Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 21

The 'holiday' mayhem continues into a cold, wet January - now with an added sprinkle of uncertainty and confusion from the opening of the mid-season transfer window. And it's another midweek gameweek, following on with very little break from the last batch of fixtures at the weekend...!

The 'early' fixture on Tuesday, West Ham v Forest, was a pretty drab affair. West Ham were somewhat improved over their recent terrible performances, and might feel a little aggrieved that the Fates were so harsh on them here: they appeared to have taken a 2-0 lead early in the second-half through Summerville's stinging half-volley from the edge of the box, but it was ruled out for a very narrow offside by someone else during the build-up. They conceded an equaliser soon afterwards, again an unlucky fluke: Dominguez's near-post flick-on from a corner was completely uncontrolled, intended merely to help the ball on towards the far post - but it fortuitously looped high into the far top corner of the goal. And then the visitors sealed the points with an extremely soft penalty (goalkeeper collides with an attacking player when trying to punch away a corner - when is that ever culpable?).

Bournemouth finally ended their long - and often very unlucky - winless run with a narrow victory over a spirited Spurs. Their visitors had taken an early lead with a fine solo effort from Tel (although his final shot from the edge of the box was not very powerful, and Petrovic was probably somewhat at fault in letting it past him), but Evanilson soon equalised with possibly the best header we've yet seen this season. A rasper from Kroupi then put them ahead, but in the second-half Spurs pinned them down in their own box for long periods, and an equaliser began to seem inevitable. Spurs were frustrated when a penalty awarded to Van de Ven, going down in the box after one of his marauding 60-yard carries, was rescinded after a pitchside review; but the wonder here was that Darren England ever bought such an elaborate dive - the Spurs man was really lucky to escape a booking for 'simulation' (although he got one anyway for arguing about the decision); presumably that was only because there had indeed been some contact with the Bournemouth defender, but clearly 'initiated' by his own leaping into him. Other good efforts - a long-range curler fizzed on to the roof of the net by Bergvall in the first-half, a corner headed against the foot of the post by Richarlison early in the second - had failed to go in, but eventually Palhinha got them their deserved equaliser with a spectacular bicycle-kick. Alas for Spurs, this roused the home side to go on the attack again in the closing 10 minutes, and Semenyo finally came up with a screamer in the final moments of added-on time. There seems to have been only one bad refereeing decision in this one, and that was corrected with the help of VAR. But it was remarkable that all of the goals were such improbable bangers (a mini 'Goal of the Month' competition in one game!): both teams had an xG of only about 1.4, but the match ended up 3-2??!

Poor Sunderland really seem to be struggling without their African contingent, especially their midfield lynchpin Sadiki. They barely mustered an attempt on goal at Brentford, and even squandered a chance to equalise from the penalty spot (Kelleher will presumably be credited with a 'save', but Le Fee chipped it tamely into his hands). Brentford really could have won by a much bigger margin, with Lewis-Potter (from a free-kick) and Schade both rattling the woodwork.

Villa were well below their best on their visit to Palace, and although it was quite a lively game, both defences ultimately came out on top. Palace had most of the chances, but couldn't convert; and the best opportunity probably came right at the end for the visitors, when Lindelof got a great header on Cash's left-footed cross, but it hit the post. Villa fans - and some FPL managers - will be alarmed that Emi Martinez, perhaps suffering from his 'back problem' again, had to be replaced at half-time by Marco Bizot.

Michael Keane popped up for a goal yet again, his third of the season; although this was a somewhat untypical one, not powering home a header from three yards out, but having a hopeful swing at a mishit shot by Iroegbunam. He nearly notched a second not too long after, heading powerfully against a post from Garner's delightful dead-ball delivery. But Wolves fought back bravely in the second-half, and their new teen sensation Mateus Mané again grabbed a superb goal to earn them a point. Everton had to weather a late storm after Keane foolishly got himself sent off for tugging on Arokodare's braids as they both jumped for a high ball in the middle of the park. And in the closing minutes, Grealish also got himself sent off for showing dissent twice in quick succession. Shortly after that, Hugo Bueno nearly claimed a winner, his 25-yard curler being brilliantly fingertipped over the bar by Pickford for the 'Save of the Week'.

Fulham failed to make the most of their one-man advantage, after Cucurella had got himself sent off early in the game for hauling back a breaking Harry Wilson just short of the penalty area; Chelsea were still on top for long spells, and unfortunate not to put away some of their chances. But the irrepressible Harry Wilson - the hottest player in the league at the moment - came through with a late winner for them (after being denied one earlier for a very harsh offside).

With Dias expected to be out for at least a month with a thigh strain and Gvardiol facing a lengthy recuperation from a broken leg, Pep opted to bring back 20-year-old Max Alleyne from loan at Watford (where he's had 15 starts, and has apparently been playing very well) to start in central defence along with the recalled Khusanov. As if that weren't disruption enough, he also chose to 'rest' not only just-back-from-injury Rodri, but also Cherki and O'Reilly, two of his best players over the last month or so. Not so surprising then, that City were so far off their usual game (although it was a lack of control in midfield more than a lack of cohesion in defence that seemed to be the problem early on), and Brighton dominated the early part of the game, forcing a few saves out of Donnarumma and a superb last-ditch challenge from Khusanov to deny Rutter. It was unfortunate for the plucky visitors that they conceded the lead - to a Haaland penalty, after carelessly giving the ball away 30 yards out on their right-flank, leading to City's only decent attack of the opening period - deep in first-half stoppage time. The second-half was more even, although Brighton still had slightly the best of it (though being lucky to survive some big scares, particularly when twice passing the ball to Bernardo Silva in their own box; the first time, shortly after the interval, he rushed his shot and slammed it against the outside of the post; the second, he unselfishly squared the ball to Haaland, who couldn't beat Verbruggen) and deservedly got an eventual equaliser through Mitoma.

Interim United coach Darren Fletcher switched to a much more sensible 4-2-3-1 line-up, with a potent-looking attacking three of Cunha, Fernandes, and Dorgu supporting Sesko, and they produced one of their best displays for a long while - with Sesko bagging a brilliant brace (very nearly a hattrick, or more). The home side, however, rose to the occasion and gave perhaps their best performance of the entire season. Burnley left-back Bashir Humphreys, making only his third start of the season, gave the home side a fortuitous lead when his cross took a huge deflection off Ayden Heaven to loop over Lammens into the goal. And shortly afterwards, the youngster preserved the lead by clearing Cunha's header out from under his crossbar. A little later though, Sesko was unjustly denied an equaliser when his goal was ruled out for a non-existent 'foul' by Martinez (Walker had fallen over under the lightest possible push in his back, scarcely even a caress...). Esteve then made an even more stunning goal-line block from Dorgu's dink over the keeper. United made a storming start to the second period, with Sesko grabbing a quickfire brace, and Fernandes firing against the post, but then Jaidon Anthony finally found his scoring boots again (remember, he notched 4 in the opening 6 games to make him a surprise FPL frontrunner, but has had a long string of blanks since then) to earn a point. In a thrilling match, 18-year-old United winger Shea Lacey, given a token run-out for the last 5 minutes or so, also cracked a superb effort against the crossbar. Overall, a draw seemed a fair result here, but this new-look United emphatically demonstrated that they are potentially a far better team than the inept Amorim has allowed them to be over the last year-and-a-bit.

Poor Malick Thiaw had some rotten luck, first falling over to give away the ball to Aaronson to nick the opening goal, and then having a penalty given against him to put the home side behind again (very harsh, this one: it was not clear where on the upper arm the ball struck him, and it was entirely outside of his control, as he was falling over and only had his arms extended to break his fall - I really don't see how this one was given); and then being withdrawn at half-time (injury, or just being spared further embarrassment/fearing that his confidence had been fatally dented??). They also lost Schar 15 minutes from the end, with what looks like it might be a bad ankle injury - so, once again, the club is getting dangerously short of fit defenders, and will probably have to look to bring in stop-gaps over the window. Despite these setbacks, Newcastle increasingly dominated the game as it went on, but they survived a big scare when James Justin beat Pope to an Aaronson cross from the left but headed against the crossbar, and then went behind again from another banger from Aaronson. But Aaronson was then penalised for a handball in the closing minutes of regular time to give the home side a lifeline (again very harsh: the ball was fired at him from such close-range that he really had no chance to get out of the way; moreover, he appeared to be just outside the box - and we never heard VAR's verdict on this issue). We then got a colossal 10 minutes of additional time indicated (apparently very largely for Leeds's time-wasting late in the game), extended yet further by an injury stoppage after the end of the regulation 90 minutes - enabling Barnes's to grab the winner in the 102nd minute! It was probably a deserved result on the overall balance of play - but very hard on Leeds, who'd come so close to a vital win.

The Arsenal v Liverpool game ended up being a tense goalless draw, as might have been expected. Arsenal imposed relentless pressure in the final third for the first 15 minutes or so, but couldn't find a breakthrough, and from there on the visitors were increasingly able to get into the game, and created more moments of real danger. The worst of these was when a hasty back-pass from Saliba found Raya charging out towards the edge of the box, such that the keeper had to make an immediate panicked clearance which went straight to Bradley, whose first-time effort from 30 yards struck the face of the crossbar. Szoboszlai also went fairly close with a long-range free-kick in the second-half. Arsenal's only major chance fell to Gabriel in the final seconds of the game, when he was first to Madueke's high corner at the far post but couldn't control his header. It's a measure of how sterile the game ultimately was that only Konate and Zubimendi earned 'defensive points', and only just barely; both sides had long spells of ultimately unproductive possession, not much to-and-fro. Liverpool, however, might feel somewhat cheated in that they had two pretty good penalty shouts ignored. In the first, Hincapie brought down Frimpong and left him in some pain: the contact didn't look that heavy, and might have been interpreted as a half-and-half 'coming together', but the Arsenal defender definitely stepped into the attacker, and happened to catch his toe just as he was lifting his foot - turning the foot sharply inwards and badly spraining the ankle. Later, Wirtz was brought down by Trossard, but again got nothing: the German probably ran into his opponent too readily, went down a little elaborately - but again, Trossard clearly stepped across him, and we see those given more often than not. Both calls might have been slightly contentious, not entirely clearcut; but to me they both looked considerably more than 50/50 in Liverpool's favour, and it really seems a travesty that they didn't get either of them. (Will these incidents stop Arsenal fans whingeing that big decisions never go their way? Of course not!)  Unhappy news at the end, when Conor Bradley collapsed on the touchline immediately after making a clearance in stoppage time, and looked as though he might have ruptured knee ligaments - let's hope not; he has been one of the few bright spots in Liverpool's thus-far tepid season. Hincapie also had to come off early in the second-half.

It's another rather weird FPL 'Team of the Week', with Thiago the only widely owned player featuring in it, and Kelleher coming out as top keeper for his not-really-a-save from Le Fee's epically bad penalty attempt. And it's yet again a miserably low global average of just 48 points - though at least this time we haven't had any such egregious misfortunes as an injury-flagged player unexpectedly starting and getting the haul of the week...! An unusually large number of goals, most of them again from somewhat unexpected sources, 3 red cards (all uncontentious, at least), an unjustly denied goal for Benjamin Sesko, bad penalty decisions against both Newcastle and Leeds in their game, a questionable one against West Ham to deny them a draw, and 2 very dubious 'no penalty' decisions for Liverpool which might have skewed the title race, plus a few very tight offsides again - it's not quite as bad as GW20, but still looking like an 8 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter' this gameweek.