Dilemmas of the Week - Gameweek 5 (25/26)

 

I'm trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 5 of the new season?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Martin Odegaard looks likely to miss this week's clash against City after injuring his shoulder again in a fall against Forest last week.

Youri Tielemans picked up a minor calf injury last week, and is expected to be missing for a week or two.

Bafode Diakite was a late omission last week with some kind of muscle soreness, and continues to be a doubt this week (with the French Serbian Stephen Milosavljevic likely to deputise for him).

Brentford's Igor Thiago was widely reported as an injury doubt, after being omitted from the midweek League Cup tie against Villa with a knock; but apparently he's good to go.

Jack Hinshelwood turned his ankle over badly in the game against Bournemouth last week, and has apparently suffered some ligament damage which is likely to keep him out for several weeks at least. Maxim De Cuyper suffered a heavy knock to his left knee in a collision with the advertising hoardings; not too serious, but likely to keep him out this week (Kadioglu his likely replacement). [De Cuyper, remarkably, is still the 35th most-owned defender at 3.6% - despite having bled owners steadily since GW1, and more heavily this week...]

Burnley's Jacob Bruun Larsen was omitted last week with a training knock, but it's hoped he might be available again this time.

Maresca says Cole Palmer is OK, despite appearing to suffer some discomfort in his groin at the end of this week's Champions League game against Bayern. And Romeo Lavia is finally close to a possible return, though probably not this week.

Leeds's Dan James (abdominal injury) and Wilfried Gnonto (calf strain) are both likely to miss this week's game against Wolves.

Kieran Trippier picked up a knock against Barcelona in midweek, and Fabian Schar had to withdraw after feeling woozy some time after taking a fierce Marcus Rashford shot into the side of his face (so, will surely be excluded by 'concussion protocols', even if he's otherwise fine) - both very doubtful for this weekend. Trippier's absence might open up a chance for Lewis Hall to finally make a start at left-back, while new signing Malick Thiaw, rather than Sven Botman, might deputise for Schar.

Murillo suffered a heavy knock on the shin against Arsenal last week and has been out of team training since, though Postecoglou has hopes he might be able to take part against Burnley.

Sunderland's promising winger Enzo Le Fée missed last week's game against Palace with a minor training injury, but should be back this week.

Wolves defender Ki-Jana Hoever had to come off against Bournemouth last week with a knee injury; not too serious, but going to keep him out for a week or two. Jorgen Strand Larsen, though, is reportedly recovered from his Achilles strain, and Pereira is hopeful he can contribute minutes against Leeds.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Tomas Soucek is starting a three-match ban, after getting sent off for a high challenge last week.

Lesley Ugochukwu has a one-match ban for receiving two yellow cards against Liverpool (lucky it wasn't a straight red for the first one, which was pretty much identical to Soucek's foul!!).

And Anthony Gordon is serving the last instalment of his three-match ban.

You'd expect that Senne Lammens would soon replace the chaotic Altay Bayindir in the Manchester United goal, but Amorim now seems to have a knee-jerk aversion to doing anything sensible. And who, really, would take any United defensive player - or any United player - with the form they're showing at the moment??

Jean-Philippe Mateta hasn't been looking very sharp lately (missed an absolute sitter in the final minute of their League cup clash with Milwall the other night!), and is possibly carrying some sort of problem; Oliver Glasner recently said that he "needs a rest". So, with Eddie Nketiah finally fit again, maybe he will drop to the bench this week?  That woud be quite a blow in FPL, as he is the 8th most popular forward pick, with over 12% ownership.

And at Spurs, Djed Spence seems likely to lose his start now that Destiny Udogie is ready to play again.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Aston Villa and West Ham players look like poison at the moment.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Phil Foden looked very impressive on his comeback last week; though there are, unfortunately, always doubts about how long his confidence will hold up when Pep constantly rotates him out of the starting lineup or plays him out of position on one of the flanks. Cole Palmer also looked back to his best in his second-half outing against Brentford, and against Bayern in midweek, where he lasted the whole game (scoring fine goals in both, and having a second against Bayern unluckily ruled out for a tight offside). Bryan Mbeumo and Leny Yoro were the only bright spots in Manchester United's lame performance last week - but you probably wouldn't want to gamble on any United players just at the moment. Jack Grealish and Iliman Ndiaye have looked consistently good in every game so far, and I fancy them to give Liverpool a tough time in the Merseyside derby. I also thought Brentford's new centre-forward Igor Thiago looked very impressive against Chelsea last week.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

Time for the CRYSTAL BALL...

 

I usually refrain from making firm predictions (because you look foolish if they turn out to be wrong!). And I'm particularly wary of venturing any opinions about the likely course of the League season when it's barely begun. We won't really have a firm idea of anyone's form for the early part of the season - team, or individual - for at least a few more weeks yet. Some of the big new signings may take a good while to find their feet. Nottingham Forest are reeling from an abrupt change of manager; and a few other clubs might be facing similar disruption soon (though, hopefully, that should be a positive for them, after the awkward transition phase). 

However, if you delay too long in entering into these traditional early-season prognostications, people accuse you of being too cautious, or of making things easier for yourself by waiting on everyone's early performances. Guessing everyone's league position come the end of the season is a bit of a mug's game; but I'll give it a go.

The title looks to me like a three-way race between Liverpool, Arsenal, and Chelsea. Sorry, Pep; I think City's problems are too systemic for you to find a reliable cure; although you have so many top-class players that you're bound to be able to hang on in the upper reaches of the table, and might often challenge the top three - nevertheless, I don't think you'll quite be there at season's end. The one person who might cause me to revise that estimation is Phil Foden - if he were to have another season like that of two years ago. But I fear that Pep has broken him, and we might never see such a sustained run of brilliance, or even a sustained run of starts from him again.

An Arsenal fan on a Facebook forum a week or two back was crowing about the club's current squad, and was rash enough to ask, "Who can stop us this season?"  I immediately replied, "Arteta." While he is very tactically astute in many ways, he strikes me as excessively cautious in his general approach - and that tends to stifle some of the creativity out of a lot of his best players, and makes the side often somewhat predictable in its attacking play. Yes, they've got a decent forward now; but I don't think he's anywhere near as good as Isak or Joao Pedro - and Arsenal's problems run deeper than that anyway. I fancy them to do no better than 3rd (and possibly even a place or two lower).

However, I'm not entirely convinced about this transitional Liverpool team either: so far, they're looking a lot more vulnerable at the back, and a lot less fluent in attack. They have so many good players - and such a daunting habit of clawing out results late on in the game, even when they haven't played all that well - that I think they'll certainly be fairly dominant again; but maybe not quite as formidable as last year; there might be just enough of a vulnerability to allow someone else to slip ahead of them. So, I'll put Liverpool in 2nd place.

