Luck-o-Meter (23)

 

Darn - this is looking like it could be another weekend where the match outcomes and performances provide most of the surprises, rather than dodgy refereeing. That can't be a bad thing. But it doesn't mean there's no luck at play in unexpectedly skewing the FPL points returns - it's just a different kind of 'luck'!

We've seen Bournemouth on a strongly improving trend for some time now, and after their commanding victory over Newcastle last week, we'd expect their confidence to have been sky-high for this home fixture against high-flying Nottingham Forest. But the comprehensiveness of their eventual win must surely count as the weekend's biggest surprise (among many!). Forest have rarely given up a chance to anyone over the last few months, but they were somehow lacking their usual spark here - and Chris Wood, in particular, was strangely anonymous. Yet they still weren't terrible: the match was very evenly balanced for a long time, with only Justin Kluivert's early screamer separating the two sides for nearly an hour. But once Dango Ouattara headed home the second, the visitors started to fall apart, and Bournemouth appeared to be able to score at will, might have been able to rack up even more of a landslide win. Ouattara was unfortunate to miss out on being the first player this season to notch 4 goals in a game, when his finish to the game's slickest team move was ruled out - correctly - for a narrow offside. [I am somewhat embarrassed by the sudden extravagant 'success' of my prediction a couple of weeks back that Ouattara was 'one to watch', as he seemed likely to inherit the No. 9 mantle at the club.]

Brighton's rather tepid performance might not have deserved a win against Everton's stubborn defence, but they were extremely unfortunate to lose this one, the visitors really not producing a decent effort on goal, apart from the weird - and very soft - penalty. On replays, Joel Veltman did appear to deliberately bat the ball away with his hand; but that would have been a very bizarre thing to do, and it is also possible that the touch was just accidental, as he was falling forwards out of control and trying to twist his body to land on his side rather than his front. Given how extremely reluctant VAR has usually been this season to intervene on violent fouls, it is especially difficult to see how this incident meets the threshold criterion of being a 'clear and obvious error' by the referee initially. There may also be an issue of whether Veltman himself had been fouled by Beto, who did appear to have run across him, from slightly behind, causing him to lose balance and pitch forward when he had been an easy favourite to claim the ball; this aspect of the situation does not seem to have been addressed at all (either by the match officials or TV pundits!). It was a very solid display by Everton, especially as the loss of Mangala with a knee injury with some 15 minutes still to be played brought them down to 10 men. However, Everton fans who claim they knew "they were always going to win this one" are being delusional: this was one of the luckiest wins of the season, and competely against the form book.

Liverpool got a predictably comfortable win over Ipswich at Anfield, without ever really needing to get out of second gear. FPL managers who gambled their Triple Captain chip on Mo Salah this week will be disappointed that he contributed just the one goal (and was perhaps rather lucky to receive 1 bonus point in addition); and those who own Trent Alexander-Arnold will be miffed that Liverpool gave up a late consolation goal from a corner, and that a thunderous drive of his own late in the game smashed harmlessly against the woodwork - he very nearly got a massive score this week, but it was not to be. MeKenna's men at least showed a lot more pluck and cohesion than they did last week in capitulating to City; they hung in quite impressively during the second half, and might feel a bit unfortunate to have ended up shipping 4 goals. However, Julio Enciso's being spared a sending-off for his horrific challenge on Endo must be the worst decision of the week - and perhaps the worst red card decision of the entire season. (I mention below Lewis-Skelly's incorrect sending-off against Wolves as one of the worst decisions of the season. But I usually write these summaries in the order the games are shown on BBC's 'Match of the Day'. This was far, far worse.)  You cannot safely challenge for a ball that is bouncing high, only inches in front of an opponent's chest. And he had no chance of getting his raised foot on the ball anyway; he was just running and jumping into his opponent with his leg coming up miles off the floor - and unsurprisingly ended up whacking the guy in the side of the face with his knee. It was the kind of foul that could easily have caused a very serious injury, even a fatality (I am frankly surprised and appalled that the injured player was not withdrawn under 'concussion protocols'; he cannot not have been concussed to some extent by an impact like that.)  And since there was no conceivable footballing justification for charging into his opponent like that, it did look very much like an act of deliberate thuggery, a wilful attempt to hurt an opponent. I hope the FA can look at this again, and impose a retrospective ban. I like Enciso's skills as a player, but he deserves to be out of the game for a long time for a challenge like that. And yet again, you have to ask what on earth VAR was doing; if the referee somehow missed how dangerous the collision was, he should have been sent to the pitchside monitor.

Newcastle still aren't looking quite at their best, but were massively improved over last week's listless performance against Bournemouth. Despite giving up an early lead to Jan Bednarek's header by forgetting to defend a corner properly, they ultimately came through about as comfortably as you'd expect against 'already relegated' Southampton; although they did have another scare when Matheus Fernandes's late breakaway goal was just offside. And Isak owners will no doubt be aggrieved that he didn't quite manage a hattrick; he had chances to add a third. At least VAR was doing its job this time, directing the referee to take another look when he somehow missed Aribo stamping on Isak's foot for the equalising penalty.

I have in the past been rather critical about Arteta's frequent whingeing about decisions, but dear, oh dear, he's really got a case this season: how many more ridiculously unjust red cards can Arsenal suffer in one year? While I don't like cynical fouls like Lewis-Skelly's, it was clearly a trip rather than a kick; he may have scraped his studs down the side of his victim's leg a bit, but it wasn't that high and there was no force behind it; and of course, deep in the opposition half, with two of his defensive colleagues well ahead of the ball, there was absolutely no question of it yet being "a clear goalscoring opportunity". It is baffling how such an experienced referee as Michael Oliver could make such a stupid, obviously wrong decision, and how the VAR officials continue to lack the balls to ever point that their onfield colleague has been sillly, even when the error is quite gross and unmistakable. That was one of the very worst decisions we've seen this season - and there have been some very, very bad ones. Hopefully, the FA will see sense, and immediately overturn it.

One might question some of Arteta's selection decisions for this one. Obviously, the late withdrawal of Martin Odegaard with an illness was a major disruption to the gameplan - but why would you replace him with the teenager Nwaneri, inexperienced, only just making his way back from an injury, and not a central midfielder.... when options like Merino or Jorginho are available?? Why rush Lewis-Skelly and Saliba straight back into the lineup after injury worries... when Kiwior and Calafiori appear to be fit to play?? (This looks again like the stifling over-reliance on favourite players that I criticised a few weeks back. primarily in reference to Pep, but noted as also sadly applicable to Mikel.)  Even before the ridiculous sending-off, Arsenal had looked miles off it, and Wolves had had the better of most of the early exchanges. Curiously, they lost momentum after the break, when Arsenal reorganised with 10 men. Nevertheless, Arsenal were quite lucky to suvive a couple of scares, when Cunha's one decent effort of the match was fingertipped away by Raya (and he then couldn't get a follow-up attempt from the subsequent corner on target...), and then Ait-Nouri's late solo breakaway brought another good save from the Arsenal keeper. Joao Gomes's rash foul to earn a second yellow card gifted Arsenal a way back into the game late on. Really, despite the injustice of their own red card, they should have been grateful to limp away from this messy match with a draw.

