Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 14

I always think of December as 'Random Month' - mounting exhaustion, dreadful weather, and a slew of unpredictable 'rest rotations' lead to some yo-yo-ing form and a lot of unexpected results - particularly in a set of midweek fixtures like this. Sure enough, here we've seen surprise wins for Leeds and Everton, and ridiculous ding-dong matches at Fulham, Brighton, and Newcastle!

Bournemouth will feel a little unlucky that they couldn't make their superiority count in a fairly dour game against Everton. Semenyo had a strong first-half shot well-parried by Pickford, and just before the break Kroupi appeared to have put the home side ahead with a slick run to the near-post, but was caught just offside by Adli's unnecessary touch on Kluivert's cross as it came through to him. It was left to Jack Grealish (of all people - he hadn't registered an attacking return, or, really, come closing to doing so, in the last 6 games!), to break the deadlock on a quick break through the middle; although he was a bit lucky to be credited with the goal, as his shot might not have been on target, and surely wouldn't have beaten Petrovic without an enormous deflection off the shin of Diakite.

At Fulham on Tuesday, Haaland looked much sharper than he had at the weekend against Leeds; but still things seemed to be not quite clicking for him at first, as he crashed an early left-foot shot against the foot of the post. But it didn't take him long to make amends, as he lashed home a Doku cross from the penalty spot. He later added a couple of assists as well (the first a nicely weighted through-ball to Reijnders, but the second merely fortuitous, as he miscontrolled a cross which then fell to Foden at the far post), to give him his second-best haul of the season so far (salt in the wounds of all those FPL managers who'd been so sorely disappointed by their Triple Captaincy bet on him on Saturday), and might indeed have had more, as he hit the woodwork again in the second-half, with a thunderous header. But having been 3-0 up in the game just before half-time, and 5-1 ahead inside 55 minutes, Pep will surely be furious with his team that they allowed the home side to claw their way back into the contest - wih stunning strikes from Iwobi and Chukwueze (twice!) - to set up a very nervous end to the game. Indeed, Fulham very nearly pulled off a record-setting comeback, with a Josh King effort in added-on time having to be lashed off by the line by a back-pedalling Gvardiol. One of the games of the season - and one that somehow furnished its own mini 'Goal of the Month' competition!

At Newcastle, Van de Ven, Richarlison, and Gordon were the rest rotations de jour. The home side were completely on top at first, with Joelinton cracking a low cross-shot against the inside of the far post. But a little later, Spurs enjoyed a little spell of pressure, and Bergvall almost nicked the lead with an impish back-heeled volley from Kudus's cross. Newcastle looked even more dominant in the second half, and will be baffled as to how they didn't manage to score more than just Guimaraes's goal - and how they were later punished with a late Spurs fightback, where two late goals from Remero, a brave stooping header at the near-post then a shinner of a bicycle-kick (that Ramsdale probably should have been able to keep out), stole two of the points from them - twice in quick succession. Newcastle had quickly regained the lead from a Gordon penalty (he'd only just come on as a substitute), but couldn't hang on to it.

Arteta didn't endear himself to the FPL community by resting the massively popular Timber and Saka here (although Timber got on at half-time, to replace Mosquera in central defence, and Saka played the last half-hour or so), and Saliba still wasn't fit to play. Also, you have to worry that the gaffer's continuing to start Merino in preference to the fit-again Gyokeres must be dampening the Swede's confidence. White and Madueke were so good here that you wonder if they might have staked a claim to a more regular start: Madueke could operate also on the left wing (displacing Eze?), but Timber would have to give way for White, who was outstanding here (for once, his BPS rating was in accord with the 'Man of the Match' award - that doesn't happen nearly often enough!). Saka's cameo was long enough to nick a late goal in added-on time; and he should really have had 2, since he'd misshit a sitter a few minutes earlier. Brentford never really got in the game here, though Arsenal were well below their best - mostly huffing and puffing to little avail, as they had against 10-man Chelsea at the weekend.

In-form Danny Welbeck was rested for the visit of Villa, and that may have cost Brighton dearly. Marco Bizot, rather bizarrely given a start in goal over Emi Martinez, immediately looked likely to be a costly decision as well, as he flapped ineffectually at an early corner to allow Van Hecke to put Brighton ahead with a free header (although Villa had a point that a corner shouldn't have been awarded, since the ball had clearly gone out off a Brighton player). Like Wirtz at Anfield, Hinshelwood was unfortunate to be denied a goal after his fine break down the left put the home side 2-0 mup; but in this case, his shot had looked well wide of the far post before Pau Torres unluckily got a toe on it to divert it past his keeper. In a bizarre ding-dong of a match, though, Villa rallied strongly, and got back in the game with a brace of goals from Ollie Watkins just before the break; the second, in the dying seconds of added-on time, rounded off a bizarre sequence of play where Konsa was convinced he'd scored from a corner, but the ref said the goalline technology hadn't indicated the ball was fully over the line, Brighton immediately broke down the other end on a quick counter, but Gruda wasted the chance, and then Pau Torres pinged a long ball over the middle to Watkins to launch a counter-counter - and the big forward did well to resist three Brighton defenders closing in around him before getting off his low shot past Verbruggen. Onana put the visitors in front by heading home a corner on the hour, and then substitute Malen (how is he not starting??) stabbed home a fourth in a goalmouh scramble. But this topsy-turvy game still wasn't done, as Van Hecke (again?!) fired in a cracker from the edge of the box in the 83rd minute to give Villa an anxious end to the game - and Bizot was able to redeem himself with a point-blank save from Welbeck's header (he'd come on as a sub for the last 20-odd minutes). For me, this was yet another game where Villa didn't really seem to have deserved the win, but things somehow broke for them at the right time

Burnley v Palace was a close-fought encounter, with the home side defending resolutely, and creating some attacking danger: Henderson needed to make a couple of smart saves, and they nearly nicked an equaliser in added-on time at the end when Henderson missed a cross under pressure from Broja, and the ball fortuitously looped off the Albanian's back towards the goal, but was cleared from the goalmouth by Chris Richards. Another goal from Munoz, emphatically converting Guehi's great early cross from the left, made the difference.

With Caicedo suspended, Maresca probably couldn't afford the luxury of resting Reece James (and Garnacho, and Estevao, and - still - Palmer), but he did anyway, and thus we saw another downward swing of the Chelsea yo-yo. Although the home side managed to stay on top in most of the possession stats, Leeds completely dominated on chances created, and might well have gone even further ahead in the first-half. However, Chelsea might feel a little aggieved that they didn't get a penalty when Struijk's clumsy slide tripped Delap just inside the box; VAR didn't even seem to consider this as a possible missed call by the refere. A goal from Neto early in the second-half briefly gave Chelsea some momentum again, although they were somewhat fortunate not to concede a third goal almost immediately from Nmecha; this time it was Leeds who might have felt rather hard done-by, as the goalscorer was penalised for having been briefly offside much earlier in the move - how many touches of the ball and repositionings of the defensive line do there have to be before we're considered to be in 'a new phase of play'?? When Leeds eventually nicked a third, after a horrendous mix-up between Tosin and Sanchez, it seemed well deserved. Palmer got on for the last half-hour, but wasn't able to make much impression for his struggling side: he had one good scoring chance, but his first-time shot went the wrong side of the near-post.

Liverpool v Sunderland was a fairly drab affair, with Trai Hume's fierce 25-yard drive needing to be tipped on to the crossbar by Alisson the only really good chance in the first-half (though Wirtz, starting to look livelier in the last few games, had earlier come close to threading the ball through Roef's legs to claim his first league goal). Salah, again omitted at the start, was introduced for the second-half, but had little impact. Sunderland in fact looked livelier and more dangerous after the break at first, and deservedly took the lead with Talbi's long-range effort - though it probably wouldn't have troubled Alisson without a substantial deflection off Van Dijk's bum. Witz did in fact get the home side back on terms fairly quickly, with a neat low shot after a weaving run - but it was rather harshly credited as an own-goal after deflecting off Mukiele's shins (harsh on both attacker and defender; I don't think you could clearly determine that the initial shot was off-target....). Liverpool then went hunting for a winner in the closing minutes, but nearly got caught on the counter by Isidor, who eventually managed to round Alisson only to be thwarted by a goal-line block by Chiesa, who'd made a heroic recovery run to get back and cover . A fine draw for Sunderland, to keep them above Liverpool in the table. But things just keep getting worse for Arne Slot: there now seems little rationale for starting either Salah or Isak, other than desperation.

Morgan Gibbs-White, who had been a doubt beforehand with an ongoing back problem, was able to start at Wolves, which no doubt helped the visitors to assert their superioriy, Igor Jesus was denied his debut goal for Forest (well, made to wait a little longer for it...) by yet another of these 'interfering with the keeper' offside decisions against Dan Ndoye: fair enough on the rules as they stand, but implementation seems inconsistent at the moment, and it's always a bit hard on the goalscorer. Neco Williams, having won a free-kick in a good position by drawing a double-foul just outside the box, decided to take it himself and brought a very good save out of Sam Johnstone at the foot of his far post. Forest's class began to tell, and they increasingly dominated through the second-half, although it wasn't until the 72nd minute that Jesus's goal finally broke the deadlock.

United fans will be peeved they could take all 3 points off struggling West Ham, but for all their dominance of possession, they didn't really produce many clearcut chances. An improvised effort from Zirkzee, again filling in as a centre-forward for the injured Sesko, guided towards goal with his thigh, was headed off the line by Wan-Bissaka, and a follow-up volley from Bruno Fernandes a few moments later grazed the outside of the post; but that was as close as they got, until Diogo Dalot, of all people, fired home from around the penalty spot on the hour mark. Amorim will no doubt be exasperated that his side couldn't defend a corner properly in the closing minutes, Mazraoui heading clear off the line but steering the ball straight to Magassa who graretfully fired it straight back in. The only mild moment of controversy in a fairly dull game appears to have been a muted appeal for a penalty for Bryan Mbeumo in the second-half: Todibo was asking for trouble for dangling a leg out in the United forward's path, but Mbeumo appeared to have jumped over the obstructing limb without making sure that he made some contact with it - and probably should have been booked for 'simulation'.

The FPL 'Team of the Week' isn't looking quite so crazy as it usually has so far this season; although only Haaland (and perhaps Foden) and the Palace defence are likely to have been in many people's line-ups. At least there doesn't seem to have been any terrible refereeing in this batch of games: although Brighton got their first goal from a corner that shouldn't have been given, and Chelsea were mysteriously denied a penalty (yet again: they really have been conspicuously abused on these decisions since the end of the 23/24 season!!); and there were also a number of dubiously attributed - non-attributed - goals that only went in with the aid of big deflections from defenders (Grealish's looked particularly questionable). Ultimaely, though, there don't seem to have been too many of the usual elements of 'LUCK' in this Gameweek - apart from the multiple rest rotations, the occasionally topsy-turvy form, and the large number of goals and unexpected results. I think all of that probably makes it just about a 6 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.