Luck-o-Meter - 25-26 Gameweek 4

  

Well, I said yesterday that the week after an international break is always full of surprises, mostly unpleasant; and this is certainly looking like it might be a weekend of oddities - though mostly, perhaps, dull rather than exciting ones. It migth turn out to be one of those rare gameweeks where it would actually have been worth fielding 4 or 5 defenders (if you have the right defenders!), as the first 6 games on Saturday saw only 8 goals - and a remarkable 7 clean sheets! And damn, ultimately only 19 goals from the 10 matches, and 10 clean sheets - one of the lowest-scoring weekends of the Premier League era.

With so little incident of any kind in most of the games, at least the officials haven't been having much opportunity to embarrass themselves: there have been quite a few bad decisions (Simon Hooper once again leading the charge to be crowned 'Worst Referee of the Year'!), but few of them on 'major incidents'.

The ease of Arsenal's win at The Emirates was a little bit of a turn-up. Still without Saka and Saliba, and losing Odegaard again to another injury quite early on, they might have been expected to be given a bit of a test by the very strong Forest side. But the visitors - although still apparently playing in their former system, rather than trying immediately to adapt to Ange-ball - were miles off their usual best, and created very little threat. Nevertheless, the final scoreline was flattering to Arsenal. Eze had looked narrowly but clearly offiside when breaking down the flank to set up the crucial second goal straight after half-time - but was apparently judged by VAR to have been on, by a matter of only millimetres. (And yet again, on the live TV coverage, the definitive computer graphic of the incident was not shared until 7 minutes later! These really ought to be screened immediately; and if that's not possible, this 'semi-automated' technology isn't ready for use yet. There were further question-marks about this call: first, because the freeze-frame chosen for the adjudication was nothing like what the 'naked eye' impression of the incident had been - and thus I have doubts about how reliable the system's timing may be [supposedly determined by an impact sensor inside the ball?]; second, because the margin was so vanishingly narrow that it appeared to depend on where the 'decision line' was drawn on the last defender's sleeve - which raises concerns about the current definition of handball, and also about whether the placing of these lines for offside determinations is done manually or by AI. In general, I favour allowing the attacking team a generous benefit of the doubt, and I don't like to see forwards being called offside for tiny margins. But that's not the system we have at the moment: and under that system,... this called looked wrong.)  And in the closing phase of the game, Elliott Anderson was called back for a non-existent foul was he was breaking clean through on goal 25 yards out. Admittedly, Anderson isn't a guy you'd absolutely rely on to convert a chance like that, and I think they were already 3 down by that point - but it might at least have provided a not undeserved consolation in the game. If one or two things had broken for them earlier on, the momentum could even have swung against Arsenal: early in the second half, they hit the underside of the bar with a looping effort - somewhat fortuiously, as Wood reflexively threw his chest at an unexpected chipped cross from Ndoye out on the right; but it was the one time in the game tha Raya was beaten all ends up, and it was a fraction of an inch from giving them a foothold in the game. This was a major step up for Arsenal from their performances in the first three games, but still hardly stellar; their opponents on his occasion were really rather poor. It's also a measure of how freakish this game was in many respects that one of the shortest players on the pitch nabbed a goal with a header (even he looked surprised; I assume this is the first headed goal he's ever scored!), completing an unlikely brace - that's as many goals as he usually gets in a season!! Strange days, indeed.

Crystal Palace, without Eze, Sarr, or Wharton, predictably failed to create very much, and visitors Sunderland acually looked the bettter side for much of the game, especially in the first-half. Newcomer Yeremy Pino, on his debut, rolled his effort just wide of the post when put in behind early on; but Palace didn't threaten again until they really started pushing for a result in the last 20 minutes or so - during which Sunderland keeper Robin Roefs produced a string of excellent saves to deny them. With Sunderland showing such promising defensive form, Roefs - currently owned only by 1.6%, and probably not regarded as a likely starter by any of those - is starting to look a tempting cheap pick. Glasner felt he should have had a late penalty, but it was obviously an accidental clash: the defender simply hanging his foot up to try to block an attempt to cross the ball and Uche kicking into it with his follow-through.

Everton absolutely dominated Villa, but just couldn't find a way through their packed defence. Their best effort, Keane's flashing header from a Grealish cross was defiantly clawed over the bar by Emi Martinez. Grealish had a good early effort saved too, Beto missed an open goal from a Jake O'Brien cross at the start of the second-half, and Keane put another strong header wide in added-on time; the home side really should have run out very comfortable winners here. It was hard to notice that Ollie Watkins was on the pitch - but that's not really his fault, when there is such a total lack of progression of the ball through the midfield; Villa are now in very deep trouble. (I'd had hopes that Harvey Elliott could turn hings around for them; but he only came on for the last 20 minutes or so here, and wasn't able to get into the game.)  The major controversy/irritation in this game is again the travesty of the BPS; it's so heavily biased in favour of game events which already directly earn points (though it doesn't take much account of the new 'defensive contributions': we are seeing many players who earn extra points under that metric get no love at all in the bonus points allocation) that when a game ends goalless, there's no way anyone other than defenders are getting the extra points. Even though every neutral observer here would have nominated Grealish or Ndiaye way out in front as 'Man of the Match', neither of them figured among the top ten under the BPS ratings! BPS is broken.

A mostly very drab game between Fulham and Leeds (quite possibly an early relegation six-pointer) livened up as the home side began to push harder in the last third of the game, and particularly when new Brazilian left-winger Kevin came on for the final 20 minutes. Prior to that, Darlow's smart save from a fierce Harry Wilson free-kick had been the only fleeting moment of excitement. Kevin also brought a fine finger-tip save from Darlow with a dipping shot from the edge of the box. But it took an own-goal, with Gudmundsson bizarrely heading a corner into his own net - under no pressure, deep into added-on time, from 10 yards out! - to give Fulham a win they hadn't really earned. Gudmundsson is actually one of the most popular cheap defender picks, with an ownership of around 5%; if any of them started him this week, they're going to be feeling particularly abused by Cruel Fate.

The south coast derby between Bournemouth and Brighton was a tight and entertaining game. Brighton were unfortunate to lose both Hinshelwood and De Cuyper early on to injury (and Semenyo should have been booked for the niggly shove on the Belgian left-back that sent him sliding into the advertising hoardings and suffering a heavy blow to his left knee; in fact, the way he was putting himself about in this game, Semenyo was lucky not to pick up two cards and get sent off - perhaps before he had the chance to put Bournemouth back in front with his spot-kick), and then to concede a second goal from a penalty when they were dominating the game. The big surprise in the game, though, was that Kaoru Mitoma scored with a header - when was the last time that happened??

Brentford v Chelsea was the most entertaining of Saturday's encounters, with some thrilling end to end play - though both sides' finishing looked likely to let them down. Chelsea gradually got more and more on top of the game, especially after beginning to introduce reinforcements at the break. Palmer took barely 5 minutes after his introduction early in the second half to register his first goal of the season (and nearly grabbed a second not long after, but was thwarted by a smart stop from Kelleher), and then a pinger from Caicedo seemed to have made the points safe. But then the visiting side gave up a late, late equaliser to a long-throw routine.... because, surprise, surprise, Garnacho couldn't be bothered to do his marking job at the far post (I think that might be the last we see of him for a while). No refereeing controversies in this one; but Damsgaard's late withdrawal due to illness was a blow to some FPL managers, as was the initial omission by Maresca of Cucurella and James (presumably to save their legs for the Munich game on Wednesday; bringing them on in the second half only made things worse for FPL managers, who might have been beginning to eye some decent points on the bench that might be subbed in). The real revelation in this one for me, though, was Brentford forward, Igor Thiago, who had a superb game, and is really starting to look like one of the most tempting budget options up front.

Newcastle v Wolves was the weekend's most exciting game, with plenty of lively attacking play from both sides - although not many clearcut chances to show for it. Newcastle probably should have had a penalty - or at least had the incident properly reviewed by VAR, which appeared not to happen - in the first-half when Mosquera barged Barnes to the floor, and threw his elbow across the side of the forward's neck, right on the edge of the box; very unclear where the key point of contact occurred, but it was certainly a foul - and even that was not given. New boy Woltemade got off the mark with an imperious header, and Tonali nearly doubled the lead a little later when a low drive from 23 yards out cannoned off the base of the right post. In the last half-hour, Wolves were hanging on by their fingernails; but things might have turned out differently for them if they'd been able to capitalise on their bright opening - Rodrigo Gomes, in fact, came within a whisker of scoring an opening goal just seconds after the kick-off. Jose Sa was another last-minute withdrawal due to illness (is Covid circulating again already?), but only 1.7% of FPL managers will have been affected by that; and many of those probably weren't starting him. Less than 0.1% own his replacement Sam Johnstone, who picked up a few saves for a decent 3 points. Vitor Perreira may have had a point in complaining after the game that his team were handicapped by having three of his team shown soft yellow cards in the opening minutes (two of the penalised incidents, in fact, weren't even fouls).

The first half of West Ham v Spurs was so dull that I gave up on the game and went to bed at half-time (late, where I am!). The only first-half incident of note was Romero's early headed goal from a corner being promptly disallowed for a supposed foul on a defender. Admittedly, Romero had put both is hands on Walker-Peters's lower arm, giving him a gentle tug; but the guy had essentially lost balance and tripped over his own feet - Romero's holding was brief and minimal, and not the sort of thing we'd ever have seen penalised in the past. (And if it was Van de Ven being penalised for barging Walker-Peters from behind, that was entirely accidental, and triggered by Van de Ven himself having been shoved in the back by Mateus Fernandes....) This is probably the sole instance this week of a goal arguably wrongly disallowed. Shorly afterwards, Van de Van was blatantly bundled to the ground at a corner, but both the referee, Jarred Gillett, and his VAR team somehow missed a clearcut penalty. Spurs started the second half with much more intent, and West Ham were beginning to crumble even before Soucek's clumsy challenge on Palhinha got him sent off (no arguments about that call: he slashed the guy's sock open at the top of the shin!).

And well, wel, welll - Super Mo continues to come up with a late, late goal (being on penalties is a great help in this case!), despite being fairly little involved in the game. It was a hard blow for Scott Parker's Burnley, who'd done enough to earn the draw: well-organised and combative, they had thwarted Liverpool impressively for well over 90 minutes. It would be unfair to call this another bore-draw, as there was quite a lot of entertaining football in it; But Liverpool just weren't able to find a way through the home side's resolute low block, and there were few major chances: a good effort from distance from Szoboszlai well parried by Dubravka, and then Chiesa getting a free header moments after coming on 20 minutes from the end, but being unable to control the direction of his glancing effort from Gakpo's pacey cross. In fact, Burnley themselves several times caused consternation wih rapid breaks, but didn't have the quality to make anything of any of them. And they were rather lucky to have played most of the match with a full side, because Ugochukwu's horrendous foul on Macallister early on really looked like a sraight red offence (foot high, studs raised, sliding through uncontrolled to make contact above the ankle; could have been a leg-breaker if Macallister's leg had been planted; even so, his toe studs caught in the turf as he tried to lift his foot out of the way and he got his ankle turned over badly - and had to come off at half-time; presumably the referee and VAR deemed the challenge not quite 'violent' enough,... but that was probably the worst call of the weekend so far); he did eventually get sent off, for a second yellow card late in the game - but the match oucome would probably have been very different if he'd been dismissed for that first foul early on. And Arne Slot once again displayed his ruthlessness - and his utter unconcern for FPL managers - in choosing to swap out Milos Kerkez for Andy Robertson after just 37 minutes. You have to be very, very wary in choosing Liverpool players this season; like Pep's City, they are becoming very much at risk of unexpected rotations or early withdrawals. [Isak didn't even make the bench for this one - which should have been no surprise. But an awful lot of over-optimistic FPL managers have owned him since the start of the season, in anticipation of a Liverpool move; and many more piled in for him as soon as the transfer finally went through - although it was very obvious that he would be way off the necessary 'match-fitness' level to be considered for an immediate start. Indeed, just a few days ago Slot affirmed that he might still be weeks away from being able to play a full 90 minutes. More than 10% of managers are carrying him as dead weight on their bench.]

Manchester United, who often manage to rouse themselves to coherence and efficacy for big games, were once again at sixes-and-sevens at the Etihad for the weekend's final game, and might easily have taken a much harder beating (Haaland and Reijnders missing two of the easiest chances of the game). Yoro and Mbeumo were the only bright spots for the visitors, the latter producing their only two moments of real danger - a sweet left-foot volleyed cross-shot which Stretch Armstrong somehow managed to keep out, and a low driven cross from Diallo which cannoned off Mbeumo's shins, going just the wrong side of the near post. It was nice to see Phil Foden return with a lively performance and a goal. And Haaland is looking in very dangerous form; he might easily have had a hattrick here (poking a cross-shot against the inside of the far post, after he'd beaten the keeper). However, there is again just a slight nagging doubt about the officiating on his second goal - a rare instance where the 'decision line' for the offside call is not the last defender (because the whole United team had pushed so far into the opposition half) but the half-way line. Instances like these are very hard to judge with the naked eye, but Haaland looked as if he might have been offside: he was certainly well in the opposition half when he received the ball, and looked to be at least 3 or 4 yards beyond the half-way line when we first saw the ball on its way to him; the actual moment of release from Bernardo Silva's foot was half a second or so earlier, and Haaland appeared to be just crossing the line. Probably he was onside, but it must have been pretty close - and yet again, we were not shown the justificatory graphic to allay our concerns.

The 'global average' has ended up being a surprisingly high 63 points, despite the scarcity of goals this week - presumably driven by a lot of people being on Haaland with his brace, and probably a lot of people also blowing bonus chips again. There's obviously something particularly odd about this gameweek, because almost everyone in my mini-leagues, and most of the best managers that I keep a regular eye on, are below that average this week; some of them, well below! What gives??

The tallying of 'defensive contributions' for potential extra points this year continues to add to the sense of confusion and injustice we almost invariably feel about the bonus point allocations. And I'm still concerned about the often awkwardly long delays in deciding offside calls, (and the frequent failure to share - promptly or at all - the CG picture of the crucial decision-frame), and an ongoing general lack of transparency about how VAR is operating. We've seen probably at least a couple of penalties overlooked this week, the Romero goal harshly disallowed, a straight red card not given to Ugochukwu, and two perhaps dubious non-offside calls (possibly in fact correct decisions; but they must have been quite tight - and we weren't shown the justificatory graphics). The 'Team of the Week' is another oddball miscellany, with Haaland the only player that's very widely owned,, and Semenyo (lucky penalty!), Van de Ven (rare goal!), and Romero (assist, and random max bonus points award!!) being the only other justifiable picks; even Salah got edged out by improbable haulers like Foden, Bergvall, Caicedo, and.... Zubimendi! The refereeing has been - by the miserable standards we've come to expect - acually pretty uncontentious this week. Though some last-minute withdrawals from starting lineups, and the very low number of goals add to he 'luck' factor, I think it's only a 5 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter' this week.