Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 13

After a number of mostly quite drab gameweeks lately, this one was looking set to be a belter, with non-stop action in all of Saturday's encounters; though Sunday was most a bit of a comedown from that rush. It's also potentially an object lesson in not getting too excited about an apparently 'unbalanced' set of fixtures as a Free Hit (or Bench Boost) opportunity, as games often do not turn out at all as expected. City didn't keep a clean sheet against bottom-of-the-table Leeds, and were ultimately lucky to nick a late win; Brentford had a really tough time getting past stubborn Burnley, Bournemouth didn't manage their expected win over Sunderland (though no side should really be fancied to beat Sunderland at home at the moment!), Spurs lost at home to lowly Fulham (again, that shouldn't have been completely unexpected on recent form), Palace came up short at home against a not-that-impressive Manchester United, and Newcastle finally managed to win away from home - while putting 4 past the usually adamantine Everton defence, but not keeping a clean sheet themselves either. FPL managers might have been picking up some good points on attacking assets (except Haaland!!), but defences took a battering. - with only the often leaky Liverpool and Villa back-lines coming away with clean sheets this weekend.

Brentford were making heavy weather of their home game against bottom-of-the-table Burnley, failing to break down the visitors' resolute defence despite massive domination of possession for long spells,.... until there was an improbable flurry of goals in the last 10 minutes. It was nice to see Thiago quickly lay to rest any concerns that last week's awful penalty flub may have undermined his confidence, as he not only banged in a very confident penalty here, but also notched a fine finish from open play. There is, however, an element of doubt about that penalty award: Tuanzebe, although he was playing through the back of Ouattara, did seem to get a very clean touch on the ball through the striker's legs (and if this was a penalty, Van de Ven's very messy challenge in the late game should have been as well!); this seemed like yet another instance where VAR just didn't want to get involved, was just willing to accept whatever the referee's initial call had been.

Oh dear, yes, Erling Haaland - with that dread inevitability that makes Fantasy Premier League such an exasperating game - drew a 'blank' this weekend, for only the fourth time this season, thus breaking the hearts of nearly 1.25 million managers (I'd thought it would be more) who had punted their first Triple Captain chip on him. Surprises that might ultimately have had even greater impact in FPL though - well, apart from the Leeds second-half comeback, which left the home side rattled, and nearly threatened with a most unexpected defeat - were the unexplained omission of the recently excellent Rayan Cherki (a particularly perverse and inscrutable Pep decision, which must have infuriated his more than 600,000 owners, 100,000 of whom had only just brought him in this week!), and a sudden reappearance of Peak Phil Foden, who rediscovered his scoring boots after a long string of mostly fairly anonymous performances in the league, and only a solitary assist in the last 8 starts (to add insult to injury for many, he pretty much stole his first goal off Haaland's toe!). It is curious - almost uncanny - that Foden was one of the most popular picks for managers going with a Free Hit play this week; there was no obvious rationale for that in form or tactics (lately, he's been started in a deeper midfield position, which is why he hasn't often been threatening much in the final third), while Doku and Cherki have been far more productive options in the last few games; those folks who picked him must have access to a crystal ball (that actually works)!! 

Also, I think there might have been a case for Gvardiol to receive a red card for his ridiculous, nearly waist-high lunge on Nmecha: that must surely have been open to consideration, at least, as a 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity', and arguably perhaps also as 'endangering an opponent' (his defence there would be that it was more of a block than a tackle, attempting to throw his body between the opponent and the ball to bar his progress; but it was very ugly, he was very high and out-of-control, he did make contact, he did bring the player down....); yet neither the referee nor the VAR team seemed to spend any time considering that at all, because.... officials just don't give big decisions like that against one of the big clubs when they're playing at home.....  Gvardiol had already been fortunate to have his headed goal from a corner stand, to put his team 2-0 up, as Bernardo Silva had clearly backed into Perri on the goal-line, and then had a cheeky little tug at the inside of his elbow as the keeper pushed past him; it wasn't much, but it was enough, I think, to class as clear 'interference' with the keeper's movement, the sort of infraction we're often seeing given these days,.... except when it's against City at home.

Very much the proverbial 'game of two halves' this one, with Leeds doing well to weather a storm of early pressure (Perri making outstanding saves from Foden and Gonzalez, and a few other fierce efforts from around the edge of the box being well blocked by heroic defending), and then coming out after the interval with renewed energy and purpose - able to take advantage of City rather taking their foot off the gas for a while. It was ultimately a very, very fortunate escape for City, whose title hopes would have suffered a huge blow if they'd let any points slip away here, let alone all of them. I also fret rather that Haaland didn't just have a 'quiet' game, but actually looked heavy-legged and completely devoid of his usual spark throughout; I wonder if he's carrying an injury niggle of some sort (or maybe his baby just had a bad night and stopped him getting any sleep....?). The optimists will say that it was all part of Pep's gameplan that he should just be content to plod around in Zones 14 and 17, attracting two or three Leeds defenders to him all the time, so that other teammates could more readily find space. I hope it was that, but I don't find it a very convincing thesis.

Sunderland showed tremendous spirit to fight back and eventually claim a win, after falling behind to a pair of stunning goals within the opening 15 minutes (Tyler Adams's long-range lob was from the edge of the centre-circle, even further out than Richarlison's very similar goal last week: they'll probably make it a two-horse race for the latest 'Goal of the Month' prize!). Antoine Semenyo was showing no sign of his recent injury problem, comfortably lasting the full game; but his 6.5 million owners will be irked that he was twice denied an assist - when his superb low cross set up a close-range Evanilson effort that was somehow turned on to a post by Roefs in the opening minutes (although Adli followed up to claim the first goal), and in the second-half, when Evanilson was guilty of a very tight offside when unnecessarily prodding home Semenyo's effort on the goal-line (although his cross-shot had probably been off-target until taking a deflection through a defender's legs, so again it would probably only have been an assist); and then near the end he picked up a booking, apparently for arguing slightly too vociferously with one of the referee's many rather questionable decisions. This game really was on a knife-edge throughout (and, unfortunately, became rather ill-tempered in the closing minutes), with both keepers earning 'saves' points, and Marcus Tavernier coming agonisingly close to a third goal for Bournemouth with a fierce 20-yard half-volley that smashed against the underside of the bar. Best game of the weekend!

Lots of surprises in the Newcastle line-up at Everton: at least Pope's replacement in goal by Ramsdale was supposedly down to a late injury problem, but the selection of Miley over Tonali and Elanga over Murphy were headscratchers - presumably rest rotations after their midweek trip to Marseille. The changes worked out fairly well, though, as Newcastle, so often ineffectual on the road over the past few seasons, and especially straight after a European game, here were lively and on the front foot from the kick-off, and actually managed to look more like the home team; while Everton, perhaps suffering from the absence of Idrissa Gueye to give them some steel in the middle, looked oddly defensively vulnerable, especially at set-pieces. However, after going 4-0 up in under an hour, Newcastle relaxed a bit too much, and Everton came back at them quite strongly: Barry was unlucky to have a goal ruled out for an accidental touch on his arm as he brought the ball under control, and Carlos Alcaraz unleashed the hardest shot I've seen in years - a 20-yard-rocket that must have nearly broken the crossbar.

