Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 18

I always think of December as 'Random Month': mounting exhaustion, mostly dreadful weather, the relentlessly climbing injury and suspension roster, and a slew of unpredictable 'rest rotations' lead to some yo-yo-ing form and a lot of unexpected results. Plus, of course, this week most of the players would undoubtedly far rather be home with their families, and might not be fully focused on their endeavours on the pitch.

Newcastle's woeful away form continued against Manchester United on Friday night - although Eddie Howe presumably employed 'the hairdryer' at half-time as his team re-emerged from the dressing room with more resolve and urgency, and gradually pushed the home side back into a desperate defence of their slender lead, hanging on by fingernails for the last 20 minutes. Amorim is finally showing some tactical flexibility (though perhaps only a grudging - and temporary - adaptation to the multiple player absences he's having to deal with at the moment): after morphing to more of a four-at-the-back without the ball in the last game or two, he now seems to have formalised this into a 4-2-3-1 starting formation - and this time was deployng Dorgu as an outright winger, and on the right, rather than his usual left side; he thrived here on the attacking responsibility, and claimed the winner with a crisp volley from the edge of the box (although I don't know how Dalot is getting credited with an assist on this; his long-throw into the box was not merely 'diverted' but emphatically headed clear by Woltemade at the near-post, really initiating a new 'phase of play'; I wouldn't be surprised to see that attribution overturned). Sesko and Hall both unleashed firm shots against the crossbar in the second half, Gordon put a cross-shot narrowly wide, and Dalot fluffed the best chance of the game when he stole in behind on to a chipped free-kick but hooked his half-volley over the top. There were a couple of hopeful shouts for penalties from the visitors; but those incidents don't seem to have made it into the highlights reels, so presumably there wasn't much in them. Possible further injury woes for United, with Mason Mount not able to reappear after the break, and Casemiro being withdrawn after barely an hour (although that might have been just a fatigue issue, as he rarely has the stamina for a full game any more).

City went briefly back on top of the table after their lunchtime win at Forest, but they had to work for the points, and very nearly let them slip away. Forest actually looked the better team in the first-half, and might have gone ahead after just 7 minutes when Jesus and Gibbs-White both failed by inches to get on the end of a sublime cross in behind the defence from Hudson-Odoi. Their new keeper, John Victor, was also in outstanding form, making superb saves from Cherki and Foden. Hutchinson's equaliser for the home side, finishing off an excellent team move down the left, thus felt well deserved; and they nearly grabbed the lead shortly afterwards when Donnarumma could only parry Neco Williams's low, curling effort out to the inrushing Savona, but the right-back blazed his effort miles over the bar. Forest may also feel slightly aggrieved that O'Reilly appeared to have wrestled Gibbs-White to the ground in the six-yard box just before Cherki rifled in his winner. To me, though, there really wasn't anything of substance in that shout. Forest have a stronger case that Ruben Dias should have been sent off for a second yellow card just before half-time, when he cynically clipped the heels of Igor Jesus only minutes after being booked for dissent. City, of course, get away with a lot.

Arsenal are beset with injury problems in defence: Timber was a late drop-out after feeling a sore muscle in training, and then Calafiori had a similar problem in the warm-up. They were fortunate that Hincapie, who had appeared still doubtful to start during the work, was able to step back into the centre of defence, but Rice had to deputise at right-back. Eze was not even on the bench, which may be an omnous sign. Brighton had their problems too, with Welbeck still troubled by a bad back and only on the bench, Minteh only coming on as a sub for the second-half, and Mitoma, only just fit again after a long injury absence, going down with a virus. Last-minute omissions like this upset many a Bench Boost play this week! Yet again, Arsenal didn't look particularly convincing, but did just enough to take the points from a fairly uninspired opponent: a crisp drive from outside the box from Odegaard in the first-half and a Rice corner unluckily deflected into his own net off of the top of Rutter's head midway through the second had put them comfortably ahead, but the visitors then gave them an anxious finish when Diego Gomez lashed home the rebound after Ayari's curling effort beat Raya but came back off the inside of the far post. Shortly afterwards the Arsenal keeper pulled off one of the saves of the season, flying across his goal to somehow palm away Minteh's fierce curler. Bart Verbruggen was lucky not to get sent off for cynically clattering Gyokeres when he made a fast break down the left flank: it was too far wide to be a 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity', but it did look very like 'excessive force'.

Brentford are looking more and more impressive of late, not only attacking quickly and with fluency, as their trio of forwards all look in sensational form, but also finally discovering more solidity in defence. Boutnemouth, though, put up no resistance at all; a baffled and humiliated Iraola observed ruefully that they didn't show up at all until the second-half. A consolation goal from Semenyo, improvising a neat back-heeled finish past Kelleher from close range, was their only positive moment in the game. Brentford won with swagger, and could easily have had more than just Schade's superb hat-trick, and the unfortunate Petrovic own-goal (one of his defenders cleared Thiago's effort from the goal-line but fired it straight against his helpless keeper); Lewis-Potter somehow managed to put the ball just wide of an empty goal when he rushed in to get a header on the rebound from Janelt's long-range shot against the post.

Burnley v Everton was very much the uninspired bottom-of-the-table clash. Jack Grealish has apparently gone down with a virus (although most FPL managers long ago lost enthusiasm for him, after his bright start to the season quickly fizzled out), allowing a start to Tyler Dibling, who was probably the visitors' liveliest player. Somewhat strangely, Beto was also restored to the start at centre-forward, ahead of the recently quite impressive Thierno Barry - who only made it on as a late substitute this time. Substitute Zian Flemming nearly nicked the game for Burnely in the daying minutes, when he was played in behind and tried to pass the ball into the bottom corner: the effort beat Pickford, but rebounded off the base of the post - although the Dutch forward had probably been a whisker offside. Dubravka was somehow credited with 6 saves in the game (didn't see half that many in the TV highlights!), which, in a very uneventful game, was also enough to secure him maximum bonus points.

Liverpool were able to win fairly comfortably, with good goals from Gravenbirch and Wirtz (finally breaking his duck!), but Wolves are showing signs of improvement, and fought gamely - giving the home side a few worrying moments. Nigerian forward Tolu Arokodare, replacing the recently depressed-looking Strand Larsen, was quite a livewire for them: his powerful header led to Wolves pulling a goal back, when Alisson could only parry the effort straight back at the lurking Santiago Bueno, and another free header from him was later looped on to the roof of the net. And late on, Arias was about to fire in at the far post when denied by a superb last-ditch block from substitute Conor Bradley. Wolves should surely be able to start picking up a few points soon; but it remains doubtful whether they'll be able to do enough to lift themselves out of last place, as they are now so far adrift.

West Ham v Fulham was fairly entertaining, although it nearly ended up goalless. There was some flowing attacking play from both sides, although almost none of it culminated in clearcut chances. A fizzing long-distance effort from Harry Wilson early on was well tipped over by Areola (it was quite a day for outstanding saves), and Leno was able to turn behind a fierce near-post effort from Bowen; but that was about it - until Scarles's unfortunate missed clearance late on gifted Wilson the chance to improvise a volleyed chip into the middle where Raul was waiting unmarked on the edge of the six-yard box to head home a winner.

Villa were strangely subdued in the first-half at Chelsea, barely getting a kick in the opposition half, let alone any sort of sniff of goal - though Emery implied that this might all have been part of his 'cunning plan' for the game. Their fortunes were completely revitalised when he made three substitutions just before the hour (potentially more woe for FPL managers!), one of them being Ollie Watkins, initially left on the bench but emerging as a triumphant match-winner. Chelsea just couldn't capitalise on their early dominance: they had all of the ball, but couldn't create many chances with it - and were really somewhat lucky to have nicked the lead just before half-time when Emi Martinez got too busy wrestling with opposiing players on his goal-line to watch the flight of Reece James's in-swinging corner, and it drifted straight into the net - with a little bit of help from a deflection off Joao Pedro's back (definitely a lucky goal for him; he really knew nothing about it!). Chelsea should really have had a second from the penalty spot, though (but Chelsea just aren't awarded penalties any more) when Maatsen was inexplicably excused for a handling offence in the area (he didn't know anything about it, but his arm was stretched way out from his body for no good reason, and that intervention - albeit 'inadvertent' prevented the ball from going through to Neto who would have had a clear chance to score at the far post). Watkins's equaliser was also a bit fortuitous: he had overrun the ball slightly as he dashed in behind on to Roger's neat pass and, as he stretched to get off a late shot, Sanchez had rushed out to smother it; but the ball came back off the keeper's midriff, cannoned into the striker's knees, and the ricocheting ball was lifted over the keeper's prone body and on to the inside of the post - and into the net. Villa's ability to keep in coming from behind is really quite uncanny, and is now establishing them as credible title challengers. Chelsea's inability to create scoring chances even when comfortably controlling a game is becoming a major worry: if they carry on pissing away points like this, they'll finish mid-table.

Sunderland look as if they are missing their AFCON absentees, Sadiki and Reinildo et al, and also lost their defensive colossus Dan Ballard with an ankle injury just before the match. However, AFCON reject Adingra (a surprise omission by the Ivory Coast, presumably because he's got so few minutes so far since his move to Sunderland) put them in front with a neat curler (although I was surprised not to see it ruled 'offside' by the tip of his shoulder; to the naked eye, it looked as if he was), and Brobbey should have doubled the lead soon after, but his powerful header glanced off the top of the bar. Visitors Leeds, though, had looked much the better team, and had nearly gone in front when Aaronson's effort was briliantly cleared on the line by Hume. Eventually their superiority told, when Calvert-Lewin was able to ghost in between the two centre-backs to tap home Aaronson's great cross; his remarkable scoring streak is now a club record in the Premier League (he barely got another touch all game; but that's what good centre-forwards do...: one chance, one goal). Leeds defender Joe Rodon (who's been in the top 20 or 30 most popular FPL defenders all season, because of his attractive inital price-point) had to limp off in the first-half, after suffering two heavy challenges in quick succession that badly rolled his right ankle both times (Brobbey was lucky not to receive a red card for the first one, which was really a very wild challenge).

Palace and Spurs - like many teams at this point in the year - both looked tired and jaded, and produce a very stale end to the gameweek. Spurs produced a performance that was gutsy, rather than convincing; they produced a late flurry of attacks as Palace were chasing the game, with Richarlison being denied a goal for a (fairly clear) offside, for the second time in the game; and Odobert, released on a quick break behind, firing off a crisp drive on the half-volley from 23 yards out that slammed against the foot of the near post. Apart from that late surge of excitement, though, the visitors were hardly in the game: their scrambled goal from a poorly defended corner just before half-time was very much against the general run of play. Palace utterly dominated for most of the game, but couldn't make their superiority pay: Mateta, Lacroix, and Guehi all enjoyed inviting opportunites in front of goal, but couldn't direct their headers on target.

The FPL 'Team of the Week' astonishingly included 3 Manchester United defenders at first (although Ayden Heaven was later bumped off the list by Micky Van de Ven), and Martin Dubravka in goal, Ollie Watkins as the sole forward, and Schade, Cherki, Gravenberch, Wirtz and Odegaard in midfield: excellent players - but not ones with any significant ownership in FPL! The fairly low number of goals, and again some last-minute injury omissions and other selection surprises also add to the 'luck' quotient somewhat. And, despite there being a number of use-them-or-lose-them chips in play, it turned out to be yet another shockingly low 'global average' score - just 44 points this week! (So many of those these dismal averages this year; this is somehow the lowest-scoring season I can remember.) Among the top 30 most-owned players in FPL, only Semenyo and Saka have produced anything this time (well, and Dubravka; but most people only have him as a back-up option and rarely or never actually start him!).

Chelsea should really have had a penalty for a Maatsen handball, which might have changed the outcome of the game; Verbruggen and Brobbey might have been sent off for bad fouls, and Ruben Dias definitely should have been for a clear second-yellow offence. Astonishingly, though, that counts as 'not too bad' for refereeing errors this season!  Nevertheless, this makes it overall about a 6 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.