Fireworks and baked potatoes....

It is one of the peculiar perversities of the English national character that we choose to 'celebrate' a terrorist who tried to blow up the King and the government (um.... and to overlook the unfortunate fact that the origins of this dark festival were rooted in anti-Catholic paranoia....), but so it is. 

For people who grew up in England, November 5th - Guy Fawkes Day - is probably second only to Christmas in the emotional resonances it conjures from childhood. It is the only day of the year on which we let off fireworks, one of the few in which we may have a barbecue,... and probably the only occasion on which we'll have large outdoor parties at night and build BIG bonfires. The fact that it happens just as the days are getting short and the nights are getting chill, as autumn starts to transition into winter, adds to the special mystique of the event. I haven't actually been to a Bonfire Party for years, but the recollection of them still brings on a swoon of nostalgia.

I think I will try to buy myself some nice big potatoes for baking today, and cook up a pot of chilli con carne to pour over them. I might even brew up some mulled wine...

It is hard to celebrate the traditional holidays of home on the opposite side of globe. But these occasions are mostly about the emotions, the memories - a few little prompts like the smell of baking potatoes are all that's needed to bring on the feeling...

And if there is a Fantasy Football tie-in here, it's probably this: I do like to see myself as a constructive anarchist, an irreverent upsetter of apple-carts, a swashbuckling 'freedom fighter' - striving to blow up the corrupt edifice of FPL fetishism and superstition. Yes, I can find a metaphor anywhere!

Cruel Fate!

As I mentioned yesterday, it's been an exceptionally low-scoring season so far - with Gameweek 10 just past being one of the only ones so far to produce a decent 'Global Average' (remarkably, 4 gameweeks so far have produced average scores in the low 40s!).

It's also been just a particularly weird season - with none of the usually most fancied players (apart from Haaland) among the forwards or attacking midfielders yet producing very much, and an unusually large number of huge hauls from complete randoms almost every week, with defenders and defensive midfielders strangely being among the most regular goalscorers so far. And on top of that, few teams have yet produced any consistent form: title hopefuls Liverpool and Manchester City have been quite poor so far, leaving Arsenal starting to look set to win the crown only by default - possibly smashing all known records for the number of clean sheets, but perhaps not scoring that many goals either.

It is, in fact the oddest season in FPL that I can remember - utterly, maddeningly unpredictable.

Amid so many bizarre and unusual events, the impact of LUCK is probably even greater than usual. And this latest - reasonably 'good' for most people - gameweek is a prime example of that.

People who bet the captaincy on Haaland this past week were richly rewarded (some even hazarded their Triple Captaincy on it, though that really wasn't 'smart'); anyone who didn't was harshly penalised. But really, why would you fancy Haaland to have an especially big game against Bournemouth, one of the best defences in the league?? Fancying other options - particularly one of the 'forward-in-disguise' midfielders like Saka or Mbeumo, or perhaps Newcastle's recently sharp-looking Jacob Murphy - with this week's fixtures made perfect sense. Similarly, it was perfectly reasonable to choose Woltemade rather than Mateta on recent form (though the Palace forward has started banging in some nice goals lately, his chance-conversion rate is still shockingly poor); but the big German was oddly out-of-sorts this week (possibly struggling with injury or illness?) and was withdrawn at half-time, while Mateta did again come up with a goal. And it's perfectly reasonable to have taken another Arsenal defender instead of Gabriel (Timber and Calafiori regularly look more likely to pick up goals or assists; it just hasn't quite been happening for them in recent games...); but the big Brazilian continued his absurdly hot streak (surely unsustainable much longer???) by coming up with yet another assist.... on the one occasion when Burnley forgot how to defend a corner.

Here's a guy I found in one of my mini-leagues - a pretty smart player, I think: usually runs me fairly close,... sometimes beats me! He's having a particularly rotten time of it just lately. And in this Gameweek - oh, my good lord, the poor chap somehow found himself down in the bottom 10% for the week??!! Yet there really isn't that much wrong with this team; it was just one of those weeks where almost everyone - especially his captain choice - somehow failed to come through for him. It can happen to any of us!

Unlucky Alf - one of the week's worst performances

Kudus has been disappointing for a while; but perhaps there have been other priorities to fix in the team in recent weeks. And it might be 'bold' to stick with any Liverpool players through their recent rough patch; but Szoboszlai has actually looked the best of them. Tarkowski has regularly been a monster on the 'defensive contributions', and until recently was earning a fair few clean sheets as well. If you'd gone for Calafiori (or Timber) early in the season, it would be reasonable enough to stick with them, rather than joining the late rush for Gabriel (who isn't likely to maintain his recent ridiculously high rate of returns for an extended spell). Thiago and/or Woltemade might prove to be better picks than Mateta over the coming weeks. He's got a pretty decent bench too.

I hope he stays strong, and doesn't get panicked into making a lot of changes (as most FPL managers do, when they have a really awful week like this). It really was just rank bad luck for him this week. The team, the squad is basically pretty sound. There is a strong - almost overwhelming - case for getting Gabriel in as a second Arsenal defender (though he's getting rather expensive now; and should be about due for a 'slump' in productivity!). Kudus and maybe Szoboszlai probably need to go; perhaps Saka too, if he doesn't start producing soon. But this is actually a very solid squad: it didn't 'deserve' to take such a battering from the Fantasy Gods this week! It is, alas, a notoriously cruel game; a cruel, cruel, cruel game.

[Sure enough, the following week he completely turned things around, achieving a weekly rank near the top 20,000. This is actually a really good squad. But even a really good squad can sometimes have a really awful week. The important thing, when something like that happens, is to take the misfortune calmly - and not let yourself be rushed into panicky, unnecessary changes.]

Premature Chip-ulation!

 

Gameweek 10's 'Global Average' score of 65 points was the highest we've yet seen this season. (The weekly average for the 9 previous gameweeks was less than 52; it has been an extraordinarily low-scoring season so far - probably one of the worst on record, certainly the worst I can remember in the last several years.) It's still not at all a great weekly score; but it is much the best we've had so far.

One reason for that is that a few well-fancied - and recently heavily purchased - players such as Gabriel, Mateta, Guehi, Rice, and Minteh all came up with returns; as well as the inevitable Erling Haaland, of course.

But also, a surprisingly large number of people were playing a Bonus Chip this week. And those who went with a Triple Captain play on Haaland did fairly well out of it: a 13-point haul is a very reasonable return on the chip.  (Although, of course, it's some way short of an optimal outcome, since he's quite likely to complete a hatttrick at some point; and both he and a number of other players have already recorded better hauls in other games.) For most of those hazarding their Bench Boost, the chip play probably went much worse.

But really, neither of them deserved to prosper.

There just wasn't any compelling rationale for playing either of the Bonus Chips this weekend. (The Wildcard, yes, because this gameweek marked the one really major 'turn' in fixture difficulty for leading teams in this first half of the season.)  Haaland is still looking like the only player we can look to for a likelihood of fairly regular big hauls; but Bournemouth are a very tough opponent, one of the best defensive teams in the league at the moment. City's next home game is against Liverpool, who haven't been looking very solid at the back this season; and the next three after that are against two of the promoted sides and early relegation favourites West Ham; and they also have an away game against struggling Fulham in there. How can Leeds or West Ham, at home, within the next month or so, not be preferable Triple Captain 'targets' for Haaland?? 

And this Gameweek just didn't offer a good set of fixtures for a Bench Boost play. To get a good return on that chip, you need: a) a strong Bench; b) all 15 players looking certain to start; and c) almost all 15 of your squad facing an attractive fixture. This week, most of the fixtures were too close to call. Only Arsenal and Newcastle were facing obviously weaker opponents; and Newcastle managed to lose anyway. We ended up with a pretty modest total of only 27 goals and 6 clean sheets - not at all a weekend to expect bumper scores.

I understand the nervousness, the impatience, the impulse in many FPL managers to simply get the first Bonus Chips out of the way.. It is a bit discombobulating this season to be faced with an extra set of chips - for which there really is no especially useful purpose in the first half of the season. And there is a risk in waiting too long to play them. This first set of chips has to be used before the mid-point of the season at the end of December; and the crazy fixture density over the holiday season leads to more injuries and rotations, more erratic and unpredictable results - that's not a great time to be playing Bonus Chips either. But really, in the next 5 or 6 weeks, before we get into the worst of that end-of-year mayhem,... Haaland faces 3 or 4 very inviting opponents, who should all surely be better options for a Triple Captain play than Bournemouth (they might not be, in practice; but they really look like they ought to be). And Gameweeks 12, 13, 15, 16, and 17 all look like tempting opportunities for the Bench Boost.

You really ought to have A GOOD REASON for choosing to play chips when you do - something more than just "It was burning a hole in my pocket..." or "My dog told me to do it."

Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 10

The two most transferred-out FPL forwards this week, Joao Pedro and Viktor Gyokeres, both found their scoring boots again. But their most popular replacement, Jean-Philippe Mateta, was also on the scoresheet, so that ended up being a net-zero transfer for most people. And this has been - yet another! - of those gameweeks where somehow almost all of the most fancied players disappoint: Mbeumo, Cunha, Bruno Fernandes, Ismaila Sarr, Saka, Gakpo, Szoboszlai, Salah, Enzo Fernandez, Mo Kudus, Ndiaye and Grealish all came up with little or nothing. How can this keep on happening, week after week after week?? This is shaping up to be one of the lowest-scoring FPL seasons we've ever seen.

Brighton finally seem to be getting into a bit of a groove, with new additions Gomez and Wieffer in particular starting to become very influential for them, along with last season's emerging stars, Rutter, Ayari, and Minteh. But for a couple of outstanding stops from keeper Lucas Perri, Brighton might really have romped away with a cricket score here. Leeds have always looked to me like the weakest of this year's promoted sides, and this performance amply confirmed that. The big FPL headscratcher here is that Minteh was somehow credited with a second assist for a goal that was actually set up by Rutter - WTF??

Burnley's Turf Moor somehow didn't generate the intimidating atmosphere it usually does (only Liverpool have managed to win there in the last year-and-a-bit) for the visit of the league leaders: both the team and the crowd were a bit subdued, apparently expecting and accepting the inevitability of defeat before the game had even kicked off. If they'd been bold enough to be a little more proactive, they might have got something out of this game. Arsenal were drably efficient rather than outstanding, and, but for a couple of shambolic pieces of defending early on (failing to mark anyone effectively at Arsenal's first corner of the game!!), the home side contained their threat fairly comfortably.

Crystal Palace won comfortably at home against a sub-par Brentford, and should have had a more comfortable margin of victory. Popular FPL signing Ismaila Sarr shot tamely against the post when played in behind by a sloppy ball from Nathan Collins.

Wolves and Vitor Pereira just can't catch a break at the moment - going down badly in another 'relegation 6-pointer' after a contentious early sending-off for their centre-back, Emmanuel Agbadou. First, we rarely see a 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity' decision given when the attacking player is so far wide of the goal (here, around the corner of the penalty area - though at least angling his run slightly towards the goal, rather than further away from it); and second, Josh King had clearly controlled the ball with his arm before the foul, but was somehow let off that by VAR (in the good old days, when only the shoulder, above the armpit, could legitimately be used to control the ball, this would have been a very easy decision to make; but with the rather ambiguous extension of the permitted zone of contact to somewhere half, or slightly-more-than-half-way down the upper arm, there are lots of highly ambiguous incidents like this where officials feel inclined to give a 'benefit of the doubt' to a player - where previously no doubt at all would have existed). But Wolves completely fell apart after this, and a dejected Pereira said afterwards it was "the worst performace" he'd ever seen from his team.

Casemiro was one of the weekend's most unlikely - and unjust - goalscorers when he headed United in front at the City Ground, from a corner that should obviously not have been awarded (utterly baffling call by the referee, as the ball was nowhere near to having fully crossed the line; I really would like to see VAR enabled to correct game-changing gaffes like this); although Forest must still accept responsibility for awful defending on this. The home side did well to fight back so resolutely from that setback, and were looking well on top for a long period and got themselves ahead (although they did suffer one major scare when Bruno Fernandes hit a low scudding effort from distance which somehow deceived Sels, sneaking past the keeper to strike the base of the post). But then they suffered another bizarre injustice, when Amad Diallo clearly handled a falling ball in his penalty area but the referee somehow deemed the contact non-culpable. The momentum swung decisively back in United's favour from that moment, and Amad himself grabbed the equaliser shortly afterwards with a superb hooked volley from just outside the box. The young wingback had his best game of the season, with 3 other outstanding shots in the game, the last of which would have claimed an undeserved winner in the dying minutes but for a superb goal-line block from Murillo.

Spurs produced their most dismal performance of the season against Chelsea, and will ultimately be grateful to have come away with a narrow loss in a game in which they were completely dominated. Joao Pedro may now be regaining his confidence in front of goal, after being gifted the game-winning chance early on by a bizarre succession of Spurs defensive errors; he might in fact have ended up with 3 or 4, but for some smart saves from Vicario. And poor Jamie Gittens squandered the best chance of the game, scooping his effort miles over the bar when played in by Joao Pedro. Moreover, Spurs were quite fortunate not to have been reduced to 10 men at the start of the second-half. when Rodrigo Betancur was let off for a very high, very clumsy challenge on Reece James. You can understand the officials' rationale that there wasn't 'excessive force' behind it, but it was a potential ankle-breaker, and we sometimes - quite often, perhaps even usually - see offences like that result in a straight red.

Arne Slot acknowledged that his Liverpool side had needed a little bit of good luck (Martinez passing the ball to Salah just inside the edge of his penalty area, a deflection off two defenders to take Gravenberch's 20-yard drive beyond the keeper) to end their EPL losing streak, but Villa were really not doing themselves any favours: sluggish build-up, dreadful distribution from Martinez, and Ollie Watkins still strangely anonymous. Villa had lively spells, especially early in the game; and both Rogers and Cash smashed good efforts against a post. But ultimately this felt like a fairly comfortable, if lacklustre, win for the home side. It is some measure of how muted the visitors' attacking play was that only Konate reached the threshold for earning 'defensive points' here - no-one else was anywhere near (and usually Villa are a team who demand the highest rate of defensive action from their opponents). Amadou Onana was very lucky not to be given a red card for shoving Macallister in the throat during a bit of goal-line argy-bargy near the end of the game; or a second yellow, when he unwisely continued the wrestling, committing at least two further fouls (one of them involving an elbow thrown towards the side of the Liverpool defender's neck; and Macallister was cannily making the most of their huge discrepancy in size to appear the victim in the exchanges, although he was plainly initiating them). And it was Unai Emery this week who earned the special wrath of FPL fans by making his first substitutions shy of the hour.