Now, I admit this is highly speculative - perhaps hopeful (I'd like to see a changing-of-the-guard: the top of the table has been monopolised by City and Liverpool for too long now) - of me, and I'm not very confident in this prediction; but I fancy Chelsea to sneak the title this year. I've always felt that a robust central midfield is a necessary foundation for any great team, and while Gravenberch and Zubimendi are outstanding players (and Rodri too, of course), I feel that Caicedo is next-level as a combative pivot player; and he's got some exceptionally strong back-up in Andrey Santos and Romeo Lavia. I think Cole Palmer could be a crucial difference-maker this year as well; again, for me, a much more dangerous playmaker than Wirtz, Szoboszlai or Odegaard. And Joao Pedro is shaping up to be at least nearly as dangerous in attack as Isak or Salah, and probably far better than Gyokeres. The Brazilian wunderkind Estevao is also showing hints that he might be able to have a very big impact this season. Now, I have reservations about some other aspects of the Chelsea team, and their overall squad depth (paradoxical, perhaps, as they have been so often mocked for carrying such a bloated player roster in the last few years; but they've had to let a lot of their better back-ups go now, and, outside of their ideal starting eleven, I'm not sure that they have that much strength in depth: Palmer and Joao Pedro, anyway, are irreplaceable). They've also been worryingly erratic in their form over the past year. If they can rediscover and sustain the kind of fluency and self-belief that carried them to an imperious success in the Club World Cup this summer, they can beat anyone. But will they??  Well, I'm hoping so...

I think Thomas Frank's rejuvenated Spurs and - I hope - Newcastle (another team I have a soft spot for; although Isak's departure is obviously a body-blow, and lack of squad depth could become a big issue for them with the additional challenge of Champions League football again this year) could be vying with Manchester City as the best of the rest. I would like to think that they might be capable of scrabbling above City, and perhaps even dislodging Arsenal from 3rd - but, realistically, 5th and 6th is probably the best they can do.

Next up, the teams that should have the quality and resilience to finish fairly comfortably top half, but can probably only reach the fringes of European qualification: Bournemouth, Everton, Forest, and Crystal Palace - in that order. Palace have one of the best defences in the League, but don't have a lot of squad depth, and I fear they may struggle to produce much attacking threat now that they've lost Eze. Everton, similarly, should thrive because of the strength of their defence, but also lack squad depth; and although Grealish and Ndiaye are so far looking like they could be two of the players of the season, I think they'd need a bit more quality up front to do any better than 7th or 8th (and they only have a chance of getting that high because so many other clubs look likely to suffer a bit of a drop-off this season). Bournemouth look the strongest of these mid-level teams to me at the moment, because they have a wealth of attacking options as well as a decent defence, and Andoni Iraola impresses me as one of the shrewdest and most effective of the league's coaches. It pains me to put Forest so low; and the reason I do so is that I worry they didn't strengthen their squad quite enough over the summer, rather than that I think Postecoglou will repeat his Spurs disaster with them. There is a lot of uncertainty about how well they'll fare, after the loss of an inspirational manager who'd brought them so much success, and having to undergo a transition to a very different tactical system (with some players, like Milenkovic and Wood, two of their biggest stars last season, likely to have to be sacrificed to that system); but ultimately they have a very strong defence and keeper, an excellent central pivot pair, and some outstanding creativity from Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi, and Ndoye - so, I don't see them finishing too much lower than last year.

Then we have a litle cluster who are probably too good to be in any serious danger of relegation, but too inconsistent to get into a very competitive top half. And, at the moment, I'd put Manchester United in that group - and probably at the bottom of it. I think the lack of balance in the squad (and still a lack of depth: they have a fair bit of cover at the back, but no obvious stand-ins for the likes of Sesko, Mbeumo, or Fernandes) and the complete absence of a worthwhile central midfield unit, dooms them to another difficult season, even if they should soon ditch the obviously floundering Ruben Amorim. A prompt and strong change of manager could possibly drag them back up into European contention, and certainly to around mid-table; but I fear that if they persist with Amorim, they could have another season just as grim as last time and often be hovering dangerously near the relegation zone.

I'd put Wolves as the best of this upper bottom-half group - somewhat bold, perhaps, given what a dismal sttart they've had; but I have faith in Vitor Pereira as a manager, and I think they've got a lot of good players (I fancy Jhon Arias to catch fire soon), and a good overall balance in their squad. Also, they've got a very encouraging run of fixtures coming up, and so could get themselves well out of trouble within the next month or so. How long they're without star striker Jorgen Strand Larsen could be a critical factor, though, in how their season will develop. Brentford and Brighton, I think, will continue to be sides that cause problems for a lot of opponents with their strong attacking play, but will leak too many goals to push for the top half of the table.

Our three promoted sides have started quite brightly, and look a lot less awful than their predecessors in the last few seasons. But I fear they still don't have the overall quality to stay up - unless one or more of the established clubs does them a favour by having a really serious meltdown; and while there are a few candidates for such a disaster in the opening month of the season, I imagine most if not all will be able to turn things around to some extent. Leeds, I think, look much the weakest of the trio (relying on Calvert-Lewin for goals - not good), and can probably be written off fairly soon. There's not much to choose between Burnley and Sunderland, but Sunderland have impressed me as having a balance of strengths throughout the team; and again, the solidity that their classy veteran Granit Xhaka brings to central midfield might ultimately be decisive in their favour; they, I think, will be the one new club to stay up... if anyone does.

The clubs who, at the moment, look like they might make way for a promoted survivor are Fulham and Aston Villa - who have both punched massively above their weight in recent seasons, but now seem to have run badly out of steam. Villa in particular have had one of the worst starts to a season I can remember from any established club in a long ime;  they don't have the financial resources to attract many new players, and have lost a number who were very valuable to them (Douglas Luiz, Jhon Duran, Leon Bailey); and opponents seem to have sussed out Emery's style of play and found ways to neutralize it. They would currently be my favourites to allow Sunderland (or Burnley) to stay up,... were it not for West Ham. And West Ham have probably the weakest squad of any of the established teams (if you took away Bowen, Wilson, and Paqueta, you wouldn't fancy them to do very well in the Championship), as well as a deeply inadequate coach. As with Amorim at United, I think there could be a dramatic upturn in their performances if they change the manager promptly. But will that happen? If it doesn't, I might have an early bet on them being relegated.

So, my expected end-of-season running-order (for now, at least; nobody's going to be able to make many calls correctly this early in the season - I reserve the right to revise most of these views!) looks like this:

A few bold and quirky choices in there, I admit.

How many of these predicted rankings will prove to be somewhere near accurate?? I'll check back in May to review my results.

[Well, damn - I regret some of these calls already, after the Gameweek 5 matches! Chelsea have a potentially disastrous weakness between the sticks (and I don't think their current back-up keeper Jorgensen is good enough to deputise for any length of time), and don't have the resilience to bounce back from major set-backs; and, without Palmer, they are toothless. If Palmer -  and Joao Pedro - can stay fit and in-form all season, and Sanchez doesn't suffer too many more aberrations, they could still get themselves sort of in the the title scrap. But that's now looking doubtful; and I fear they've squandered too many points already to be likely winners. City, on the other hand, are starting to impress me as maybe being capable of pushing Liverpool. Arsenal still don't.... And if Liverpool keep scraping wins that they don't really deserve, they might prove to be unstoppable.

Wolves falling down at Leeds was the biggest shock of the weekend for me. I had expected them to get at least a draw, and probably win comfortably. This was a bit of a freak result, and it hasn't done anything to shift my opinion that Leeds are probably the weakest of this year's promoted sides. But Wolves are now so far adrift at the bottom of the table that simply fighting their way out of the relegation battle is a huge challenge, and a mid-table finish is already starting to look all but impossible. A rather fortuitous win for Manchester United hasn't moved the needle in their favour; possibly the reverse, as it might buy Amorim some more time - which I'm sure will ultimately be detrimental. Brentford are looking worryingly rocky in defence, and there's still no sign of a revival from Villa. The beneficiary of all of that doom-and-gloom will probably be Fulham, who look like they could do a fair bit better than I initially suggested.

I'll try to review this selection perhaps every three months or so, to see how things are changing as the season progresses.]

A little bit of Zen (60)

 

"Sometimes, impatience is also a virtue."

GW

I usually stress the importance of patience in dealing with the challenges of FPL, but.... sometimes there is a case for moving swiftly to take advantage of an opportunity - being bold, decisive, trusting your gut.... (Thinking mainly about transfers here, though; and maybe even occasionally taking a 'hit' for one; not about chip play!!)

A helpful trick for picking your Captain

A further, playful follow-up to this morning's post about the dreaded Captaincy conundrum...

As I noted there, you should usually have at least 5 or 6 decent Captaincy candidates to choose from (if your squad's any good!), and - Fate and Luck being what they are - you'll probably quite rarely land on the best one. And you can wear a lot of years off your life fretting about a choice that is essentially impossible.

So, I quite often say to people online that if you're really finding it hard to choose, you should try writing the names of your candidates on Post-It notes, sticking them on a dartboard, and then throwing darts with your eyes closed until you hit one of them. It works as well as anything else.

Now, true, I usually say this somewhat flippantly. But there is a certain magic in this technique. And it is this: it puts you in touch with your intuition, it reveals to you a decision, a preference that had already formed in your subconscious mind, but which you hadn't been aware of (or were fearful to acknowledge).

Much as with a coin-flip, where if the coin lands on the choice you don't really want, you suddenly find yourself saying, "Well, I should do best-of-three on this....!", so too with this expanded 'random decision-making process', you'll immediately recognise if you don't fancy the selection your wayward dart has made for you.... and that will lead you towards recognising the choice that your 'gut' wants you to make.

And for things like this, the 'intuition' is usually much better at evaluating the mutliple variables and making a shrewd selection than the conscious mind is - at least if your intuition is well trained by a lifetime of close watching of football. (See Malcolm Gladwell's book 'Blink' for some interesting case studies on the power of 'spontaneous decision-making'.)

But one final WARNING:  If you ever think your Captaincy Conundrum is down to a binary choice (as many, many folks on the forums often seem to do) - you're almost certainly wrong. (Or you have a very, very poor team!)

Can ANYONE be Captain?

 

Well, in theory, yes.... But in practice, usually NOT.

A little postscript to my post this morning on the trials of selecting your weekly Captain in Fantasy Premier League....

Now, in general, FPL doesn't give regular rewards for anything other than goals. And forwards, of course, tend to score most of the goals. So, you're likely to be better off choosing a forward to be your Captain, right?

Well, yes,..... except that many of the best forwards are in fact classified by the game as 'midfielders'. And many players, even if you might properly consider them as 'midfielders' rather than 'forwards', nevertheless, at least when they're in hot form, may score nearly as often, or even slightly more often, than the best forwards. And midfielders are privileged in the game's scoring system - getting more points than a forward for a goal, often picking up a free additional point for a team clean sheet, and generally being a bit more likely to pick up asssists and bonus points too (and also the newly introduced 'defensive points').

So, most of the time, it makes the most sense to give the Captain's armband to a goalscoring 'midfielder'.

Of course, some 'forwards' (especially the freakish Erling Haaland), when they're in form, do offer a particularly strong prospect of a goal almost every week; and may have a significantly elevated chance of registering a brace or even a hattrick against a favourable opponent. So, they can often be worth considering for the armband, ahead of your best midfielder. (However, it's a bit of a risk. Even Haaland doesn't score in every game; and he sometimes fails to score in games where he's expected to enjoy a landslide. And a midfielder who registers a goal and an assist will usually out-point a forward who notches a brace of goals, so.... midfielders are generally the better way to go. Even when Haaland does score a brace, he's very rarely the 'Player of the Week'!!)

And it also sometimes happens that none of your attacking players, 'midfielders' or 'forwards', have a particularly inviting fixture in a given gameweek, while a few of your defenders are facing teams who are really struggling to score any goals; so, you might occasionally take a chance on a defender getting a clean sheet. Although,... clean sheets are a very precarious thing to trust in for points, they can evaporate so easily (one tired mistake late in the game, one wondergoal out of nowhere, one dubious penalty award....). So, this is only really something you want to gamble on in that rare circumstance where none of your forwards or midfielders looks like a strong prospect for the gameweek. 

Strangely, there seems to be a common superstition against ever giving the armband to a goalkeeper. But in fact, in one of these weeks where the prospects look better for you in defence than attack, a keeper facing a weak opponent is usually a better prospect than a defender, because they can earn additional points for saves as well as the clean-sheet bonus. (In the past, some FPL managers might have been tempted to chase the higher 'points ceiling' from a defender, who might also pick up an attacking return of some sort; but attacking returns for defenders are vanishingly rare, and have been becoming more so in recent years with shifts in the tactics of the game against using full-backs as advanced wide players. Defenders might theoretically be able to earn more points in a match their team is likely to win comfortably; but in practice, the keeper usually does. However, this season the new 'defensive points' will probably even the balance up, giving defenders a much stronger chance of earning 2 extra points in a game; although that doesn't decisively rule keepers out of consideration, because they can often earn 2 or more points for their 'saves' in a game - and, if they make a lot of saves, they tend to be more likely to claim the maximum bonus points as well.)

You have to weigh up a nexus of factors - the regular points potential of your candidate players, their current individual and team form, and the likely difficulty of their fixture - to try to determine the best points prospect for the week. [And use your own judgement on this; don't try to rely on one of those ludicrously bad 'points predictor' apps.]

And YES, it can be anyone, from any position - even (though rarely) the goalkeeper. But 3 or 4 times out of every 5, it should usually be a midfielder.

The Captaincy lottery

 

The question of who to trust with the captain's armband, and the siren prospect of double points, is a weekly torture for the FPL enthusiast, and one that tends to dominate the online forums in the last days before the gameweek deadline.

I actually dislike the 'double points for the Captain' rule - because it is just a further randomizing element in the game, which is something I believe we can do without.

There are a few important things to remember about selecting your Captain for the gameweek: 

a)  No-one KNOWS who's going to get the highest score in any given gameweek. So, it's fruitless to ask other people for suggestions. And the various online 'predictor' services that purport to tell you the 'expected points' for leading players are just guesswork; all the ones I've ever checked out have been laughably haphazard and inaccurate - far less reliable than even my own fallible intuitions.

And....

b)  You're going to be 'WRONG' in your pick more often than you're going to be 'right' - you just have to live with that.  If you have a decently strong team, there are almost always going to be at least 5 ot 6 players in any gameweek who should have a good chance of picking up high points for you. And it is impossible to know for sure which one of those will come up with the highest return. (Also, in many weeks, you'll be surprised by someone else in your squad, outside that core group of most promising picks, - perhaps even someone you left on the Bench! - coming up with a huge return, contrary to all reasonable expectations. Fate is cruel and mischievous, and loves to scoff at our puny efforts to prosper!)

