Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 16

I always think of December as 'Random Month': mounting exhaustion, mostly dreadful weather, and a slew of unpredictable 'rest rotations' lead to some yo-yo-ing form and a lot of unexpected results. At least on this Saturday, the sun shone... (although the second two games kicked off after dark!)... and the results all went as you'd expect. But the relegation favourites, Wolves, Burnley, Leeds, and West Ham, all put up significantly more of a fight this time, while Liverpool and Chelsea suddenly got much better again, and Forest handed out a spanking to Spurs; and the final game on Monday night ended up being a ridiculous biff-bang! And there were again a lot of rotations in the lineups... and a lot of players dropping out of games with muscle strains.

Cole Palmer's back on the scoresheet - with a slick finish from a delightfully weighted through-ball from Gusto - but he says he's still struggling with the groin injury, and, for the second week running, was withdrawn from the action a few minutes shy of the hour; so, despite a handy 6-point haul, I think my warning yesterday that we should wait a while before thinking of bringing him back was warranted. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall became the latest victim of the seasonal injury crisis, having to come off with a thigh strain after just 15 minutes. Chelsea won this one fairly comfortably, although Grealish wasted a couple of good chances in the second-half, and Ndiaye hit a post. Garnacho also squandered a couple of the game's best opportunities, one in either half, and a scorching free-kick from Reece James was well tipped over by Pickford.

Arne Slot seems to have managed to smooth things over with Mo Salah, who looked relaxed and cheerful at Anfield - despite again starting on the bench. And it was somewhat fortuitous that he got the chance to come on after just 25 minutes when fill-in right-back Joe Gomez broke down with a muscular problem (although conspiracy theorists may suspect that this was partly pre-planned, perhaps even to the extent of Gomez faking his injury...?); there being no remaining fit defensive options on his bench, Slot had to shift Szoboszlai to right-back, opening up Salah's favourite spot on the right flank. (It had looked as if they might lose Szoboszlai too, when he turned his ankle badly and seemed to be in a lot of pain; he managed to run it off in this game, but I suspect he'll be limping now, and might be a doubt for next weekend.) Salah had a fairly lively game, and was conspicuously doing his best to be a 'team player' - tracking back a little bit, and looking for teammates to pass the ball to rather than hogging it himself. He even clocked an assist for the perfect inswinging corner which Ekitike - strangely unopposed - headed powerfully home at the far post. Alas, he didn't quite complete the perfect fairytale, as substitute Chiesa unselfishly squared the ball to him after a late breakaway by the pair, but Mo shanked it over the bar! Liverpool were a bit lucky to be able to grab such an early lead, with a dreadful pass out of the corner by Baleba gifting them possession on the edge of box and enabling Ekitike to volley into the roof of the net after just 45 seconds. Liverpool utterly dominated the first half after that, but couldn't carve out any more clearcut chances; and after the break, Brighton came back into the game, with Diego Gomez just failing to convert two of the game's best chances, as well as setting up Gruda for a cross-shot that fizzed just wide of the post. Gomez, though, was probably rather fortunate to stay on the pitch after a chest-high lunge on Wirtz; there wasn't much force in the contact, but it was a wild, wild kick and very high: those get a red 9 times out of 10.

Burnley actually played some decent football going forward, and their attacking numbers, including their final xG, were - somewhat surprisingly - slightly better than Fulham's. Unfortunately, their defending has become absolutely dire, worse even than Leeds's or Wolves's. I have serious doubts as to whether Scott Parker has any idea how to sort this out (he always comes across as pretty clueless in his post-match interviews), and I suspect he'll be the next manager to be sacked; something needs to change soon at Burnley, if they are to have any hope of escaping the drop. Although Fulham will be ruing the couple of dreadful defensive lapses that almost let Burnley back into the game, they produced an excellent attacking performance: Emile Smith Rowe was again superb (apart from one awful back-pass that nearly gave away a goal!) in the central playmaker-and-goal-poacher role, but was again slightly upstaged by Harry Wilson, who bagged a late third goal to add to his assists for the first two.

More selection chaos at Arsenal to challenge the nerves of long-suffering FPL managers! Timber and Saliba, who had both appeared to be still major doubts on Friday, were able to start the game alongside each other in central defence on Saturday evening, while Hincapie was having to fill in at left-back; but Ben White pulled up with a thigh-strain after half an hour, and had to be replaced at right-back by Myles Lewis-Skelly (although, exasperatingly, he was deemed to have only stepped on to the pitch a few seconds after the 30-minute mark, and so gets no clean sheet points - despite playing well over 60 minutes without conceding; the FPL rules can be cruel sometimes!). Odegaard was unexpectedly rested, giving Eze another start. And there was further seasonal woe when Arteta withdrew Eze, Martinelli, and Zubimendi a little shy of the hour, robbing anyone who owned them of a precious 2 additional points. Arsenal survived a big early scare when a solo break by Hwang left the entire Arsenal defence sprinting the length of the field in a vain attempt to catch him (an effort which resulted in White pulling his muscle), but unfortunately his shot from the edge of the box didn't have enough power to trouble David Raya. Apart from that, it was all one-way traffic, but the league leaders just didn't have much of a cutting edge and produced few clear chances - until Wolves began to tire in the last 20 minutes or so. It took a strange slice of luck to get the breakthrough goal, with a Saka corner just eluding Johnstone, striking the inside of the far post, and then cannoning into the goal off the back of the unfortunate keeper's shoulder. But Arteta's men then suffered another huge scare when they conceded an equaliser in the final seconds of regular time. Fate again smiled on them when Yerson Mosquera headed a Saka cross past his own keeper a few minutes later. Wolves are starting to look a lot better defensively (too late to do them any real good; but their goal for the season must now surely be to avoid setting a new lowest-points record), while Arsenal are still not really looking like champions (has their 'winter wobble' begun....?).

The 0=3 scoreline at Selhurst Park didn't fairly reflect the balance of the game at all: Oliver Glasner said afterwards, not unreasonably, that he thought his side's performance had perhaps been even better than in their victory over City in the Cup Final in May; they recorded 16 attempts on goal and had a far higher xG than their visitors - but City converted nearly all of their chances, while the home side couldn't, with Mateta and Ismaila Sarr being notably wasteful a couple of times, while Pino and the excellent Wharton both rattled the woodwork. There is also a strong case that Palace should have been able to pull it back to 1-1 with a penalty, and perhaps even seen Donnarumma sent off. The big keeper had flattened Mateta in the box, and, although he clearly got a hand on the ball, he was also very obviously using his legs to take the player down, to make sure; touching the ball isn't an absolute defence when you wipe an opponent out that cynically. Doku was an unexpected omission in this game, having suffered a leg injury in training late in the week. And Phil Foden, despite having a mostly fairly quiet game (and being gently criticised by Pep afterwards for a below-par performance), came up with yet another goal from distance to extend his absurd scoring streak even further.

Matz Sels, yet another player who's been suffering from a muscle strain this week, gave way to his new Brazilian understudy, John Victor, against Spurs. Forest's trio of goals were all somewhat freakish: an easy smash-and-grab after Vicario played a hospital pass to Archie Gray on the edge of his area, a 30-yard curler from Hudson-Odoi that was probably a misshit cross, and a 23-yard belter out of nowhere from Ibrahim Sangaré. However, the margin was thoroughly deserved; Spurs were never in the game at all, and might easily have lost by twice as many. One fears that Frank's job will now be very much on the line, and that perhaps even a Christmas sacking may be on the cards. Sangaré was a most improbable candidate for the performance of the week; only around 7,500 FPL managers own him - and I'd guess most of them left him on the bench!

Newcastle yet again looked short of energy and inventiveness after a European game in the week, and were comfortably contained by a combative Sunderland. The game would surely have been doomed to remain goalless but for Woltemade's unfortunate 'Own-Goal of the Season'! However, Brian Brobbey should surely have been sent off for crunching Miley's ankle, when he'd already picked up a booking for dissent - that might have completely changed the course of the game.

Villa, having to start Bizot and Lindelof instead of Martinez and Pau Torres because of injuries, were a little shakier defensively than they have been of late, and West Ham got off to a dream start when Matheus Fernandes nicked the ball off Konsa on the edge of the box and fired past the back-up keeper from a tight angle. The visitors, though, equalised almost immediately when Mavropanos headed a John McGinn cross into his own net. It continued to be a very even, end-to-end sort of game; and West Ham were really desperately unlucky not to have claimed the winner with a neat cross-shot from Bowen which was ruled out for offside: again, no SAOT graphic was offered to justify the call, and to the naked eye it looked as if he could only have been 'off' by the thickness of the shirt over his shoulder - an unjust decision, even if technically a 'correct' one. It's also a bit of a turn-up that Morgan Rogers, who is more of a support player than a goalscorer, and had only notched 3 goals previously this season, here bagged 2, the decisive second being a 25-yard banger.

Brentford absolutely dominated their visitors, Leeds, especially in the first-half, but just weren't able to make it count. They can feel slightly aggrieved that a penalty awarded by the referee for a rather minor bit of holding on Dango Ouattara was subsequently overruled by VAR, apparently for the forward's having been 'offside' by the thickness of his eyebrow. Jordan Henderson was a little fortunate to be credited with a goal, since his effort looked as if it was heading just the wrong side of the post until it deflected off a defender. Plucky Leeds came back very strongly in the last 20 minutes, and nabbed a late equaliser with a Calvert-Lewin header. Big Dom has somehow come into a bit of form again over the last month: he suddenly finds himself on his best scoring run in over 5 years!

And then, damn, the gameweek ends with a crazy humdinger of a goal-fest at Old Trafford: Tavernier and Bruno Fernandes both banging in spanking free-kicks, Semenyo and Cunha both dramatically ending their dry spells. However, it looks rather as though some very dodgy defending may have been as much responsible for the ridiculous 4-4 final score as these occasional moments of individual brilliance. There were a couple of moments of mild controversy: United felt play should have been stopped before Evanilson netted Bournemouth's second equaliser, because Dalot was on the floor with an apparent head injury; Dalot was also involved in an angry confrontation with Semenyo, in which the Ghanaian forward briefly put his hand on the side of the full-back's neck - leading to some speculation about whether such an angrily 'raised hand' might warrant a red card (no; they both got yellows for the contretemps, which seems fair).

The FPL 'Team of the Week' isn't looking quite so crazy as it usually has so far this season - although goals from defenders (again!!) are always a bit of a surprise; and surely almost no-one was backing Sangaré or Hudson-Odoi, or even Gusto for big points. And of the 10 most popular forwards, only Haaland and Ekitike produced anything this week: Thiago, Mateta, Joao Pedro, Gyokeres, Richarlison and Watkins all drew a blank, Welbeck barely got on the field, and Woltemade somehow managed a nul-pointer! Many, many FPL managers were stuck with 1 or 2 of those non-performers in their lineup. The splurge of additional Free Transfers granted us for the approach of AFCON this week has led to some frenzied activity in the transfer market, with probably the majority of stil active managers using all or most of them straight away as a 'mini-Wildcard': that means there's probably more variety between squads than we've seen for a while, and certainly a lot of difference from last week's lineups. This has led to it being a particularly polarizing week: it looks as if a substantial majority are below - perhaps fairly well below - the very modest 'global average' of 50 points, but there's a long, long tail on our distribution curve, with many people getting hauls in the 70s and 80s, and quite a lot breaching the ton. Popular new picks Phil Foden and Harry Wilson rewarded their purchasers very handsomely; the very reasonable alternatives of Rayan Cherki and Emile Smith Rowe, not quite so much; and anyone who'd gone without any of these probably had a fairly miserable gameweek! While anyone who brought in Dominic Calvert-Lewin for Nick Woltemade must be in possession of an uncommonly reliable crystal-ball.....

At least there haven't been too many egregious refereeing howlers; just the one instance of rather questionable leniency towards Diego Gomez when he planted his boot in the side of Florian Wirtz's ribs, Brian Brobbey even more mystifyingly escaping a sending-off for a bad second-yellow foul, a possible penalty for Palace, and an impossibly tight offside against West Ham to deny them a winning goal. On top of that, the large number of goals, a few unexpected rotations, early injuries, and early substitutions make this at least a 5 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.

Dilemmas of the Week - GW16 (25/26)

Not many major new injuries seem to have emerged from this week's European games (but suspensions, especially for accumulated yellow cards, will be a hazard throughout this month), although there are a bothersome number of nebulous 'doubts' - which I feel are even more of a hassle than definite exclusions, because of the complete uncertainty about whether they'll start. Unfortunately, this is not feeling like a good gameweek for a Bench Boost (or even the Free Hit!) because of this. 

And although the European competitions are out of the way for six weeks now, there may still be an increased risk of rotations at Chelsea, Manchester City, Brentford, Newcastle and Fulham, who are all involved in League Cup Quarter-Finals next week, (Arsenal and Crystal Palace don't play their q-f until the Tuesday before Christmas.)

I'm trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 16?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Jurrien Timber supposedly picked up a knock last weekend which resulted in him being a late withdrawal from the midweek game against Brugge; very uncertain whether he'll be OK to start against Wolves on Saturday - and if he can't, Arsenal are getting stretched dangerously thin in central defence (is there a chance Rice or Norgaard might have to deputise there??). Declan Rice also missed the Brugge game because of illness, but the man is a tank and will probably bounce back straight away....?  Young Max Dowman has also picked up an ankle injury in training this week, which sounds moderately serious; he hadn't been getting many minutes so far anyway, but it's unfortunate that he now can't be involved at all until perhaps the end of January.

Emi Martinez suffered a recurrence of his niggling back-strain this week, and had to drop out of the squad for Thursday's game against Basel (and his understudy Marco Bizot really did not impress in that one). And Pau Torres suffered a calf-strain in that game, which looks likely to keep him out this weekend - Villa too are getting stretched very thin at the back; with Mings still unavailable, presumably Victor Lindelof will finally get a chance.

Marcos Senesi had to come off against Chelsea last week, feeling some tightness in his quad muscle - unclear how bad that is, Iraola was trying to be upbeat about it; but yet another 'doubtful' starter for this gameweek.

Liam Delap had to come off against Bournemouth last time after landing heavily on his right shoulder: nothing broken or dislocated apparently, but still likely to be out for a few weeks (he hadn't been playing very well anyway, and Marc Guiu really deserves a run of starts in his place; although if Palmer is now starting in the middle, Joao Pedro might shift back into a more conventional No. 9 spot). Wesley Fofana is also a doubt, having had to come off with vision problems after being kicked in the face in Tuesday's defeat at Atalanta; it sounds like it was bruising around the eye that was the problem rather than a concussion, but the 'protocols' might still be in play - and even the eye problem might not be trivial: another big doubt for the weekend. Cole Palmer was omitted from the trip to Italy, but that appears to have been merely precautionary, as he's feeling his way back from a long absence; he lasted nearly an hour against Bournemouth last week, and appeared to be moving easily.

Daniel Munoz had to have surgery on the 'minor' knee problem that unexpectedly kept him out of last week's game: probably just a cartilage issue, as he's apparently expected back in just a month or so. Jean-Philippe Mateta was omitted from Thursday's Conference League match in Ireland due to an ongoing knee niggle, but Glasner doesn't seem to think it will keep him out of the City match.

Ryan Sessegnon missed the Palace game last week because of a hamstring strain suffered in training; not too serious, but going to keep him out this week as well.

Cody Gakpo suffered a muscle injury of some kind against Leeds last week, and is now expected to be out for some weeks. At least this eases much of the uncertainty around Slot's selections: presumably Isak is now safe for a while as the No. 9 (and that might give him the confidence to rediscover his form of last year?), while the much better Ekitike can be guaranteed a regular start on the left, and Wirtz will operate more centrally - where he's likely to be more dangerous. Back-up midfielder Endo Wattara has also suffered an ankle injury in training, which will make him unavailable for a while.

John Stones has suffered yet another leg muscle problem, and is likely to be out for some weeks. He's only been a very occasional starter for City anyway; but this is an unfortunate setback for his England hopes.

Matthijs de Ligt missed last week with a back problem, and seems to be still not right now. Benjamin Sesko was apparently ready to be considered for a return after being out for over a month with a knee problem, but somehow came down with a bout of food poisoning this week. (The things people will do to avoid playing for Ruben Amorim...!!)

Joelinton had to come off in the midweek game against Leverkusen with a groin strain. Will that mean another start for Lewis Miley - or Joe Willock?

Matz Sels has also been suffering with a tight groin and was rested for the Europa League match against Utrecht - but Dyche is hoping he'll be OK again for the weekend.

Destiny Udogie missed last week's game against Brentford, and it's now been confirmed he has a hamstring strain which will keep him out for at least a few weeks.

Two of Wolves's more dangerous players, Jean-Ricner Bellegarde and Marshall Munetsi, both suffered muscle injuries in Monday's game against United, and look likely to miss at least the next six weeks.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Sunderland's Luke O'Nien is beginning a three-match ban for a 'serious foul play' red card last week against City. Moises Caicedo and Lewis Cook are serving the last part of their three-match bans this week. Burnley's Lucas Pires has a one-match ban for his 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity' offence against Newcastle. And their occasional midfielder Hannibal has just received a four-match ban for spitting at Leeds supporters in a game back in October.

Riccardo Calafiori, Kyle Walker, Kevin Schade, and Conor Bradley are the latest players to be suspended for picking up a fifth yellow card of the season. Here are the other players now getting close to a 'totting up' suspension.

Mo Salah has reportedly had 'peace talks' with Arne Slot; but given the extent of the rift between them, it seems unlikely that these can achieve much. In fact, Mo's latest mutterings seem to be suggesting that he'll only be turning up at Anfield today to 'say goodbye' to the fans. He hasn't been remotely worth having for FPL this season anyway; but, sadly, it does rather look as if his time at Liverpool is over.

It was widely expected that players competing in the African Cup of Nations tournament would have to depart at some point during the last week; but, after much manoeuvring behind the scenes as clubs have lobbied hard for players to be allowed to stay with them as long as possible, FIFA seems to have decided that their clubs don't have to release them until Monday 15th December, less than a week before the tournament kicks off. (And Manchester United have crowbarred themselves a further dispensation that will allow their trio of Mbeumo, Diallo, and Mazraoui to remain with them for their game against Bournemouth on Monday evening.) So,... none of these players should be missing this weekend. But we'll lose quite a few for Gameweek 17.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

As I predicted some weeks ago, Ebere Eze looks to have been instantly marginalised by Martin Odegaard's return; he's much less significantly involved if having to start out on the left - and last week was so ineffectual against Villa that he was replaced by Trossard at half-time.

Jean-Philippe Mateta, as I also foresaw, has been pretty unimpressive of late; and there are certainly a number of far stronger forward options you might replace him with.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Fulham players are suddenly becoming very appealing assets, because of their upcoming trio of 'gimme' fixtures. I particularly like the prospects for Emile Smith Rowe - and also United's Mason Mount, and Newcastle's Tino Livramento and Lewis Hall.

Phil Foden is on a hot streak, of course; but those tend to burn out very quickly - and he has become rather over-popular. I still fancy Jeremy Doku or Rayan Cherki (although he was chided by Pep last week for his impudent Rabona cross to set up Foden's headed goal!!) as potentially stronger picks from City for the long-term.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 15

I always think of December as 'Random Month' - mounting exhaustion, dreadful weather, and a slew of unpredictable 'rest rotations' lead to some yo-yo-ing form and a lot of unexpected results. And we seem to be getting that again this weekend, with our second set of December fixtures inside a few days. It's already looking set to be another stupendously low-scoring gameweek overall (like almost every one thiis season!!), with only Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, of all people, managing to get more than 15 points in the main batch of games on Saturday, and only 10 others scrabbling into double-digits (half of them defenders or defensive midfielders?!); nearly all the 'big names' are drawing blanks again. Oh, woe!

Arsenal's visit to Villa was a lot livelier than most lunchtime kick-offs, with some nice open football, and a few decent chances at either end: Ollie Watkins demanding a very good low save from Raya early on, and Eze appearing to have claimed the lead with a tap-in from a Saka square-ball into the six-yard-box, until VAR confirmed that the winger had made his run a fraction too early and been caught offside. It was the home side who eventually got in front, with a quick switch of play from left to right finding Mattty Cash in space on the far side of the box (Eze had momentarily fallen asleep and omitted to track him), and he was able to rifle the ball through Raya's legs from the corner of the six-yard-box. Arsenal should have been more alert to this danger, as a near-identical move had nearly produced a goal earlier, when only a brave last-ditch block from Declan Rice had thwarted a fierce half-volley from Cash just inside the penalty area. Arsenal started the second-half with all guns blazing and might have picked up 2 or 3 goals in the first 10 minutes or so; but after Trossard pounced on the leftovers of Martinez's save from a Saka cross-shot, they strangely slackened off again, allowing the home side to start coming back at them. For a while, the game was end-to-end, but Villa's pressure during the final 15 minutes became relentless, and their eventual last-gasp winner from Buendia, with literally the last kick of the game, after a protracted goalmouth melee, was well deserved, Villa are slowly growing on me: what they may lack in quality, they are more than making up for in organization and workrate, and this was their best performance of the season so far; something special was needed to end Arsenals three-month unbeaten streak, and they managed to produce it. Eze owners, though, will be reconsidering his value, in light of his being replaced by Trossard at half-time.

For me, Bournemouth did just about enough to have deserved the win against Chelsea, and it was disappointing to see Semenyo's early goal revoked after a ponderous VAR deliberation, because assister Evanilson had supposedly been offside when the ball was played to him. I have 3 big gripes about this: a) the margin was incredibly tight, allegedly just a shoulder and a knee-cap - and we really don't want to see goals disallowed for such impossibly small distances; b) you can't measure gaps like that with any convincing accuracy (it was so tight that the exact instant of the ball's leaving Alex Scott's foot would be decisive, perhaps to within hundredths of a second; but on the TV coverage, this was completely impossible to judge because Chelseaa players were blocking a view of Scott's foot); c) the SAOT graphic wasn't finally shared on TV until several minutes later (is that really how long they take to render? if they're not actually being used in the determination of the decision, what is the point of them??). Delap had to go off early after injuring - possibly dislocating? - his right shoulder after falling to the ground with Senesi on top of him in an inevitable bout of penalty area wrestling. (I have no sympathy. Delap is a thug who invites aggro - and an unnecessary number of cards for himself - with his constant niggling fouls. I think this week he picked on the wrong guy, and Senesi found a way to get him back, withou being punished for it.)  Bournemouth had the best double-chance of the match when Semenyo's crisp cross-shot was barely deflected wide by Sanchez's fingertips and then Evanilson, rushing in at the far post, somehow sliced wide from less than a yard out. Cole Palmer, finally back from injury, immediately looked lively and confident, but even his rangefinder wasn't completely dialled in as he overhit a few key through-balls; and the rest of his side were mostly misfiring as woefully as they had against Leeds a few days before.

Sean Dyche will be concerned at how anaemic his Forest looked on their visit to Everton: they hardly mustered a decent chance in the entire game, and were lucky not to go down by a small landslide. Gralish saw a fierce 20-yard effort strike the outside of the post, and Ndiaye brought a superb save from Sels in the second-half. Dyche felt that Everton's break for the first goal should have been stopped because the first pass might have touched the referee's foot as it was threaded through his legs as he gamely tried to jump over it; any such contact wasn't obvious and incontrovertible on the TV playback, and certtainly not in any way decisive. And we really don't want to see promising attacks thwarted by such trivial technicalities, much less goals that have actually been scored then being chalked off again by VAR. If the referee felt the ball didn't touch him, that ought to be decisive in a case like this. Tarkowski and Keane continue to be the league's most reliable providers of the new 'defensive points'.

City produced possibly their best performance of the season, and Sunderland one of their worst - but they were still a bit unfortunate to end up with such a drubbing at The Etihad: they really played well enough for the most part to deserve slightly better, and the final scoreline was a little flattering to the home side, who had to rely on a 25-yard belter from Ruben Dias, of all people, to give them a breakthrough after half an hour. A second goal just a few minutes later, a powerful Gvardiol header from  a corner, may have broken the visitors' spirits somewhat, but they came out for the second-half showing a lot of resolve, and were able to prevent ny further damage, apart from Foden's 65th-minute header from Cherki's impish Rabona cross (Foden did his best to loop the effort over the top, and was rather fortunate to see it just scud home off the bottom of the crossbar). Sunderland had, in fact, been unlucky not to pull one back shortly before that, when a rare mistake from Dias gifted the ball to Isidor to break through one-on-one with the keeper, but Donnarumma produced a fine block. Pep surprised people here by not rotating - apart from dropping Reijnders in favour of Cherki. And Haaland had another one of his occasional afternoons of anonymity - apart from one good hooked effort from 5 yards out that Geertruda was able to head off the line. That Haaland chance was again set up by Cherki, who also supplied substitute Reijnders with a sitter late on that he scuffed into the side-netting, and the Frenchman also had a firm cross-shot of his own well saved by Roefs - so, he was 'Man of the Match' by a wide margin, and unfortunate not to amass a huge FPL points total for the game.

Scott Parker's decision to start Armando Broja over the in-form Zian Flemming was a bit of a headscratcher - though at least the Dutchman was on for the last few minutes, and able to confidently despatch a penalty to put the visitors back in the game and give Newcastle a nervous time at the end. Burnley, I felt, were a little unfortunate to be reduced to 10 men before half-time: Lcuas Pires's challenge on Elanga was technically a foul, but the contact was fairly minimal, and looked to me as if it lacked any intent; such infractions, even if they interrupt a break on goal, don't seem to me to merit a sending-off - but the current interpretation of the rules on this seems to be veering towards 'strict liability'. Anthongy Gordon suddenly seems to be back in form, having two scorching efforts glance off the woodwork, and emphatically tucking away the penalty (disappointing for Woltemade owners, though, that he's lost that duty). And Guimaraes got the opener by swinging his corner directly into the far top corner, a real once-in-a-season (at most!) kind of freak event! At least here VAR was doing its job properly, twice intervening to correctly award penalties that the referee had initially missed.

Spurs were much improved for the visit of Brentford, inspired by the performance of Xavi Simons, suddenly brimming with energy and confidence again after several very frustrating weeks. Brentford were out-of-sorts, and were fortunate not to go down more heavily: Djed Spence had a shot well-saved by Kelleher, and Pape Sarr just couldn't get his feet sorted out to crack off the shot when the ball fell to him unmarked in the middle of the box and he had the whole goal to aim at for what seemed like several seconds - before he finally scuffed his effort straight at the keeper. A very promising turnaround for Spurs - and you wonder if this result might just possibly have saved Thomas Frank's job; he would surely have been in a world of trouble if he'd lost this one to his former club.

Arno Slot brought Bradley and Kerkez back in as his full-backs for the visit to Leeds, gave Macallister a rest in favour of Curitis Jones, sttarted Ekitike up-front instead of the misfiring Isak, and left Salah on the bench for the third successive game (unsurprisingly, he seems to be very unhappy about this; a move to Saudi next month is now a racing certainty, I fear...). I fret that all this rotation is born of desperation rather than calculated variation and managing of minutes, and is only likely to produce disgruntlement in the players suddenly dropped. The home side seemed to have rather the better of the exchanges in a fairly uneventful first-half, but Liverpool gained momentum when Ekitike stole a loose ball to slot past Perri early in the second; he notched his brace only a couple of minutes later, and nearly set Gakpo up for a third shortly after that. If Perri hadn't got a crucial hand to that effort, the game would surely have been done-and-dusted. But Liverpool strangely slackened the pace from that moment, and as Leeds gamely came back at them, they got a bit lucky with a very soft penalty decision against Konate (he barely made any contact, and it could be said to have been 'initiated' by Gnonto, who was going down already, just hopping over - and into - the defender's leg as he slid across between him and the ball). Calvert-Lewin, reported as a doubtful starter because of a calf problem, was playing, and on peanlties, and managed not to miss this one - a triple slice of good luck for anyone who happened to be on him this week (amazingly, nearly 100,000 do own him; although I'd suspect most would have left him on the bench). And then the Liverpool defence all decided to play statues while Anton Stach cantered through the middle of the box unopposed and slotted home an equaliser - to set up a thrilling final quarter of an hour in what had, up to then, been a mostly pretty dreary game. Liverpool quickly got back in the lead with a quick break culminating in a slick finish from Szoboszlai, but then they once more relaxed their grip on the game, allowing Leeds to come back at them yet again. And Slot will be especially alarmed and perplexed that his erstwhile impregnable defence completely failed to defend a corner in the dying minutes, allowing substitute Tanaka to volley home another equaliser at the far post. On balance, Leeds looked well worth the point here, while Liverpool were perhaps lucky to come away with that much. Slot is now favourite to be the next EPL manager to be sacked. I still don't see that happening quite yet; but if he can't start to turn things around within another month or so, I think it will (and an apparent revolt by their most iconic player, for which he must surely take much of the blame for poor man-management and failed communication, won't help his cause).

The first-half of the Brighton v West Ham game was a 45 minutes that made you question your life choices: a stupendously dull and inept slice of football. At least both sides came out with greatly increased urgency after the break, but execution was still largely lacking, as again and again passes were overhit, misplaced, miscontrolled. Verbruggen made a superb double-save from Bowen and Summerville early in the second period (he looks to me the most in-form goalkeeper in the league over the last several games), but West Ham started looking immediately more dangerous with the introduction of Callum Wilson for the last 20 minutes, and he soon helped to produce a chance for Bowen to put the Hammers ahead. But Brighton have an impressive record for coming up with goals in the later stages of matches, and a sustained spell of pressure justifiably led to Rutter (although he'd had rather a poor game up to that point) claiming an equaliser just as the game moved into added-on time. Nuno is understandably, and perhaps rightly, upset that the goal was allowed to stand, since there was a hint of possible handball by Rutter on an earlier shooting attempt (looked to be on the upper part of the upper arm, and the ball cannoned on to the arm off the torso; so, it would have been a very harsh decision); there was, however, a much stronger case (which VAR did not seem to have considered) for 'dangerous play'against Kostoloulas, whose overhead kick did make like contact with Mavorpanos's forehead.

Fulham v Palace was a close-fought and fairly entertaining game, producing two of the best goals of the weekend, from Eddie Nketiah and Harry Wilson. The match was somewhat blighted, though, by yet another ridiculous VAR decision on an offside - Smith Rowe's goal, following up on a thurderous Iwobi header which had crashed against a post, was eventually disallowed for a supposed offside by winger Chukwueze at the start of the move, although the SAOT picture appeared to show that the margin was the riffling of the fabric of his shorts; even under the current insane definition of the offence, that decision ought not to have been made. This aberration perhaps balanced the scales of justice, though, as Joachim Andersen had earlier got away with clattering Nathaniel Clyne on the edge of the penalty area; the referee had somehow let it go, and VAR seemingly didn't want to intervene because it might have been outside the area (it wasn't). The home side had looked comfortably on top for most of the second half, but Palace roused themselves to a determined surge in the last 15 minutes, and were eventually rewarded with Guehi's late headed goal from a corner. The firecracker form of Chukwueze down the left flank (probably off to AFCON soon, alas) and another impressive display from Smith Rowe, thriving in the central role as a No. 10, will be some consolation to Fulham fans. The biggest news for FPL was the surprise omission of Daniel Munoz (to give a rare run-out for the long neglected Clyne).

Manchester United finally managed a decent win again on Monday night, although it was only against woeful Wolves - and even there, they made life difficult for themselves by conceding an equaliser on the stroke of half-time, but they came out strongly after the break and ended up comfortable winners. Amorim once again baffled FPL managers with his selection, starting Dalot rather than Dorgu on the left, and Mazraoui, Heaven, and Shaw as his centre-backs, while dropping the recently impressive Joshua Zirkzee up front. And Bruno Fernandes was rather fortunate to earn such good points in the game, his first goal being a weak, somewhat mishit effort that somehow dribbled through Johnstone's legs, and the second a very unjust penalty award (Mosquera did lean towards the shot, but he was trying to pull his arm behind his body, and the ball clearly struck his upper arm, near the shoulder - there was no way that was a penalty; and the referee appeared to have a good view of it the first time, so there was no call for VAR to tell him to take a second look).

The FPL 'Team of the Week', always one of the strongest indicators of how the tides of 'luck' are flowing each week, turns out to be yet another freakshow only Gvardiol and Foden have any significant FPL ownership (and Bruno Fernandes, who gained late - and highly fortuitous - accession to 'Player of the Week'!). Moreover, it's been another gameweek with a painfully low 'global average' of just 49 points; and another gameweek in which the points distribution seems to be heavily skewed towards the low side - the great majority of managers actually getting somewhat below that average, and only a long thin tail, a lucky handful, achieving scores in the 80s, 90s, or low 100s; not that many - in my mini-leagues, anyway - getting much over 50, in fact! However, we do seem to have been, for once, relatively free of refereeing cock-ups in this gameweek, although there has been at least one likely penalty overlooked (for Crystal Palace), one unfairly given (for Manchester United), a couple of very dubious offside calls denying goals, and the probably wrongly allowed late equaliser for Brighton. Outlandish events like a goal direct from a corner, a few more rotation nightmares, 'blanks' from almost all the most popular FPL picks, quite a high tally of 30 goals (5 of them from defenders!!) and just 4 clean sheets, and 'upset' results for Liverpool and Arsenal... still make this at least a 5 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'

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Dilemmas of the Week - Gameweek 15 (25/26)

Amazingly, we seem to have been spared too many new injury concerns in this packed week of league fixtures (although suspensions, especially for accumulated yellow cards, will be a hazard throughout this month), so this rundown can once more be a relatively concise one.

I'm trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 15 of the season?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Christhian Mosquera suffered a leg injury in the game against Brentford in midweek (still not clear exactly what, or how serious, but seems likely to keep him out for a few weeks at least). With Saliba still doubtful, it seems likely that Timber will now play alongside Hincapie in the centre, making room for Ben White to return at right-back (he started there anyway on Wednesday - apparently just to give Timber a rest - and turned in a 'Man of the Match' performance!); but both of those could be very short-term assignments: once Saliba is back, it's quite likely that Timber and White will again be contesting, and perhaps rotating the right-back slot. Declan Rice also had to come off with a knock in that Wednesday night game, but it doesn't sound too serious.

Emi Martinez was a last-minute withdrawal from the Wednesday game against Brighton with a back problem, so it seems likely that Marco Bizot will continue to deputise for him for a little while.

Yasin Ayari also had to miss out on that Villa match with a muscle strain suffered in training. And the young Greek striker Stefanos Tzimas had to come off in that game with a knee injury that might be quite serious.

Burnley defender Axel Tuanzebe missed out on the Wednesday game against Palace because of a training knock, and is expected to be out for a couple of weeks. (This might actually be to Burnley's advantage, if it spares him from an AFCON call-up... Conspiracy theorists might indeed speculate that the injury is purely fictitious.)

Sandro Tonali may be a slight doubt, after apparently suffering a dead-leg in the game against Spurs.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin suffered a calf-strain in the surprise win over Chelsea, and could now be out for a few weeks, while Leeds's first-choice striker, Lukas Nmecha, might be out even longer after apparently pulling a hamstring in that match. Presumably, Joel Piroe will now finally get a chance to start up front for them.

Matthijs de Ligt missed out on Thursday's West Ham game with a training knock, but Amorim hopes he might be OK again to face Wolves on Monday night. If he's not, United are getting stretched a bit thin at the back! Diogo Dalot was also struggling with a leg-muscle problem at the end of the West Ham game, but that appears to be not too serious....

Destiny Udogie hasn't quite got back to his best since his return from injury, and appeared to be limping heavily at the end of Tuesday's draw at Newcastle - so, might give way to Djed Spence again this weekend.

Wolves left-back Hugo Bueno missed the Forest game in midweek because of a back-muscle problem, and Marshall Munetsi suffered a calf-strain in that match (although the cynic in me again suspects the club are playing up that one to try to get him out of going to AFCON with Zimbabwe)

Does anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Bournemouth's Tyler Adams, Everton's Tim Iroegbunam and Wolves's Joao Gomes are the latest players to have to miss a match for collecting a 5th yellow card. These are the other players now getting close to a 'totting up' suspension.

Moises Caicedo and Ryan Christie have the second instalment of their three-match 'violent conduct' bans this weekend, and Idrissa Gueye is serving the last part of his suspension for slapping Michael Keane for a loose pass out of defence.

West Ham defender Igor Julio is on loan from Brighton, so ineligible to turn out against the parent club this week.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

'The Sheep', of course, are getting terribly excited about Phil Foden. But I'm still nervous of Pep Roulette, especially at this very busy time of year (and especially because, in recent years, Pep has often seemed to bench him, for no obvious reason, precisely when he's appeared to be coming into top form - almost as if he just doesn't want him to get too big for his boots?!). I still think City's team form isn't stable enough for it to be worth betting on more than one of their midfielders (and maybe not more than one of their players from any position in addition to the, for now, still 'essential' Haaland), and Jeremy Doku still looks likely to be the most regular and reliable points scorer from them. But with a make-or-break Champions League game away to Real Madrid next Wednesday, this weekend's selection at The Etihad is even more of a lottery than usual; it does seem dangerously likely that several top players - perhaps even Haaland - will get only fairly short minutes, or perhaps remain on the bench throughout.

The imminent Early Christmas Present of extra transfers to help us get over AFCON means that this weekend, Gameweek 15, could in effect be a mini-Free Hit: we are incentivised to use all our existing transfers at once (to gain maximum advantage from the extra ones available after the deadline passes), but we could undo all those changes again immediately the next week if we wanted to (the splurge of additional Free Transfers in GW16 being effectively a mini-Wildcard for that gameweek, or one of the ones soon following).

AFCON itself is not likely to be directly much of an issue (apart from Salah [why does anyone still own him??], Mbeumo is the only high-owned player affected; Semenyo and Kudus are not taking part in this year's tournament), although it may lead to some interesting fluctuations of form and revision of team selections in teams that are losing key players.

Also - REMEMBER, the 1st Round of the FPL Cup is this weekend!!

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 14

I always think of December as 'Random Month' - mounting exhaustion, dreadful weather, and a slew of unpredictable 'rest rotations' lead to some yo-yo-ing form and a lot of unexpected results - particularly in a set of midweek fixtures like this. Sure enough, here we've seen surprise wins for Leeds and Everton, and ridiculous ding-dong matches at Fulham, Brighton, and Newcastle!

Bournemouth will feel a little unlucky that they couldn't make their superiority count in a fairly dour game against Everton. Semenyo had a strong first-half shot well-parried by Pickford, and just before the break Kroupi appeared to have put the home side ahead with a slick run to the near-post, but was caught just offside by Adli's unnecessary touch on Kluivert's cross as it came through to him. It was left to Jack Grealish (of all people - he hadn't registered an attacking return, or, really, come closing to doing so, in the last 6 games!), to break the deadlock on a quick break through the middle; although he was a bit lucky to be credited with the goal, as his shot might not have been on target, and surely wouldn't have beaten Petrovic without an enormous deflection off the shin of Diakite.

At Fulham on Tuesday, Haaland looked much sharper than he had at the weekend against Leeds; but still things seemed to be not quite clicking for him at first, as he crashed an early left-foot shot against the foot of the post. But it didn't take him long to make amends, as he lashed home a Doku cross from the penalty spot. He later added a couple of assists as well (the first a nicely weighted through-ball to Reijnders, but the second merely fortuitous, as he miscontrolled a cross which then fell to Foden at the far post), to give him his second-best haul of the season so far (salt in the wounds of all those FPL managers who'd been so sorely disappointed by their Triple Captaincy bet on him on Saturday), and might indeed have had more, as he hit the woodwork again in the second-half, with a thunderous header. But having been 3-0 up in the game just before half-time, and 5-1 ahead inside 55 minutes, Pep will surely be furious with his team that they allowed the home side to claw their way back into the contest - wih stunning strikes from Iwobi and Chukwueze (twice!) - to set up a very nervous end to the game. Indeed, Fulham very nearly pulled off a record-setting comeback, with a Josh King effort in added-on time having to be lashed off by the line by a back-pedalling Gvardiol. One of the games of the season - and one that somehow furnished its own mini 'Goal of the Month' competition!

At Newcastle, Van de Ven, Richarlison, and Gordon were the rest rotations de jour. The home side were completely on top at first, with Joelinton cracking a low cross-shot against the inside of the far post. But a little later, Spurs enjoyed a little spell of pressure, and Bergvall almost nicked the lead with an impish back-heeled volley from Kudus's cross. Newcastle looked even more dominant in the second half, and will be baffled as to how they didn't manage to score more than just Guimaraes's goal - and how they were later punished with a late Spurs fightback, where two late goals from Remero, a brave stooping header at the near-post then a shinner of a bicycle-kick (that Ramsdale probably should have been able to keep out), stole two of the points from them - twice in quick succession. Newcastle had quickly regained the lead from a Gordon penalty (he'd only just come on as a substitute), but couldn't hang on to it.

Arteta didn't endear himself to the FPL community by resting the massively popular Timber and Saka here (although Timber got on at half-time, to replace Mosquera in central defence, and Saka played the last half-hour or so), and Saliba still wasn't fit to play. Also, you have to worry that the gaffer's continuing to start Merino in preference to the fit-again Gyokeres must be dampening the Swede's confidence. White and Madueke were so good here that you wonder if they might have staked a claim to a more regular start: Madueke could operate also on the left wing (displacing Eze?), but Timber would have to give way for White, who was outstanding here (for once, his BPS rating was in accord with the 'Man of the Match' award - that doesn't happen nearly often enough!). Saka's cameo was long enough to nick a late goal in added-on time; and he should really have had 2, since he'd misshit a sitter a few minutes earlier. Brentford never really got in the game here, though Arsenal were well below their best - mostly huffing and puffing to little avail, as they had against 10-man Chelsea at the weekend.

In-form Danny Welbeck was rested for the visit of Villa, and that may have cost Brighton dearly. Marco Bizot, rather bizarrely given a start in goal over Emi Martinez, immediately looked likely to be a costly decision as well, as he flapped ineffectually at an early corner to allow Van Hecke to put Brighton ahead with a free header (although Villa had a point that a corner shouldn't have been awarded, since the ball had clearly gone out off a Brighton player). Like Wirtz at Anfield, Hinshelwood was unfortunate to be denied a goal after his fine break down the left put the home side 2-0 mup; but in this case, his shot had looked well wide of the far post before Pau Torres unluckily got a toe on it to divert it past his keeper. In a bizarre ding-dong of a match, though, Villa rallied strongly, and got back in the game with a brace of goals from Ollie Watkins just before the break; the second, in the dying seconds of added-on time, rounded off a bizarre sequence of play where Konsa was convinced he'd scored from a corner, but the ref said the goalline technology hadn't indicated the ball was fully over the line, Brighton immediately broke down the other end on a quick counter, but Gruda wasted the chance, and then Pau Torres pinged a long ball over the middle to Watkins to launch a counter-counter - and the big forward did well to resist three Brighton defenders closing in around him before getting off his low shot past Verbruggen. Onana put the visitors in front by heading home a corner on the hour, and then substitute Malen (how is he not starting??) stabbed home a fourth in a goalmouh scramble. But this topsy-turvy game still wasn't done, as Van Hecke (again?!) fired in a cracker from the edge of the box in the 83rd minute to give Villa an anxious end to the game - and Bizot was able to redeem himself with a point-blank save from Welbeck's header (he'd come on as a sub for the last 20-odd minutes). For me, this was yet another game where Villa didn't really seem to have deserved the win, but things somehow broke for them at the right time

Burnley v Palace was a close-fought encounter, with the home side defending resolutely, and creating some attacking danger: Henderson needed to make a couple of smart saves, and they nearly nicked an equaliser in added-on time at the end when Henderson missed a cross under pressure from Broja, and the ball fortuitously looped off the Albanian's back towards the goal, but was cleared from the goalmouth by Chris Richards. Another goal from Munoz, emphatically converting Guehi's great early cross from the left, made the difference.

With Caicedo suspended, Maresca probably couldn't afford the luxury of resting Reece James (and Garnacho, and Estevao, and - still - Palmer), but he did anyway, and thus we saw another downward swing of the Chelsea yo-yo. Although the home side managed to stay on top in most of the possession stats, Leeds completely dominated on chances created, and might well have gone even further ahead in the first-half. However, Chelsea might feel a little aggieved that they didn't get a penalty when Struijk's clumsy slide tripped Delap just inside the box; VAR didn't even seem to consider this as a possible missed call by the refere. A goal from Neto early in the second-half briefly gave Chelsea some momentum again, although they were somewhat fortunate not to concede a third goal almost immediately from Nmecha; this time it was Leeds who might have felt rather hard done-by, as the goalscorer was penalised for having been briefly offside much earlier in the move - how many touches of the ball and repositionings of the defensive line do there have to be before we're considered to be in 'a new phase of play'?? When Leeds eventually nicked a third, after a horrendous mix-up between Tosin and Sanchez, it seemed well deserved. Palmer got on for the last half-hour, but wasn't able to make much impression for his struggling side: he had one good scoring chance, but his first-time shot went the wrong side of the near-post.

Liverpool v Sunderland was a fairly drab affair, with Trai Hume's fierce 25-yard drive needing to be tipped on to the crossbar by Alisson the only really good chance in the first-half (though Wirtz, starting to look livelier in the last few games, had earlier come close to threading the ball through Roef's legs to claim his first league goal). Salah, again omitted at the start, was introduced for the second-half, but had little impact. Sunderland in fact looked livelier and more dangerous after the break at first, and deservedly took the lead with Talbi's long-range effort - though it probably wouldn't have troubled Alisson without a substantial deflection off Van Dijk's bum. Witz did in fact get the home side back on terms fairly quickly, with a neat low shot after a weaving run - but it was rather harshly credited as an own-goal after deflecting off Mukiele's shins (harsh on both attacker and defender; I don't think you could clearly determine that the initial shot was off-target....). Liverpool then went hunting for a winner in the closing minutes, but nearly got caught on the counter by Isidor, who eventually managed to round Alisson only to be thwarted by a goal-line block by Chiesa, who'd made a heroic recovery run to get back and cover . A fine draw for Sunderland, to keep them above Liverpool in the table. But things just keep getting worse for Arne Slot: there now seems little rationale for starting either Salah or Isak, other than desperation.

Morgan Gibbs-White, who had been a doubt beforehand with an ongoing back problem, was able to start at Wolves, which no doubt helped the visitors to assert their superioriy, Igor Jesus was denied his debut goal for Forest (well, made to wait a little longer for it...) by yet another of these 'interfering with the keeper' offside decisions against Dan Ndoye: fair enough on the rules as they stand, but implementation seems inconsistent at the moment, and it's always a bit hard on the goalscorer. Neco Williams, having won a free-kick in a good position by drawing a double-foul just outside the box, decided to take it himself and brought a very good save out of Sam Johnstone at the foot of his far post. Forest's class began to tell, and they increasingly dominated through the second-half, although it wasn't until the 72nd minute that Jesus's goal finally broke the deadlock.

United fans will be peeved they could take all 3 points off struggling West Ham, but for all their dominance of possession, they didn't really produce many clearcut chances. An improvised effort from Zirkzee, again filling in as a centre-forward for the injured Sesko, guided towards goal with his thigh, was headed off the line by Wan-Bissaka, and a follow-up volley from Bruno Fernandes a few moments later grazed the outside of the post; but that was as close as they got, until Diogo Dalot, of all people, fired home from around the penalty spot on the hour mark. Amorim will no doubt be exasperated that his side couldn't defend a corner properly in the closing minutes, Mazraoui heading clear off the line but steering the ball straight to Magassa who graretfully fired it straight back in. The only mild moment of controversy in a fairly dull game appears to have been a muted appeal for a penalty for Bryan Mbeumo in the second-half: Todibo was asking for trouble for dangling a leg out in the United forward's path, but Mbeumo appeared to have jumped over the obstructing limb without making sure that he made some contact with it - and probably should have been booked for 'simulation'.

The FPL 'Team of the Week' isn't looking quite so crazy as it usually has so far this season; although only Haaland (and perhaps Foden) and the Palace defence are likely to have been in many people's line-ups. At least there doesn't seem to have been any terrible refereeing in this batch of games: although Brighton got their first goal from a corner that shouldn't have been given, and Chelsea were mysteriously denied a penalty (yet again: they really have been conspicuously abused on these decisions since the end of the 23/24 season!!); and there were also a number of dubiously attributed - non-attributed - goals that only went in with the aid of big deflections from defenders (Grealish's looked particularly questionable). Ultimaely, though, there don't seem to have been too many of the usual elements of 'LUCK' in this Gameweek - apart from the multiple rest rotations, the occasionally topsy-turvy form, and the large number of goals and unexpected results. I think all of that probably makes it just about a 6 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.

Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 13

After a number of mostly quite drab gameweeks lately, this one was looking set to be a belter, with non-stop action in all of Saturday's encounters; though Sunday was most a bit of a comedown from that rush. It's also potentially an object lesson in not getting too excited about an apparently 'unbalanced' set of fixtures as a Free Hit (or Bench Boost) opportunity, as games often do not turn out at all as expected. City didn't keep a clean sheet against bottom-of-the-table Leeds, and were ultimately lucky to nick a late win; Brentford had a really tough time getting past stubborn Burnley, Bournemouth didn't manage their expected win over Sunderland (though no side should really be fancied to beat Sunderland at home at the moment!), Spurs lost at home to lowly Fulham (again, that shouldn't have been completely unexpected on recent form), Palace came up short at home against a not-that-impressive Manchester United, and Newcastle finally managed to win away from home - while putting 4 past the usually adamantine Everton defence, but not keeping a clean sheet themselves either. FPL managers might have been picking up some good points on attacking assets (except Haaland!!), but defences took a battering. - with only the often leaky Liverpool and Villa back-lines coming away with clean sheets this weekend.

Brentford were making heavy weather of their home game against bottom-of-the-table Burnley, failing to break down the visitors' resolute defence despite massive domination of possession for long spells,.... until there was an improbable flurry of goals in the last 10 minutes. It was nice to see Thiago quickly lay to rest any concerns that last week's awful penalty flub may have undermined his confidence, as he not only banged in a very confident penalty here, but also notched a fine finish from open play. There is, however, an element of doubt about that penalty award: Tuanzebe, although he was playing through the back of Ouattara, did seem to get a very clean touch on the ball through the striker's legs (and if this was a penalty, Van de Ven's very messy challenge in the late game should have been as well!); this seemed like yet another instance where VAR just didn't want to get involved, was just willing to accept whatever the referee's initial call had been.

Oh dear, yes, Erling Haaland - with that dread inevitability that makes Fantasy Premier League such an exasperating game - drew a 'blank' this weekend, for only the fourth time this season, thus breaking the hearts of nearly 1.25 million managers (I'd thought it would be more) who had punted their first Triple Captain chip on him. Surprises that might ultimately have had even greater impact in FPL though - well, apart from the Leeds second-half comeback, which left the home side rattled, and nearly threatened with a most unexpected defeat - were the unexplained omission of the recently excellent Rayan Cherki (a particularly perverse and inscrutable Pep decision, which must have infuriated his more than 600,000 owners, 100,000 of whom had only just brought him in this week!), and a sudden reappearance of Peak Phil Foden, who rediscovered his scoring boots after a long string of mostly fairly anonymous performances in the league, and only a solitary assist in the last 8 starts (to add insult to injury for many, he pretty much stole his first goal off Haaland's toe!). It is curious - almost uncanny - that Foden was one of the most popular picks for managers going with a Free Hit play this week; there was no obvious rationale for that in form or tactics (lately, he's been started in a deeper midfield position, which is why he hasn't often been threatening much in the final third), while Doku and Cherki have been far more productive options in the last few games; those folks who picked him must have access to a crystal ball (that actually works)!! 

Also, I think there might have been a case for Gvardiol to receive a red card for his ridiculous, nearly waist-high lunge on Nmecha: that must surely have been open to consideration, at least, as a 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity', and arguably perhaps also as 'endangering an opponent' (his defence there would be that it was more of a block than a tackle, attempting to throw his body between the opponent and the ball to bar his progress; but it was very ugly, he was very high and out-of-control, he did make contact, he did bring the player down....); yet neither the referee nor the VAR team seemed to spend any time considering that at all, because.... officials just don't give big decisions like that against one of the big clubs when they're playing at home.....  Gvardiol had already been fortunate to have his headed goal from a corner stand, to put his team 2-0 up, as Bernardo Silva had clearly backed into Perri on the goal-line, and then had a cheeky little tug at the inside of his elbow as the keeper pushed past him; it wasn't much, but it was enough, I think, to class as clear 'interference' with the keeper's movement, the sort of infraction we're often seeing given these days,.... except when it's against City at home.

Very much the proverbial 'game of two halves' this one, with Leeds doing well to weather a storm of early pressure (Perri making outstanding saves from Foden and Gonzalez, and a few other fierce efforts from around the edge of the box being well blocked by heroic defending), and then coming out after the interval with renewed energy and purpose - able to take advantage of City rather taking their foot off the gas for a while. It was ultimately a very, very fortunate escape for City, whose title hopes would have suffered a huge blow if they'd let any points slip away here, let alone all of them. I also fret rather that Haaland didn't just have a 'quiet' game, but actually looked heavy-legged and completely devoid of his usual spark throughout; I wonder if he's carrying an injury niggle of some sort (or maybe his baby just had a bad night and stopped him getting any sleep....?). The optimists will say that it was all part of Pep's gameplan that he should just be content to plod around in Zones 14 and 17, attracting two or three Leeds defenders to him all the time, so that other teammates could more readily find space. I hope it was that, but I don't find it a very convincing thesis.

Sunderland showed tremendous spirit to fight back and eventually claim a win, after falling behind to a pair of stunning goals within the opening 15 minutes (Tyler Adams's long-range lob was from the edge of the centre-circle, even further out than Richarlison's very similar goal last week: they'll probably make it a two-horse race for the latest 'Goal of the Month' prize!). Antoine Semenyo was showing no sign of his recent injury problem, comfortably lasting the full game; but his 6.5 million owners will be irked that he was twice denied an assist - when his superb low cross set up a close-range Evanilson effort that was somehow turned on to a post by Roefs in the opening minutes (although Adli followed up to claim the first goal), and in the second-half, when Evanilson was guilty of a very tight offside when unnecessarily prodding home Semenyo's effort on the goal-line (although his cross-shot had probably been off-target until taking a deflection through a defender's legs, so again it would probably only have been an assist); and then near the end he picked up a booking, apparently for arguing slightly too vociferously with one of the referee's many rather questionable decisions. This game really was on a knife-edge throughout (and, unfortunately, became rather ill-tempered in the closing minutes), with both keepers earning 'saves' points, and Marcus Tavernier coming agonisingly close to a third goal for Bournemouth with a fierce 20-yard half-volley that smashed against the underside of the bar. Best game of the weekend!

Lots of surprises in the Newcastle line-up at Everton: at least Pope's replacement in goal by Ramsdale was supposedly down to a late injury problem, but the selection of Miley over Tonali and Elanga over Murphy were headscratchers - presumably rest rotations after their midweek trip to Marseille. The changes worked out fairly well, though, as Newcastle, so often ineffectual on the road over the past few seasons, and especially straight after a European game, here were lively and on the front foot from the kick-off, and actually managed to look more like the home team; while Everton, perhaps suffering from the absence of Idrissa Gueye to give them some steel in the middle, looked oddly defensively vulnerable, especially at set-pieces. However, after going 4-0 up in under an hour, Newcastle relaxed a bit too much, and Everton came back at them quite strongly: Barry was unlucky to have a goal ruled out for an accidental touch on his arm as he brought the ball under control, and Carlos Alcaraz unleashed the hardest shot I've seen in years - a 20-yard-rocket that must have nearly broken the crossbar.

Spurs's woes at home continue, as they managed to concede 2 bad goals in the opening 6 minutes - and very nearly even more, in a rampant spell of early pressure from Fulham: new winger Samuel Chukwueze was unlucky to see his crisp curler glance off the outside of the far post. He was also unfortunate not to get a penalty, when a rash and untidy lunge from Van de Ven rather fortuitously dispossessed him, although it was completely through the back of him and also brought him down; I don't know how that didn't at least merit a 'second look', particularly as a similar, but much less egregious challenge in the Brentford game earlier had resulted in a penalty award. Spurs fans will lay most of the blame for another embarrassing result at the doorstep of goalkeeper Vicario, who not only committed a string of horrendous errors to give away the crucial second goal (shouldn't have come for the ball in the first place, was lucky to be able to claim it, should have put it into touch when he saw he had no support, rather than trying to hoof it upfield without even looking properly, hence giving it straight back to Fulham;... and, for me, although he probably would have had no chance of stopping Harry Wilson's perfect curler into the empty net, he should at least have sprinted to try to get back), but looked visibly rattled and error-prone thereafter, flapping at crosses and so on; great shot-stopper though he is, I've never felt that he looks secure enough in his all-around game to be a Premier League keeper. I suspect poor Thomas Frank is now the favourite to be the next manager to be sacked - unless he can turn results and performances around very quickly.

Well, I suppose it was inevitable that we'd have a bit of a comedown after the rollercoaster excitement of the Saturday games, and The Curse of the Early Kick-off may have been in play as well, but the noon game between Crystal Palace and Manchester United was stupendously dull. Even after United had nicked 2 quick goals out of nothing early in the second-half (an excellent snap half-volley on a very acute angle wide on the left of the box from Zirkzee, and Mason Mount apparently catching Henderson by surprise with a quick free-kick punched low through a gap in the wall), and the home side had to go chasing a result,.... things didn't really pick up very much. I thought Mateta's opening penalty in the first-half was a bit of a soft award: Yoro probably did make contact with his lower leg, twice; but both such light touches that they shouldn't really even have put the big forward off his stride, let alone brought him crashing down. I'm all in favour of punishing such exaggerated responses with a yellow card for 'simulation' - even if they have been prompted by some contact. I think this is also the first time we've seen a penalty have to be retaken under the new rule that a double-touch by the taker is a 'forgivable error' (I do not like this rule: it is absolutely avoidable, and it's the kick taker's responsibility to make sure that it doesn't happen; if he fails to do so, he deserves to have squandered his chance of converting the kick). Yoro was taken off after only 54 minutes, and didn't look at all happy about it; this looks like more poor man-management from Amorim. And Ismaila Sarr went off well before half-time, having apparently jarred his ankle (and/or knee?) in hurdling a challenge early in the game. So, owners of either of those players in FPL (not many!) would be especially unhappy with this turn of events. We also saw an egregious example of the frailty of the BPS, and the general unsatisfactoriness of scoring and stat-compiling in this game failing to take any account of qualitative factors, in that Bruno Fernandes was credited with 2 'assists' - one, a hopeful chip into the box for Zirkzee, in a position where he could not score (yet, miraculously, he somehow managed to), and the other simply rolling a free-kick a few feet sideways for Mason Mount to have a pop at driving the ball through a gap in the wall; neither of these actions in any way 'created' the goalscoring opportunity, so, in commonsense terms, they should not be considered 'assists'. Moreover, because so little else happened in this drab game, those two nominal 'assists' were sufficient to secure Bruno maximum bonus points as well: that is not just.

Ollie Watkins was anorther 'surprise' rest rotation (or perhaps the change was motivated more by form, since the striker has become a stranger to the goal this season); it's nice to see the recently very impressive Donyell Malen getting a try-out as a lone striker, but it remains uncertain for now whether he will secure a regular start from Emery. Agony for poor Wolves to find the net first, through a fine Strand Larsen volley, but have it ruled out - though undoubtedly correctly, as Jhon Arias, in an offisde position, had run directly in front of Emi Martinez as the shot was coming in. The visitors were actually well on top throughout the first half, with Martinez having to make excellent saves from another Strand Larsen shot and a thunderous Mosquera header. The Norwegian striker fluffed the best chance of the game early in the second-half, when he somehow failed to make contact with a perfect set-up at the far post from Bellegarde - although Pau Torres's last-ditch block/tackle attempt appeared to get nothing of the ball and maybe something of the man, so merits consideration as another possible missed penalty award. And Wolves could again feel rightly aggrieved that Villa's goal was allowed to stand, as possession had initially been won with the aid of Morgan Rogers inadvertently stamping on Joao Gomes's toe - an infraction that was crystal clear on the TV replays, and should have been easy for VAR to spot (yet somehow they didn't). However, Wolves were maybe a little lucky not to see Arias sent off when he jumped with both feet on to Kamara's instep; it may have been accidental, a bunny-hop intended to lift him clear of contact, but he misjudged it so badly that he ended up stomping directly on his opponent's foot: another 50/50 type of call that we very often see go against the perpetrator.

Nottingham Forest are another team who are suffering a hangover from their midweek European football. They looked seriously out of gas here, allowing visitors Brighton to completely overrun them for much of the game; only some resolute defending stopped it becoming a cricket-score. The home side's only decent chance - a swift counter-attack initiated by Sels and ending in a sharp shot from the edge of the box by Igor Jesus -  brought an outstanding save, possibly the weekend's best, from Verbruggen with an outstretched leg.

West Ham v Liverpool wasn't much better than the dismal lunchtime game: a little bit more energy, a slightly higher quality of football, but still almost nothing in the way of goal threat. The final scoreline flattered Liverpool heavily, as West Ham had actually enjoyed the bulk of the possession, with the first of the visitors' goals coming kind of out of nowhere, and the second only in injury time, after the Hammers had been reduced to 10 men. Isak, again an unexpected starter over the more in-form Ekitike, again had a pretty subdued game, but did manage to put away a half-chance when it fell to him, snapping off a quick low shot from the edge of the box that didn't have a lot of power in it, but somehow managed to slip through a dfender's legs and just eluded Areola's dive at the foot of the near-post. The major excitement of the game, though, was Lucas Paqueta's almost comically self-destructive sending-off for prolonged haranguing of the referee about his booking. The ref, I thought, actually showed undue restraint in the length of time it took him to produce the second yellow; the confrontation had dragged on so long that several other players, including some on the opposing side, had intervened to try to lead him away from the catastrophe he was bringing on himself and his team. Both cards were for dissent; I can't remember the last time we saw that happen! And he could have earned another for the sarcastic applause he gave the ref as he very slowly left the pitch; I wonder if the FA might take further action on this, as a particularly unnecessary and hostile show of disrespect to the official. And oh dear me, BPS is up to its old tricks again, bizarrely determining that Cody Gakpo was somehow worthy of the maximum extra points, although he contributed almost nothing to the game, apart from the late and irrelevant second goal.

The major FPL news of the day, however, was the 'shock' omission of Mo Salah from the starting line-up (his owners should count themselves lucky that he didn't get on from the bench either, so at least they have the chance of some points from an FPL auto-sub). Astonishingly, over 3 million managers in FPL still own him; some were even bringing him back in this week - especially if using the Free Hit - because they fancied his chances against West Ham. It will be interesting to see how quick and dramatic the sell-off now is. (I suspect, not that bad: a lot of the people that still own him are probably 'zombie accounts' that gave up playing the game early in the season; the rest might be mostly hardcore idolaters who will stick by him forever, no matter what.)  Given how badly he took being benched by Klopp towards the end of the 23/24 season, I wonder if this betokens that his career at Liverpool is now over, and the Saudis are expected to come in for him again in the January transfer window?

Another big selection surprise in the Chelsea v Arsenal game, with Saliba being a last-minute omission having apparently picked up a knock in training. This predictably produced the best match of the day, with some expansive and often end-to-end football, although ultimately both defences were on top and neither side managed to carve out any major openings. Arteta might be concerned that the home side did not appear seriously incommoded by the early sending-off of Caicedo, and in fact continued to have a majority of possession and to get the ball into the final third. The red card, I feel, was a bit of a 50/50: the challenge was high and badly mistimed, but not reckless or malicious, certainly not 'out of control'; it was unfortunate that he happened to catch Merino above the ankle, the contact was made harder by the fact that the Arsenal player was kicking that foot towards him (he had in fact only cleared the ball away a fraction of a second earlier, which makes the mistiming of the challenge more forgivable). While the sending-off didn't seem obviously unfair, a three-match ban for this tackle does seem disproportionate - not all straight-red fouls are bad enough to merit that punishment.

The FPL 'Team of the Week' is usually one of the strongest indicators of the fluctuating 'luck factor': and once again - as in just about every week so far this season - it's looking like it might be quite a bizarre collection: a goal for defender Kenny Tete (and De Cuyper and Tzimas of Brighton on Sunday) and a brace for Newcastle's Malick Thiaw make them rather unexpected inclusions; and none of the 5 midfielders in the line-up after Saturday would have been in very many FPL teams (and Lewis Miley wouldn't even have been expected to start!), though at least Woltemade and Thiago up front were more expected successes. Also, we saw that ulimate 'Black Swan Event': a Dominic Calvert-Lewin goal (amazingly, about 95,000 people do own him!) - sorry, Dom, but you know...  There's an uncommonly low Global Average score again this week too, just 35 points; yet the weekly high score is a massive 123 points, and the average high score (probably a better gauge of the disparity between what is reasonably possible and what many/most people seem to be actually getting) I see in my leagues is in the low 70s. I think the spread of scores, as represented by this gap between the 'majority score' reflected by the global average and what the most successful players of the week are getting could be the most reliable indicator of luck from week to week. I'm going to try to look into this and compile some figures.

Things are probably going to be heavily distorted this week also by the large number of FPL managers punting their Free Hit chip; although things probably didn't go all that well for most of them, with so many unexpected results and unexpected goalscorers this weekend. And for a very large proportion, also, Haaland's rare blank, when they had their Triple Captain chip riding on him, was a major slice of bad luck. On the other hand, a fair number of people made an impulsive decision at the last moment to switch their TC to someone like Igor Thiago (or Malick Thiaw?!), and are now probably wallowing in their smugness. It is, indeed, a funny old game. 

But at least there hasn't been all that much terrible refereeing this time; well, apart from a penalty dubiously awarded to Brentford, and dubiously not awarded to Fulham, and Villa's goal against Wolves that really should have been disallowed; and a bit of over-generosity to the benefit of Manchester City and Josko Gvardiol! However, an unusually large number of goals - and correspondingly few clean sheets - and some very unexpected goalscorers (a lot of defenders again!), some major selection upsets (no Salah, no Cherki, no Garnacho, no Saliba, no Watkins, no Pope,...), and blanks or very low returns for almost all of the most fancied players (Mbeumo, Semenyo, Saka, Doku, Neto, Minteh,...), and improbably high returns for Foden and Gakpo (who weren't even 100% to start this week, and really had no reason to be expected to produce anything on their recent form), I think this week gets up to another 8 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.