West Ham might easily have won even more comfortably against a woefully out-of-sorts Newcastle. Bowen smashed a long-range effort against the post in the opening minute - and looked absolutely gutted that not only had he been denied by such a fine margin (one of many, many, many woolwork-battering goal attempts this weekend; it really does seem to become far more common this season!), but that the visitors almost immediately broke down the other end to score through Jacob Murphy. The lift from that unexpected early lead soon dissipated, though, and West Ham were able to assert control for most of the game. They suffered a second psychological setback when a chance to equalise from the spot was withdrawn after a painfully long VAR deliberation eventually directed Rob Jones to take the dreaded 'second look' at his initial decision. (It felt like this was ultimately the correct call; Thiaw did appear to have got his toe-end on the ball; and, even more importantly, he appeared to have made no actual contact with Bowen [not a 'dive'; the West Ham striker was taking legitimate evasive action in anticipation of an imminent - and possibly heavy - contact from the defender, and may even have believed that he'd felt some such contact; but in fact he seemed to have corkscrewed completely over the outstretched leg]. But there were a number of concerning things about the process. It took nearly 3 minutes - when all that was needed was not a definitive determination of the issue, but a simple judgement on whether was a case to be considered; and that should have taken only about 4 seconds. And the pictures shown on TV - again; this has been happening a lot this season - were a bizarre and confusing jumble of slow-motion and freeze-frame views. I've said before that only full-speed replays - from all the most useful angles - should be played initially; slow-mo and still pictures tend to give an incomplete, distorted, often downright misleading impression. Here, the still-frame most often chosen seemed to be of the fraction-of-a-second prior to Thiaw's presumed touch on the ball; so it was actually showing him not touching it, and the referee was being left to guess whether he had in fact done so. For instances like this, where the touch is so slight tha no TV picture is likely to capture a definitive view of the foot on the ball, you have to make the decision based on whether the direction or speed - or even the spin - of the ball has apparently changed; all information which is concealed by a freeze-frame view. But of course, it's not clear that the pictures being shown on TV are the same as the ones being reviewed by VAR; they obviously ought to be - but we never get any explanaion to that effect.) And in the second-half, they had another goal - for impressive young debut midfielder Freddie Potts - chalked off for an offside against Soucek, after another long VAR hold-up. (And we weren't finally shown the decisive graphic rendering until several minutes later. When we were, it appeared to show that the margin of the decision was less than an inch. As I've said often before, the technology cannot possibly be precise enough to render reliable decisions on such tiny margins; and even if it were, we really do not want to see good goals disallowed for the thickness of the toecap on an attacking player's boot....!) Forunately for the Hammers, Paqueta soon got them back in the game - with a pinger from 23 yards out. 

It turned out to be a miserable day for Nick Pope and his 1.5 million Fantasy owners: he may have been slightly unsighted on the first goal, as Paqueta was using Guimaraes as a screen, but he'll probably still feel that he shouldn't have been beaten at his near post from that distance; for the second, he was scrambling across his goal just a tad prematurely, not anticipating that someone - such as his own hapless defender, Sven Botman - might get a touch on Wan-Bissaka's cross in the near-post area; and the third, when West Ham finally made the game safe with a late breakaway, was an unfortunate fumble, when he allowed Bowen's initial effort to squirm through his legs to leave a grateful Soucek with a tap-in (although Bowen had looked decidedly offside) . Eddie Howe was so concerned about his side's tepid performance that - to the great dismay of FPL fans - he withdrew Woltemade, Gordon, and Krafth (a last-minute stand-in for virus-stricken Trippier) at half-time. I wouldn't get too excited about a West Ham revival just yet; they won't often be fortunate enough to face an opponent this bad; but they were showing significant improvements on their dreadful early-season performances.

City had an early scare when David Brooks set up Eli Kroupi for a tap-in inside the first minute - but the teenage striker had strayed well offside. Bournemouth actually looked the better side for long spells, indeed almost more like the home side; but City had had cannily set up to invite them on and then hit them with quick breaks, and they were repeatedly cut open far too easily through the middle. Haaland claimed 2 early goals with surging solo breaks, rather against the general run-of-play, and might well have completed a first-half hattrick - but the third time he was put through, Petrovic stood up and pulled off a good save. Pep was unhappy about the Bournemouth equaliser, Tyler Adams hooking in a close-range volley after Donnarumma managed only a weak punch on Scott's corner; it was claimed the big keeper had been 'held', but this was not apparent on the TV pictures; David Brooks had given him a cheeky - and pretty ineffectual - nudge in the back in the initial jostling, but this hadn't affected his jump at all; he appeared to have simply misjudged the flight of the ball. Since the vast majority of FPL managers were backing Haaland with the captaincy this week (and most of those who weren't had punted on Gabriel instead!), anyone who'd gone with another option - Mbeumo, Saka, Caicedo, Gakpo, Murphy or Woltemade would all have been reasonable options - was seriously abused by Fate here.

The Monday night clash between Sunderland and Everton looked quite lively, quite hard-fought, but didn't produce that much action in the final thirds - apart from a goal each (one a brilliant individual goal from Ndiaye, the equaliser a first goal for Xhaka, though his low drive probably wouldn't have bothered Pickford if Tarkowski hadn't flung out a foot to try to block - and sliced it into the roof of his own net), and one nervous little goalmouth scramble that Sunderland somehow failed to profit from.. There may have been a slight question-mark over Ndiaye's goal, as Sadiki felt he'd been fouled by Barry at the start of the move - although there really didn't look to be anything much in that complaint. There was also a shout for a handball penalty against Michael Keane near the end, but the ball was fired at him from such close range that it would have been a very harsh award.

Unexpectedly dreadful peformances from Spurs, Newcastle, Brentford, Leeds and Villa (and Wolves were awful again too; although, unfortunately, it's no longer a surprise with them), Onana and Betancur being generously spared red cards, while Wolves's Agbadou suffered a slightly harsh one, Forest being royally screwed twice over by a mistaken award of a corner and a baffling denial of a penalty, and an utterly bizarre misattribution of an assist (rewarding Minteh rather than Rutter?!),... and, as so often this season, a fair old spate of efforts battering the woodwork - all of this makes Gameweek 10 look one of the worst so far this season on the Luck-o-Meter. The FPL 'Team of the Week' is usually one of the strongest indicators of the fluctuating 'luck factor': and once more we look like having a selection that includes almost no-one that anybody actually owns (only Gabriel and Mateta, after Saturday's games,... displaced by he inevitable Haaland and the more unexpected Joao Pedro)! That alone again could justify an 8 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter' this week.

Dilemmas of the Week - Gameweek 10 (25/26)

No European games this week, and only 11 Premier League teams were still involved in the League Cup - and we seem to have come through that set of fixtures without any major new injury worries. However, there was another crop of knocks and so on last weekend....

I'm trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 10 of the season?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Gabriel Martinelli is ruled out for Arsenal this week, and William Saliba is a major doubt, after they picked up problems in last weekend's game against Palace.

The recently impressive Emi Buendia suffered a painful foot injury against City last weekend, and will be missing for at least a week or two. I wonder how badly this might disrupt Villa's tentative recovery.

Eddie Nketiah picked up a hamstring strain in the League Cup win over Liverpool: not too serious, but likely to keep him out for a few weeks. Meanwhile, Adam Wharton has been ill this week, and seems likely to miss Saturday's game against Brentford.

Raul Jimenez had to come off in the League Cup win over Wycombe Wanderers, feeling discomfort in the hip - so, he may be a doubt this weekend (although Marco Silva was sounding optimistic about his chances in Friday's press conference). With Rodrigo Muniz still out with a hamstring problem, it seems likely that Josh King would again be used as a 'false 9', if Raul isn't able to start. Emile Smith Rowe and Harry Wilson are also doubts for Fulham after having to miss the League Cup tie with minor niggles.

Curtis Jones had to come off with a knock against Brentford last week, and is almost certainly going to be unavailable to face Villa. Ryan Gravenberch might be able to return from his ankle injury, although he hasn't trained much; Frimpong and Isak will still be out for some weeks.

Matt Doherty picked up a knee injury and Rodrigo Gomes a groin strain in last Sunday's game against Burnley; nothing too major, but they will both be unavailable this week.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Liam Delap, only just back from injury, is immediately suspended for picking up 2 yellow cards in Wednesday night's League Cup win over Wolves.

Harvey Elliott is a loanee from Liverpool, so ineligible to face the parent club this week - although, for some reason, he hasnn't been getting minutes for Villa anyway.

And we do now have to keep an eye on those who are close to a 'totting up' suspension.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Viktor Gyokeres is doing a good job for Arsenal - but not looking likely to get on the scoresheet very often. The sell-off on him, which has begun slowly over the last few weeks, is now rapidly gathering pace. Joao Pedro, Mo Salah, Tijjani Reijnders, Mo Kudus, and Virgil Van Dijk also seem to have exhausted the patience of their owners this past week or two. Even if you do fancy these players to start producing good points again soon, it is a concern that they're going to be bleeding squad value.

And I'm losing confidence in Everton; their early-season form seems to have fizzled out, and a lack of incisiveness up-front is starting to cost them dear. I'd certainly now consider ditching their attacking players, Iliman Ndiaye and Jack Grealish (and Dewsbury-Hall and Beto...).

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Bryan Mbeumo and Igor Thiago continue to look impressive - but that's been the case for some weeks already now. Ismaila Sarr has come into strong form in the last few weeks, but people have probably been holding off buying him (and other coveted Palace players like Mateta, Munoz, Guehi, and Henderson) until after the postive turn in the team's fixtures this week. I'm still a bit sceptical about Mateta: his finishing has been especially profligate so far this season (in the Bournemouth game a fortnight ago where he nabbed a hattrick, he really should have netted 6!), and I feel Nick Woltemade and Danny Welbeck have been showing much more impressive form.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

Sheep Picks (16)

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are dangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

Yep,  in Gameweek 10, I find myself going for another goalkeeper (after nominating Nick Pope as a weird pick in this series a couple of weeks back). And many of the arguments against Pope are the same as those against Raya, or indeed against any keeper from a top club; and I already went through them in that earlier post.

Raya was already by far the most popular goalkeeper pick this year (well, apart from Martin Dubravka - who, as the only 4-million-pound starter in the position, is almost everyone's favourite back-up option); but he's continuing to gain new owners - with another 150,000 coming on board for him this week. And that really makes no sense.

1)  Raya might be 'the best goalkeeper in the league' - but that doesn't necessarily mean anything for FPL.  Great players don't always earn huge FPL points. (I think Pickford and Alisson still have a little bit of an edge over him in their consistency and all-around impact. But he's certainly 'in the conversation' as one of the best few, an absolutely outstanding keeper - who might help Arsenal to the title this year. But thoughts like that can lead to sentimentality and clouded thinking: it doesn't matter how 'good' he is, or how well his team is doing, unless that translates directly into Fantasy points - and with goalkeepers, it very rarely does.)

2)  Raya is not going to be the year's leading FPL goalkeeper. I am usually very wary of making hard-and-fast predictions; but I feel fairly confident in making that one. Despite an exceptionally strong run of results so far, and even a good number of saves in the early games (and that's another issue: we have almost certainly seen 'peak Raya' already, and his average returns-per-game will decline from here on), he's trailing Robin Roefs, tied with Nick Pope, not far ahead of Petrovic and Vicario, and being rapidly caught up in recent weeks by Donnarumma, Lammens, and Emi Martinez. Over the season, you'd probably fancy Pickford and Henderson to overhaul him as well, and possibly a few others too - the likes of Kelleher, Sanchez, Sels, and Leno.

3)  Goalkeepers tend not to give you much of a 'differential advantage' over their position rivals. Even if Raya does end up as the top-returning FPL keeper this season, it probably won't be by very much of a margin over his closest competitors. You'll almost certainly get more of a points advantage by taking a second (and maybe, some people currently feel, even a third...!) Arsenal defender rather than the goalkeeper.

4)  It is 'saves' points, and the Bonus Points that come with them (keepers rarely get in Bonus Point contention for a clean sheet alone), that differentiate goalkeeper performance - rather than the number of clean sheets. Despite an unusually strong start to the season in this respect, with 7 saves credited to him in the opening game at Old Trafford, Raya has only managed 9 more saves in the 8 games since, and has crashed out of the Top 12 for the number of saves; Roefs, Dubravka and Sels have recorded twice as many. His Bonus Points total is likewise a very modest 3 points so far; almost all the top keepers have now managed 2 or 3 Bonus Points - but Robin Roefs is way out in front with 6 points. Arsenal are so good defensively at the moment that David Raya doesn't look likely to earn points for anything except clean sheets - and that is not enough to make him a top FPL keeper pick.

5)  If Arsenal rack up a huge clean sheet total, that will be more of an advantage to their defenders. The remarkable record of 24 clean sheets set in Mourinho's first season at Chelsea has stood for 20 years now, and will probably stand for a lot longer. In recent years, it has been rare for many teams even to approach achieving 1 clean sheet in every 2 games across the season: 12-15 clean sheets is usually a very good total for the top defensive sides. However, Arsenal are currently at least looking favourites to be well out in front for keeping the most clean sheets this year, and they might have a chance of getting above 20 for the season. If they manage that, all of their defenders might have as many as 5 or 6 more clean sheets than any other defender. (Of course, Raya will also have that advantage over every other keeper, and that's presumably what all his FPL owners are getting so excited about. But for him, it is of less significance, because he is likely to do so poorly from saves and Bonus Points.)  All of their defenders are likely to pick up more Bonus Points than Raya (because they rack up consistent BPS credit from being on the ball so much during build-up play), they will sometimes get an extra lift from the new 'defensive points' (in games like the Manchester United one, where they find themselves under the cosh for long periods; it probably won't happen to them all that often, but, when it does, it will still give their defenders more extra points than Raya is likely to be earning from saves), and all of the Arsenal defenders currently look quite likely to chip in a good number of attacking contributions too - because one or both of the full-backs frequently push forward to support the attacking line, and the centre-backs are the main target men at their highly productive set-piece routines. Any Arsenal defender who starts regularly looks likely at the moment to significantly outscore almost any other defender at any other club; Raya does not look likely to outscore all the other goalkeepers.

6)  With a top side, you must weigh the 'opportunity cost' of going without one of their outfield players. This is the ultimate reason why it is almost never a good idea to take a keeper from one of the title-chasing clubs. In addition to the superior claims of any/all of Arsenal's defenders over Raya, you also have to consider whether you might want Bukayo Saka at some point in the season (almost certainly!). or Declan Rice, who is looking like he might be the most consistent provider in the 'cheap 5th seat' midfield slot. And they have a number of other players who might be worth considering if they hit a patch of hot form: Trossard, Martinelli, Eze, Havertz, Gyokeres. You might indeed want to keep one of your 'Arsenal slots' open for such an eventuality, limit yourself to taking just 2 of their players most of the time, so that you can always easily bring in a third pick whenever you choose to. That flexibility, in itself, could be worth going without Raya.

7)  There's also a price/value-for-money issue with Raya, or any top-price keeper. There's not only an 'opportunity cost' measured against other players you might pick instead within the Arsenal club quota, there's one with other players you might pick within the overall budget allocation. You almost always (no - always) get a bigger points-lift per 100k spent from the outfield positions, especially goalscoring midfielders. Therefore, it never makes sense to go for one of the premium-priced goalkeepers when any of the alternatives half a million or a million cheaper have a decent chance of at least getting somewhere near their points total.

I really do not have anything against David Raya. I think he's an absolutely superb keeper (he was a mainstay of my squad when he started out with Brentford a few years ago). And he is assuredly odds-on to win the Golden Glove this year. But for FPL, he really is quite a terrible choice of goalkeeper.

It might not be readily apparent just how bad a pick he is; particularly if he manages to stay up near the top of the goalkeeper points rankings. But however well he may do, it is absolutely certain that other Arsenal defenders - and perhaps also Saka or another of their attacking players, when in peak form - would have done even better for you if you'd chosen them instead.

A little bit of Zen (66)

 

"Three minutes' thought would suffice to find this out; but thought is irksome and three minutes is a long time."

A.E. Housman

Alas, the great majority of FPL managers often seem to be very unreflective, unwilling to really analyse - or reconsider - any of their decisions. Three minutes is all it might take to save themselves a world of pain....

Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 9

 

The Friday evening kick-off between Leeds and West Ham revealed rather cruelly that Nuno has still not been able to fix the Hammers' numerous defensive shortcomings: at set-pieces, their defence is pretty much non-existent. From the brief highlights I've been able to find, it looks as though Leeds completely dominated the game, but lacked the quality to fashion many really good chances. Yet another goal for a defender - Joe Rodon, one of the most popular budget picks with almost 6% ownership - gets us off with a solid kick to the 'Luck-o-Meter' needle.... although at least there doesn't seem to have been anything amiss with the refereeing at Elland Road this time.

Sunderland switched to a back-three to great effect away at Stamford Bridge, comfortably smothering, out-competing a very unimaginative Chelsea. Even after they conceded an early goal - Garnacho somehow slotting the ball through Roefs's legs on a breakaway after just 3 minutes - they retained their composure, and despite limited possession, generally looked on top in the game and created almost all of the best chances; they were well worth the win claimed with yet another last-gasp goal. Although Chelsea haven't looked terribly convincing recently, this must count as a bit of an 'upset' result: Sunderland - incredibly - moved up to 2nd place, at least for a while with this win; Chelsea, with that one goal given up in the final minutes, slumped from 4th to 7th, and are in grave danger of tumbling out of the Top 10 after Sunday's games. And some will feel peeved (well, only 42,000, apparently!) that goalscorer Garnacho was withdrawn after only 56 minutes. (Maresca appears to want to give minutes to both Garnacho and Estevao; it's unfortunate that both of them look a bit of a liability defensively, and that rotating them like this requires Neto to switch flanks mid-game. Once Palmer's back, I imagine he will be mostly playing off the right side, and both these youngsters will get very limited game-time.)

Newcastle looked comfortably the better side at home against Fulham, but the visitors battled valiantly and were able to make the result closer than it perhaps should have been. Woltemade and Murphy both crashed efforts against a post in the first-half; if either of those had gone in, the game would probably have gone a lot more smoothly for them. Newcastle needed a goal in the final seconds of regulation time from Bruno Guimaraes to clinch the win - although they will feel they earned it with their determined pressure during the last 20 minutes or so.

Last week's late-goal hero Harry Maguire had apparently picked up an injury during the week in ttraining; but Amorim's fetish for varying something every week is evidently not satisfied by forced changes, so he also dropped Mason Mount, who'd been absolutely outstanding in his last two outings. Confusing the opposition with his line-ups seems to be the only 'tactical weapon' the floundering Portuguese coach has left to deploy. Brighton started very brightly, and for the first quarter or so of their game at Old Trafford they really looked more like the home side - having the lion's share of the possession, and looking more controlled and purposeful with it. They were very lucky to avoid conceding a penalty when De Cuyper stretched out his leg backwards to block Diallo and clearly clipped his foot (VAR unfathomably decided that it was OK because he'd got some sort of touch on the ball; I've seen several views of the incident, and am still utterly baffled by that verdict); but on the balance of play, they really didn't deserve to be going into half-time 2 goals down. Cunha had finally broken his goal-drought with a sweet finish (although he's still invariably having pops from well ouside the box, rather than trying to push further forward, or looking to play a teammate in, at least this time he managed to convince Verbruggen and his defenders that he was going to shoot straight ahead - drawing them to concentrate on the right half of their goal - and then switched his finish to a delicate curler just inside the left post), rather against the run-of-play; and then late in the half, Casemiro, of all people, put them 2 ahead with a scuffed shot that was heading well outside the post - until it deflected off a defender's bum, completely wrong-footing Verbruggen. (And that has somehow been credited to Casemiro, rather than going down as an own-goal - WTF??). Referee Anthony Taylor, and his VAR team, certainly weren't on Brighton's side, allowing Mbeumo's third goal to stand, even though Luke Shaw had plainly fouled Ayari - twice - at the start of the move. And then they somehow decided that Dorgu tripping Minteh was not a 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity' even though he was the last man (the rationale was apparently that the ball may have been running away from Minteh; but Minteh is very quick, and if he'd been allowed to continue his run into the penalty he might have caught up to the ball or at least drawn a foul from the outrushing keeper; and Dorgu presumably wouldn't have committed the foul if he didn't think his opponent had a clear goalscoring opportunity.....). There was more mayhem at the end of the game too, with 7 minutes of added-on time being indicated and more like 10 being played, during which both sides managed to pick up a further goal. (And Danny Welbeck, though he does have a good scoring record against his former club,.... does not have any kind of record for scoring from free-kicks!)  This one game, I think, was probably worth at least 4 of my 'luck' points: a completely chaotic and crazy ride!

The Saturday evening game at Brentford proved to be the day's most entertaining. Brentford were all over their illustrious visitors in the first half, moving ahead with Ouattara hooking in a volley from a long-throw after only a minute or so, and then extending the lead with a Schade breakaway which ruthlessly exposed the lack of pace in Liverpool's central defensive pair (Van Dijk, I fear, is aging out very quickly this season: he may still have some of that daunting physical 'aura' - but he just can't cover the ground any more). And indeed, they continued to be dangerous throughout the game, and Marmardashvili had to make a few outstanding saves to keep his side even vaguely in touch. Brentford were perhaps slightly fortunate to escape a penalty against Collins when he appeared to trip Gakpo: it was a very slight contact, but it was definitely there - and we usually see those given these days  (the occasional assertiveness of VAR in refusing to recommend any review of incidents like this is mystifyingly inconsistent). However, they can reasonably feel a bit miffed that the referee added further extra minutes, beyond the advertised three, for no obvious reason, at the end of the first-half - which provided the opportunity for Kerkez to get Liverpool back in the game with his last-gasp goal (yet another goal from a defender; and from a defender who's been having a wretched season so far - more 'luck' points there!!). Liverpool might feel slightly aggrieved that Brentford were able to reassert control in the game with a penalty; but they've got no case - Van Dijk definitely caught Ouattara's boot with a swish at the ball, and the contact was, as VAR correctly intervened to decide, right over the line. The referee (changed in the second-half: 4th official Tim Robinson had stepped in, because Simon Hooper was feeling a stiff hamstring) was otherwise doing everything he could to help Liverpool: there was again an enormous - inexplicable - amount of added-on time at the end of the half, and a pretty outrageous decision to penalise Kelleher under the new 'not getting rid of the ball quickly enough' rule (it's a controversial tweak that hasn't been very strictly applied so far; and Kelleher had not massively exceeded the nominal 8-second allowance anyway), to give Liverpool a chance to apply some late pressure from a corner - luckily, nothing came of that. A possible revitalization of prospects for the thus-far disappointing Kerkez and Salah with their fine goals perhaps doesn't really count as 'luck' (although, given recent form, they were among the more unlikely goalscorers for this game), but it may create renewed FPL interest in them from here on. The major FPL weirdness of the game - not necessarily 'unjust', just something that never ever happens - was that Dominik Szoboszlai earned the maximum bonus points, despite there being 5 different goalscorers in the game, 4 other providers of assists, and strong displays from both goalkeepers; the Hungarian star did indeed have a fine game, and was credited with an absolutely enormous number of 'defensive contributions' (hough that doesn't usually move the BPS needle much, if at all), but it is very, very odd that BPS rewarded him this week (somewhat makes up for a few earlier performances where he was very clearly the 'Man of the Match' but got absolutely no BPS recognition!).

Arsenal v Palace was as tight and scrappy as might have been expected from two of the league's most resilient defences, and it was perhaps a little bit of a surprise that this one didn't remain goalless. Yet again, it was a set-piece that made the difference for Arsenal, with Eze responding quickest to a second ball and rocketing home a volley from the edge of the box. In the first-half, the visitors had actually made the livelier start and created a few moments of danger.  The big surprise for FPL was that Gabriel, 'flagged' as a big injury doubt prior to the game, was able to start after all, and produced another dominating performance, narrowly missing out on extra 'defensive contribution' points, coming close to a goal of his own with a thunderous header against the crossbar, and claiming the maximum bonus points for the game; many FPL managers had been prompted to leave him on the bench this time, because of the injury uncertainty (although there would have been a case for resting him anyway, as Palace are the most formdiable opponents Arsenal have yet faced, and thus another clean sheet this week was probably much less than a 50% probability). More points-attribution weirdness here, with Declan Rice somehow being awarded the assist for the goal, even though another player headed his floated delivery back towards Eze on the edge of the area - what gives??

The Villa revival continues, as they cruised to a comfortable home win against City. Although one might fancy it's more a case of the City 'wobble' continuing, getting even worse (perhaps their horrendous 'Tron' change strip wasn't helping their cause!); they didn't really look any better than outside contenders for the Top Four with Rodri anchoring their midfield; without him, they're starting to look like mid-table non-entities. Even the great Erling Haaland had a 'quiet' game this time: not being able to find a decisive finish to get past Martinez on his lone breakaway in the first-half, and having his apparent late equaliser denied for an offside against Marmoush, who'd darted in behind to supply the square ball across the six-yard box. Villa were well-organised, but still lacked creative fluency, and needed a goal-out-of-nothing from Matty Cash to put them in front.

More weirdness at Bournemouth too, with Marcus Tavernier scoring direct from a corner (a true freak event that usually only occurs in the Premier League once every season or two), and then teenager Eli Kroupi hitting a banger from nearly 24 yards out. Bournemouth were well worth their comfortable win against a still floundering Forest - but the manner of the goals was unusual. There were two elements of controversy in the Tavernier goal too; Tyler Adams had given Matz Sels a cheeky little shove as the ball came in (it wasn't much of a contact, but it may have slightly unbalanced or distracted the keeper at a crucial moment - and they usually get a lot of protection from the officials); but more importantly, the corner should not have been awarded in the first place, as Neco Williams's block ricocheted back against Tavernier's toe before going out (it would be nice if the VAR process was slick enough to give near-instant overturns on this sort of wrong call; unfortunately, at the moment it clearly isn't).  It may also be a source of some FPL concern that Antoine Semenyo's 'hot streak' appears to be cooling somewhat, as other teammates - Tavernier, Kluivert, Scott, Brooks, Kroupi - are starting to shine more around him.

Poor Wolves are left wondering how on earth they lost at home to Burnley (a second defeat in a 'relegation six-pointer' already this season, having also been beaten at home by Leeds at the end of last month). They showed great spirit to get back on terms by half-time, after conceding two early goals through some dreadful defending; and in the second-half, they were well on top, but just couldn't find the opening that would put them ahead - though they went very, very close with a superb free-kick from Arias crashing against the crossbar, and a stinging volley from the always dangerous Bellegarde being well beaten away by Dubravka. Even at the death, they nearly changed the result - as, seconds after substitute Foster had nicked a third goal in added-on time, Santiago Bueno was denied at the other end by a superhuman save from Dubravka (we've seen many exceptional saves already this season; but really, that one might be a 'Save of the Season' contender). Fate just does not love Wolves this year. More FPL surprise here, in that two teams who've struggled for goals would not have been expected to produce such a high-scoring encounter, Zian Flemming, who bagged Burnley's first two, isn't even their preferred starter up-front (only deputising for Foster, who's feeling his way back after suffering a knock on international duty a couple of weeks back), and although Hartman is a handy attacking full-back, claiming 2 assists in the same game is a freakish rarity for anyone. I still think Wolves have too many good players to get relegated, but.... they're so deep in the mire now that they'll probably still be digging their way out next May; and they might not manage it, with the promoted sides looking so much stronger this season.

A rare sloppy defensive display from Everton cost their unbeaten record at their new stadium in Sunday's late game, one which threw up a fair amount of surprise and controversy. Jake O'Brien appeared to have grabbed a quick equaliser for the home side, heading in a near-post corner; but after a VAR intervention, it was ruled out for a supposed 'impeding the goalkeeper' offence. This looked like one of the most unjust decisions of the weekend: the pair of Everton players had merely placed themselves either side of Vicario, to restrict his movement; they weren't leaning on him, or even making contact at all. And the Spurs keeper is notoriously feeble about asserting himself in these situations where opposing players try to crowd him in the six-yard box: if an opponent is standing in your way, and you can't run through or around him - that's your fault, goalie, not his. However, the threshold for 'obstruction/distraction' is lower when the players are offside - as they were, after O'Brien had headed the corner goalwards; although that then becomes a very fine call as to when the relevant offence is deemed to have occurred (for me, Vcario was being 'obstructed', but not illegally so, when the corner was taken; he had forced his way past the Everton players by the time the header was directed towards him). So, although the decision feels harsh, it my have been technically correct (even David Moyes, who will usually argue any case, no matter how slim, for his side, was ultimately prepared to accept this ruling). Van de Ven, meanwhile, claimed a brace of headed goals from first-half corner-kicks, one from each side, one in the opening minutes and one in added-on time - yet another rather freakish event in the weekend (and he probably wouldn't even have been the main target for such set-pieces if Cristian Romero hadn't been out injured this week). Kudus was surely robbed of the assist for the first of these: did someone else get a flicked header on? was it decisive?? I don't think so! Spurs took their foot off the gas in the second-half, allowing Everton to try to find their way back: Ndiaye hooked an effort inches wide just minutes after the restart, and then Vicario had to pull off a fine reaction save from Beto's bicycle-kick. But their lack of incisiveness in front of goal again cost them dear, and ultimately Spurs were able to nick a third with a late break.

With a massive haul for a goalscoring defender in the opening game, we were already registering a point or two on the scale on Friday. Then were was a truly horrendous game at Old Trafford, with a penalty against De Cuyper and a sending-off for Dorgu inexplicably missed by the officials, a dubiously allowed goal for Mbeumo, and a mystifyingly misattributed one for Casemiro (should clearly have been an own-goal against poor Ayari). Another possibly missed penalty against Nathan Collins, and a whole raft of unexpected results, unexpected goalscorers, and unexpectedly high-scoring games on Saturday had this Gameweek well on course to become one of the weirdest of the season so far. And there was more strangeness on Sunday, with Tavernier's goal direct from a corner, a couple of worldies out-of-nothing from Cash and Kroupi, a couple of misattributed assists, and numerous efforts smashing the woodwork, going only just wide, or bringing out top-class stops from keepers. And yet again most of the goals were claimed by defenders, with almost nothing coming from most of the forwards and attacking midfielders, and almost all of the most fancied players in FPL - Haaland, Woltemade, Gyokeres, Mateta, Joao Pedro, Gakpo, Ndiaye, Grealish, Enzo Fernandez, Caicedo, Ismaila Sarr - producing 'blanks'. I feel the FPL 'Team of the Week' is one of the strongest indicators of the fluctuating 'luck factor': and this time we've got 4 double-digit hauls from defenders (all of them owned by only fairly small minorities), Emi Martinez the most successful keeper, Burnley's Zian Flemming the only forward to earn inclusion, and almost zero-owned Casemiro, Tavernier, and Aaronson making it into the midfield. WTF??? That alone, even without all the unusual game events and a few very dodgy refereeing calls, makes it an 8 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter' this week.

Dilemmas of the Week - Gameweek 9 (25/26)

 

We seem to have come through this week's batch of European games without too many problems - except for Liverpool, who suddenly face doubts over 3 key players.

I'm trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 9 of the season?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Gabriel, one of FPL's top-owned defenders, might be a doubt after limping off with a knock against Atleti the other night.

Villa full-back Lucas Digne is likely to be out for a week or two after getting his ankle crunched by Kevin Danso last Sunday.

Brighton's Diego Gpmez is a minor doubt after having to be withdrawn last week against Newcastle with a hip problem.

Bournemouth striker Evanilson was a late withdrawal last week, complaining of a calf strain. He too seems likely to be out for at least a week or two, which should provide starting opportunities for their exciting youngster, Eli Kroupi.

Everton's Jarrad Branthwaite was widely reported to have needed surgery on a long-standing thigh-muscle problem this week. If true, that would imply enhanced value for Michael Keane, keeping a regular start for at least a few more weeks. However, other sources have suggested that he's been training regularly this week - so, who knows what's up with that? (Probably of very marginal interest for FPL anyway: surely everybody's going for Tarkowski and/or one of the full-backs from that defence?)

Popular FPL defender Joachim Anderson (has been rather monstering the 'defensive contributions' so far) had to go off against Arsenal last week with a hamstring problem: doesn't seem too serious, but may sideline him for a week or two.

Leeds defender Pascal Struijk missed midweek training with an illness, so is a doubtful starter this weekend.

Liverpool seem to have been most heavily hit this week: Ryan Gravenberch is a doubt after having had to come off with an ankle injury against Manchester United last Sunday, while Alexander Isak (groin) and Jeremie Frimpong (hamstring) both limped out of last night's game against Frankfurt with muscle problems.

City's Nico Gonzalez suffered a knock in Tuesday night's game against Villareal, and might be 50/50 to feature against Villa.

Chris Wood and new winger Dilane Bakwa both missed Forest's midweek Eurepean game with minor issues which may keep them out again this weekend; and Oleks Zinchenko, gettting a rare start, limped off in that game. Dan Ndoye on the right wing and Neco Williams at left-back probably weren't in much danger of losing their usual starts anyway, but new boy Igor Jesus now seems likely to start up front for Forest.

Cristian Romero remains a doubt this week after pulling a muscle in the pre-game warm-up last Saturday, and Wilson Odobert is also suffering with a knock picked up in Wednesday's Monaco game.

West Ham central defender Konstantinos Mavropanos has suffered a muscle injury this week, and seems likely to be out for at least a few weeks. Presumably Jean-Clair Todibo will deputise.

And Wolves's dangerous midfielder Jean-ricner Bellegarde is another who's been laid low with illness this week.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Malo Gusto is serving a one-match ban this week, after being sent off for 2 yellow cards against Forest.

Remarkably, he's the only disciplinary absentee this week - although we do now have a number of players who are getting dangerously close to a 'totting up' suspension.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Mo Salah disappointed the legion of idolaters who were convinced that he always scores against Manchester United, and now some 450,000 owners have deserted him within a matter of days (although his ownership remains at a massive 32%, and might not drop much further from that - such is the blind faith that The Cultists have in him; well, that and the fact that a lot of them probably stopped playing the game when he failed to score a hattrick in his opening few appearances.....).

And there's also a bit of a mass exodus going on with a slew of other severely disappointing forwards: Viktor Gyokeres, Chris Wood, Richarlison, Alexander Isak, and Joao Pedro have all seen a big drop in ownership this week. The way these things go,.... probably at least one of them is suddenly about to turn things around. I suspect Joao Pedro might be the most promising option to gamble on for another week or two, since Chelsea still have a pretty soft fixture run ahead; and the prospect that the Brazilian might now be paired with Marc Guiu as a more conventional forward, allowing him to fulfill a more creative role in the 'No. 10' space, as happened in the second-half against Forest last week, gives further grounds for optimism, I think. (Though, to be honest, I would have lost patience with him long since: he has looked completely out of it, in Palmer's absence over the past month.)

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

A crucial goal for Bryan Mbeumo in Manchester United's surprising win over Liverpool last week has boosted interest in him. And goalie Senne Lammens is also attracting attention (not too unreasonably: United tend to be fairly solid at the back, even when they're struggling to create anything going forward; but they're not formidable enough for you to covet many of their other players, so their keeper is a free pick, unconstrained by 'club quota' anxieties). However, I don't fancy their fixture-run through November too much: even their next two opponents, Brighton and Forest, could cause them some problems; and Spurs, Everton, and Palace after that will be even tougher.

There's also an unseemly rush (325,000 new owners this week, and counting!) to bring in Jean-Philippe Mateta after last week's hattrick (still not an awfully convincing performance: one goal dubiously onside, one from a rather soft penalty award - at least 4 much better chances wasted!!); I can't see the point in buying him - or teammate Ismaila Sarr - until this week's visit to Arsenal is behind them. And I still fancy the recent form of Igor Thiago and Nick Woltemade far more for back-up strikers. Of course, Bournemouth's Eli Kroupi is also suddenly popular, after his impressive brace last week; a beguilingly cheap 4.5-million - but surely only likely to get 1 or 2 starts before Evanilson is back.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

A little bit of Zen (65)

 

"It's good to be able to perceive the nobility in failure. Otherwise, we might never have anything to celebrate."

GW

That's certainly long been the case for followers of the England football team! (Well, the men's team, at least. The women seem to have developed a disturbing habit of winning things. Will our chaps be able to take inspiration from their example? Or will it only serve to show us up even more?? Perhaps we'll find out next summer....)

It's usually how the FPL season pans out for most of us too....

Some ('non-Zen') WISE WORDS on our Internet culture

 

"If you need every story in your feed to be 'My team wins' and 'Here's why my side is the good one', you're WEAK - and deliberately keeping yourself ignorant."

Bill Maher

Veteran comedian/satirist/social commentator Bill Maher's Friday night political discussion show on HBO, Real Time, is one of my most regular Youtube fixes - particularly his 'New Rule' segment, the more 'serious' monologue with which he regularly concludes the show. 

He's often now decried by elements of 'The Left' in America as a 'sell-out' - because he's willing to engage with right-wing figureheads and talking-points on the show, and to crticise some of the grosser excesses of 'woke-ism' & co. But humour is essentially apolitical: it makes fun of whatever is most ripe to be made fun of. In essence, he is still very obviously the same anarchic hippie pot-lover he's always been. (So, yes, very largely a man after my own heart....)

His most recent 'New Rule' featured the devastating comment above on the 'bubble' mentality that online life now seems to create and perpetuate (and went on to suggest some ways in which we might seek to confound The Almighty Algorithm and break out of our 'bubbles' a little; the link embedded above should take you to the mid-point of his homily, where the key quotation I've copied here occurs; the whole piece is worth a watch).

I feel this is a point which has particular relevance to the realm of Fantasy Premier League. I am  widely reviled on most of the online forums about our Fantasy game that I contribute to - purely because I insist on repeatedly making points that many people find uncomfortable. - relentlessly questioning usually unquestioned 'truths'.  You know, things like: bonus chips do not automatically work better in Double Gameweeks;... a midfielder is usually a better captain/Triple Captain pick than a forward....; and 'effective ownership' has nothing to do with differential points advantage. That kind of thing.

Try to get used to this, people: DISCOMFORT is good for you, DISCOMFORT is an evolutionary stimulus.

You might disagree with me; you might not understand me; I might be wrong - but being willing to engage with ideas that you find challenging helps to grow your brain!

[I know my weekly 'A Little Bit of Zen' bon mots are often not very Buddhist in nature at all (mostly more Stoic or Daoist, or just sad-truth-wrapped-in-a-joke...); but I felt these observations really fell rather outside even the very loose parameters of that series.]

Viking plunder!!

 

Well, damn - the Lanky Viking has gone and done it again. Erling Haaland has notched his fourth brace - and his fourth double-digit FPL points haul - of the season that is still only two months old,... even against one of the league's better defences,.... even when his team are really still not playing all that well.

I don't like to say that any player is absolutely a must-have. There are almost always alternative stategies you can pursue by redistributing your budget spend around other players, and the highest points-producers are not usually 'essential' merely because of that.

But right now, in this sort of form, yes, Haaland is a must-have.

And it's not just because of his impressive numbers, his impressive consistency. It's also because of the complete lack of any competition, among the forwards or in any other position.

Even with the additional points now available for cumulative 'defensive contributions', it has been an astonishingly low-scoring FPL season so far. 

Ordinarily, we'd hope to see almost all of our starters breaking 50 points by this stage, and at least 2 or 3 of our biggest performers having racked up 60 or 70 or more. Last year, Salah, Palmer, Saka, and Mbeumo as well as Haaland posted enormous numbers in the opening months of the season. This year, Haaland is the only forward to have registered more than 50 points (his current total of 83 points is in fact more than twice as good as his closest rivals); Semenyo is the only midfielder to have done so (his 70 point total is well behind Haaland, but again almost twice as good as all but a dozen or so of his midfield rivals, and 24 points clear of the second-best), and the only other players to have just squeaked over that threshold are a trio of defenders (who've happened to pick up untypical goals early on).

There was a busier and more turbulent transfer window than usual at the start of this season, and many of the new players have disrupted the tactics of their new clubs and/or not yet found their feet in the new setting. We've also seen rather a lot of early-season injury problems, with the absences of Palmer and Saka - expected to be two of the top FPL performers - particularly unfortunate. The early international breaks have perhaps been a bit more disruptive than usual too. And, what with one thing and another, nobody's form has settled down yet, no team has been consistently or convincingly good so far - and we've seen a lot of unexpected results.

And almost none of the most fancied FPL assets have produced very much at all so far. In fact, NO-ONE  - apart from Haaland and Semenyo - has posted really good FPL numbers yet.

While this continues to be the case, and particularly while the other expensive players - Salah, Palmer, Isak, Saka, Gyokeres - are out of action or not producing, there is absolutely no pressure on the FPL budget: there is no problem about affording Haaland, even at his enormous 14-million-plus valuation. I said at the start of the season that it was difficult to envisage either Haaland or Salah 'justifying' their very high price-tags this year; but I noted there that because of a lack of budget pressure early in the season - with fewer high-priced players than usual, and most of them not fit - it was possible to afford one of them (but not both); and Haaland has obviously been the one to go for.

While Haaland is thus eminently 'affordable', is producing 2 or 3 times as many points as any of his rivals, and no-one else in the game is producing big points at all at the moment - YES, he is a must-have.

But this is a freak circumstance. I can't recall seeing anything quite like it before. And I don't think this situation will last very long. Haaland's points production will surely slow down at some stage. And, even if it doesn't, when the likes of Palmer, Saka, and Isak finally hit form (yes, sorry - I have rather given up on Mo Salah's prospects for this season), there may still be questions to be answered about whether Haaland continues to be a 'must-have'.

Enjoy this remarkable run while you can, Haaland idolaters - he's unlikely to remain an indispensable pick for the whole season.