them in front with a neat curler (although I was surprised not to see it ruled 'offside' by the tip of his shoulder; to the naked eye, it looked as if he was), and Brobbey should have doubled the lead soon after, but his powerful header glanced off the top of the bar. Visitors Leeds, though, had looked much the better team, and had nearly gone in front when Aaronson's effort was briliantly cleared on the line by Hume. Eventually their superiority told, when Calvert-Lewin was able to ghost in between the two centre-backs to tap home Aaronson's great cross; his remarkable scoring streak is now a club record in the Premier League (he barely got another touch all game; but that's what good centre-forwards do...: one chance, one goal). Leeds defender Joe Rodon (who's been in the top 20 or 30 most popular FPL defenders all season, because of his attractive inital price-point) had to limp off in the first-half, after suffering two heavy challenges in quick succession that badly rolled his right ankle both times (Brobbey was lucky not to receive a red card for the first one, which was really a very wild challenge).

Palace and Spurs - like many teams at this point in the year - both looked tired and jaded, and produce a very stale end to the gameweek. Spurs produced a performance that was gutsy, rather than convincing; they produced a late flurry of attacks as Palace were chasing the game, with Richarlison being denied a goal for a (fairly clear) offside, for the second time in the game; and Odobert, released on a quick break behind, firing off a crisp drive on the half-volley from 23 yards out that slammed against the foot of the near post. Apart from that late surge of excitement, though, the visitors were hardly in the game: their scrambled goal from a poorly defended corner just before half-time was very much against the general run of play. Palace utterly dominated for most of the game, but couldn't make their superiority pay: Mateta, Lacroix, and Guehi all enjoyed inviting opportunites in front of goal, but couldn't direct their headers on target.

The FPL 'Team of the Week' astonishingly included 3 Manchester United defenders at first (although Ayden Heaven was later bumped off the list by Micky Van de Ven), and Martin Dubravka in goal, Ollie Watkins as the sole forward, and Schade, Cherki, Gravenberch, Wirtz and Odegaard in midfield: excellent players - but not ones with any significant ownership in FPL! The fairly low number of goals, and again some last-minute injury omissions and other selection surprises also add to the 'luck' quotient somewhat. And, despite there being a number of use-them-or-lose-them chips in play, it turned out to be yet another shockingly low 'global average' score - just 44 points this week! (So many of those these dismal averages this year; this is somehow the lowest-scoring season I can remember.) Among the top 30 most-owned players in FPL, only Semenyo and Saka have produced anything this time (well, and Dubravka; but most people only have him as a back-up option and rarely or never actually start him!).

Chelsea should really have had a penalty for a Maatsen handball, which might have changed the outcome of the game; Verbruggen and Brobbey might have been sent off for bad fouls, and Ruben Dias definitely should have been for a clear second-yellow offence. Astonishingly, though, that counts as 'not too bad' for refereeing errors this season!  Nevertheless, this makes it overall about a 6 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.

Another little bit of Christmas fun

For anyone growing up in the UK in the '70s or early '80s, veteran comedy double-act Morecambe & Wise's 'Christmas Special' TV show on the BBC became more of a central institution of the family Christmas than the Queen's annual 'Message to the Commonwealth', a highlight of the year anticipated for weeks beforehand.

The secret of the duo's showbiz longevity was the remarkable chemistry they shared, along with Eric Morecambe's peerless deadpan delivery; but the Christmas shows were also often memorable for some fantastic bits of visual inventiveness - like this.....

Merry Christmas, again!

Dilemmas of the Week - GW18 (25/26)

With the only midweek game this week being the last of the League Cup quarter-finals between Arsenal and Crystal Palace this Tuesday, most clubs have gone through nearly a full week of no football (and probably not much training!), so there are not many newly emerging injury worries for this gameweek - apart from the few players who got crocked in last weekend's batch of games. However, December is invariably the most unpredictable month of the season (well, except insofar as it's predictably disappointing for FPL managers every year!), and the 'holiday weekend' is typically the most random gameweek of the entire year. Most teams have had briefer or more irregular training this week, as they try to allow their players a little bit of time with their families. Some players may have indulged ever so slightly in over-eating or eating less healthy foods than usual, and perhaps even having a naughty glass or two of alcohol; and even the ones who have been super-disciplined about that are.... probably not quite 100% focused on their football just at the moment. (For one thing, many players have young children, who probably woke them up ridiculously early yesterday morning!)

So, absolutely anything could happen in this next set of games; and it's almost certainly again not going to be a good week to risk playing any of the bonus chips (although many FPL managers may have to, because they haven't yet found any especially propitious moment to use all the extra chips we were given this year, and have now run out of time to do so). Moreover, it's a particularly unpromising set of fixtures to be risking a chip in, even if it had come at a less difficult time of the year: almost all of this weekend's fixtures are uncannily evenly matched: only Liverpool v Wolves and Forest v City look like having an obvious outcome.

I'm trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 18?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Piero Hincapie picked up a knock in the Everton game last weekend, and was unable to take part in the midweek Cup game against Palace; he seems likely to be out for a little while. At least Saliba seems to be fit to make a regular return, so Arsenal's crisis in central defence isn't yet acute - but it does seem likely that Calafiori or Timber will have to be moved into central defence (and the other of the two assigned to the right-back role), creating the prospect for Myles Lewis-Skelly to get a few starts on the left at last.

Jan-Paul van Hecke missed the game against Sunderland last week with illness, but was expected to be back in training at the end of this week. (There has been a lot of transfer talk around him lately, though; so, there is a danger that a move to another club next month, or the possibility of such, may soon rule him out.)

Burnley defender Maxime Esteve missed last week with a training knock; supposedly back with the team now, but still doubtful for this weekend. (He was actually a very popular FPL pick early in the season because of his low starting price, and still features in nearly 11% of squads.)

Palace's Eddie Nketiah and Chris Richards both suffered knocks in the Tuesday night Cup defeat to Arsenal. Nketiah's seems minor, and he might be available for the Spurs game, at least off the bench. But a painful blow on the foot for Richards needed him to be taken off on a stretcher, and although not as serious as first feared, it does seem likely to keep him out for a week or two. That leaves Palace rather short in defence, and it's probable that someone like Jefferson Lerma will have to deputise on the right side of the back-three.

Harry Wilson, a recently very popular FPL pick, had to come off in Monday night's game against Forest with a knock to his knee, but Marco Silva sounds modestly confident that he'll be OK this weekend.

Conor Bradley again had to come off with an injury against Spurs last week; no news on the nature of that problem, but he was not expected to be able to train at all this week. Fortunately, it looks like Frimpong may finally be ready for regular minutes again - although he's not the strongest defensively, and that could be a problem with Liverpool are still struggling to steady the ship after an horrendous couple of months. Alexander Isak looked likely to be out for the season after a heavy collision with Micky Van de Ven, in the act of scoring his goal last week, visibly twisted his leg and surely inflicted massive stress on both his left ankle and knee. Fortunately, the knee ligaments seem to have come through somehow intact, and although he needed surgery on the ankle (including setting a cracked bone just above the joint), Slot is optimistic that he could return to action by the end of the season.

The biggest injury news ot the week is surely that Bruno Fernandes (the 5th most-owned midfielder in the game) had to come off at half-time in Sunday night's game at Villa, after suffering a hamstring strain; it seems not too serious, but may keep him out for at least a couple of weeks. Curiously, it looks as though returning centre-back Lisandro Martinez might replace him in the middle alongside Casemiro rather than the struggling Manuel Ugarte (Mason Mount could also do a job there, but they probably need him up-front at the moment) - although, given Amorim's relentless penchant for varying his selections every week, perhaps they'll just randomly cycle through each of their defenders in turn as a makeshift holding midfielder (I can see Luke Shaw being quite a decent fit for the role)...

Tino Livramento had to come off with a knee injury in the League Cup against Fulham just over a week ago; Eddie Howe is hopeful that it's not too serious after all, but it still needs further assessment. Lewis Miley seems likely to continue to deputise at right-back, since the club doesn't have any other fit defenders now.

Forest winger Dan Ndoye had to miss Monday's game against Fulham with a training injury; not too serious, but going to keep him out this weekend.

Wolves defenders Toti and Hugo Bueno missed the Brentford game last week with training injuries; Bueno's seems not too bad, and he's already rejoined training, but Toti apparently has quite a bad hamstring strain and could be out for several weeks.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Double trouble for poor Spurs as Xavi Simons picked up a three-match 'violent conduct' ban last week for clumsily raking his studs down the back of Virgil Van Dijk's calf, while Cristian Romero earned a one-match ban for two yellow cards in the same game (and was really very lucky it wasn't more, as his petulant jerking of his shin into Konate's chest when they were sitting on the ground beside each other could easily have also been construed as 'violent conduct').

And Sunderland's Luke O'Nien is serving the last part of his three-game ban this week.

At least Dominik Szoboszlai is the only new player to pick up a suspension for amassing 5 yellow cards. But we still have two gameweeks to go before the mid-season amnesty on 'totting up'; these are the players still at risk of an imminent suspension.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Spurs and Forest players are starting to look like poison at the moment...

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

There are some interesting new possibilities opening up in defence, with Keane Lewis-Potter at Brentford (a 'defender' now starting as part of the attacking trident, and looking very confident in front of goal) and Antonee Robinson (back at last from a long injury absence, and likely to get as many minutes as he can stand, now that his positional rival Ryan Sessegnon is out of the picture for a little while), who is immediately reminding us that he's probably the best crosser of a ball among all the league's full-backs, Lewis Hall finally back for Newcastle, and Tyrick Mitchell suddenly enjoying a lot more prominence in games now that his more illustrious partner Munoz is off the scene for a few weeks. Although Bournemouth overall have been in a worrying slump, Antoine Semenyo has continued to look outstanding, and seems to have now recovered his goal magic once more. And Dominic Calvert-Lewin has found a nice vein of goalscoring form lately; but he's never historically managed to keep those going for very long, and although Leeds are enjoying quite a resurgence in their last few outings, they still don't have any truly 'easy' games - and at least 3 or 4 of their next 6 matches are likely to be really hard.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

A Christmas treat from ACFC

The excellent Adam Clery Football Channel (the best analysis show on Youtube; only founded at the tail-end of last season, but immediately indispensable) yesterday posted a 'Christmas Special' - a great little breakdown on The Greatest Moment Ever In English Sport, our majestic defeat of West Germany in the 1966 World Cup Final at Wembley. [And he's promised another 'historical' anaysis for the holidays soon, an examination of Leicester's extraordinary title-winning season.]

If you feel like watching the full match (it is a hell of a game), here it is:

I could have sworn I'd once been able to watch a colour version of the full match (shot on film for FIFA, where I assume this must be videotape of the BBC black-and-white TV coverage), but it doesn't seem to be available on Youtube at the moment; there are highlights only in colour. 

The Wembley crowd's singing of the National Anthem after the presentation of the trophy is the only time I have ever heard it sounding happy.

A little bit of Zen (74)

 

"An idea fully formed and put into action is more perfect than an idea that exists only as an idea."

The Buddha

I haven't been able to find a source for this quotation. And it sounds deeply fake to me. I think it is a wise and true concept; but I doubt if it can be reliably attributed to any Buddhist scripture.

Here it is.....!

 

For an Englishman like me, there is only one 'Best Christmas Song of All Time'; and it's certainly not the cringe-inducing Wham! or the saccharine Mariah Carey offerings that get so exasperatingly overplayed at this time of year. No, of course, it's 'Merry Xmas, Everybody!' by Slade - an actual celebration of the occasion, rather than just a routine love song cynically grafted into a seasonal setting, and just the right combination of simplistic structure but great melody and raucous rock energy to propel it into the stratosphere of ageless anthemic songs.  What would Christmas be without it?

Merry Christmas, Everybody!!!

And one final thing....

Dear Santa - I know you're very busy today; and I know I've already asked for a lot,.... but, if you can't give me back the match scores in FPL 'Player Info' or add 'defensive points' to the stats,.... could you at least see to it that the bastard bloody website doesn't keep logging me out 2 or 3 times a day?? 

Thank you!

That would make it such a lovely Christmas for all of us long-suffering FPL managers....

Probably too much to hope for, though.

Dear Santa - Could FPL show us how many 'defensive points' our players have got?

Another Seasonal wish - directed to the Gnomes (or Elves) at FPL Towers....

Over the years, we have, unfortunately grown used to - and begun to accept - the bizarre and exasperating fact that, while FPL's own stats summaries list the number of saves each goalkeeper has been credited with, they omit to include any mention of the number of points they've cumulatively received for those saves.

With the introduction of the opaque, bizarre, and unnecessary 'defensive points' this year, we really shouldn't be surprised to find that there's a similar oversight here: the FPL website records the number of eligible 'defensive contributions' ascribed to each player, but doesn't bother to tally the number of 'defensive points' they've earned over the season.

What gives, FPL???

An extra 'Little bit of Zen'

"The act of picking up and opening a book masks the counter-gesture that occurs at the same time: the involuntary act of not picking up and not opening every other book in the universe."

Pierre Bayard  -  'How To Talk About Books You Haven't Read'

I think this idea returned to my mind just now because I gave this book as a Christmas present to a crush of mine a few years ago (this is probably why I have such a limited love life...).  Bayard is a French literature professor (and philosopher and psychoanalyst?!) who achieved a modest popular success 15 or 20 years ago with this playful, elegantly witty little treatise on how reading maybe isn't all it's cracked up to be (I disagree with this central thesis; but he plainly wasn't entirely serious about his propositions to that effect).

One of most thought-provoking of the observations in his book is the disturbing reminder above that reading is inextricably linked with non-reading - that every positive choice we make inevitably contains within it a much larger number of (often regrettable) rejections and omissions. 

This is the essence of opportunity cost. And that, of course, is central to the game of Fantasy Premier League - as to all else. Every player we pick in our starting team leaves out three players on the bench; every player we choose to transfer in leaves hundreds more unselected. We have to try to simplify these decisions to make them seem less daunting, less intractable, less impossible. But I think most people tend to overdo this, to radically over-simplify their selection process - too readily dismissing alternative options that should at least be given a moment's serious consideration. We should not let the multiplicity of possible choices stun us into hopelessness and inertia, but rather try to see it as an impetus to choose more carefully.

Dear Santa - Can we have the match results back in FPL 'Player Info'?

 

A simple Seasonal wish - directed to the Gnomes (or Elves) at FPL Towers....

As I complained at the end of last season, the 'Player Info' screens on the FPL website are an absolute abomination. Of course, our FPL overlords didn't take my observations about this onboard and implement any of the simple improvements I suggested in that post - not even the very elementary one of, if you insist on it being a pop-up screen rather than a full screen to be opened in a new tab, you could at least make it a BIG pop-up, near full-screen size, to obviate the need for those maddeningly fiddly scroller bars.

In fact, they've contrived to make this horrendous aspect of their UI design even worse this year, by making it into an even smaller pop-up.

Because of this, I've rather got out of the habit of using this feature at all. I get nearly all my stats from elsewhere now - even though it can be a little bit of a pain-in-the-arse to have to dodge around multiple different sites (or to have to resort to Google to try to find a source for something) rather than being able to find everything you need easily within FPL's own website.

So it was that I've only recently noticed that in addition to making the 'Player Info' pop-up screens unusably titchy, they've also dropped the match scores for the gameweeks from the first label-column on the left. We must be grateful, I suppose, that they still deign to include the name of the opponent, and whether the fixture was home or away, and whether it ended in a win, loss, or draw... But no scoreline?? Really??

It has become hard to tell if the management of The Fantasy Premier League enterprise are very stupid, very lazy, or just utterly contemptuous of the game's users. I rather suspect it must be ALL THREE.

Sometimes.... BRAVERY pays off

LBJ's Brass Balls

I had always thought that this Gameweek 17 fixture, at home, against West Ham, would be Erling's Haaland's best prospect for a big haul in the first half of the season - and thus the prime opportunity for betting the Triple Captain chip on him.

But it would have been a very, very risky play to hang on this long, to ignore all the tempting rival options for the chip in earlier fixtures...

West Ham looked the worst team in the league at the start of the season; but they might have improved. And they have: quickly getting rid of the anodyne Graham Potter was a positive step, and there have been some promising signs for them under Nuno Espiritu Santo's stewardship since - although they're still often a bit ropey in defence, especially on set-pieces.

City might not have been able to maintain a strong title challenge this year - especially after they lost Rodri again so early on. But in fact, they have steadily got better and better, after a rather shakey start.

The big Viking might have picked up an injury by now, or suffered a bit of a dip in form; but in fact, he's having his best season yet, maintaining an astonishing level of consistency in output all the way through to the middle of the football year.

So - waiting till now to use the Triple Captain on him.... has paid off very nicely! But damn, you needed cojones to hang on for this long!! 

And it probably wasn't the smart move for this chip. Waiting this long was too big a risk; and if the plan had gone awry at the last minute, because of a late injury to Haaland, you'd have few other remaining options for using the chip, with just two more gameweeks in its validity period after this one.

If you enjoy a big success on the Triple Captain chip - or any of the bonus chips - you should maintain a due sense of humility. 

A one-off punt like this always has a bigger chance of going horribly wrong than it does of succeeding. And if you wait until the very tail-end of their availability window to play one of the bonus chips, the chance of that play going very, very wrong is greatly increased. 

A big return from a chip - however 'likely' it seemed - is always to a large extent LUCKY.

[The picture at the top is of a giant 'Brass Balls' sculpture, supposedly those of US President Lyndon Johnson (who famously complained of his trousers always being too tight in the crotch!), recently commissioned as a joke by John Oliver (standing next to the huge hanging scrotum here), the presenter of award-winning Sunday night political comedy show 'Last Week Tonight'.]

Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 17

 

I always think of December as 'Random Month': mounting exhaustion, mostly dreadful weather, and a slew of unpredictable 'rest rotations' lead to some yo-yo-ing form and a lot of unexpected results. The seasonal injury crisis is starting to get really bad. And several clubs are also now reeling from the departure of some of their best players to the African Cup of Nations (Fulham, Sunderland, and Manchester United are likely to suffer the most, I suspect).

It was very much the proverbial 'game of two halves' at St James' Park, with Newcastle getting the wind in their sails when Woltemade put them ahead after just 3 minutes. A ramshackle Chelsea can count themselves lucky not to have been 4 or 5 down by half-time, rather than only 2 behind; Woltemade spurned a couple of good chances to complete his hattrick before the break! The visitors were unlucky not to have the chance to pull one back from a penalty, though, when Gordon clearly handled the ball on the edge of his own box; the argument in his favour was presumably that the ball had bounced up from his thigh on to his lower arm; but it wasn't travelling that fast, and he did seem to make a deliberate movement to control the ball. This did feel like another pretty egregious example of The Unwritten Law since the beginning of last season that Chelsea - and Palmer! - are not to be awarded any penalties, if there's any way at all of avoiding the decision. However, things balanced up again in the second half when, although Chelsea were now dominant, Newcastle had two good chances thwarted by blatant fouls in the box. Chalobah's challenge on Gordon was presumably classified as a 'shoulder-to-shoulder' contact, but it was actually a violent stepping across and into the player, making thigh-to-thigh and knee-to-knee contact with so much force that it smacked Gordon off his feet (and extended his knee-joint inwards in a way that might well have ruptured the ligaments, and must surely at least have strained them pretty badly): a horrible foul, and an unarguable penalty. Later on, Reece James made a heroic last-ditch sliding block on Harvey Barnes; but, while he is to be commended for his exceptional effort to regain the ground to cover, he didn't appear to get any of the ball; and even if he did, I don't think that could excuse the way he wiped out the player. James was also extraordinarily lucky not to get sent off for a 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity' offence just outside the box in the closing minutes of the game: his tug on Barnes's arm was very slight, but it was unmistakeable, and it did crucially impede his progress. A case could be made that the ball was running away from Barnes and Sanchez was always going to get there first; but if his run hadn't been interrupted, that might have been a bit of a 50/50 call, and the keeper might have blinked and backed off a little, rather than risk a high-speed collision. It is absolutely bizarre that James didn't at least get a yellow card for such a cynical foul. There were a number of other very bad decisions in this game, including a couple of ugly challenges that might - probably should - have been straight-red incidents. Andy Madley - and his VAR team - had a horrible day at the office here, and got the gameweek off to a blazing start on the old Luck-o-Meter! Although Chelsea were much improved in the second-half, and had the home side on the rack for much of it, Newcastle surged back gamely in the last quarter of an hour, mounting wave after wave of attacks; Barnes's flying volley in the dying minutes was only inches wide of the post - and Newcastle would probably have been the more deserving winners overall, if only narrowly.

Bournemouth looked fairly comfortably in control against struggling Burnley, but only another fine goal from Semenyo - his second in five days, which might suggest that he has recovered the goalscoring form he was showing at the start of the season - was sepaating the teams; and Iraola will no doubt be dumbfounded that his boys somehow allowed Armanda Broja to power home a free header from a short corner routine in the final seconds of regular time. A valuable point for Burnley; but, with Leeds suddenly resurgent, they are now looking like the weakest side in the relegation battle.

Brighton, as feared, had to do without Danny Welbeck, who's been suffering with back problems. This left them woeifully short of firepower, although they were well below their best in this one and didn't even create very much; their two best chances fell to Yasin Ayari, who blazed them both over the top. Sunderland were also dogged but uninspired, and created no threat apart from a powerful header from Alderete which brought the save of the day out of Verbruggen. Dan Ballard was very lucky to get only a yellow card for a very late and high challenge on Kostoulas. Otherwise, this was a pretty uneventful game.

City predictably rolled over West Ham, and those who bravely hung on for this fixture to bet their Triple Captain chip on Haaland were well rewarded; the big Viking, in fact, came very close to bagging another hattrick late in the game, as well as playing in Reijnders for the second. Foden looked lively again, but, fairly inevitably, couldn't keep his astonishing FPL scoring streak going. He was unlucky, though, to miss out on an assist for the opening goal because Haaland uncharacteristically failed to convert the chance he'd given him at the first attempt and had to follow up on the rebound from Areola's save.

Brentford worked patiently to break down Wolves, and were eventually rewarded with two very slick finishes from Lewis-Potter, who is looking like he might thrive during Dango Ouattara's AFCON absence, and may be becoming a very appealing option in FPL - especially as he's classified as a 'defender'. Kelleher was unfortunate to give away a penalty late on, but was then gifted a chance to save it by a truly awful spot-kick from Strand Larsen: a very lucky break for any FPL managers who'd relied on the keeper for a Free Hit or Bench Boost play this week.

Spurs put on a spirited display against visiting Liverpool, despite being reduced to 10 men by Xavi Simons's deserved dismissal for a ridiculous challenge through the back of his countryman Van Dijk after just half an hour. After going behind to an Isak goal early in the second-half, they actually produced some good chances of their own, but their hopes in the game were soon dashed by a second goal from Ekitike. Richarlison's consolation goal in the 83rd minute, after Liverpool repeatedly failed to clear the ball in a protracted goalmouth scramble following a corner, gave the home side some slight hope; and they even managed one more good chance from Odobert, well saved by Alisson in the dying minutes, even after going down to just 9 men as Romero got himself sent off for a second booking (a relatively trivial but petulant swipe at Konate that might well have been interpreted as a 'violent conduct' red-card offence). In general, the refereeing was pretty good in this one, with no major controversies. The big news for FPL is that it looks as though Isak has probably done his knee ligaments in the act of scoring his goal; unfortunately, Van de Ven's attempt to block scissored him and pinned his left leg, bending it sideways. Although he managed to hobble off the pitch without calling for the stretcher, it did look as if this might well be a season-ending injury.

Arsenal were somewhat fortunate to hang on to the league lead for Christmas, with another unconvincing display that was just good enough at Everton. Trossard cracked a good effort against a post in the second-half, and near the end Saka nearly curled a corner straight in, which had to be clawed away from under the bar by Pickford; but apart from that, the title frontrunners didn't turn their dominance into many clearcut chances, and were lucky that O'Brien's silly handball had gifted them the lead from the penalty spot. The home side looked much more dangerous in the second-half, and really should have had a penalty when Zubimendi clumsily ran into the back of Barry on the edge of the box - yet another game-changing bad decision on one of the worst days of refereeing this season! Some felt the later incident when Saliba clipped Barry's heel as they both stretched to kick a high ball was an even stronger shout, although I found myself - for once - in sympathy with the VAR appraisal that it was an insignificant contact. But I'm not sure what the precise wording of the rules and guidelines on these situations is any more; if any kind of foot-on-foot contact is supposed to be a strict liability offence, then it should have been a penalty. Superstitious Arsenal fans may now be getting a bit nervous that being top at Christmas is not a good omen for them; they've been here in the last two seasons as well, and twice during the Wenger era, and have not yet gone on to lift the trophy.

Another absolutely atrocious decision in the Leeds v Palace game, when Tyrick Mitchell went sliding into Aaronson at the front corner of the box and wiped him out; it was so 'out of control', it probably should have been a red card; and he got absolutely nothing of the ball, so it was undeniably a penalty - but the Palace defender didn't even get a yellow card for it. And once more VAR sat on their hands and said nothing. It didn't ultimately make any difference to the match outcome as the home side bulldozed their weary-looking visitors aside. It is rather baffling how Palace, hitherto one of the best defensive sides in the league, seemed to have no idea how to combat the home side's numerous set-piece routines here, especially from Ampadu's long throws; even more baffling that, with three central defenders, they left the not very physically imposing Adam Wharton to mark Calvert-Lewin. Many FPL managers may have been relying on Dean Henderson for a Free Hit or Bench Boost play this week, as Palace were one of the favourites to keep a clean sheet in this batch of fixtures; but the England No. 2 really did not have a good game here.

Villa and Manchester United produced one of the most entertaining games of the weekend on Sunday. United are starting to show much more cohesion and incisiveness in the final third, their press becoming much more effective, and Cunha finally starting to threaten the goal again (although still a long way from the form he was showing at Wolves last year). But Amorim's protestation afterwards that they were the better side looks delusional; they still lacked any steel in the middle (Ugarte is a joke at this level, and this role is really not Bruno's forte), and were often shockingly poor in defence. United did indeed have probably the better of the chances, especially as they pushed to get back into the game during the last 20 minutes - and Cunha headed wide from one of the best openings in the game. The difference was ultimately Morgan Rogers, who produced two lovely curling shots to undo the visitors (and they'd only really briefly got back into the game due to Matty Cash's uncharacteristic error, giving away possession on the edge of his own box). The most significant aspect of the game for FPL was Bruno Fernandes becoming the latest victim of the seasonal hamstring tweaks: he withdrewfrom the game at half-time, and now seems likely to be out for at least 2-3 weeks. United are so thin in midfield (Kobbie Mainoo was completely missing from the squad, allegedly suffering with a calf-strain - though you wonder if he's getting ready to leave the club in January) that they had to replace Bruno with centre-back Lisandro Martinez; he didn't too badly, and tried a pop at goal from 25 yards that went fairly close - I can see him continuing in the role, alongside Casemiro, while Bruno's missing. No questionable refereeing here, for once. The one major talking point of the game was why Emi Martinez was allowed to stay on the pitch when he must obviously have suffered at least a mild concussion after getting clouted in the side of the head by Cash's knee mid-way through the first-half. The game's supposed 'concussion protocols' are still not as clear, as strict, as protective as they ought to be.

 

The gameweek's final match-up on Monday evening looked to be quite an entertaining encounter, with plenty of fluid end-to-end football - but not many high-quality chances for either side (although Raul and Igor Jesus may both feel they should have picked up one or two goals). In the end, it was decided by Douglas Luiz clumsily giving away a penalty deep in first-half stoppage time - a slight contact, but an undenable one, as he lunged for the ball while sat on the ground and caught the back of Kevin's heel. However, Forest should arguably have had a penalty themselves in the second-half when Raul cannily nudged Milenkovic in the back and sent him sprawling as he jumped to try to head home a cross to the far post. Fulham's Brazilian winger Kevin looks as though he could prove a handful, if now given a run of regular starts; and it's nice to see Antonee Robinson starting to look back to his old self at left-back at last.

The FPL 'Team of the Week' isn't looking quite so crazy as it usually has so far this season, but few would have been expecting Ethan Ampadu or Keane Lewis-Potter - or Dominic Calvert-Lewin! - to crash the list. The large number of FPL managers playing one of the bonus chips - perhaps most commonly, the Triple Captain on Haaland; but there were other possible options for that chip this weekend, and a lot of people were also taking a chance on their Bench Boost or Free Hit, as they're running out of time to use them - will wildly skew the points distribution this week, and considerably bump up the 'average' score. Unlike many recent weeks, a lot of people - nearly all the 'better' managers that I check up on -  are substantially beating the 'global average' of 66 this time: the general range seems to be about 75-90 pooints, although quite a few people have been able to do 15-20 points better than that if they played a chip successfully. Also. unlike last week, there were hardly any in-game injuries, early substitutions or surprise omissions. And Leeds's big win over Palace has been the only surprising result so far.

However, that was one of the worst Saturdays of refereeing we've seen for a very long time (of course, there were a lot of games), with 5 or 6 egregious penalty awards somehow not given, and a number of players very, very lucky to escape red cards. Andy Madley's horror-show at Newcastle on its own probably would probably make this ganeweek at least a 6 or 7, and I think overall it's looking like an 8 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.

Dilemmas of the Week - GW17 (25/26)

After the frenzy of quickfire fixtures around the turn of the month, followed for several teams by a highly consequential sixth tie in the group phase of the European competitions, being 'back to normal' for a little while now feels tremendously restful - really quite a little holiday. But of course, things start getting a bit crazy again at the end of next week. And even this week, we had 5 Premier League teams - Chelsea, Newcastle, Fulham, City and Brentford - involved in League Cup Quarter-Finals, which have taken a further little toll in injuries. And Palace and Arsenal's tie in that competition is still to come, next Tuesday. (If England's football authorities were to take one step to slightly ease the insane fixture congestion in the modern game, I really don't think anyone would mind seeing this competition being restricted - as its name already implies - to just those clubs competing under the umbrella of the English Football League, i.e., the top three tiers of the game outside of the Premier League [which is a separate and superior entity]. Many Premier League teams would obviously prefer to exit the event fairly quickly; and almost all of them regularly field a 'B side', at least until the latter stages, demonstrating that none of them really care all that much about it.)

Also, most clubs will be reeling from having lost a key player or two (or, in some cases, even more) to the African Cup of Nations, which kicks off this Sunday. That is a further element of unpredictability we have to grapple with this weekend!

I'm trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 17?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

The inevitable surge in seasonal injuries has really begun to kick in big time, with Ben White, Daichi Kamada, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Jack Grealish, Joe Gomez, and Jean-Ricner Bellegarde all having to come off in last weekend's games with pulled thigh-muscles. No clear news on any of them yet, I don't think; all seem likely to be kept on the sidelines for at least 3 weeks or so, but it could be 2 months or more if any of them prove to be serious cases. We also saw Dominic Szoboszlai limping from a heavy knock to the ankle in the Brighton game. Dan Burn, who had to come off against Sunderland after taking a heavy blow to the ribs, is apparently going to be out of action for 4-6 weeks (so, presumably he must have broken some ribs?). Jeremy Doku, who was a surprise late omission from City's match against Palace after a training mishap, has now been confirmed as being likely to miss about 2 weeks with a leg injury. And Bournemouth's Tyler Adams came off in Monday night's thriller at Old Trafford; Iraola said he thought it was an MCL (Medial Collateral Ligament) problem rather than ACL, and not too serious - but it could still keep him out for a few weeks at least.

Danny Welbeck has been struggling with a sore back and hasn't trained much this week, but Hurzeler is modestly hopeful he might be OK this weekend.

Igor Thiago and Jordan Henderson are also both struggling with knocks which kept them out of the midweek League Cup defeat by City. Oscar Bobb came off very early in that match; apparently yet another hamstring injury.

Estevao also had to miss the midweek League Cup game with a minor muscle injury; he is expected to be able to play again after Christmas.

As well as being without Dan Burn, Newcastle had to rest Lewis Hall for the League Cup game against Fulham because of some ominous tightness in the thigh, and he's still considered doubtful for this weekend. And Tino Livramento had to come off in the Fulham game with a knee injury that looks as if it might be at least moderately serious. With Kieran Trippier and Emil Krafth already on the injury list, and not expected to be able to return for at least another couple of weeks, it appears that Newcastle no longer have any specialist full-backs available to them - unless they promote someone from the youth team. (Lewis Miley did a decent job filling in at right-back in the League Cup game, but I wouldn't expect that to be a regular assignment.) I wonder if Howe might switch to a back-three for a while, and try to deploy players like Gordon, Ramsey, Willock or Murphy, or maybe even Elanga, as wing-backs rather than wide attacking players. And at least Yoane Wissa is now available again as an additional attacking option, having played well and scored a fine poacher's goal in the League Cup victory.

Fulham's Sasa Lukic also had to be withdrawn at half-time in that League Cup game with tightness in the groin; though that might have been just 'precautionary'.

Forest midfielder Nicolas Dominguez had to miss last week's win over Spurs with an unspecified knee problem, and goalkeeper Matz Sels also had to give way to his understudy John Victor because of a sore groin muscle.

It's a lucky FPL manager who isn't going to be missing at least 1 of those. Actually, that would be extraordinarily lucky! You're pretty fortunate if you've only got 2 or 3 players here wiped out or extremely doubtful for this week. [This is why it's so dangerous to try to play a Bench Boost in the bleak midwinter.]

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Jadon Sancho is still a Manchester United player, so can't turn out for Villa against them on Sunday (though Emery hasn't been making much use of him anyway).

Lewis Dunk, Diego Gomez, Casemiro, and Yerson Mosquera are the latest players to earn a one-match ban for picking up a 5th booking of the season. Here the other players now getting close to a 'totting up' suspension.

Sunderland's Luke O'Nien is serving the second part of his three-match ban for a sending-off for 'serious foul play' near the end of the City game a fortnight ago.

Sunderland are likely to be particularly hard-hit by the AFCON departures, losing their midfield lynchpin Sadiki and their first-choice left-back Reinildo, as well as the more intermittently used Talbi, Traore, Masuaku, and Diarra (although at least they'll still have Simon Adingra still avaiable, as he was unexpectedly omitted from the Ivory Coast squad - because he's been getting so few minutes thus far at Sunderland). Manchester United have to do without their only regular goalscorer so far, Mbeumo, as well as wide attacker Amad and back-up defender Mazraoui, while West Ham are losing their preferred full-backs on both sides, Wan-Bissaka and Diouf,; Everton will surely suffer without the influential Ndiaye and Idrissa Gueye, and already struggling Fulham could perhaps implode without their influential Nigerian trio of Bassey, Iwobi, and Chukwueze.

Brentford lose Dango Ouattara and Frank Onyeka, Brighton their commanding midfield stopper Baleba, Burnley lose Tuanzebe, Foster, and Hannibal (though he's currently banned anyway),  Palace lose Ismaila Sarr, Liverpool lose Salah, City lose Marmoush and Ait-Nouri (although the latter hasn't been getting any game time anyway), Spurs lose Pape Sarr and Bissouma, while Forest must do without Sangaré (who was superb in the Spurs game last week) and back-up defender Boly.

The 'good news' is that few FPL managers owned any of these anyway, apart from Bryan Mbeumo. And the 'jolly super news' was that 3 of the next most popular African players in FPL so far this year, Antoine Semenyo and Mo Kudus (Ghana) and Yankuba Minteh (Gambia) missed out on qualifying for the tournament this year.

As I observed a few weeks ago, the main impact of AFCON on our FPL fortunes this time around is not going to be felt in the players we lose from our teams (few, if any) but in the effects it may have on the Premier League sides who lose key players; form is going to be even more uncertain, match results even more unpredictable for the next few weeks. At least most of these players should be back again in time for Gameweek 21, kicking off on the 7th January. But any who make it through to the knockout stages won't be available again GW22 or GW23 - perhaps even GW24 for the Finalists.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Fortunately, no. But - even with FPL's generous Early Christmas Present of extra Free Transfers last week! - I doubt if any of us enjoy the luxury of being able to drop someone this week just for showing dodgy form. It seems likely that every available transfer is going to be needed to address injury and suspension issues over the next few weeks.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Well, Phil Foden does appear to have become the season's 3rd 'essential' pick (after Haaland, and an Arsenal defender...) - even though it's almost certain that he won't produce half as many points over the next 5 or 6 gameweeks as he just has in that remarkable fortnight around the turn of the month! But damn, Rayan Cherki has been looking very, very good of late as well (if you fancy going against the tide...). Harry Wilson and Bruno Fernandes are also justifiably popular picks this week, after a storming run of form over the past 4 gameweeks (trouble is, really hot streaks like this rarely last more than 4 games...). Hugo Ekitike and Morgan Rogers are also being heavily transferred in; but, although they've been playing superbly, I doubt if there's reliable long-term FPL value in them: Villa have been massively over-performing, and are due a downward blip, while Liverpool are only just starting to sort themselves out - and may now be facing another step backwards, without Szoboszlai, Gakpo, Salah, or any recognised right-back [ah, I forgot Bradley's fit again; so, things aren't quite that bad...].  [Well, I was 'wrong' about Villa and Morgan Rogers; they keep grinding out the wins, even without playing that well - which is usually a sign of a potential champion! I'm still a bit wary about young Morgan for FPL, though; he's been in a super-hot little spell of form lately, but he's never in the past been a super-prolific points producer: only a few double-digit hauls per season, almost never gets back-to-back hauls of any sort at all. And I was right about Foden's and Wilson's and Fernandes's streaks coming to an end.]

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

A little bit of Zen (73)

 

"Something so comfortable, familiar and perfectly nostalgic - frankly, we have no desire to improve upon it at all.”

Joana Gaines

Ms Gaines (apparently an American TV presenter of modest celebrity) was ostensibly talking about Christmas. She inadvertently sums up how I'm sure many of us feel about FPL....  (NO MORE CHANGES next year, please!!)

Anyhow,  Happy Holidays to all!

FOUR types of selection decision in FPL

 

It occurred to me the other day, when I was writing about Phil Foden's recent improbably hot run of form, that we may discern 4 main types of selection decision in FPL, differentiated by their timing.

Timing of a transfer: the FOUR TYPES

1)  Anticipatory/Speculative/Precognitive

If you go in for a player before he's started to show any clear signs of form - just following a 'hunch', or because you have some sentimental attachment to him, or because he's a big-name player who's often done well in the past (ahem, Mo Salah...) - you may sometimes get lucky with that. But you have to appreciate that it's a very risky play. Going in so early for someone is inevitably a big gamble, even if you may have some good reasons - though very subtle and uncertain ones - for the choice. Those reasons might be founded on past history (e.g., the player usually recovers strongly from a brief injury absence, regularly displays a particularly keen hunger to return to the fray after missing a few games for any reason, always bounces back strongly after just a few poor performances, often has a great game against this particular opponent...), a positive shift in team form or lineup or tactics, a favourable run of upcoming fixtures, some background information which may suggest a likely psychological lift (a spat with the manager or a legal problem resolved, a family problem improving, a bereavement receding into the past), or subtle indications on the pitch of a possible turnaround in fitness or confidence that might herald a sudden, imminent uptick in points-scoring form. If you weighed up such factors, and subsequent performances by the player seemed to vindicate your assessment, you may congratulate yourself on a perceptive early transfer decision. But more often, FPL managers who go in early for someone are just taking a wild punt, based on no substantive rationale at all; and if that player suddenly hits a hot streak of form out of nowhere, they've just been incredibly LUCKY - but they'll never admit that. [Disgruntled rivals may complain of them relying on a crystal ball or a time-machine, because there really seems to be no other way to explain how such a bizarre decision worked out so well for them....]

2)  Hasty/Hopeful/The Calculated Gamble

If you go in for a player after 1 or 2 good hauls, that will sometimes pay off for you. But again, it's very risky - you might be falling victim to the classically over-optimistic vice of chasing last week's points. 'Form' is not always accurately reflected by points returns; 'form' is often transient or inconsistent. You need to look for evidence of a general upturn in form that is likely to persist - and improve further - over a number of games. You can only find that kind of evidence by watching full games with close attention; stats are no substitute for that; and a highlights roundup is not good enough either - you need to have seen the whole game. 

3)  The 'Goldilocks Zone'

This is the 'ideal' time to make a transfer, the time when most 'smart' managers recognise that a player is probably now worth having. Now, as I just said above, because 'form' is not always reflected fully - or, sometimes, at all - in the FPL points returns, this 'sweet spot' might come when a player has started playing better, but has not yet produced any worthwhile points; or perhaps, they've only produced a few modest hauls, but (not yet) a really big one. And, although it might sometimes be possible to discern indications of a decisive upturn in performance from just one game, usually it takes a little longer to be confident of that. As I wrote in this essay at the end of last season attempting to define the concept of 'form': One good game might be a freak; two on the bounce is very encouraging, but it still might mean nothing; three.... is form.  Of course, with the benefit of hindsight, you can pinpoint the individual gameweek in which a player first began a streak of good points-scoring - even if those returns were at first quite modest and/or quite intermittent (and perhaps not really reflective of any strong positive shift in the player's or his team's performance at that point!). But as the season is unfolding, it is almost always impossible to recognise the exact moment of such a shift: it doesn't generally become visible until a little later - one, or two, or three gameweeks further on. And that is when you should be jumping on the player. Don't beat yourself up that you might have missed a few good hauls from him; be satisfied that you're getting good points from him now, points that a lot of rival managers are still missing out on.

4)  'Late to the party'

Often, you'll miss these 'early signs' that a player may be about to go on a tear. And that's forgivable - especially if, like me, you don't have good access to live TV coverage of the games. And the 'Goldilocks Zone' is very unforgiving, usually an extremely narrow window of opportunity: it's often just a single gameweek, and, even with the most generous dispensation, it can rarely be extended to more than two or three. However, after that point, it should be fairly obvious that this player is now a top pick, and if you continue to ignore him - well, then you're really not paying attention; or, worse, you're being stubborn (sticking to a previous selection in defiance of mounting evidence against it), or unreasonably prejudiced against this new option (perhaps he hurt you in the past: the old 'He always starts blanking as soon as I buy him' superstition - we've all fallen victim to that at one time or another). Often, such stubbornness grows out of being in thrall to the ideal of self-consistency, or what is sometimes called a 'committment bias'  - one of the most deep-rooted and damaging of our cognitive biases: we may have convinced ourselves that a player we'd picked ahead of the newly in-form player was always going to remain the superior prospect, or we may have convinced ourselves early on in this emerging trend of form that it was going to prove ephemeral - and nothing will now change our minds about this choice, no matter how much evidence is stacking up that it has now become wrong. But.... better LATE than NEVER. If you can overcome your pride, your stubbornness, your prejudice, and accept that a player is now so hot that you must have him - you might still be able to catch one or two more decent hauls from him before the streak dries up (as they all do, eventually).

In summary, then:...

The first type of transfer is very early: made before there has yet been any evidence of an improvement in a player's performance (or at least, not in his FPL points returns); it is hence a big, and probably unjustified, risk. Such transfers can occasionally pay off very well; but you should ensure that such a pick is based on definite evidence - if only in the form of positive background factors, rather than anything yet in the on-field displays - and sound reasoning.

The second type is also early, and possibly over-hasty: it is made on the basis of an improvement in performance, but perhaps only scant evidence of such, perhaps from just one or two games - which is rarely enough to make you fully confident of a sustained upturn in form. If you're allowing yourself to get over-excited about one or two good returns, you're most often not shrewdly anticipating the next big thing, but simply falling prey to a fatuous 'sheep pick'.

The third type is based on an astute assessment of early evidence of an upturn in performance: not just the FPL points returns, but the overall contribution of the player and the way he and his team are functioning together. Such evidence may occasionally be visible in a single game; but usually it takes two or three games to become persuasive.

The fourth type is at least slightly late - or maybe very late! - only recognising the turn in form some time after it has become evident, at least to the smarter and more perceptive FPL managers. (As a general rule-of-thumb, if The Scout - FPL's vapid, anonymous, in-house pundit - has just recommended a player,... you probably should have bought him at least one or two gameweeks back.)

To apply this template to the recent example of Phil Foden's extraordinary streak of goalscoring form....

If you'd gone in for him in Gameweek 13, that was definitely a Type 1 decision. And it must have been based on having a crystal ball, because there really was no indication that he was suddenly about to come good so strongly, after a long run of 'blanks', and often pretty anonymous performances (he'd only produced 20 points from the previous 8 games, with just a solitary assist!). A fixture against Leeds was not sufficient reason to start fancying a player who'd shown almost no indication of suddenly becoming a major FPL points contributor again over the previous two months. (Neither was a moderately promising fixture-run immediately thereafter. And it was only moderately promising: Fulham away is not a particularly 'easy' fixture; Palace away certainly isn't.)

If you'd bought him for Gameweek 14, that would have been a Type 2 decision. Was there really any evidence in the Leeds game of a decisive change in mentality, confidence, style of play (or in team tactics, that might give him more scoring opportunities...)? Not really. And that good performance was only against Leeds, who are struggling at the bottom of the table. Moreover, there were two further Premier League games within the coming week, and we might reasonably have expected that Foden would get short minutes in these games - or perhaps be rested completely for one of them - and/or might have been inhibited a little by fatigue. I would say, getting Foden in GW14 was essentially just chasing last week's points; there was not yet any convincing rationale for buying him.

The interesting question is whether, after two outstanding displays in quick succession, it would have a Type 3 decision to get Foden in Gameweek 15. I would say NO. Foden had just played twice within a few days; and there was a crucial Champions League tie away to Real Madrid coming up the following midweek - and he did indeed get short minutes in this next match. Also, Sunderland were much the best of the three EPL teams he'd faced in this remarkable week - although they produced an uncommonly poor performance on this occasion, and, despite playing only just over an hour, Foden again managed to come up with a goal.

Acquiring him didn't really become a Type 3 decision rather than Type 2 until Gameweek 16; and arguably perhaps not even then. In the wake of the Real Madrid game, there was again a risk that Foden might be rested or subbed off early. And Crystal Palace are one of the best teams City have faced this season, the strongest defence in the league (after Arsenal's); especially away from home, a City win could not have been confidently predicted. Moreover, it is statistically extremely improbable that any player will achieve 4 double-digit hauls in a row (has it ever been done before??) - and while that wouldn't argue against acquiring Foden for this game, it should counsel that it was unreasonable to expect another very big points return from him. And yet - astoundingly - he did produce yet another haul! But that was a once-in-a-blue-moon freak; and if you bet on that, you were lucky rather than brilliant.

This might be a rare case where there was in fact no 'Goldilocks Zone' for acquiring Foden. There have been good reasons to doubt if he would be able to extend this scoring streak in each gameweek that it has continued; and the calculus on this was greatly complicated by the December fixture congestion and the huge importance of City's looming Champions League clash. In each of those four - closely packed-together - gameweeks, there were reasonable arguments for remaining hesitant about acquiring Foden: It was becoming increasingly unlikely in each match that he would produce another successive big haul, and increasingly likely that Pep might rest him. 

Moreover, Doku had been a very attractive pick from City for a while, and Cherki was just becoming so - before Foden suddenly caught fire. And if you already had one of these (or perhaps Nico O'Reilly; albeit that he's in a different position category, that pick would still be eating into your club quota from City), it would not have been unreasonable to hang on to them, in preference to Foden - whose newfound burst of form might well have quickly fizzled out again. And even if you had fancied bringing Foden it, it was still a somewhat speculative pick - so early in the emerging hot spell, after such a long barren streak, after such a disappointing season last year - and it might not have been a leading transfer priority; especially as the mounting toll of injuries and suspensions in the bleak midwinter was using up most of the available stock of Free Transfers for the majority of FPL managers (even with the bonanza of extra transfers we were just given in in GW16).

Perhaps, perhaps... transferring in Foden has jumped straight from a Type 2 to a Type 4 decision!

However, I would suggest that acquiring Foden now, for Gameweek 17, is probably the Type 3, 'Goldilocks Zone' moment. 

Yes, paradoxical as it may seem, I think he's only become a really unassailably strong pick now - when his super-hot streak is (almost certainly?) over. You will have missed 55 points from 4 games in the last fortnight; but a fortnight ago, that was completely unforeseeable; and even as the fortnight played out, it remained hugely improbable. You shouldn't suffer any self-recrimination for missing out on the benefits of such a bizarre freak performance.

But now, we have seen clear evidence that Foden - and his team - are playing extraordinarily well; and this does seem to be a sustained shift in performance. Moreover, they're in a pretty soft run of fixtures still, with only the New Year game against Chelsea offering a significantly formidable opponent in the next month or so (and at least that one's at home). At this point, it is definitely looking foolhardy to resist buying him any longer.

With the benefit of hindsight, we would all realise that Gameweek 13 was the ideal time to have brought him in. With the benefit of a crystal ball, we could have realised that he would become 'essential' in Gameweek 14.... or 15,... or 16. But we do not enjoy those two benefits. And without them, it was reasonable enough to hold off buying Foden until now. Most of the FPL managers I consider 'smart' have not bought him yet (the few that do have him, I think had punted on him earlier in the season - and had probably only stuck with him thus far because they'd had other higher-priority problems to address with their transfers); but I anticpate that the majority of them will be going in for him now.

Alas, it is now statistically very unlikely that Foden will achieve yet another massive points-haul in the next game - even against defensively flakey West Ham. And you can be pretty damn sure that he won't rack up another 50-odd points over the next 4 or 5 games. But he is in sensational form, and has some inviting fixtures coming up.

If you already got him in the last few gameweeks, good for you; but you were taking a gamble on him, and were fortunate that it paid off so extraordinarily well. Now, though, it really is looking as if all of us should join you.

Nobody gets a double-digit haul FOUR times in a row!!

Well, OK, Phil Foden just did! But it almost never happens.

Even really exceptional players won't often manage a double-digit return more than 4 or 5 times a season. To get even 2 such big hauls back-to-back is fairly uncommon; a string of 3 is very rare; 4 or 5 in a row is possible, it will happen occasionally, but... it's a real 'Black Swan Event', incredibly unlikely. [Actually, I'm not sure it has ever happened before. FPL put up a post on their Facebook page on Monday suggesting that Foden's 4-in-a-row was a "first time in history" feat; but they neglected to specify if this was a first just for him, or for anyone.]

Basically,... the longer a sequence of big hauls extends, the less likely it is to continue. You could, with relative safety, bet a large amount of money that Foden will get a more modest return in Gameweek 17 (even though he's at home, against West Ham!); and if, by some freak of nature, he does manage another 10+ points haul in that game, you can bet your house that he won't do it again in Gameweek 18.

That's not at all to say that Phil Foden (or Harry Wilson, who's also just racked up 4 good hauls back-to-back - although the 2nd and 3rd were only 8-pointers; or Bruno Fernandes, who's posted 3 double-digit returns in his last 4 games) would be a bad pick at the moment; far from it. [I considered the Foden case in a lot more detail a couple of days later.]

But you should be realistic in your expectations. When you buy in a player because he's just had 1 or 2 (or 3, or 4....) really good hauls in a short space of time, you shouldn't be counting on him doing it again immediately, this week. That is statistically very unlikely. You should accept that he's probably 'due' a blank or two now; and you shouldn't quickly get impatient with your new purchase if that happens. You should be buying players for a run of games - at least the next 3 or 4 fixtures, hopefully more like twice that many - not just the next game. And you should be happy if he averages a decent points-return over that run.

Being unreasonably greedy in your points-expectations of a player is a recipe for disappointment, frustration,.... and further rash, impulsive transfers to try to 'put things right' (when there's probably nothing actually wrong - apart from the fact you were hoping for something absurd).

If a player can bring you, say, 3 returns of 6-8 points over the next 5 games, that's a very good result. You should be more than satisfied with that - not fretting that his little sequence of 12 or 15-pointers suddenly dried up as soon as you bought him.