Luck-o-Meter (23)

 

Darn - this is looking like it could be another weekend where the match outcomes and performances provide most of the surprises, rather than dodgy refereeing. That can't be a bad thing. But it doesn't mean there's no luck at play in unexpectedly skewing the FPL points returns - it's just a different kind of 'luck'!

We've seen Bournemouth on a strongly improving trend for some time now, and after their commanding victory over Newcastle last week, we'd expect their confidence to have been sky-high for this home fixture against high-flying Nottingham Forest. But the comprehensiveness of their eventual win must surely count as the weekend's biggest surprise (among many!). Forest have rarely given up a chance to anyone over the last few months, but they were somehow lacking their usual spark here - and Chris Wood, in particular, was strangely anonymous. Yet they still weren't terrible: the match was very evenly balanced for a long time, with only Justin Kluivert's early screamer separating the two sides for nearly an hour. But once Dango Ouattara headed home the second, the visitors started to fall apart, and Bournemouth appeared to be able to score at will, might have been able to rack up even more of a landslide win. Ouattara was unfortunate to miss out on being the first player this season to notch 4 goals in a game, when his finish to the game's slickest team move was ruled out - correctly - for a narrow offside. [I am somewhat embarrassed by the sudden extravagant 'success' of my prediction a couple of weeks back that Ouattara was 'one to watch', as he seemed likely to inherit the No. 9 mantle at the club.]

Brighton's rather tepid performance might not have deserved a win against Everton's stubborn defence, but they were extremely unfortunate to lose this one, the visitors really not producing a decent effort on goal, apart from the weird - and very soft - penalty. On replays, Joel Veltman did appear to deliberately bat the ball away with his hand; but that would have been a very bizarre thing to do, and it is also possible that the touch was just accidental, as he was falling forwards out of control and trying to twist his body to land on his side rather than his front. Given how extremely reluctant VAR has usually been this season to intervene on violent fouls, it is especially difficult to see how this incident meets the threshold criterion of being a 'clear and obvious error' by the referee initially. There may also be an issue of whether Veltman himself had been fouled by Beto, who did appear to have run across him, from slightly behind, causing him to lose balance and pitch forward when he had been an easy favourite to claim the ball; this aspect of the situation does not seem to have been addressed at all (either by the match officials or TV pundits!). It was a very solid display by Everton, especially as the loss of Mangala with a knee injury with some 15 minutes still to be played brought them down to 10 men. However, Everton fans who claim they knew "they were always going to win this one" are being delusional: this was one of the luckiest wins of the season, and competely against the form book.

Liverpool got a predictably comfortable win over Ipswich at Anfield, without ever really needing to get out of second gear. FPL managers who gambled their Triple Captain chip on Mo Salah this week will be disappointed that he contributed just the one goal (and was perhaps rather lucky to receive 1 bonus point in addition); and those who own Trent Alexander-Arnold will be miffed that Liverpool gave up a late consolation goal from a corner, and that a thunderous drive of his own late in the game smashed harmlessly against the woodwork - he very nearly got a massive score this week, but it was not to be. MeKenna's men at least showed a lot more pluck and cohesion than they did last week in capitulating to City; they hung in quite impressively during the second half, and might feel a bit unfortunate to have ended up shipping 4 goals. However, Julio Enciso's being spared a sending-off for his horrific challenge on Endo must be the worst decision of the week - and perhaps the worst red card decision of the entire season. (I mention below Lewis-Skelly's incorrect sending-off against Wolves as one of the worst decisions of the season. But I usually write these summaries in the order the games are shown on BBC's 'Match of the Day'. This was far, far worse.)  You cannot safely challenge for a ball that is bouncing high, only inches in front of an opponent's chest. And he had no chance of getting his raised foot on the ball anyway; he was just running and jumping into his opponent with his leg coming up miles off the floor - and unsurprisingly ended up whacking the guy in the side of the face with his knee. It was the kind of foul that could easily have caused a very serious injury, even a fatality (I am frankly surprised and appalled that the injured player was not withdrawn under 'concussion protocols'; he cannot not have been concussed to some extent by an impact like that.)  And since there was no conceivable footballing justification for charging into his opponent like that, it did look very much like an act of deliberate thuggery, a wilful attempt to hurt an opponent. I hope the FA can look at this again, and impose a retrospective ban. I like Enciso's skills as a player, but he deserves to be out of the game for a long time for a challenge like that. And yet again, you have to ask what on earth VAR was doing; if the referee somehow missed how dangerous the collision was, he should have been sent to the pitchside monitor.

Newcastle still aren't looking quite at their best, but were massively improved over last week's listless performance against Bournemouth. Despite giving up an early lead to Jan Bednarek's header by forgetting to defend a corner properly, they ultimately came through about as comfortably as you'd expect against 'already relegated' Southampton; although they did have another scare when Matheus Fernandes's late breakaway goal was just offside. And Isak owners will no doubt be aggrieved that he didn't quite manage a hattrick; he had chances to add a third. At least VAR was doing its job this time, directing the referee to take another look when he somehow missed Aribo stamping on Isak's foot for the equalising penalty.

I have in the past been rather critical about Arteta's frequent whingeing about decisions, but dear, oh dear, he's really got a case this season: how many more ridiculously unjust red cards can Arsenal suffer in one year? While I don't like cynical fouls like Lewis-Skelly's, it was clearly a trip rather than a kick; he may have scraped his studs down the side of his victim's leg a bit, but it wasn't that high and there was no force behind it; and of course, deep in the opposition half, with two of his defensive colleagues well ahead of the ball, there was absolutely no question of it yet being "a clear goalscoring opportunity". It is baffling how such an experienced referee as Michael Oliver could make such a stupid, obviously wrong decision, and how the VAR officials continue to lack the balls to ever point that their onfield colleague has been sillly, even when the error is quite gross and unmistakable. That was one of the very worst decisions we've seen this season - and there have been some very, very bad ones. Hopefully, the FA will see sense, and immediately overturn it.

One might question some of Arteta's selection decisions for this one. Obviously, the late withdrawal of Martin Odegaard with an illness was a major disruption to the gameplan - but why would you replace him with the teenager Nwaneri, inexperienced, only just making his way back from an injury, and not a central midfielder.... when options like Merino or Jorginho are available?? Why rush Lewis-Skelly and Saliba straight back into the lineup after injury worries... when Kiwior and Calafiori appear to be fit to play?? (This looks again like the stifling over-reliance on favourite players that I criticised a few weeks back. primarily in reference to Pep, but noted as also sadly applicable to Mikel.)  Even before the ridiculous sending-off, Arsenal had looked miles off it, and Wolves had had the better of most of the early exchanges. Curiously, they lost momentum after the break, when Arsenal reorganised with 10 men. Nevertheless, Arsenal were quite lucky to suvive a couple of scares, when Cunha's one decent effort of the match was fingertipped away by Raya (and he then couldn't get a follow-up attempt from the subsequent corner on target...), and then Ait-Nouri's late solo breakaway brought another good save from the Arsenal keeper. Joao Gomes's rash foul to earn a second yellow card gifted Arsenal a way back into the game late on. Really, despite the injustice of their own red card, they should have been grateful to limp away from this messy match with a draw.

City and their fans will no doubt get a big lift in confidence from an ultimately comfortable win against one of their leading rivals; but to me this result really looked to be more down to Chelsea being rather poor than City being particularly good. The visitors dominated in the first 15-20 minutes, and as Maresca said afterwards, if they'd managed to get a second goal in that period (they had some good chances, particularly when Palmer and Jackson broke clear in behind, but Palmer - most uncharacteristically - very slightly overplayed the final square ball to put Jackson in on an open goal, allowing keeper and defender a chance to recover), the match would probably have turned out very differently. They really should have been able to exploit the debutant nerves of the young Uzbek defender Khusanov, who looked absolutely shell-shocked for a while after his horrible error gifted Chelsea a 10th-minute lead, and who seemed likely to make a mistake every time he got on the ball for some while afterwards. It was perhaps a sign of desperation from Pep that he threw his two new signings straight into the fray, despite having had very little time to work with them in training (and Pep having apparently acknowledged that Khusanov's inability to understand much English is a serious obstacle to onboarding him); the flakey Uzbek got pulled before the hour, and the pacey Egyptian forward Marmoush kept wasting good attacking opportunities by getting caught offside (and not by small amounts either: it's very rare in the modern game to see players regularly being off by half-a-yard or a yard - but he was). It was rather ominous, I felt, that Pep himself still did not seem to think this team or this performance were very good, sombrely noting in his post-match interview, "Without the ball.... we are one of the worst teams. We need the ball to survive."  Moreover, I felt City's goals were all somewhat lucky: to me, Nunes looked slightly offside when he broke away to create the equaliser just before half-time; and Foden might have been - very, very narrowly - for the late third; but neither of these moves appeared to get a VAR check (WTF???). And the crucial second goal would not have happened if Maresca were not persisting with the hapless Robert Sanchez in goal: his appalling error of judgement (actually, two or three errors in quick succession) gifted City the decisive momentum in the match. I would also question the selection of Reece James: presumably he is favoured for his attacking abilities, but his inclusion seems to unbalance what had been looking a nicely settled side, and defensively he looked very poor yesterday (probably still not yet fully match-fit?).

The Palace v Brentford game looked as if the players were inhibited by the miserable conditions, relentless freezing rain taking the edge off their usual energy and inventiveness. Brentford got a bit lucky with the penalty that finally put them ahead - Lacroix's initial 'foul' being highly dubious (it was silly to raise his foot that high, but the contact on the attacker's shin was so slight as to be almost non-existent; in a physical game, not every leg-on-leg contact should be seen as an offence), and then with Mbeumo being given a second crack at the kick after Guehi had foolishly encroached into the penalty area as he lashed his first effort against the foot of the left post - and then didn't respond to the rebound, allowing a Palace defender (Richards, was it?) to nip ahead of him and clear the ball. (There was an additional penalty appeal for handball against Will Hughes, which was rendered moot because the penalty 'foul' occurred only a few moments later - though, strictly speaking, both incidents should have been considered, and it should have been made clear which one the penalty was being awarded for. I feel a decision against Hughes would have been even harsher; he was instinctively raising his hands to protect his face when his own player - Guehi - lashed the ball at him from less than 2 yards away: a perfectly 'natural position' in those circumstances, and absolutely nothing he could do about it.)  Recently 'hot' Mateta didn't have much impact on the game - just one good early shot, well parried away by Flekken; Eze, similarly, didn't manage to impose himself much, and his only notable contribution was wasting two free-kicks in very promising positions (although one of them at least glanced off the outside of the far post after taking a big deflection off the wall). A good Palace move producing a late goal for substitute Esse made the closing minutes a bit tense for the visiting team, but there had never really been much doubt that Brentford deserved to win the game - and they very nearly grabbed a third at the death when Wissa's header across the box towards an inrushing Mbeumo was clumsily deflected against the post by a Palace defender and somehow slithered away to safety rather than rebounding into Mbeumo's path.

West Ham are another bottom-end club who look as if they might be recovering some cohesion and confidence under a new manager. Although Villa started brightly, with Ramsey giving them the early lead from a fine team move, and Watkins putting a header just wide a little later, a post-Champions League drop in stamina again seemed to be an issue for them, and they let the visiting team gain all the momentum in the second half. The much-fancied Morgan Rogers was particularly anonymous in this one; it was possible to be unaware that he was even on the pitch for long periods (he had a BPS score of ZERO!). West Ham were ultimately well worth their draw, unfortunate, in fact, not to have claimed the win: Paqueta lashed a good chance wide early in the second half, Carlos Soler had an effort from an acute angle (after a cross had been uncharacterstically spilled by Emi Martinez) brilliantly cleared off the line by Konsa, substitute Danny Ings was only a whisker wide with a strong drive from outside the box late in the game, and an apparent late winner (after yet another error by Martinez!) was invalidated by Soucek being offside when be pounced on the loose ball spilled by the keeper. Villa, however, can feel rightly aggrieved that Alvarez was allowed to stay on the pitch after be blatantly body-checked Kamara: there is no way that can not be a yellow card offence - and it would have been his second of the game. This is yet another instance where we see the folly of not allowing VAR interventions on second-yellow incidents. (And he should have had another mandatory yellow in the first half for kicking the ball away after the referee wrongly penalised a tackle of his - he was really riding his luck in this game!)  However, Lucas Digne was also lucky not to be expelled for jabbing his elbow in an opponent's chest while jostling for position in a line defending a free-kick; there wasn't much force in it, but there was clearly aggressive intent; it was a wanton act of petulance - deserving of a red. VAR had a long hard look at it, but then - surprise, surprise! - did nothing.

Leicester also appear to be finally finding some defensive solidity - but it was only against Spurs. And they needed their back-up goalkeeper Jakub Stolarczyk to be at his sharpest during the home side's occasional bright spells. Not much of controversy - or interest - though in this scrappy bottom-of-the-table clash; the onlly 'luck' involved being Ange Postecoglou's still hanging on to his job (presumably only because at least he's still in two cup competitions... and they might find it difficult to find a decent replacement before the end of the season; there are apparently some rumours now that Erik ten Hag might be under consideration - but Spurs fans surely wouldn't stomach the humiliation of taking on a Manchester United reject... again).

With Fulham and United both mired in a midseason slump, it was fairly inevitable that their game at The Cottage would be a lifeless borefest - the last game on 'Match of the Day' that only diehard fans of the two clubs will bother to stay up for. Lisandro Martinez's decider needed the help of a huge deflection off a defender on the edge of the box... and even so, Leno probably should have been able to tip it over. Fernandes a little later reminded everyone about the value of the 'draft-excluder' by fizzing a free-kick under the wall and into the near side-netting. United, alas, were so shakey in all areas of the pitch, they let Fulham progressively back into the game, and had to endure an uncomfortable period of sustained pressure from the home side at the end; substitute Tom Collyer had to make a brilliant headed clearance off his goalline to preserve the frail lead. But then, deep in added-on time, United appeared to have got a second goal they didn't really deserve, with another brilliant solo effort from Amad Diallo - which was ruled out by one of those offside calls so close that even when they show you the supposed 'decisive' still-frame - with the 'lines' drawn in - it still doesn't look offiside! Extremely galling for the 23.5% of FPL managers that now own him!! Ruben Amorim, meanwhile, cemented his place in the disfavour of FPL fans for yanking Rasmus Hojlund off in the 58th minute. Almost no-one owns Hojlund (just over 1.% - which I find surprisingly many!), but it's the readiness to use substitutions short of the crucial hour-mark which alarms us.

Only 2 mildly contentious (probably correct, but certainly very arguable) penalty decisions this week, but 3 absolutely awful red card decisions, and another highly questionable one, with Lewis-Skelly wrongly sent off for a trivial foul, but Enciso given only a wrist-slap for a horrific foul on Wataru Endo that should have seen him banned for a long time, while West Ham's Alvarez somehow received only one yellow card for three inescapably bookable offences.... and Digne was very fortunate to be let off for irritably jabbing his elbow into an opponent's ribcage. There were also a few goals denied by very tight offside calls (I still can't see how Diallo was judged to be offside)... and a few more (two in the City game; go figure!) allowed without any apparent VAR check of a possible offside. There has been a slight trend towards better refereeing overall in the last month or so, but this weekend felt like a bit of a step backwards again.

And then, oh my god, the results: Liverpool, Newcastle, Villa and Brighton somehow fail to keep clean sheets against bottom-of-the-table clubs - Brighton actually lose, and Villa very nearly do! City beat Chelsea surprisingly easily, without actually playing well. And Forest, lately the best defence in the league, suddenly forgot how to defend and suffered an absolute spanking??  Only Manchester United and Brentford managed to bring home the expected result of a drab, narrow win - everything else this week was a bit of a freak-show. In GW23's 'Team of the Week', there are 5 or 6 players that just about nobody owns; while major favourites like Salah, Palmer, Mbeumo and Gordon all missed out. 

On balance, I think that makes this week about an 8 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'. There weren't that many outstnding moments of skill or bizarre incidents during the play (apart from a bunch of goals from defenders again!), but many of the results were a little - or a lot - of a surprise, and there was yet again some really dire work by referees and VAR officials.

And DON'T FORGET The Boycott.  That damned new chip is in play now. So, I urge you all to quit the game in protest as soon as possible, ideally during the coming week; or at least commit to refusing to use the Assistant Manager chip, and criticise and complain about it online as much as possible.

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip