Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 14

I always think of December as 'Random Month' - mounting exhaustion, dreadful weather, and a slew of unpredictable 'rest rotations' lead to some yo-yo-ing form and a lot of unexpected results - particularly in a set of midweek fixtures like this. Sure enough, here we've seen surprise wins for Leeds and Everton, and ridiculous ding-dong matches at Fulham, Brighton, and Newcastle!

Bournemouth will feel a little unlucky that they couldn't make their superiority count in a fairly dour game against Everton. Semenyo had a strong first-half shot well-parried by Pickford, and just before the break Kroupi appeared to have put the home side ahead with a slick run to the near-post, but was caught just offside by Adli's unnecessary touch on Kluivert's cross as it came through to him. It was left to Jack Grealish (of all people - he hadn't registered an attacking return, or, really, come closing to doing so, in the last 6 games!), to break the deadlock on a quick break through the middle; although he was a bit lucky to be credited with the goal, as his shot might not have been on target, and surely wouldn't have beaten Petrovic without an enormous deflection off the shin of Diakite.

At Fulham on Tuesday, Haaland looked much sharper than he had at the weekend against Leeds; but still things seemed to be not quite clicking for him at first, as he crashed an early left-foot shot against the foot of the post. But it didn't take him long to make amends, as he lashed home a Doku cross from the penalty spot. He later added a couple of assists as well (the first a nicely weighted through-ball to Reijnders, but the second merely fortuitous, as he miscontrolled a cross which then fell to Foden at the far post), to give him his second-best haul of the season so far (salt in the wounds of all those FPL managers who'd been so sorely disappointed by their Triple Captaincy bet on him on Saturday), and might indeed have had more, as he hit the woodwork again in the second-half, with a thunderous header. But having been 3-0 up in the game just before half-time, and 5-1 ahead inside 55 minutes, Pep will surely be furious with his team that they allowed the home side to claw their way back into the contest - wih stunning strikes from Iwobi and Chukwueze (twice!) - to set up a very nervous end to the game. Indeed, Fulham very nearly pulled off a record-setting comeback, with a Josh King effort in added-on time having to be lashed off by the line by a back-pedalling Gvardiol. One of the games of the season - and one that somehow furnished its own mini 'Goal of the Month' competition!

At Newcastle, Van de Ven, Richarlison, and Gordon were the rest rotations de jour. The home side were completely on top at first, with Joelinton cracking a low cross-shot against the inside of the far post. But a little later, Spurs enjoyed a little spell of pressure, and Bergvall almost nicked the lead with an impish back-heeled volley from Kudus's cross. Newcastle looked even more dominant in the second half, and will be baffled as to how they didn't manage to score more than just Guimaraes's goal - and how they were later punished with a late Spurs fightback, where two late goals from Remero, a brave stooping header at the near-post then a shinner of a bicycle-kick (that Ramsdale probably should have been able to keep out), stole two of the points from them - twice in quick succession. Newcastle had quickly regained the lead from a Gordon penalty (he'd only just come on as a substitute), but couldn't hang on to it.

Arteta didn't endear himself to the FPL community by resting the massively popular Timber and Saka here (although Timber got on at half-time, to replace Mosquera in central defence, and Saka played the last half-hour or so), and Saliba still wasn't fit to play. Also, you have to worry that the gaffer's continuing to start Merino in preference to the fit-again Gyokeres must be dampening the Swede's confidence. White and Madueke were so good here that you wonder if they might have staked a claim to a more regular start: Madueke could operate also on the left wing (displacing Eze?), but Timber would have to give way for White, who was outstanding here (for once, his BPS rating was in accord with the 'Man of the Match' award - that doesn't happen nearly often enough!). Saka's cameo was long enough to nick a late goal in added-on time; and he should really have had 2, since he'd misshit a sitter a few minutes earlier. Brentford never really got in the game here, though Arsenal were well below their best - mostly huffing and puffing to little avail, as they had against 10-man Chelsea at the weekend.

In-form Danny Welbeck was rested for the visit of Villa, and that may have cost Brighton dearly. Marco Bizot, rather bizarrely given a start in goal over Emi Martinez, immediately looked likely to be a costly decision as well, as he flapped ineffectually at an early corner to allow Van Hecke to put Brighton ahead with a free header (although Villa had a point that a corner shouldn't have been awarded, since the ball had clearly gone out off a Brighton player). Like Wirtz at Anfield, Hinshelwood was unfortunate to be denied a goal after his fine break down the left put the home side 2-0 mup; but in this case, his shot had looked well wide of the far post before Pau Torres unluckily got a toe on it to divert it past his keeper. In a bizarre ding-dong of a match, though, Villa rallied strongly, and got back in the game with a brace of goals from Ollie Watkins just before the break; the second, in the dying seconds of added-on time, rounded off a bizarre sequence of play where Konsa was convinced he'd scored from a corner, but the ref said the goalline technology hadn't indicated the ball was fully over the line, Brighton immediately broke down the other end on a quick counter, but Gruda wasted the chance, and then Pau Torres pinged a long ball over the middle to Watkins to launch a counter-counter - and the big forward did well to resist three Brighton defenders closing in around him before getting off his low shot past Verbruggen. Onana put the visitors in front by heading home a corner on the hour, and then substitute Malen (how is he not starting??) stabbed home a fourth in a goalmouh scramble. But this topsy-turvy game still wasn't done, as Van Hecke (again?!) fired in a cracker from the edge of the box in the 83rd minute to give Villa an anxious end to the game - and Bizot was able to redeem himself with a point-blank save from Welbeck's header (he'd come on as a sub for the last 20-odd minutes). For me, this was yet another game where Villa didn't really seem to have deserved the win, but things somehow broke for them at the right time

Burnley v Palace was a close-fought encounter, with the home side defending resolutely, and creating some attacking danger: Henderson needed to make a couple of smart saves, and they nearly nicked an equaliser in added-on time at the end when Henderson missed a cross under pressure from Broja, and the ball fortuitously looped off the Albanian's back towards the goal, but was cleared from the goalmouth by Chris Richards. Another goal from Munoz, emphatically converting Guehi's great early cross from the left, made the difference.

With Caicedo suspended, Maresca probably couldn't afford the luxury of resting Reece James (and Garnacho, and Estevao, and - still - Palmer), but he did anyway, and thus we saw another downward swing of the Chelsea yo-yo. Although the home side managed to stay on top in most of the possession stats, Leeds completely dominated on chances created, and might well have gone even further ahead in the first-half. However, Chelsea might feel a little aggieved that they didn't get a penalty when Struijk's clumsy slide tripped Delap just inside the box; VAR didn't even seem to consider this as a possible missed call by the refere. A goal from Neto early in the second-half briefly gave Chelsea some momentum again, although they were somewhat fortunate not to concede a third goal almost immediately from Nmecha; this time it was Leeds who might have felt rather hard done-by, as the goalscorer was penalised for having been briefly offside much earlier in the move - how many touches of the ball and repositionings of the defensive line do there have to be before we're considered to be in 'a new phase of play'?? When Leeds eventually nicked a third, after a horrendous mix-up between Tosin and Sanchez, it seemed well deserved. Palmer got on for the last half-hour, but wasn't able to make much impression for his struggling side: he had one good scoring chance, but his first-time shot went the wrong side of the near-post.

Liverpool v Sunderland was a fairly drab affair, with Trai Hume's fierce 25-yard drive needing to be tipped on to the crossbar by Alisson the only really good chance in the first-half (though Wirtz, starting to look livelier in the last few games, had earlier come close to threading the ball through Roef's legs to claim his first league goal). Salah, again omitted at the start, was introduced for the second-half, but had little impact. Sunderland in fact looked livelier and more dangerous after the break at first, and deservedly took the lead with Talbi's long-range effort - though it probably wouldn't have troubled Alisson without a substantial deflection off Van Dijk's bum. Witz did in fact get the home side back on terms fairly quickly, with a neat low shot after a weaving run - but it was rather harshly credited as an own-goal after deflecting off Mukiele's shins (harsh on both attacker and defender; I don't think you could clearly determine that the initial shot was off-target....). Liverpool then went hunting for a winner in the closing minutes, but nearly got caught on the counter by Isidor, who eventually managed to round Alisson only to be thwarted by a goal-line block by Chiesa, who'd made a heroic recovery run to get back and cover . A fine draw for Sunderland, to keep them above Liverpool in the table. But things just keep getting worse for Arne Slot: there now seems little rationale for starting either Salah or Isak, other than desperation.

Morgan Gibbs-White, who had been a doubt beforehand with an ongoing back problem, was able to start at Wolves, which no doubt helped the visitors to assert their superioriy, Igor Jesus was denied his debut goal for Forest (well, made to wait a little longer for it...) by yet another of these 'interfering with the keeper' offside decisions against Dan Ndoye: fair enough on the rules as they stand, but implementation seems inconsistent at the moment, and it's always a bit hard on the goalscorer. Neco Williams, having won a free-kick in a good position by drawing a double-foul just outside the box, decided to take it himself and brought a very good save out of Sam Johnstone at the foot of his far post. Forest's class began to tell, and they increasingly dominated through the second-half, although it wasn't until the 72nd minute that Jesus's goal finally broke the deadlock.

United fans will be peeved they could take all 3 points off struggling West Ham, but for all their dominance of possession, they didn't really produce many clearcut chances. An improvised effort from Zirkzee, again filling in as a centre-forward for the injured Sesko, guided towards goal with his thigh, was headed off the line by Wan-Bissaka, and a follow-up volley from Bruno Fernandes a few moments later grazed the outside of the post; but that was as close as they got, until Diogo Dalot, of all people, fired home from around the penalty spot on the hour mark. Amorim will no doubt be exasperated that his side couldn't defend a corner properly in the closing minutes, Mazraoui heading clear off the line but steering the ball straight to Magassa who graretfully fired it straight back in. The only mild moment of controversy in a fairly dull game appears to have been a muted appeal for a penalty for Bryan Mbeumo in the second-half: Todibo was asking for trouble for dangling a leg out in the United forward's path, but Mbeumo appeared to have jumped over the obstructing limb without making sure that he made some contact with it - and probably should have been booked for 'simulation'.

The FPL 'Team of the Week' isn't looking quite so crazy as it usually has so far this season; although only Haaland (and perhaps Foden) and the Palace defence are likely to have been in many people's line-ups. At least there doesn't seem to have been any terrible refereeing in this batch of games: although Brighton got their first goal from a corner that shouldn't have been given, and Chelsea were mysteriously denied a penalty (yet again: they really have been conspicuously abused on these decisions since the end of the 23/24 season!!); and there were also a number of dubiously attributed - non-attributed - goals that only went in with the aid of big deflections from defenders (Grealish's looked particularly questionable). Ultimaely, though, there don't seem to have been too many of the usual elements of 'LUCK' in this Gameweek - apart from the multiple rest rotations, the occasionally topsy-turvy form, and the large number of goals and unexpected results. I think all of that probably makes it just about a 6 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.

The distant laughter of the Fantasy Gods....

 

On Saturday - when half the world had bet their precious Triple Captain chip on him - the great Erling Haaland played like a man who'd been heavily on the lash on Friday night....

But just three days later, he comes up with a goal and 2 assists, for what would have been a very decent return on the TC chip!!!

The pagan gods who preside over the realm of FPL are not just cruel and capricious, but fond of mockery; it is not enough for them to smash our hopes, they must then taunt us in the midst of our despair.

But really, backing Haaland against Leeds was the 'right' choice, Fulham are a way better team than Leeds, and this match was on their home ground: it was not nearly so favourable a prospect for a big haul from the lanky Viking. (But then, neither were the Bournemouth or Everton games; or even Burnley or Wolves.....! It's impossible to predict with any confidence when the big hauls are going to happen.)

The Crystal Ball revisited

 

Early in the season, I ventured some tentative predictions on where everyone would finish in the EPL this year. Now that we've just passed the one-third point of the season, I thought I should revisit these prognostications - because, of course, many of my initial speculations are looking profoundly wrong! I had, in fact, substantially revised these early expectations within just one or two more games!

I actually wrote this last week, before the Gameweek 13 round of matches had been played. But I didn't really see any reason to modify these opinions after the weekend's matches.

I'll start with probably my most controversial observation: I'm still maintaining a certain scepticism about Arsenal now being shoo-ins for the title. Although they have been superb over the last week of games (rather less so in the lucky draw against 10-man Chelsea on Sunday...), I fear that they might still hit the notorious 'Winter Wobble' - which has seemed to plague them every year under Arteta's reign. I think the return of Martin Odegaard from injury causes them some thorny problems, because Eze is much less effective out on the left (and Trossard and Martinelli and Madueke deserve time in that starting slot as well). I'm also concerned about how constipated Arteta seems to be in using squad rotation: he's not getting the best out of those left-flank players, or Mikel Merino; and we've hardly seen anything yet this year of Ben White, Ethan Nwaneri, or Myles Lewis-Skelly (players of that quality aren't going to be satisfied with token run-outs off the bench). It's also a bit disappointing - and potentially an area of weakness - that they haven't often looked likely to be very free-scoring; it would be a bit of a shame, I think, for our next champions to bore their way to the title on defensive solidity alone. I'd actually be very happy for Arsenal to win it; I've always rather liked the club, particularly in the peak Wenger era when they played such thrilling football; but I think it would be rather unsatisfying for them to claim the title by default, just because all of the other main contenders have proved to be so disappointing.

However, Arsenal's defensive superiority over everybody else is so massive at the moment that it will take a very strong challenge to topple them from the top spot, and I can't now see them finishing any lower than second. Currently, I think the likeliest team to deny them the crown are City. That's very largely down to the form of Erling Haaland, who's having his best season yet with the club (although his league form does now seem to be in a mini-slump over the last few games!): a forward who bags 30 to 35 (or 40...??) goals in a season can certainly carry you to a title. In the initial review, I said that I doubted that Pep could fix all of City's many problems and forge an effective new way of playing for them; but there are signs that he is doing so. They're still inconsistent, and often a bit careless defensively; but Donnarumma's formidable shot-stopping might possibly be salvaging some valuable extra points for them, and the more direct attacking style (long early balls to put the big Norwegian in behind to exploit his pace, and wingers actually taking on their full-backs and looking to play crosses or cut-backs into the box, rather than constantly checking back and recirculating the ball across the horseshoe) is tailored to Haaland's strengths. We still haven't seen the best of Foden (or only very intermittently....), or of Cherki, or Marmoush, or Ait-Nouri. And if Haaland picks up an injury, they're probably screwed. But at the moment, they are keeping Arteta's boys honest - and I think they might just pinch another title win.

Chelsea have been woefully inconsistent. They do lack incisiveness without Palmer pulling the strings for them, and Joao Pedro has rarely had the impact people were hoping for so far. But they are looking one of the best defensive sides, after Arsenal. And they finally seem to be on an upward trend again, after a very shakey spell over the past month or two, with Neto, Garnacho, and Estevao all looking very dangerous on occasions. With Palmer ready to play again, they might yet make a charge for the top. Although I think they probably don't quite have the experience and the strength-in-depth that they'd need to get ahead of City and Arsenal, they should be able to just about keep themselves in the conversation. However, the suspension of Caicedo for Gameweeks 14-16 could be a heavy blow for them in the run-up to Christmas.

The recent under-performance of Liverpool, Spurs, and Newcastle has enabled Bournemouth to become my highest-risers at the top of the table. I always thought they'd be able to do well this year; but at the moment, they're doing very, very well. Unfortunately, their final position probably depends more on whether those bigger clubs get their acts together than on anything they can do for themselves. But at the moment, I'm thinking that 'big club' revival might not happen, and Bournemouth might perhaps be able to cling on to a top four finish. They would be well worthy of it. I still give them a slight edge over Palace (although that's not how the table looks at the moment, after a string of disappointing/unlucky results) because I think their attacking threat is more diverse and consistent. Palace, though, may have the advantage in defence, and particularly with Henderson in goal, who's having an outstanding season. Adam Wharton is also starting to look very, very good as their central playmaker, and Yeremy Pino is proving a surprisingly capable replacement for Eze; it's only the patchy finishing of Mateta and Nketiah that's holding them back a little. Well, that and the burden of European football, which is leaving them visibly tired after each of their Conference League fixtures. (And you worry if Glasner's now coming out with open criticism of the ownership for a lack of investment in the squad last summer is an indication that he might soon be moving on.... If he departs the club mid-season, their prospects would suddenly be very much in doubt, I fear.)

Newcastle's poor start is threatening to stretch into a poor first half of the season. But I fancy that the return of Livramento and Hall from injury could be the catalyst for recovery. At least Woltemade has made an immediate impact for them. And they now finally have Wissa available to offer them some additional attacking options. If only Anthony Gordon could rediscover his best form, I think they could soon be challenging for the top six again. It would probably be a help if they could be eliminated from the Champions League as soon as possible next year.

I had major doubts about Liverpool's prospects right from the start of the season. I couldn't understand their transfer strategy over the summer - blowing huge sums of money on players for whom they seemed to have no obvious need: Wirtz, a playmaker who didn't suit their current style of play; Isak, a forward who didn't really suit their current style of play either, and seemed somewhat superfluous when they'd just bought the excellent Ekitike; and Kerkez and Frimpong, two defensively suspect attacking wing-backs who could only really be expected to prosper in something like a 3-4-3 formation. With Alisson out injured, Konate suffering a horrible dip in form, Salah now isolated out on the right flank and looking increasingly impotent, and even the great Van Dijk starting to show his age badly - the wheels have really fallen off for them now. It is such a spectacular reversal from the commanding form of last season that I'm now starting to doubt if Slot will be able to turn things around; or if the fans will trust him to be able to do so, even if he might. If the club don't start getting some good results again soon, I fear they might have to let the manager go early next year. It's very difficult to foresee where Liverpool's season will go from here: they've obviously got the quality to be able to get back into the top four, or at least the top six; but they way they're floundering at the moment, they could well slump even deeper into the bottom half of the table.

Brighton have been on a major uptick in recent weeks, with Welbeck enjoying an Indian Summer of a goal spree, and Minteh and Gomez on the flanks also being consistently dangerous. Verbruggen is looking very good in goal for them too. At the start of the season, I'd feared they'd be too inconsistent to climb into the top half, but I fancy their prospects a lot more at the moment. It's very difficult to choose between them and Sunderland (the most impressive and well-balanced promoted side we've seen in some years; although they'll surely suffer a bit of 'altitude sickness' - they're never a top four side, and will probably be lucky to hang on in or near the top ten) and Villa as the best of the rest in upper mid-table. Villa have a lot of good players, but are not playing consistently or convincingly (even when they put together a sequence of good results recently, I didn't feel they'd been playing all that well), and while the search for Watkins's missing lucky boots goes on, I don't have any great confidence about them being able to sustain their current position. Frankly, I don't quite understand what Emery's doing with them (lots of seemingly random rotations: sometimes he likes Buendia, sometimes not; sometimes he likes Maatsen, sometimes not; sometimes he likes Malen, sometimes not - it feels like the sort of desperate, unmotivated experimentation we see from Amorim rather than tactical finesse).

Spurs and Forest have been the biggest disappointments of the season so far. Forest were indeed very hard-hit by Evangelos Marinakis's foolish expulsion of Nuno Espiritu Santo at the start of the season, and the quirky, dubious choice of Ange Postecoglou ("Is it because I is Greek?") to replace him; that appointment did turn out to be an absolute disaster, but at least they rectified the error fairly promptly, and things seem to be picking up for them again under Sean Dyche. However, after such an horrendous start, and with talismanic striker Chris Wood having rather lost his way this season, they probably won't be able to drag themselves up any further than lower mid-table - where they can expect to be rubbing shoulders with the likes of Manchester United and Spurs. Thomas Frank just hasn't found his feet at his new club yet, and the injury roster certainly isn't helping; but there are worrying signs that he's finding himself out of his depth. The utterly abject performance against Arsenal the other week has tried fans' patience, and his job will be under threat if he can't start producing some wins soon. And I rather fear the turning-point of United's season was their surprise win over Chelsea in Gameweek 5. Amorim must have been on the brink of getting sacked at that point, and that one result might have saved him - which, as I said in the first prognostication, was not likely to be a good thing for the club; his rigidity of approach, insane tactical naivety at times, and the relentless, unmotivated rotations that allow the team no time to settle down with each other, are dooming United to another messy season floundering in the lower-half. Only the attacking form of Bryan Mbeumo is keeping them in mid-table at the moment; and they're about to lose him - and Amad Diallo and Noussair Mazraoui - to AFCON for up to a month, which is likely to be a massive setback for them.

Brentford, Fulham, and Everton are too inconsistent, and the first two too frail defensively, the last too limited in attacking threat, to get themselves out of the bottom third, although they shouldn't be in any danger of relegation. Curiously, Brentford and Everton and Fulham (and Leeds!) are the only teams whose ranking I have not adjusted in this second set or predictions.

As I said at the start of the year, I think Leeds are conspicuously the weakest side in the league this year, and absolutely assured of going down. I had initially had faith in the quality of Wolves's squad and in Vitor Pereira's leadership to turn around their wobbly start - but somehow things just kept getting worse and worse for them. Having thrown away points in all their early encounters with other lower-table sides, they're now facing quite a tough run of fixtures through December, and are thus unlikely to be able to initiate any sort of renaissance under Rob Edwards until next year. And they're surely too far adrift already to have any chance of survival. Avoiding the ignominy of finishing dead last, and setting a new record for the lowest-ever EPL points total, is about the most they can aim to salvage from this season now; I am still hopeful that they can achieve that. The other relegation spot looks likely to be contested between Burnley and West Ham. I'd like to see another promoted side stay up, but West Ham had the sense to get rid of the ineffectual Graham Potter fairly quickly, and their prospects are immediately looking rather better under Nuno. With Callum Wilson now coming back into scoring form, they could in fact shoot up towards mid-table. But I don't feel that their squad overall is really strong enough to deserve to rise above many other teams, and surviving-by-the-skin-of-their-teeth would be a pretty good outcome after the way they started the season. For now, though, I'm still going to have a sentimental bet on Burnley.

So,..... here's my revised set of predictions (with position changes from my original forecast shown in red):

I hope these hold up a bit better than my first attempt!!

They probably won't; football is such an unpredictable game. I'll return to this for a final review as we enter the run-in to the end of the season in late February.

[Erratum:  I noticed a couple of months later that in my first list, I'd put Everton up at 8th, after their very bright start with Ndiaye and Grealish; so, they'd actually had a massive drop of 7 places in my expectations for them by one-third of the way through the season (and would only recover in my estimation very slightly by mid-February).]

It's NEVER a binary

 

Well, almost never.

Any time you think a selection decision comes down to a straight EITHER/OR choice - you're almost certainly being naive, superficial, way oversimplifying things.

You're probably missing something important - and perhaps relatively obvious; but you've somehow developed a blind spot for it!

Even if you think you've narrowed down the final decision to a choice between two alternatives, starting from a larger pool of options, there's a danger that you've dismissed some of those other options too easily, without giving them full consideration. And you've very likely to have overlooked some possibilities altogether.

We see this most commonly with the captaincy pick: people very often ask on online forums, "Should I give the armband to x or y this week?" And it should never be that simple. Even over the past few years, when Salah and Haaland have been so dominant, and mostly so consistent, that they have offered a strong captaincy option in almost every gameweek,.... they've actually fairly seldom been the best one. If you have a decent squad, there should almost always be at least 4 or 5 possibilities for your captaincy, often more; don't narrow your focus down to the 'big names' too quickly!

The field is usually even broader with transfers: there are almost always several members of your squad you might consider swapping out, and several new players you might consider to replace any of them. By all means, winnow these options down to a more manageable number; but don't be in a mad rush to do so. Keep your mind as open as possible, for as long as possible.

[Now, at the start of this season, we did seem to be faced with one clear binary choice: Haaland and Salah were the only two super-premium players in the game this year, but priced way too high for us to reasonably afford both of them (at least, at the very start of the season, when budget is a bit tight - and we all thought we'd want Saka, Palmer, Cunha as well,... and maybe even Watkins or Gyokeres,... and perhaps Isak too, before long....). But, given their propensity to both start the season really hot, we probably did regard having one of them as essential; and we had to choose between them.

That was a very rare example of a selection decision being a genuine binary. But..... even there, perhaps there were other possibilities we should have given some more thought to: maybe we could have tried to do without either of them??  Maybe we should have done without Saka, Palmer etc. instead, and beggared the squad to squeeze in both of them?? I thought not; but I did give it careful consideration.]

Triple unhappiness!

 

Oh dear, the great Triple Captain play on Erling Haaland this weekend (Gameweek 13 of our 25/26 EPL/FPL season) really went BADLY.

But in times of tribulation like this, it is good to try to mainain a sense of perspective.

For one thing, an awful lot of people were in the same boat: the great majortiy of still active managers in the game were probably playing the chip in this gameweek. 

And things could have been so much worse. He might have felt an injury in the warm-up and not even started. He might have got injured, or just been subbed off early by Pep, before the 60-minute mark. (And we should feel especially grateful every time a favourite player escapes a serious injury in a game, not for the impact that might have on our FPL points hopes, but for the man himself - and for the fact that we have not been denied the pleasure of watching him play for the rest of the season, or a big chunk of it.) He might have been given a yellow card, or perhaps even a red one. (Not very likely with Haaland: his disciplinary record is very good. But you never know.... Weird shit happens sometimes!)

It is quite common for captain and Triple Captain picks in FPL to register only 1 point or 0 points in a game - or even, occasionally, negative points.

So, the Haaland TC play this weekend, while very, very disappointing, was not an utter disaster. Those happen too; and this wasn't one of them. Perspective.

It was not even a particularly unlikely - and thus should not have been a completely unexpected - outcome. Captain and Triple Captain picks are going to return a blank somewhere between 1-in-2 and 1-in-3, even at the best.

When Fate shits on you like this, all you can do.... is hope that you're going to get a 1-in-3 unusually good outcome next year!

How did the Free Hit work out this weekend??

I've seen various figures online suggesting that between 1 and 1.5 million FPL managers might have played their first Triple Captain chip on Erling Haaland in this Gameweek 13 just past (although I don't think FPL has released an official total yet; these are all probably just estimates; I'm rather surprised that the number isn't much higher). But a very significant number of people - probably some hundreds of thousands at the very least - opted to play their Free Hit chip instead.

Did that work out for them??

Well, of course, your mileage will vary....

But on the whole, I'd venture.... NO.

Many GW13 Free Hitters online are just comparing themselves to the disastrous Haaland Triple Captain play. Of course, anything was better than that.

But that's not how these things work. You have to compare like with like (Triple Captain option against Triple captain option, Free Hit against Free Hit): how did the GW13 Haaland Triple Captain play work out compared to other gameweeks in which you might have used (or could still use) the chip on him, or on another high-scoring player; and how well did the Free Hit work out this weekend - in terms of the points-lift it gave you over the team you had anyway - in comparison to other gameweeks in which you might play it?

Quite a few people who did well from their Free Hit this gameweek have posted scores up in the mid-60s and low 70s, which is pretty good for this (very low-scoring) week. But as I scan around my leagues, I don't find the upper reaches of this week's ranking dominated by Free Hitters. A lot of people got scores in the 70s with their regular team. (And a lot of people don't even bother to do this elementary calculation. If their Free Hit team returned a pretty respectable points total, they feel satisfied with that; and they don't go to the trouble of working out what their regular team would have got - much less factoring in the possible impact of one or two regular transfers to improve that regular team for this set of fixtures. If your Free Hit squad didn't actually give you any more points than your unchanged squad might have done, then it was a bust!)

In order to get good returns from the Free Hit (or Bench Boost) chip - at least in general terms, for the majority of people playing it in a particular gameweek, rather than for just a few execeptionally lucky managers - you need plenty of high-scoring players and plenty of good player returns and match results that were fairly readily predictable. 

And, unfortunately, this gameweek just didn't turn out like that: a lot of matches followed an unexpected course. Brentford eventually got an anticipated 'big win' against Burnley, but really had to struggle for it, and all the goals only came very late in the game; City nearly lost to Leeds, Bournemouth did lose to Sunderland, and Spurs and Palace both lost at home to less formidable opponents, while Villa and Liverpool were lucky to beat their bottom-of-the-table opponents at all, and didn't rack up the margin of victory expected. Even Newcastle weren't predicted to get a win away from home, let alone a big win, against the usually defensively strong Everton. And almost no-one managed to keep a clean sheet.

So, most teams didn't get the sort of results that were generally expected, and few players returned particularly good hauls. In fact, of the most fancied players - both among existing selections and among those transferred in on a Free Hit - almost no-one produced a good return this week; most of them blanked. Only a few members of the 'Team of the Week' have any significant ownership, and probably weren't any more popular in Free Hit selections than they are in existing squads (while the best of this week's forwards, Igor Thiago, was in a lot of squads already, without a Free Hit).

So, unfortunately, this turned out not to be a great week for the Free Hit - because it wasn't easy to anticipate who would bring in good points, not very many players did bring in really good points; and there wasn't any major difference in points returns between 'Free Hit players' and 'regular team players' in this frustrating gameweek with such exceedingly low average scores.

That does not mean it was a bad week in which to choose to play the Free Hit. The combination of fixtures did look promising for it. But the eccentric and unexpected game outcomes and the low points returns from most of the more fancied players meant that it ended up being a bad week to have played it in - for most people. (But it might still prove to be better than nothing; it might yet end up having been the least worst option in a bunch of gameweeks that will all disappoint in various ways!)

There were, however, (as there usually are!) a few player choices that worked out pretty well - if you didn't have them already, but brought them in on a Free Hit. It's the managers who lucked into these picks who enjoyed the 70+ points returns on their Free Hit play this week. 

Liverpool, Villa, and Brighton were the only teams to keep clean sheets (rather unexpectedly, and in the case of the first two, really rather luckily), so taking a keeper or defenders from any of those three teams worked out well. Aston Villa seemed to be a particularly popular choice among the Free Hitters; although Rogers and Malen didn't work out for them, while Martinez and Cash did.

Cody Gakpo and Phil Foden were also strangely popular Free Hit choices - despite having shown few indications of likely FPL points-scoring in recent games; Foden, in particular, often now being played in a slightly deeper role, had recorded a long string of blanks and often been fairly anonymous in City's games in the past couple of months. But they both came up with goals - goals their sides scarcely deserved on the balance of play, goals in added-on time. That's LUCK right there! There was no compelling rationale for including either of those two players in a Free Hit selection. Honestly, they looked obviously rather less tempting picks than teammates of theirs in the most impressive form recently - Doku, Cherki, Szoboszlai. Brentford's Dango Ouattara was also up there among the week's most successful Free Hit picks; but there was a stronger rationale for fancying him against a defensively frail team like Burnley, especially given Brentford's strong recent home form - although, again, Schade or Damsgaard might have seemed the more promising midfield options from that club (and many FPL managers will have had one of those three already).

So, people who'd gone for Villa (or Liverpool or Brighton) defensive assets and Foden and/or Gakpo and/or Ouattara with their Free Hit changes did pretty nicely for themselves with the chip in Gameweek 13. But they were a fairly small minority. And even they didn't do conspicuously any better than a large number of good non-Free Hitters.

On balance, a Free Hit play this weekend certainly wasn't the abject disaster that the Haaland Triple Captaincy was, but.... that's damning with faint praise. It really didn't work out at all well either.

Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 13

After a number of mostly quite drab gameweeks lately, this one was looking set to be a belter, with non-stop action in all of Saturday's encounters; though Sunday was most a bit of a comedown from that rush. It's also potentially an object lesson in not getting too excited about an apparently 'unbalanced' set of fixtures as a Free Hit (or Bench Boost) opportunity, as games often do not turn out at all as expected. City didn't keep a clean sheet against bottom-of-the-table Leeds, and were ultimately lucky to nick a late win; Brentford had a really tough time getting past stubborn Burnley, Bournemouth didn't manage their expected win over Sunderland (though no side should really be fancied to beat Sunderland at home at the moment!), Spurs lost at home to lowly Fulham (again, that shouldn't have been completely unexpected on recent form), Palace came up short at home against a not-that-impressive Manchester United, and Newcastle finally managed to win away from home - while putting 4 past the usually adamantine Everton defence, but not keeping a clean sheet themselves either. FPL managers might have been picking up some good points on attacking assets (except Haaland!!), but defences took a battering. - with only the often leaky Liverpool and Villa back-lines coming away with clean sheets this weekend.

Brentford were making heavy weather of their home game against bottom-of-the-table Burnley, failing to break down the visitors' resolute defence despite massive domination of possession for long spells,.... until there was an improbable flurry of goals in the last 10 minutes. It was nice to see Thiago quickly lay to rest any concerns that last week's awful penalty flub may have undermined his confidence, as he not only banged in a very confident penalty here, but also notched a fine finish from open play. There is, however, an element of doubt about that penalty award: Tuanzebe, although he was playing through the back of Ouattara, did seem to get a very clean touch on the ball through the striker's legs (and if this was a penalty, Van de Ven's very messy challenge in the late game should have been as well!); this seemed like yet another instance where VAR just didn't want to get involved, was just willing to accept whatever the referee's initial call had been.

Oh dear, yes, Erling Haaland - with that dread inevitability that makes Fantasy Premier League such an exasperating game - drew a 'blank' this weekend, for only the fourth time this season, thus breaking the hearts of nearly 1.25 million managers (I'd thought it would be more) who had punted their first Triple Captain chip on him. Surprises that might ultimately have had even greater impact in FPL though - well, apart from the Leeds second-half comeback, which left the home side rattled, and nearly threatened with a most unexpected defeat - were the unexplained omission of the recently excellent Rayan Cherki (a particularly perverse and inscrutable Pep decision, which must have infuriated his more than 600,000 owners, 100,000 of whom had only just brought him in this week!), and a sudden reappearance of Peak Phil Foden, who rediscovered his scoring boots after a long string of mostly fairly anonymous performances in the league, and only a solitary assist in the last 8 starts (to add insult to injury for many, he pretty much stole his first goal off Haaland's toe!). It is curious - almost uncanny - that Foden was one of the most popular picks for managers going with a Free Hit play this week; there was no obvious rationale for that in form or tactics (lately, he's been started in a deeper midfield position, which is why he hasn't often been threatening much in the final third), while Doku and Cherki have been far more productive options in the last few games; those folks who picked him must have access to a crystal ball (that actually works)!! 

Also, I think there might have been a case for Gvardiol to receive a red card for his ridiculous, nearly waist-high lunge on Nmecha: that must surely have been open to consideration, at least, as a 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity', and arguably perhaps also as 'endangering an opponent' (his defence there would be that it was more of a block than a tackle, attempting to throw his body between the opponent and the ball to bar his progress; but it was very ugly, he was very high and out-of-control, he did make contact, he did bring the player down....); yet neither the referee nor the VAR team seemed to spend any time considering that at all, because.... officials just don't give big decisions like that against one of the big clubs when they're playing at home.....  Gvardiol had already been fortunate to have his headed goal from a corner stand, to put his team 2-0 up, as Bernardo Silva had clearly backed into Perri on the goal-line, and then had a cheeky little tug at the inside of his elbow as the keeper pushed past him; it wasn't much, but it was enough, I think, to class as clear 'interference' with the keeper's movement, the sort of infraction we're often seeing given these days,.... except when it's against City at home.

Very much the proverbial 'game of two halves' this one, with Leeds doing well to weather a storm of early pressure (Perri making outstanding saves from Foden and Gonzalez, and a few other fierce efforts from around the edge of the box being well blocked by heroic defending), and then coming out after the interval with renewed energy and purpose - able to take advantage of City rather taking their foot off the gas for a while. It was ultimately a very, very fortunate escape for City, whose title hopes would have suffered a huge blow if they'd let any points slip away here, let alone all of them. I also fret rather that Haaland didn't just have a 'quiet' game, but actually looked heavy-legged and completely devoid of his usual spark throughout; I wonder if he's carrying an injury niggle of some sort (or maybe his baby just had a bad night and stopped him getting any sleep....?). The optimists will say that it was all part of Pep's gameplan that he should just be content to plod around in Zones 14 and 17, attracting two or three Leeds defenders to him all the time, so that other teammates could more readily find space. I hope it was that, but I don't find it a very convincing thesis.

Sunderland showed tremendous spirit to fight back and eventually claim a win, after falling behind to a pair of stunning goals within the opening 15 minutes (Tyler Adams's long-range lob was from the edge of the centre-circle, even further out than Richarlison's very similar goal last week: they'll probably make it a two-horse race for the latest 'Goal of the Month' prize!). Antoine Semenyo was showing no sign of his recent injury problem, comfortably lasting the full game; but his 6.5 million owners will be irked that he was twice denied an assist - when his superb low cross set up a close-range Evanilson effort that was somehow turned on to a post by Roefs in the opening minutes (although Adli followed up to claim the first goal), and in the second-half, when Evanilson was guilty of a very tight offside when unnecessarily prodding home Semenyo's effort on the goal-line (although his cross-shot had probably been off-target until taking a deflection through a defender's legs, so again it would probably only have been an assist); and then near the end he picked up a booking, apparently for arguing slightly too vociferously with one of the referee's many rather questionable decisions. This game really was on a knife-edge throughout (and, unfortunately, became rather ill-tempered in the closing minutes), with both keepers earning 'saves' points, and Marcus Tavernier coming agonisingly close to a third goal for Bournemouth with a fierce 20-yard half-volley that smashed against the underside of the bar. Best game of the weekend!

Lots of surprises in the Newcastle line-up at Everton: at least Pope's replacement in goal by Ramsdale was supposedly down to a late injury problem, but the selection of Miley over Tonali and Elanga over Murphy were headscratchers - presumably rest rotations after their midweek trip to Marseille. The changes worked out fairly well, though, as Newcastle, so often ineffectual on the road over the past few seasons, and especially straight after a European game, here were lively and on the front foot from the kick-off, and actually managed to look more like the home team; while Everton, perhaps suffering from the absence of Idrissa Gueye to give them some steel in the middle, looked oddly defensively vulnerable, especially at set-pieces. However, after going 4-0 up in under an hour, Newcastle relaxed a bit too much, and Everton came back at them quite strongly: Barry was unlucky to have a goal ruled out for an accidental touch on his arm as he brought the ball under control, and Carlos Alcaraz unleashed the hardest shot I've seen in years - a 20-yard-rocket that must have nearly broken the crossbar.

Spurs's woes at home continue, as they managed to concede 2 bad goals in the opening 6 minutes - and very nearly even more, in a rampant spell of early pressure from Fulham: new winger Samuel Chukwueze was unlucky to see his crisp curler glance off the outside of the far post. He was also unfortunate not to get a penalty, when a rash and untidy lunge from Van de Ven rather fortuitously dispossessed him, although it was completely through the back of him and also brought him down; I don't know how that didn't at least merit a 'second look', particularly as a similar, but much less egregious challenge in the Brentford game earlier had resulted in a penalty award. Spurs fans will lay most of the blame for another embarrassing result at the doorstep of goalkeeper Vicario, who not only committed a string of horrendous errors to give away the crucial second goal (shouldn't have come for the ball in the first place, was lucky to be able to claim it, should have put it into touch when he saw he had no support, rather than trying to hoof it upfield without even looking properly, hence giving it straight back to Fulham;... and, for me, although he probably would have had no chance of stopping Harry Wilson's perfect curler into the empty net, he should at least have sprinted to try to get back), but looked visibly rattled and error-prone thereafter, flapping at crosses and so on; great shot-stopper though he is, I've never felt that he looks secure enough in his all-around game to be a Premier League keeper. I suspect poor Thomas Frank is now the favourite to be the next manager to be sacked - unless he can turn results and performances around very quickly.

Well, I suppose it was inevitable that we'd have a bit of a comedown after the rollercoaster excitement of the Saturday games, and The Curse of the Early Kick-off may have been in play as well, but the noon game between Crystal Palace and Manchester United was stupendously dull. Even after United had nicked 2 quick goals out of nothing early in the second-half (an excellent snap half-volley on a very acute angle wide on the left of the box from Zirkzee, and Mason Mount apparently catching Henderson by surprise with a quick free-kick punched low through a gap in the wall), and the home side had to go chasing a result,.... things didn't really pick up very much. I thought Mateta's opening penalty in the first-half was a bit of a soft award: Yoro probably did make contact with his lower leg, twice; but both such light touches that they shouldn't really even have put the big forward off his stride, let alone brought him crashing down. I'm all in favour of punishing such exaggerated responses with a yellow card for 'simulation' - even if they have been prompted by some contact. I think this is also the first time we've seen a penalty have to be retaken under the new rule that a double-touch by the taker is a 'forgivable error' (I do not like this rule: it is absolutely avoidable, and it's the kick taker's responsibility to make sure that it doesn't happen; if he fails to do so, he deserves to have squandered his chance of converting the kick). Yoro was taken off after only 54 minutes, and didn't look at all happy about it; this looks like more poor man-management from Amorim. And Ismaila Sarr went off well before half-time, having apparently jarred his ankle (and/or knee?) in hurdling a challenge early in the game. So, owners of either of those players in FPL (not many!) would be especially unhappy with this turn of events. We also saw an egregious example of the frailty of the BPS, and the general unsatisfactoriness of scoring and stat-compiling in this game failing to take any account of qualitative factors, in that Bruno Fernandes was credited with 2 'assists' - one, a hopeful chip into the box for Zirkzee, in a position where he could not score (yet, miraculously, he somehow managed to), and the other simply rolling a free-kick a few feet sideways for Mason Mount to have a pop at driving the ball through a gap in the wall; neither of these actions in any way 'created' the goalscoring opportunity, so, in commonsense terms, they should not be considered 'assists'. Moreover, because so little else happened in this drab game, those two nominal 'assists' were sufficient to secure Bruno maximum bonus points as well: that is not just.

Ollie Watkins was anorther 'surprise' rest rotation (or perhaps the change was motivated more by form, since the striker has become a stranger to the goal this season); it's nice to see the recently very impressive Donyell Malen getting a try-out as a lone striker, but it remains uncertain for now whether he will secure a regular start from Emery. Agony for poor Wolves to find the net first, through a fine Strand Larsen volley, but have it ruled out - though undoubtedly correctly, as Jhon Arias, in an offisde position, had run directly in front of Emi Martinez as the shot was coming in. The visitors were actually well on top throughout the first half, with Martinez having to make excellent saves from another Strand Larsen shot and a thunderous Mosquera header. The Norwegian striker fluffed the best chance of the game early in the second-half, when he somehow failed to make contact with a perfect set-up at the far post from Bellegarde - although Pau Torres's last-ditch block/tackle attempt appeared to get nothing of the ball and maybe something of the man, so merits consideration as another possible missed penalty award. And Wolves could again feel rightly aggrieved that Villa's goal was allowed to stand, as possession had initially been won with the aid of Morgan Rogers inadvertently stamping on Joao Gomes's toe - an infraction that was crystal clear on the TV replays, and should have been easy for VAR to spot (yet somehow they didn't). However, Wolves were maybe a little lucky not to see Arias sent off when he jumped with both feet on to Kamara's instep; it may have been accidental, a bunny-hop intended to lift him clear of contact, but he misjudged it so badly that he ended up stomping directly on his opponent's foot: another 50/50 type of call that we very often see go against the perpetrator.

Nottingham Forest are another team who are suffering a hangover from their midweek European football. They looked seriously out of gas here, allowing visitors Brighton to completely overrun them for much of the game; only some resolute defending stopped it becoming a cricket-score. The home side's only decent chance - a swift counter-attack initiated by Sels and ending in a sharp shot from the edge of the box by Igor Jesus -  brought an outstanding save, possibly the weekend's best, from Verbruggen with an outstretched leg.

West Ham v Liverpool wasn't much better than the dismal lunchtime game: a little bit more energy, a slightly higher quality of football, but still almost nothing in the way of goal threat. The final scoreline flattered Liverpool heavily, as West Ham had actually enjoyed the bulk of the possession, with the first of the visitors' goals coming kind of out of nowhere, and the second only in injury time, after the Hammers had been reduced to 10 men. Isak, again an unexpected starter over the more in-form Ekitike, again had a pretty subdued game, but did manage to put away a half-chance when it fell to him, snapping off a quick low shot from the edge of the box that didn't have a lot of power in it, but somehow managed to slip through a dfender's legs and just eluded Areola's dive at the foot of the near-post. The major excitement of the game, though, was Lucas Paqueta's almost comically self-destructive sending-off for prolonged haranguing of the referee about his booking. The ref, I thought, actually showed undue restraint in the length of time it took him to produce the second yellow; the confrontation had dragged on so long that several other players, including some on the opposing side, had intervened to try to lead him away from the catastrophe he was bringing on himself and his team. Both cards were for dissent; I can't remember the last time we saw that happen! And he could have earned another for the sarcastic applause he gave the ref as he very slowly left the pitch; I wonder if the FA might take further action on this, as a particularly unnecessary and hostile show of disrespect to the official. And oh dear me, BPS is up to its old tricks again, bizarrely determining that Cody Gakpo was somehow worthy of the maximum extra points, although he contributed almost nothing to the game, apart from the late and irrelevant second goal.

The major FPL news of the day, however, was the 'shock' omission of Mo Salah from the starting line-up (his owners should count themselves lucky that he didn't get on from the bench either, so at least they have the chance of some points from an FPL auto-sub). Astonishingly, over 3 million managers in FPL still own him; some were even bringing him back in this week - especially if using the Free Hit - because they fancied his chances against West Ham. It will be interesting to see how quick and dramatic the sell-off now is. (I suspect, not that bad: a lot of the people that still own him are probably 'zombie accounts' that gave up playing the game early in the season; the rest might be mostly hardcore idolaters who will stick by him forever, no matter what.)  Given how badly he took being benched by Klopp towards the end of the 23/24 season, I wonder if this betokens that his career at Liverpool is now over, and the Saudis are expected to come in for him again in the January transfer window?

Another big selection surprise in the Chelsea v Arsenal game, with Saliba being a last-minute omission having apparently picked up a knock in training. This predictably produced the best match of the day, with some expansive and often end-to-end football, although ultimately both defences were on top and neither side managed to carve out any major openings. Arteta might be concerned that the home side did not appear seriously incommoded by the early sending-off of Caicedo, and in fact continued to have a majority of possession and to get the ball into the final third. The red card, I feel, was a bit of a 50/50: the challenge was high and badly mistimed, but not reckless or malicious, certainly not 'out of control'; it was unfortunate that he happened to catch Merino above the ankle, the contact was made harder by the fact that the Arsenal player was kicking that foot towards him (he had in fact only cleared the ball away a fraction of a second earlier, which makes the mistiming of the challenge more forgivable). While the sending-off didn't seem obviously unfair, a three-match ban for this tackle does seem disproportionate - not all straight-red fouls are bad enough to merit that punishment.

The FPL 'Team of the Week' is usually one of the strongest indicators of the fluctuating 'luck factor': and once again - as in just about every week so far this season - it's looking like it might be quite a bizarre collection: a goal for defender Kenny Tete (and De Cuyper and Tzimas of Brighton on Sunday) and a brace for Newcastle's Malick Thiaw make them rather unexpected inclusions; and none of the 5 midfielders in the line-up after Saturday would have been in very many FPL teams (and Lewis Miley wouldn't even have been expected to start!), though at least Woltemade and Thiago up front were more expected successes. Also, we saw that ulimate 'Black Swan Event': a Dominic Calvert-Lewin goal (amazingly, about 95,000 people do own him!) - sorry, Dom, but you know...  There's an uncommonly low Global Average score again this week too, just 35 points; yet the weekly high score is a massive 123 points, and the average high score (probably a better gauge of the disparity between what is reasonably possible and what many/most people seem to be actually getting) I see in my leagues is in the low 70s. I think the spread of scores, as represented by this gap between the 'majority score' reflected by the global average and what the most successful players of the week are getting could be the most reliable indicator of luck from week to week. I'm going to try to look into this and compile some figures.

Things are probably going to be heavily distorted this week also by the large number of FPL managers punting their Free Hit chip; although things probably didn't go all that well for most of them, with so many unexpected results and unexpected goalscorers this weekend. And for a very large proportion, also, Haaland's rare blank, when they had their Triple Captain chip riding on him, was a major slice of bad luck. On the other hand, a fair number of people made an impulsive decision at the last moment to switch their TC to someone like Igor Thiago (or Malick Thiaw?!), and are now probably wallowing in their smugness. It is, indeed, a funny old game. 

But at least there hasn't been all that much terrible refereeing this time; well, apart from a penalty dubiously awarded to Brentford, and dubiously not awarded to Fulham, and Villa's goal against Wolves that really should have been disallowed; and a bit of over-generosity to the benefit of Manchester City and Josko Gvardiol! However, an unusually large number of goals - and correspondingly few clean sheets - and some very unexpected goalscorers (a lot of defenders again!), some major selection upsets (no Salah, no Cherki, no Garnacho, no Saliba, no Watkins, no Pope,...), and blanks or very low returns for almost all of the most fancied players (Mbeumo, Semenyo, Saka, Doku, Neto, Minteh,...), and improbably high returns for Foden and Gakpo (who weren't even 100% to start this week, and really had no reason to be expected to produce anything on their recent form), I think this week gets up to another 8 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.

TOO SOON!!!

Christmas has become strangely popular in East Asia over the last few decades - especially in China; but really, everywhere across the region.

The seasonal decorations started going up in my sleepy little hometown last weekend (and they'll probably stay up till around March!). And I got Whammed! for the first time on Sunday afternoon last week in a local supermarket. Come on, people, we're not even out of November yet!  Cruel and unusual punishment indeed!

I see the official challenge doesn't actually start until tomorrow, so I suppose I'm still in with a chance of survival. But the omens are not good....

Early wake-up

It is, somehow, an Iron Law of the Universe that, if you live in Asia, you are never more than about 150 metres away from some sort of construction project.

There is an unfortunate corollary to this Law - that if it's 7 o'clock on a Sunday morning, you are probably within 50 metres of someone using an angle-grinder....

Dilemmas of the Week - Gameweeks 13/14 (25/26)

Amazingly, we seem to have been spared too many new injury concerns this week, so this ahould again be a pretty brief rundown!

However, since the gameweeks are packed so tightly together next week, in the beginning of the crazy December fixture logjam, I fear I won't have time to compile a separate roundup for Gameweek 14. (I'll try to add the most important news to this post after the weekend, if I can).

I'm trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 13 (and 14!) of the season?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Leandro Trossard had to come off wiith a knock in Wednesday night's game against Bayern, and might now be a doubt against Chelsea. Noni Maduke would presumably take his place on the left wing.

At Bournemouth, Ryan Christie has apparently been playing with discomfort in his knee for some while, and it now looks as if he's going to need a few weeks' rest.

Brentford's Fabio Carvalho apparently suffered an ACL injury in training ahead of last week's game, and will probably miss the rest of the season after having surgery. 

Seamus Coleman pulled a hamstring in Monday night's game at Old Trafford and is likely to be out for some weeks; although he hasn't been getting many minutes this season anyway.

Leeds midfielder Anton Stach had to go off with a head injury against Villa last week, and is likely to miss at least a game or two under 'concussion protocols'. Sean Longstaff is also set to be out for 4-6 weeks after picking up a serious calf injury in training this week, which threatens to leave Leeds light in the engine-room.

Hugo Ekitike appeared to suffer a problem with his back when being forced to come off after about an hour against PSV at Anfield the other night; he now seems doubtful for this weekend, at least. Alisson missed the midweek game against PSV with illness, but is expected to be OK for the West Ham game.

Kieran Trippier apparently has another hamstring problem, which is expected to keep him out for about a month.

Morgan Gibbs-White may be a doubt for the weekend, after missing Thursday night's game against Malmo with a lower-back problem. Murillo also seemed to be in discomfort with his troublesome thigh again in that game, so may also be a question-mark.

In probably the biggest injury news of the week, Matheus Cunha apparently suffered some kind of head injury in training which led to his late omission from Monday's game against Everton, and leaves him still doubtful now (although he hasn't yet found his form for United this season, so is not very high-owned; however, with Mbeumo and Amad Diallo both off to AFCON after this coming week, he might become a more popular choice soon).

Going into the midweek Gameweek (GW14):

William Saliba was a surprise omission against Chelsea on Sunday, having felt a muscle problem after training. No details yet, but it sounds like he might be out for a few weeks.

Georginio Rutter is hobbling after gettting a knock in the game against Forest on Sunday.

Ismaila Sarr jarred his ankle with a heavy landing, and had to come off in the first half against United; looks like a sprain that may keep him out for the rest of the week, at least.

Harry Wilson has been having some trouble with discomfort in his thigh, but Marco Silva seems fairly confident that it shouldn't affect his ability to play against City.

Dan James suffered a hamstring strain in the game against Ciy.

Nick Pope was a late withdrawal against Everton, apparently suffering a groin strain.

Morgan Gibbs-White is doubtful again, after being subbed off in the second-half against Brighton; not clear if he has suffered a new injury, or a flare-up of the lower-back problem that was troubling him last week.

Lucas Paqueta is serving a one-match ban for getting himself sent off for double-dissent against Liverpool at the weekend. Moises Caicedo and Lewis Cook are beginning three-match bans for 'violent conduct' dismissals. And Marcos Senesi and David Brooks have to miss a match after receiving their 5th booking of the season - which could leave Bournemouth significantly weakened for the visit of Everton. Idrissa Gueye serves the second instalment of his three-match ban (for slapping his own player!) in that game.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Idrissa Gana Gueye begins a 3-match 'violent conduct' ban (though to be served within one week, thanks to the fixture logjam!) after being sent off for striking a teammate at Old Trafford on Monday night! Despite David Moyes's attempts to downplay the incident, you wonder if he'll be able to reintegrate into the team that easily after something like that. (Remarkably, this is an issue for nearly 18,000 FPL managers!)

Cristian Romero also misses this gameweek after becoming the latest player to reach the 5-bookings threshold. Several others are close to a 'totting up' suspension.

And I really wouldn't trust anyone in the Manchester United team at the moment, not even Mbeumo and Fernandes, not even against a supposedly weak opponent, because I have no confidence in Ruben Amorim's tactical direction. They were absolutely abysmal in their failure to get anything from a 10-man Everton on Monday night. If they continue like that - and they will, because the main problem is Amorim's insane tactical rigidity - they could struggle against anyone. Spurs players are also looking very unappealing just at the moment.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Morgan Gibbs-White and Morgan Rogers look to be coming into fine form, although the teams around them are still far less convincing - which might restrict their FPL value. Donyell Malen looks even better, whenever he's given a chance; but Emery still seems not to like him as a regular starter for some reason (although, after his outstanding performance and near-hattrick in Thursday night's Europa League victory over Young Boys, it's surely going to be very difficult to start him on the bench again against Wolves).

Callum Wilson, who nabbed a brace of goals against Bournemouth last weekend, is looking fit and confident again; if West Ham's performances continue to pick up, he could become a tempting budget forward option. Danny Welbeck, too, continues rolling back the years with fine performances week after week! And Igor Thiago continues to look in fine form (though I worry slightly whether that awful penalty miss last week may put a bit of a dent in his confidence), and is set to be the week's most transferred-in player (though that, unfortunately, is almost always a curse) - but mainly because he's up against Burnley this Saturday.

Of course, all The Sheep are piling in for Ebere Eze (well, 300,000 so far; he might overtake Thiago as the week's most popular transfer) after his hattrick. I find that utterly daft. He surely won't keep the freer central playmaker role for long, now that Odegaard's ready to return; and even if he did, Trossard and Saka are far more regular goal threats. And I can't imagine any other opponent at The Emirates this season being as bad as Spurs were last Sunday! Great player, but not good value in FPL.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

Sheep Picks (18)

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are dangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

For Gameweek 13 of the 2025/2026 season, I'm afraid I have to nominate Eberechi Eze as my 'Sheep Pick' of the Week. 

There's an easy way to identify a classic 'Sheep Pick': just select the 'Transfers in (round)' metric on the FPL 'Stats' page and see who's at the top of the list. More often than not, they're a 'Sheep Pick'! At the moment Eze's neck-and-neck with Brentford forward Igor Thiago to be in first place this week; but there are good reasons for favouring Thiago - he's an in-form goalscorer facing a bottom-of-the-table side (really, everyone should have had him in their squads several weeks ago!). There are really no good reasons at all for picking Eze. It's just a classic case of that typical 'Sheep' phenomenon known as chasing last week's points. Yes, Eze played a blinder against Spurs last Sunday, and was FPL's top returner of the week with 20 points. But is there any reason to suppose that he's likely to do that again this week? Or ever again?? No, I'm afraid there is not.

I absolutely love Eze as a player, I've had him in my FPL squad several times over the last few years, and I hope to see him playing for England at the World Cup this summer. Nothing personal: I just don't think he makes any sense as an FPL pick. Here's why....

1)  His style of play. I've always been sceptical about how compatible Eze would prove to be with Mikel Arteta's footballing philosophy, and despite his extremely impressive start with the club, those doubts remain for me. I fear he's too much the maverick, too much the impulsive improviser to fit in well with his boss's generally ultra-cautious approach to the game, an approach that emphasises minimizing 'risk', building up patiently, maximizing 'control' at all costs, sticking to very detailed and disciplined team tactics. rather than going off-script on a whim....

2)  His place within the Arsenal team.  Eze's only been prospering in recent weeks because he's been able to play a freer, more central role and take on the mantle of the team's primary playmaker - during Martin Odegaard's extended injury absence. Odegaard should be fit to return any day now, though. Certainly there is an argument that Eze and Trossard have been playing so well recently that neither of them can be dropped; and if so, there would be no way back into the team for Odegaard at the moment. But Odegaard has been the creative lynchpin of the team for the last four years, he understands Arteta's tactical demands better, he's forged a close rapport with their other attacking players on the right-hand side, Saka and Timber (and White), and he's the club captain; I can't see any way he won't slot straight back into his normal position as soon as he's fully fit again. Eze, I think, is the type of player who really needs to be given space by his club to fully express himself: not just physical space, an optimum area of the pitch for him to operate in, but the psychological/emotional space of knowing that he's trusted with the responsibility of being the team's principal creator (as he always was at Palace, at least in the last two seasons since Zaha left). If Odegaard returns to his playmaker role, Eze will almost inevitably be shunted out on to the left flank, where he's likely to be more isolated and have much less impact on games (especially as Arsenal tend to heavily favour the right side for their attacks, through that nexus of right full-back plus Odegaard plus Saka plus central striker). He'll still have his moments, I'm sure; but he won't be as continuously influential as he has become during the last handful of games.

3)  His minutes-risk. If relegated to a regular starting position on the left-side of the attacking trident (and it's about the only spot on the pitch that isn't absolutely nailed down by one of Arteta's favourites), there are other players who can play there. Martinelli has more pace, is more used to holding the width on the touchline (as Arteta usually requires from players on that flank), and has looked in great scoring form recently; Madueke can also play on that wing, also has more pace, and is perhaps better at taking on and beating a defender than either Eze or Martinelli (and, as an expensive new arrival at the club, he might reasonably demand a decent number of minutes on the pitch; and he's never likely to get more than token bench appearances on the right, as long as Saka's fit); and Trossard is more adaptable, liking to break into the box to operate as an outright forward sometimes, as well as being able to play out on the wing or in the half-space - and he's absolutely on fire with his goalscoring at the moment. There is a serious possibility that, brilliantly though he has been playing, Eze might soon be sitting out a lot of games.

4)  The next fixture. They're away at Stamford Bridge on Sunday: a London derby, against one of the best defences in the league (some distance behind Arsenal's own, of course; but still, not too shabby) and one of their few title-chasing rivals, and a team who seem to be now coming back into a bit of form. It's unlikely to be an easy game. For the bookies, it looks like it's too close to call: Arsenal are only very narrow favourites, and a low-scoring draw actually seems to be the most fancied result. OK, after that, most of Arsenal's fixture-run through December looks fairly inviting. But why be in such a mad rush to bring him in this week?? Wait and see what happens with Odegaard.

5)  Competition within the club quota.  As I noted a few weeks back, Arsenal's defence is so vastly superior to everyone else's so far this season that there is now an almost overwhelming case for taking two of their defenders (but not three of them; and not their goalkeeper!). Meanwhile, Declan Rice looks likely to be at least the most consistent - and perhaps even the overall No. 1 - points producer among the cheaper midfielders, because of the number of assists he's likely to pick up from corners and free-kicks, as well as defensive points and clean-sheet points and the occasional goal. Saka, meanwhile, is pure class, and always dangerous: since his return from injury, he's been cracking off at least a few firm shots on target in every game, and is surely overdue to have one or two of them go in; he's also a likely provider of assists from corners and free-kicks, often hoovers up 'defensive contributions' too, and now he's on penalties for them as well; if he stays fit, he will almost certainly be Arsenal's top FPL points-scorer of the season. But Trossard (who I tipped as an under-appreciated gem just the other week) is actually the Arsenal player currently in the most outstanding form: he really looks like he could score in every game at the moment, and is absolutely overflowing with confidence, after registering attacking returns in 4  of his last 5 starts. Even if you were allowed 5 picks from Arsenal, Eze would barely be in the frame; when you're capped at 3,.... he should be nowhere near consideration.

6)  His optimum points potential.  Prior to last weekend's massive haul against Spurs, he'd only been averaging 6.5 points-per-game across a run of 6 straight starts. That's good, but not earth-shattering. And I think it's probably near - if not slightly above - the limit of what you'll be able to expect from him on a consistent basis, even over a peak run of returns; over a longer spell, he's not likely to get anything like that much... even if he were to retain the central playmaker role (which seems very unlikely from here on); playing off the left flank, his points prospects are likely to be significantly diminished.

7)  A one-off performance against Spurs. Arsenal and Eze were outstanding in the North London derby last week; but Spurs were catastrophically bad in every single aspect of their performance. It is hard to imagine any other opponent defending that poorly against Arsenal for the rest of the season; no-one else is going to be giving a player like Eze so many of the same sort of chances in one game. Arteta's 'masterplan' for this one was in fact stunningly simple: he just concentrated players on the right flank, regularly moving Merino and/or Zubimendi out wide along with Saka and Timber, to try to lure the Spurs dual pivots out of position. And it worked every single time: Betancur and Palhinha would both be drawn out of the centre to try to stifle the dangerous overload on the flank; but they weren't able to stop the Arsenal wide players from threading balls inside to Eze, who'd been left all on his own, just outside the middle of the penalty area. Being caught out by this 'cunning plan' once or twice would be forgivable; but Spurs somehow never adapted to it all game: they didn't realise that at least one of the pivots would always have to try to stay a bit more central, they didn't think it might be a good idea to maybe assign someone to man-mark Eze, it didn't even occur to the centre-backs that they were going to have to be more alert to rush out quickly to try to block shooting efforts from around the edge of the box. Again and again and again, Eze was invited to have a crack from 16 or 18 or 20 yards out; and he's very good from that distance - he was in hog-heaven! But this was a really freakish occurence, a truly stupendous piece of tactical naivety from the visiting side. Eze has played better games without coming close to scoring. Especially with Arsenal, with the mismatch in style and temperament between him and Arteta, I'm afraid he's just not the kind of player who's ever going to post Salah or Palmer goalscoring numbers.

There are ways I could prove to be 'wrong' on all of this. And I kind of hope I am. I'd love to see Eze enjoy a little hot streak - not least because it will bolster his chances of securing a start with England. He is an excellent player; and his confidence is through-the-roof after that hattrick.

Maybe Arteta will let him continue as the main creator, and leave his captain to stew on the bench. Maybe, even if nominally moved back out on to the left, he'll be able to come inside more, mostly play much narrower, maybe even rotate a little with Odegaard between the left-half, right-half, and central spaces - as the formation perhaps becomes less of a 4-3-3 and more of a 4-2-3-1. Maybe, maybe.... they might even be able to forge a new role for Eze, turning him into a kind of 'false 9': he might possibly get more goals like that, and it would allow both Odegaard and Trossard to continue playing in their best positions - but I fear it would be too radical a tactical departure for the conservative Arteta; and there's not much time to experiment with such an option before Gyokeres is expected back, anyway.

I think there's quite a good chance that, so long as he's still starting, Eze could pick up u few more goals over the coming month - while he's still riding the wave of elation from that massive game on Sunday. But I reckon that's all it would ever be: a short streak - that might look like a good return across 5 or 6 games, and would be enough to reassure 'The Sheep' that their selection had paid off; but Trossard or Saka or Rice might do even better, probably won't be much worse even in the short-term; and across any slightly longer run, say 7 or 8 games and upwards, one or all of those three will almost certainly do much better. And if Eze gets dropped or his points otherwise suddenly dry up and you want to ship him out again, he's cost you 2 transfers in a fairly short space of time; that undercuts his value to an FPL team as well (Saka or Rice look like they could be season-long holds).

Many FPL managers seem to find this hard to grasp, but.... even if Eze does return some good points in the next few weeks, that still doesn't necessarily make him a good pick. You have to consider a player's medium- and long-term prospects, not just the next few games; and you have to evaluate those prospects in the context of issues like club quota, budget, possible alternative uses of the transfers, etc.

But I don't think he will produce all that well, unfortunately: certainly not at anything like the rate he just managed on Sunday!