Tuesday, November 3, 2026

"Many a mickle...."

An AI simulation of a grayscale engraving of an old man in 19-century costume counting a pile of money spread across the table in front of him: a classic depiction of a 'miser'

An important corollary to my earlier post this morning on why the fear of losing a newly transferred-in player to a midweek injury is unduly exaggerated... is that  many FPL managers seem oblivious to the usefulness of building squad value.

The motivation for moving early to transfer in a player is to avoid a possible price-rise on that player (and/or a possible price-drop on the player you're moving out to make room for him).

The sceptics always object that there is no cause to be worried about losing a puny 100,000 pounds. But of course, if you delay too long, you might suffer two price changes on a player in the same week; it's rare, but it can happen. It's fairly common that you might suffer a rise on a player you covet and a fall on a player you're looking to offload on the same day.

So, we're often talking about not just a 100k loss from waiting to make a transfer, but 200k - occasionally even 300k or 400k!

The sceptics still pooh-pooh that, still claim it's a trivial sum that should have no impact on your thinking about the game.

But the thing is..... these 'trivial' gains or losses very quickly accumulate into bigger sums. Even if you're only avoiding such a price-shift on 1 transfer in every 3 or 4 you make - by regularly moving early on players rather than waiting to the end of the gameweek - within a few months, those small gains can add up to a million pounds or so of extra squad budget. And that does make a big difference.


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