Luck-o-Meter (18)

Bournemouth v Palace was one of the more entertaining 0-0 draws I've seen this season, with both sides producing some fluent attacking football - but struggling to find a decisive finish against each other's well-organised defences. Eze was back starting, and looked lively (with Palace's much improved form in recent games, he could perhaps become a candidate for a Saka replacement). And 3.7% of FPL managers are probably disgruntled at Iraola resting Evanilson in favour of Unal up front; but we have to expect these sorts of rotations in December.

Manchester City managed a lively start, looking about the best they have in two months or so (the omission of Walker, Gundogan - and, gosh, yes, even DeBruyne - immediately improves things),... but only for about the first 25 minutes; then they progressively faded out of the game. And they were very lucky that Everton were not able to capitalise on a 4-on-2 break in the dying minutes to claim the win. The result might perhaps have been different if a few things had broken City's way during their early spell of dominance: Gvardiol very nearly bagged yet another goal with a strong header against the post, and Bernardo Silva squandered a great chance shortly after giving City the lead (he was very fortunate to be credited with that goal, since it needed a huge, decisive deflection via Branthwaite's attempted block to find its way over Pickford and in at the far post; however, we never like to see defenders penalised with 'own goals', and it would have been particularly harsh on Branthwaite here - who otherwise produced an outstanding performance). And Haaland missed a penalty - hails of derisive laughter!! At the moment, City have relegation form; and I can't see that changing unless they make some important signings next month.

Unpromising historical stats could be invoked on both sides in the Chelsea v Fulham match: Fulham hadn't won a game at Stamford Bridge in over 45 years, and hadn't even managed to score a goal there for the last 13 years; but Chelsea have a pretty horrible record in London derbies played on Boxing Day. It was the latter hoodoo that ultimately prevailed. Despite taking an early lead through a piece of individual magic from Palmer, Chelsea looked a bit flat (with Jackson and Neto particularly off their game, and Enzo Fernandez not able to get involved in the final third very much in the absence of Lavia), and allowed Fulham to start getting on top in the second half. Even so, Fulham needed a few smart saves by Leno, from Curcurella, Fernandez, and, in the dying seconds, Nkunku to take home the points. The late, late winner from out-of-favour substitute Rodrigo Muniz counts as a bit of a surprise; but the refereeing was impeccable in this one.

Jhon Duran's sending-off at Newcastle spoiled the game for Villa, and was probably the worst decision of the Gameweek. His bafflement at the red card looked entirely genuine, and his treading on the defender was clearly accidental. What's more, there was some confusion as to how the decision was even made - with Anthony Taylor hesitating quite a long time before producing a card, and the commentator at the time suggesting that the decision had been recommended by the VAR official. VAR should surely not be directly overruling the on-pitch referee on an issue like this; but equally, if it was Taylor's decision, they should have recommended he take a second look on the pitchside monitor - because a sending-off can have a momentous impact on a game, and you really need to take care to get these decisions right; and this one was wrong. It was, I think, so egregiously wrong that there should be some hope Villa can get the decision rescinded on appeal, and have Duran available for the weekend after all. I'm not sure that it made much difference to the ultimate result, though. Villa looked a distant second-best throughout, and were already behind from Gordon's stunning curler. With Newcastle in such sharp form at the moment, they were lucky to avoid a cricket score: Martinez produced a great save from Tonali's drive, Bruno Guimaraes smacked one against a post, and three Newcastle goals were (rightly) disallowed. Tino Livramento's late dropping out with illness - and Kieran Trippier's consequent restoration to the starting lineup - will have affected a few FPL managers; but not as much as Duran again replacing Watkins as the Villa No. 9. (I'd said just the other day I was very confident that wouldn't happen. And I'm still doubtful it will on a regular basis. I suspect there's some fitness issue with Watkins. And, when fully fit, he's too good to be dropped, however strong the form of his understudy is. The best that Duran can hope for is occasional rotation, or perhaps being played as a support striker alongside Watkins - but not being the sole centre-forward to the exclusion of Watkins.)

Another win and clean sheet at home for Forest wasn't exactly a surprise; they have grown into one of the best defensive sides in the league this season. Sels had to make three good stops from Brennan Johnson, but apart from that, Spurs didn't really do much with their more-than-70% possession. However, while I do think Forest were well worth their win, Elanga must have been very, very close to offside for his goal - and we didn't see any VAR decision made on that?! It is the inconsistency and lack of transparency about the VAR process that I am finding so exasperating this season, as much as the sheer number of bad decisions emanating from it. Djed Spence can't have much complaint about his late sending-off for a second yellow card offence. But Spurs fans - and those FPL managers rash enough to have taken a chance on him - will probably complain about the benching of James Maddison. Amazingly, his ownership is now up to nearly 12%, with some 400,000 people having transferred him in this week - as an ideal replacement for Saka?? - despite his having been subbed off after 55 minutes last week!

Southampton immediately look much improved under new coach, Ivan Juric, and although they're probably too far adrift to have any hope of Premier League survival, they should be capable of causing opponents a lot more difficulty over the second half of the season. They really dominated a lacklustre West Ham throughout here, bringing 3 sharp saves out of Fabianski in the 35 minutes he was on the pitch before having to go off with a concussion, and a few more from Areola afterwards. They looked good for at least a draw here, and if they'd been able to stop the ever-lively Bowen nicking a goal from a corner, they would have got one. At least VAR here was doing its job, as West Ham's holding midfielder Guido Rodriguez, initially shown a straight red card for a clumsy but not violent challenge, was quickly reprieved (although again the process was rather unclear, at least on the TV coverage; highlights did not show any visit to the pitchside monitor, and the BBC commentator did not explain why the referee had changed his mind about the card). West Ham under Lopategui continue to look very unimpressive, and I would still bet on him being the next manager to lose his job. 

Wolves look remarkably revitalized under new coach Vitor Pereira, picking up their second straight win since Gary O'Neill's dismissal. Cunha had a superb game (though he should not have been playing; I cannot see why the FA are taking so long to hand down a ban for his assault after the Ipswich game), and nicked the opening goal with a cheeky curler direct from the corner-kick (I can't remember the last time I saw that in an EPL game!). United fans are whingeing that Onana was unfairly 'impeded' in that incident, but the Wolves players weren't even boxing him in that tightly, and it was entirely his own fault that he did not assert himself physically in that situation. Bruno's sending-off for a second yellow card early in the second half may have turned the course of the game, although United really hadn't looked very dangerous before that: José Sá had to make one very good save from a curling effort by his countryman Dalot, but that was about it. Wolves perhaps hadn't really earned a two-goal margin of victory, and grabbing their second on a breakway so deep into added-on time must be considered a little lucky; but they were certainly worth the win - and Amorim's team have all sorts of problems.

I suppose we should count ourselves lucky that the Liverpool v Leicester game went ahead: cancellation had been considered, because of the heavy fog. (It would have been nice to use a high-vis ball in those conditions, wouldn't it? Maybe that was supposed to be a high-vis ball... but I was struggling to see it in the first half!). We also felt much relief after Salah finally came good: early on, it was looking as though it might be 'one of those days', with him prodding an effort against the near post in the opening minutes, then having a deflected shot loop on to the roof of the net with the keeper stranded, then smacking a delicious curler against the crossbar (Andy Robertson also saw a superb angled header smash against the face of the far post...). And I am once again mystified by VAR's application of the Offside Laws: it is unfathomable that they could take over 3 minutes to render a decision on Gakpo's disallowed second goal, and provide no explanation for that decision. Apparently, Nunez was adjudged to be offside, but: a) he didn't look it; b) he didn't play the ball; and c) Salah's cross was subsequently cleared by a Leicester defender, which surely initiates a new 'phase of play'? Yet another utterly opaque and daft - and painfully slow - decision; I am getting so sick of having to suffer these every single week. Ward's omission can't really be considered a surprise after his dreadful game last week (although I confess I had suggested in my weekly roundup that his manager would probably stick with him), and it is unlikely to have affected many people anyway; but Vardy's absence with a knock is likely to have inconvenienced a few people - while some may have profited from Jordan Ayew's surprise opening goal. And the 0.8% of people who own Patson Daka (how is it that many??), and the much larger numbers who hate Liverpool, will be aggrieved that he managed to fluff a complete sitter. All in all, though, not too much to twitch the Luck-o-meter needle in this match.

Brighton had one of those frustrating games against Brentford, where they dominated in attack (24 attempts on goal!), but somehow couldn't find an effective finish. Flekken was in particularly good form in the Brentford goal, racking up 6 good saves in just over half an hour, before having to retire with a groin strain. Riley, Enciso, Mitoma, and the returning Solly March all went close from distance; and back-up keeper Valdimarsson was also impressive. Weirdly, though, despite Brentford barely threatening at the other end, it was the Brighton defence, and Bart Verbruggen, who dominated the BPS scores - what's up with that??  Brentford maybe should have nicked it, with the best chance of the game being Wissa's first-half breakaway, where he netted confidently, but then had VAR declare that he'd been offside by a kneecap; another utterly ridiculous decision. Joao Pedro was also extremely lucky to escape a straight red card for flinging an elbow at Yarmoliuk in frustration; he didn't make contact, but he was pretty close, and he appeared to do it in earnest, with some violence. That is supposed to count as 'violent conduct', and it is baffling that the referee did not see it that way; even more disturbing was the subsequent note from VAR on the incident, which seemed to imply that they thought the referee had been wrong - but not 'clearly and obviously' so??!!  VAR is ruining the game at the moment; it needs a complete overhaul. [On seeing that incident again, I think he does look as though Pedro pulled out of delivering the blow with elbow to face. But even so, just shying at an opponent like, just making a threatening gesture that extreme... can be construed as 'violent conduct'. He was  a very, very lucky boy to escape punishment for that.]

Arsenal got the job done against a resolute Ipswich defence, but were probably relieved to take home all the points thanks to Havertz's solitary tap-in. Muric was in good form, making a particularly fine save from Merino late on. Timber, Odegaard, and Gabriel also had decent efforts (Gabriel really should have scored!); and Arsenal should surely have had a penalty when an Ipswich player prevented Havertz from getting a decisive contact on a ball into the six-yard box by hauling back on his shirt. The BPS tallies were again a little surprising, with Timber somehow edging Havertz out of the top bonus-points spot (presumably because of his booking; although it is unusual for the sole goalscorer not to claim the maximum bonus).

Fulham's late win over Chelsea, and Wolves' victory over Manchester United were the only 'upset' results of the gameweek, although the double clean sheets for Bournemouth and Palace, and Brighton and Brentford were also somewhat surprising. And even with City's recent dismal form, Haaland missing a penalty was a bit of a turn-up for the books. 

We did see a few outstanding goals in this batch of games - from Palmer, Gordon, Ndiaye, Elanga, Gakpo and Salah - but rather more outstanding saves.... and an above-average number of efforts clattering the woodwork! And the 'Team of the Week' this time is a really strange one: Verbruggen somehow takes the goalkeeper spot (despite having almost nothing to do in the game?!); Wan-Bissaka, Van Hecke, Joelinton, Elanga, Ndiaye (hasn't come close to having a scoring chance in a couple of months), Cunha (why isn't he banned yet??), and Gakpo (not an invariable starter...) also feature - WHO owns any of them (well, apart from Cunha...)??

The refereeing overall wasn't too terrible - but there were several extremely dubious offside calls, and the red card decisions on Duran and Joao Pedro were just appalling. And the FA continuing to drag its feet on announcing Cunha's ban is quite mind-boggling. So, I think this is once again about a 7 out of 10 on my Luck-o-Meter.

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