Spurs's woes at home continue, as they managed to concede 2 bad goals in the opening 6 minutes - and very nearly even more, in a rampant spell of early pressure from Fulham: new winger Samuel Chukwueze was unlucky to see his crisp curler glance off the outside of the far post. He was also unfortunate not to get a penalty, when a rash and untidy lunge from Van de Ven rather fortuitously dispossessed him, although it was completely through the back of him and also brought him down; I don't know how that didn't at least merit a 'second look', particularly as a similar, but much less egregious challenge in the Brentford game earlier had resulted in a penalty award. Spurs fans will lay most of the blame for another embarrassing result at the doorstep of goalkeeper Vicario, who not only committed a string of horrendous errors to give away the crucial second goal (shouldn't have come for the ball in the first place, was lucky to be able to claim it, should have put it into touch when he saw he had no support, rather than trying to hoof it upfield without even looking properly, hence giving it straight back to Fulham;... and, for me, although he probably would have had no chance of stopping Harry Wilson's perfect curler into the empty net, he should at least have sprinted to try to get back), but looked visibly rattled and error-prone thereafter, flapping at crosses and so on; great shot-stopper though he is, I've never felt that he looks secure enough in his all-around game to be a Premier League keeper. I suspect poor Thomas Frank is now the favourite to be the next manager to be sacked - unless he can turn results and performances around very quickly.

Well, I suppose it was inevitable that we'd have a bit of a comedown after the rollercoaster excitement of the Saturday games, and The Curse of the Early Kick-off may have been in play as well, but the noon game between Crystal Palace and Manchester United was stupendously dull. Even after United had nicked 2 quick goals out of nothing early in the second-half (an excellent snap half-volley on a very acute angle wide on the left of the box from Zirkzee, and Mason Mount apparently catching Henderson by surprise with a quick free-kick punched low through a gap in the wall), and the home side had to go chasing a result,.... things didn't really pick up very much. I thought Mateta's opening penalty in the first-half was a bit of a soft award: Yoro probably did make contact with his lower leg, twice; but both such light touches that they shouldn't really even have put the big forward off his stride, let alone brought him crashing down. I'm all in favour of punishing such exaggerated responses with a yellow card for 'simulation' - even if they have been prompted by some contact. I think this is also the first time we've seen a penalty have to be retaken under the new rule that a double-touch by the taker is a 'forgivable error' (I do not like this rule: it is absolutely avoidable, and it's the kick taker's responsibility to make sure that it doesn't happen; if he fails to do so, he deserves to have squandered his chance of converting the kick). Yoro was taken off after only 54 minutes, and didn't look at all happy about it; this looks like more poor man-management from Amorim. And Ismaila Sarr went off well before half-time, having apparently jarred his ankle (and/or knee?) in hurdling a challenge early in the game. So, owners of either of those players in FPL (not many!) would be especially unhappy with this turn of events. We also saw an egregious example of the frailty of the BPS, and the general unsatisfactoriness of scoring and stat-compiling in this game failing to take any account of qualitative factors, in that Bruno Fernandes was credited with 2 'assists' - one, a hopeful chip into the box for Zirkzee, in a position where he could not score (yet, miraculously, he somehow managed to), and the other simply rolling a free-kick a few feet sideways for Mason Mount to have a pop at driving the ball through a gap in the wall; neither of these actions in any way 'created' the goalscoring opportunity, so, in commonsense terms, they should not be considered 'assists'. Moreover, because so little else happened in this drab game, those two nominal 'assists' were sufficient to secure Bruno maximum bonus points as well: that is not just.

Ollie Watkins was anorther 'surprise' rest rotation (or perhaps the change was motivated more by form, since the striker has become a stranger to the goal this season); it's nice to see the recently very impressive Donyell Malen getting a try-out as a lone striker, but it remains uncertain for now whether he will secure a regular start from Emery. Agony for poor Wolves to find the net first, through a fine Strand Larsen volley, but have it ruled out - though undoubtedly correctly, as Jhon Arias, in an offisde position, had run directly in front of Emi Martinez as the shot was coming in. The visitors were actually well on top throughout the first half, with Martinez having to make excellent saves from another Strand Larsen shot and a thunderous Mosquera header. The Norwegian striker fluffed the best chance of the game early in the second-half, when he somehow failed to make contact with a perfect set-up at the far post from Bellegarde - although Pau Torres's last-ditch block/tackle attempt appeared to get nothing of the ball and maybe something of the man, so merits consideration as another possible missed penalty award. And Wolves could again feel rightly aggrieved that Villa's goal was allowed to stand, as possession had initially been won with the aid of Morgan Rogers inadvertently stamping on Joao Gomes's toe - an infraction that was crystal clear on the TV replays, and should have been easy for VAR to spot (yet somehow they didn't). However, Wolves were maybe a little lucky not to see Arias sent off when he jumped with both feet on to Kamara's instep; it may have been accidental, a bunny-hop intended to lift him clear of contact, but he misjudged it so badly that he ended up stomping directly on his opponent's foot: another 50/50 type of call that we very often see go against the perpetrator.

Nottingham Forest are another team who are suffering a hangover from their midweek European football. They looked seriously out of gas here, allowing visitors Brighton to completely overrun them for much of the game; only some resolute defending stopped it becoming a cricket-score. The home side's only decent chance - a swift counter-attack initiated by Sels and ending in a sharp shot from the edge of the box by Igor Jesus -  brought an outstanding save, possibly the weekend's best, from Verbruggen with an outstretched leg.

West Ham v Liverpool wasn't much better than the dismal lunchtime game: a little bit more energy, a slightly higher quality of football, but still almost nothing in the way of goal threat. The final scoreline flattered Liverpool heavily, as West Ham had actually enjoyed the bulk of the possession, with the first of the visitors' goals coming kind of out of nowhere, and the second only in injury time, after the Hammers had been reduced to 10 men. Isak, again an unexpected starter over the more in-form Ekitike, again had a pretty subdued game, but did manage to put away a half-chance when it fell to him, snapping off a quick low shot from the edge of the box that didn't have a lot of power in it, but somehow managed to slip through a dfender's legs and just eluded Areola's dive at the foot of the near-post. The major excitement of the game, though, was Lucas Paqueta's almost comically self-destructive sending-off for prolonged haranguing of the referee about his booking. The ref, I thought, actually showed undue restraint in the length of time it took him to produce the second yellow; the confrontation had dragged on so long that several other players, including some on the opposing side, had intervened to try to lead him away from the catastrophe he was bringing on himself and his team. Both cards were for dissent; I can't remember the last time we saw that happen! And he could have earned another for the sarcastic applause he gave the ref as he very slowly left the pitch; I wonder if the FA might take further action on this, as a particularly unnecessary and hostile show of disrespect to the official. And oh dear me, BPS is up to its old tricks again, bizarrely determining that Cody Gakpo was somehow worthy of the maximum extra points, although he contributed almost nothing to the game, apart from the late and irrelevant second goal.

The major FPL news of the day, however, was the 'shock' omission of Mo Salah from the starting line-up (his owners should count themselves lucky that he didn't get on from the bench either, so at least they have the chance of some points from an FPL auto-sub). Astonishingly, over 3 million managers in FPL still own him; some were even bringing him back in this week - especially if using the Free Hit - because they fancied his chances against West Ham. It will be interesting to see how quick and dramatic the sell-off now is. (I suspect, not that bad: a lot of the people that still own him are probably 'zombie accounts' that gave up playing the game early in the season; the rest might be mostly hardcore idolaters who will stick by him forever, no matter what.)  Given how badly he took being benched by Klopp towards the end of the 23/24 season, I wonder if this betokens that his career at Liverpool is now over, and the Saudis are expected to come in for him again in the January transfer window?