And....

c)  Even if you are fortunate enough to give that armband to the player who comes up with the highest score in your team for the gameweek, he's still quite unlikely to be the 'Player of the Week'.  We so often see the 'Team of the Week' chock-full of randoms: in many, many gameweeks, a bunch of completely unexpected players - that almost no-one would own for FPL - produce higher scores than almost all of the more fancied players. So, that's a further cup of gall you have to sup from, even if you've done 'well' in your armband choice. (For the first half or so of last season, Mo Salah was producing high scores so frequently that he was returning on the captaincy nearly every other game on average - and was the highest scoring player overall in around two-thirds of those. But that is yet another measure of what an utterly freakish season he enjoyed last year; I don't think anyone else in FPL history has ever come close to that! And note, that run didn't quite last all season. And even during the super-hot spell, he was usually outscored by far more by the top player of the week when he had a poor return than he outscored the next best by in his good weeks; so, it was theoretically still possible - though very difficult [this really was the one-in-a-million instance where choosing the same captain every week for a long run of games might have been justified] - to get more captaincy points by consistently betting shrewdly against Salah than by always betting with him.)

Of course, the range of sensible choices for the captaincy each week is somewhat constrained. There are those few exceptional players like Haaland and Salah who produce very high scores more often than any other player - and, when they're playing well, 'blank' much less often than most others. And there are other outstanding players who may get close to those levels of return for shorter spells, when they hit really good form - and/or have particularly favourable-looking fixtures.

Form and fixtures, alas, are not entirely reliable guides to performance. And, as I just noted above, you almost always have at least 5 or 6 good players, who are hopefully in good form.... and facing fairly good fixtures.

But even your Haalands and your Salahs don't always produce a big haul against a 'soft' opponent. And 'form' can evaporate in the blink of an eye. There is really no way to tell who's going to do well or not so well in the coming round of matches. Even the Haalands and the Salahs 'blank' at least 1 game in 3, often more like 1 in 2; the majority of top players blank more like twice in every 3, or sometimes maybe even nearer 3 times in every 4 games.

So.... your captain pick will probably fail to return anything nearly half the time, even if you're doing really well in your selections. And he's only likely to be your best pick about once in every 4-6 games,.... and the top points-returner for the gameweek even more rarely than that.

These are the harsh realities you have to learn to accept. If you allow yourself to expect - or even hope for - a massive haul from your captain every week, you are going to be bitterly disappointed more often than not.

You should be grateful for any kind of return from your captain, even a modest 5 or 6 points (points earned from the gameweek action, before the doubling). If he scores 8-10 points, you should be very, very happy. And a high double-digit score is something that's only going too happen a handful of times a season at best - perhaps only once or twice, perhaps never.

Be realistic about this: selecting your Captain is a cruel lottery - and most of the time, you're going to wind up with a losing ticket!

[I followed this post up with a couple of afterthoughts on how to choose your Captain - here and here.]

Yes, HISTORY can be fun!

 

The excellent DK Falcon doesn't post all that often (about once a month, at best) and tends to cover broader football topics rather than just recent matches or current shifts in tactics. But I always find his videos a good watch, and this latest one is particularly entertaining: a rundown of the more obscure labels for particular player styles/positions - many of which derive from countries other than England, and/or from more distant football eras, but are nevertheless still occasionally part of the current lexicon.

If you ever have nightmares about the possibility of being stumped at your next pub trivia quiz when challenged to explain the meaning of enganche, trequartista, ramdeuter, carillero, volante - then this is a must-watch for you!

Luck-o-Meter - 25-26 Gameweek 4

  

Well, I said yesterday that the week after an international break is always full of surprises, mostly unpleasant; and this is certainly looking like it might be a weekend of oddities - though mostly, perhaps, dull rather than exciting ones. It migth turn out to be one of those rare gameweeks where it would actually have been worth fielding 4 or 5 defenders (if you have the right defenders!), as the first 6 games on Saturday saw only 8 goals - and a remarkable 7 clean sheets! And damn, ultimately only 19 goals from the 10 matches, and 10 clean sheets - one of the lowest-scoring weekends of the Premier League era.

With so little incident of any kind in most of the games, at least the officials haven't been having much opportunity to embarrass themselves: there have been quite a few bad decisions (Simon Hooper once again leading the charge to be crowned 'Worst Referee of the Year'!), but few of them on 'major incidents'.

The ease of Arsenal's win at The Emirates was a little bit of a turn-up. Still without Saka and Saliba, and losing Odegaard again to another injury quite early on, they might have been expected to be given a bit of a test by the very strong Forest side. But the visitors - although still apparently playing in their former system, rather than trying immediately to adapt to Ange-ball - were miles off their usual best, and created very little threat. Nevertheless, the final scoreline was flattering to Arsenal. Eze had looked narrowly but clearly offiside when breaking down the flank to set up the crucial second goal straight after half-time - but was apparently judged by VAR to have been on, by a matter of only millimetres. (And yet again, on the live TV coverage, the definitive computer graphic of the incident was not shared until 7 minutes later! These really ought to be screened immediately; and if that's not possible, this 'semi-automated' technology isn't ready for use yet. There were further question-marks about this call: first, because the freeze-frame chosen for the adjudication was nothing like what the 'naked eye' impression of the incident had been - and thus I have doubts about how reliable the system's timing may be [supposedly determined by an impact sensor inside the ball?]; second, because the margin was so vanishingly narrow that it appeared to depend on where the 'decision line' was drawn on the last defender's sleeve - which raises concerns about the current definition of handball, and also about whether the placing of these lines for offside determinations is done manually or by AI. In general, I favour allowing the attacking team a generous benefit of the doubt, and I don't like to see forwards being called offside for tiny margins. But that's not the system we have at the moment: and under that system,... this called looked wrong.)  And in the closing phase of the game, Elliott Anderson was called back for a non-existent foul was he was breaking clean through on goal 25 yards out. Admittedly, Anderson isn't a guy you'd absolutely rely on to convert a chance like that, and I think they were already 3 down by that point - but it might at least have provided a not undeserved consolation in the game. If one or two things had broken for them earlier on, the momentum could even have swung against Arsenal: early in the second half, they hit the underside of the bar with a looping effort - somewhat fortuiously, as Wood reflexively threw his chest at an unexpected chipped cross from Ndoye out on the right; but it was the one time in the game tha Raya was beaten all ends up, and it was a fraction of an inch from giving them a foothold in the game. This was a major step up for Arsenal from their performances in the first three games, but still hardly stellar; their opponents on his occasion were really rather poor. It's also a measure of how freakish this game was in many respects that one of the shortest players on the pitch nabbed a goal with a header (even he looked surprised; I assume this is the first headed goal he's ever scored!), completing an unlikely brace - that's as many goals as he usually gets in a season!! Strange days, indeed.

Crystal Palace, without Eze, Sarr, or Wharton, predictably failed to create very much, and visitors Sunderland acually looked the bettter side for much of the game, especially in the first-half. Newcomer Yeremy Pino, on his debut, rolled his effort just wide of the post when put in behind early on; but Palace didn't threaten again until they really started pushing for a result in the last 20 minutes or so - during which Sunderland keeper Robin Roefs produced a string of excellent saves to deny them. With Sunderland showing such promising defensive form, Roefs - currently owned only by 1.6%, and probably not regarded as a likely starter by any of those - is starting to look a tempting cheap pick. Glasner felt he should have had a late penalty, but it was obviously an accidental clash: the defender simply hanging his foot up to try to block an attempt to cross the ball and Uche kicking into it with his follow-through.

Everton absolutely dominated Villa, but just couldn't find a way through their packed defence. Their best effort, Keane's flashing header from a Grealish cross was defiantly clawed over the bar by Emi Martinez. Grealish had a good early effort saved too, Beto missed an open goal from a Jake O'Brien cross at the start of the second-half, and Keane put another strong header wide in added-on time; the home side really should have run out very comfortable winners here. It was hard to notice that Ollie Watkins was on the pitch - but that's not really his fault, when there is such a total lack of progression of the ball through the midfield; Villa are now in very deep trouble. (I'd had hopes that Harvey Elliott could turn hings around for them; but he only came on for the last 20 minutes or so here, and wasn't able to get into the game.)  The major controversy/irritation in this game is again the travesty of the BPS; it's so heavily biased in favour of game events which already directly earn points (though it doesn't take much account of the new 'defensive contributions': we are seeing many players who earn extra points under that metric get no love at all in the bonus points allocation) that when a game ends goalless, there's no way anyone other than defenders are getting the extra points. Even though every neutral observer here would have nominated Grealish or Ndiaye way out in front as 'Man of the Match', neither of them figured among the top ten under the BPS ratings! BPS is broken.

A mostly very drab game between Fulham and Leeds (quite possibly an early relegation six-pointer) livened up as the home side began to push harder in the last third of the game, and particularly when new Brazilian left-winger Kevin came on for the final 20 minutes. Prior to that, Darlow's smart save from a fierce Harry Wilson free-kick had been the only fleeting moment of excitement. Kevin also brought a fine finger-tip save from Darlow with a dipping shot from the edge of the box. But it took an own-goal, with Gudmundsson bizarrely heading a corner into his own net - under no pressure, deep into added-on time, from 10 yards out! - to give Fulham a win they hadn't really earned. Gudmundsson is actually one of the most popular cheap defender picks, with an ownership of around 5%; if any of them started him this week, they're going to be feeling particularly abused by Cruel Fate.

The south coast derby between Bournemouth and Brighton was a tight and entertaining game. Brighton were unfortunate to lose both Hinshelwood and De Cuyper early on to injury (and Semenyo should have been booked for the niggly shove on the Belgian left-back that sent him sliding into the advertising hoardings and suffering a heavy blow to his left knee; in fact, the way he was putting himself about in this game, Semenyo was lucky not to pick up two cards and get sent off - perhaps before he had the chance to put Bournemouth back in front with his spot-kick), and then to concede a second goal from a penalty when they were dominating the game. The big surprise in the game, though, was that Kaoru Mitoma scored with a header - when was the last time that happened??

Brentford v Chelsea was the most entertaining of Saturday's encounters, with some thrilling end to end play - though both sides' finishing looked likely to let them down. Chelsea gradually got more and more on top of the game, especially after beginning to introduce reinforcements at the break. Palmer took barely 5 minutes after his introduction early in the second half to register his first goal of the season (and nearly grabbed a second not long after, but was thwarted by a smart stop from Kelleher), and then a pinger from Caicedo seemed to have made the points safe. But then the visiting side gave up a late, late equaliser to a long-throw routine.... because, surprise, surprise, Garnacho couldn't be bothered to do his marking job at the far post (I think that might be the last we see of him for a while). No refereeing controversies in this one; but Damsgaard's late withdrawal due to illness was a blow to some FPL managers, as was the initial omission by Maresca of Cucurella and James (presumably to save their legs for the Munich game on Wednesday; bringing them on in the second half only made things worse for FPL managers, who might have been beginning to eye some decent points on the bench that might be subbed in). The real revelation in this one for me, though, was Brentford forward, Igor Thiago, who had a superb game, and is really starting to look like one of the most tempting budget options up front.

Newcastle v Wolves was the weekend's most exciting game, with plenty of lively attacking play from both sides - although not many clearcut chances to show for it. Newcastle probably should have had a penalty - or at least had the incident properly reviewed by VAR, which appeared not to happen - in the first-half when Mosquera barged Barnes to the floor, and threw his elbow across the side of the forward's neck, right on the edge of the box; very unclear where the key point of contact occurred, but it was certainly a foul - and even that was not given. New boy Woltemade got off the mark with an imperious header, and Tonali nearly doubled the lead a little later when a low drive from 23 yards out cannoned off the base of the right post. In the last half-hour, Wolves were hanging on by their fingernails; but things might have turned out differently for them if they'd been able to capitalise on their bright opening - Rodrigo Gomes, in fact, came within a whisker of scoring an opening goal just seconds after the kick-off. Jose Sa was another last-minute withdrawal due to illness (is Covid circulating again already?), but only 1.7% of FPL managers will have been affected by that; and many of those probably weren't starting him. Less than 0.1% own his replacement Sam Johnstone, who picked up a few saves for a decent 3 points. Vitor Perreira may have had a point in complaining after the game that his team were handicapped by having three of his team shown soft yellow cards in the opening minutes (two of the penalised incidents, in fact, weren't even fouls).

The first half of West Ham v Spurs was so dull that I gave up on the game and went to bed at half-time (late, where I am!). The only first-half incident of note was Romero's early headed goal from a corner being promptly disallowed for a supposed foul on a defender. Admittedly, Romero had put both is hands on Walker-Peters's lower arm, giving him a gentle tug; but the guy had essentially lost balance and tripped over his own feet - Romero's holding was brief and minimal, and not the sort of thing we'd ever have seen penalised in the past. (And if it was Van de Ven being penalised for barging Walker-Peters from behind, that was entirely accidental, and triggered by Van de Ven himself having been shoved in the back by Mateus Fernandes....) This is probably the sole instance this week of a goal arguably wrongly disallowed. Shorly afterwards, Van de Van was blatantly bundled to the ground at a corner, but both the referee, Jarred Gillett, and his VAR team somehow missed a clearcut penalty. Spurs started the second half with much more intent, and West Ham were beginning to crumble even before Soucek's clumsy challenge on Palhinha got him sent off (no arguments about that call: he slashed the guy's sock open at the top of the shin!).

And well, wel, welll - Super Mo continues to come up with a late, late goal (being on penalties is a great help in this case!), despite being fairly little involved in the game. It was a hard blow for Scott Parker's Burnley, who'd done enough to earn the draw: well-organised and combative, they had thwarted Liverpool impressively for well over 90 minutes. It would be unfair to call this another bore-draw, as there was quite a lot of entertaining football in it; But Liverpool just weren't able to find a way through the home side's resolute low block, and there were few major chances: a good effort from distance from Szoboszlai well parried by Dubravka, and then Chiesa getting a free header moments after coming on 20 minutes from the end, but being unable to control the direction of his glancing effort from Gakpo's pacey cross. In fact, Burnley themselves several times caused consternation wih rapid breaks, but didn't have the quality to make anything of any of them. And they were rather lucky to have played most of the match with a full side, because Ugochukwu's horrendous foul on Macallister early on really looked like a sraight red offence (foot high, studs raised, sliding through uncontrolled to make contact above the ankle; could have been a leg-breaker if Macallister's leg had been planted; even so, his toe studs caught in the turf as he tried to lift his foot out of the way and he got his ankle turned over badly - and had to come off at half-time; presumably the referee and VAR deemed the challenge not quite 'violent' enough,... but that was probably the worst call of the weekend so far); he did eventually get sent off, for a second yellow card late in the game - but the match oucome would probably have been very different if he'd been dismissed for that first foul early on. And Arne Slot once again displayed his ruthlessness - and his utter unconcern for FPL managers - in choosing to swap out Milos Kerkez for Andy Robertson after just 37 minutes. You have to be very, very wary in choosing Liverpool players this season; like Pep's City, they are becoming very much at risk of unexpected rotations or early withdrawals. [Isak didn't even make the bench for this one - which should have been no surprise. But an awful lot of over-optimistic FPL managers have owned him since the start of the season, in anticipation of a Liverpool move; and many more piled in for him as soon as the transfer finally went through - although it was very obvious that he would be way off the necessary 'match-fitness' level to be considered for an immediate start. Indeed, just a few days ago Slot affirmed that he might still be weeks away from being able to play a full 90 minutes. More than 10% of managers are carrying him as dead weight on their bench.]

Manchester United, who often manage to rouse themselves to coherence and efficacy for big games, were once again at sixes-and-sevens at the Etihad for the weekend's final game, and might easily have taken a much harder beating (Haaland and Reijnders missing two of the easiest chances of the game). Yoro and Mbeumo were the only bright spots for the visitors, the latter producing their only two moments of real danger - a sweet left-foot volleyed cross-shot which Stretch Armstrong somehow managed to keep out, and a low driven cross from Diallo which cannoned off Mbeumo's shins, going just the wrong side of the near post. It was nice to see Phil Foden return with a lively performance and a goal. And Haaland is looking in very dangerous form; he might easily have had a hattrick here (poking a cross-shot against the inside of the far post, after he'd beaten the keeper). However, there is again just a slight nagging doubt about the officiating on his second goal - a rare instance where the 'decision line' for the offside call is not the last defender (because the whole United team had pushed so far into the opposition half) but the half-way line. Instances like these are very hard to judge with the naked eye, but Haaland looked as if he might have been offside: he was certainly well in the opposition half when he received the ball, and looked to be at least 3 or 4 yards beyond the half-way line when we first saw the ball on its way to him; the actual moment of release from Bernardo Silva's foot was half a second or so earlier, and Haaland appeared to be just crossing the line. Probably he was onside, but it must have been pretty close - and yet again, we were not shown the justificatory graphic to allay our concerns.

The 'global average' has ended up being a surprisingly high 63 points, despite the scarcity of goals this week - presumably driven by a lot of people being on Haaland with his brace, and probably a lot of people also blowing bonus chips again. There's obviously something particularly odd about this gameweek, because almost everyone in my mini-leagues, and most of the best managers that I keep a regular eye on, are below that average this week; some of them, well below! What gives??

The tallying of 'defensive contributions' for potential extra points this year continues to add to the sense of confusion and injustice we almost invariably feel about the bonus point allocations. And I'm still concerned about the often awkwardly long delays in deciding offside calls, (and the frequent failure to share - promptly or at all - the CG picture of the crucial decision-frame), and an ongoing general lack of transparency about how VAR is operating. We've seen probably at least a couple of penalties overlooked this week, the Romero goal harshly disallowed, a straight red card not given to Ugochukwu, and two perhaps dubious non-offside calls (possibly in fact correct decisions; but they must have been quite tight - and we weren't shown the justificatory graphics). The 'Team of the Week' is another oddball miscellany, with Haaland the only player that's very widely owned,, and Semenyo (lucky penalty!), Van de Ven (rare goal!), and Romero (assist, and random max bonus points award!!) being the only other justifiable picks; even Salah got edged out by improbable haulers like Foden, Bergvall, Caicedo, and.... Zubimendi! The refereeing has been - by the miserable standards we've come to expect - acually pretty uncontentious this week. Though some last-minute withdrawals from starting lineups, and the very low number of goals add to he 'luck' factor, I think it's only a 5 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter' this week.

Dilemmas of the Week - Gameweek 4 (25/26)

  

Gameweek 3 (seems a long time ago now, doesn't it?) saw quite a few irksome new injuries, to add to all the other early-season uncertainties of flakey form, less-than-100% fitness, and erratic team selection that so plague us early in the season. Now, we've got to face the further imponderables of possibly disrupted line-ups and evolving tactics because of the flood of new transfers this year. Many players returning from international duty may be a little fatigued, or carrying slight knocks - yet will still turn out for their club this weekend, despite being far below their best. And, of course, there's the perennial hazard in these fixtures that many of the South American players will be rested simply because they've had such a long flight back only a couple of days before the next fixture. Plus, of course, the usual pattern of regular team training and tactical preparation has been interrupted by the two-week international break, so any form we may have thought we'd seen emerging in the opening weeks is now out of the window - and we're effectively starting the season again from scratch. And yet.... some people (rather a lot, by the look of it!) are still playing their Wildcard this week!!!  (Others, even more daft, are tossing away their Free Hit - in what is probably one of the most flakey, topsy-turvy, unpredictable weekends of the whole season - when we just don't have any confidence in exactly who's going to start, let alone who's going to play well.)

I'm trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 4 of the new season?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

William Saliba, who had appeared to pick up a hamstring problem early in the last league game against Liverpool, was apparently just feeling too much discomfort in the ankle he'd sprained slightly in the warm-up (is deliberate misdirection on injuries via play-acting also part of Arteta's policy now?); he has done some training since, and might be straight back in this week. Martin Odegaard should definitely be back, after good performances with Norway this week. Ben White also appears to be fit again; although Jurrien Timber has done so well in his absence that he might not immediately get the start back.

Adam Smith, who'd been looking so good at right-back for Bournemouth so far this season, did pick up a hamstring problem in the last game and will be out for some weeks. That is starting to leave Bournemouth stretched a bit thin at the back, and probably undermines the team's prospects in the next few fixtures.

Liam Delap also pulled a hamstring last time out against Fulham (muscle injuries are especially common early in the season, when players are pushing themselves a bit too hard when not quite fully fit), and is expected to be out for at least 10-12 weeks. Tyrique George or Marc Guiu (hastily recalled from loan at Sunderland) might deputise for him - providing the opportunity of a very cheap starting option for the third forward slot. In brighter news, Cole Palmer rejoined training with Chelsea on Thursday on Friday, and Maresa will make a last-minute decision whether he can be used for the game against Brentford; I'd guess he'll at least get some minutes off the bench.

Adam Wharton (apparently a recurrence of the earlier problem he'd only just recovered from) and Ismaila Sarr also had to withdraw with muscle injuries in the match against Villa - though neither are apparently too serious, and it is hoped they might be back before the end of the month.

Vitaliy Mykolenko, only just back from a lengthy absence, picked up a knock while training with Ukraine and is now a doubt again. So too is talismanic attacker Iliman Ndiaye, who suffered a knock while away with Senegal and will now face a late fitness test.

Leeds's Brazilian goalkeeper, Lucas Perri, has pulled a thigh muscle, and is expected to miss the next two weeks. Karl Darlow will deputise: another 4.0-million starter in that position - although those who've gone for the option of a cheap-but-largely-worthless second keeper are probably more than happy with Martin Dubravka. Forward Joel Piroe is doubtful with a slight calf strain - although it seemed his start might be at risk from Dominic Calvert-Lewin anyway.

Curtis Jones is out for this week, at least, having picked up some sort of knock in the match against Arsenal.

Omar Marmoush injured his knee playing for Egypt this week; it doesn't seem too bad, but no definite word on a recovery timeline yet. John Stones also pulled out of the England squad with a knock - though this might have been just one of those 'avoiding international duty' scams. And Rayan Ait-Nouri has an ankle injury from the Brighton game, is likely to be out for 5 or 6 weeks. With Kovacic and Cherki out fairly long-term, and Gvardiol, Foden, and Savinho only just returning to fitness, City are looking stretched a bit thin: there is even talk of Gundogan getting a start in midfield again - which would, I think, be potentially disastrous, even against such a floundering side as Manchester United.

Matheus Cunha had to come off in the first-half against Burnley with a pulled hamstring that looked quite serious. And Mason Mount withdrew at half-time, apparently with a recurrence of his previous long-term injury - so he might also be out for quite a while. Diogo Dalot pulled a muscle in training with Portugal, so will also be missing for a week or two, Paradoxically, I think the combined effect of these absences might actually be positive. Sesko (who has been a doubt for match-fitness, but just managed two full games for Slovenia, so ought to be OK to at least start) could finally slot into the No. 9 role (which neither Cunha nor Mbeumo like or thrive in), Bruno Fernandes will presumably have to take over the 'joint 10' role from Mount, where he'll be much more effective, Amad Diallo might now get at least a short run of starts at right wing-back, where he can be transformative for the team's attacking options (although the more defensively-minded Mazraoui might be preferred against City), and Ugarte or Mainoo will have to come into central midfield to support the canny but ponderously slow Casemiro - all good. (This is what you get when you make a bunch of glamorous signings who don't really fit your needs: you try to crowbar them in, and unbalance the whole team....)

Yoane Wissa is yet another who picked up an injury while with his national team (I'm surprised he was considered fit for call-up, after keeping himself out of team training this season). Jacob Ramsey, newly signed from Villa, also picked up an injury immediately on arriving at Newcastle. On the plus side, Joelinton might be just about ready to play again, after a few weeks out with a muscle strain; and Eddie Howe has said that their other new forward signing, Nick Woltemade, could be ready to go straight away.

Ola Aina pulled his hamstring playing for Nigeria; unclear yet how serious that is.

Niclas Fullkrug is a doubt for West Ham with a slight calf strain, and Graham Potter has expressed doubts about how many minutes Callum Wilson can handle.

Jorgen Strand Larsen is suffering with a sore Achilles, and could be out for some time.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Oleks Zinchenko is only on loan with Forest, and so ineligible to play against Arsenal this week.

Anthony Gordon is serving the second instalment of a three-match ban.

Several players could be sidelined, or see their minutes considerably reduced, by some of the new transfer window arrivals - most notably Hugo Ekitike and/or Cody Gakpo at Liverpool (and knock-on effects through the rest of the line-up might see increased rotation between Szoboslai, Macallister, and Wirtz too). However, that shouldn't become an issue for a while: Alexander Isak clearly isn't anywhere near match-fit yet, after absenting himself from training all season; and Arne Slot has said that he can't be expected to play 90 minutes for a few weeks yet, at least. I'd be surprised if he even makes the bench this week against Burnley.

Altay Bayindir seems very likely to be replaced in goal at Manchester United by new Belgian signing, Senne Lammens, but perhaps not straight away. (And the much reviled Andre Onana has, of course, left on loan to Trabzonspor in Turkey.) 

With many of the new signings, even where their fitness is not an issue, having arrived close to - or after the start of - the international break, they've had hardly any opportunity yet to train with their new teams, and so probably aren't going to be tactically up-to-speed enough for an immediate start. 

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Manchester City have looked so flakey thus far (even the 'comfortable' win against Wolves wasn't as comfortable as all that; the game might have swung the other way if Wolves had been able to make some of their breakaways count), and are getting so stretched by injuries that I really wouldn't fancy any of their players at the moment.

And with Crystal Palace, you have to worry how they will adapt to the loss of Ebere Eze - particularly with their two next best creative players, Wharton and Sarr, also missing at the moment. If their attacking threat evaporates, their defence is likely to come under much more pressure too - and maybe it won't hold up.

A lot of FPL managers are also panicking about how the ousting of Nuno Espiritu Santo may unsettle Nottingham Forest; and especially about the possibility that his replacement, Ange Postecoglou, will undermine their previous defensive solidity (he did rather get himself the reputation at Spurs of obstinately chasing 4-3 wins....!). The more immediate worries for me are Nikola Milenkovic, who lacks the pace to cope well with maintaining a very high defensive line, as Ange usually likes, and could either get dropped completely, or find himself often having to commit professional fouls to thwart breakaways, and risk yellow or red cards; and also Chris Wood, who's probably too old and slow to lead the vigorous high press that is also a hallmark of Ange's style. Don't say you weren't warned. However, I thnk it's ridiculously over-hasty to be dropping anyone straight away (particularly with Burnley and Sunderland up next as opponents after this week's visit to The Emirates): and players like Sels, Murillo, Aina, and Ndoye might still prove to be decent long-term holds.

And I'm a bit wary of Arsenal at the moment: they've really been pretty unimpressive so far - and with Saka and Havertz out for a while, Odegaard only just back from a short absence with a shoulder injury, White and Saliba slight doubts at the back, Gyokeres still finding his feet, and newly-arrived Eze presumably set to be replacing Martinelli (probably an overall improvement, but nevertheless disruptive in the short term), and three more tricky fixtures up next.... I wouldn't be in a rush to have any of their players for FPL.

West Ham's rather lucky win against an out-of-sorts Forest last time didn't really suggest any major turnaround in form or self-belief; and they'd still be my favourites among the established Premier League clubs to make room for one of the promoted teams to survive this time - and also favourite for an early change of manager.

Manchester United - although I fancy their prospects a little better with the likely changes of lineup forced on them by injuries this week - have looked an absolute mess so far: they have no functional central midfield, can't decide who they want to use as their wing-backs, and their expensive new forward-line just hasn't been clicking at all. I really think Amorim needs to go as soon as possible, to save them from another season of floundering in lower mid-table. Nuno's available!

And although the three promoted sides have all got off to a fairly lively start, and picked up more points than they could have anticipated, none of them have yet done enough to persuade that they're likely to be able to stay up. So, I would avoid-like-the-plague any players from Sunderland, Burnley, or Leeds.... at least for a while longer.

That really narrows the player pool down A LOT. And with so many likely favourite picks - Saka, Palmer, Cunha - out injured, we have to cast the net wide through the more 'fringe' players we might not usually consider.

In gameweeks like this, there is also aways a grave risk that South American international players will be rested, or get only short minutes, because they've had to endure such a very long flight back across the Atlantic - usually only getting back, stiff and jet-lagged, a couple of days before their next Premier League game.

Moreover, the main phase of the Champions League kicks off this week with games over Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday evenings, and it is likely that teams may seek to protect their most important players with limited minutes or a complete rest ahead of those. That's particularly likely for Liverpool (facing Atletico Madrid), Chelsea (v. Bayern Munich), Manchester City (v. Napoli),... and Newcastle (v. Barcelona!!).

We just don't know who's going to start, who's going to get pulled off early, or who's going to play well this week. We'll all be lucky if we have 11 starting players in our squad. It is an utterly, utterly MAD week to be playing a chip in.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Well, an awful lot of players were banging in the goals for fun in the internationals over this past week or so; but most of those fixtures were so unbalanced that that doesn't really count for much.

And Gameweek 3 is a bit too distant now - especially with hardly any club training happening since - to use as a reliable guide. Everton have been looking very good so far, particularly Ndiaye, Grealish, and Dewsbury-Hall. And Dominik Szoboszlai has been outstanding at right-back for Liverpool (he would have been my pick for 'Player of the Month' - though it actually went to Grealish), but might now perhaps be rested (with the likely return to availability of Conor Bradley and Jeremie Frimpong), or be moved back into central midfield, where he might have a more constrained role.

For the rest, we'll just have to wait and see. The week after an international break is impossible to predict, full of surprises (most of them unpleasant!).

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

A little bit of Zen (59)

 

"All problems are important; but some are urgent, and some can wait."

Anonymous spokesman for the Vietnamese Communist government, shortly after Reunification in 1975

This is a somewhat ominous line, since it appears that the official here might have been intending to refer, at least partly, to the problem of internal dissent, and the Party's evolving plans for mass internment in 're-education through labour' camps. (In the first weeks after the fall of Saigon, the feared backlash against anyone associated with the government, military, or civil service of the former South Vietnam seemed not to be materialising, or at least not at anything like the rate or scale that had been widely anticipated. They took a couple of months on their planning before getting around to it....)

The general idea, though, has a broad applicability. A lot of FPL managers rush into drastic remedial action after only two or three 'bad' weeks, or even just one such week. They don't seem to realise how valuable that Wildcard will probably be a little later in the season, how wasteful is its early use (especially right at the start of the season!). They don't realise that it's very common to have a bad start to the season, when there are so many additional unpredictabilities about form and line-ups and results. They don't realise that two or three poor gameweeks back-to-back scarcely even counts as a disappointing 'run' - and that you can have several genuinely disappointing runs in a season, and will in fact be very lucky to get away with having fewer than 3 or 4 such spells. As I said at the end of that earlier post I just linked to: "A Wildcard is for emergencies; a bad Gameweek 1 (or even a bad opening three Gameweeks) is NOT an emergency."

Unless you find yourself in the rare, horrible condition of having made several obviously bad choices in your initial squad, already have several key players who are injured, or not getting the minutes you expected, or are just playing really, really badly (or are stuck in teams which are playing really badly, which is even more frustrating...),... then you should restrict yourself to isolated, 'essential' changes for now, trying to make do with your meagre ration of Free Transfers. And if you feel you really must make more changes than that, try to limit them to one or two, and bite the bullet on accepting the 'hit' - paying the points for the additional transfer(s).  Using the first Wildcard before the end of September (which is still early; only a few weeks after the end of the transfer window and the jarring interruption of the first international break: form and line-ups still haven't fully settled down....) is a sign of desperation, and almost always self-harming. DON'T DO IT - UNLESS YOU ABOLUTELY HAVE TO!!!

[I came across the above quotation last week in Andrea Pitzer's excellent book on the history of concentration camps, One Long Night - a grim read, but an informative and thought-provoking one.]

The rise of THE IDIOCRACY

 

I came upon this fascinating audio-essay the other week, from a Youtube channel called Philosophical Effect. (The narration sounds worryingly as though it might be AI-generated - just rather flat and generic in tone, although at least missing the worst of the usual giveaways like clunking pauses, misplaced emphases, and bizarre mispronunciations.  And I think the text is too sophisticated for even the latest LLM's best effort. Also,.... I don't think AI would want to be warning us about this....!) [Unfortunately, this video seems to have been pulled after a few months. I can't see that there were any likely copyright claims against it; but I fear it might have been a bit too confrontational, and its author might have become disheartened at often vitriolic responses to it - I hope not. Then again, maybe it was just an AI experiment....  I am keeping an eye out for it to reappear one day.]

Like most of the world these days, I spend far too much of my time online (though at least I refuse to succumb to the supposed allure of the 'smartphone'). And that is an increasingly depressing environment. In particular, the FPL forums where I loaf about in many of my off hours are often aggressively narrow-minded, positively belligerent and spiteful towards anyone who dares to challenge any of the generally accepted unwisdoms surrounding the game (yes, that would be me: I found Socrates's gadfly metaphor dangerously inspiring in my childhood).

The above examination of why people naturally find critical thinking so difficult and unpleasant reminded me of this video I found some years ago on the excellent science education channel, Veritasium, about the concept of 'cognitive ease' - how we quickly come to feel such comfort in the familiar that we fiercely resent anything that threatens to disturb this comfort, anything that challenges our preconceived notions, our habitual channels of thought.

As presenter Derek Muller observes at the end here (and isn't this the problem with the FPL forums, and with the online world in general?!): "The more often you hear something, the more it feels like it's true."

That is certainly a prevalent phenomenon in the world of the FPL forums. We see on these webpages so many examples of precepts that are passionately and unquestioningly adopted by FPL managers in their masses, treated as items of Holy Writ: that you always get a better return for your Triple Captain chip in a Double Gameweek, that certain super-premium players like Haaland or Salah are inescapable 'must-have' picks, and that it is impossible to have a successful team without the highest-scoring individual players, that you don't need to spend any money on your Bench, that forwards always make the best captaincy choice, and that it's usually better to play a third forward than a fifth midfielder, or that playing your Bench Boost chip in the opening Gameweek is a worthwhile strategy. All of these propositions are, of course, utterly preposterous, if you give them a moment's thought. But people just refuse to do that; and are furiously resentful of anyone who does.

Which leads me, finally, to this, from the channel Philosophy Coded (yes, I do listen to and read a lot of philosophy; it was an area of study of mine in my younger life, and I have maintained an interest in it ever since), The celebrated German writer and pastor, Dietrich Bonhoeffer, martyred at the end of WWII for his resistance to the Nazis, elaborated a devastating thesis on the power and the danger of wilful mass ignorance, noting despondently that: "Against stupidity, we are defenceless."

As this video says: "When someone shares misinformation that supports their worldview, they are participating in a system that rewards intellectual shortcuts over careful analysis. The algorithm feeds them more of the same, creating 'echo chambers' that act like intellectual quicksand."

And:  "In a world that rewards confident ignorance over humble uncertainty, admitting gaps in your knowledge becomes a radical act."

Maybe I should stay away from those forums....  You can't open a closed mind. But hanging out too long among closed minds may tend to close your own as well....