City and their fans will no doubt get a big lift in confidence from an ultimately comfortable win against one of their leading rivals; but to me this result really looked to be more down to Chelsea being rather poor than City being particularly good. The visitors dominated in the first 15-20 minutes, and as Maresca said afterwards, if they'd managed to get a second goal in that period (they had some good chances, particularly when Palmer and Jackson broke clear in behind, but Palmer - most uncharacteristically - very slightly overplayed the final square ball to put Jackson in on an open goal, allowing keeper and defender a chance to recover), the match would probably have turned out very differently. They really should have been able to exploit the debutant nerves of the young Uzbek defender Khusanov, who looked absolutely shell-shocked for a while after his horrible error gifted Chelsea a 10th-minute lead, and who seemed likely to make a mistake every time he got on the ball for some while afterwards. It was perhaps a sign of desperation from Pep that he threw his two new signings straight into the fray, despite having had very little time to work with them in training (and Pep having apparently acknowledged that Khusanov's inability to understand much English is a serious obstacle to onboarding him); the flakey Uzbek got pulled before the hour, and the pacey Egyptian forward Marmoush kept wasting good attacking opportunities by getting caught offside (and not by small amounts either: it's very rare in the modern game to see players regularly being off by half-a-yard or a yard - but he was). It was rather ominous, I felt, that Pep himself still did not seem to think this team or this performance were very good, sombrely noting in his post-match interview, "Without the ball.... we are one of the worst teams. We need the ball to survive."  Moreover, I felt City's goals were all somewhat lucky: to me, Nunes looked slightly offside when he broke away to create the equaliser just before half-time; and Foden might have been - very, very narrowly - for the late third; but neither of these moves appeared to get a VAR check (WTF???). And the crucial second goal would not have happened if Maresca were not persisting with the hapless Robert Sanchez in goal: his appalling error of judgement (actually, two or three errors in quick succession) gifted City the decisive momentum in the match. I would also question the selection of Reece James: presumably he is favoured for his attacking abilities, but his inclusion seems to unbalance what had been looking a nicely settled side, and defensively he looked very poor yesterday (probably still not yet fully match-fit?).

The Palace v Brentford game looked as if the players were inhibited by the miserable conditions, relentless freezing rain taking the edge off their usual energy and inventiveness. Brentford got a bit lucky with the penalty that finally put them ahead - Lacroix's initial 'foul' being highly dubious (it was silly to raise his foot that high, but the contact on the attacker's shin was so slight as to be almost non-existent; in a physical game, not every leg-on-leg contact should be seen as an offence), and then with Mbeumo being given a second crack at the kick after Guehi had foolishly encroached into the penalty area as he lashed his first effort against the foot of the left post - and then didn't respond to the rebound, allowing a Palace defender (Richards, was it?) to nip ahead of him and clear the ball. (There was an additional penalty appeal for handball against Will Hughes, which was rendered moot because the penalty 'foul' occurred only a few moments later - though, strictly speaking, both incidents should have been considered, and it should have been made clear which one the penalty was being awarded for. I feel a decision against Hughes would have been even harsher; he was instinctively raising his hands to protect his face when his own player - Guehi - lashed the ball at him from less than 2 yards away: a perfectly 'natural position' in those circumstances, and absolutely nothing he could do about it.)  Recently 'hot' Mateta didn't have much impact on the game - just one good early shot, well parried away by Flekken; Eze, similarly, didn't manage to impose himself much, and his only notable contribution was wasting two free-kicks in very promising positions (although one of them at least glanced off the outside of the far post after taking a big deflection off the wall). A good Palace move producing a late goal for substitute Esse made the closing minutes a bit tense for the visiting team, but there had never really been much doubt that Brentford deserved to win the game - and they very nearly grabbed a third at the death when Wissa's header across the box towards an inrushing Mbeumo was clumsily deflected against the post by a Palace defender and somehow slithered away to safety rather than rebounding into Mbeumo's path.

West Ham are another bottom-end club who look as if they might be recovering some cohesion and confidence under a new manager. Although Villa started brightly, with Ramsey giving them the early lead from a fine team move, and Watkins putting a header just wide a little later, a post-Champions League drop in stamina again seemed to be an issue for them, and they let the visiting team gain all the momentum in the second half. The much-fancied Morgan Rogers was particularly anonymous in this one; it was possible to be unaware that he was even on the pitch for long periods (he had a BPS score of ZERO!). West Ham were ultimately well worth their draw, unfortunate, in fact, not to have claimed the win: Paqueta lashed a good chance wide early in the second half, Carlos Soler had an effort from an acute angle (after a cross had been uncharacterstically spilled by Emi Martinez) brilliantly cleared off the line by Konsa, substitute Danny Ings was only a whisker wide with a strong drive from outside the box late in the game, and an apparent late winner (after yet another error by Martinez!) was invalidated by Soucek being offside when be pounced on the loose ball spilled by the keeper. Villa, however, can feel rightly aggrieved that Alvarez was allowed to stay on the pitch after be blatantly body-checked Kamara: there is no way that can not be a yellow card offence - and it would have been his second of the game. This is yet another instance where we see the folly of not allowing VAR interventions on second-yellow incidents. (And he should have had another mandatory yellow in the first half for kicking the ball away after the referee wrongly penalised a tackle of his - he was really riding his luck in this game!)  However, Lucas Digne was also lucky not to be expelled for jabbing his elbow in an opponent's chest while jostling for position in a line defending a free-kick; there wasn't much force in it, but there was clearly aggressive intent; it was a wanton act of petulance - deserving of a red. VAR had a long hard look at it, but then - surprise, surprise! - did nothing.

Leicester also appear to be finally finding some defensive solidity - but it was only against Spurs. And they needed their back-up goalkeeper Jakub Stolarczyk to be at his sharpest during the home side's occasional bright spells. Not much of controversy - or interest - though in this scrappy bottom-of-the-table clash; the onlly 'luck' involved being Ange Postecoglou's still hanging on to his job (presumably only because at least he's still in two cup competitions... and they might find it difficult to find a decent replacement before the end of the season; there are apparently some rumours now that Erik ten Hag might be under consideration - but Spurs fans surely wouldn't stomach the humiliation of taking on a Manchester United reject... again).

With Fulham and United both mired in a midseason slump, it was fairly inevitable that their game at The Cottage would be a lifeless borefest - the last game on 'Match of the Day' that only diehard fans of the two clubs will bother to stay up for. Lisandro Martinez's decider needed the help of a huge deflection off a defender on the edge of the box... and even so, Leno probably should have been able to tip it over. Fernandes a little later reminded everyone about the value of the 'draft-excluder' by fizzing a free-kick under the wall and into the near side-netting. United, alas, were so shakey in all areas of the pitch, they let Fulham progressively back into the game, and had to endure an uncomfortable period of sustained pressure from the home side at the end; substitute Tom Collyer had to make a brilliant headed clearance off his goalline to preserve the frail lead. But then, deep in added-on time, United appeared to have got a second goal they didn't really deserve, with another brilliant solo effort from Amad Diallo - which was ruled out by one of those offside calls so close that even when they show you the supposed 'decisive' still-frame - with the 'lines' drawn in - it still doesn't look offiside! Extremely galling for the 23.5% of FPL managers that now own him!! Ruben Amorim, meanwhile, cemented his place in the disfavour of FPL fans for yanking Rasmus Hojlund off in the 58th minute. Almost no-one owns Hojlund (just over 1.% - which I find surprisingly many!), but it's the readiness to use substitutions short of the crucial hour-mark which alarms us.

Only 2 mildly contentious (probably correct, but certainly very arguable) penalty decisions this week, but 3 absolutely awful red card decisions, and another highly questionable one, with Lewis-Skelly wrongly sent off for a trivial foul, but Enciso given only a wrist-slap for a horrific foul on Wataru Endo that should have seen him banned for a long time, while West Ham's Alvarez somehow received only one yellow card for three inescapably bookable offences.... and Digne was very fortunate to be let off for irritably jabbing his elbow into an opponent's ribcage. There were also a few goals denied by very tight offside calls (I still can't see how Diallo was judged to be offside)... and a few more (two in the City game; go figure!) allowed without any apparent VAR check of a possible offside. There has been a slight trend towards better refereeing overall in the last month or so, but this weekend felt like a bit of a step backwards again.

And then, oh my god, the results: Liverpool, Newcastle, Villa and Brighton somehow fail to keep clean sheets against bottom-of-the-table clubs - Brighton actually lose, and Villa very nearly do! City beat Chelsea surprisingly easily, without actually playing well. And Forest, lately the best defence in the league, suddenly forgot how to defend and suffered an absolute spanking??  Only Manchester United and Brentford managed to bring home the expected result of a drab, narrow win - everything else this week was a bit of a freak-show. In GW23's 'Team of the Week', there are 5 or 6 players that just about nobody owns; while major favourites like Salah, Palmer, Mbeumo and Gordon all missed out. 

On balance, I think that makes this week about an 8 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'. There weren't that many outstnding moments of skill or bizarre incidents during the play (apart from a bunch of goals from defenders again!), but many of the results were a little - or a lot - of a surprise, and there was yet again some really dire work by referees and VAR officials.

And DON'T FORGET The Boycott.  That damned new chip is in play now. So, I urge you all to quit the game in protest as soon as possible, ideally during the coming week; or at least commit to refusing to use the Assistant Manager chip, and criticise and complain about it online as much as possible.

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Dilemmas of the Week - GW23

 

Well, at least we don't seem to have many - well, not that many - new injuries from the penultimate round of Champions League and Europa League games this week. 

Of course, injury news often breaks late, on Friday afternoon or even Saturday morning. So, I'll endeavour to update if anything else important emerges.

Still not much action in the transfer window, although Egyptian forward Omar Marmoush's move from Eintracht Frankfurt to Manchester City has been confirmed, and he is priced in FPL at 7.0 million.  (Villa's Donyell Malen, strangedly unnpriced last week, has now been entered in the FPL rolls at 5.5 million. I'm rather more excited about his possibilities in the game.)  And it looks as though Ipswich are committing to making a serious fight of it in the second half of their season, having brought in Ben Godfrey, Jaden Philogene, and Julio Enciso on loan.

Nevertheless, there's still a week of the window left, and most of the action - if there's going to be some - typically happens very late in the day. Thus, I will still continue to warn - Cassandra-like - that this month (and probably next month too,) is a very bad time to play the 2nd Wildcard. - even though the looming Double Gameweek (for Everton and Liverpool) next week is tempting a lot of people to do so. (It's going to be so much more valuable to drop it before the fairly big DGW at the end of season, if you can hang on to it that long.)

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 23?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Arsenal's young full-back Myles Lewis-Skelly missed their game against Zagreb the other night after complaining of some muscle tightness in training. Zinchenko is therefore likely to start at left-back. (Ben White might be available again soon, but not quite yet.)  William Saliba, whose possible absence last week was a very late-breaking 'rumour' on Saturday morning but did indeed miss out, apparently felt a hamstring strain in training; Arteta thinks 'not serious', but he's going to be missing at least this week, and possibly next. (Since the experiment of playing Partey at right-back and Timber in the centre didn't work out at all well last week, I'd expect Timber to stay on the right this time and Kiwior to come in for Saliba.)

Amadou Onana had to come off in the match against Arsenal last week with what looks as though it could be quite a serious hamstring injury.

Brighton's Matt O'Riley missed the last game against Manchester United because of a painful knock on the knee suffered in training, but could be available again now.

Enzo Fernandez and Romeo Lavia likewise missed last week because of last-minute training knocks, but Maresca thinks they should both be OK this week.

Diogo Jota  suffered yet another muscle injury just before the Brentford game, and has now been ruled out for 'weeks'. And Curtis Jones is another who was troubled by 'muscle tightness' and dropped out at half-time in the midweek game against Lille, now seems unlikely to be able to play this weekend.

Ruben Dias and Jeremy Doku also both picked up muscle problems in the midweek defeat to PSG (Dias being withdrawn at half-time; perhaps having been rushed back into first-team starts from his last injury a little too quickly?).

United's Matthijs de Ligt is yet another who had to come off in a European game last night with 'muscle tightness'; might shake it off, but will Amorim want to take the chance - if he's got anyone else fit to play? Noussair Mazraoui was missing from the squad for that one because of a training ground knock (meaning that Dalot had to be switched back to the left flank, and Diallo was withdrawn into the right wing-back role; not ideal for his FPL points prospects); but that was described as only a precautionary rest, so he should be involved again this weekend.

Aaron Ramsdale is struggling with some kind of 'torso injury' (bruised ribs from last weekend's game?), and Juric describes him as a 'doubt'.

Yves Bissouma and Brennan Johnson were ruled out last week, by a training ground knock and a very sore calf respectively, and were missing again against Hoffenheim this week; Bissouma is still a doubt for this weekend, and Johnson now seems likely to miss at least a few weeks. Pape Sarr also missed the midweek game, after suffering a knock in Sunday's game against Everton, and young full-back Djed Spence was complaining of being sore after that game, but both should be OK again now. In better news for Spurs, nothing has been found seriously amiss with Rodrigo Betancur after his mysterious on-pitch collapse in the League Cup game against Liverpool a fortnight ago; he was able to play the full game against Hoffenheim, and is expected to start against Leicester too.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

What do you know: NO suspensions or loan-agreement exclusions this week - that's a first! Oh, no, wait: too good to be true.... I'd forgotten about West Ham defender Konstantinos Mavropanos picking up two yellow cards against Palace; he'll be serving a one-match ban. With Todibo still struggling with a knock picked up in the City game three weeks ago and Zouma loaned out to the Saudi league, West Ham could be dangerously short of defenders this week, probably having to play Wann-Bissaka at centre-back, and maybe another of their back-up full-backs too, if they stick with a back-three.

Promising teenage fullback Julio Soler, only just signed to Bournemouth from Argentine club Lanus, will be unavailable until some time next month as he's currently representing Argentina iin the South American Under-20 Championship in Brazil. Not likely to be a starter for them any time soon anyway, though, I'd imagine.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Alejandro Garnacho has been involved in a lot of transfer speculation this week, so that might be a reason for him to be dropped from the starting lineup against Fulham on Sunday. (He played the full game against Rangers on Thursday night, so might need a little bit of a rest anyway.)

You can usually forgive a goalkeeper one bad game, but André Onana and Lukasz Fabianski had real stinkers last weekend; and they've had a number of flakey moments over the past few games. And since Fabianski doesn't have any obvious edge over Alphonse Areola anyway, I think there's a strong chance the young French keeper might now be getting his start back.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Justin Kluivert, obviously! Yet, superb though that display of finishing against Newcastle was, I feel Antoine Semenyo had an arguably equally excellent game. And I already said last week that I had a hunch Dango Ouattara might soon emerge as Bournemouth's most consistent goal prospect, if he continues to start at No. 9; while Dean Huijsen and Illia Zabarnyi in central defence were perhaps even better still. However, since they have Forest and then Liverpool up next (and their bench, at present, entirely filled with reserve and youth team players, so many injuries do they have), I wouldn't be in a great rush to sign any of their players.

Quite a few people also seem to have got very excited about Dominic Calvert-Lewin's brilliant solo goal (though mostly Everton fans, I would imagine; or 'followers of fashion', maybe...). Great though that goal was, given that he's been so woefully inconsistent throughout his career, and particularly in the last couple of seasons or so, it does seem likely that it was just a flash-in-the-pan. It would shake things up quite interestingly in FPL if we were about to see a Moyes revival at Everton. But, apart from their Double Gameweek next week, beginning with a promising home fixture against woeful Leicester, their opponents are pretty tough from now until March.

Phil Foden also had an eye-catching game (though keeper Christian Walton really should have been able to hold the second of his brace), and it's good to see him playing with a broad grin on his face again. However, City still really don't look greatly improved all-around, and are now entering one of the toughest fixture-runs faced by any club in the second half of the season, a sequence of six or seven games where they might really struggle for points. So, I'm going to resist that temptation as well - for now; I may come to regret that.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

And DON'T FORGET The Boycott; the dratted new 'Assistant Manager' chip should become available shortly after tomorrow's deadline - so, I do urge everyone to please consider quitting the game, or at least refusing to use this silly chip. 

And if you can't bring yourself to do either of those things, sorry competition addicts that you are (I know, it's hard...), please do criticise the Assistant Manager chip as vigorously as possible on any relevant social media channels you use, raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

A little bit of Zen (26)

 

"Fear is the mind-killer."

Frank Herbert  -  'Dune'

A corner turned?

Manchester City fans - and FPL managers who own any of their players - seem to be taking much encouragement from their emphatic 6-0 win this weekend.

But is this one success really a sign that their troubles are over? Are they really that much better?

Well, here are some of the potential positives:

Kyle Walker's gone now; that can only be a good thing. His pace and stamina have looked to be waning rapidly of late, and he's really begun to look as if he's past it at Premier League level. His last few performances, certainly, have been quite dreadful (perhaps he's also been distracted by his turbulent private life, or greedy thoughts of getting ready to take the Saudi money in the twilight of his career?), and he had become a liability to the team.

But Ruben Dias is back - that's HUGE, immediately makes them look so much more solid and well-organised and confident in defence.

Ederson's back too. Though Ortega is a a more than competent replacement (probably, in fact, as good as Ederson in most aspects of the goalkeeping craft; an excellent shot-stopper), Ederson is the man the rest of the team have been used to playing with most of the time, so his return to the side will also probably inject some comfortable - and confidence-building - familiarity to the rear of the lineup, a feeling which has been lacking of late. And his stellar distribution adds another dimension to City's game - allowing them the ready option to abandon the slow build-up from the back occasionally and try more direct medium-length or even long balls up the park... with sufficient accuracy to produce a high chance that they will reach, and be retained by a City player. (It does make you wonder why he was out of the side for so long in the first place, though. There may have been some small injury issues behind some of it, but it did look also as if Pep had some kind of a 'problem' with him for a while - a matter of not liking his 'attitude' about something, perhaps?)

Matheus Nunes is still struggling to adapt to the full-back role, but he's an intelligent and versatile player who should be able to master it eventually. And anything is an improvement on Walker....

Dropping Rico Lewis is also probably going to make the team stronger. I am a big fan - as Pep evidently is - of his enthusiasm and workrate, his game intelligence, the incisive contribution he can make in advanced midfield areas. But he's still very young and inexperienced, and he just doesn't have the physicality to be able to dominate in individual duels; playing him as a makeshift full-back, particularly when out-of-touch Walker was on the other flank, or alongside on the right of the defence, was asking for trouble. He had, unfortunately, become - yet another - obvious defensive weakness that opponents can ruthlessly target.

Gundogan and Kovacic playing together as a double-pivot, and trying to sit a little deeper, does appear to provide the potential for a little more solidity in central midfield.

Kevin DeBruyne is starting to look something like his best again now. It has taken a while for him to get his 'match-fitness' back, and his contributions in his first few games back from injury had been rather intermittent. But in this one, he was a constant threat and supplied three assists.

And damn, yes, Erling Haaland is looking as though he has definitively rediscovered his scoring touch. (Although I've always tended to think that there was never much wrong with his form or confidence. He'd just been starved of service while the rest of the team was floundering so badly over the previous couple of months.)

And perhaps best of all, Phil Foden has not just got his scoring boots back, but seems to have rekindled his joie de vivre as well. This is the first time in a long while we've seen him looking so happy and confident, showing such exuberant joy on the pitch.

And a lot of people are also saying that the arrival of the pacey Egyptian forward Omar Marmoush could have a transformative effect for City in the near future. Adam Monk of FourFourTwo rates his prospects with the club very highly. He does appear to have a skills profile and versatility somewhat similar to the departed Julian Alvarez - perhaps enabling him to sometimes play alongside Haaland as a strike partner, as well as to fulfill a number of different attacking midfield roles through the middle or on either flank (rather than being merely an emergency replacement for Haaland).

Yes, there's a lot to take comfort from there. But I believe there are many, rather stronger counter-points:

Well, that victory was only against Ipswich; and Ipswich were really, really poor in that game - just gave up the ghost after the first couple of goals. Proving that you're not one of the four worst teams in the League isn't really evidence of any seismic shift in performance.

Dias still doesn't look quite 100% - and you worry if Pep might be rushing him back into the fray just a little bit, perhaps putting him at risk of a recurrence of his injury. (So, indeed, it would appear! The poor bloke broke down during the PSG game just a few days later, and had to be withdrawn at half-time. Ooops!)  Also, excellent though he is, he can't hold things together at the back entirely on his own; he needs Stones and Ake to be back in action too.

Matheus Nunes is not a natural full-back, and is struggling to adapt to the position at the moment (it's probably not helping when Pep switches him from one side to the other), and he has been making a lot of mistakes thus far. Also, it just seems to be a bit of a waste of his talents; it is quite baffling that Pep doesn't seem to fancy playing him in his best position in central midfield - especially since that is the area of the pitch where his worst problems are manifesting themselves. [JJ Bull of The Athletic recently suggested that he'd do better to reunite with Ruben Amorim at Manchester United and play in a double-pivot with Manuel Ugarte there.]

While Rico Lewis has occasionally looked a bit of a liability defensively, he's nevertheless been one of City's best players this season, and it is therefore, I think, unfortunate to abandon him completely. There ought to be a way to make use of him in a more advanced role.

Gundogan, unfortunately, now looks hopelessly out-of-his-depth at the top level, just does not have any legs any more. Pep seems to be guilty of a misplaced loyalty here, or an exaggerated gratitude for his past contributions, or is perhaps overrating the value of experience. Playing Gundogan as a defensive midfielder now has much the same effect as Casemiro has whenever Amorim is forced to field him at United: it's just an open invitation to the opponents to come marauding through the central areas at will.

And Mateo Kovacic, bless him, is a fantastic progressive No. 6, great passer of the ball, dangerous when pushing forward himself - but doesn't have a defensive bone in his body; he completely lacks the all-around awareness, the instinct to spot danger that is required for a stopper role. Persisting with him as a Rodri replacement is the main root of City's current problems. And those problems are NOT going to go away unless they can acquire a top-class defensive midfielder in this transfer window. (And I think they might have to settle for a loan deal on that - because who's going to transfer into a club to be a perpetual understudy to someone like Rodri for the next five years?)

DeBruyne still doesn't look 100% fit (not sure if this is so, but I read somewhere that he might have a small hernia - much like the problem that so impeded Son Heung-min last season; not a major disability, but a constant, niggling inhibitor of performance). And he's starting to show his age. It is probably not reasonable to expect him to ever quite regain the pinnacle of performance he was demonstrating a few years ago.

Haaland, of course, could still deliver some big goalscoring returns. But he's not the kind of player who - like Salah or Palmer or Mbeumo.... - creates chances for himself out of nothing; he needs good regular service. And I fear he's still likely to be often lacking that from this City side. Moreover, game states can have a big impact on patterns of play and on a striker's mentality: there's a lot of extra pressure on the main goalscorer when you're chasing the game - and City look like they might still quite often be chasing games.

I am a huge fan of Phil Foden, and I - more than anyone! - really hope that he has turned a corner this season, that he has ironed something out in his relationship with Pep that has restored his confidence, and that he is going to continue now to play with the effervescence he showed last Sunday. But that hope is still fragile. Phil thrived on the security of being an almost invariable starter for most of last season, in DeBruyne's absence, and on being given the responsibility of being the club's primary playmaker. And he thrives on being able to play in central areas as a highly mobile No. 10. If Pep is going to constantly swap his starting position around, and mostly ask him to play out wide on one of the flanks, I fear this new flowering of goalscoring form may soon wither again.

And I think it may be unreasonable to expect Omar Marmoush to be The Messiah to redeem City. He has not been an especially prolific scorer (apart from one very hot streak for Frankfurt earlier this season); in fact, until he moved to Frankfurt just under 18 months ago, he was almost entirely unacquainted with the goal. And, you know, the Bundesliga isn't exactly the same level of competition as the Premier League: even its top clubs would probably struggle against most of our leading teams; the majority of teams in that league would struggle in the Championship.

And, ahem, City now have one of the toughest runs of fixtures coming up that any side - certainly any top side - has to face in the second half of the season (along with two crunch games to try to avoid the ignominy of Champions League elimination at the group stage... and the dear old FA Cup). They might have a real struggle for points from now until some time in March: Chelsea, Arsenal, Newcastle, Liverpool, Spurs (terrible at the moment; but a bogey team for City in recent years), and Nottingham Forest is an horrendous sequencc. Brighton, Manchester United and Crystal Palace - and a fighting-for-their-lives Leicester - might not be a pushover after that either. The way City were playing up until a few weeks ago, it would not have been outrageous to suggest they might lose all of them. And I'm afraid I still think it's very likely they'll lose at least half of them.

So - NO, sorry; I am not at all convinced we've yet seen any clear sign of a City renaissance.

[And sure enough, the very next night they got absolutely torn apart by Paris St Germain. Despite rather fortuitously opening up a two-goal lead in the first half, they were outplayed for almost the whole game and ended up getting spanked 4-2.... and it might have been much worse.  City's problems are deep-seated and persistent. They might be capable of significant improvement.... but they're not about to get GOOD again any time soon.]

A week further on, they have scraped through into the knockout stage of the Champions League - but only by the skin of their teeth! Again, City can't take much comfort from a fairly dismal performance against Club Brugge: they were regularly cut open by the Belgian side on the counter-attack, conceded the first goal... and very nearly went behind again when Greek forward Christos Tzolis cracked a low 20-yard shot inches wide of the post - with Ederson rooted to the spot. If that one had gone in, I doubt if City could have found a way back into the game. 

And their ultimately fairly comfortable win over Chelsea at the weekend was a bit of a head-scratcher - really more down to Chelsea being surprisingly lacklustre rather than City being at all brilliant. They are still looking... well, not just a pale shadow of the team that dominated every competition in the the last few years, but a completely different team; a much, much worse team, a really rather shambolic team, who look like they could not just get beaten but properly spanked by just about any half-decent side. In his post-match interview on Sunday, Pep was again extremely downbeat; positively careworn and depressed-looking. And he came out with one of the most self-damning remarks I think I've ever heard from a Premier League manager, when he said, "Without the ball, we are one of the worst teams. We need the ball to survive."  No, even Pep doesn't think City are any good again yet. They're hanging on by their fingernails, only occasionally giving themselves a chance in games by trying even harder than usual never to give the ball away. But no team manages never to give the ball away; and, at the moment, every time City give the ball away, they look like they might concede a goal.

Luck-o-Meter (22)

Well, there don't seem to have been any horrendous refereeing cock-ups on Day One (well, only one); the major surprise in the first half of the 'gameweek' was the rash of unexpected results or at least near-upsets; Bournemouth thrashing Newcastle at St James's, Arsenal throwing away a two-goal home lead to Villa, Liverpool nearly losing at Brentford, and Palace and Fulham labouring to unconvincing wins against dreadful West Ham and Leicester.

The weekend began with what might be one of the biggest 'upsets' of the season so far: I mean, Bournemouth have been on an improving trend, and I had expected them to give Newcastle a tough game and not concede easily - but I don't think anyone can really have expected to see them win against the league's most in-form team, much less hand out a thorough spanking (things might have been even worse for the home side, with Ouattara unluckily - but correctly - having another effort ruled out, and substitute Jebbison wasting a golden chance from a solo breakaway in the closing minutes). It was a lively game, very entertaining, with both keepers needing to make some sharp saves to keep the scoreline down. But Newcastle were somehow not quite at the races for this one (the curse of the lunchtime kick-off, cumulative exhaustion from the hectic winter schedule, or just the mounting pressure to keep extending their long winning run??), while Bournemouth produced surely their best performance of the season. (And teenage defender Dean Huijsen had an absolute monster of game, not allowing the hitherto unstoppable Alexander Isak a kick.)

Mid-season fatigue is perhaps setting in everywhere now. Leicester started brightly at home, but just couldn't convert any of their several chances, and gradually faded through the second half. And, while they do suggest some attacking threat, their defence is still absolutely dreadful. Visitors Fulham, though, were scarecely that much better; they appeared to be playing most of the game at half-speed, and their two goals kind of came out of nowhere, rare incisive attacks in a mostly very drab performance.

Well, damn, Danny Murphy, usually my favourite of the BBC's pundits - but, of course, a Liverpool man to his boots - seemed to think that was a peak Liverpool performance. I watched it live, and thought they were miles below their best in fluidity and incisiveness; although you have to give a lot of credit to Brentford, who have suddenly become much more cohesive and resilient in defence (even Flekken is starting to look quite decent). The home side had slightly the best of things, in a close-fought, ding-dong game, at least in the first-half; and although Liverpool had a lot of attempts, most of them were hopeful shots from distance which never really troubled the keeper. Only Szoboszlai's early drive against the cross-bar, and Macalliser's stinging long-range shot that Flekken had to tip around his far post (although it was probably going just wide anyway) could be counted as 'near-misses' - their only other really close call was a first-half sitter which Cody Gakpo mishit so badly that it ended up as neither a cross nor a shot, and dribbled tamely wide of the far post. Brentford had plenty of chances, and rather better ones, of their own (how did Damsgaard not get on the end of that fierce square ball in the opening minutes, when he was unmarked three yards from goal??), but their usually clinical finishing somehow deserted them on this occasion. But of course, Liverpool's great strengths are their persistence, and their confidence in the wealth of additional talent they can bring on from the bench: Darwin Nunez is starting to make a habit of nicking winning goals deep into added-on time. But the one major controversy in this game involved the goalscorer; having already received the mandatory booking for taking his shirt off in celebrating his breakthrough goal, he should have got a second for a wild tackle on Nathan Collins moments later.... and then a third when he went on to score a second and ran into the crowd for another non-sanctioned celebration. These are absolutely clearcut, unarguable yelow-card offences - and it is a major flaw of the current officiating system that VAR is not given any responsibility for intervening on second-yellow incidents.

Thus far, Graham Potter may only have succeeded in making West Ham even worse. They were absolutely abysmal in this game, and Crystal Palace, who struggled to beat them, really weren't much better: centre-forward Jean-Philippe Mateta finally seems to be coming into some form (although he was lucky to get away with scoring the worst penalty kick we've seen all season!), but the rest of the team is really not sparking at all. Fabianski had a very bad day at the office: he really shouldn't have let Mateta beat him with a central shot from 21 yards out, made a stupid challenge on Nketiah to concede the late penalty, and then really should have saved Mateta's feeble scuffed spot-kick. I suspect Areola might be getting his starting place back soon - although he apparently has an unspecified injury problem at the moment. At least there wasn't any question about the Mavropanos sending-off; except that perhaps it should have been a straight red, for kicking an opponent in the face.

Saliba's late withdrawal with a muscle problem will have been a hard blow for the astonishing 27.6% of FPL managers that own him, and presumably invariably start him (I've never understood this over-popularity, as he is quite clearly only the third best pick from the Arsenal defence this year, after Gabriel and Timber...). And Lucas Digne's more modest 6.7% ownership were no doubt equally piqued by Emery's decision to give Ian Maatsen a run-out in his stead; although he repented of that at half-time, so Digne's starts in future are presumably now looking more secure - and he did produce one of the assists here. Saliba's absence naturally unsettled the home side a fair bit, requiring a reordering of their defence and leaving them short of muscle in the middle of the park, with Partey being switched to right-back; and it was indeed a dreadful error by Partey, losing track of Watkins and allowing him to ghost into the six-yard box completely unmarked, that let Villa in for the equaliser. Arsenal, to be fair, nearly claimed the win with a flurry of late attacks, having Merino hit a fierce shot against the base of a post deep into injury time, and Martinez then making a good save with his legs to deny Trossard on the follow-up at the near-post; then, in the dying seconds Trossard had another golden chance when played in behind by Lewis-Skelly's neat reverse pass. Arsenal will also feel disappointed that an apparent winner from Merino was disallowed for a handball by Havertz; but it was crystal clear on the replay that the ball had deflected off his forearm, and when that's part of the goal attempt, it's a 'strict liability' offence, presumed intentionality or decisive impact are not in issue. The Gunners should rather be grateful to have hung on for a point, as Villa had been a mite unlucky to see Tielemans crash a shot against the foot of the post less than a minute after his opening goal, and might well have nicked all 3 points before Arsenal mounted their late rally. Overall, though, Villa really weren't all that good for the most part, and questions have to be asked about why Arsenal couldn't make more of their first-half dominance.... and why they fell apart so badly in the second half.

Good grief - Everton have somehow remembered how to score goals! How on earth did that happen? And how long will they be able to remember the trick??  OK, it was only against an injury-ravaged Spurs, at their most Spursy, but still...  For a team who've generally struggled to find even 1 goal in 90 minutes to rack up 3 in the first half is probably the biggest surprise of the week.  And but for a trio of sharp saves by Kinsky early on, from Lindstram, Mangala, and Tarkowsky, this might have degnerated into an absolute landslide against the visitors. Spurs did assert themselves a tad more effectively in the second half, and even managed a couple of late goals to make the closing minutes a bit anxious for the home fans. But they do look really clueless at the moment; and the 'dead pool' betting on the date of Postecoglou's sacking intensifies.

You suspected André Onana was going to have one of his flakey days at Old Trafford when, after just a few minutes, he elected for a flappy punch at Joao Pedro's low cross - rather than a catch, or tipping it over his bar, or just pushing it on across his goalmouth to safety - pushing it straight forward... apparently oblivious of the fact that Danny Welbeck was bearing down on him, less than a yard away; the rebound off the Brighton man's torso might easily have flown straight into the goal, but luckily for Onana, it looped harmlessly just over the bar. Diallo appeared to have been brought down in the penalty area by Estupinan's clumsy challenge from behind, but we didn't even hear if VAR was 'looking at' that one; fortunately for the sake of justice, there was even less doubt about Baleba hooking his arm across the back of Zirkzee's head and dragging him to the floor, on a follow-up attack just moments later. The hapless Onana probably could have done more to keep out Minteh's opener, and Joao Pedro's apparent third (unluckily, bur probably rightly ruled out for a minor foul by Van Hecke), and absolutely gifted Brighton their actual third by fumbling a simple ball into the middle of his penalty area  and presenting it on a plate to Rutter. United fans are losing confidence in the big French keeper again, starting to bay for his scalp.

Forest v Southampton followed a similar pattern to the Everton game - although the hosts didn't get their foot off the gas quite so badly in the second half, and were here almost thwarted by some abysmal luck rather than anything else. In the first half, they looked as if they could score at will against an utterly limp Southampton, with a pair of screamers from Elliot Anderson and Callum Hudson-0doi, and the inevitable header from Chris Wood putting them comfortably on top. But then Ramsdale made a smart double-save from Elanga and Gibbs-White early in the second half to stop the game getting completely out of reach, and shortly afterwards the visitors pulled one back with a hopeful shot from outside the box that took a huge deflection that left Sels with no chance. Then a perfectly good 4th, when the keeper somehow mishandled Milenkovic's firm but unproblematic header from a free-kick on the left, was eventually chalked off. VAR unfathomably decided to tell Simon Hooper to take a second look, because Wood might have been marginally offside, although he wasn't in any way 'interfering' with play; but simply being sent to look at the monitor evidently prejudiced the referee into thinking that the goal must not be kosher - ridiculous decision! (At least it was the only bad refereeing gaffe of the weekend.)  At least it spared the blushes of Ramsdale, who had somehow managed to fumble a fairly simple catch and chuck it over his own shoulder into the net. Then Southampton's giant new centre-forward Paul Onuachu headed powerfully home from a corner, just as it had been announced that there would be an astonishing 12 minutes of stoppage time added (WHY?? Surely Hooper's goof-up of the Milenkovic decision didn't take that long??) - which made for a very nervous end to the game for Forest and their fans.... and meant that the most important action of the day was Ola Aina's extraordinary goal-line clearance right at the death.

Manchester City sort of got their mojo back; although proving that you're not one of the four or five worst teams in the league after all is not perhaps something to get that excited about. Ipswich looked quite lively at the start of the game, and actually made some good chances in the first 15 minutes or so - particularly Omari Hutchinson's fierce drive that went just over the bar. If one of those chances had been converted, the match might have taken a very different course. Alas, after that bright start, they began to increasingly sit back and invite their visitors on to them, which, of course, was asking for trouble. Keeper Walton letting a soft Foden effort go right through him to put City 3 up just before going into the break broke their will. However, they did still create a few moments of danger in the second half, mainly through Liam Delap; and the scoreline was harsh on them. Two of the goals were gifted to City by errors - Walton's uncharacteristic fumble of the Foden shot, and Jack Clarke's clumsy square pass that let Doku in to set up Haaland for an easy 5th - but the other 4 were all just superb finishes that no team would have been able to stop.

And a fairly miserable end to the Gameweek's woeful proceedings for all Cole Palmer owners....  Chelsea got their expected comfortable win against flailing Wolves, but Palmer somehow missed to contribute to any of the goals?? He came close, of course; had one good effort well saved by Sa early on, and set up Jackson for a neat fourth goal.... only to have it ruled out for a narrow offside! Poor guy just can't catch a break at the moment (and neither can I!).  Bit of an oddity, too, that three of the four goals here were scored by defenders!

A dubiously disallowed goal for Forest, one or two penalties that might have been given, and Darwin Nunez inexplicably escaping being sent off for a second yellow card... but overall, a pretty good week for the officiating. How I wish this was the norm, rather than the rare exception.

This week's 'luck' and surprise mostly centred on the unexpected performances, many, many thumping goals, and disappointing returns from many of the 'usual suspects': Van Dijk, the Arsenal and Forest defences, Palmer, Salah, Diallo, Mbeumo, Wissa, Gordon and Isak all blanked, while Newcastle, Manchester United, and Spurs all got badly beaten (the first two at home), Liverpool and Arsenal nearly got beaten, and Forest almost let Southampton recover a three-goal deficit to draw. Crazy stuff. While the 'Team of the Week' doesn't contain any complete randoms (Minteh, Kovacic, Chalobah, and Kluivert are the most surprising inclusions), not many of them could be said to be among the week's most expected returners. However, because of the week's mostly 'good' refereeing, I think I'm going to award this one just a modest 4 out of 10 on the Luck-o-Meter.

And DON'T FORGET The Boycott (that damned new chip will be in play after next weekend...):

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Dilemmas of the Week - GW22

 

A yawning silence still hangs over the transfer market - perhaps we're really not going to see any big moves, in or out, this year....?

Nevertheless, I continue to warn - Cassandra-like - that this month, and probably next month too, is a very bad time to play the 2nd Wildcard.

Given the very short turnaround between Gameweeks this time, it's unlikely we'll get very much team news out on Friday - but I'll update here, if any emerges. For the moment, there appear to have been no new problems arising in the midweek batch of games.

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 22?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Amazingly, we don't seem to have lost anyone else to injury in the midweek games - although Palace's Jefferson Lerma came off against Ipswich because he felt nauseous, so might be a doubt for the weekend. And I wouldn't be at all surprised if Ipswich keeper, Christian Walton, needs to be rested for a mild concussion, after Joao Pedro violently barged him in the face on Thursday night.

Also, the injury Gabriel Jesus picked up in the Cup game against Manchester United last Sunday has now been confirmed to be an ACL tear, which will keep him out for the rest of the season.

Updates:  Enzo Maresca grumbled in his Friday press conference that Palmer, Lavia, Fernandez and Colwill were all suffering with knocks and were missing training that day. However, since they don't play Wolves until Monday evening, there is strong hope that they'll all be fine to take part. It does throw this week's Captaincy Conundrum into turmoil, though!

Ismaila Sarr has been suffering with some leg-muscle tightness, though Glasner sounded quite optimistic about his participation.

Fabian Schar is also a doubt after suffering a bout of 'serious illness' in midweek.

Tyer Dibling has reportedly picked up an ankle injury in the match against United on Thursday.

Yves Bissouma is feeling a knock, and Brennan Johnson is complaining of a sore calf-muscle after the midweek game (but, really, does anyone have Spurs players at the moment??).

Jean-Clair Todibo and Alphonse Areola are also missing for West Ham due to unspecified injuries, though they're only squad players.

Mario Lemina, only recently back from a spell of injury, apparently missed the Wednesday game at Newcastle at his own request, having asked for a move away from Molineux; but he has now apologised to teammates for this behaviour, and might be included again on Monday. Matheus Cunha, however, who only played the second half against Newcastle as he feels his way back from a muscle injury picked up at the turn of the year, is now reported to be yet another victim of 'illness' (he'll probably be OK for Monday; but you wouldn't really fancy his chances against Chelsea...).

Oh, and there are rumours that William Saliba may have picked up a problem (not spotted in training on Friday??); but there's nothing very solid on this, and I suspect it's just smoke-and-mirrors from The Emirates Psy-Ops Department.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

We're out of the woods for 'totting-up' suspensions at last. And no-one got sent off in the midweek games, so we're not missing anyone with a ban this time.

Kalvin Phillips is still a City player, so ineligible to turn out for Ipswich this weekend - but he's hardly featured for them anyway.

And Trevoh Chalobah has been recalled to Chelsea from his loan spell with Palace. I imagine this is just as emergency cover - but, at only 4.4 million currently, he could become a tempting fifth defender if he gets a run of starts.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

As expected, Kyle Walker was dropped from the City squad, after requesting a move (but he's been terrible lately, so I can't see why anyone would have had him for FPL anyway).

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Well, I tipped Bruno Fernandes and Amad Diallo last time. Although United's team performance against Southampton was flakey, I think they'll probably be a good bet again at home against Brighton.

Many people are getting unduly excited about Phil Foden's brace against Brentford; but I still see no convincing sign of a general revival at City, and will be very wary of taking any of their players until there is.

My slightly more left-field suggestion would be Nicolas Jackson, who had an excellent game against Bournemouth - coming very close to scoring a number of times, and setting up Cole Palmer very neatly for the opening goal.

PS: First new signing of note!

The exciting Dutch wide attacker, Donyell Malen, has joined Villa from Borrussia Dortmund, and Unai Emery suggested that he might be able to participate for them straight away (though surely only as a sub first time out?). Leon Bailey looks likeliest to make way. This is definitely one to watch.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

And DON'T FORGET The Boycott:

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

A little bit of Zen (25)

 

"We are what we do repeatedly. Excellence, therefore, does not consist in single actions, but in our habits."

Aristotle

Luck-o-Meter (21)

It's still difficult to discern any strong evidence of a City revival. Apart from two good finishes from Foden, they never really looked the better side at Brentford, and were often being cut open at will by the home team - and thus it was no big surprise that they gave up 2 goals inside the last 10 minutes to end up dropping points again (and might very nearly have lost all 3 points to Mbeumo's last-gasp effort).

Nico Jackson - though there's little love for him in the FPL community at the moment - had an impressive game against Bournemouth: playing in Palmer for the opener, thumping a 20-yard drive against the foot of the left-hand post, and having several more good attempts (all well saved or blocked, rather than being fluffed). But Chelsea's abysmal fortune with the referees continues: David Brooks hauling Cucurella to the ground by his hair - when he was running at full tilt! - is somehow not considered 'violent conduct'?? Is hair-pulling a 'grey area' in the interpretation guidelines?? (And VAR apparently only had one TV camera on the incident, which was at extreme range - but even so, it was pretty damn clear, and that can't be used as an excuse for 'uncertainty' about the nature of the offence.) And then Rob Jones added to insult to injury by coming up with yet another way of denying Chelsea a penalty for Jackson's being hauled to the ground by his shirt inside the box: awarding a free-kick for a separate - near-simultaneous but much less serious - offence just outside the box?! At least Reece James got the last-gasp equaliser from that kick, so justice was done on the overall result - but it was still a terrible decision. (I thought the penalty decision against Caicedo to get Bournemouth back in the game was a bit soft too: hardly any contact, and both players running into each other...)

West Ham produced... well, I hate to say the most undeserved, but certainly the most unexpected result of the Gameweek, somehow pulling off a 3-2 win against Fulham, despite being mostly fairly dreadful, and still wide open at the back. They needed an untypical stinker of a game from Leno in goal to hand them the chance, and a bit of sloppy finishing, and some poor luck (Harry Wilson and Raul Jimenez both crashed efforts against the crossbar in the first half), from Fulham to seal the narrow win, in a game the visiting side had completely dominated.

Amadou Onana was very fortunate not to be sent off for two clumsy fouls on Tuesday night. And Tielemans hauling Calvert-Lewin to the ground by his neck when waiting for a corner - the most egregious bit of wrestling at set-pieces in this match, but not the only one - was an obvious penalty, but somehow ignored by VAR. Overall, though, this one was a pretty drab affair: both sides looked like mid-table mediocrities.

Forest appeared to completely dominate Liverpool in the first half, but weren't able to capitalise on their early lead, and the visitors gradually came back into the game more and more strongly in the second half, particularly after Jota's introduction 20 minutes after the break - he immediately nicked a barely deserved equaliser in Arsenal fashion from a corner! Sels, however, was in defiant form in the Forest goal. Trent was a bit lucky to escape punishment for 'accidentally' punching a Forest player (he shouldn't have been punching the ball away either; a reckless and unnecessary gesture - I can't recall ever seeing a player do that before!), but the refereeing otherwise looked fine in this one. No surprise, really, that between two of the best defences in the league, it was a hard-fought, cagey, low-scoring game. The major head-scratching injustice in FPL terms was that Sels, despite notching 5 saves and being most people's 'Man of the Match', didn't get anywhere near earning even 1 bonus point under the game's absurd BPS ratings.

Arsenal deserved their win on the balance of play over a poor Spurs, but their crucial equalising goal (yet again from Gabriel attacking a corner!) should not have happened, since Porro had clearly played the ball out off Trossard's leg: the strongest example I think we've yet seen this season of wrong decisions other than penalties and red cards also having the potential to swing games. Spurs's new keeper, Antonin Kinsky, didn't exactly cover himself in glory; a few very shakey moments on the ball, and he really should not have let Trossard's shot get past him from that range. It was rough on Solanke to be penalised for an 'own goal'; but even rougher on Gabriel - who had done all the work for it! - to be denied the 'assist' on it. Apparently, the ball was deemed to have flicked off two Spurs players before it entered the net. I didn't see that! But so what, anyway? A player is still credited with a goal no matter how many bodies it ricochets off on its path to the net, so long as the ball was deemed to be goalbound at the instant he played it. Why should it be any different with an assist??? (In fact, the FA has stated that this season 'assists' are going to be credited if the ball reaches the place it appeared to be intended for, despite intervening deflections. And so far, we've seen usually an over-generous interpretation of this - with 'assists' being given for crosses or square balls that took huge deflections, and clearly fell to a different teammate than the one intended. There is still some inconsistency here!)

Leicester v Palace might well have been the worst game of the season so far. Even Oliver Glasner admitted they didn't really deserve to win the game on their general level of performance. On this evidence, Leicester might spare Southampton the ignominy of finishing dead last. But Palace don't look likely to drag themselves far out of the bottom-of-the-table scrap. There wasn't even enough action in the game to give the officials a chance to screw up a big decision!

The luck definitely wasn't with Wolves on their visit to Newcastle: Strand Larsen glanced an effort off the outside of one post in the first half, and had a fierce shot palmed against the face of the other late in the second; Cunha, only appearing as a second-half substitute, also had a good effort go very narrowly wide, and Dubravka was ultimately credited with a remarkable 7 saves; and I couldn't see anything wrong with the alleged 'handball' for which Santiago Bueno's late consolation goal was disallowed. Newcastle, however, were much the better side, and well worth the win - just not perhaps the clean-sheet bonuses!

Joao Pedro should have been red carded, but mysteriously got left off with a yellow, when he recklessly charged into Ipswich goalkeeper Christian Walton, shoulder-charging him in the face. And the VAR chaps once more just sat on their hands - disgraceful decision! That appears to have been the only point of interest in a fairly sterile encounter; although some online commentators mention an exceptional amount of wrestling in the box at corners, from both sides. Brighton were somewhat improved over recent flakey performances, but still hardly impressive; Ipswich disappointingly lacklustre. And the BPS was up to its funny business again, somehow concluding that Estupinan was more deserving of extra points than either of the goalscorers!

I feel embarrassed by my (rare!) good fortune in having had my captain's armband on Amad Diallo last night: precisely similar emotions, I imagine, to Ruben Amorim, who was spared an ignominious home defeat at the hands of bottom club Southampton by the youngster's late, late hattrick. Southampton had overpowered a lacklustre United for most of the game, with Dibling in particular looking very dangerous; and Andre Onana had to make a string of smart stops to keep the game within reach. However, it does look as if United should have had a penalty when Walker-Peters handled the ball in the box early on. (I've only seen stills of it, but it does look pretty egregious - arm way above the shoulder, and obviously moving towards the ball. I think there's some suggestion that he might have been off-balanced by a gentle shove in the back from Diallo - but, unless you're going to call a foul against the United player, that shouldn't make any difference. And, yet again, this appears to be a case where VAR was simply unwilling to overrule the referee, however obvious the error.)

Another pretty terrible week for the refereeing decisions: at least 3 clearcut penalties turned down, 3 players escaping deserved red cards, a dubiously disallowed goal by Wolves - and that misawarded corner-kick leading to an Arsenal goal...  Not the worst we've seen, but pretty damn bad. Diallo coming up with three goals right at the death is a rare turn-up too. And there did seem to be an above-average incidence of shots against the woodwork and high-class saves this week. But no surprise results, except perhaps for Bournemouth holding a faltering Chelsea to a draw at Stamford Bridge; oh, and of course, West Ham's out-of-nowhere, completely against the run-of-the-game win over Fulham. Hence, the 'Team of the Week' isn't wildly unexpected - although few perhaps would have bet on Martin Dubravka notching 7 saves and 2 bonus points to end up as top keeper for the week, or on Marc Guehi to pick up a goal (and a very good one at that!), or on Tyrone Mings, Ezri Konsa, and Pervis Estupinan to be so extravagantly blessed by the BPS Fairy; up front, the usual suspects all came good, with Isak, Wood, Watkins, and even Haaland getting on the scoresheet; but midfield stalwarts Salah, Mbeumo, and Palmer were edged out of the list this time by Diallo, Iwobi, Semenyo, Foden, and Mitoma (all justifiable picks; but it's pretty unlikely that anyone has more than one of them!). Overall, then, despite the dreadful VAR performance, I think this gameweek is only a weak 7 out of 10 on the Luck-o-Meter.

And DON'T FORGET The Boycott:

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Picks of the Week (4)

DISCLAIMER: I always refuse to identify myself as any sort of FPL 'guru' or 'mentor' or 'expert'. And I have previously on this blog expressed my reluctance to share many details of my own selections, or to make very specific player recommendations.

However, in addition to occasionally critiquing common 'sheep picks' of the moment (not all necessarily outright bad, but ridiculously over-popular selections), I thought I would start occasionally trying to highlight one or two players who seem not yet to be very widely owned but are starting to look very tempting prospects.

I will generally try to come up with at least 2 options per week - so that it doesn't look like I'm making a sole recommendation. And these suggestions are intended to be simply 'worth thinking about', not at all 'must-haves''. (And some weeks, I'll have nothing.....)

And in fact I have had NOTHING for a full month now (December is a terrible time to be making predictions - with so many rotations amid the crowded schedule, mounting fatigue, and a landslide of injuries and totting-up suspensions). So,  I'm feeling under a bit of pressure to come up with something again now. But I will preface these thoughts with a bigger caveat than usual: these are are very much players I think I are worth keeping an eye on - but not at all ones you should be buying immediately (well, not the second two, anyway).

So, first up we have Amad Diallo - who was nearly-but-not-quite a 'pick'  in this series four weeks ago. I'm probably a bit 'late to the party' on this one, since the young United star has certainly been an intriguing property in FPL for several weeks, and his ownership is now well over 15%. But so fickle are the FPL 'sheep' that there was a massive sell-off under way at the end of December, after he'd 'blanked' a mere two or three times (to be fair, the disillusion might have been more reasonably based on the general direness of Manchester United's performances in those matches, rather than those of Diallo himself, who, I thought, was still putting up a good show... in impossible circumstances). And despite a 9-pt haul against Liverpool the other week, and another impressive showing as a sub in the FA Cup victory over Arsenal on Sunday, his ownership seems to be continuing to dwindle (ever so slightly), rather than grow; the tide of 'public opinion' has, inexplicably, turned against the young man. Now, I still have doubts about how decisively Manchester United have turned the corner under Amorim's leadership, how robust their recent impressive renaissance may prove to be. But there's no questioning that something remarkable has happened at the club in the past couple of weeks: in the last two games, against 'better' opposition, they showed more passion, more cohesion, and were tactically smarter than their opponents - and you can feel the confidence in the team swelling after these two excellent results. They have Southampton up next. And their difficult fixture-run over the holiday period is now behind them; it's all looking much less challenging for them for a good way ahead now. I brought Diallo in a few weeks ago; I didn't lose patience with him over a short run of blanks (when he was still playing well); and I'm seriously thinking of making him captain this gameweek!

The near-simultaneous long-term injuries to Bournemouth's two central attackers last week could lead to a much more regular, important, and dangerous role for Dango Ouattara. I confess, this one is pretty speculative: there's a chance that the club will try to bring in a new striker during the current transfer window. And Antoine Semenyo is another prime candidate to take over at centre-forward, if they don't. But I think Ouattara's superior pace and muscularity probably make him a better fit for this position than Semenyo; and he did just produce a very impressive try-out for the role in this weekend's FA Cup tie. He only costs 5 million, and he's classified as a midfielder. However, I proffer this thought more as a wait-and-see, since Bournemouth have a rough run of fixtures until the middle of February. Moreover, there's a lot of competition for attention in the budget midfielder category, with the likes of Kevin Schade, Anthony Elanga, Harry Wilson, Omari Hutchinson, and Lucas Bergvall making some waves in recent weeks - as well as the aforementioned Amad Diallo, of course; and yes, even Morgan Rogers! [I have been fairly consistently 'sceptical' of Rogers's claims as the budget midfield pick since the very start of the season; but I have also always maintained that this is not because of any lack of admiration for his talent. I've simply felt that Villa's League form this season has been too fragile, and that the way he's mostly been played is not conducive to him getting regular attacking contributions. If you look at his heat-maps, he's often getting on the ball deep in his own half, and the great majority of his touches seem to be usually in and around the centre circle; he's very good at carrying the ball forward, but he's usually been releasing it to an attacking teammate long before he gets all that near the opposing penalty area. However, I think the gradual return of Boubacar Kamara to the Villa set-up since the tail-end of November may have been transformative: they now look much more secure in midfield, much less vulnerable to counter-attack, and that seems to be giving the other midfielders much more confidence to press further forward, without the constant fear of immediately having to sprint back to try to cover if there's a change in possession. And Rogers, in particular, seems to have been blossoming in this new environment, with 2 goals and 2 assists in the last four games (and another one in the Cup on Friday evening!); what's more, these have looked to me like replicable goals, like the sort of thing we could easily imagine him repeating on a frequent basis if he continues to play like this - whereas the few he'd got earlier in the season all looked like out-of-the-blue one-offs, untypical of his general play. Villa as a whole still look pretty flakey to me; but I think Rogers is - finally - worth consideration for that fifth midfielder slot.]

And finally.... the most speculative suggestion of the lot: Liverpool's 21-year-old right-back, Conor Bradley. Yes, at the moment, Trent looks as though he'll be staying till the end of the season, and keeping the start. But there must be a very good chance that Trent could be leaving in the next couple of weeks; and if negotiations with Real (or some other surprise suitor?) start tending that way, he might be dropped at any moment. Perhaps Arne Slot's giving him the armband against Accrington Stanley in the Cup on Saturday was less a 'vote of confidence' after his stinker of a performance against United in the League the previous week and more of a sentimental farewell....? If that happens, young Mr Bradley could be about to become the hottest defensive property in FPL. He was rather unkindly priced at 5.0 million at the start of the season (ridiculous for a player who can't have been expected to get many starts; but I suppose it says something about how well he played when he did stand in for Trent a handful of times last season), but he has fallen now to just 4.7. And I really don't think there's any better defensive prospect in FPL at that price at the moment. I am rather hoping that Trent is packing his bags for Spain already....

And DON'T FORGET The Boycott:

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip