Happy 'Year of the Snake'!!

 

OK, this is a little premature, since the New Year for folks in the Sinosphere doesn't actually kick off until the 29th of January this year; and in South-East Asia, where I live, the Buddhist New Year festivals are even later, in mid-April.

For Westerners, the Snake might not seem the most auspicious of birth-year animals - since we have come to associate the creature almost entirely with negative attributes: the leading-astray of Adam and Eve in Eden; the danger of painful, possibly fatal bites; furtiveness, skullduggery, and dishonest dealing. The most 'positive' characteristic we recognise in them is their impressively elegant mode of locomotion, and a suggestion of low cunning = impressive, if sinister - conjured by their penchant for ambushing prey from hiding. In Asian cultures, though, they have become identified with a more admirable spectrum of qualities - notably wisdom, insight, intuition.

Thus, I felt that a snake toiling to ascend a mountain slope might be an apposite image for the striving FPL manager, as we are about to enter the (Western/'International') New Year... and the second half of the Premier League season.

This is traditionally a time of year dedicated to reflection and self-improvement. So, I will probably soon be attempting a few 'reviews' of my ups-and-downs in FPL this year, and of the appositeness or otherwise of the various predictions and recommendations I might have made on this blog over the past few months.

I may also try to come up with some new insights for improvement going forward; and - although I am wary of the word - perhaps even a few 'resolutions' too.

Have a happy and prosperous 2025!!!

Luck-o-Meter (19)

Stefan Ortega had a close-call when he was excused for body-checking Vardy in the penalty area early on, as the home side's hero was adjudged to have been marginally offside when he began his lightning break in behind the City defence. It was one of those calls that looked very unconvincing, and was really too close to render a decision on. How much was there supposed to be in it - the length of Vardy's toes?? It was one of those where advancing or reversing the video playback by one frame would have made an enormous difference to the players' relative positions. Even if the call was technically 'correct' under the current application of the rules, Ortega was extraordinarily lucky not to get himself sent off there, and to gift Leicester an early lead. City will no doubt be hugely relieved to get back in winning ways (though DeBruyne - and later McAtee - provided the only real high spots), and to have their big Viking finding the target again (after recording only 1 league goal in his previous 7 outings); but this was again not really a very convincing or controlled performance; Leicester were completely on top for much of the second half, and were really quite unfortunate not to have got at least a draw out of the game - after Buonanotte looped a header against a post, Justin's improvised effort was scambled off the goal-line by Akanji, and Vardy was played in for a great chance by Mavididi but couldn't keep his stretching volley under the bar. Buonanotte also had a decent penalty shout waved away. when Ake made a rash sliding block against him; it was a poor challenge, but it was not clear that there was any contact actually made. However, on one of the TV angles, I thought it looked like the defender did just clip him; it was one of those calls that really needed to be studied closely from as many angles as possible, to determine if there had been contact or not; but it seemed that VAR dismissed the appeal in a matter of seconds, succumbing - yet again - to the ridiculously heavy bias in favour of upholding the referee's original decision. I would also note that Josko Gvardiol - still the game's 6th most popular defender, with 21.5% ownership - had another stinker of a game (he was the lowest-rated City player on the BBC Sports website... apart from Kyle Walker); he's really looked very poor - defensively, at least - for quite a few games now, and must surely be due for a bit of a rest.... as soon as City have any other defenders available.

Crystal Palace's win over Southampton produced the goal of the day (Eze's fierce half-volley from the edge of the box) and one of the saves of the season (Ramsdale's fabulous reaction stop low to his left to deny Ismaila Sarr's breakaway), but was otherwise a fairly drab affair. Juric naturally complained afterwards about Ramsdale having been shoved by Mateta in the goalmouth scramble that produced Palace's equaliser, but there didn't look to be much in the claim; the goalkeeper here just needed to be a bit stronger (rather than looking for the foul by staggering theatrically backwards into his goal), or assign one of his defenders to manhandle the big forward out of the way.

Oh dearie me! Someone gave Chris Wood a new pair of scoring boots for Christmas! Or perhaps it's just the operation of my infallible power of jinx again - I'd just given up on him and moved him out of the squad... While not the most spectacular finish, I think that delicate side-foot volley to gently chip the ball over Pickford's head was quite exquisite, and should be a 'Goal of the Month' contender. And just as I start to get excited about Everton's improving defensive form, they revert to being wobbly at home... (At least I hadn't piled in for any of their players yet. I'll actually be quite pleased if they falter again, as I think the relegation battle will be more entertaining if it involves more than just Wolves, Leicester, and Ipswich.)  And Murillo was a last-minute dropout, after feeling a problem in the warm-up; a major stroke of ill luck for anyone who happened to have him (Aina and Milenkovic have been the more popular choices this year. although Murillo's in about 3.5% of squads); this is the first time I can remember this happening this season, but there are probably a few prior instances that have slipped my mind (this is the first time it's happened to a player I'm interested in). Forest, however, were not notably weakened by his absence.

Spurs v Wolves was a clash of two teams who look quite dangerous in attack, but hopelessly vulnerable in defence; with better finishing, they could have had 3 or 4 apiece. Spurs, though, should really have been able to put the game to bed after recovering from the early setback to get in front; Strand Larsen's late equaliser really came out of nowhere (though Forster probably should have been able to keep it out). The one egregious refereeing mess-up was the unfathomable decision to award Spurs a penalty for Johnson's clash with Andre; even Johnson looked a little surprised and shamefaced when the referee pointed to the spot. It can sometimes be hard to make the call on this kind of contact, and you can see referees giving the benefit of the doubt to the attacking player when it's anywhere near a 50/50; but for me, this was more like an 80/20 - Johnson deliberately put his leg across in front of the defender as he ran up alongside him, tripping him: the contact was totally initiated by the Spurs player, it was a foul the other way. Perhaps Son also felt embarassed about the injustice of the decision, since he contrived to mess up the spot-kick conversion. Since the penalty wasn't scored, it probably didn't have much influence on the overall outcome of the game; but it did, of course, have a huge impact on FPL points, with Sa getting points for a penalty save and Son getting negative points for a miss.

Fulham v Bournemouth was a cracking game of football, free-flowing and evenly matched - much the best of the gameweek so far, I think. And it produced some superb goals, with Evanilson's (his first for 7 weeks, apparently; it hadn't seemed that long to me - but he's never struck me as a particularly tempting third-forward pick anyway) the pick of the crop, although you won't see many better headers than Raul's and Wilson's. However, fond though I am of Bournemouth, I have to say I think their second equaliser should have been chalked off, for Semenyo wiping out Diop with his follow-through in supplying the assist to Ouattara; VAR's pronouncement that the contact was accidental, unavoidable, non-culpable... was utter nonsense. I did think they got things right earlier in the game, though, when Fulham players were baying for a red card for Ryan Christie's messy challenge on Robinson; that was one where the two players were rushing into each, both partly responsible for the coming-together; Christie was showing his studs very high, but he actually tried to pull out of the impact, and the contact was thus very light.

Liverpool's predictable demolition of West Ham wasn't quite as one-sided as the final scoreline made it appear. Although they had barely a third as many goal attempts (and, strangely, none were recorded as being 'on target'), they did quite often look threatening on the break, and the game might have taken on a different complexion if Paqueta hadn't completely fluffed a good chance laid on by Bowen in the opening minutes. The Brazilian had a good effort deflected on to the outside of the post by Van Dijk's heel near the end as well; while Mo Kudus crashed a neat curler from distance and a firm close-range header against the woodwork. Mo Salah was presumably penalised by the BPS for being so profligate with his chances; but he wasn't the only one - he might have notched 2 or 3 more assists as well, if some of his teammates had been a little sharper in their finishing. It is terrifying to think that (as with Palmer's monster haul against Brighton this season) Salah's 16-point tally here might have been much, much more: there is a universe in which he bagged 6 or 7 goals last night, and almost as many assists! While the BPS has traditionally hated Mo (for taking a lot of shots at goal, and not always getting them on target), it has long had an obscene man-crush on Trent: here, with so many other oustanding contributions from Liverpool players, it is really difficult to see how he earned even 1 extra point, let alone 3! Indeed, it feels somewhat unjust that he was even credited with the goal, since although his initial shot might have been on target (even that might be open to question: it looked a bit high to me, and would have had to dip sharply to get under the crossbar), it really posed no threat, and Kilman's headed deflection on it was massive, decisve. Some better definitions of key 'game actions' like this, and more consistent and transparent application of these definitions, would be very welcome for making the game seem more fair. Areola, restored to the West Ham goal by Fabianski's concussion, also deserves a lot of credit for keeping the score down to single figures; he notched 8 saves, a few of them very impressive ones - although he might possibly be held slightly at fault for getting a hand to Salah's first goal but failing to keep it out.

The Villa v Brighton game saw 3 particularly sweet finishes, from Adingra, Lamptey, and Rogers. But it was another game marred by a bizarre refereeing decision: Watkins was able to convert a penalty, after Joao Pedro was apparently deemed culpable for being in the way of Rogers's wild lunge at the ball; the Brighton man was obviously the one being kicked, and a foul should have been given his way. On the TV highlights, it looked as though the decision had been made solely by VAR; but in fact it seems to have been yet another case where the referee whistled hastily for a non-existent foul, and the VAR team didn't want to embarrass a colleague by declaring that he'd made a 'clear and obvious error' - even though he had. [OK: The views I initially saw looked very much as if Rogers had swiped at a ball he was never likely to reach, and had made thigh-on-thigh or shin-on-shin contact with Pedro. But fuller highlights I found later included the VAR footage, which showed that Rogers did in fact get something of the ball - not much - and that it was Pedro's foot that made contact with him, tapping his heel a tiny fraction of a second after the ball had gone. But it was a very minimal contact, accidental and inconsequential; they were both going to kick the same ball and their feet touched - it happens; it's not always a penalty. And it didn't look to me like this one was. Also, though the official highlights entirely omitted this, the referee was directed to the pitchside monitor to reconsider his original decision of 'no foul'. It is kind of important for viewers to know exactly how wrong decisions like this have been made.] 

Pedro at least had another very lively game, and would surely have got more than just the 1 bonus point if he hadn't been harshly penalised for conceding that penalty. However, he did get lucky in being credited with both assists; the first one surely should have gone to Lewis Dunk for his finely weighted long ball over the top; Pedro seemed to have simply misread the bounce of the ball and run past it - a nice dummy to mislead the defenders, but there was minimal if any contact with the ball, and certainly not decisive in its falling so neatly to Adingra racing up behind him. (The attribution of 'assists' is one of the weirdest things going on in FPL this season! I don't know if they rely solely on the FA or Opta to make these determinations, or if they retain a discretion to revise them themselves...?) On top of Brighton's other problems at the moment, Verbruggen seems to have become yet another keeper who can't deal with being crowded when facing corner-kicks.... [Ooops - I recommended him as 'one to watch' just a month ago; that really hasn't worked out at all!]

The Sheep will no doubt again be complaining that Cole Palmer has become rubbish, after he 'blanked' last night as Chelsea slipped to a surprise defeat at Ipswich. In fact, he was on fire, as usual; it was just the rest of the team that was a bit flat. He brought one superb save out of stand-in keeper Christian Walton with a fierce shot from the edge of the box, smacked a free-kick against the post with the goalkeeper stranded (and a defender then intercepted the rebound before it could reach a Chelsea man for a tap-in.... and played it straight back to the keeper, who fell on it gratefully and picked it up - yet this was not penalised as 'handling a back-pass'? WTF?? I've complained once or twice before in this series that this rule just about never gets applied any more, though we see examples almost every week where it should be....), and saw Joao Felix head home his majestic cross - only to be ruled narrowly offside (this decision was clearly 'correct' under the modern rules, nearly a foot in it, rather than just fractions of an inch; but I still hanker for the good old days where an attacker was still considered onside if there was any 'body overlap' with the last defender). Chelsea could have won this game fairly comfortably, and Palmer, on any other day, might have claimed a couple of goals and a couple of assists - he was desperately unlucky here. Worst of all, Chelsea - who haven't been able to get a penalty of their own all season (maybe 1 or 2, compared to about 6 at the same point last year?) - were on the wrong end of one of the worst decisions of the year, when referee John Brooks ruled that keeper Jorgensen had brought down Liam Delap in the box; there was pretty clearly no contact at all, and Delap had just dived; this was pretty easy to recognise with the naked eye, and even more clearcut on TV replays - yet VAR somehow declined to overrule the referee, or even to suggest the sometimes helpful 'second look'. Without that appalling officiating cock-up so early on, Chelsea would surely have gone on to win the game as expected. [I'm pleased for Ipswich, as I've been saying all season that they look to me really the best of this year's promoted clubs, and might deserve to stay up. But I'm gutted for my three Chelsea players who all failed to return....]

From the brief highlights I was able to find, it looked as if misfiring Manchester United were never in the game against Newcastle; they didn't have an attempt on goal until Casemiro blazed wide in the closing minutes. Newcastle really should have made more of their easy dominance, having gone two up inside 20 minutes, but later chances were all squandered. Trippier mocked Onana's recent floundering at set-pieces by trying to score directly from a corner - and nearly succeeded. Apparently, some United fans have been carping that Joelinton's headed goal potentially came off his arm - but it really didn't look anywhere close to me; top of his shoulder, maybe. And none of the United players appeared to appeal for it at the time, so I think that's just a delusional gripe.

Well, there's still Brentford v Arsenal on New Year's Day to round out this extended Gameweek, but... let's hope there's no more controversy and crap officiating in that one. 

What do you know? It seems there weren't any bad refereeing calls in the New Year's Day game??!! Arsenal got off to an unconvincing start, not creating many decent chances despite dominating possession, and repeatedly looking vulnerable on the counter-attack. And David Raya was having a particularly off-day, being arguably at fault for the first goal (partly unsighted, perhaps, but had left a very big gap at his near post), and looking very flakey with his distribution. The game might have got away from the Gunners if a second Mbeumo breakaway had stretched the lead to 2-0; but this time Raya managed to dramatically scoop the ball away from his line at the last second, after his weak first parry had left the effort still goalbound. Arsenal came out stronger in the second half, and Brentford's dodgy defence - and Flekken's inability to cope with a crowded six-yard box - ultimately allowed them to come through fairly comfortably. Teen prodigy Ethan Nwaneri was clearly their 'Man of the Match', but didn't make any impression on the BPS ranking at all (some of the most emphatic proof yet that the BPS really needs to be changed); and I fear Arteta will not trust him as a regular Saka replacement - although he might prove to be one of the great FPL bargains of the next few months, if he did.

The 'Team of the Week' doesn't look that crazy for once; although Chalobah, Ait-Nouri, Rogers and Savinho are mildly surprising entries on to that list; and Ipswich reserve keeper Walton is a very surprising one!  But with three penalties given that should not have been given, and one - against City! - not given, that probably should have been (on top of Ortega's lucky escape in the opening minutes!!), Ouattara's equaliser beng wrongly allowed, and Salah's strange profligacy with his multiple scoring chances,.... I'm provisionally going to have to call this a 7 out of 10 on the Luck-o-Meter. [On Sunday's games, I thought it was no more than a 4 or a 5; but that dreadful decision on the Ipswich penalty is worth at least 3 more points on its own!]

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

BOYCOTT the New Chip!

 

I have written before about why I think FPL's silly innovation of the 'Assistant Manager' Chip is a terrible idea in principle (and also about why it's badly thought out, and severely impractical, difficult/dangerous to use...).

And I mentioned in those posts that I was so appalled by it that I am inclined to quit the game in protest - when the new chip becomes available, after Gameweek 23.  (You could just refuse to use the chip; but I don't think that will be a sufficiently clear and emphatic denunciation of its introduction into the game. Others - probably the great majority - will use it. And since it is likely to be worth far more points than both of the other bonus chips combined, it will effectively determine overall rank outcomes for the season on its own. If you soldier on in the game without using the chip, you'll have to suffer a really terrible end to your season....  I'd rather just not bother.)

You might perhaps find this new chip merely a tolerable irritation for this one season only; maybe even you're intrigued by the challenge it poses.

But if you like 'challenges' you can do Bridge problems or Sudoku. The game of Fantasy Premier League already presents a well-defined challenge - and this innovation falls utterly outside of that existing definition. It is a completely new game, grafted on to the old one - and spoiling it.

And the danger is that if we tolerate it now, it will become a permanent feature of the game, and RUIN IT for all time. (With the further - horrific - possibility that, additionally or instead, other bizarre new rule changes will now be introduced every year.... to keep up a continual 'novelty factor'!!)  I DON'T WANT THAT; and I don't think anyone with any sense, anyone who truly loves the game of FPL, does either.

So, I'd like to propose that we start trying to organise a boycott. Denounce The New Chip online at every opportunity. And if you, like me, decide it's appropriate to quit the game in protest - do so straight after the close of Gameweek 23. And make sure EVERYBODY knows why you've done it.

We can beat this thing. But it's going to take a lot of effort....

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Dilemmas of the Week - GW19

Throughout this hectic December, the main uncertainties are likely to surround 'rest rotations' - and the sudden realisation of 'totting up' suspensions -  as much as injuries. But with such a brief gap since our Thursday/Friday games, there's been little - if any - team news released for the new 'gameweek', so there might not be too much to comment on here.

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 19?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Lukasz Fabianski appears to have escaped any serious injury in his collision with Southampton defender Nathan Wood on Thursday evening, but will presumably be ruled out this weekend by 'concussion protocols'.

Brentford keeper Mark Flekken is also likely to be out for a while, after having to come off in Friday night's game with a groin muscle injury.  This will have quite an impact on FPL, since Fabianski is the second most popular goalkeeper pick in the game (though probably only a back-up for most people), with 20% ownership, and Flekken is still in 6th place with nearly 11%.

Goal hero Iliman Ndiaye might be a doubt for Everton, after coming off near the end of the draw with City with a calf strain.

West Ham's Max Kilman (shoulder injury) and Carlos Soler (knee injury) both had to be substituted early on Thursday with what looked like quite serious problems, so they're likely to be out for at least a week or two.

Wout Faes and Jack Grealish both developed problems ahead of the midweek games, and are now doubts for this weekend.

Kyle Walker apparently missed the Everton game because of an illness; and City fans are probably praying he doesn't recover too quickly, as he has looked an absolute liability to the team the last few times he's started.  Illness was also the reason for Tino Livramento's absence on Wednesday; but he might be back in contention this weekend.

Radu Dragusin came off against Forest with a sore ankle, and remains a slight doubt for the weekend (although, given that he is Spurs's only surviving central defender, I imagine he'll just have to soldier on with painkilling injections....).

And Raheem Sterling has reportedly picked up yet another injury - a knee problem this time - last weekend; but I doubt if even his mum owns him in FPL this year, so that is non-news.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Dominik Szoboszlai, Justin Kluivert, Jordan Ayew, Manuel Ugarte, Tomas Soucek, Guido Rodriguez, Ryan Yates, Marc Guehi, and Matty Cash will serve 1-match bans for reaching 5 yellow cards.

Bruno Fernandes and Djed Spence also serve 1-match bans for getting yellow-carded twice on Thursday.

Villa's Jhon Duran is starting a 3-game ban for a 'violent conduct' red card in midweek. I thought his club would have had a good chance of getting that overturned, but apparently their appeal was summarily dismissed. I suppose it was one of those decisions that was so obviously awful, the FA was ashamed to admit to such an error.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

The entire Manchester City and Manchester United teams....  But they've all been very dubious picks for a while now.

I would add the entire Wolves team, because, despite much improved performances under their new manager, they have a really horrendous run of fixtures from now until late in February; and they are bound to be hampered by a lengthy ban on their best player, Matheus Cunha. (Fake rumours circulating on the Internet on Friday were suggesting an imminent 5-game ban. I think it could be as much as 8 or 10 games; and he'd be very lucky to get away with anything less than 6.)

And the entire Spurs team - because their form of late has been dreadful; and Ange Postecoglou is starting to have that look of a manager who knows there's a death-sentence hanging over him.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

It's good to see Eberechi Eze back for Palace, and he might become a candidate for replacing Saka; but he's not quite back at his best yet.

Cody Gakpo had an outstanding game for Liverpool against Leicester, but still can't be relied upon as an invariable starter (unfortunately, none of their midfield or attacking players, apart from Salah, can be).

Oh, and the entire Forest and Everton and Bournemouth defences!!

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Luck-o-Meter (18)

Bournemouth v Palace was one of the more entertaining 0-0 draws I've seen this season, with both sides producing some fluent attacking football - but struggling to find a decisive finish against each other's well-organised defences. Eze was back starting, and looked lively (with Palace's much improved form in recent games, he could perhaps become a candidate for a Saka replacement). And 3.7% of FPL managers are probably disgruntled at Iraola resting Evanilson in favour of Unal up front; but we have to expect these sorts of rotations in December.

Manchester City managed a lively start, looking about the best they have in two months or so (the omission of Walker, Gundogan - and, gosh, yes, even DeBruyne - immediately improves things),... but only for about the first 25 minutes; then they progressively faded out of the game. And they were very lucky that Everton were not able to capitalise on a 4-on-2 break in the dying minutes to claim the win. The result might perhaps have been different if a few things had broken City's way during their early spell of dominance: Gvardiol very nearly bagged yet another goal with a strong header against the post, and Bernardo Silva squandered a great chance shortly after giving City the lead (he was very fortunate to be credited with that goal, since it needed a huge, decisive deflection via Branthwaite's attempted block to find its way over Pickford and in at the far post; however, we never like to see defenders penalised with 'own goals', and it would have been particularly harsh on Branthwaite here - who otherwise produced an outstanding performance). And Haaland missed a penalty - hails of derisive laughter!! At the moment, City have relegation form; and I can't see that changing unless they make some important signings next month.

Unpromising historical stats could be invoked on both sides in the Chelsea v Fulham match: Fulham hadn't won a game at Stamford Bridge in over 45 years, and hadn't even managed to score a goal there for the last 13 years; but Chelsea have a pretty horrible record in London derbies played on Boxing Day. It was the latter hoodoo that ultimately prevailed. Despite taking an early lead through a piece of individual magic from Palmer, Chelsea looked a bit flat (with Jackson and Neto particularly off their game, and Enzo Fernandez not able to get involved in the final third very much in the absence of Lavia), and allowed Fulham to start getting on top in the second half. Even so, Fulham needed a few smart saves by Leno, from Curcurella, Fernandez, and, in the dying seconds, Nkunku to take home the points. The late, late winner from out-of-favour substitute Rodrigo Muniz counts as a bit of a surprise; but the refereeing was impeccable in this one.

Jhon Duran's sending-off at Newcastle spoiled the game for Villa, and was probably the worst decision of the Gameweek. His bafflement at the red card looked entirely genuine, and his treading on the defender was clearly accidental. What's more, there was some confusion as to how the decision was even made - with Anthony Taylor hesitating quite a long time before producing a card, and the commentator at the time suggesting that the decision had been recommended by the VAR official. VAR should surely not be directly overruling the on-pitch referee on an issue like this; but equally, if it was Taylor's decision, they should have recommended he take a second look on the pitchside monitor - because a sending-off can have a momentous impact on a game, and you really need to take care to get these decisions right; and this one was wrong. It was, I think, so egregiously wrong that there should be some hope Villa can get the decision rescinded on appeal, and have Duran available for the weekend after all. I'm not sure that it made much difference to the ultimate result, though. Villa looked a distant second-best throughout, and were already behind from Gordon's stunning curler. With Newcastle in such sharp form at the moment, they were lucky to avoid a cricket score: Martinez produced a great save from Tonali's drive, Bruno Guimaraes smacked one against a post, and three Newcastle goals were (rightly) disallowed. Tino Livramento's late dropping out with illness - and Kieran Trippier's consequent restoration to the starting lineup - will have affected a few FPL managers; but not as much as Duran again replacing Watkins as the Villa No. 9. (I'd said just the other day I was very confident that wouldn't happen. And I'm still doubtful it will on a regular basis. I suspect there's some fitness issue with Watkins. And, when fully fit, he's too good to be dropped, however strong the form of his understudy is. The best that Duran can hope for is occasional rotation, or perhaps being played as a support striker alongside Watkins - but not being the sole centre-forward to the exclusion of Watkins.)

Another win and clean sheet at home for Forest wasn't exactly a surprise; they have grown into one of the best defensive sides in the league this season. Sels had to make three good stops from Brennan Johnson, but apart from that, Spurs didn't really do much with their more-than-70% possession. However, while I do think Forest were well worth their win, Elanga must have been very, very close to offside for his goal - and we didn't see any VAR decision made on that?! It is the inconsistency and lack of transparency about the VAR process that I am finding so exasperating this season, as much as the sheer number of bad decisions emanating from it. Djed Spence can't have much complaint about his late sending-off for a second yellow card offence. But Spurs fans - and those FPL managers rash enough to have taken a chance on him - will probably complain about the benching of James Maddison. Amazingly, his ownership is now up to nearly 12%, with some 400,000 people having transferred him in this week - as an ideal replacement for Saka?? - despite his having been subbed off after 55 minutes last week!

Southampton immediately look much improved under new coach, Ivan Juric, and although they're probably too far adrift to have any hope of Premier League survival, they should be capable of causing opponents a lot more difficulty over the second half of the season. They really dominated a lacklustre West Ham throughout here, bringing 3 sharp saves out of Fabianski in the 35 minutes he was on the pitch before having to go off with a concussion, and a few more from Areola afterwards. They looked good for at least a draw here, and if they'd been able to stop the ever-lively Bowen nicking a goal from a corner, they would have got one. At least VAR here was doing its job, as West Ham's holding midfielder Guido Rodriguez, initially shown a straight red card for a clumsy but not violent challenge, was quickly reprieved (although again the process was rather unclear, at least on the TV coverage; highlights did not show any visit to the pitchside monitor, and the BBC commentator did not explain why the referee had changed his mind about the card). West Ham under Lopategui continue to look very unimpressive, and I would still bet on him being the next manager to lose his job. 

Wolves look remarkably revitalized under new coach Vitor Pereira, picking up their second straight win since Gary O'Neill's dismissal. Cunha had a superb game (though he should not have been playing; I cannot see why the FA are taking so long to hand down a ban for his assault after the Ipswich game), and nicked the opening goal with a cheeky curler direct from the corner-kick (I can't remember the last time I saw that in an EPL game!). United fans are whingeing that Onana was unfairly 'impeded' in that incident, but the Wolves players weren't even boxing him in that tightly, and it was entirely his own fault that he did not assert himself physically in that situation. Bruno's sending-off for a second yellow card early in the second half may have turned the course of the game, although United really hadn't looked very dangerous before that: José Sá had to make one very good save from a curling effort by his countryman Dalot, but that was about it. Wolves perhaps hadn't really earned a two-goal margin of victory, and grabbing their second on a breakway so deep into added-on time must be considered a little lucky; but they were certainly worth the win - and Amorim's team have all sorts of problems.

I suppose we should count ourselves lucky that the Liverpool v Leicester game went ahead: cancellation had been considered, because of the heavy fog. (It would have been nice to use a high-vis ball in those conditions, wouldn't it? Maybe that was supposed to be a high-vis ball... but I was struggling to see it in the first half!). We also felt much relief after Salah finally came good: early on, it was looking as though it might be 'one of those days', with him prodding an effort against the near post in the opening minutes, then having a deflected shot loop on to the roof of the net with the keeper stranded, then smacking a delicious curler against the crossbar (Andy Robertson also saw a superb angled header smash against the face of the far post...). And I am once again mystified by VAR's application of the Offside Laws: it is unfathomable that they could take over 3 minutes to render a decision on Gakpo's disallowed second goal, and provide no explanation for that decision. Apparently, Nunez was adjudged to be offside, but: a) he didn't look it; b) he didn't play the ball; and c) Salah's cross was subsequently cleared by a Leicester defender, which surely initiates a new 'phase of play'? Yet another utterly opaque and daft - and painfully slow - decision; I am getting so sick of having to suffer these every single week. Ward's omission can't really be considered a surprise after his dreadful game last week (although I confess I had suggested in my weekly roundup that his manager would probably stick with him), and it is unlikely to have affected many people anyway; but Vardy's absence with a knock is likely to have inconvenienced a few people - while some may have profited from Jordan Ayew's surprise opening goal. And the 0.8% of people who own Patson Daka (how is it that many??), and the much larger numbers who hate Liverpool, will be aggrieved that he managed to fluff a complete sitter. All in all, though, not too much to twitch the Luck-o-meter needle in this match.

Brighton had one of those frustrating games against Brentford, where they dominated in attack (24 attempts on goal!), but somehow couldn't find an effective finish. Flekken was in particularly good form in the Brentford goal, racking up 6 good saves in just over half an hour, before having to retire with a groin strain. Riley, Enciso, Mitoma, and the returning Solly March all went close from distance; and back-up keeper Valdimarsson was also impressive. Weirdly, though, despite Brentford barely threatening at the other end, it was the Brighton defence, and Bart Verbruggen, who dominated the BPS scores - what's up with that??  Brentford maybe should have nicked it, with the best chance of the game being Wissa's first-half breakaway, where he netted confidently, but then had VAR declare that he'd been offside by a kneecap; another utterly ridiculous decision. Joao Pedro was also extremely lucky to escape a straight red card for flinging an elbow at Yarmoliuk in frustration; he didn't make contact, but he was pretty close, and he appeared to do it in earnest, with some violence. That is supposed to count as 'violent conduct', and it is baffling that the referee did not see it that way; even more disturbing was the subsequent note from VAR on the incident, which seemed to imply that they thought the referee had been wrong - but not 'clearly and obviously' so??!!  VAR is ruining the game at the moment; it needs a complete overhaul. [On seeing that incident again, I think he does look as though Pedro pulled out of delivering the blow with elbow to face. But even so, just shying at an opponent like, just making a threatening gesture that extreme... can be construed as 'violent conduct'. He was  a very, very lucky boy to escape punishment for that.]

Arsenal got the job done against a resolute Ipswich defence, but were probably relieved to take home all the points thanks to Havertz's solitary tap-in. Muric was in good form, making a particularly fine save from Merino late on. Timber, Odegaard, and Gabriel also had decent efforts (Gabriel really should have scored!); and Arsenal should surely have had a penalty when an Ipswich player prevented Havertz from getting a decisive contact on a ball into the six-yard box by hauling back on his shirt. The BPS tallies were again a little surprising, with Timber somehow edging Havertz out of the top bonus-points spot (presumably because of his booking; although it is unusual for the sole goalscorer not to claim the maximum bonus).

Fulham's late win over Chelsea, and Wolves' victory over Manchester United were the only 'upset' results of the gameweek, although the double clean sheets for Bournemouth and Palace, and Brighton and Brentford were also somewhat surprising. And even with City's recent dismal form, Haaland missing a penalty was a bit of a turn-up for the books. 

We did see a few outstanding goals in this batch of games - from Palmer, Gordon, Ndiaye, Elanga, Gakpo and Salah - but rather more outstanding saves.... and an above-average number of efforts clattering the woodwork! And the 'Team of the Week' this time is a really strange one: Verbruggen somehow takes the goalkeeper spot (despite having almost nothing to do in the game?!); Wan-Bissaka, Van Hecke, Joelinton, Elanga, Ndiaye (hasn't come close to having a scoring chance in a couple of months), Cunha (why isn't he banned yet??), and Gakpo (not an invariable starter...) also feature - WHO owns any of them (well, apart from Cunha...)??

The refereeing overall wasn't too terrible - but there were several extremely dubious offside calls, and the red card decisions on Duran and Joao Pedro were just appalling. And the FA continuing to drag its feet on announcing Cunha's ban is quite mind-boggling. So, I think this is once again about a 7 out of 10 on my Luck-o-Meter.

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

A little bit of Zen (22)

 

There are only two 'Rules'.

SECOND: Be happy

FIRST: Be

GW

All the best for 2025!!

Dilemmas of the Week - GW18

 

Throughout this hectic December, the main uncertainties are likely to surround 'rest rotations' - and the sudden realisation of 'totting up' suspensions -  as much as injuries. But with such a tight turnaround after last weekend's games, there's been little - if any - team news released for the upcoming 'gameweek', so uncertainties of all kinds abound even more than usual.

And even if we can (mostly) trust the modern professional footballer not to go overboard with the festive eating, they're likely to have had only light training this week - so, the level of tactical preparation for this round of games is likely to be low. And it is inevitable that many players will get rested - though it's just about completely impossible to predict which ones! As I warned at the start of the month, this makes it a particularly rash time to be considering using either of the bonus chips, because you just can't be confident that some of your players - perhaps even your star performers - won't be missing from the lineups; and even if they are all present, you can't be confident in how well they'll perform, when the teams around them might be somewhat unfamiliar, somewhat below par. The immediately post-Christmas games are almost always some of the most eccentric and unpredictable of the whole year: a few teams may do surprisingly well, but some will almost certainly flounder abysmally, and almost all will likely be well below their best. You just can't tell what's going to happen: Liverpool could lose to Leicester tomorrow evening!

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 18?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

The one BIG injury issue, of course, is Bukayo Saka, who limped out of the weekend's game against Palace with what looked like quite a serious hamstring problem. His owners were no doubt hopeful that his usually superhuman powers of recovery might mean only a short absence was likely, but Arteta has muttered darkly that he might be missing for "several weeks" (although we can't usually trust anything he says!). I fear we must anticipate that he'll be out until sometime next month at the earliest. And a big sell-off was almost immediate: 1.75 million managers have already dropped him, and his price has dipped by 100k, must be poised to drop again. So, alas, we need to offload him promptly, to avoid a loss of squad value; at least he should be quite a bit cheaper when we want to buy him back.

Brentford's Kristoffer Ajer is also likely to be out for several weeks after suffering an ankle injury in the game against Forest. And Mads Roerslev, who picked up quite a bad cut on his forehead in that game, could also be a doubt - which would leave the club with very few defenders available.

Mats Wieffer may be a slight starting doubt for Brighton, after coming off early against West Ham with some quad tightness.

Fulham's Sasa Lukic and Sander Berge may both be struggling to shake off 'knocks' they picked up against Southampton. However, Emile Smith Rowe, whose unexpected absence in that game was apparently due to a minor injury in training rather than a tactical or disciplinary omission, might be back in contention for the trip to Stamford Bridge.

Matheus Nunes' omission against Villa was apparently due to an injury picked up in training (although it had seemed very possible that he'd just been dropped, after having a bit of a stinker as a makeshift left-back in the Manchester derby the week before), which is likely to keep him out of contention again this week.

Matthijs De Ligt's absence last weekened was due to 'illness', which makes him doubtful for the Boxing Day trip to Wolves too (good news for Harry Maguire owners - both of them!).

Wolves' Mario Lemina was another whose unexplained absence at the weekend was down to a training ground knock, and he might be available again to face United.

In better news,.... Eberechi Eze is said to be close to a comeback for Palace, though perhaps only coming off the bench in the Bournemouth game.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Ashley Young, Sam Morsy, Nicolas Dominguez, and Lucas Paqueta are this week's occupants of the 'sin bin' for accumulating five bookings (though presumably no-one owns any of these!). 

But Matheus Cunha somehow still hasn't been banned....??

And Maxwel Cornet, on loan at Southampton (who knew??), is ineligible to face parent club West Ham.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Well, poor Danny Ward had an absolutely dreadful game in goal against Wolves on Sunday. Van Nistelrooy will probably stand by him, if Mads Hermansen still isn't fit to return, but - it doesn't look like he'll be keeping the place for long, or contributing any worthwhile points while he does; so anyone who'd rushed to buy him as the cheapest starting keeper should be reconsidering their rashness.

Nearly 190,000 FPL managers have dropped Ollie Watkins after his omission at the weekend; but there's really no reason to suppose that was anything other than a one-off rest rotation. People don't yet seem to have responded quite so negatively to Raul's replacement by Rodrigo Muniz - although he's probably much more of an ongoing selection doubt, having only scored 1 goal (albeit a very good one) in his last 9 league outings.

And Spurs's woefully wobbly form - and the increasingly erratic behaviour of their manager - must surely make any of their players a very dodgy choice at the moment. James Maddison looks to be in tremendous form, yet somehow doesn't enjoy Big Ange's full confidence - he was again pulled off well before the hour against Liverpool, although he had looked much their best player.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Well, many people are getting rampantly excited about the excellent performances of Morgan Rogers and Jhon Duran. But it should be noted that City were absolutely dreadful in that game - really looking like a relegation candidate rather than a title contender! Rogers's confidence is sky-high, and I think there are encouraging signs that he's starting to play much higher up the pitch (perhaps liberated to do so by Kamara's return making the team stronger in the middle of the park, and giving them much more resilience against possible counter-attacks); but for me, he'll need a few more performances like that one before he can really enter the conversation for the cheap fifth midfielder spot. And Duran, I fear, is just a little too expensive for a third forward pick; and really can't be a first or second pick unless he does become Emery's preferred starter (which, I will confidently say, ain't going to happen [Oops!! Well, I still stand by that as a general prediction; I think there must be some fitness issue with Watkins at the moment, prompting a limitation of his minutes. It really seems incredibly unlikely that Duran will permanently displace him as first-choice centre-forward, however strong his goalscoring form looks.]).

Jacob Murphy has looked Newcastle's best player in his last couple of outings, and is probably the strongest competition to recently popular Enzo Fernandez and Amad Diallo for the 4th/5th midfelder slots.

However, I think the absolutely outstanding midfield performance of the weekend was from Dominik Szoboszlai. He is thriving in a freer, more advanced 'No. 10' role and - if he keeps a regular start - could, I think, be the strongest replacement option for Saka. (So far, only the rather unimpressive total of 55,000 managers have seen fit to acquire him this week....)

Jordan Pickford was extremely lucky not to get sent off against Chelsea on Sunday; but he and the Everton defence really seem to have recovered last season's remarkable clean sheet mojo over the last month or so, and are all becoming tempting picks again; perhaps especially Vitaly Mykolenko.who tends to offer greater potential for an occasional attacking contribution than the others.

We saw an even more oustanding goalkeeping performance from the returning Aaron Ramsdale (despite his broken finger evidently being not yet completely healed). Southampton have always shown potential going forward; and, since they have been hampered by a particularly disastrous manager until now, I think there's a very good chance of a strong 'new manager bounce' for them - and they do have a reasonably nice fixture run over the coming month. Since his price has fallen to 4.4 million, Ramsdale might become a tempting choice as a back-up keeper for occasional rotation.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Merry Christmas!!

 

MERRY CHRISTMAS, EVERYONE!!

And may 2025 bring us all better things.... especially better VAR decisions!!

Luck-o-Meter (17)

Gosh - did The Christmas Fairy answer our wishes, and fix it so that the first day of the Holiday Fixture Mayhem passed off without the referees or VAR letting us down and ruining a game? Well, perhaps not quite; but very, very nearly....  We have to be thankful for that much.

The City meltdown continues. Villa didn't play all that well, and were content to let City have a majority of the possession, and yet looked like they could cut the visitors open at will; and without a couple of very sharp early saves from Ortega (the second, where he somehow clawed the ball out from under his crossbar when it was already behind him, 90% or 95% over the line, was little short of miraculous - possibly even better than Martinez's  slightly similar save last week), it could have been an absolute rout. Rogers had a very impressive game, his forward carries looking unstoppable; and, as his confidence surges, he's starting to look much sharper in and around the box as well (indeed, he's actually getting into the box much more now); he's finally evolving into the player his optimistic FPL boosters have been claiming he is all season - though he'll need quite a few more performances like this to convince me that he's a better prospect than Enzo Fernandez or Amad Diallo for the cheap 'fifth seat'. Pep's only answer to this was to take off his best defender (Stones) at half-time... for his worst defender (Walker); which, predictably, made things even worse. Now, admittedly, Stones is only recently back from a long layoff, so maybe there was some fitness issue underlying this change; but tactically, there was no conceivable rationale for it. As Pep casts around more and more desperately for 'solutions', he's starting to look a bit clueless; and this is perhaps the most worrying aspect of City's collapse for their fans, the realistion that their Messiah-coach has caused the problems... and can't fix them. Gvardiol again managed to pop up in the opposition box for one of City's best chances; but he probably should have been able to get the header on target from Grealish's absolutely sublime cross (the best ball of the game by far, from either side); and defensively, he was really looking pretty ropey again (would surely be a prime candidate for a benching, if they had any other fit defenders at the moment....). City defeats are no longer 'unexpected'. In FPL terms, the omission of DeBruyne and Watkins from the starting lineups here was far more momentous.

I had expected Forest to be strong favourites to get the win away to Brentford; but I had not expected them to dominate the game so completely - even with Wood in a little bit of a scoring slump for the moment. A worldie of a save from Matz Sels, beating away Ajer's crisp volley in the second half, was the only action of real note - in a game in which Brentford didn't really turn up, and the visitors just ground out a competent, comfortable win.

We didn't quite get a controversy-free first day of the weekend, because Jacob Murphy definnitely looked half a boot offside when he broke down the right wing to supply Isak's chance to open the scoring in the first minute; but, yet again, no defining lines were drawn on the TV pictures and no explanation offered for VAR's eventual determination to the contrary. I don't like to see good goals ruled out for such tiny margins; but, by the standards we are supposed to be following now, this goal definitely didn't feel kosher. And even if it was, the process which is supposed to reassure us of this again failed to operate correctly. It also looked very much to me as if Dan Burn's late 5th goal should have stood; surely the ball was passed back to him by Sam Morsy, and so he couldn't have been offside - again, no explanation was offered for VAR's unfathomable decision on this. Bruno G's superb angled header in the second half deserved better than to thud against the foot of the far post...  And Alexander Isak's first Premier League hattrick is long overdue, but I'm sure he'll bag many more now; however, he did need the assistance of another Muric Moment to secure this one! I really hope Kieran McKenna can turn things around a little for Ipswich - to keep the relegation battle interesting, if nothing else: Wolves and Southampton are gone already, beyond hope; but Everton and Leicester shouldn't be allowed to survive without having to put up a bit of a fight.

There were so many weirdnesses about the Palace v Arsenal game: Lewis-Skelly getting a start at left-back; Rice being left on the bench.... but coming on later, and scoring a screamer; the normally indestructible Saka pulling up with a hamstring problem early in the game; the normally impeccable Saliba actually having quite a poor game; Gabriel smashing headers against the woodwork twice (at least he got an 'assist' for the second one); Martinelli switching over to the right-hand side; Arsenal scoring 5 goals, but not keeping a clean sheet, and few of the 'usual suspects' among them actually contributing big points (I am smarting that Timber somehow picked up a booking and ended up with a measly 1pt!!);.... and Ismaila Sarr scoring the 'Goal of the Month', but doing very little else....  At least the refereeing was OK in this one; but a lot of FPL unexpectedness.

The VAR offside decision on Dunk for Wieffer's opening goal for Brighton at West Ham was also worryingly unconvincing; at least they'd drawn in the lines this time, but it wasn't at all clear why they'd been drawn where they were. The call on Estupinan's messy late challenge was also a bit dubious; admittedly, there wasn't that much force behind it, and it probably lacked malignant intent, but.... it was a rash, two-footed lunge, out-of-control, and it did catch Kilman dangerously high on the shin. I can't see how that isn't a red card. The only other incident of FPL note in a fairly drab match was the great Kaoru Mitoma somehow failing to prod home a goal from barely a foot off the line.... West Ham appear to be shoring themselves up a little in defence; but apart from Bowen's consistent liveliness in attack, they don't seem to have anything much to offer anywhere else on the pitch (and I still rather feel they need to ditch Lopategui if they're going to haul themselves away from the threat of relegation). Brighton, though, are going through a really poor spell themselves; at least with them, you can see they have the manager and the squad to quickly turn things around again; with West Ham, you can't help thinking they might still be shy of that fabled 40-points 'safety threshold' in the last  few games of the season.

I think Chelsea were perhaps unsettled by the brutally cold and blustery weather as much as by Everton's spirited and well-organised defence at Goodison on Sunday. If they'd managed to raise themselves to even 70% or 80% of their best, I think they could have won this game very comfortably; but unfortunately, they never really dragged themselves above about 60% and so it ended in a sterile 0-0. (To be fair, Everton have been making a commendable habit of this in the last couple of months; but I think it's often depended on their opponents having unusually poor days against them as much as on their own efforts.)  And Jordan Pickford was extraordinarily lucky to survive another of his berserker moments: his horrendous challenge on Gusto was presumably only forgiven by the referee and VAR because of the absurd amount of leeway currently being allowed to keepers (perhaps with an additional increment of sympathy for the hero of the England national team), and the fact that the Chelsea player managed to hurdle over the onrushing keeper without suffering much direct contact. If a penalty had been awarded for that, and the goalkeeper sent off (as he certainly should have been), then Chelsea would surely have gone on to win the game by a few goals. Since many FPL managers are now banking on Enzo and Jackson (or maybe Sanchez... and/or one of the defenders) as well as Palmer, and a large proportion of them had made Palmer captain this week, THIS was probably the biggest incident of the week for distorting FPL outcomes.

It looks as though Southampton left it too late to ditch the disastrous Russell Martin. Even under interim manager, Simon Rusk, they immediately looked a much better team.... arguably better, in fact, than hosts Fulham. And rushed-back-into-service goalkeeper Aaron Ramsdale played a huge part in preserving the first visitors' clean sheet of the season at Craven Cottage, with 5 saves (at least according to the official FPL stats), including one that might be a 'Save of the Season' contender. (And all this with a special glove, with the two middle fingers on the left hand fused together - which suggests that he's playing with those fingers taped together because the break isn't yet fully healed.)  Fulham's drab performance will disappoint a lot of FPL managers, especially those who've rushed in for Alex Iwobi in the past couple of weeks. Marco Silva's somewhat unexpected decision to drop Emile Smith Rowe for teenager Josh King and Rodrigo Muniz for Raul Jimenez will also have caused some FPL discomfort (especially as it's not clear that these changes were just 'rest rotations').

Leicester might count themselves a bit unfortunate against Wolves: in a free-flowing and evenly-matched game, it looked like they really had the better attacking chances.... but Wolves managed to convert all of theirs - thanks to some horrendous defending by Leicester, and a dreadful performance in goal by stand-in keeper, Danny Ward. Wolves looked a bit less all-at-sea than they have recently under Gary O'Neill, but against such poor opposition, we can't really judge if they're likely to benefit from a 'new manager bounce'. The big surprise - and, I would argue, injustice - in FPL terms here was the unexpected availability of Matheus Cunha, who was able to get on the scoresheet (and, somehow, to claim maximum bonus points too?!) in a game in which he should really not have been taking part. We know it's par for the course for the FA to sometimes drag their feet in reaching a judgement on such a big disciplinary issue; but for such an egregious offence as this, I think his club should have immediately suspended him (a gesture which ought to ameliorate the sentence ultimately handed down to him).

I allow myself to wallow in a moment of smugness over the Old Trafford result - since the United fans in the FPL community (a grossly disproportionate number, given the club's lack of success over the last decade or more) were all crowing that this was going to be an 'easy fixture' for Amorim's men, while I had countered with the unpopular prediction that I expected it to be quite an easy win for Bournemouth (in fact, I was so confident of this that I started Kepa this week, previously only my back-up keeper). No-one apart from Diallo really showed much dynanism for the Reds; and even he couldn't continue his scoring streak when the rest of the side were so lacklustre. Amorim caused more FPL disgruntlement with his erratic selections, this time omitting Hojlund and De Ligt for no obvious reason, and switching Dalot over to the right to accommodate Malacia for a trial at left wing-back. And both managers made a raft of early substitutions, denying FPL managers their coveted full appearance points for some players - this becomes more and more of a hazard at this time of year, as teams seek to 'manage minutes' for their players around the congested holiday fixture schedule. Meanwhile, the Bournemouth defence is starting to look more worthy of FPL interest than their attack.

It looked for a long while like things weren't going to happen for Mo Salah in the game at Spurs: failing to convert when Forster obligingly passed the ball straight to him in the opening minutes, and shortly afterwards hitting the woodwork and forcing a couple of decent saves out of the beleaguered Spurs keeper; but of course, he eventually came good in the second half.... causing heartache to all those who had plumped for giving their captain's armband to someone else this week! And Spurs continued their habit of alternating between terrible and brilliant... in the same match. Big Ange did not endear himself to the FPL hordes by making substitutions just short of the hour; and James Maddison - their most dangerous player - was again one of them (he looked like thunder on the bench afterwards; things definitely do not seem to be good between him and his manager). Alexander-Arnold was extremely lucky not to be penalised for his unnecessary shove in Maddison's back on the edge of his own box in the opening minutes: that was certainly a foul, and possibly a penalty; but Spurs were so bad for most of the first half, it probably wouldn't have made any difference to the ultimate result. Mild complaints about Kulusevski's clash with Macallister before Spurs's first goal seemed utterly groundless, however; Macallister is presumably claiming that the Spurs man hooked his leg over the top of him when they were both sprawled on the ground, to impede his getting up; but there was nothing in it - instead of rolling over and complaining, he should have just got up and carried on playing. And oh, Szoboszlai should clearly not have been credited with an assist for Salah's first goal: his touch was a feeble prod, not really a 'goal attempt'; and it didn't ricochet off the defender - Gray trapped it and then tried to get it clear (unluckily steering it straight to the lurking Salah). FPL has been getting crazily over-generous with assigning 'assists' this season (while still being sometimes crazily inconsistent about it!). A 6-3 scoreline, even between two such free-scoring sides, is a high level of FPL weirdness all on its own. And Solanke's goal coming from both Robertson and Van Dijk falling asleep on an innocuous hopeful cross into the box is super-weird. A crazy, crazy game: entertaining to watch, but emotionally exhausting for the FPL enthusiast...

So, let's see - 2 penalties not given, 2 red cards not given, and at least of couple of extremely dubious offisde decisions... By the standards we ought to expect of our officials, this would be a pretty dreadful week. But by the standards we have, unfortunately, come to expect, it's actually pretty good - only 4 or 5 points on my 'luck' scale!!

However, there were some outstanding goals this week, and a few quite amazing saves too.... and a number of astonishing defensive errors (even from the mighty Liverpool!). In the 'Team of the Week', only Salah and Isak are popular picks. Surprisingly poor performances from Manchester United, Spurs, Fulham, Chelsea, Brighton, and Leicester, Saka's early injury and the rarity of a fairly anonymous performance from Cole Palmer, in addition to the large number of unpredictable player selections.... I think that all just about gets this Gameweek up to a 7 out of 10 on the Luck-o-Meter.

The biggest PROBLEM with the 'Assistant Manager' chip

 

I've already explained why I so dislike this vile novelty chip the FPL powers-that-be are foisting on us this year - briefly here, and in elaborate detail here.

There are a number of irksome obstacles to deploying the damn thing at all (which may perhaps be enough to dissuade some people from bothering to use it). 

Many on the online forums have been bitching most about the 'transfer charge' for your selected manager for the chip, complaining that it overstrains an already inadequate player budget. I think that's a greatly overstated complaint: the sums are relatively trivial, and shouldn't have much of an impact on your squad strength. But the initial purchase of your manager is likely to necessitate you having to sell at least 1,... maybe 2 or 3, or even 4 players in order to free up the necessary cash; and that is a substantial irritation.

A rather greater irritation, to my mind, is the restriction of your per-club player quota - meaning that you will be denied the opportunity to bring in a third player from the same club as your selected manager.

However, both of these annoyances pale into insignificance beside the three-week duration of the chip - coupled with the prohibition of using more than one chip at a time (it was not originally specified that the new chip would be bound by this old rule; but that point has now been clarified - to everyone's disadvantage). Being blocked from the possibility of using any other chip for three whole gameweeks is a HUGE handicap - one that should perhaps make all of us question whether we want to use this chip at all. Its potential rewards are indeed enormous (game-distorting, unfair), but the risks attendant upon it could also prove to be quite disastrous.

There are TWO 'blank gameweeks' in the latter part of the season (when some teams will miss their scheduled league fixtures because of the League Cup Final or the FA Cup Semi-Finals), followed by a pair of Double Gameweeks, in which the clubs who had games postponed will make them up by playing twice in a few days, within the same gameweek. There will now be an additional Double Gameweek, just for Liverpool and Everton (replacing the fixture cancelled a couple of weeks ago because of Storm Darragh). There may yet be others added to the schedule, because of more severe weather or other unexpected events.

Blank Gameweeks can affect multiple teams, and can easily wipe out half or more of your squad. And so, you really want to try to keep your Free Hit available to help protect you from the potentially devastating consequences of a big - and perhaps quite unexpected - Blank Gameweek.

Double Gameweeks are prized as particularly good occasions to try to take advantage of the game's regular bonus chips, the Triple Captain and Bench Boost. And it is often desirable to 'set up' for the Bench Boost by playing the second Wildcard a week or so before the target Double Gameweek, to optimise the squad (getting in as many players with double-fixtures as possible, and as many players as possible with the best fixtures) and to try to ensure that you will have a full bench for that week (which is the first essential for a successful Bench Boost).

Rescheduled fixtures typically only have their dates confirmed a fairly short time ahead. At the moment, there is still no date fixed for the postponed Everton v Liverpool match. It seems likeliest that it can be slotted into Gameweek 25 or Gameweek 28, or perhaps even as late as Gameweek 33.  But it is very possible that we still won't know when it is to be played when the 'Assistant Manager' chip first becomes available (after the deadline of Gameweek 23). Since almost everyone who hasn't yet used their Triple Captain chip is now hoping to play it on Mo Salah in that unique Double Gameweek for Liverpool, those people will probably feel precluded from trying to use the new chip until a new date for that missed Merseyside derby is announced.

Having the Free Hit available to help negotiate the Blank Gameweeks in GW29 (League Cup Final) or GW34 (FA  Cup Semi-Finals) is probably even more valuable - if not essential. 

And the 'BIG' Double Gameweek following the postponements for the FA Semis (probably in GW36 or 37, but possibly earlier; GW33 also looks like an 'available slot') is the prime opportunity this season - the only obviously good one - to use the Bench Boost chip.

Because we don't know exactly when these Double Gameweeks will be - and we might not know for sure until just a week or two beforehand! - it's pretty much impossible to plan how to use the 'Assistant Manager' chip..... either to take advantage of them with that chip, or to avoid them so that we can use other chips instead. The bloated three-week duration of the chip makes it completely unmanageable.

So, many managers would probably have preferred to use a multi-week chip straight away in January. After that, there are few if any convenient gaps in the schedule that would allow you to play it without messing up your plans for your other chips. But the churlish FPL gnomes have strangely decided to delay the launch of the new 'Assistant Manager' chip until the beginning of February - so, it is now really difficult to identify good opportunities to use it without compromising, or completely abandoning, your original chip strategy. Most of us are looking at trying fit 7 weeks of chip play into just 15 gameweeks - and that's a huge headache.

Now, as I mentioned the other day, the 'Assistant Manager' chip is going to be worth far more than either of the two existing bonus chips - and probably far more than both of them combined - so it might be worth sacrificing your previous plans for these other chips in order to try to maximise your return from the new chip. Some folks have conjectured that it could be worth more to play the 'Assistant Manager' chip in a Double Gameweek (although I think it would probably not yield as much as a good Bench Boost return from a DGW; and perhaps not even quite as much as a really good Triple Captain return, unless you manage to successfully exploit the bonus for a result against a much higher-placed team in at least one of the two fixtures).

But this all becomes insanely complex to try to calculate. Because.... there are very limited opportunities to get a good return from any of the bonus chips; and so, where it seems that the 'best' week for two (or now, all three) of them might be the same, you have to try to estimate whether 'Chip A in Best Week' + 'Chip B in Second Best Week' is likely to be worth more or less than 'Chip B in Best Week' + 'Chip A in Second Best Week'. That's plenty hard enough with just two bonus chips that both benefit from Double Gameweeks; adding in a third - which has a longer duration, and might conceivably wipe out two opportunities (two Double Gameweek opportunities!) to play the other chips - makes it close-to-uncomputable.

Moreover, it can be really valuable to stay flexible - and opportunistic - in your approach to the bonus chips. It may be that at a certain point in the season, you find yourself with an unexpectedly strong bench, and suddenly - for the first time in ages -  everyone appears to be fit and likely to start.... in a week (though only a regular Single Gameweek) where almost everyone has a really good fixture. When circumstances come together for you like that, it's probably going to be your best chance to use the Bench Boost chip - much better than gambling on getting good fixtures in a Double Gameweek (because you don't know for sure who's going to be playing who until very shortly beforehand) and that you're going to have everyone still be fit for it (even if you 'set up' with a Wildcard in the week before, you can still be hit by a rash of last-minute injuries); this is particularly so when, this year, there's seemingly only going to be ONE 'big' Double Gameweek, and it doesn't fall until the very end of the season.

Something similar might happen with a Triple Captain opportunity. Although it's obviously much more difficult to get 15 fit players in your squad in a week when nearly all of them have good fixtures than it is to ensure that one of your handful of star players is fit to play in one of his most promising fixtures, and there are thus usually several tempting opportunities to risk the TC chip in a season,.... nevertheless, unexpected shifts in team form can suddenly make it appear that your best player's best chance of a big haul is in a different game to any of the ones most anticipated in the early part of the season.... perhaps it may even be in the next game.

Thus, I would argue, ruling yourself out of being able to play either of your bonus chips for three weeks at a time may have an enormous - and perhaps quite unforeseen - opportunity cost.

But ruling yourself out of being able to play the Free Hit could be.... absolutely catastrophic. More widespread and serious 'extreme weather' events than Storm Darragh could very conceivably wipe out most or a weekend's fixtures (or, occasionally, even all of them; but at least that's the same for everyone; and we'll all later enjoy an extra - HUGE - Double Gameweek!). So could other forms of disruption, such as a major terrorist incident or widespread industrial action or another pandemic scare, or.... well, King Charles is 76 years old, and hasn't been in the best of health; as we saw with his mother's death two years ago, the passing of a monarch could lead to major fixture rearrangements over two or three gameweeks across a season. 

Such eventualities might be relatively remote, but they're extremely possible. And if such a thing were to occur in a gameweek where someone has their 'Assistant Manager' chip in play..... they are terminally screwed. Small though the risk may appear to be, it's not one I'm sure I'd be willing to take.

But I really don't want to spend any time even attempting to address these endless conundrums. For me, the 'Assistant Manager' chip is a game-ruining abomination - and, in order to make sure that FPL does not try to make it (or, god help us, perhaps some other innovation that's even worse...) a recurring feature of the game, we really need to protest against the idea as strongly as possible, in as many different ways as possible.

I like the idea of simply refusing to use the chip. But I fear it will not be an emphatic enough gesture to have much impact on the FPL hierarchy. (Many FPL managers might simply forget to use the chip, or be too daunted by its complexity; and more and more managers get disillusioned with their progress and drop out of the game during the later stages of the season. So - a mass refusal to use the chip would not become apparent until the last opportunity to deploy it [GW36] has passed; and it might be largely masked by all these other reasons why the chip might have gone unused by many people.)

No, if we are to make the FPL 'bosses' take notice, I think we need to encourage as many people as possible to drop out of the game at the moment that this horrendously gimmicky new chip comes into force - immediately after Gameweek 23. [I did so, quitting after GW23 in hopes of setting an example for others.]

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip