Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 33

Few new big injury concerns this week, at least, but the recent hugely long interruption of the Premier League programme is still causing massive uncertainty about form and results. This really doesn't feel like a great week to be hazarding big chips in - but, with the season now so far advanced, we really don't have much choice. Almost everyone is gambling on their Bench Boost this week (or their Triple Captain, or, for a few with somewhat eccentric - um, probably 'bad' - squad selections, even their Free Hit).

These weekly 'summaries' have been getting a bit too involved - and excessively time-consuming for me! - so I've been aiming to keep them briefer recently. I made just about zero progress on that resolution for the first few weeks, but.... now I've hit upon a new 'format', which might help: a tabulation of the major types of 'lucky' incidents. 

I will try to resist any extended commentary (although I probably will still indulge in a few diatribes about any particularly egregious penalty or handball incidents).

Well, at least that was probably the best Sunday we've seen this season. And well up there with the best we've seen in several years....

Red cards awarded: 

Red cards not awarded: Gabriel clearly made a vigorous motion of his head towards Haaland in their second-half contretemps. Yes, a little bit of a 'handbags-at-dawn' incident, no, not really a 'headbutt', but.... it clearly strayed over that line you're not supposed to cross: he should have been sent off for it. (And really, he might well have picked up two yellows over the game anyway for the incessant ripping-the-shirt-off-his-back wrestling he was resorting to with his Viking nemesis.)

Curtis Jones's shove on Dewsbury-Hall looked like a penalty - but he just got away with it because it was a shoulder-to-shoulder kind of contact (though with undue force, and with no chance of reaching the ball...).

Penalties awarded: The late penalty award for Dominic Calvert-Lewin looked very, very soft.

Penalties not awarded: Cole Palmer was barged to the ground by Luke Shaw early on, but Michael Oliver and the VAR team were strangely unimpressed. Chelsea might have had another in the second-half when Casemiro's clumsy, over-extended follow-through caught Cucurella on the instep, just inside the penalty area - playing the ball is not an absolute defence, when you then kick an opponent so unnecessarily. (Chelsea, somehow, just cannot win any penalties??!!)

Gabriel clearly did move his arm deliberately towards a crossed ball early in the first-half at The Etihad - incontrovertible penalty: bizarre that it wasn't at least given a close look-over by VAR. Perhaps they'll say that his arm was 'next to his body'; yes, it was, but that's an argument that's only relevant when the ball is fired at you with little chance to respond; here, he did have a chance to respond - and he responded by leaning towards the ball, and deflecting it with his arm. (And it clearly would have gone in, but for this intervention, because it still hit the inside of the post.)

Tight/dubious offsides: Adam Armstrong produced a neat chipped finish to a breakaway against Leeds, but the SAOT showed him very narrowly offside as he ran through; probably a 'correct' decision, but a very rough one for Wolves. (And one that was hugely consequential for FPL, with so many people now having Darlow and/or one or two Leeds defenders for this Double Gameweek.)

Will Osula was very narrowly 'offside' for the Newcastle's equaliser; but VAR correctly spotted that the ball had been played to him by Evanilson's tackle, rather than a through-ball from Guimaraes.

A great opening goal from Ndiaye against Liverpool was ruled out for a very close offside call against his assister, Jake O'Brien - another one of those where the SAOT picture was still very close, but didn't accord at all to the naked-eye impression that he'd been nowhere near off.

Goals wrongly allowed/disallowed: Haaland did have hold of a big handful of Gabriel's shirt as he scored the winner. It was only briefly, probably not consequential, and the Arsenal defender had been holding his shirt just before that (and for a large percentage of the game), so.... it really wouldn't have seemed fair for the goal to be disallowed for that. But technically it is against the rules, we've seen a lot of goals chalked off for this kind of offence,... and surely VAR should at least have had a look, and told us why it was 'OK'.

Surprise omissions/early substitutions/injuries: Alex Iwobi was withdrawn at half-time. after after apparently developing a hamstring problem. Diego Gomez had to come off in the 20th minute after jarring his knee; at least this allowed Kaoru Mitoma - a rather surprising omission from the start - to get a decent outing. Bissouma, Kolo Muani, and Betancur were all withdrawn by De Zerbi well short of the hour. Jose Sa had a back-muscle problem, so back-up Dan Bentley was a surprise starter in goal for Wolves. Anthony Gordon was a surprise absentee for Newcastle, supposedly the victim of a late training injury. Lewis Hall, who had been struggling in the game, was withdrawn at half-time. Joao Pedro was a surprise late omission for Chelsea, complaining of a sore thigh-muscle (a sorry blow for the slightly over 50% of FPL managers who own him in this gameweek; although Chelsea have been so ineffectual lately, you wonder if he would have contributed any decent points anyway, even across two fixtures). Estevao, after a lively start, had to come off after just 15 minutes, after feeling a problem in his hamstring.

Arteta dropped Gyokeres for Havertz and White for Mosquera - but it didn't do him much good.

Slot dropped Kerkez, Frimpong, and Macallister for the derby game at Everton.

Near misses:  Igor Thiago, despite being held down by Fulham defender, managed to bang a header against the outside of the post. 

Much fancied Danny Welbeck (my best mate is - bizarrely - chancing the Triple Captaincy on him!) appeared to have hit the ball against the post from only a yard out; even more strangely, the linesman then flagged for an offside - even though no Brighton player had been within two yards of being offside at any point in the move! An insanely terrible decision!! Of course, it wouldn't have mattered if a goal had been scored, as VAR should have been easily able to overrule the insanity; but it presumably would have stopped Welbeck from being penalised for a miss under the BPS...  All these small officiating cock-ups can have some FPL consequence.... (To be fair to Danny, it was actually a last-ditch clearance from Van de Ven that cannoned off the post in that incident. So, he will presumably have been denied BPS and 'defcon' credit for that, because of the errant offside flag.) Later, Welbeck stole in behind from a Pascal Gross freekick, but headed tamely straight at the keeper. Just before half-time, Xavi Simons passed the ball against the inside of the far post; if that had gone in, to put the home side 2-0 up, Spurs might have hung on for the win they so desperately needed.

A neat first-half curler from Estevao shaved the outside of the post. Enzo Fernandez also fizzed an effort narrowly wide. Late on, Moises Caicedo mashed a 25-yard drive only an inch or so wide!

Ebere Eze's crisp left-foot shot from 20 yards slamming against the inside of the foot of the post and fizzing across the goal-line will no doubt haunt Arsenal fans for years. It was a fantastic effort; and, if it had gone in, to give the visitors a 2-1 lead,.... probably they would have gone on to win the match and the league title. Not many people are betting on them to pull that off now. Haaland slapped one against the top of the near-post before Eze's scare. And then there was that Arsenal break where Havertz was in alone on Donnarumma but couldn't get past him. We also saw a Gabriel header deflect off Nico O'Reilly's back against the post... And then, late on, Havertz headed just over the bar from a lovely Trossard cross (although I think Donnarumma had it covered). Such a ding-dong of a game! (And, credit where it's due, I had been afraid that the Gunners would just dig in for a draw; but they did go after this game. They were still looking well out-of-sorts in 'competitive edge', though; it seemed that every time City got tackled or misplaced a pass, they were able to win the ball back within seconds....)

Onana had a header hit the middle of the crossbar against Sunderland.

Big misses/big saves: Mikkel Damsgaard stole in behind unmarked against Fulham, but couldn't find the target with his hooked volley. Bernd Leno made a great reaction save from a Dango Ouattara snap-shot in the final minute.

Emi Martinez presumably got credit for his 'big save' in the one-on-one with Diarra - but the Sunderland man had looked miles offside when he began the break, and a flag was never raised?

Dean Henderson had a few uncharacterstically flappy moments on Monday night; but he did pull off one excellent reaction save from a Mavropanos header. And early on, Brennan Johnson had headed over the top when he had the whole goal to aim at.

Outstanding goals: Kaoru Mitoma's exquisite left-foot volley at the far post may well come to be seen as the goal that sent Spurs down (OK, Georginho Rutter's stunning strike in the dying seconds was actually decisive of the result here; but it felt like pyschologically Spurs were always on the back-foot, having conceded the lead to such an astonishing goal just before half-time). Xavi Simons's curler from the edge of the box was pretty special too - but perhaps Spurs's celebrations of that goal were excessive, premature, as they still couldn't hang on for the win. And James Justin's bicycle-kick against Wolves was probably the most improbable goal/goalscorer of this - or any - week! But perhaps Rayan Cherki's impetuous dribble through the Arsenal defence will be remembered as the most significant goal of the season, because it was the one that unseated Arsenal's title dreams.

Outstanding performances: 

Big mistakes: There will be few huger mistakes all season than Donnarumma's gifting Arsenal an equaliser within seconds of Cherki having secured the crucial advantage in the potentially 'title-deciding' match. His first touch was heavy, and even then he didn't appreciate how closely Havertz was pressing him and was slow to get rid of the ball,.... and even then, he was a bit unlucky that his attempted clearance pinged off the German's lunging toe and went just inside the far post. One might really lay the blame here on a bad back-pass from Matheus Nunes, or on Pep for insisting on this playing out from the back even with a keeper who's not very good at it. As it turned out, this blunder was ultimately not all that consequential (apart from all those lost 'clean sheet' points in FPL!!), since Arsenal never really looked in this game even when they had so fortuitously drawn level again.

Bad luck/good luck: 

FPL weirdness: Bruno Fernandes, for once, missed out on bonus points - in fact, didn't come anywhere near getting any - despite providing the assist for the only goal of the game. Something going wrong around here....

Unexpected results: Brentford were well on top against Fulham, but just couldn't put any of their chances away. A much-improved Spurs may feel a little hard done-by that they didn't manage to take all 3 points off Brighton. Chelsea largely dominated against Manchester United, but couldn't take any points from the game. And, yeah, nobody expected Villa v Sunderland to be a 4-3 (and, frankly, Villa didn't really deserve to win it). Liverpool weren't really the better side in the Merseyside derby, but somehow nicked the win. Great hattrick from Morgan Gibbs-White, but... that result flattered Forest.

The FPL 'Team of the Week', which, this season, has rarely included many of the most popular FPL picks,... after Saturday had absolutely none. And it didn't get much better on Sunday (Cherki, Salah, Gibbs-White, Watkins??).

The global average rose from a pitiful 15 points on Saturday (allegedly; that barely seems credible) to a still fairly dismal 39 points by Monday, after the 10 games of the basic gameweek (and that's with a lot of Bench Boosts in play: over 835,000, according to LiveFPL). Not too many outrageously bad decisions so far - well, except that Chelsea should probably have had at least 1, possibly 2 penalties; City too, and maybe Everton. And there have been a fair few line-up surprises, desperately near misses, and slightly surprising results; so, this one is probably looking set to be at least a 5 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'. (And there's still a long way to go, with three extra matches in the Gameweek.)

Dilemmas of the Week - GW 33 (25/26)

A couple of major injuries this week (unfortunate for the players and their clubs, anyway, though probably not hugely consequential for FPL), but overall we seem to have been spared too much further disruption on that front. So,... it could be quite a brief review of the availability picture this week.

Of course, with GW33 being the biggest Double Gameweek of the season, many people are targeting their Bench Boost for this week (or some, alternatively, their Triple Captain, or even their Free Hit), while a large number deployed their 2nd Wildcard last week to 'set up' optimally for this set of fixtures. So, there's a lot at stake this week (not just for City and Arsenal!), and we're likely to see the global average significantly inflated by the number of chips in play, as well as by the exra fixtures.

I am trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

I've recently discovered this additional resource, the weekly Predicted Lineups from Fantasy Football Edits. My longtime standby for this sort of news, Fantasy Footall Scout, does usually provide some explanatory commentary on its predictions, even including reminders of the key injury concerns, and sometimes also some discussion of possible alternate selections; so, if you like a bit more detail with your 'probable lineups' for the week, that could still be the preferable roundup to look at. But because FPL Edits is so stripped-down, it's rather more straightforwardly accessible, easier to scan through quickly; and I think it's also perhaps a tad more reliable with its expected formations and lineups, and a little quicker to update.

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 33?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Riccardo Calafiori was a late omission against Bournemouth last week, after developing an unspecified problem during training; he seems likely to remain out. Noni Madueke had to come off against Sporting in midweek with a knee problem, though Arteta is bullish about his prospects of being OK again for this weekend. Arsenal are stretched a bit thin for their possible 'title decider' against City on Sunday, though, with Bukayo Saka now revealed to be suffering with an Achilles issue which will keep him out some time further, and Odegaard and Timber apparently still unavailable too.

Mikkel Damsgaard came off at half-time against Everton last week, struggling with an illness; but he is thought to be over that now, so should hopefully be able to start and last most of the game. Brentford are still going well, but injuries have left their squad stretched a bit thin.

Hugo Ekitike ruptured his right Achilles in the game against PSG on Wednesday, and will miss the rest of the season, and the World Cup. With Alexander Isak only just back after a long absence, Cody Gakpo seems likely to lead the line for a while.

Bad news for Palace too, with both Adam Wharton (groin strain) and Maxence Lacroix (knee), arguably their two best players of the season, having to come off in Thursday night's game against Fiorentina. Newly-returned Jean-Philippe Mateta was withdrawn at half-time in that tie for 'minutes management'.

Good news, perhaps, for the recently outstanding Nico O'Reilly (still 13% owned in FPL, although some tens of thousands of managers have baled on him this week), who limped off in the Chelsea game last Sunday holding the back of his thigh. In Friday's press conference, Pep insisted that he was going to be fine for this weekend; but Pep, as we know, is not above fibbing occasionally....

Kobbie Mainoo missed Monday night's game against Leeds with a training knock (and Ugarte was a disaster in his stead, largely responsible for the defeat), but might be OK again for Saturday's. Leny Yoro has apparently developed an unspecified injury problem this week. Disturbing news for United, as Maguire and Martinez are both banned, and De Ligt is apparently still unavailable; they'll probably have to fall back on youngster Ayden Heaven and Luke Shaw or Mazraoui in a makeshift centre-back pairing.

Forest have been hit by multiple problems following their Europa League quarter-final against Porto, as both Murillo and Chris Wood had to come off after suffering bad knocks, and Callum Hudson-Odoi developed a leg-muscle problem. Wood was very lucky to escape serious injury, as his lower right leg visibly bent under a high challenge from Jan Bednarek; but Vitor Pereira is optimistic that he and Murillo might available this weekend. Elliot Anderson missed the Porto game after the death of his mother, and his involvement this weekend is in doubt.

Cristian Romero has a partial MCL tear in his right knee after colliding with his goalkeeper Kinsky last week; this will inevitably keep him out for the rest of the season - though there is a slim chance that he might still be able to get fit again for the World Cup.

Wolves's Matt Doherty has apparently been struggling with a 'niggle', but was back in training by the end of the week.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Lisandro Martinez has got himself a three-match 'violent conduct' ban for impetuously tugging on Dominic Calvert-Lewin's ponytail on Monday night, while Harry Maguire has been handed an additional one-match ban for 'improper conduct' in last month's Bournemouth game (sounding off at the fourth official after his sending-off). Joelinton is beginning a two-match ban for picking up his 10th booking of the season last week. Lewis Dunk will serve the second part of his two-match ban against Spurs, but can return for his team's second fixture of the week, against Chelsea on Tuesday; Wolves's Yerson Mosquera is also serving the second game of a two-match ban.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Newcastle have been pretty ropey of late, and now Eddie Howe has threatened to drop any players who do not seem committed to staying at the club - which, according to reports, could be about half of the squad. Avoid.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Chelsea overall are still severely unconvincing, but Cole Palmer, at least, looks back to something like his best. Marc Cucurella also had an outstanding game against City, and might have scored a hattrick! Alex Jimenez was superb in Bournemouth's title-upset win over Arsenal - but, thanks to the cruel caprices of FPL, somehow didn't earn any extra points for a 'Man of the Match' display.

I think it's likely to be unprofitable to bring in additional doubling players from clubs as weak as Brighton and Leeds, let alone Burnley!! And Bournemouth, let's not forget, prior to last week's cat-among-the-pigeons victory over leaders Arsenal, hadn't managed to win a game in two months. And Chelsea have been fairly awful over the past month or so. Everyone probably already has 3 players from City,... and maybe half a dozen or so from the other 5 doubling teams; that's plenty - there is no need to be stacking the squad with 10, 12, 15 doublers on a set of fixtures like this.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

A-spurning we will go!

 

I had thought that the England squad in the run-up to this summer's World Cup couldn't hold many - any?! - surprises. Thomas Tuchel and I seemed to be on pretty much exactly the same page in relation to the general approach and the particular selections. Heck, it had started to seem that, for once, maybe the whole country was on pretty much the same page: it looked as though the squad was essentially going to pick itself.

But where would be the fun in being the manager of England if you couldn't mess with people's heads just a little bit, stir up a bit of a kerfuffle among the punditry with a few.... surprising (baffling, irritating) choices of player??  And he's certainly done that with the current squad for the two warm-up friendlies against Uruguay and Japan over the next few days - effectively a 'long list' of 35 players, which will be whittled down into the 26 to go forward to the USA this summer. A few big names have been mercilessly spurned; while a few others have been given a slightly unexpected lifeline.

Nothing really too earth-shattering, but deserving of some brief comment, nevertheless.

And this is somewhat of a specialist topic of mine. Spurning, that is. Last month, atter being turned out of my current home with barely two-and-a-half weeks' notice by a bonkers landlady, I was left desperately scrabbling to find a new roof over my head in a matter of days. And the first four places I set my heart on... all spurned me. The nicest of them, in fact, initially accepted me; only 24 hours later was I sheepishly informed that the husband of the lady I'd spoken with had supposedly let the place to someone else behind her back on the same morning I'd gone for my viewing... With employment, it's become even worse: I have been turned down for every single job I've applied for in the last five years - must be several dozens of them now. At the end of last year, I somehow managed to get turned down for a trio of jobs in Myanmar; and, you know, it can't be easy to find folks who are willing to work in Myanmar at the moment, let alone who are able to relocate there at a moment's notice from a neighbouring country. (In fact, it's even worse than that: four quickfire spurnings for Myanmar jobs!! One of those employers actually invited me to reapply, and then blew me off again...)  And, my oh my, I've lost count of the number of women over the years who've told me something like, "Oh, I wish you'd asked me out sooner - but I've just started seeing someone else."

So,.... the spurned and I have... an affinity.

Here, then, a quick review of Herr Tuchel's latest spurnings (and non-spurnings)....

Goalkeepers

Unexpected inclusions: Aaron Ramsdale, Jason Steele

Obviously the three for the actual World Cup squad does 'pick itself' in this position: Jordan Pickford is an unassailable first choice, Dean Henderson is by some margin the 'best of the rest', and Jamie Trafford is the promising young pretender. I have no gripe with these additional two per se. In fact, I'm really pleased to see Steele getting some recognition at last (there is talk that he's being lined up to go to America as a member of the coaching staff or practice partner on the goalkeeping team, rather than a member of the playing squad); he's a player I've long admired; but, you know, he hasn't really been a regular first team starter in a dozen years or so! And Ramsdale, for me, is a nearly-not-quite kind of player: many excellent qualities, but somehow seems to lack the 'star power' to make that final step up in rank; and, given that he has only very recently - and perhaps temporarily - displaced Nick Pope as the starter at Newcastle, he's not bringing a lot of top-flight experience with him. I would have preferred to give a vote of confidence to Pope, or to give a first taste of senior squad involvement to one of the young up-and-comers like Matthew Young or James Beadle.

Unexpected spurnings:  Nich Pope

He has had a number of injury problems over the past few years. And he had made a few bad mistakes in recent games. But I suspect there's some other issue going on behind the scenes at St James's, some deeper injury issue or perhaps some kind of personal problem, because his performance level really didn't seem problematic enough to warrant dropping him - on the eve of a penultimate World Cup training camp. And Tuchel has included plenty of other players who are not current starters; so, that can't be the only reason poor Pepe didn't make the cut here. On ability and past experience, I feel Pepe deserved to remain a part of our squad - if only as a fringe selection who's never likely to get near a start (nor, with the rise of Trafford, even to make the final squad, in all probability); I fear there must be some other factor behind his exclusion.

Defenders

Unexpected inclusions: Harry Maguire, John Stones, Fikayo Tomori, Jarrell Quansah,... and Ben White!

I wouldn't dispute Maguire's inclusion on simple merit: he has been a giant of the England team for several years now; and he finally seems to be rediscovering something like his best form with Carrick's suddenly rejuvenated Manchester United. However,... I feel his time with England is past. Guehi and Konsa are now clearly, rightly, our default starting pair in central defence. And, after so many years of being the 'main man', I can't see Harry adapting to a peripheral 'cheerleader' role in the dressing room, in the manner of the extraordinarily selfless Conor Coady. Maybe it can be useful to have him involved at this training and preparation stage; and maybe it's a smart idea to keep him sweet, to keep him onboard, just in case we might need him as a starter in America because of injuries elsewhere. But I really can't see taking Maguire to the World Cup.... 

Similar qualms might apply to John Stones. But I'd be happier taking him along in the summer, because of his versatility as an all-around 'utility player', able to fill in at full-back or even as a holding midfield player, if we get hit by some awkward injuries. Moreover, I don't think he's such a 'big personality' in the dressing-room as Maguire, and after being on the sidelines so much at City in recent years, he's more likely to be able to accept a peripheral role in the squad with quiet good grace, and even perhaps with gratitude. It's just a pity that he's had so few first-team minutes this season.

It's nice to see Quansah and Tomori getting a look-in; proof that going to play on the continent, although it might remove you from the consciousness of the English sporting press and the public, need not exclude you from the England manager's thoughts (although Tomori hasn't got much of a look-in since he moved to Milan five years ago...). Quansah, in particular; I've always felt that he showed a lot of promise; and I think Slot's abrupt rejection of him may prove to have been one of his biggest blunders (along with spurning Harvey Elltiott, and pissing Mo Salah off; and buying Isak straight after buying Ekitike; and buying Frimpong and Kerkez when there was no obvious place for them in the squad or the style of play; and...); it's been great to see him blossoming since his move to Leverkusen this year. However, you suspect they might only be getting this chance because of the recent injuries to Reece James and Trevoh Chalobah; and probably neither will actually go to the World Cup. [And poor Quansah has apprently been denied his chance now, owing to a thigh-strain.]

I'm glad to see Ben White involved again at last - even if it is only after a long list of injury withdrwals. After such a long, self-imposed exile, it may be impossible for him to fully integrate himself again and regain the trust of teammates and fans. But, frankly. if Reece James isn't fit, he'd be starting for me! Diminiutive, injury-prone Livramento doesn't yet quite have the experience for the biggest stage, I don't think; Djed Spence neither; and we're short of other options in that position.

Justified spurning: Trent Alexander-Arnold

I went into some detail around 18 months ago why I felt Trent was not enough of an all-round player to fit in most teams, including the England one. Unfortunately, my view still hasn't changed. And a difficult first season at Real Madrid hasn't been the best platform to recommend himself to Tuchel. This is the decision which is going to most inflame the punditry, no doubt; but I think our manager is spot on. Not all great players have a place in the national team; they need to be a good tactical fit with the rest of the talents around them - and I don't think Trent can be that.

Unfortunate spurnings: Jarrad Branthwaite, Myles Lewis-Skelly

Branthwaite, I suppose, just hasn't had many minutes so far this season. But unless he's actually got a current injury problem, I would have included him here. He is the most promising young left-sided centre-back in the country (the best, really; since Guehi isn't naturally left-sided, has just fashioned himself a quirky niche role playing in that position off his wrong foot), and so needs to be developed as a potential starter, regular first-back up in that position. Lewis-Skelly just hasn't been given any minutes by Arteta this season; but he made such a promising start to his England career last year, I think there should be a case for keeping him involved as much as possible - even if he's doubtful for inclusion in the final squad.

Midfielders

Unexpected inclusions: Jordan Henderson, Phil Foden, Anthony Gordon

Henderson, I suppose, is still useful to have around as an elder statesman, involved for his experience and leadership presence, in this expanded, 'training camp' squad; but it would be a bit of a travesty if he went to the World Cup as well, when he clearly seems to be incapable of playing regular top-level football in closely back-to-back games any more.

I suppose I'm glad enough to see some loyalty being shown to Foden and Gordon, despite their thus-far very underwhelming seasons. However, I do worry that there is some serious underlying problem with Foden that causes Pep to keep dropping him; and, if there isn't, I fear this lack of confidence from his manager may have broken him. He has consistently failed to make an impact on the international stage for some years; and I can't see him deserving another chance now, in a World Cup, when he's obviously not likely to get near a start ahead of Palmer and Bellingham and Eze. Although I like Gordon's pace and attitude, he's had such a lacklustre season so far that he probably ought to lose out to Madueke, and even perhaps his clubmate Harvey Barnes, in the final squad - unless he finishes really hot over the remaining seven games.

Unfortunate spurnings:  Alex Scott, Rico Lewis, Lewis Miley

I'm glad, at least, to see Adam Wharton get another call-up - although I rather fear that he'll be cut from the final 26-man squad. However, I think Alex Scott has been playing more than well enough for Bournemouth to merit inclusion again as well (he acquitted himself well enough in November's squad). Miley and Lewis, I suppose, haven't been getting enough first-team football with their clubs this year; but they are such outstanding talents that I would have liked to see them included in an expanded squad like this, to encourage their development for the future. If they can find a manager who will play them regularly, they should be in contention for the 2028 Euros, both terrific young players.

Culpable omission:  Morgan Gibbs-White

OK, this is the one selection in this super-sized squad that really gets my blood boiling. There is a strong case that Gibbs-White should be the first back-up to Palmer in the No. 10 role for us - ahead of Morgan Rogers or Phil Foden. He certainly deserves to be given the chance to make that case in this squad.

Forwards

Unexpected inclusions: Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Dominic Solanke, Marcus Rashford

Solanke I can see: I like his pace, workrate, and versatility. Even though he's only just back from a long injury, and is having a torrid time with Championship-bound Spurs,... I think he is a profile of player we probably need in the squad. And I suppose it's again nice to show some loyalty to Marcus Rashford, after good service to England over a number of years. But, after a promising start at Barca, things seem to have slowed down for him rather; and he really hasn't been scoring many goals for them. And for me, I'm afraid, he's always going to fall uncomfortably between two stools: he has many of the elements of a great winger and of a great centre-forward... without actually being either one. Calvert-Lewin I just don't get; yes, he's probably having his best season ever - but it's still not quite good enough: he's inconsitent, injury-prone, and just not 'international class'.

Unfortunate spurnings: Ollie Watkins, Danny Welbeck

These two very nearly earned the 'culpable' tag as well! I think the omission of these two - in favour of the far less impressive Dominics - could prove costly to our World Cup campaign. Watkins has had a very subdued season; but I think that's been mainly down to Villa's patchy form and lack of regular service to him. He's still been working hard for the team, and looking sharp on the rare occasions when  a decent chance has presented itself. He's a better complement to Harry Kane as a back-up option than any of the other contenders, I think; and he has a very promising rapport with Morgan Rogers, which could make the pair of them a dangerous substitution option in games where we're struggling to find a breakthrough. Welbeck has had a terrible injury record through the years, and, yes, he's getting a bit long in the tooth for international football now; but he's always been an outstanding striker, and he is having one of the best seasons of his career - he certainly deserved a chance here, over the perennially flakey Calvert-Lewin... or, probably, Rashford too.

So, not a terrible squad, by any means: very solid, and overall much as expected. But there are just a few rather dodgy choices - decisions that fill me with a slight unease about what might happen when it comes to naming the final World Cup squad.

Dilemmas of the Week - GW 29 (25/26)

Not too many new injury doubts emerging at the weekend - but the ones we have seen all happen to be to very highly-owned players, so many FPL managers are facing a little bit of a crisis for this vexed Midweek Gameweek.

And with many of the managerial press conferences not happening until Tuesday, we won't have a clear picture of availability and likely line-ups until fairly shortly before the deadline. And, with evening kick-offs, late-breaking news on likely starting elevens - and the FPL deadline itself - will only happen after half the world has gone to bed.

I am trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 29?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Declan Rice came off with a knock 15 minutes before the end against Chelsea on Sunday. Martin Odegaard was also missing (again) for that game, with a knee problem.

Bournemouth striker Evanilson suffered a dead leg against Sunderland on Saturday and has been struggling since.

Vitaly Janelt was a late omission against Burnley, and apparently has a metatarsal injury which will now keep him out for a while. Reiss Nelson, supposedly back from his long injury woes, also missed that match with a calf-strain, and remains doubtful.

Winger Marcus Edwards had to miss Burnley's last match after a training knock.

Joachim Andersen was an unexpected absentee for Fulham at the weekend because of illness; it's not clear if he's yet recovered.

Harry Wilson limped off 20 minutes before the end against Spurs after suffering a knock to his ankle, but Marco Silva seems hopeful he might be OK again for the West Ham game on Wednesday night. 

Joe Rodon, only recently back from injury, felt tightness in his hamstring against City at the week, but scans seem to be all clear, so Daniel Farke is hopeful he will be able to play this midweek.James Justin is also a doubt, after suffering a gashed leg in the weekend game.

The BIGGIE of this gameweek (of the season...) is that Erling Haaland missed the weekend's game against Leeds because of a late training knock, and Pep was initially hesitant to say when he might be back; but now, apparently, things are looking much more promising on that. Still, a yellow-flag is a yellow-flag....

Luke Shaw and Harry Maguire came off early on Sunday against Palace, suffering with a bug. (Just about nobody owns either of them at the moment; but it is worrying that other Manchester United players might suddenly drop out, if there's something going around.)

Jacob Ramsey was also pulled off at half-time against Everton because he was suffering with an illness. He is now reportedly over that problem, though it's not clear how much of training he's been able to attend since the weekend. Nick Woltemade has now been laid low (with the same bug?); and there may be concerns about something running through the Newcastle camp.

Stefan Ortega was another late omission at the weekend, having picked up a calf problem in the European game against Fenerbahce a few days before; not too serious, but he's likely to miss the game against City as well.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Maxence Lacroix has to serve a one-match ban for a 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity' offence at the weekend. Pedro Neto also has to miss a game after earning two yellow cards against Arsenal.

Cristian Romero and Freddie Potts are serving the last games of their long bans this gameweek.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

I haven't had any Newcastle or Palace players for a while, but I am worried that they are now joining Spurs in pariah territory.

And although Liverpool were ultimately able to come away with a high-scoring win against West Ham last Saturday, they were absolutely bloody awful (especially in the first-half, especially in defence) and scarcely deserved even a point from the game.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Jordan Pickford!!! (I have tended to feel all season that he's a bit too expensive, and that Everton's form isn't quite solid enough to justify him being an FPL goalkeeper pick, but.... he is the best keeper in the league. And he should have got 20 extra points for that save!)

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

Dilemmas of the Week - GW 28 (25/26)

 

Not too many major new injuries this week, it seems, but.... a fair few minor 'niggles' and uncertainties.

And of course, press conferences on Friday morning (in the UK) won't get widely reported (or at least not written up on the main FPL reference sites like Fantasy Football Scout) until mid- or late afternoon,... which is the middle of the night for folks like me, in East Asia. And dammit, Wolves v Villa is a Friday evening kick-off, so people in my timezone will be struggling to get fully up-to-date... before the extremely inconvenient FPL deadline. If I catch any late-breaking news this evening, I'll endeavour to update here (but, to be honest, I'm more likely to be down the pub!).

I am trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 28?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Bukayo Saka is one of the biggest worries this week, having come off early with a 'knock' in the trouncing of Spurs last week. At least his absence would make room for the impressive Madueke to get more gametime. (And Kai Havertz and Max Dowman are thought to be nearly ready to rejoin the action too. They might also get a look-in on the right side of the forward trio.) Ben White missed last weekend's game owing to an unspecified niggling injury - but he seems to have fallen out of favour as a starter anyway.

Bournemouth's midfield stalwart Lewis Cook felt a problem in his hamstring in trainiing the day before last weekend's game; Iraola hopes it isn't too serious, but it's likely to keep him out this week as well.

Brentford appear to have lost two of their full-back options in quick succession: Michael Kayode missed last week's game with a late training injury, and Aaron HIckey had to come off with a knock in the first-half against Brighton. This might mean that Keane Lewis-Potter, lately more dangerous as an attacker, might have to go back to being a wing-back/full-back.

Carlos Alcaraz was unavailable to face Manchester United on Monday because of a training injury.

Fulham's young Brazilian winger Kevin had to come off with a knock in last week's game against Sunderland, and might be missing for a little while. Antonee Robinson was also a surprise absentee in that game, having apparently suffered an ankle injury late in the previous week's training.

The biggest uncertainty of the week is Florian Wirtz, who's really come into form over the past couple of months or so, and is now owned by 8.5% of managers. He missed last Sunday's game against Forest after straining his back in the warm-up, and remains a doubt; nearly 130,000 have already offloaded him this week.

Lisandro Martinez missed the Monday night trip to Everton with a calf issue, and is expected to be out for at least a couple of weeks. Bryan Mbeumo limped off near the end in that match, but it appears to have been just some cramp, and he's apparently been training again this week.

Jacob Ramsey dropped out of the squad to play Qarabag on Tuesday with a tight hamstring, but apparently scans have revealed nothing seriously amiss, so he might be available again for this weekend.

Sunderland are really in the wars: Nordi Mukiele limped off after just 10 minutes against Fulham last week with a calf-strain, and forwards Romaine Mundle (hamstring) and Brian Brobbey (groin strain) had to withdraw before the end. The little used Dennis Cirkin had also been unavailable because of an injury just before that match.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Wesley Fofana is serving a one-match ban for a second yellow card last week (and is lucky it wasn't more, as his clumsy lunge on James Ward-Prowse was worthy of a straight red).

Ladislav Krejci is also facing a one-match ban for picking up two yellow cards last week (he's rather unlucky, since he appeared to be just clearing the ball upfield because he hadn't heard the referee's whistle, when he earned his second). 

Cristian Romero is now serving the third instalment of a four-game ban (he's had an extra game added on automatically, because his clogging of Casemiro a couple of weeks back was his second red card of the season).

And West Ham's Freddie Potts is serving the second part of a three-game ban.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Pep's midfield rotations are getting more and more worrying: last week, Cherki, Foden, and Reijnders were all left on the bench. It makes you wonder how 'safe' any City picks are. Even Semenyo, I fear, might find himself in a three-way rotation with Cherki and Doku, once the latter is fully fit again.

And I'm afraid all Spurs players are avoid-like-the-plague options at the moment, as any 'new manager bounce' with Igor Tudor seems unliekly to be able to slow their death-spiral into the relegation zone.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Bournemouth's 19-year-old Brazilian winger, Rayan, is in sensational form at the moment; but, given his tender years, I doubt if he'll continue to start every week, now that Marcus Tavernier appears to be fit again.

Although he hasn't come up with a return in the last two games, Dango Ouattara is relishing finally getting a regular start at Brentford, and has come into some useful form in the past month or so (although I'd still probably incline towards Kevin Schade, if taking a second attacking asset from Brentford).

Benjamin Sesko and Martin Gyokeres finally seem to have found their scoring boots - although neither can be relied upon as an invariable starter (Gyokeres, perhaps, is very nearly so; although he might face some competition once Havertz is fully fit again; but, unfortunately, Arsenal are notoriously creating very few open-play chances this year, so even their most promising attacking players aren't as attractive for FPL as all that - if people are still sceptical of Saka, Gyokeres shouldn't be getting anywhere near consideration).

And young Nico O'Reilly, of course, produced the performance of the week last time with a fine brace of goals against Newcastle, and now bears the curse of being the gameweek's most transferred-in player (well, nearly - he is, somehow, being narrowly beaten by Virgil Van Dijk at the moment; they're both closing in on half a million new owners). But, as I just noted above, you really can't trust Pep to field any of his midfielders every week, no matter how well they play.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 27

 

A few unpleasant selection surprises again this week; although, at least, not too many new injury disasters to add to our FPL troubles.

These weekly 'summaries' have been getting a bit too involved - and excessively time-consuming for me! - so I've been aiming to keep them briefer recently. I made just about zero progress on that resolution for the first few weeks, but.... now I've hit upon a new 'format', which might help: a tabulation of the major types of 'lucky' incidents. 

I will try to resist any extended commentary (although I probably will still indulge in a few diatribes about any particularly egregious penalty or handball incidents).

Red cards awarded: Ladislav Krejci's second yellow card was a bit unjust: he clearly thought - rightly - that the ball was still in play, and was trying to clear it upfield (as Strand Larsen closed him down to try and block), and perhaps had not heard (or couldn't believe) that the referee had just blown his whistle because the linesman had wrongly flagged for a throw-in.

Red cards not awarded: Ruben Dias was perhaps slightly lucky to get only a yellow card for hauling back Anthony Gordon's first-half breakaway. Yes, it was way out on the left touchline, but Gordon's got a lot of pace, and there was no-one else between him and the goal.

Fofana's second yellow card might well have been a straight red: his wild lunge caught Ward-Prowse on the instep rather than the shin, but it was violent and out-of-control and could have done some serious damage. Chelsea were very lucky not to get a second defender sent off when Tosin appeared to run across the back of Flemming - briefly grabbing his arm, pushing him in the back, and probably tripping him too (all three contacts might have been too slight on their own to justify punishment, but the combination demonstrated a determined intent to bring the attacker to a halt) - knocking him over when he was clean through on goal.

Penalties awarded: 

Penalties not awarded: Palmer was unfortunate not to get a penalty when flattened from behind by Joe Worrall. The Burnley defender had got a toe to the ball to clear it first, but he was sliding in from a long way back, out of control, and his follow-through into Palmer's Achilles was dangerous, regardless of whether he'd made contact with the ball.

Tight/dubious offsides: Dan Burn had a goal ruled out for a narrow offside: that looked correct, but it was still a bit harsh as he'd been shoved into that position by Ruben Dias.

Goals wrongly allowed/disallowed:  Randal Kolo Muani's second equaliser for Spurs might have dramatically altered the complexion of the north London derby; and Gabriel's extravagant dive when he felt the slightest touch of the forward's hand on his back was one of the most egregious pieces of 'conning the referee' we've seen in quite a while. This is the kind of incident where VAR is invariably too timid to intervene; but, in the interests of justice, they really ought to.

Macallister's last-gasp winner surely should have been disallowed. Both he and, even more so, Van Dijk (who got in the first header) looked well offside as Szoboszlai curled in his cross; but the SAOT graphic eventually indicated that one of them (not clear which) was supposedly being kept on by the edge of a defender's boot. I simply do not believe that: there is something gravely amiss with this technology - Van Dijk looked 'off' by about a yard.

Surprise omissions/early substitutions/injuries: Foden, Cherki, and Reijnders (all still modestly high-owned in FPL) were all omitted by Pep against Newcastle; Cherki at least came on for half an hour or so, but Foden only got a token few minutes at the end, and Reijnders wasn't used at all.

Brentford's Michael Kayode was a late omission, due to a training knock. And Fabian Hurzeler rested/dropped Baleba and Veltman.

Michael Kayode was a surprise omission, having apparently picked up an injury in training late in the week. Mikkel Damsgaard was surprisingly rested against Brighton, only came on for the last 25 minutes.

Antonee Robinson was missing for Fulham, having complained of an ankle problem in training during the week. Nordi Mukiele limped off after barely 10 minutes, apparently with a calf-strain.

Timber was replaced by Mosquera at Spurs after just 55 minutes.

Lisandro Martinez, troubled with a calf problem, was a late dropout for Manchester United on Monday evening. David Moyes surprisingly preferred Branthwaite to Mykolenko at left-back for that game. And Amad Diallo was subbed off for Sesko a few minutes shy of the hour.

Near misses:  Emi Buendia smashed a post with a curler from the edge of the box.

Ferdi Kadioglu's 25-yard effort crashed against the crossbar - but set up the opener for Diego Gomez with a kind rebound.

Bournemouth's new prodigy, 19-year-old Brazilian winger Rayan, crashed a 20-yard effort against the outside of the post - narrowly missing out on becoming the youngest player ever to register an attacking return in his first four Premier League appearances.

Milenkovic fired a bullet-header inches wide of the post; that might have claimed a win for Forest against a dreadfully lacklustre Liverpool. Later, a mishit cross from Aina dipped on to the roof of the net.

Big misses/big saves: A pair of fantastic stops near the end of the City v Newcastle clash, Pope, with his foot, blocking a fierce Foden drive, and Donnarumma just getting fingertips to a long-range volley from Barnes.

Cole Palmer had a great solo breakaway opportunity, but shot fairly tamely, from too far out.

Djordje Petrovic made a great reaction save from Callum Wilson's near-post flick in the closing minutes to save a point for Bournemouth.

Joel Veltman nearly deflected a ball into his own net in the dying minutes at Brentford, but Bart Verbruggen brilliantly clawed it off his goalline.

Richarlison's cheeky back-heel sneaked through David Raya's legs, but the keeper somehow recovered to claw the ball back off the line. Probably not a turning-point of the match, because Arsenal were already 3-1 up by that point, and completely dominating; but it was a big moment in FPL.

Mosquera's loose pass presented Yeremy Pino with a fairly straightforward chance to lob a stranded Jose Sa, but he put the effort well wide.

One has to wonder why on earth Tolo Arokodare was on penalties in the first place. Presumably he won't be again, after that absolutely dreadful one - that gifted 'penalty save' points to Dean Henderson (who, of course, I'd just transferred out....).

Romaine Mundle was put in one-one-one against Bernd Leno, but blazed wide from 10 yards out.

Outstanding goals: Anton Stach conjured a thumper of a free-kick to give Leeds the lead at Villa (although Emi Martinez left him far too inviting a gap in the right half of the goal!).

And Benjamin Sesko combined with Cunha and Mbeumo on Monday night to finish off one of the most incisive breakaway goals we'll see this season.

Outstanding performances: Nico O'Reilly, playing a full 90 minutes, playing in an advanced midfield role,... and snagging two great goals - is likely to be the performance of the week.

Big mistakes: A bizarre mistake from Nathan Collins gifted a decisive goal to Danny Welbeck.

Bad luck: Forest really didn't deserve to lose against Liverpool, and certainly not from Aina's clearance rebounding into the net off an oblivious Macallister. Fortunately, this goal was ruled out when VAR noticed that the ball had bounced into the net off the back of his upper-arm.

FPL weirdness: 

Unexpected results: Burnley holding Chelsea to a draw, and indeed very nearly beating them, was a bit of a turn-up. Villa fans will probably feel that dropping points at home to lowly Leeds was an unpleasant surprise; but given the way their team's form has been swinging over the last few weeks, and how strong Leeds have become since the start of December, it really wasn't. Brighton's very comfortable win at Brentford was also quite a surprise: it was their best performance for some weeks, and one of Brentford's weakest in a long time. Brighton, Bournemouth and West Ham being the only teams to keep a clean sheet on Saturday was also a mite unexpected. Liverpool were probably expected to win at the City Ground, but they were so dreadful on the day, they didn't really deserve even a draw; and their last-gasp winner looked a mile offside.

The FPL 'Team of the Week' after Saturday included absolutely no-one that anybody owns (apart from Nico O'Reilly, who's only in just over 5% of FPL teams); although eventually some moderately popular picks - Henderson, Van Dijk, Eze, Iwobi, Gyokeres - found their way in. It's looking set to be yet another wretchedly low-scoring gameweek, with a global average of just 45 points, and nothing much coming from any of the most popular players. Saturday was uncommonly free of refereeing cock-ups, but Sunday saw two fairly horrendous ones, with a Kolo Muani goal being unjustly disallowed while Macallister's miles-offside last-gasp winner was unfathomably allowed. Thus, it's getting up to about a 7 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.

Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 26

A few unpleasant selection surprises again this week; although, at least, not too many new injury disasters to add to our FPL troubles.

These weekly 'summaries' have been getting a bit too involved - and excessively time-consuming for me! - so I've been aiming to keep them briefer recently. I made just about zero progress on that resolution for the first few weeks, but.... now I've hit upon a new 'format', which might help: a tabulation of the major types of 'lucky' incidents. 

I will try to resist any extended commentary (although I probably will still indulge in a few diatribes about any particularly egregious penalty or handball incidents).

Red cards awarded: Jake O'Brien's sending-off was at least pretty clear-cut: one of the few big decisions in this gameweek that no-one can have much of an argument with.

Red cards not awarded: Kenny Tete appeared to have had a surreptitious tug on Semenyo's braids in the penalty area, but after some rumination, VAR felt that the TV pictures didn't give a decisive view of the incident (I bet there were some camera-angles that did; and they just didn't get around to accessing them). Phil Foden was also rather lucky to get away with a clumsy challenge on Bassey, planting his studs in the back of the defender's Achilles as he ran away from him - amazing that wasn't at least given a serious look by VAR.

Brobbey was wrestled to the ground in the penalty area by Konate; he went down 'easily', but he was clearly being held - I don't know how VAR can not give these! Ekitike was even more fortunate to go unpunished when he caught hold of Roefs's chin to pull him off-balance as he was trying to clear the ball: it was only a very brief contact, and possibly 'accidental' - but it was again a very clear and incontrovertible foul; and, as contact with the face, it might well have been considered worthy of a red card.

Arsenal can rightly feel aggrieved that Santiago Bueno did not receive a second yellow card, or possibly even a straight red, for what looked like a fairly deliberate shoulder-charge into Trossard - which caught the Arsenal attacker in the face, and led to him having to go off shortly afterwards. However, such was the intensity of Arsenal's meltdown in the closing portion of that game that it doesn't seem all that likely - and certainly not deserved - that a man advantage would have fully restored their composure and changed the outcome of the game.

Penalties awarded: Both penalties in the Chelsea v Leeds game were uncontentious.

Rayan's lunge did not appear to make any contact with Branthwaite, yet a penalty was awarded - and VAR didn't seem to pay the incident any further attention.

Penalties not awarded: Arsenal had a shout for a penalty in the first-half when Andre appeared to have brought down Hincapie, but there wasn't much in it; the two TV replays shown were both inconclusive as to how much contact the Wolves midfielder had made with either the man or the ball - but probably a little, not much, with either.

Tight/dubious offsides: Joe Willock's apparent opener against Spurs was eventually ruled out by VAR; yet again, the SAOT graphic was severely unhelpful, unconvincing - appearing to show that the last Spurs defender's shoulder was indeed at least marginally nearer to the byline than any part of Willock's body. A strange one. Casemiro also had a goal chalked off for a very tight offside; to the naked eye - and to the player himself - he had looked narrowly 'off'; but the SAOT picture again confused rather than clarified the call.

Goals wrongly allowed/disallowed:  Palace have a fair case that the ball bounced up on to Ugochukwu's arm at the beginning of the move that led to Burnley's second goal (and we didn't hear that VAR was even looking at that?).

Surprise omissions/early substitutions/injuries: Calvert-Lewin was a late omission on Tuesday, owing to an illness.

Both Pep and Marco Silva made a raft of substitutions just shy of the hour. And Haaland was withdrawn at half-time after suffering a heavy challenge.

Matty Cash was a last-minute omission, owing to a knee problem.

Eddie Howe left Hall, Wissa, and Tonali on the bench at Spurs.

Lots of surprises/disappointments for Arsenal fans in their first game of the gameweek against Brentford, the biggest of which was the omission of Saliba due to an illness. Havertz had also dropped out with another muscle strain, while Saka and Odegaard, struggling with injuries for a while, were only fit for the bench; hence, Madueke, Eze, and Mosquera got starts.

Near misses: Wirtz had a stinging 25-yard drive well palmed away by Roefs, and shortly afterwards hit a 15-yard cross-shot against the foot of the post.

Kadioglu cracked a long-range effort against the cross-bar in the first-half against Villa (Martinez got fingertips to it, but not enough for it to have counted as a 'save' - although it probably did!)

Big misses/big saves: Cole Palmer unbelievably sky-ed a late effort over the bar from a few yards out - when presented with an open-goal by Caicedo's low cross from the right.

Harry Wilson fluffed Fulham's best chance of the match (twice!) in the first-half at The Etihad - an opportunity he would surely have converted any other time in the last couple of months. Fulham also had a dangerous goal-mouth scramble in the closing seconds of the game, but couldn't find a way to prod home the consolation goal that would have wrecked everyone's 'clean sheet' points for City...

Ekitike had a free header near the end, but couldn't get his effort on target. Moments later, a Salah half-volley went just inches wide of the far post.

Martin Dubravka pulled off a superb save from an Ismaila Sarr volley in the final moments, to save the points for Burnley.

José Sá pulled off an important double-save late on against Forest to secure the draw - and make him (so far...) the gameweek's top-scoring keeper. In the first-half, Forest had enjoyed a 6-on-1 break, but Hudson-Odoi's cross found new-boy Lorenzo Lucca, who somehow spooned his effort over the top. At the death, Wolves had a 4-on-1 break, but this time Mateus Mané fired his shot tamely straight at the keeper.

Wan-Bissaka made a great goal-line block with his knee to preserve West Ham's lead.

Thiago had one powerful header brilliantly saved by Raya, while Lewis-Potter put one into the side netting - before eventually grabbing an equaliser. Thiago also blazed over from a good chance on a second-half breakaway. And Kelleher made a great stop from Martinelli at the end of a dangerous quick break late in the game. So, lots of excitement in that crucial game - but, as far as I can gather (from the very brief highlights so far available online), no refereeing screw-ups.

Outstanding goals: Hugo Bueno's delicious curler to start Arsenal's nerves rattnig on Wednesday was a peach of a shot - and enormous in its potential impact on the course of the season.

Outstanding performances: 

Big mistakes: An awful mix-up between Sanchez, Acheampong, and Gusto gifted Leeds an equaliser they didn't really deserve.

Bad luck: Lerma's own-goal was wretchedly unfortunate - Henderson's parry pinging into him from no distance, and being deflected into the net off his heel: one of the most improbable - and least culpable - o.g.'s I've ever seen.

Arsenal will feel that Wolves's late equaliser, cannoning in off the post and Calafiori's knee (twice!) was unlucky for them, but it wasn't at all outside the general run of expected game incidents. Saka's opening goal seemed considerably more fortuitous, since he barely got more than the tips of his hair to the ball, and that inconsequential, scarcely controlled deflection happened to take the ball straight through Sa's legs.

FPL weirdness: Surely Haaland should have had an assist for City's first goal? It looked to me as if he won the header cleanly, even if it subsequently got a bit of a deflection off the nearest defender on the way through to Semenyo to poke it home. 

And Van Dijk should not have been awarded Liverpool's late winner: the final decisive touch clearly came off the back of Diarra's head. (Maybe there's still time to reappraise that one? It really makes a huge difference in FPL land!! It's probably a case of a decision prejudiced by sentiment: with the assist currently awarded to Salah's corner, Super Mo has moved level with Steven Gerrard as Liverpool's second highest provider of assists [he'll never catch Kenny Dalglish...].)

There was another similar aberration at Villa Park, with Mings unaccountably being credited with an 'assist' on Hinshelwood's unfortunate late own-goal - though he clearly didn't get any contact on the ball, and the assist should properly have been given to Leon Bailey taking the corner.

There's also something very weird with the counting of 'saves' this week, with many keepers only being credited with 1 or 2, despite having fairly 'busy' games; Henderson and Dubravka seem to have been particularly hard done-by, with an official total of just 1 each - despite clearly getting at least a few more than that even in the brief TV highlights.

And it does seem very odd that Samuel Edozie has continued to be credited with Wolves's late, late equaliser on Wednesday night - when his effort was recorded as an own-goal by most news outlets; understandably so, since the shot struck Calafiori twice, as well as the post, before winding up behind the goal-line. I don't think the attacking player can reasonably still take credit when a defender has made two attempts to clear the ball, but still not managed to stop it going in.

Unexpected results: Chelsea really should have won comfortably against a Leeds side who were well below their recent best - but somehow they didn't.

The normally robust Everton defence wouldn't usually be expected to give away two such soft goals as they did against Bournemouth on Tuesday.

Liverpool really didn't deserve that win over Sunderland. Nor did Villa against Brighton.

Burnley put up a very spirited performance at Palace, but no-one would really have expected them to pull out a win here - especially after going 2-0 down! This was the most topsy-turvy result in a pretty wild gameweek.

Few people would have bet on either Forest or Wolves to keep a clean sheet - even against each other.

Although Manchester United were well below their recent levels, West Ham's clinging on to a draw against them was unexpected, and only just barely deserved.

The FPL 'Team of the Week' is another odd one, though not as crazy as most this season have been: José Sá is one of the few goalkeepers to have managed a clean sheet, which will have been an unexpected bonus for the many FPL managers who got him in just for this double gameweek; and the defence did at least include four fairly popular players (albeit ones who haven't consistently been producing at the highest level); although Hincapie - perhaps the least likely of the Arsenal defence to get a big return from the double, as he wasn't even an expected starter - eventually displaced one of them. Semenyo and Palmer, though, are the only attacking players that anyone owns; but again, with the benefit of a double appearance, Madueke, Saka, and Rice muscled their win, despite a pair of poor results for Arsenal. After the main batch of games, it was looking another utterly miserable gameweek average, of only 40 points' though the two Arsenal games eventually dragged that up to a more respectable 58 points, that's still not great for a Double Gameweek.

Liverpool were very, very fortunate to come out on top in a game where Sunderland mostly matched them pretty well; and they probably should have both conceded a penalty and had Ektike sent off - so, that rankles as a particularly unjust result in this batch of games. In fact, 6 of the first 9 games didn't really pan out according to expectation or desert. And, while I would argue that an Arsenal 'wobble' in their two games wasn't entirely unexpected, the majority expectation was not for two feeble draws from those two fixtures. And there have also been an usually large number of at least slightly dubious decisions, and non-appearances by popular players over the gameweek. I think this is actually one of the worst, weirdest gameweeks we've had in a long while, and it's at least an 8 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.

However, since everyone surely has 3 Arsenal players this week, almost everyone is making one of them captain, a fair few have 1 or 2 picks from Wolves as well, and many are playing a bonus chip to boot,... we''re still barely half-way through this gameweek. We'll have to wait another week to find out how bad things really are.

Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 25

 

Not too many new injury worries or unexpected selection woes this week... What a nice change!!

These weekly 'summaries' have been getting a bit too involved - and excessively time-consuming for me! - so I've been aiming to keep them briefer recently. I made just about zero progress on that resolution for the first few weeks, but.... this time, I'm going to try something new: just a tabulation of the major types of 'lucky' incidents. 

I will try to resist any extended commentary (although I probably will still indulge in a few diatribes about any particularly egregious penalty or handball incidents).

Red cards awarded: Romero's sending-off just before the half-hour at Old Trafford was not obviously unjust, but it was, for me, on the harsher end of things. It was misfortuitous that Casemiro's toe-studs had got stuck in the turf just before the Argentinian caught him on the inside of his ankle and so caused his foot to roll over so painfully; the actual contact was really not that hard. And we have seen many similar incidents in the last year or two dismissed as "having insufficient force to seriously endanger the opponent" or as "being an accidental contact from a natural follow-through". I think the Argentinian was a bit rash to have such a vigorous swish at a ball that was about to not be there any more; but it wasn't a really bad foul.

Red cards not awarded: Alisson's late penalty-foul on Nunes was not in any doubt; but the keeper had been fortunate in the first-half when he took the ball off a breaking Marmoush with a very high foot, and the Egyptian forward flinched out of the way of contact; if he had been caught, even slightly, that would have been a certain red card. Not a wrong decision - but a very lucky near-miss.

Penalties awarded: The handball decision against Jacob Murphy was very harsh: his arm was close to his side, not moving towards the ball - and the shot was fired directly at him from close range. If we accepted that blocking a goal-bound shot should always be a 'strict liability' offence, then fine - but I don't think that's the rule at the moment. If there's supposed to be some 'unnatural position' culpability element in the offence, then this looked like a bad call. A penalty for Newcastle seemed 'fair' on the balance of play (especially as they'd had a very harsh one awarded against them earlier), but Kayode's contact on the back of Guimaraes's leg was light and accidental - there was really nothing in that.

Both of Chelsea's awards were probably correct, but a bit soft: a slight - accidental! - treading on Joao Pedro's toe for the first, and a very, very light push (and only just barely over the line!) in his back for the second.

Penalties not awarded: Cunha suffered a shin-to-shin or knee-to-knee contact from Pape Sarr in the first half that tripped him on the edge of the box: not a bad foul, but very defiinitely a foul - and it looked like the point of contact was probably right over the outer edge of the line. It deserved a full consideration from VAR, which it seemed not to get. 

Two Sunderland players appeared to get wrestled to the ground in the Arsenal penalty area at a set-piece, in the final action of the first-half; it should have been looked at by VAR, but apparently wasn't - as the referee immediately blew the whstle to take the players off the field.

Marmoush surely should have had a penalty after 15 minutes at Anfield: Konate had both hands on him, and put his leg across - the combination of which threw him off balance as he entered the box. The contact was, yes, brief and light; but it was plainly deliberate and illegal, and more than enough to bring the man down. The only question should have been whether the contact had 'started outside the box' (possibly; but the consequential part of it was clearly on or just over the line). Somehow, the VAR team seemed to find this incident unworthy of their consideration. In the second-half, Salah was hauled down by a tug on the shirt from Guehi: the holding had certainly begun outside the box, but continued into it - and it will always be a bit of a grey area as to where the 'decisive moment' of such an illegal contact occurred. To me, that one looked like a penalty.

Tight/dubious offsides: Gabriel Jesus's break from the half-way line (which nearly produced a second goal barely a minute after Zubimendi gave them the lead) was very, very narrowly offside (and yet again, the SAOT graphic was a bit unconvincing - somehow making the margin look three times as big as it had to the naked eye!). This move ended in a penalty award from Sam Barrott when Jesus was nudged off the ball by Ballard while trying to round Roefs. Didn't look like a penalty to me; but VAR never looked at it, because of the prior offside. (I worry that they perhaps wouldn't have looked at it, even if Jesus had been adjudged onside, because they'd become too preoccupied with that issue....)

Surprise omissions/early substitutions/injuries: Udogie had to go off with a knock after just 54 minutes.

Noni Madueke was pulled of just shy of the hour.

Nuno dropped Areola in goal, in favour of Mads Hermansen - a potential blow to over 250,000 Fantasy managers (although most of them, perhaps, will only have the French keeper as a back-up option rather than their preferred starter).

Rosenior rested Reece James in favour of Malo Gusto.

Strand Larsen did indeed start straight away for Palace, replacing Mateta. Van Hecke is apparently struggling with a previously undisclosed hamstring problem, while Minteh and Welbeck were surprisingly left on the bench.

Cherki and Foden were this week's victims of Pep Roulette (and Foden did not look happy about it), as Marmoush and Ait-Nouri surprisingly got starts against Liverpool. 

Near misses: Calvert-Lewin smashed a header against the crossbar early on in Friday night's game at Elland Road.

Mbeumo's best chance of the game, a hooked half-volley from Diallo's lay-off, flew a bit too high. Cunha and Simons also had good 20-yard efforts fly just wide in Saturday's opening game.

Janelt scrambled a Wissa effort off the line - and an early two-goal lead for the home side would surely have changed the outcome of the match; indeed, Janelt went down the other end and headed an equaliser shortly afterwards. 

Mateus Mané whacked a 17-yard curler against the post.

Smith Rowe beat Pickford with a 20-yard dipper but saw it slam against the crossbar, while Chukwueze later unleashed an absolute screamer from 25 yards which grazed the top of the bar. In the same game, Jake O'Brien headed a corner against the post.

Big misses/big saves: Fernandes's floated chip found Sesko unmarked in the middle of the box in the final seconds of the game, but he headed softly straight at the keeper. Ektike fluffed a rather similar effort from a Salah cross against City.

Kelleher produced the 'Save of the Day' from a fierce cross-shot from Thiaw. Donnarumma's crucial late save from Macallister's long-range effort was perhaps a bit more showy than it needed to be - but still very good.

Outstanding goals: A 20-yard pinger from Zubimendi for Arsenal's first: perhaps very slightly mishit, but fizzed low, with a wicked in-swing to beat Roefs and thud in off the foot of the near post. And that 33-yard rocket of a free-kick from Szoboszlai!

Strangely, that was the only really striking effort this week. In most recent weeks we've had 3, 4, 5 bangers from outside the area (January's 'Goal of the Month' selection on the BBC was just ridiculous!!); but none of that this time, despite there being a rather higher number of goals overall (29).

Outstanding performances: Cole Palmer - suddenly recapturing the magic! Only about 12% of FPL managers own him at the moment: they must be very happy (though I suspect an awful lot of those are 'zombie accounts' that bought him at the start of the season, but soon stopped playing the game - rather than people who took a hopeful punt on bringing him back in for the present short run of relatively easy fixtures, before he'd recovered his form...). Although, yes, two of them were - slightly dubious - penalties... And he said afterwards that he still isn't "proper fit".

Big mistakes: NONE, remarkably.

Bad luck: Very unfortunate for Vitaly Mykolenko to have Pickford's save of a Raul effort ricochet off him into the goal! In the same game, Leno was perhaps even more unlucky to have a corner bounce in off his fist as he failed to get around the blocking Everton player.

Rayan Cherki's 'goal' in the dying seconds at Anfield would have been slightly lucky if it had stood, since he clearly intended a through-ball rather than an attempt on the goal left unguarded by Alisson's desperate foray into the attacking third. But equally, it seemed rather unlucky that it was disallowed because of a holding foul on Haaland by Szoboszlai (which inevitably earned him a sending-off, almost certainly the latest of the entire season...). And indeed, but for that foul, it would have been Haaland's goal. So, there were all kinds of massive FPL points fluctuations across the multiverse in that little 10-second fiasco!!

FPL weirdness: Dalot doing better on the BPS than Fernandes this week seems a trifle odd. And we have a rather low number of players earning 'defensive points' this week (although the top performers on this metric, Garner, Anderson, and Caicedo came through again): only 29, I think (4 of them from West Ham?!).

Unexpected results: Leeds's win over Forest on Friday night was not 'unexpected' in itself, though the ease of it, and the eventual margin of victory were; this was a game where the visiting team strangely failed to turn up.

A hell of a ding-dong between Newcastle and Brentford, with the home side ultimately very unlucky to lose it - as they got punished for Trippier going to sleep in the closing minutes.

The FPL 'Team of the Week' is again superlatively weird - with Palmer, Dalot, and Guimaraes (and, eventually, Haaland...) the only members so far that anybody owns! It was also shaping up to be yet another dismally low gameweek average, but a good haul from Haaland in the final game dragged it up to a respectable 57 points. Both of Chelsea's penalty awards were pretty soft, and the penalties for each side in the thrilling Newcastle v Brentford encounter both looked unjust, while Salah may have been a tad unlucky to miss out on being given one at Anfield. There were a couple of other potential penalties that should have been looked at by VAR, but seemed not to be. Although an uncommonly good weekend for the refereeing, there have been enough other odd events already this weekend to make it this time at least a 5 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.