Luck-o-Meter (22)

Well, there don't seem to have been any horrendous refereeing cock-ups on Day One (well, only one); the major surprise in the first half of the 'gameweek' was the rash of unexpected results or at least near-upsets; Bournemouth thrashing Newcastle at St James's, Arsenal throwing away a two-goal home lead to Villa, Liverpool nearly losing at Brentford, and Palace and Fulham labouring to unconvincing wins against dreadful West Ham and Leicester.

The weekend began with what might be one of the biggest 'upsets' of the season so far: I mean, Bournemouth have been on an improving trend, and I had expected them to give Newcastle a tough game and not concede easily - but I don't think anyone can really have expected to see them win against the league's most in-form team, much less hand out a thorough spanking (things might have been even worse for the home side, with Ouattara unluckily - but correctly - having another effort ruled out, and substitute Jebbison wasting a golden chance from a solo breakaway in the closing minutes). It was a lively game, very entertaining, with both keepers needing to make some sharp saves to keep the scoreline down. But Newcastle were somehow not quite at the races for this one (the curse of the lunchtime kick-off, cumulative exhaustion from the hectic winter schedule, or just the mounting pressure to keep extending their long winning run??), while Bournemouth produced surely their best performance of the season. (And teenage defender Dean Huijsen had an absolute monster of game, not allowing the hitherto unstoppable Alexander Isak a kick.)

Mid-season fatigue is perhaps setting in everywhere now. Leicester started brightly at home, but just couldn't convert any of their several chances, and gradually faded through the second half. And, while they do suggest some attacking threat, their defence is still absolutely dreadful. Visitors Fulham, though, were scarecely that much better; they appeared to be playing most of the game at half-speed, and their two goals kind of came out of nowhere, rare incisive attacks in a mostly very drab performance.

Well, damn, Danny Murphy, usually my favourite of the BBC's pundits - but, of course, a Liverpool man to his boots - seemed to think that was a peak Liverpool performance. I watched it live, and thought they were miles below their best in fluidity and incisiveness; although you have to give a lot of credit to Brentford, who have suddenly become much more cohesive and resilient in defence (even Flekken is starting to look quite decent). The home side had slightly the best of things, in a close-fought, ding-dong game, at least in the first-half; and although Liverpool had a lot of attempts, most of them were hopeful shots from distance which never really troubled the keeper. Only Szoboszlai's early drive against the cross-bar, and Macalliser's stinging long-range shot that Flekken had to tip around his far post (although it was probably going just wide anyway) could be counted as 'near-misses' - their only other really close call was a first-half sitter which Cody Gakpo mishit so badly that it ended up as neither a cross nor a shot, and dribbled tamely wide of the far post. Brentford had plenty of chances, and rather better ones, of their own (how did Damsgaard not get on the end of that fierce square ball in the opening minutes, when he was unmarked three yards from goal??), but their usually clinical finishing somehow deserted them on this occasion. But of course, Liverpool's great strengths are their persistence, and their confidence in the wealth of additional talent they can bring on from the bench: Darwin Nunez is starting to make a habit of nicking winning goals deep into added-on time. But the one major controversy in this game involved the goalscorer; having already received the mandatory booking for taking his shirt off in celebrating his breakthrough goal, he should have got a second for a wild tackle on Nathan Collins moments later.... and then a third when he went on to score a second and ran into the crowd for another non-sanctioned celebration. These are absolutely clearcut, unarguable yelow-card offences - and it is a major flaw of the current officiating system that VAR is not given any responsibility for intervening on second-yellow incidents.

Thus far, Graham Potter may only have succeeded in making West Ham even worse. They were absolutely abysmal in this game, and Crystal Palace, who struggled to beat them, really weren't much better: centre-forward Jean-Philippe Mateta finally seems to be coming into some form (although he was lucky to get away with scoring the worst penalty kick we've seen all season!), but the rest of the team is really not sparking at all. Fabianski had a very bad day at the office: he really shouldn't have let Mateta beat him with a central shot from 21 yards out, made a stupid challenge on Nketiah to concede the late penalty, and then really should have saved Mateta's feeble scuffed spot-kick. I suspect Areola might be getting his starting place back soon - although he apparently has an unspecified injury problem at the moment. At least there wasn't any question about the Mavropanos sending-off; except that perhaps it should have been a straight red, for kicking an opponent in the face.

Saliba's late withdrawal with a muscle problem will have been a hard blow for the astonishing 27.6% of FPL managers that own him, and presumably invariably start him (I've never understood this over-popularity, as he is quite clearly only the third best pick from the Arsenal defence this year, after Gabriel and Timber...). And Lucas Digne's more modest 6.7% ownership were no doubt equally piqued by Emery's decision to give Ian Maatsen a run-out in his stead; although he repented of that at half-time, so Digne's starts in future are presumably now looking more secure - and he did produce one of the assists here. Saliba's absence naturally unsettled the home side a fair bit, requiring a reordering of their defence and leaving them short of muscle in the middle of the park, with Partey being switched to right-back; and it was indeed a dreadful error by Partey, losing track of Watkins and allowing him to ghost into the six-yard box completely unmarked, that let Villa in for the equaliser. Arsenal, to be fair, nearly claimed the win with a flurry of late attacks, having Merino hit a fierce shot against the base of a post deep into injury time, and Martinez then making a good save with his legs to deny Trossard on the follow-up at the near-post; then, in the dying seconds Trossard had another golden chance when played in behind by Lewis-Skelly's neat reverse pass. Arsenal will also feel disappointed that an apparent winner from Merino was disallowed for a handball by Havertz; but it was crystal clear on the replay that the ball had deflected off his forearm, and when that's part of the goal attempt, it's a 'strict liability' offence, presumed intentionality or decisive impact are not in issue. The Gunners should rather be grateful to have hung on for a point, as Villa had been a mite unlucky to see Tielemans crash a shot against the foot of the post less than a minute after his opening goal, and might well have nicked all 3 points before Arsenal mounted their late rally. Overall, though, Villa really weren't all that good for the most part, and questions have to be asked about why Arsenal couldn't make more of their first-half dominance.... and why they fell apart so badly in the second half.

Good grief - Everton have somehow remembered how to score goals! How on earth did that happen? And how long will they be able to remember the trick??  OK, it was only against an injury-ravaged Spurs, at their most Spursy, but still...  For a team who've generally struggled to find even 1 goal in 90 minutes to rack up 3 in the first half is probably the biggest surprise of the week.  And but for a trio of sharp saves by Kinsky early on, from Lindstram, Mangala, and Tarkowsky, this might have degnerated into an absolute landslide against the visitors. Spurs did assert themselves a tad more effectively in the second half, and even managed a couple of late goals to make the closing minutes a bit anxious for the home fans. But they do look really clueless at the moment; and the 'dead pool' betting on the date of Postecoglou's sacking intensifies.

You suspected André Onana was going to have one of his flakey days at Old Trafford when, after just a few minutes, he elected for a flappy punch at Joao Pedro's low cross - rather than a catch, or tipping it over his bar, or just pushing it on across his goalmouth to safety - pushing it straight forward... apparently oblivious of the fact that Danny Welbeck was bearing down on him, less than a yard away; the rebound off the Brighton man's torso might easily have flown straight into the goal, but luckily for Onana, it looped harmlessly just over the bar. Diallo appeared to have been brought down in the penalty area by Estupinan's clumsy challenge from behind, but we didn't even hear if VAR was 'looking at' that one; fortunately for the sake of justice, there was even less doubt about Baleba hooking his arm across the back of Zirkzee's head and dragging him to the floor, on a follow-up attack just moments later. The hapless Onana probably could have done more to keep out Minteh's opener, and Joao Pedro's apparent third (unluckily, bur probably rightly ruled out for a minor foul by Van Hecke), and absolutely gifted Brighton their actual third by fumbling a simple ball into the middle of his penalty area  and presenting it on a plate to Rutter. United fans are losing confidence in the big French keeper again, starting to bay for his scalp.

Forest v Southampton followed a similar pattern to the Everton game - although the hosts didn't get their foot off the gas quite so badly in the second half, and were here almost thwarted by some abysmal luck rather than anything else. In the first half, they looked as if they could score at will against an utterly limp Southampton, with a pair of screamers from Elliot Anderson and Callum Hudson-0doi, and the inevitable header from Chris Wood putting them comfortably on top. But then Ramsdale made a smart double-save from Elanga and Gibbs-White early in the second half to stop the game getting completely out of reach, and shortly afterwards the visitors pulled one back with a hopeful shot from outside the box that took a huge deflection that left Sels with no chance. Then a perfectly good 4th, when the keeper somehow mishandled Milenkovic's firm but unproblematic header from a free-kick on the left, was eventually chalked off. VAR unfathomably decided to tell Simon Hooper to take a second look, because Wood might have been marginally offside, although he wasn't in any way 'interfering' with play; but simply being sent to look at the monitor evidently prejudiced the referee into thinking that the goal must not be kosher - ridiculous decision! (At least it was the only bad refereeing gaffe of the weekend.)  At least it spared the blushes of Ramsdale, who had somehow managed to fumble a fairly simple catch and chuck it over his own shoulder into the net. Then Southampton's giant new centre-forward Paul Onuachu headed powerfully home from a corner, just as it had been announced that there would be an astonishing 12 minutes of stoppage time added (WHY?? Surely Hooper's goof-up of the Milenkovic decision didn't take that long??) - which made for a very nervous end to the game for Forest and their fans.... and meant that the most important action of the day was Ola Aina's extraordinary goal-line clearance right at the death.

Manchester City sort of got their mojo back; although proving that you're not one of the four or five worst teams in the league after all is not perhaps something to get that excited about. Ipswich looked quite lively at the start of the game, and actually made some good chances in the first 15 minutes or so - particularly Omari Hutchinson's fierce drive that went just over the bar. If one of those chances had been converted, the match might have taken a very different course. Alas, after that bright start, they began to increasingly sit back and invite their visitors on to them, which, of course, was asking for trouble. Keeper Walton letting a soft Foden effort go right through him to put City 3 up just before going into the break broke their will. However, they did still create a few moments of danger in the second half, mainly through Liam Delap; and the scoreline was harsh on them. Two of the goals were gifted to City by errors - Walton's uncharacteristic fumble of the Foden shot, and Jack Clarke's clumsy square pass that let Doku in to set up Haaland for an easy 5th - but the other 4 were all just superb finishes that no team would have been able to stop.

And a fairly miserable end to the Gameweek's woeful proceedings for all Cole Palmer owners....  Chelsea got their expected comfortable win against flailing Wolves, but Palmer somehow missed to contribute to any of the goals?? He came close, of course; had one good effort well saved by Sa early on, and set up Jackson for a neat fourth goal.... only to have it ruled out for a narrow offside! Poor guy just can't catch a break at the moment (and neither can I!).  Bit of an oddity, too, that three of the four goals here were scored by defenders!

A dubiously disallowed goal for Forest, one or two penalties that might have been given, and Darwin Nunez inexplicably escaping being sent off for a second yellow card... but overall, a pretty good week for the officiating. How I wish this was the norm, rather than the rare exception.

This week's 'luck' and surprise mostly centred on the unexpected performances, many, many thumping goals, and disappointing returns from many of the 'usual suspects': Van Dijk, the Arsenal and Forest defences, Palmer, Salah, Diallo, Mbeumo, Wissa, Gordon and Isak all blanked, while Newcastle, Manchester United, and Spurs all got badly beaten (the first two at home), Liverpool and Arsenal nearly got beaten, and Forest almost let Southampton recover a three-goal deficit to draw. Crazy stuff. While the 'Team of the Week' doesn't contain any complete randoms (Minteh, Kovacic, Chalobah, and Kluivert are the most surprising inclusions), not many of them could be said to be among the week's most expected returners. However, because of the week's mostly 'good' refereeing, I think I'm going to award this one just a modest 4 out of 10 on the Luck-o-Meter.

And DON'T FORGET The Boycott (that damned new chip will be in play after next weekend...):

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip