Luck-o-Meter (19)

Stefan Ortega had a close-call when he was excused for body-checking Vardy in the penalty area early on, as the home side's hero was adjudged to have been marginally offside when he began his lightning break in behind the City defence. It was one of those calls that looked very unconvincing, and was really too close to render a decision on. How much was there supposed to be in it - the length of Vardy's toes?? It was one of those where advancing or reversing the video playback by one frame would have made an enormous difference to the players' relative positions. Even if the call was technically 'correct' under the current application of the rules, Ortega was extraordinarily lucky not to get himself sent off there, and to gift Leicester an early lead. City will no doubt be hugely relieved to get back in winning ways (though DeBruyne - and later McAtee - provided the only real high spots), and to have their big Viking finding the target again (after recording only 1 league goal in his previous 7 outings); but this was again not really a very convincing or controlled performance; Leicester were completely on top for much of the second half, and were really quite unfortunate not to have got at least a draw out of the game - after Buonanotte looped a header against a post, Justin's improvised effort was scambled off the goal-line by Akanji, and Vardy was played in for a great chance by Mavididi but couldn't keep his stretching volley under the bar. Buonanotte also had a decent penalty shout waved away. when Ake made a rash sliding block against him; it was a poor challenge, but it was not clear that there was any contact actually made. However, on one of the TV angles, I thought it looked like the defender did just clip him; it was one of those calls that really needed to be studied closely from as many angles as possible, to determine if there had been contact or not; but it seemed that VAR dismissed the appeal in a matter of seconds, succumbing - yet again - to the ridiculously heavy bias in favour of upholding the referee's original decision. I would also note that Josko Gvardiol - still the game's 6th most popular defender, with 21.5% ownership - had another stinker of a game (he was the lowest-rated City player on the BBC Sports website... apart from Kyle Walker); he's really looked very poor - defensively, at least - for quite a few games now, and must surely be due for a bit of a rest.... as soon as City have any other defenders available.

Crystal Palace's win over Southampton produced the goal of the day (Eze's fierce half-volley from the edge of the box) and one of the saves of the season (Ramsdale's fabulous reaction stop low to his left to deny Ismaila Sarr's breakaway), but was otherwise a fairly drab affair. Juric naturally complained afterwards about Ramsdale having been shoved by Mateta in the goalmouth scramble that produced Palace's equaliser, but there didn't look to be much in the claim; the goalkeeper here just needed to be a bit stronger (rather than looking for the foul by staggering theatrically backwards into his goal), or assign one of his defenders to manhandle the big forward out of the way.

Oh dearie me! Someone gave Chris Wood a new pair of scoring boots for Christmas! Or perhaps it's just the operation of my infallible power of jinx again - I'd just given up on him and moved him out of the squad... While not the most spectacular finish, I think that delicate side-foot volley to gently chip the ball over Pickford's head was quite exquisite, and should be a 'Goal of the Month' contender. And just as I start to get excited about Everton's improving defensive form, they revert to being wobbly at home... (At least I hadn't piled in for any of their players yet. I'll actually be quite pleased if they falter again, as I think the relegation battle will be more entertaining if it involves more than just Wolves, Leicester, and Ipswich.)  And Murillo was a last-minute dropout, after feeling a problem in the warm-up; a major stroke of ill luck for anyone who happened to have him (Aina and Milenkovic have been the more popular choices this year. although Murillo's in about 3.5% of squads); this is the first time I can remember this happening this season, but there are probably a few prior instances that have slipped my mind (this is the first time it's happened to a player I'm interested in). Forest, however, were not notably weakened by his absence.

Spurs v Wolves was a clash of two teams who look quite dangerous in attack, but hopelessly vulnerable in defence; with better finishing, they could have had 3 or 4 apiece. Spurs, though, should really have been able to put the game to bed after recovering from the early setback to get in front; Strand Larsen's late equaliser really came out of nowhere (though Forster probably should have been able to keep it out). The one egregious refereeing mess-up was the unfathomable decision to award Spurs a penalty for Johnson's clash with Andre; even Johnson looked a little surprised and shamefaced when the referee pointed to the spot. It can sometimes be hard to make the call on this kind of contact, and you can see referees giving the benefit of the doubt to the attacking player when it's anywhere near a 50/50; but for me, this was more like an 80/20 - Johnson deliberately put his leg across in front of the defender as he ran up alongside him, tripping him: the contact was totally initiated by the Spurs player, it was a foul the other way. Perhaps Son also felt embarassed about the injustice of the decision, since he contrived to mess up the spot-kick conversion. Since the penalty wasn't scored, it probably didn't have much influence on the overall outcome of the game; but it did, of course, have a huge impact on FPL points, with Sa getting points for a penalty save and Son getting negative points for a miss.

Fulham v Bournemouth was a cracking game of football, free-flowing and evenly matched - much the best of the gameweek so far, I think. And it produced some superb goals, with Evanilson's (his first for 7 weeks, apparently; it hadn't seemed that long to me - but he's never struck me as a particularly tempting third-forward pick anyway) the pick of the crop, although you won't see many better headers than Raul's and Wilson's. However, fond though I am of Bournemouth, I have to say I think their second equaliser should have been chalked off, for Semenyo wiping out Diop with his follow-through in supplying the assist to Ouattara; VAR's pronouncement that the contact was accidental, unavoidable, non-culpable... was utter nonsense. I did think they got things right earlier in the game, though, when Fulham players were baying for a red card for Ryan Christie's messy challenge on Robinson; that was one where the two players were rushing into each, both partly responsible for the coming-together; Christie was showing his studs very high, but he actually tried to pull out of the impact, and the contact was thus very light.

Liverpool's predictable demolition of West Ham wasn't quite as one-sided as the final scoreline made it appear. Although they had barely a third as many goal attempts (and, strangely, none were recorded as being 'on target'), they did quite often look threatening on the break, and the game might have taken on a different complexion if Paqueta hadn't completely fluffed a good chance laid on by Bowen in the opening minutes. The Brazilian had a good effort deflected on to the outside of the post by Van Dijk's heel near the end as well; while Mo Kudus crashed a neat curler from distance and a firm close-range header against the woodwork. Mo Salah was presumably penalised by the BPS for being so profligate with his chances; but he wasn't the only one - he might have notched 2 or 3 more assists as well, if some of his teammates had been a little sharper in their finishing. It is terrifying to think that (as with Palmer's monster haul against Brighton this season) Salah's 16-point tally here might have been much, much more: there is a universe in which he bagged 6 or 7 goals last night, and almost as many assists! While the BPS has traditionally hated Mo (for taking a lot of shots at goal, and not always getting them on target), it has long had an obscene man-crush on Trent: here, with so many other oustanding contributions from Liverpool players, it is really difficult to see how he earned even 1 extra point, let alone 3! Indeed, it feels somewhat unjust that he was even credited with the goal, since although his initial shot might have been on target (even that might be open to question: it looked a bit high to me, and would have had to dip sharply to get under the crossbar), it really posed no threat, and Kilman's headed deflection on it was massive, decisve. Some better definitions of key 'game actions' like this, and more consistent and transparent application of these definitions, would be very welcome for making the game seem more fair. Areola, restored to the West Ham goal by Fabianski's concussion, also deserves a lot of credit for keeping the score down to single figures; he notched 8 saves, a few of them very impressive ones - although he might possibly be held slightly at fault for getting a hand to Salah's first goal but failing to keep it out.

The Villa v Brighton game saw 3 particularly sweet finishes, from Adingra, Lamptey, and Rogers. But it was another game marred by a bizarre refereeing decision: Watkins was able to convert a penalty, after Joao Pedro was apparently deemed culpable for being in the way of Rogers's wild lunge at the ball; the Brighton man was obviously the one being kicked, and a foul should have been given his way. On the TV highlights, it looked as though the decision had been made solely by VAR; but in fact it seems to have been yet another case where the referee whistled hastily for a non-existent foul, and the VAR team didn't want to embarrass a colleague by declaring that he'd made a 'clear and obvious error' - even though he had. [OK: The views I initially saw looked very much as if Rogers had swiped at a ball he was never likely to reach, and had made thigh-on-thigh or shin-on-shin contact with Pedro. But fuller highlights I found later included the VAR footage, which showed that Rogers did in fact get something of the ball - not much - and that it was Pedro's foot that made contact with him, tapping his heel a tiny fraction of a second after the ball had gone. But it was a very minimal contact, accidental and inconsequential; they were both going to kick the same ball and their feet touched - it happens; it's not always a penalty. And it didn't look to me like this one was. Also, though the official highlights entirely omitted this, the referee was directed to the pitchside monitor to reconsider his original decision of 'no foul'. It is kind of important for viewers to know exactly how wrong decisions like this have been made.] 

Pedro at least had another very lively game, and would surely have got more than just the 1 bonus point if he hadn't been harshly penalised for conceding that penalty. However, he did get lucky in being credited with both assists; the first one surely should have gone to Lewis Dunk for his finely weighted long ball over the top; Pedro seemed to have simply misread the bounce of the ball and run past it - a nice dummy to mislead the defenders, but there was minimal if any contact with the ball, and certainly not decisive in its falling so neatly to Adingra racing up behind him. (The attribution of 'assists' is one of the weirdest things going on in FPL this season! I don't know if they rely solely on the FA or Opta to make these determinations, or if they retain a discretion to revise them themselves...?) On top of Brighton's other problems at the moment, Verbruggen seems to have become yet another keeper who can't deal with being crowded when facing corner-kicks.... [Ooops - I recommended him as 'one to watch' just a month ago; that really hasn't worked out at all!]

The Sheep will no doubt again be complaining that Cole Palmer has become rubbish, after he 'blanked' last night as Chelsea slipped to a surprise defeat at Ipswich. In fact, he was on fire, as usual; it was just the rest of the team that was a bit flat. He brought one superb save out of stand-in keeper Christian Walton with a fierce shot from the edge of the box, smacked a free-kick against the post with the goalkeeper stranded (and a defender then intercepted the rebound before it could reach a Chelsea man for a tap-in.... and played it straight back to the keeper, who fell on it gratefully and picked it up - yet this was not penalised as 'handling a back-pass'? WTF?? I've complained once or twice before in this series that this rule just about never gets applied any more, though we see examples almost every week where it should be....), and saw Joao Felix head home his majestic cross - only to be ruled narrowly offside (this decision was clearly 'correct' under the modern rules, nearly a foot in it, rather than just fractions of an inch; but I still hanker for the good old days where an attacker was still considered onside if there was any 'body overlap' with the last defender). Chelsea could have won this game fairly comfortably, and Palmer, on any other day, might have claimed a couple of goals and a couple of assists - he was desperately unlucky here. Worst of all, Chelsea - who haven't been able to get a penalty of their own all season (maybe 1 or 2, compared to about 6 at the same point last year?) - were on the wrong end of one of the worst decisions of the year, when referee John Brooks ruled that keeper Jorgensen had brought down Liam Delap in the box; there was pretty clearly no contact at all, and Delap had just dived; this was pretty easy to recognise with the naked eye, and even more clearcut on TV replays - yet VAR somehow declined to overrule the referee, or even to suggest the sometimes helpful 'second look'. Without that appalling officiating cock-up so early on, Chelsea would surely have gone on to win the game as expected. [I'm pleased for Ipswich, as I've been saying all season that they look to me really the best of this year's promoted clubs, and might deserve to stay up. But I'm gutted for my three Chelsea players who all failed to return....]

From the brief highlights I was able to find, it looked as if misfiring Manchester United were never in the game against Newcastle; they didn't have an attempt on goal until Casemiro blazed wide in the closing minutes. Newcastle really should have made more of their easy dominance, having gone two up inside 20 minutes, but later chances were all squandered. Trippier mocked Onana's recent floundering at set-pieces by trying to score directly from a corner - and nearly succeeded. Apparently, some United fans have been carping that Joelinton's headed goal potentially came off his arm - but it really didn't look anywhere close to me; top of his shoulder, maybe. And none of the United players appeared to appeal for it at the time, so I think that's just a delusional gripe.

Well, there's still Brentford v Arsenal on New Year's Day to round out this extended Gameweek, but... let's hope there's no more controversy and crap officiating in that one. 

What do you know? It seems there weren't any bad refereeing calls in the New Year's Day game??!! Arsenal got off to an unconvincing start, not creating many decent chances despite dominating possession, and repeatedly looking vulnerable on the counter-attack. And David Raya was having a particularly off-day, being arguably at fault for the first goal (partly unsighted, perhaps, but had left a very big gap at his near post), and looking very flakey with his distribution. The game might have got away from the Gunners if a second Mbeumo breakaway had stretched the lead to 2-0; but this time Raya managed to dramatically scoop the ball away from his line at the last second, after his weak first parry had left the effort still goalbound. Arsenal came out stronger in the second half, and Brentford's dodgy defence - and Flekken's inability to cope with a crowded six-yard box - ultimately allowed them to come through fairly comfortably. Teen prodigy Ethan Nwaneri was clearly their 'Man of the Match', but didn't make any impression on the BPS ranking at all (some of the most emphatic proof yet that the BPS really needs to be changed); and I fear Arteta will not trust him as a regular Saka replacement - although he might prove to be one of the great FPL bargains of the next few months, if he did.

The 'Team of the Week' doesn't look that crazy for once; although Chalobah, Ait-Nouri, Rogers and Savinho are mildly surprising entries on to that list; and Ipswich reserve keeper Walton is a very surprising one!  But with three penalties given that should not have been given, and one - against City! - not given, that probably should have been (on top of Ortega's lucky escape in the opening minutes!!), Ouattara's equaliser beng wrongly allowed, and Salah's strange profligacy with his multiple scoring chances,.... I'm provisionally going to have to call this a 7 out of 10 on the Luck-o-Meter. [On Sunday's games, I thought it was no more than a 4 or a 5; but that dreadful decision on the Ipswich penalty is worth at least 3 more points on its own!]

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