Another big selection surprise in the Chelsea v Arsenal game, with Saliba being a last-minute omission having apparently picked up a knock in training. This predictably produced the best match of the day, with some expansive and often end-to-end football, although ultimately both defences were on top and neither side managed to carve out any major openings. Arteta might be concerned that the home side did not appear seriously incommoded by the early sending-off of Caicedo, and in fact continued to have a majority of possession and to get the ball into the final third. The red card, I feel, was a bit of a 50/50: the challenge was high and badly mistimed, but not reckless or malicious, certainly not 'out of control'; it was unfortunate that he happened to catch Merino above the ankle, the contact was made harder by the fact that the Arsenal player was kicking that foot towards him (he had in fact only cleared the ball away a fraction of a second earlier, which makes the mistiming of the challenge more forgivable). While the sending-off didn't seem obviously unfair, a three-match ban for this tackle does seem disproportionate - not all straight-red fouls are bad enough to merit that punishment.

The FPL 'Team of the Week' is usually one of the strongest indicators of the fluctuating 'luck factor': and once again - as in just about every week so far this season - it's looking like it might be quite a bizarre collection: a goal for defender Kenny Tete (and De Cuyper and Tzimas of Brighton on Sunday) and a brace for Newcastle's Malick Thiaw make them rather unexpected inclusions; and none of the 5 midfielders in the line-up after Saturday would have been in very many FPL teams (and Lewis Miley wouldn't even have been expected to start!), though at least Woltemade and Thiago up front were more expected successes. Also, we saw that ulimate 'Black Swan Event': a Dominic Calvert-Lewin goal (amazingly, about 95,000 people do own him!) - sorry, Dom, but you know...  There's an uncommonly low Global Average score again this week too, just 35 points; yet the weekly high score is a massive 123 points, and the average high score (probably a better gauge of the disparity between what is reasonably possible and what many/most people seem to be actually getting) I see in my leagues is in the low 70s. I think the spread of scores, as represented by this gap between the 'majority score' reflected by the global average and what the most successful players of the week are getting could be the most reliable indicator of luck from week to week. I'm going to try to look into this and compile some figures.

Things are probably going to be heavily distorted this week also by the large number of FPL managers punting their Free Hit chip; although things probably didn't go all that well for most of them, with so many unexpected results and unexpected goalscorers this weekend. And for a very large proportion, also, Haaland's rare blank, when they had their Triple Captain chip riding on him, was a major slice of bad luck. On the other hand, a fair number of people made an impulsive decision at the last moment to switch their TC to someone like Igor Thiago (or Malick Thiaw?!), and are now probably wallowing in their smugness. It is, indeed, a funny old game. 

But at least there hasn't been all that much terrible refereeing this time; well, apart from a penalty dubiously awarded to Brentford, and dubiously not awarded to Fulham, and Villa's goal against Wolves that really should have been disallowed; and a bit of over-generosity to the benefit of Manchester City and Josko Gvardiol! However, an unusually large number of goals - and correspondingly few clean sheets - and some very unexpected goalscorers (a lot of defenders again!), some major selection upsets (no Salah, no Cherki, no Garnacho, no Saliba, no Watkins, no Pope,...), and blanks or very low returns for almost all of the most fancied players (Mbeumo, Semenyo, Saka, Doku, Neto, Minteh,...), and improbably high returns for Foden and Gakpo (who weren't even 100% to start this week, and really had no reason to be expected to produce anything on their recent form), I think this week gets up to another 8 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.

TOO SOON!!!

Christmas has become strangely popular in East Asia over the last few decades - especially in China; but really, everywhere across the region.

The seasonal decorations started going up in my sleepy little hometown last weekend (and they'll probably stay up till around March!). And I got Whammed! for the first time on Sunday afternoon last week in a local supermarket. Come on, people, we're not even out of November yet!  Cruel and unusual punishment indeed!

I see the official challenge doesn't actually start until tomorrow, so I suppose I'm still in with a chance of survival. But the omens are not good....

Early wake-up

It is, somehow, an Iron Law of the Universe that, if you live in Asia, you are never more than about 150 metres away from some sort of construction project.

There is an unfortunate corollary to this Law - that if it's 7 o'clock on a Sunday morning, you are probably within 50 metres of someone using an angle-grinder....

Dilemmas of the Week - Gameweeks 13/14 (25/26)

Amazingly, we seem to have been spared too many new injury concerns this week, so this ahould again be a pretty brief rundown!

However, since the gameweeks are packed so tightly together next week, in the beginning of the crazy December fixture logjam, I fear I won't have time to compile a separate roundup for Gameweek 14. (I'll try to add the most important news to this post after the weekend, if I can).

I'm trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 13 (and 14!) of the season?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Leandro Trossard had to come off wiith a knock in Wednesday night's game against Bayern, and might now be a doubt against Chelsea. Noni Maduke would presumably take his place on the left wing.

At Bournemouth, Ryan Christie has apparently been playing with discomfort in his knee for some while, and it now looks as if he's going to need a few weeks' rest.

Brentford's Fabio Carvalho apparently suffered an ACL injury in training ahead of last week's game, and will probably miss the rest of the season after having surgery. 

Seamus Coleman pulled a hamstring in Monday night's game at Old Trafford and is likely to be out for some weeks; although he hasn't been getting many minutes this season anyway.

Leeds midfielder Anton Stach had to go off with a head injury against Villa last week, and is likely to miss at least a game or two under 'concussion protocols'. Sean Longstaff is also set to be out for 4-6 weeks after picking up a serious calf injury in training this week, which threatens to leave Leeds light in the engine-room.

Hugo Ekitike appeared to suffer a problem with his back when being forced to come off after about an hour against PSV at Anfield the other night; he now seems doubtful for this weekend, at least. Alisson missed the midweek game against PSV with illness, but is expected to be OK for the West Ham game.

Kieran Trippier apparently has another hamstring problem, which is expected to keep him out for about a month.

Morgan Gibbs-White may be a doubt for the weekend, after missing Thursday night's game against Malmo with a lower-back problem. Murillo also seemed to be in discomfort with his troublesome thigh again in that game, so may also be a question-mark.

In probably the biggest injury news of the week, Matheus Cunha apparently suffered some kind of head injury in training which led to his late omission from Monday's game against Everton, and leaves him still doubtful now (although he hasn't yet found his form for United this season, so is not very high-owned; however, with Mbeumo and Amad Diallo both off to AFCON after this coming week, he might become a more popular choice soon).

Going into the midweek Gameweek (GW14):

William Saliba was a surprise omission against Chelsea on Sunday, having felt a muscle problem after training. No details yet, but it sounds like he might be out for a few weeks.

Georginio Rutter is hobbling after gettting a knock in the game against Forest on Sunday.

Ismaila Sarr jarred his ankle with a heavy landing, and had to come off in the first half against United; looks like a sprain that may keep him out for the rest of the week, at least.

Harry Wilson has been having some trouble with discomfort in his thigh, but Marco Silva seems fairly confident that it shouldn't affect his ability to play against City.

Dan James suffered a hamstring strain in the game against Ciy.

Nick Pope was a late withdrawal against Everton, apparently suffering a groin strain.

Morgan Gibbs-White is doubtful again, after being subbed off in the second-half against Brighton; not clear if he has suffered a new injury, or a flare-up of the lower-back problem that was troubling him last week.

Lucas Paqueta is serving a one-match ban for getting himself sent off for double-dissent against Liverpool at the weekend. Moises Caicedo and Lewis Cook are beginning three-match bans for 'violent conduct' dismissals. And Marcos Senesi and David Brooks have to miss a match after receiving their 5th booking of the season - which could leave Bournemouth significantly weakened for the visit of Everton. Idrissa Gueye serves the second instalment of his three-match ban (for slapping his own player!) in that game.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Idrissa Gana Gueye begins a 3-match 'violent conduct' ban (though to be served within one week, thanks to the fixture logjam!) after being sent off for striking a teammate at Old Trafford on Monday night! Despite David Moyes's attempts to downplay the incident, you wonder if he'll be able to reintegrate into the team that easily after something like that. (Remarkably, this is an issue for nearly 18,000 FPL managers!)

Cristian Romero also misses this gameweek after becoming the latest player to reach the 5-bookings threshold. Several others are close to a 'totting up' suspension.

And I really wouldn't trust anyone in the Manchester United team at the moment, not even Mbeumo and Fernandes, not even against a supposedly weak opponent, because I have no confidence in Ruben Amorim's tactical direction. They were absolutely abysmal in their failure to get anything from a 10-man Everton on Monday night. If they continue like that - and they will, because the main problem is Amorim's insane tactical rigidity - they could struggle against anyone. Spurs players are also looking very unappealing just at the moment.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Morgan Gibbs-White and Morgan Rogers look to be coming into fine form, although the teams around them are still far less convincing - which might restrict their FPL value. Donyell Malen looks even better, whenever he's given a chance; but Emery still seems not to like him as a regular starter for some reason (although, after his outstanding performance and near-hattrick in Thursday night's Europa League victory over Young Boys, it's surely going to be very difficult to start him on the bench again against Wolves).

Callum Wilson, who nabbed a brace of goals against Bournemouth last weekend, is looking fit and confident again; if West Ham's performances continue to pick up, he could become a tempting budget forward option. Danny Welbeck, too, continues rolling back the years with fine performances week after week! And Igor Thiago continues to look in fine form (though I worry slightly whether that awful penalty miss last week may put a bit of a dent in his confidence), and is set to be the week's most transferred-in player (though that, unfortunately, is almost always a curse) - but mainly because he's up against Burnley this Saturday.

Of course, all The Sheep are piling in for Ebere Eze (well, 300,000 so far; he might overtake Thiago as the week's most popular transfer) after his hattrick. I find that utterly daft. He surely won't keep the freer central playmaker role for long, now that Odegaard's ready to return; and even if he did, Trossard and Saka are far more regular goal threats. And I can't imagine any other opponent at The Emirates this season being as bad as Spurs were last Sunday! Great player, but not good value in FPL.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

Sheep Picks (18)

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are dangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

For Gameweek 13 of the 2025/2026 season, I'm afraid I have to nominate Eberechi Eze as my 'Sheep Pick' of the Week. 

There's an easy way to identify a classic 'Sheep Pick': just select the 'Transfers in (round)' metric on the FPL 'Stats' page and see who's at the top of the list. More often than not, they're a 'Sheep Pick'! At the moment Eze's neck-and-neck with Brentford forward Igor Thiago to be in first place this week; but there are good reasons for favouring Thiago - he's an in-form goalscorer facing a bottom-of-the-table side (really, everyone should have had him in their squads several weeks ago!). There are really no good reasons at all for picking Eze. It's just a classic case of that typical 'Sheep' phenomenon known as chasing last week's points. Yes, Eze played a blinder against Spurs last Sunday, and was FPL's top returner of the week with 20 points. But is there any reason to suppose that he's likely to do that again this week? Or ever again?? No, I'm afraid there is not.

I absolutely love Eze as a player, I've had him in my FPL squad several times over the last few years, and I hope to see him playing for England at the World Cup this summer. Nothing personal: I just don't think he makes any sense as an FPL pick. Here's why....

1)  His style of play. I've always been sceptical about how compatible Eze would prove to be with Mikel Arteta's footballing philosophy, and despite his extremely impressive start with the club, those doubts remain for me. I fear he's too much the maverick, too much the impulsive improviser to fit in well with his boss's generally ultra-cautious approach to the game, an approach that emphasises minimizing 'risk', building up patiently, maximizing 'control' at all costs, sticking to very detailed and disciplined team tactics. rather than going off-script on a whim....

2)  His place within the Arsenal team.  Eze's only been prospering in recent weeks because he's been able to play a freer, more central role and take on the mantle of the team's primary playmaker - during Martin Odegaard's extended injury absence. Odegaard should be fit to return any day now, though. Certainly there is an argument that Eze and Trossard have been playing so well recently that neither of them can be dropped; and if so, there would be no way back into the team for Odegaard at the moment. But Odegaard has been the creative lynchpin of the team for the last four years, he understands Arteta's tactical demands better, he's forged a close rapport with their other attacking players on the right-hand side, Saka and Timber (and White), and he's the club captain; I can't see any way he won't slot straight back into his normal position as soon as he's fully fit again. Eze, I think, is the type of player who really needs to be given space by his club to fully express himself: not just physical space, an optimum area of the pitch for him to operate in, but the psychological/emotional space of knowing that he's trusted with the responsibility of being the team's principal creator (as he always was at Palace, at least in the last two seasons since Zaha left). If Odegaard returns to his playmaker role, Eze will almost inevitably be shunted out on to the left flank, where he's likely to be more isolated and have much less impact on games (especially as Arsenal tend to heavily favour the right side for their attacks, through that nexus of right full-back plus Odegaard plus Saka plus central striker). He'll still have his moments, I'm sure; but he won't be as continuously influential as he has become during the last handful of games.

3)  His minutes-risk. If relegated to a regular starting position on the left-side of the attacking trident (and it's about the only spot on the pitch that isn't absolutely nailed down by one of Arteta's favourites), there are other players who can play there. Martinelli has more pace, is more used to holding the width on the touchline (as Arteta usually requires from players on that flank), and has looked in great scoring form recently; Madueke can also play on that wing, also has more pace, and is perhaps better at taking on and beating a defender than either Eze or Martinelli (and, as an expensive new arrival at the club, he might reasonably demand a decent number of minutes on the pitch; and he's never likely to get more than token bench appearances on the right, as long as Saka's fit); and Trossard is more adaptable, liking to break into the box to operate as an outright forward sometimes, as well as being able to play out on the wing or in the half-space - and he's absolutely on fire with his goalscoring at the moment. There is a serious possibility that, brilliantly though he has been playing, Eze might soon be sitting out a lot of games.

4)  The next fixture. They're away at Stamford Bridge on Sunday: a London derby, against one of the best defences in the league (some distance behind Arsenal's own, of course; but still, not too shabby) and one of their few title-chasing rivals, and a team who seem to be now coming back into a bit of form. It's unlikely to be an easy game. For the bookies, it looks like it's too close to call: Arsenal are only very narrow favourites, and a low-scoring draw actually seems to be the most fancied result. OK, after that, most of Arsenal's fixture-run through December looks fairly inviting. But why be in such a mad rush to bring him in this week?? Wait and see what happens with Odegaard.

5)  Competition within the club quota.  As I noted a few weeks back, Arsenal's defence is so vastly superior to everyone else's so far this season that there is now an almost overwhelming case for taking two of their defenders (but not three of them; and not their goalkeeper!). Meanwhile, Declan Rice looks likely to be at least the most consistent - and perhaps even the overall No. 1 - points producer among the cheaper midfielders, because of the number of assists he's likely to pick up from corners and free-kicks, as well as defensive points and clean-sheet points and the occasional goal. Saka, meanwhile, is pure class, and always dangerous: since his return from injury, he's been cracking off at least a few firm shots on target in every game, and is surely overdue to have one or two of them go in; he's also a likely provider of assists from corners and free-kicks, often hoovers up 'defensive contributions' too, and now he's on penalties for them as well; if he stays fit, he will almost certainly be Arsenal's top FPL points-scorer of the season. But Trossard (who I tipped as an under-appreciated gem just the other week) is actually the Arsenal player currently in the most outstanding form: he really looks like he could score in every game at the moment, and is absolutely overflowing with confidence, after registering attacking returns in 4  of his last 5 starts. Even if you were allowed 5 picks from Arsenal, Eze would barely be in the frame; when you're capped at 3,.... he should be nowhere near consideration.

6)  His optimum points potential.  Prior to last weekend's massive haul against Spurs, he'd only been averaging 6.5 points-per-game across a run of 6 straight starts. That's good, but not earth-shattering. And I think it's probably near - if not slightly above - the limit of what you'll be able to expect from him on a consistent basis, even over a peak run of returns; over a longer spell, he's not likely to get anything like that much... even if he were to retain the central playmaker role (which seems very unlikely from here on); playing off the left flank, his points prospects are likely to be significantly diminished.

7)  A one-off performance against Spurs. Arsenal and Eze were outstanding in the North London derby last week; but Spurs were catastrophically bad in every single aspect of their performance. It is hard to imagine any other opponent defending that poorly against Arsenal for the rest of the season; no-one else is going to be giving a player like Eze so many of the same sort of chances in one game. Arteta's 'masterplan' for this one was in fact stunningly simple: he just concentrated players on the right flank, regularly moving Merino and/or Zubimendi out wide along with Saka and Timber, to try to lure the Spurs dual pivots out of position. And it worked every single time: Betancur and Palhinha would both be drawn out of the centre to try to stifle the dangerous overload on the flank; but they weren't able to stop the Arsenal wide players from threading balls inside to Eze, who'd been left all on his own, just outside the middle of the penalty area. Being caught out by this 'cunning plan' once or twice would be forgivable; but Spurs somehow never adapted to it all game: they didn't realise that at least one of the pivots would always have to try to stay a bit more central, they didn't think it might be a good idea to maybe assign someone to man-mark Eze, it didn't even occur to the centre-backs that they were going to have to be more alert to rush out quickly to try to block shooting efforts from around the edge of the box. Again and again and again, Eze was invited to have a crack from 16 or 18 or 20 yards out; and he's very good from that distance - he was in hog-heaven! But this was a really freakish occurence, a truly stupendous piece of tactical naivety from the visiting side. Eze has played better games without coming close to scoring. Especially with Arsenal, with the mismatch in style and temperament between him and Arteta, I'm afraid he's just not the kind of player who's ever going to post Salah or Palmer goalscoring numbers.

There are ways I could prove to be 'wrong' on all of this. And I kind of hope I am. I'd love to see Eze enjoy a little hot streak - not least because it will bolster his chances of securing a start with England. He is an excellent player; and his confidence is through-the-roof after that hattrick.

Maybe Arteta will let him continue as the main creator, and leave his captain to stew on the bench. Maybe, even if nominally moved back out on to the left, he'll be able to come inside more, mostly play much narrower, maybe even rotate a little with Odegaard between the left-half, right-half, and central spaces - as the formation perhaps becomes less of a 4-3-3 and more of a 4-2-3-1. Maybe, maybe.... they might even be able to forge a new role for Eze, turning him into a kind of 'false 9': he might possibly get more goals like that, and it would allow both Odegaard and Trossard to continue playing in their best positions - but I fear it would be too radical a tactical departure for the conservative Arteta; and there's not much time to experiment with such an option before Gyokeres is expected back, anyway.

I think there's quite a good chance that, so long as he's still starting, Eze could pick up u few more goals over the coming month - while he's still riding the wave of elation from that massive game on Sunday. But I reckon that's all it would ever be: a short streak - that might look like a good return across 5 or 6 games, and would be enough to reassure 'The Sheep' that their selection had paid off; but Trossard or Saka or Rice might do even better, probably won't be much worse even in the short-term; and across any slightly longer run, say 7 or 8 games and upwards, one or all of those three will almost certainly do much better. And if Eze gets dropped or his points otherwise suddenly dry up and you want to ship him out again, he's cost you 2 transfers in a fairly short space of time; that undercuts his value to an FPL team as well (Saka or Rice look like they could be season-long holds).

Many FPL managers seem to find this hard to grasp, but.... even if Eze does return some good points in the next few weeks, that still doesn't necessarily make him a good pick. You have to consider a player's medium- and long-term prospects, not just the next few games; and you have to evaluate those prospects in the context of issues like club quota, budget, possible alternative uses of the transfers, etc.

But I don't think he will produce all that well, unfortunately: certainly not at anything like the rate he just managed on Sunday!

A 'mini Free Hit' as well as a 'mini Wildcard'??

 

FPL's unnecessarily generous gift of extra Free Transfers in Gameweek 16 (another pointless innovation this year, supposedly meant to ease the possible impact of departures for the African Cup of Nations - although that has never been a big issue in FPL; and this year, it's a complete non-event, as no-one with any sense currently has any African players other than Bryan Mbeumo) is effectively a mini-Wildcard, enabling us to undertake a modest squad rebuild in mid-December.

However, it must be noted that this is not a gift of a fixed number of transfers (5), but only a top-up - to a maximum number of 5 Free Transfers. Hence, in order to take full advantage of it, you have to use up any existing Free Transfers you have in Gameweek 15 (e.g., if you still have 2 saved transfers going into GW16, you only get 3 new ones, to bring you up to the total of 5 all told).

I quite like the idea of trying to save up some transfers over the next few gameweeks (though that might not be possible, as injuries tend to come thick and fast at this time of year!), so that you can play 2 or 3 together in Gameweek 15 - perhaps even the full quota of 5 FTs in one fell swoop, if you're already carrying forward some saved ones. 

Since you'll have the opportunity for a similar big shake-up in the very next gameweek, with the AFCON Christmas present, this could be a one-week-only revision of your team - in effect, an extra Free Hit! 

But as this would only be a 'virtual' Free Hit, not the actual chip, you would be able to to play another chip that week. And as I said the other week, Gameweek 15 is a moderately promising prospect for a Bench Boost play, with a number of unbalanced fixtures you might want to exploit. (Although it's a bit of a risky bet for that chip, as there may be a high risk of fatigue, injury absences, or sudden rest rotations in what is the third gameweek scheduled within 7 days.)  Even for just the starting eleven, though, it's an unusual group of fixtures where you could benefit from putting out a one-off custom team. And 'optimizing' for this gameweek opportunity with saved transfers would enable you to hang on to your actual Free Hit (well, assuming you've still got it...) as insurance against a possible game-postponement emergency later in the month.  Something to think about.

A little bit of Zen (70)

A biplane over Edinburgh, 1920

"Monotony is the awful reward of the careful."

A. G. Buckham

Mr Buckham is somewhat obscure to the Internet; at least, not eminent enough to have yet earned his own Wikipedia page. However, I very much hope it's the Alfred George Buckham I provided the link for above: a British naval aviator during World War I, and an impressive black-and-white photographer of planes and landscapes. That stunning aerial photograph high above the centre of Edinburgh in 1920 is one of his. There is a lot more worth checking out on the linked website devoted to him.

While rashness, over-hastiness, and silly gambling are never good things,.... neither are timorousness and excess of caution - in FPL, or more generally in Life.

The (likely) story of my season so far

Of course, my season was cut short this year in Gameweek 2, when I was bizarrely locked out of my account by FPL's perpetually useless website - and I was so dismayed and flabbergasted that I couldn't be bothered to set up another new one (this is the third or fourth time this has happened to me in the last half-dozen years).

However, as we're now nearing the third-of-the-way-through-the-season mark, I thought I'd indulge in a bit of playing along in imagination, and review how I think my season probably would be panning out so far.

I went for Sels and Petrovic as a promising rotation pair of keepers at the start of the season. Sels disappointed amid Forest's dip in form around Nuno's departure and replacement with Ange Postecoglou: clean sheets disappeared, and somehow he wasn't even registering that many saves. Fortunately, the Bournemouth defence was holding up much better than many had feared, and Petrovic would soon have displaced him as 'first choice', though he's possiby not quite strong enough to be my regular starter; I think I would have swapped Sels out for Henderson as soon as I could. (Though, by GW4 or 5, Sunderland's Robin Roefs was starting to look a very appealing option.)  Henderson and Petrovic actually enjoyed a pretty good rotaion around their tougher fixtures for a while.

I usually counsel against taking 'too many chances' in the initial squad - and then I don't take my own advice. And Milos Kerkez counted as a bit risky, because he was a new arrival at Anfield and would almost certainly take some time to properly bed in. And he was not free of some risk of rotation with the veteran incumbent in his position, Andy Robertson; although his start, mercifully, proved to be reliable, he was yanked off very early in a few games. And with Liverpool not keeping any clean sheets, despite their winning start to the season, I think I would have soon ditched him - probably for an Everton or Bournemouth defender. Ben White was also perhaps somewhat risky after he'd missed so much of last season with injury, and Timber, Calafiori, and Lewis-Skelly had all impressed in his absence. But I did trust that he'd established first dibs on the right-back slot - and so perhaps it might have been, had he not immediately picked up an injury again. Rank bad luck there! But I would have moved for Calafiori and Senesi as replacements pretty promptly - probably even at the cost of a hit.

I would be well contentt, though, with my other two main picks, Munoz and Van de Ven, at least at first; and with Burnley's attacking left-back Quilindschy Hartman as my cheap bench-filler for the start of the season (though after a month or so it had begun to look as if Sunderland rather than Burnley were the most formidable of the promoted sides and their options might provide more consisttent 'defensive contributions', and even a good number of clean sheets throughout the season). However, I fear I would have lost patience with Van de Ven and his faltering Spurs - before he came up with that improbable brace of goals against Everton for a 23-point haul in Gameweek 9! Van de Ven, I think, would have been sacrificed for early 'defensive points' monster Tarkowski in GW6 or 7.

I also fret that I would have been likely to stick with Calafiori and/or Timber from the Arsenal defence -on the not unreasonable basis that, once established as nailed starters (which hadn't seemed certain, or even likely at the start of the season), they would be slightly more likely than Gabriel to produce the occasional attacking contribution. However, Gabriel, of course, then produced a freak run of form, not only benefitting from a long sequence of clean sheets (a bonanza shared by all his fellow Arsenal defenders), but also racking up improbable numbers of 'defensive contributions' a few times, and picking up a goal and a couple of assists - for a whopping 55-point return from Gameweeks 6-10. It would have hurt to miss out on that;... but I think I would have done. Arsenal's defence became so dominant during that period that it would have been very tempting to bring in Gabriel - or the cheaper Timber - for Tarkowski or Senesi. (Heck, some people were even piling in for 3 Arsenal defenders!!!)

In the midfield, I bet on Palmer rather than Salah (too expensive this year, and obviously going to fall far short of last year's returns - although still likely to be worth considering if he hit any hot streaks; though that signally failed to happen in the opening three months), decided to go without Saka for now (because of Arsenal's tricky early-season fixtures; I got a bit lucky on that risky gamble when he picked up an early injury), and flipped a coin between Cunha and Mbeumo (again, arguably, a risky bet, given their newness to the team, and United's long history of being able to convert gold into dross). Of course, the coin came down on Cunha - who was the one who started more brightly, and then succumbed to an early injury. Palmer too had an injury problem straight away; although it wasn't immediately apparent, inhibiting his performance in the first game, forcing him to withdraw early in the second, missing the next two, and then dropping out quickly again in the fifth: cruel and unusual punishment indeed - tempting you to think that it was no big deal, would only keep him out for a game or two, he might be worth hanging on to.... I'd like to think that I would have offloaded him promptly; but more probably I think I would have kept him until GW5, by which time a lot of damage would have been done.  Cunha, at least, was an easy swap for Mbeumo, who soon started coming good. And Palmer's indisposition would have created an easy opportunity for me to bring in the initially overlooked Semenyo, although I might only have got a couple of decent returns out of him, as his opening hot streak would fizzle after GW7; fortunately, that was an ideal time to swap him out for the returning Saka or the suddenly in-form Trossard.

My mid-budget selections of Ndiaye, Enzo Fernandez, and Mo Kudus looked good at first - although the latter kept showing a lot of promise without delivering very much, and would not, I think, have survived in my squad for more than a few weeks. However, none of the 'usual suspects' among the game's goalscorers and creatives consistently came good in the first few months of the season, and we were left hopefully casting the dice on novelty options. For a long time, the top of the midfielder charts were dominated by fairly unexpected players like promoted Burnley's Jaidon Anthony,.... and a bunch of central midfielders who were doing quite well off the new 'defensive points' and happened to have picked up a random goal or two. (Gravenberch, Caicedo, Zubimendi, Palhinha, Tonali). Kudus I think I would have swapped out for Eze, in his last couple of games for Palace; and then probably swapped him for Anthony, or perhaps Forest's promising new winger, Dan Ndoye. I feel sure I would also have been tempted to go in early for Phil Foden on his eventual return from injury - because of the shortage of other compelling options; though I fear I would probably not have picked him in anticipation of his impressive comeback game against Manchester United, but only for his subsequent run of blanks!!

The only player in that position category who was pretty regularly registering points early on was Antoine Semenyo. I have historically been quite a fan of his; but I grew gadually more sceptical last season - he seems to lack consistency, his hot spells are never sustained for all that long; and I think he suffers a bit from competition with so many other goalscoring creatives in the Bournemouth squad (Kluivert being out of action for much longer than originally anticipated was possibly a major factor in his early success this year). I'd like to think I would have brought him in fairly early, but..... I suspect I might have hesitated until his returns were about to start drying up! And at that time, I would have been tempted by the return of Bukayo Saka - although he was a little bit slow out of the blocks. Trossard was actually the better Arsenal midfielder to be on, from about GW7 onwards; although Rice probably had the better - or at least steadier - long-term prospects. It would have been a tough choice around then between a second Arsenal defender (for me, Gabriel; and then Timber, when he got injured) and a second midfielder (Trossard during his scoring streak).

I would have resisted Grealish, despite his red-hot start - fancying that he was ultimately only an assists man, whereas Ndiaye might offer goals and assists (and I didn't want to be doubled up on one club in one position). Bruno Fernandes, initially a pretty popular selection, I've found eminently avoidable in recent years: only returns well in short streaks - and that seemed even more likely to be the case this season, as Amorim was expected to be playing him in a deeper midfield role. (To be fair, he did show a lot of promise early on, often abandoning his 'pivot' brief to forage forward, and basically trying to carry his struggling team single-handed. But his returns were very up-and-down, with strong Gameweeks 3 and 5 being interspersed with far more disappointing returns, missed penalties, etc....)  I also refused to 'drink the Kool-Aid' on Tijjani Reijnders (probably now destined to be remembered most for the inevitably popular FPL team name 'Breakfast at Tijjani's'!!). He was undoubtedly tempting value-for-money, but City's early-season form didn't overly impress me, and, although he did at least prove to have a regular start nailed down (which I'd initially doubted), I feared that he was usually being played too deep to be a really regular attacking threat, and expected his season goal-haul would be much closer to the 4 that he got in his first season with AC Milan than the 15 he claimed in his second.  [I may yet be proved wrong on this. There is a lot to like about him, and I think he's been one of the best of the league's new arrivals so far. And 4 or 5 goals for a midfielder isn't at all bad; especially for one who only cost 5.5 million at the start of the year But I have a hunch he won't even reach that many. And he's not picking up much on the 'defensive contributions' either....]

The biggest of my opening gambles that failed to pay off was trying to do without Haaland - when he started with a string of big hauls, just as he did last year. I knew that might backfire on me. And with little to spend the money on in midfield, I should have been able to quickly back-track - at least once Palmer and Cunha were ruled out, perhaps by GW2 or 3 (I would surely have had to eat a 'hit' to get it done promptly...). I acknowledged pretty early on that he was, for the time being, a rare must-have this season. However, I don't think I would have got great captaincy returns off him, as I would have often been tempted by rival options, especially in midifeld (and I didn't fancy his chances of a big haul against Bournemouth or Everton - or even Burnley, really) - and yet, again and again, these perfectly rational alternate picks failed to come through, while Haaland knocked in braces.... even when City were playing quite poorly, even against opponents with reasonable defences.

I'd started off with Joao Pedro, Ekitike (another risky punt on a newly-arrived player, but one that paid off for once - though we knew he was only going to be a short-term investment, as likely to be sidelined or dropped into a regular rotation once the Isak deal materialised) and Strand Larsen (yet another early injury victim!!).  That was OK for a little while; but all three of them would probably have to be replaced fairly soon (not ideal, but usually unavoidable at the start of the season!!). I would have had Richarlison for a while as well, after his promising start. But I was quick to recognise the form of Thiago and Woltemade, and would have had them alongside Haaland fairly early on that's still looking a pretty strong trident a third of the way into the season.

At least I avoided the error of piling in prematurely for Isak or Eze - as so many people did, having rashly assumed that they would immediately start for their their new clubs, and immediately be at their best, and immediately have a huge impact. It was obviously going to take Isak a few weeks at least, given his poor conditioning after skipping training with Newcastle for a couple of months; and with Eze, I really worried that it might never happen - as Arsenal's stye of play just wouldn't suit him. He and the team are adapting to each other better than I'd feared, and he made a lively start at his new club, beneftiting enormously from the extended injury absence of Odegaard, which has enabled him to shift into a freer central playmaker role (not one he's likely to keep for long, presumably); but still, he's not the regular game-changer he was at Palace. However, FPL managers who punted on him may feel that their faith was repaid by that one enormous haul he just bagged against Spurs - another one that it was painful to miss out on; but I can't see him repeating a return like that (Spurs were epically bad in that one! Surely no other opponent will give him that much space around the edge of the box?!).

Yes, I'd missed out on the two biggest returners, Semenyo and Haaland, in the early weeks (though would have repented on at least one, possibly both, in time to catch a good bit of that run of returns from them), and was hit by 4 injuries to key picks almost immediately (not the worst run of injuries I've ever suffered, but.... pretty devastating!).  I fear I would also have done pretty poorly with my captaincy, regularly favouring guys who played great games but somehow only came away with 4, 6, 8 poins (before doubling them) to show for them; I would have had a few better returns from Haaland and Mbeumo, and I fancied Munoz for Gameweek 12, who came through very handsomely (but got booked, and missed out on defensive points by one 'contribution' - vexing!).

So,  a really, really bad start for me, this year (possibly my worst ever!): I was down around the 3 million mark in Gameweek 1, and must have slipped even lower - probably well outside the top half - with a couple more probably very bad weeks early on. In general, though, fairly steady upward progress was likely thereafter - although I might have suffered heavily for passing on Gabriel during his exceptionally hot run. 

I think I'd have just about made 700 points by now; not sure where that would put me in the global ranking - just about in the top 1,000,000 I should think; or getting pretty close, anyway. And I would have held off using any of my Bonus Chips yet, so would still be trailing the 'early leaders' quite badly - but hoping o make up more ground soon if those chip plays work out nicely for me. That's actually starting to feel pretty 'successful' - after my atrocious start! And it's been a particularly tough season - and a weirdly low-scoring season all-around - .so far for everyone; most of the people I keep tabs on as consistently smart and usually quite high-performing FPL managers are still outside the top 2 or 3 million at the moment! It's nice to be inside the top 200 or 300k for most of the season; but it doesn't always happen. Just got to roll with the punches!

The end-of-year MADNESS is here!

 Wynter is icumen in,

Lhude sing, 'Buger!'

Yep, it's that time of year again. The weather in England has turned shitty: savagely cold, relentlessly wet. And the fixture schedule - squeezed on one side by an expanded programme of European competition, World Cup qualifiers, and the minor domestic annoyance of the early League Cup ties, and on the other by the magnanimous but probably misguided desire to shoehorn a 'mini-break' of sorts into the League programme in early January - is entering the inevitable December logjam. 

Most of the other major European football leagues enjoy a full 3 or 4 weeks off from just before Christmas - when the weather is at its worst, and players want to be able to spend a little time off with their families. In England, we only ge a scant 9 days in January, and only by virtue of playing twice in a week straight after the New Year. Starting this weekend, there are 9 Premer League gameweeks in just under 6 calendar weeks.

The rate of injuries, unfortunately, will inevitably soar. Performance levels will plummet. 'Rest rotations' will abound. Most teams experience a bit of a wobble in their results; some regularly seem to crash during this period (ahem, Arsenal - let's hope they're over that now!).

Now, more than ever, you will need your bench. All through December (and possibly on through much of January and February too if we have a really bad winter) you'll be very, very lucky if you don't need at least 1 auto-sub - sometimes, perhaps, 2 or 3 - to replace last-minute omissions in almost every gameweek. And even if all your regular starters are going to play, there will probably be occasions when you wish they weren't, because you can tell they're getting knackered and are not likely to have a good game next time out; you want to have the flexibility to be able to rotate players in and out of your starting lineup. 

If you don't have a full bench now, and a strong bench, you're likely to suffer through a brutal winter.

Feeling THANKFUL?

I've long had a peculiar fondness for the American holiday of Thanksgiving - largely because I've so often been able to celebrate the occasion with American and/or Americophile friends, and a few times even in America.

This year, alas, I shall probably be making do with a turkey sandwich on my own. And maybe I'll make myself a pumpkin cheesecake for a sweet treat tonight...

Anyhow, a Happy Thanksgiving to any American readers who may stumble upon this obscure corner of the Internet (probably looking for content about the Fantasy version of their own gridiron game - the one that rather conspicuously involves very little playing of the ball with the foot....).

[And apologies to any Canadian readers who feel overlooked. But you're probably used to it! I am well aware that your version of this holiday falls much earlier, on the 2nd Monday in October, as I lived in Toronto for a year-and-a-half in my youth. However, that holiday never embedded itself in my psyche, even when I was a resident in the country. You Canucks are not so, um, culturally assertive as your American cousins, I suppose.]

For some reason, Linus's pitiful obsession with The Great Pumpkin - an autumn-themed deity of his own invention - was always one of the things that most resonated with me in the classic 'Peanuts' cartoons. This superstition of his was actually associated with Halloween, but it is Thanksgiving, with its own emphasis on pumpkins, that always recalls it to my mind. 

Linus, of course, was convinced that The Great Pumpkin would appear only to him, if he created a pumpkin-patch that was worthy of the demi-god's attendance; and he'd wait patiently every year, full of expectation - but it never happened.  In much the same way, we FPL managers convince ourselves that, if we only take enough care over our selections, one day The Great Gameweek or The Great Chip Play will manifest itself only for us.  Like I said, pitiful.

Again with the metaphors, Mr Wade?

To pod, or not to pod....?

I have a little bit of a 'following' (dread word!) on some of the FPL forums where I comment most frequently, a small coterie of discerning readers who actually appreciate and enjoy my observerations (on football and on life, as much as FPL). And a few of these have even exhorted me once or twice - perhaps only in jest?! - to launch a podcast,...  to provide a more 'readily digestible' version of some of the more useful content from this blog (where I know that, in pursuit of clarity and thoroughness, I usually end up being too long-winded for modern tastes). I have been considering it.

In fact, I had thought that last week would be an especially opportune moment to drop an initial episode: I should have had a bit more time to prepare material over the international break; and it was looking like a particularly intriguing gameweek, with a wide open field of possibiliies for the captaincy (I had quipped online that there were probably "at least 20 more promising options than Haaland this week"; and indeed, 17 players did better than the 8 or 9 points which I think would have been the Viking's best reasonable expectation for the gameweek, and another 20-odd did about the same; but since he actually blanked, 99 players outscored him!!); and there are many intriguing problems approaching (the midwinter fixture logjam, the extra transfers being doled out for AFCON, many managers still having all or most of this year's extra chips to get rid of, and so on....). Gosh, yes - it was an unusually rich week for FPL discussion.

Ultimately, perhaps, there was rather too dauntingly much in the way of possible topics to choose from. And I didn't have much free time (friends visiting, job opportunities to chase, another big writing assignment to take care of....). Heck, I haven't even got very far with the first item on my Preparatory Checklist, which was shopping around to find a good, FREE online hosting platform. Then I realised there's an awful lot of background noise in my house (I've learned to tune most of it out, after so long of living in Asia; but I'm right by an intermittently busy road, there's a house under construction just a stone's-throw away, and my neighbours' kids are often quite exuberant... It's A LOT.); so, I probably can't muddle by with the onboard microphone on my decrepit old laptop, I'd have to shell out for a semi-decent mike & headphones set.

So, I think, if this ever happens, it won't be until after the holidays - sometime in January, at the very earliest. And quite possibly never.

And I'm really not sure I want to do it anyway. I am an intensely private person, and I don't like to reveal anything much of my true self online (the name I use here is only an alias; the many names that I use online are all aliases, always). I certainly wouldn't ever want anyone to know what I look like; and knowing what my voice sounds like is only a very small step away from that - to me, it feels similarly invasive, similarly compromising. And I am avowedly anti-narcissistic: I have absolutely no expectation that anyone should enjoy the sound of my voice, nor any desire for people to pay attention to me. (I do this blog and the forum comments primarily because I really enjoy writing [I've often made my living from it], not with any ambitions of becoming a large-scale 'influencer'.) 

I am intrigued by the challenge of trying to get to grips with a new medium of communication. But I confess that it is one about which I know next-to-nothing - which will doubtless be something of a handicap to my early endeavours!

Any advice, encouragement, or discouragement on this plan would be gratefully received! 

Free Hit opportunity?

 

I mentioned yesterday that there were some tempting opportunities to play the first Free Hit coming up over the final month-and-a-bit of this first half of the season (although you might want to 'keep your powder dry' and just hang on to it until GW19 in case of a game-postponement emergency caused by bad weather...).

The problem is that gameweeks that look promising for one bonus chip usually look good for the others too (in fact, I already covered why the sets of fixtures in some of the upcoming gameweeks are attractive for either a Bench Boost or Free Hit play).

But probably the most appealing option of the lot for a Free Hit would be the imminent Gameweek 13. There are a number of teams we wouldn't normally fancy who are this week playing what look like much weaker sides: Villa playing Wolves, Brentford playing Burnley, City playing Leeds, Liverpool playing West Ham, and Spurs playing Fulham (although the last two are perhaps rather questionable, given Liverpool's and Spurs's recent form!). Moreover, you might want to avoid having players from the top-of-the-table clash between Chelsea and Arsenal, which might end up being close and cagey, and is certainly quite hard to call. Crystal Palace v Manchester United, Everton v Newcastle, Nottingham Forest v Brighton, and Sunderland v Bournemouth are also quite tough to predict the outcomes of, and so perhaps better avoided if you have the chance to do so. That's what a prime Free Hit set of fixtures typically looks like.

Unfortunately,.... Erling Haaland against Leeds has to be the most attractive prospect in the first-half of the season for playing the Triple Captain chip. And so, that is likely to take priority this week for the majority of FPL managers. 

Nobody but Haaland is scoring points almost every week, and often producing big points - so, there really is no other sensible option for this chip. (Eze isn't likely to repeat this Sunday's performance again this season, if only because no other opponent is likely to play as badly against Arsenal as Spurs did here!) And the only alternative remaining time to play the chip on Haaland is Gameweek 17, when he's turning out against against West Ham at The Etihad. West Ham, though, are starting to show signs of improvement under Nuno, and are now probably a rather stronger opponent than Leeds (they weren't just a few weeks ago, but things change). Also, that's rather a long time to wait: the lanky Viking might have picked up an injury or lost form by then!

So,... if you still have all three of the bonus chips in hand, it looks like Gameweek 13 is the best bet for the Triple Captain; and you may then be left flipping a coin to decide how to split the Free Hit and Bench Boost between Gameweeks 15 and 17 - or maybe GW16 for the BB, when the fixtures are perhaps not quite so attractive, but you will have the advantage of an 'optimum set-up' thanks to the '5 Free Transfers' early Christmas present we're getting for the start of AFCON. [In fact, given that GW15 is the third set of league fixtures inside a week, there's a high risk you might be hit by a slew of injuries, or likely rest rotations, or players whose form is impaired by fatigue. If you know about those problems in advance, and they are numerous, you might be able to dodge around them with the Free Hit. But such issues might ambush you only after the gameweek deadline, which probably makes it rather too risky a week to play the Bench Boost in: the absolute essential for a good return from that chip is 15 fit players all starting for you. So, for me, it's looking like GW16 or 17 would be optimal for the BB;... and Free Hit any time you feel like it,... or feel that you need it!] 

BEST OF LUCK!!!