Picks of the Week (2)

 DISCLAIMER: I always refuse to identify myself as any sort of FPL 'guru' or 'mentor' or 'expert'. And I have previously on this blog expressed my reluctance to share many details of my own selections, or to make very specific player recommendations.

However, in addition to occasionally critiquing common 'sheep picks' of the moment (not all necessarily outright bad, but ridiculously over-popular selections), I thought I would start occasionally trying to highlight one or two players who seem not yet to be very widely owned but are starting to look very tempting prospects.

I will generally try to come up with at least 2 options per week - so that it doesn't look like I'm making a sole recommendation. And these suggestions are intended to be simply 'worth thinking about', not at all 'must-haves'   (And some weeks, I'll have nothing.....)

In Gameweek 13 I'm most excited about Jurrien Timber. I always thought he could be a very tempting - cheaper - way to get some representation in the formidable Arsenal defence; but the start of his season was interrupted by a string of injuries. That record is still a bit of a worry for anyone thinking of acquiring him, but - it is time to be brave, I think. He's now started the last 4 games with no sign of a 'reaction'; and he has looked a bit of a monster in each of them - fast, strong, and very composed on the ball. The medium-term absence of Ben White now removes any serious threat of rotation. And the likelihood that he'll be starting on the right rather than the left means that he should be able to get involved in the attack a bit more, and have a few opportunities to provide an 'assist' for Saka or Odegaard. Although Arsenal's January schedule is looking a bit testing, their run up until the end of the year is very soft indeed. I am usually wary of doubling up in defence, but with the number of strong clean sheet prospects Arsenal face over the coming five weeks, there's a strong case for fielding both Gabriel (or Saliba, if you must) and Timber.

I also recommend Georginio Rutter of Brighton. His minutes have been a little short; but, on the plus side, that means Hurzeler is mostly 'rotating' his big squad with time off the bench rather than sharing starts around too much. Rutter has begun every game since GW3, and 2 goals and 4 assists in that time is a pretty good return for a bargain midfielder. And the 'eye test' recommends him even more highly than his numbers so far: like Palmer, he's one of those players you just can't take your eyes off - he looks super-sharp all the time, constantly switched-on, constantly eager and alert, constantly looking to get on the ball and make something happen. With the very favourable fixture run Brighton are now enjoying (they don't have a really tough game until mid-February - apart from their New Year fixture against Arsenal; and at least that's at home), I have a feeling he could be about to explode. He's only 1 point adrift of the the recently disappointing Semenyo and Rogers with 2 fewer games than them, and making a strong claim to displace them - or the lately even more suspect McNeil or Smith Rowe - from the budget midfielder slot. And at the moment, his ownership is still ridiculously low - only just over 1.5%!

And I'll throw in a third suggestion this week: Bart Verbruggen. I wasn't at all convinced by the Dutch keeper when he joined Brighton at the beginning of last year (but that may have been partly bitterness on my part, as I'd had Jason Steele in my initial squad for the season!). Like his countryman Flekken, he took some time to settle into the pace of the Premier League; and his adjustment was made harder by De Zerbi's perverse keeper rotation policy. But, unlike Flekken, he improved enormously, and gradually established his claim to be the preferred starter. This season, he's been doing a very solid job, impressively calm and unflappable. Brighton's inability to keep a clean sheet is a bit of a worry (only 1 so far), but they do seem to be getting a little stronger defensively, I think. He's well up in the top ten for 'saves', and has one of the best xGC delta numbers - nearly -3.5. He's saving Brighton a goal, and valuable points, every 3 or 4 games. The points tally might not yet reflect it, but on form he is pretty nearly the best keeper in the league at the moment. And Brighton have a lovely fixture run now; apart from Villa and Arsenal at the turn of the year, it's pretty much all soft games until the middle of February. Even they should be able to keep a few clean sheets during this spell, surely....

How did they do?

Well, Brighton suffered the curse of the evening kick-off in their Friday visit to Southampton: they dominated the game but couldn't quite put their chances away, and ended up losing narrowly. So, nothing for Verbruggen in my first week backing him (only a solitary save credited to him, and 2 goals conceded); but Rutter was very impressive, constantly looking to cause danger. Along with Mitoma, he was Brighton's best player on the night, and was unlucky not to convert one of 3 fantastic chances that he carved out single-handedly: one low shot inches wide of the post, a beautiful curler that smashed against the inside of the other post, and then a spectacular bicycle-kick which deflected wide off a defender. If he carries on in this form, he's looking likely to pick up a lot of goals.  

Rutter, alas, continued to disappoint: he was rested against Fulham in GW14, and only registered 'appearance points' in his next three outings. He's still looking lively - usually one of Brighton's best two or three players - but the team lost its way rather in December, suffering a dreadful slump in form; something that I don't think anyone saw coming.

I'm more embarrassed about Verbruggen, who really looked quite poor over the next 5 games, conceding 10 goals and not keeping any clean sheets, as Brighton crashed to 3-1 defeats to Fulham and Palace, and laboured to draws against relegation fodder Southampton, Leicester and West Ham. (I protest that I just threw him in as an afterthought, a possible one to watch rather than a primary recommendation.) His return of just 8 points over these 5 games was quite dismal.

Timber, on the other hand, is looking a solid recommendation. He got off to a disappointing start, being one of the few players not to claim a share of the goodies in the demolition of West Ham; and it was a bummer that Arsenal somehow managed to concede 2 goals in that game. Nonetheless, Timber is, as anticipated, now a nailed starter at full-back, usually on the right, and impressing every week. He picked up clean sheets in two of the next three matches, and also notched a goal and maximum bonus points against Manchester United. 24 points from 4 matches: not bad! Though I'm bummed that he again missed out on a share in the attacking points in the emphatic victory over Crystal Palace in GW17, and picked up a late booking too....