The Friday evening kick-off between Leeds and West Ham revealed rather cruelly that Nuno has still not been able to fix the Hammers' numerous defensive shortcomings: at set-pieces, their defence is pretty much non-existent. From the brief highlights I've been able to find, it looks as though Leeds completely dominated the game, but lacked the quality to fashion many really good chances. Yet another goal for a defender - Joe Rodon, one of the most popular budget picks with almost 6% ownership - gets us off with a solid kick to the 'Luck-o-Meter' needle.... although at least there doesn't seem to have been anything amiss with the refereeing at Elland Road this time.
Sunderland switched to a back-three to great effect away at Stamford Bridge, comfortably smothering, out-competing a very unimaginative Chelsea. Even after they conceded an early goal - Garnacho somehow slotting the ball through Roefs's legs on a breakaway after just 3 minutes - they retained their composure, and despite limited possession, generally looked on top in the game and created almost all of the best chances; they were well worth the win claimed with yet another last-gasp goal. Although Chelsea haven't looked terribly convincing recently, this must count as a bit of an 'upset' result: Sunderland - incredibly - moved up to 2nd place, at least for a while with this win; Chelsea, with that one goal given up in the final minutes, slumped from 4th to 7th, and are in grave danger of tumbling out of the Top 10 after Sunday's games. And some will feel peeved (well, only 42,000, apparently!) that goalscorer Garnacho was withdrawn after only 56 minutes. (Maresca appears to want to give minutes to both Garnacho and Estevao; it's unfortunate that both of them look a bit of a liability defensively, and that rotating them like this requires Neto to switch flanks mid-game. Once Palmer's back, I imagine he will be mostly playing off the right side, and both these youngsters will get very limited game-time.)
Newcastle looked comfortably the better side at home against Fulham, but the visitors battled valiantly and were able to make the result closer than it perhaps should have been. Woltemade and Murphy both crashed efforts against a post in the first-half; if either of those had gone in, the game would probably have gone a lot more smoothly for them. Newcastle needed a goal in the final seconds of regulation time from Bruno Guimaraes to clinch the win - although they will feel they earned it with their determined pressure during the last 20 minutes or so.
Last week's late-goal hero Harry Maguire had apparently picked up an injury during the week in ttraining; but Amorim's fetish for varying something every week is evidently not satisfied by forced changes, so he also dropped Mason Mount, who'd been absolutely outstanding in his last two outings. Confusing the opposition with his line-ups seems to be the only 'tactical weapon' the floundering Portuguese coach has left to deploy. Brighton started very brightly, and for the first quarter or so of their game at Old Trafford they really looked more like the home side - having the lion's share of the possession, and looking more controlled and purposeful with it. They were very lucky to avoid conceding a penalty when De Cuyper stretched out his leg backwards to block Diallo and clearly clipped his foot (VAR unfathomably decided that it was OK because he'd got some sort of touch on the ball; I've seen several views of the incident, and am still utterly baffled by that verdict); but on the balance of play, they really didn't deserve to be going into half-time 2 goals down. Cunha had finally broken his goal-drought with a sweet finish (although he's still invariably having pops from well ouside the box, rather than trying to push further forward, or looking to play a teammate in, at least this time he managed to convince Verbruggen and his defenders that he was going to shoot straight ahead - drawing them to concentrate on the right half of their goal - and then switched his finish to a delicate curler just inside the left post), rather against the run-of-play; and then late in the half, Casemiro, of all people, put them 2 ahead with a scuffed shot that was heading well outside the post - until it deflected off a defender's bum, completely wrong-footing Verbruggen. (And that has somehow been credited to Casemiro, rather than going down as an own-goal - WTF??). Referee Anthony Taylor, and his VAR team, certainly weren't on Brighton's side, allowing Mbeumo's third goal to stand, even though Luke Shaw had plainly fouled Ayari - twice - at the start of the move. And then they somehow decided that Dorgu tripping Minteh was not a 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity' even though he was the last man (the rationale was apparently that the ball may have been running away from Minteh; but Minteh is very quick, and if he'd been allowed to continue his run into the penalty he might have caught up to the ball or at least drawn a foul from the outrushing keeper; and Dorgu presumably wouldn't have committed the foul if he didn't think his opponent had a clear goalscoring opportunity.....). There was more mayhem at the end of the game too, with 7 minutes of added-on time being indicated and more like 10 being played, during which both sides managed to pick up a further goal. (And Danny Welbeck, though he does have a good scoring record against his former club,.... does not have any kind of record for scoring from free-kicks!) This one game, I think, was probably worth at least 4 of my 'luck' points: a completely chaotic and crazy ride!
The Saturday evening game at Brentford proved to be the day's most entertaining. Brentford were all over their illustrious visitors in the first half, moving ahead with Ouattara hooking in a volley from a long-throw after only a minute or so, and then extending the lead with a Schade breakaway which ruthlessly exposed the lack of pace in Liverpool's central defensive pair (Van Dijk, I fear, is aging out very quickly this season: he may still have some of that daunting physical 'aura' - but he just can't cover the ground any more). And indeed, they continued to be dangerous throughout the game, and Marmardashvili had to make a few outstanding saves to keep his side even vaguely in touch. Brentford were perhaps slightly fortunate to escape a penalty against Collins when he appeared to trip Gakpo: it was a very slight contact, but it was definitely there - and we usually see those given these days (the occasional assertiveness of VAR in refusing to recommend any review of incidents like this is mystifyingly inconsistent). However, they can reasonably feel a bit miffed that the referee added further extra minutes, beyond the advertised three, for no obvious reason, at the end of the first-half - which provided the opportunity for Kerkez to get Liverpool back in the game with his last-gasp goal (yet another goal from a defender; and from a defender who's been having a wretched season so far - more 'luck' points there!!). Liverpool might feel slightly aggrieved that Brentford were able to reassert control in the game with a penalty; but they've got no case - Van Dijk definitely caught Ouattara's boot with a swish at the ball, and the contact was, as VAR correctly intervened to decide, right over the line. The referee (changed in the second-half: 4th official Tim Robinson had stepped in, because Simon Hooper was feeling a stiff hamstring) was otherwise doing everything he could to help Liverpool: there was again an enormous - inexplicable - amount of added-on time at the end of the half, and a pretty outrageous decision to penalise Kelleher under the new 'not getting rid of the ball quickly enough' rule (it's a controversial tweak that hasn't been very strictly applied so far; and Kelleher had not massively exceeded the nominal 8-second allowance anyway), to give Liverpool a chance to apply some late pressure from a corner - luckily, nothing came of that. A possible revitalization of prospects for the thus-far disappointing Kerkez and Salah with their fine goals perhaps doesn't really count as 'luck' (although, given recent form, they were among the more unlikely goalscorers for this game), but it may create renewed FPL interest in them from here on. The major FPL weirdness of the game - not necessarily 'unjust', just something that never ever happens - was that Dominik Szoboszlai earned the maximum bonus points, despite there being 5 different goalscorers in the game, 4 other providers of assists, and strong displays from both goalkeepers; the Hungarian star did indeed have a fine game, and was credited with an absolutely enormous number of 'defensive contributions' (hough that doesn't usually move the BPS needle much, if at all), but it is very, very odd that BPS rewarded him this week (somewhat makes up for a few earlier performances where he was very clearly the 'Man of the Match' but got absolutely no BPS recognition!).
Arsenal v Palace was as tight and scrappy as might have been expected from two of the league's most resilient defences, and it was perhaps a little bit of a surprise that this one didn't remain goalless. Yet again, it was a set-piece that made the difference for Arsenal, with Eze responding quickest to a second ball and rocketing home a volley from the edge of the box. In the first-half, the visitors had actually made the livelier start and created a few moments of danger. The big surprise for FPL was that Gabriel, 'flagged' as a big injury doubt prior to the game, was able to start after all, and produced another dominating performance, narrowly missing out on extra 'defensive contribution' points, coming close to a goal of his own with a thunderous header against the crossbar, and claiming the maximum bonus points for the game; many FPL managers had been prompted to leave him on the bench this time, because of the injury uncertainty (although there would have been a case for resting him anyway, as Palace are the most formdiable opponents Arsenal have yet faced, and thus another clean sheet this week was probably much less than a 50% probability). More points-attribution weirdness here, with Declan Rice somehow being awarded the assist for the goal, even though another player headed his floated delivery back towards Eze on the edge of the area - what gives??
The Villa revival continues, as they cruised to a comfortable home win against City. Although one might fancy it's more a case of the City 'wobble' continuing, getting even worse (perhaps their horrendous 'Tron' change strip wasn't helping their cause!); they didn't really look any better than outside contenders for the Top Four with Rodri anchoring their midfield; without him, they're starting to look like mid-table non-entities. Even the great Erling Haaland had a 'quiet' game this time: not being able to find a decisive finish to get past Martinez on his lone breakaway in the first-half, and having his apparent late equaliser denied for an offside against Marmoush, who'd darted in behind to supply the square ball across the six-yard box. Villa were well-organised, but still lacked creative fluency, and needed a goal-out-of-nothing from Matty Cash to put them in front.
More weirdness at Bournemouth too, with Marcus Tavernier scoring direct from a corner (a true freak event that usually only occurs in the Premier League once every season or two), and then teenager Eli Kroupi hitting a banger from nearly 24 yards out. Bournemouth were well worth their comfortable win against a still floundering Forest - but the manner of the goals was unusual. There were two elements of controversy in the Tavernier goal too; Tyler Adams had given Matz Sels a cheeky little shove as the ball came in (it wasn't much of a contact, but it may have slightly unbalanced or distracted the keeper at a crucial moment - and they usually get a lot of protection from the officials); but more importantly, the corner should not have been awarded in the first place, as Neco Williams's block ricocheted back against Tavernier's toe before going out (it would be nice if the VAR process was slick enough to give near-instant overturns on this sort of wrong call; unfortunately, at the moment it clearly isn't). It may also be a source of some FPL concern that Antoine Semenyo's 'hot streak' appears to be cooling somewhat, as other teammates - Tavernier, Kluivert, Scott, Brooks, Kroupi - are starting to shine more around him.
Poor Wolves are left wondering how on earth they lost at home to Burnley (a second defeat in a 'relegation six-pointer' already this season, having also been beaten at home by Leeds at the end of last month). They showed great spirit to get back on terms by half-time, after conceding two early goals through some dreadful defending; and in the second-half, they were well on top, but just couldn't find the opening that would put them ahead - though they went very, very close with a superb free-kick from Arias crashing against the crossbar, and a stinging volley from the always dangerous Bellegarde being well beaten away by Dubravka. Even at the death, they nearly changed the result - as, seconds after substitute Foster had nicked a third goal in added-on time, Santiago Bueno was denied at the other end by a superhuman save from Dubravka (we've seen many exceptional saves already this season; but really, that one might be a 'Save of the Season' contender). Fate just does not love Wolves this year. More FPL surprise here, in that two teams who've struggled for goals would not have been expected to produce such a high-scoring encounter, Zian Flemming, who bagged Burnley's first two, isn't even their preferred starter up-front (only deputising for Foster, who's feeling his way back after suffering a knock on international duty a couple of weeks back), and although Hartman is a handy attacking full-back, claiming 2 assists in the same game is a freakish rarity for anyone. I still think Wolves have too many good players to get relegated, but.... they're so deep in the mire now that they'll probably still be digging their way out next May; and they might not manage it, with the promoted sides looking so much stronger this season.
A rare sloppy defensive display from Everton cost their unbeaten record at their new stadium in Sunday's late game, one which threw up a fair amount of surprise and controversy. Jake O'Brien appeared to have grabbed a quick equaliser for the home side, heading in a near-post corner; but after a VAR intervention, it was ruled out for a supposed 'impeding the goalkeeper' offence. This looked like one of the most unjust decisions of the weekend: the pair of Everton players had merely placed themselves either side of Vicario, to restrict his movement; they weren't leaning on him, or even making contact at all. And the Spurs keeper is notoriously feeble about asserting himself in these situations where opposing players try to crowd him in the six-yard box: if an opponent is standing in your way, and you can't run through or around him - that's your fault, goalie, not his. However, the threshold for 'obstruction/distraction' is lower when the players are offside - as they were, after O'Brien had headed the corner goalwards; although that then becomes a very fine call as to when the relevant offence is deemed to have occurred (for me, Vcario was being 'obstructed', but not illegally so, when the corner was taken; he had forced his way past the Everton players by the time the header was directed towards him). So, although the decision feels harsh, it my have been technically correct (even David Moyes, who will usually argue any case, no matter how slim, for his side, was ultimately prepared to accept this ruling). Van de Ven, meanwhile, claimed a brace of headed goals from first-half corner-kicks, one from each side, one in the opening minutes and one in added-on time - yet another rather freakish event in the weekend (and he probably wouldn't even have been the main target for such set-pieces if Cristian Romero hadn't been out injured this week). Kudus was surely robbed of the assist for the first of these: did someone else get a flicked header on? was it decisive?? I don't think so! Spurs took their foot off the gas in the second-half, allowing Everton to try to find their way back: Ndiaye hooked an effort inches wide just minutes after the restart, and then Vicario had to pull off a fine reaction save from Beto's bicycle-kick. But their lack of incisiveness in front of goal again cost them dear, and ultimately Spurs were able to nick a third with a late break.
With a massive haul for a goalscoring defender in the opening game, we were already registering a point or two on the scale on Friday. Then were was a truly horrendous game at Old Trafford, with a penalty against De Cuyper and a sending-off for Dorgu inexplicably missed by the officials, a dubiously allowed goal for Mbeumo, and a mystifyingly misattributed one for Casemiro (should clearly have been an own-goal against poor Ayari). Another possibly missed penalty against Nathan Collins, and a whole raft of unexpected results, unexpected goalscorers, and unexpectedly high-scoring games on Saturday had this Gameweek well on course to become one of the weirdest of the season so far. And there was more strangeness on Sunday, with Tavernier's goal direct from a corner, a couple of worldies out-of-nothing from Cash and Kroupi, a couple of misattributed assists, and numerous efforts smashing the woodwork, going only just wide, or bringing out top-class stops from keepers. And yet again most of the goals were claimed by defenders, with almost nothing coming from most of the forwards and attacking midfielders, and almost all of the most fancied players in FPL - Haaland, Woltemade, Gyokeres, Mateta, Joao Pedro, Gakpo, Ndiaye, Grealish, Enzo Fernandez, Caicedo, Ismaila Sarr - producing 'blanks'. I feel the FPL 'Team of the Week' is one of the strongest indicators of the fluctuating 'luck factor': and this time we've got 4 double-digit hauls from defenders (all of them owned by only fairly small minorities), Emi Martinez the most successful keeper, Burnley's Zian Flemming the only forward to earn inclusion, and almost zero-owned Casemiro, Tavernier, and Aaronson making it into the midfield. WTF??? That alone, even without all the unusual game events and a few very dodgy refereeing calls, makes it an 8 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter' this week.
