Sheep Picks (16)

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are dangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

Yep,  in Gameweek 10, I find myself going for another goalkeeper (after nominating Nick Pope as a weird pick in this series a couple of weeks back). And many of the arguments against Pope are the same as those against Raya, or indeed against any keeper from a top club; and I already went through them in that earlier post.

Raya was already by far the most popular goalkeeper pick this year (well, apart from Martin Dubravka - who, as the only 4-million-pound starter in the position, is almost everyone's favourite back-up option); but he's continuing to gain new owners - with another 150,000 coming on board for him this week. And that really makes no sense.

1)  Raya might be 'the best goalkeeper in the league' - but that doesn't necessarily mean anything for FPL.  Great players don't always earn huge FPL points. (I think Pickford and Alisson still have a little bit of an edge over him in their consistency and all-around impact. But he's certainly 'in the conversation' as one of the best few, an absolutely outstanding keeper - who might help Arsenal to the title this year. But thoughts like that can lead to sentimentality and clouded thinking: it doesn't matter how 'good' he is, or how well his team is doing, unless that translates directly into Fantasy points - and with goalkeepers, it very rarely does.)

2)  Raya is not going to be the year's leading FPL goalkeeper. I am usually very wary of making hard-and-fast predictions; but I feel fairly confident in making that one. Despite an exceptionally strong run of results so far, and even a good number of saves in the early games (and that's another issue: we have almost certainly seen 'peak Raya' already, and his average returns-per-game will decline from here on), he's trailing Robin Roefs, tied with Nick Pope, not far ahead of Petrovic and Vicario, and being rapidly caught up in recent weeks by Donnarumma, Lammens, and Emi Martinez. Over the season, you'd probably fancy Pickford and Henderson to overhaul him as well, and possibly a few others too - the likes of Kelleher, Sanchez, Sels, and Leno.

3)  Goalkeepers tend not to give you much of a 'differential advantage' over their position rivals. Even if Raya does end up as the top-returning FPL keeper this season, it probably won't be by very much of a margin over his closest competitors. You'll almost certainly get more of a points advantage by taking a second (and maybe, some people currently feel, even a third...!) Arsenal defender rather than the goalkeeper.

4)  It is 'saves' points, and the Bonus Points that come with them (keepers rarely get in Bonus Point contention for a clean sheet alone), that differentiate goalkeeper performance - rather than the number of clean sheets. Despite an unusually strong start to the season in this respect, with 7 saves credited to him in the opening game at Old Trafford, Raya has only managed 9 more saves in the 8 games since, and has crashed out of the Top 12 for the number of saves; Roefs, Dubravka and Sels have recorded twice as many. His Bonus Points total is likewise a very modest 3 points so far; almost all the top keepers have now managed 2 or 3 Bonus Points - but Robin Roefs is way out in front with 6 points. Arsenal are so good defensively at the moment that David Raya doesn't look likely to earn points for anything except clean sheets - and that is not enough to make him a top FPL keeper pick.

5)  If Arsenal rack up a huge clean sheet total, that will be more of an advantage to their defenders. The remarkable record of 24 clean sheets set in Mourinho's first season at Chelsea has stood for 20 years now, and will probably stand for a lot longer. In recent years, it has been rare for many teams even to approach achieving 1 clean sheet in every 2 games across the season: 12-15 clean sheets is usually a very good total for the top defensive sides. However, Arsenal are currently at least looking favourites to be well out in front for keeping the most clean sheets this year, and they might have a chance of getting above 20 for the season. If they manage that, all of their defenders might have as many as 5 or 6 more clean sheets than any other defender. (Of course, Raya will also have that advantage over every other keeper, and that's presumably what all his FPL owners are getting so excited about. But for him, it is of less significance, because he is likely to do so poorly from saves and Bonus Points.)  All of their defenders are likely to pick up more Bonus Points than Raya (because they rack up consistent BPS credit from being on the ball so much during build-up play), they will sometimes get an extra lift from the new 'defensive points' (in games like the Manchester United one, where they find themselves under the cosh for long periods; it probably won't happen to them all that often, but, when it does, it will still give their defenders more extra points than Raya is likely to be earning from saves), and all of the Arsenal defenders currently look quite likely to chip in a good number of attacking contributions too - because one or both of the full-backs frequenly push forward to support the attacking line, and the centre-backs are the main target men at their highly productive set-piece routines. Any Arsenal defender who starts regularly looks likely at the moment to significantly outscore almost any other defender at any other club; Raya does not look likely to outscore all the other goalkeepers.

6)  With a top side, you must weigh the 'opportunity cost' of going without one of their outfield players. This is the ultimate reason why it is almost never a good idea to take a keeper from one of the title-chasing clubs. In addition to the superior claims of any/all of Arsenal's defenders over Raya, you also have to consider whether you might want Bukayo Saka at some point in the season (almost certainly!). or Declan Rice, who is looking like he might be the most consistent provider in the 'cheap 5th seat' midfield slot. And they have a number of other players who might be worth considering if they hit a patch of hot form: Trossard, Martinelli, Eze, Havertz, Gyokeres. You might indeed want to keep one of your 'Arsenal slots' open for such an eventuality, limit yourself to taking just 2 of their players most of the time, so that you can always easily bring in a third pick whenever you choose to. That flexibility, in itself, could be worth going without Raya.

7)  There's also a price/value-for-money issue with Raya, or any top-price keeper. There's not only an 'opportunity cost' measured against other players you might pick instead within the Arsenal club quota, there's one with other players you might pick within the overall budget allocation. You almost always (no - always) get a bigger points-lift per 100k spent from the outfield positions, especially goalscoring midfielders. Therefore, it never makes sense to go for one of the premium-priced goalkeepers when any of the alternatives half a million or a million cheaper have a decent chance of at least getting somewhere near their points total.

I really do not have anything against David Raya. I think he's an absolutely superb keeper (he was a mainstay of my squad when he started out with Brentford a few years ago). And he is assuredly odds-on to win the Golden Glove this year. But for FPL, he really is quite a terrible choice of goalkeeper.

It might not be readily apparent just how bad a pick he is; particularly if he manages to stay up near the top of the goalkeeper points rankings. But however well he may do, it is absolutely certain that other Arsenal defenders - and perhaps also Saka or another of their attacking players, when in peak form - would have done even better for you if you'd chosen them instead.

A little bit of Zen (66)

 

"Three minutes' thought would suffice to find this out; but thought is irksome and three minutes is a long time."

A.E. Housman

Alas, the great majority of FPL managers often seem to be very unreflective, unwilling to really analyse - or reconsider - any of their decisions. Three minutes is all it might take to save themselves a world of pain....

Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 9

 

The Friday evening kick-off between Leeds and West Ham revealed rather cruelly that Nuno has still not been able to fix the Hammers' numerous defensive shortcomings: at set-pieces, their defence is pretty much non-existent. From the brief highlights I've been able to find, it looks as though Leeds completely dominated the game, but lacked the quality to fashion many really good chances. Yet another goal for a defender - Joe Rodon, one of the most popular budget picks with almost 6% ownership - gets us off with a solid kick to the 'Luck-o-Meter' needle.... although at least there doesn't seem to have been anything amiss with the refereeing at Elland Road this time.

Sunderland switched to a back-three to great effect away at Stamford Bridge, comfortably smothering, out-competing a very unimaginative Chelsea. Even after they conceded an early goal - Garnacho somehow slotting the ball through Roefs's legs on a breakaway after just 3 minutes - they retained their composure, and despite limited possession, generally looked on top in the game and created almost all of the best chances; they were well worth the win claimed with yet another last-gasp goal. Although Chelsea haven't looked terribly convincing recently, this must count as a bit of an 'upset' result: Sunderland - incredibly - moved up to 2nd place, at least for a while with this win; Chelsea, with that one goal given up in the final minutes, slumped from 4th to 7th, and are in grave danger of tumbling out of the Top 10 after Sunday's games. And some will feel peeved (well, only 42,000, apparently!) that goalscorer Garnacho was withdrawn after only 56 minutes. (Maresca appears to want to give minutes to both Garnacho and Estevao; it's unfortunate that both of them look a bit of a liability defensively, and that rotating them like this requires Neto to switch flanks mid-game. Once Palmer's back, I imagine he will be mostly playing off the right side, and both these youngsters will get very limited game-time.)

Newcastle looked comfortably the better side at home against Fulham, but the visitors battled valiantly and were able to make the result closer than it perhaps should have been. Woltemade and Murphy both crashed efforts against a post in the first-half; if either of those had gone in, the game would probably have gone a lot more smoothly for them. Newcastle needed a goal in the final seconds of regulation time from Bruno Guimaraes to clinch the win - although they will feel they earned it with their determined pressure during the last 20 minutes or so.

Last week's late-goal hero Harry Maguire had apparently picked up an injury during the week in ttraining; but Amorim's fetish for varying something every week is evidently not satisfied by forced changes, so he also dropped Mason Mount, who'd been absolutely outstanding in his last two outings. Confusing the opposition with his line-ups seems to be the only 'tactical weapon' the floundering Portuguese coach has left to deploy. Brighton started very brightly, and for the first quarter or so of their game at Old Trafford they really looked more like the home side - having the lion's share of the possession, and looking more controlled and purposeful with it. They were very lucky to avoid conceding a penalty when De Cuyper stretched out his leg backwards to block Diallo and clearly clipped his foot (VAR unfathomably decided that it was OK because he'd got some sort of touch on the ball; I've seen several views of the incident, and am still utterly baffled by that verdict); but on the balance of play, they really didn't deserve to be going into half-time 2 goals down. Cunha had finally broken his goal-drought with a sweet finish (although he's still invariably having pops from well ouside the box, rather than trying to push further forward, or looking to play a teammate in, at least this time he managed to convince Verbruggen and his defenders that he was going to shoot straight ahead - drawing them to concentrate on the right half of their goal - and then switched his finish to a delicate curler just inside the left post), rather against the run-of-play; and then late in the half, Casemiro, of all people, put them 2 ahead with a scuffed shot that was heading well outside the post - until it deflected off a defender's bum, completely wrong-footing Verbruggen. (And that has somehow been credited to Casemiro, rather than going down as an own-goal - WTF??). Referee Anthony Taylor, and his VAR team, certainly weren't on Brighton's side, allowing Mbeumo's third goal to stand, even though Luke Shaw had plainly fouled Ayari - twice - at the start of the move. And then they somehow decided that Dorgu tripping Minteh was not a 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity' even though he was the last man (the rationale was apparently that the ball may have been running away from Minteh; but Minteh is very quick, and if he'd been allowed to continue his run into the penalty he might have caught up to the ball or at least drawn a foul from the outrushing keeper; and Dorgu presumably wouldn't have committed the foul if he didn't think his opponent had a clear goalscoring opportunity.....). There was more mayhem at the end of the game too, with 7 minutes of added-on time being indicated and more like 10 being played, during which both sides managed to pick up a further goal. (And Danny Welbeck, though he does have a good scoring record against his former club,.... does not have any kind of record for scoring from free-kicks!)  This one game, I think, was probably worth at least 4 of my 'luck' points: a completely chaotic and crazy ride!

The Saturday evening game at Brentford proved to be the day's most entertaining. Brentford were all over their illustrious visitors in the first half, moving ahead with Ouattara hooking in a volley from a long-throw after only a minute or so, and then extending the lead with a Schade breakaway which ruthlessly exposed the lack of pace in Liverpool's central defensive pair (Van Dijk, I fear, is aging out very quickly this season: he may still have some of that daunting physical 'aura' - but he just can't cover the ground any more). And indeed, they continued to be dangerous throughout the game, and Marmardashvili had to make a few outstanding saves to keep his side even vaguely in touch. Brentford were perhaps slightly fortunate to escape a penalty against Collins when he appeared to trip Gakpo: it was a very slight contact, but it was definitely there - and we usually see those given these days  (the occasional assertiveness of VAR in refusing to recommend any review of incidents like this is mystifyingly inconsistent). However, they can reasonably feel a bit miffed that the referee added further extra minutes, beyond the advertised three, for no obvious reason, at the end of the first-half - which provided the opportunity for Kerkez to get Liverpool back in the game with his last-gasp goal (yet another goal from a defender; and from a defender who's been having a wretched season so far - more 'luck' points there!!). Liverpool might feel slightly aggrieved that Brentford were able to reassert control in the game with a penalty; but they've got no case - Van Dijk definitely caught Ouattara's boot with a swish at the ball, and the contact was, as VAR correctly intervened to decide, right over the line. The referee (changed in the second-half: 4th official Tim Robinson had stepped in, because Simon Hooper was feeling a stiff hamstring) was otherwise doing everything he could to help Liverpool: there was again an enormous - inexplicable - amount of added-on time at the end of the half, and a pretty outrageous decision to penalise Kelleher under the new 'not getting rid of the ball quickly enough' rule (it's a controversial tweak that hasn't been very strictly applied so far; and Kelleher had not massively exceeded the nominal 8-second allowance anyway), to give Liverpool a chance to apply some late pressure from a corner - luckily, nothing came of that. A possible revitalization of prospects for the thus-far disappointing Kerkez and Salah with their fine goals perhaps doesn't really count as 'luck' (although, given recent form, they were among the more unlikely goalscorers for this game), but it may create renewed FPL interest in them from here on. The major FPL weirdness of the game - not necessarily 'unjust', just something that never ever happens - was that Dominik Szoboszlai earned the maximum bonus points, despite there being 5 different goalscorers in the game, 4 other providers of assists, and strong displays from both goalkeepers; the Hungarian star did indeed have a fine game, and was credited with an absolutely enormous number of 'defensive contributions' (hough that doesn't usually move the BPS needle much, if at all), but it is very, very odd that BPS rewarded him this week (somewhat makes up for a few earlier performances where he was very clearly the 'Man of the Match' but got absolutely no BPS recognition!).

Arsenal v Palace was as tight and scrappy as might have been expected from two of the league's most resilient defences, and it was perhaps a little bit of a surprise that this one didn't remain goalless. Yet again, it was a set-piece that made the difference for Arsenal, with Eze responding quickest to a second ball and rocketing home a volley from the edge of the box. In the first-half, the visitors had actually made the livelier start and created a few moments of danger.  The big surprise for FPL was that Gabriel, 'flagged' as a big injury doubt prior to the game, was able to start after all, and produced another dominating performance, narrowly missing out on extra 'defensive contribution' points, coming close to a goal of his own with a thunderous header against the crossbar, and claiming the maximum bonus points for the game; many FPL managers had been prompted to leave him on the bench this time, because of the injury uncertainty (although there would have been a case for resting him anyway, as Palace are the most formdiable opponents Arsenal have yet faced, and thus another clean sheet this week was probably much less than a 50% probability). More points-attribution weirdness here, with Declan Rice somehow being awarded the assist for the goal, even though another player headed his floated delivery back towards Eze on the edge of the area - what gives??

The Villa revival continues, as they cruised to a comfortable home win against City. Although one might fancy it's more a case of the City 'wobble' continuing, getting even worse (perhaps their horrendous 'Tron' change strip wasn't helping their cause!); they didn't really look any better than outside contenders for the Top Four with Rodri anchoring their midfield; without him, they're starting to look like mid-table non-entities. Even the great Erling Haaland had a 'quiet' game this time: not being able to find a decisive finish to get past Martinez on his lone breakaway in the first-half, and having his apparent late equaliser denied for an offside against Marmoush, who'd darted in behind to supply the square ball across the six-yard box. Villa were well-organised, but still lacked creative fluency, and needed a goal-out-of-nothing from Matty Cash to put them in front.

More weirdness at Bournemouth too, with Marcus Tavernier scoring direct from a corner (a true freak event that usually only occurs in the Premier League once every season or two), and then teenager Eli Kroupi hitting a banger from nearly 24 yards out. Bournemouth were well worth their comfortable win against a still floundering Forest - but the manner of the goals was unusual. There were two elements of controversy in the Tavernier goal too; Tyler Adams had given Matz Sels a cheeky little shove as the ball came in (it wasn't much of a contact, but it may have slightly unbalanced or distracted the keeper at a crucial moment - and they usually get a lot of protection from the officials); but more importantly, the corner should not have been awarded in the first place, as Neco Williams's block ricocheted back against Tavernier's toe before going out (it would be nice if the VAR process was slick enough to give near-instant overturns on this sort of wrong call; unfortunately, at the moment it clearly isn't).  It may also be a source of some FPL concern that Antoine Semenyo's 'hot streak' appears to be cooling somewhat, as other teammates - Tavernier, Kluivert, Scott, Brooks, Kroupi - are starting to shine more around him.

Poor Wolves are left wondering how on earth they lost at home to Burnley (a second defeat in a 'relegation six-pointer' already this season, having also been beaten at home by Leeds at the end of last month). They showed great spirit to get back on terms by half-time, after conceding two early goals through some dreadful defending; and in the second-half, they were well on top, but just couldn't find the opening that would put them ahead - though they went very, very close with a superb free-kick from Arias crashing against the crossbar, and a stinging volley from the always dangerous Bellegarde being well beaten away by Dubravka. Even at the death, they nearly changed the result - as, seconds after substitute Foster had nicked a third goal in added-on time, Santiago Bueno was denied at the other end by a superhuman save from Dubravka (we've seen many exceptional saves already this season; but really, that one might be a 'Save of the Season' contender). Fate just does not love Wolves this year. More FPL surprise here, in that two teams who've struggled for goals would not have been expected to produce such a high-scoring encounter, Zian Flemming, who bagged Burnley's first two, isn't even their preferred starter up-front (only deputising for Foster, who's feeling his way back after suffering a knock on international duty a couple of weeks back), and although Hartman is a handy attacking full-back, claiming 2 assists in the same game is a freakish rarity for anyone. I still think Wolves have too many good players to get relegated, but.... they're so deep in the mire now that they'll probably still be digging their way out next May; and they might not manage it, with the promoted sides looking so much stronger this season.

A rare sloppy defensive display from Everton cost their unbeaten record at their new stadium in Sunday's late game, one which threw up a fair amount of surprise and controversy. Jake O'Brien appeared to have grabbed a quick equaliser for the home side, heading in a near-post corner; but after a VAR intervention, it was ruled out for a supposed 'impeding the goalkeeper' offence. This looked like one of the most unjust decisions of the weekend: the pair of Everton players had merely placed themselves either side of Vicario, to restrict his movement; they weren't leaning on him, or even making contact at all. And the Spurs keeper is notoriously feeble about asserting himself in these situations where opposing players try to crowd him in the six-yard box: if an opponent is standing in your way, and you can't run through or around him - that's your fault, goalie, not his. However, the threshold for 'obstruction/distraction' is lower when the players are offside - as they were, after O'Brien had headed the corner goalwards; although that then becomes a very fine call as to when the relevant offence is deemed to have occurred (for me, Vcario was being 'obstructed', but not illegally so, when the corner was taken; he had forced his way past the Everton players by the time the header was directed towards him). So, although the decision feels harsh, it my have been technically correct (even David Moyes, who will usually argue any case, no matter how slim, for his side, was ultimately prepared to accept this ruling). Van de Ven, meanwhile, claimed a brace of headed goals from first-half corner-kicks, one from each side, one in the opening minutes and one in added-on time - yet another rather freakish event in the weekend (and he probably wouldn't even have been the main target for such set-pieces if Cristian Romero hadn't been out injured this week). Kudus was surely robbed of the assist for the first of these: did someone else get a flicked header on? was it decisive?? I don't think so! Spurs took their foot off the gas in the second-half, allowing Everton to try to find their way back: Ndiaye hooked an effort inches wide just minutes after the restart, and then Vicario had to pull off a fine reaction save from Beto's bicycle-kick. But their lack of incisiveness in front of goal again cost them dear, and ultimately Spurs were able to nick a third with a late break.

With a massive haul for a goalscoring defender in the opening game, we were already registering a point or two on the scale on Friday. Then were was a truly horrendous game at Old Trafford, with a penalty against De Cuyper and a sending-off for Dorgu inexplicably missed by the officials, a dubiously allowed goal for Mbeumo, and a mystifyingly misattributed one for Casemiro (should clearly have been an own-goal against poor Ayari). Another possibly missed penalty against Nathan Collins, and a whole raft of unexpected results, unexpected goalscorers, and unexpectedly high-scoring games on Saturday had this Gameweek well on course to become one of the weirdest of the season so far. And there was more strangeness on Sunday, with Tavernier's goal direct from a corner, a couple of worldies out-of-nothing from Cash and Kroupi, a couple of misattributed assists, and numerous efforts smashing the woodwork, going only just wide, or bringing out top-class stops from keepers. And yet again most of the goals were claimed by defenders, with almost nothing coming from most of the forwards and attacking midfielders, and almost all of the most fancied players in FPL - Haaland, Woltemade, Gyokeres, Mateta, Joao Pedro, Gakpo, Ndiaye, Grealish, Enzo Fernandez, Caicedo, Ismaila Sarr - producing 'blanks'. I feel the FPL 'Team of the Week' is one of the strongest indicators of the fluctuating 'luck factor': and this time we've got 4 double-digit hauls from defenders (all of them owned by only fairly small minorities), Emi Martinez the most successful keeper, Burnley's Zian Flemming the only forward to earn inclusion, and almost zero-owned Casemiro, Tavernier, and Aaronson making it into the midfield. WTF??? That alone, even without all the unusual game events and a few very dodgy refereeing calls, makes it an 8 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter' this week.

Dilemmas of the Week - Gameweek 9 (25/26)

 

We seem to have come through this week's batch of European games without too many problems - except for Liverpool, who suddenly face doubts over 3 key players.

I'm trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 9 of the season?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Gabriel, one of FPL's top-owned defenders, might be a doubt after limping off with a knock against Atleti the other night.

Villa full-back Lucas Digne is likely to be out for a week or two after getting his ankle crunched by Kevin Danso last Sunday.

Brighton's Diego Gpmez is a minor doubt after having to be withdrawn last week against Newcastle with a hip problem.

Bournemouth striker Evanilson was a late withdrawal last week, complaining of a calf strain. He too seems likely to be out for at least a week or two, which should provide starting opportunities for their exciting youngster, Eli Kroupi.

Everton's Jarrad Branthwaite was widely reported to have needed surgery on a long-standing thigh-muscle problem this week. If true, that would imply enhanced value for Michael Keane, keeping a regular start for at least a few more weeks. However, other sources have suggested that he's been training regularly this week - so, who knows what's up with that? (Probably of very marginal interest for FPL anyway: surely everybody's going for Tarkowski and/or one of the full-backs from that defence?)

Popular FPL defender Joachim Anderson (has been rather monstering the 'defensive contributions' so far) had to go off against Arsenal last week with a hamstring problem: doesn't seem too serious, but may sideline him for a week or two.

Leeds defender Pascal Struijk missed midweek training with an illness, so is a doubtful starter this weekend.

Liverpool seem to have been most heavily hit this week: Ryan Gravenberch is a doubt after having had to come off with an ankle injury against Manchester United last Sunday, while Alexander Isak (groin) and Jeremie Frimpong (hamstring) both limped out of last night's game against Frankfurt with muscle problems.

City's Nico Gonzalez suffered a knock in Tuesday night's game against Villareal, and might be 50/50 to feature against Villa.

Chris Wood and new winger Dilane Bakwa both missed Forest's midweek Eurepean game with minor issues which may keep them out again this weekend; and Oleks Zinchenko, gettting a rare start, limped off in that game. Dan Ndoye on the right wing and Neco Williams at left-back probably weren't in much danger of losing their usual starts anyway, but new boy Igor Jesus now seems likely to start up front for Forest.

Cristian Romero remains a doubt this week after pulling a muscle in the pre-game warm-up last Saturday, and Wilson Odobert is also suffering with a knock picked up in Wednesday's Monaco game.

West Ham central defender Konstantinos Mavropanos has suffered a muscle injury this week, and seems likely to be out for at least a few weeks. Presumably Jean-Clair Todibo will deputise.

And Wolves's dangerous midfielder Jean-ricner Bellegarde is another who's been laid low with illness this week.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Malo Gusto is serving a one-match ban this week, after being sent off for 2 yellow cards against Forest.

Remarkably, he's the only disciplinary absentee this week - although we do now have a number of players who are getting dangerously close to a 'totting up' suspension.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Mo Salah disappointed the legion of idolaters who were convinced that he always scores against Manchester United, and now some 450,000 owners have deserted him within a matter of days (although his ownership remains at a massive 32%, and might not drop much further from that - such is the blind faith that The Cultists have in him; well, that and the fact that a lot of them probably stopped playing the game when he failed to score a hattrick in his opening few appearances.....).

And there's also a bit of a mass exodus going on with a slew of other severely disappointing forwards: Viktor Gyokeres, Chris Wood, Richarlison, Alexander Isak, and Joao Pedro have all seen a big drop in ownership this week. The way these things go,.... probably at least one of them is suddenly about to turn things around. I suspect Joao Pedro might be the most promising option to gamble on for another week or two, since Chelsea still have a pretty soft fixture run ahead; and the prospect that the Brazilian might now be paired with Marc Guiu as a more conventional forward, allowing him to fulfill a more creative role in the 'No. 10' space, as happened in the second-half against Forest last week, gives further grounds for optimism, I think. (Though, to be honest, I would have lost patience with him long since: he has looked completely out of it, in Palmer's absence over the past month.)

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

A crucial goal for Bryan Mbeumo in Manchester United's surprising win over Liverpool last week has boosted interest in him. And goalie Senne Lammens is also attracting attention (not too unreasonably: United tend to be fairly solid at the back, even when they're struggling to create anything going forward; but they're not formidable enough for you to covet many of their other players, so their keeper is a free pick, unconstrained by 'club quota' anxieties). However, I don't fancy their fixture-run through November too much: even their next two opponents, Brighton and Forest, could cause them some problems; and Spurs, Everton, and Palace after that will be even tougher.

There's also an unseemly rush (325,000 new owners this week, and counting!) to bring in Jean-Philippe Mateta after last week's hattrick (still not an awfully convincing performance: one goal dubiously onside, one from a rather soft penalty award - at least 4 much better chances wasted!!); I can't see the point in buying him - or teammate Ismaila Sarr - until this week's visit to Arsenal is behind them. And I still fancy the recent form of Igor Thiago and Nick Woltemade far more for back-up strikers. Of course, Bournemouth's Eli Kroupi is also suddenly popular, after his impressive brace last week; a beguilingly cheap 4.5-million - but surely only likely to get 1 or 2 starts before Evanilson is back.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

A little bit of Zen (65)

 

"It's good to be able to perceive the nobility in failure. Otherwise, we might never have anything to celebrate."

GW

That's certainly long been the case for followers of the England football team! (Well, the men's team, at least. The women seem to have developed a disturbing habit of winning things. Will our chaps be able to take inspiration from their example? Or will it only serve to show us up even more?? Perhaps we'll find out next summer....)

It's usually how the FPL season pans out for most of us too....

Some ('non-Zen') WISE WORDS on our Internet culture

 

"If you need every story in your feed to be 'My team wins' and 'Here's why my side is the good one', you're WEAK - and deliberately keeping yourself ignorant."

Bill Maher

Veteran comedian/satirist/social commentator Bill Maher's Friday night political discussion show on HBO, Real Time, is one of my most regular Youtube fixes - particularly his 'New Rule' segment, the more 'serious' monologue with which he regularly concludes the show. 

He's often now decried by elements of 'The Left' in America as a 'sell-out' - because he's willing to engage with right-wing figureheads and talking-points on the show, and to crticise some of the grosser excesses of 'woke-ism' & co. But humour is essentially apolitical: it makes fun of whatever is most ripe to be made fun of. In essence, he is still very obviously the same anarchic hippie pot-lover he's always been. (So, yes, very largely a man after my own heart....)

His most recent 'New Rule' featured the devastating comment above on the 'bubble' mentality that online life now seems to create and perpetuate (and went on to suggest some ways in which we might seek to confound The Almighty Algorithm and break out of our 'bubbles' a little; the link embedded above should take you to the mid-point of his homily, where the key quotation I've copied here occurs; the whole piece is worth a watch).

I feel this is a point which has particular relevance to the realm of Fantasy Premier League. I am  widely reviled on most of the online forums about our Fantasy game that I contribute to - purely because I insist on repeatedly making points that many people find uncomfortable. - relentlessly questioning usually unquestioned 'truths'.  You know, things like: bonus chips do not automatically work better in Double Gameweeks;... a midfielder is usually a better captain/Triple Captain pick than a forward....; and 'effective ownership' has nothing to do with differential points advantage. That kind of thing.

Try to get used to this, people: DISCOMFORT is good for you, DISCOMFORT is an evolutionary stimulus.

You might disagree with me; you might not understand me; I might be wrong - but being willing to engage with ideas that you find challenging helps to grow your brain!

[I know my weekly 'A Little Bit of Zen' bon mots are often not very Buddhist in nature at all (mostly more Stoic or Daoist, or just sad-truth-wrapped-in-a-joke...); but I felt these observations really fell rather outside even the very loose parameters of that series.]

Viking plunder!!

 

Well, damn - the Lanky Viking has gone and done it again. Erling Haaland has notched his fourth brace - and his fourth double-digit FPL points haul - of the season that is still only two months old,... even against one of the league's better defences,.... even when his team are really still not playing all that well.

I don't like to say that any player is absolutely a must-have. There are almost always alternative stategies you can pursue by redistributing your budget spend around other players, and the highest points-producers are not usually 'essential' merely because of that.

But right now, in this sort of form, yes, Haaland is a must-have.

And it's not just because of his impressive numbers, his impressive consistency. It's also because of the complete lack of any competition, among the forwards or in any other position.

Even with the additional points now available for cumulative 'defensive contributions', it has been an astonishingly low-scoring FPL season so far. 

Ordinarily, we'd hope to see almost all of our starters breaking 50 points by this stage, and at least 2 or 3 of our biggest performers having racked up 60 or 70 or more. Last year, Salah, Palmer, Saka, and Mbeumo as well as Haaland posted enormous numbers in the opening months of the season. This year, Haaland is the only forward to have registered more than 50 points (his current total of 83 points is in fact more than twice as good as his closest rivals); Semenyo is the only midfielder to have done so (his 70 point total is well behind Haaland, but again almost twice as good as all but a dozen or so of his midfield rivals, and 24 points clear of the second-best), and the only other players to have just squeaked over that threshold are a trio of defenders (who've happened to pick up untypical goals early on).

There was a busier and more turbulent transfer window than usual at the start of this season, and many of the new players have disrupted the tactics of their new clubs and/or not yet found their feet in the new setting. We've also seen rather a lot of early-season injury problems, with the absences of Palmer and Saka - expected to be two of the top FPL performers - particularly unfortunate. The early international breaks have perhaps been a bit more disruptive than usual too. And, what with one thing and another, nobody's form has settled down yet, no team has been consistently or convincingly good so far - and we've seen a lot of unexpected results.

And almost none of the most fancied FPL assets have produced very much at all so far. In fact, NO-ONE  - apart from Haaland and Semenyo - has posted really good FPL numbers yet.

While this continues to be the case, and particularly while the other expensive players - Salah, Palmer, Isak, Saka, Gyokeres - are out of action or not producing, there is absolutely no pressure on the FPL budget: there is no problem about affording Haaland, even at his enormous 14-million-plus valuation. I said at the start of the season that it was difficult to envisage either Haaland or Salah 'justifying' their very high price-tags this year; but I noted there that because of a lack of budget pressure early in the season - with fewer high-priced players than usual, and most of them not fit - it was possible to afford one of them (but not both); and Haaland has obviously been the one to go for.

While Haaland is thus eminently 'affordable', is producing 2 or 3 times as many points as any of his rivals, and no-one else in the game is producing big points at all at the moment - YES, he is a must-have.

But this is a freak circumstance. I can't recall seeing anything quite like it before. And I don't think this situation will last very long. Haaland's points production will surely slow down at some stage. And, even if it doesn't, when the likes of Palmer, Saka, and Isak finally hit form (yes, sorry - I have rather given up on Mo Salah's prospects for this season), there may still be questions to be answered about whether Haaland continues to be a 'must-have'.

Enjoy this remarkable run while you can, Haaland idolaters - he's unlikely to remain an indispensable pick for the whole season.

Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 8

Well damn - Jean-Philippe Mateta, who's looked to be in rather indifferent form for most of this season so far, came up with a hattrick out of nowhere - against one of the best defences in the league. And Erling Haaland very nearly did - against one of the best defences on the league. So, if you had both of them - and had bet the captaincy on one of them - you had a splendid week. And if you didn't, you were screwed.  A lot of people had also had a hopeful punt on the Bench Boost chip this week - which worked out pretty nicely in most cases,  because there were many more clean sheets than usual and so defenders scored rather well. These two modest quirks of Fate alone make it already a pretty lucky week - before we even get down to considering the details of all the individual matches.

Chelsea looked sluggish and inept in the first half at Forest, repeatedly giving the ball away, and allowing the rather poor home side a few dangerous moments - including a couple of good chances for Gibbs-White that he was unable to convert. At least Maresca was able to revitalise things at half-time, with the introduction of Marc Guiu as a conventional No. 9 allowing Joao Pedro to operate more productively in the '10' space; this might be a promising new model for them going forward (at least until Cole Palmer's return; now not expected until late November or early December). Even so, Forest still had opportunities to get back in the game, after conceding two quick goals early in the second-half - with new forward Igor Jesus managing to hit both crossbar and post with an effort. There are question-marks too about how the normally impeccable Matz Sels left a huge hole in the middle of his wall for Neto to punch a free-kick through for the second goal - and let the effort squirm past him; a strange double error from one of last season's top FPL keepers. It did seem that Fate was conspiring against the hapless Ange Postecoglou, who achieved the unfortunate record of being the Premier League's shortest-lived permanent manager when his dismissal was announced shortly after the game.

Newcastle were one of a number of sides who looked jaded after the international break, and although much improved with some changes at the break, they couldn't properly drag themselves back into the game, and Danny Welbeck was able to put home side Brighton ahead for a second time. A cheeky back-heeled goal for the equaliser from Nich Woltemade was the only real highlight of a fairly drab match. And Mats Wieffer might be a little bit fortunate to have escaped conceding a penalty for a handball; it looked very much to me as if he made a deliberate movement towards the ball with his upper-arm; but the law on this is such a convoluted mess now, with culpability somehow to be divined from body posture, it's no surprise to see decisions like this given or not given - with no consistency at all from week to week

Visitors Leeds had much the best of the game at Burnley - after the home side had taken a lead inside 20 minutes - but were not able to contrive any really good chances; their best effort was a first-half shot from Brenden Aaronson deflected on to a post by Dubravka. Substitute Loum Tchaouna's second - a banger from nearly 30 yards out - was very much against the run of play, and gave the home side a winning margin that unduly flattered them.

In a day which produced 5 clean sheets from 7 matches, perhaps the biggest surprise was that the fixture with two of the best defences in the league so far this season produced not the cagey low-scoring - or goalless! - draw that might have been expected, but a free-scoring goalfest! Bournemouth youngster Eli Kroupi bagged a brace to put the visitors comfortably ahead against Palace, but Mateta eventually pulled the home side level - despite having spurned a couple of the best chances that fell to him. Bournemouth pulled in front again, but Mateta then got a chance to complete an improbable hattrick deep in stoppage time with a slightly soft penalty award for some minor 'wrestling' in the box. And then he got a last-gasp chance to claim an undeserved win, but blazed over the bar with an open goal!!  Apart from that highly significant and slightly questionable late penalty decision, there was an inordinately long VAR check on a very tight offside call for Mateta's first goal, and a review (for once, resulting in no change to the referee's original decision) on whether Senesi should have been sent off for a 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity', when he clattered Sarr as he was racing in behind. Jarred Gillett's rationale that Sarr's run was angled slightly away from goal and there was another defender in the middle almost level with him was, well, plausible, I suppose: but it looked like the kind of situation where the decision would go against the defender at least 60% of the time, so Senesi can count himself very, very fortunate. Evanilson's failure to appear, thanks to a calf strain picked up in training, might have been a blow to some - although he hasn't found his scoring boots yet this season, and is thus only owned by 2.7% of FPL managers..

Everton had rather the better of the opening 45 minutes at The Etihad, and really might have gone a goal or two ahead; but they strangely fell apart in the second-half, as the home side progressively ramped up the pressure. And that man Haaland yet again bagged a brace - somewhat unexpectedly, against one of the season's best defensive sides. Indeed, he might well have had a hattrick: unusually left on the pitch until the final whistle, he had a number of good chances in added-on time, but somehow couldn't convert any of them! Pep yet again proved his callous indifference towards FPL enthusiasts by pulling Reijnders and Doku just shy of the hour mark! (Although, damn, he's not the only one; everybody was at it this week!)

Poor old Wolves slide deeper into the mire, well adrift at the bottom of the table now, after failing to get anything from a 'relegation six-pointer' against one of the promoted sides (although Sunderland are starting to look as if they might be good enough to secure Premier League survival fairly early). They were a bit unfortunate here: actually on top for much of the game, but unable to create any clearcut chances - apart from Munetsi's fierce second-half volley, well saved by Roefs. And they were sorely abused-by-fate when poor Krejci prodded the ball past his own keeper in added-on time. There was also a major slice of FPL luck in the fact that the first goal had been claimed by centre-back Nordi Mukiele, who's only just become a popular pick in the game because his defensive partner Alderete, one of the top budget picks so far, had become an injury doubt after international duty; so, nearly 85,000 managers who've only just brought him in saw him improbably pop up in the opposing penalty area, demand a return pass from Hume, and somehow squeeze a shot through Sam Johnstone's legs... to become one of the day's top haulers!!

Arsenal didn't look anything like title favourites with an arid display at Craven Cottage; and a lively performance from the home side produced almost all of the game's best chances - until Leandro Trossard managed to nick the win with a typical poacher's goal in the second-half. There was again much frustration for owners of Calafiori - who appeared to have bagged an opening goal with a stunning volley, but had strayed slightly offside; and later had decent efforts hit a post and drift over the bar. Gyokeres's continuing lack of impact is becoming a major concern to both Arsenal fans and FPL managers (nearly 25% of the game's players have piled in for him, many just in this past week, in anticipation of big returns for him in a title-chasing side - but it's just not happening at the moment). The only contentious features in this game were the attribution of an assist to Gabriel (it surely should have been corner-taker Saka's; the big centre-back didn't appear to get anything of his head on the ball to help it on towards the far post), and the reversal of a penalty award to Saka after a pitchside second look (as it happened, absolutely the right decision: Kevin made little or no contact with Saka, but did divert the course of the ball with his toe - it was however, very difficult to see clearly on the TV pictures, and the perverse insistence on showing referee Anthony Taylor a montage of freeze-frame and slow-motion views only made it more so; this is a situation where I would have been happy to see VAR save time by promptly declaring that 'no determination was possible' because of the poor quality of the available TV camera-angles - even if that meant Taylor's initial 'wrong' decision was allowed to stand).

Spurs v Villa was a bit of 'a game of two halves'. Villa were well on top for most of the first half, despite having conceded an early lead with some sloppy defending. Spurs had much more about them after the break, but still couldn't muster any decent attempts on goal - and then conceded one of the team goals of the season late in the game, to let all the points slip. The often flakey Vicario looked very at fault on Villa's equaliser: Rogers's dipping effort from 25 yards out was cleanly but not very fiercely struck, yet somehow the Spurs keeper's dive didn't get him anywhere near it. Unai Emery initially left Watkins on the bench - supposedly because he was struggling with a knock suffered with England; but he looked fine when he came on for the last 20 minutes; there's a whiff of dressing-room dissent about that. Cristian Romero was also a shock omission, apparently having felt a muscle problem during the pre-game warm-up. Kevin Danso was perhaps a bit fortunate not to have a penalty awarded against him when he stomped on Lucas Digne's ankle; the contact was presumably deemed 'accidental', and the result of a natural follow-through on the tackle - but impacts that consequential are rarely viewed so leniently.

Manchester United really weren't that good in Sunday afternoon's meeting, but were somehow good enough to best a suddenly very ordinary-looking Liverpool side. Getting a goal out-of-nothing through Bryan Mbeuo inside the opening few minutes was certainly a big help. (It was unfortunate that Macallister had been temporarily wiped out by a collision with is own captain Van Dijk; and neither Van Dijk nor keeper Marmardashvili covered themselve in glory in trying to deal with Mbeumo's subsequent break on goal.)  Cody Gakpo was both a hero and villain for the home side (along with Szoboszlai, much the best player on the pitch), eventually claiming a deserved equaliser, after twice thumping efforts against a post earlier on; but then somehow spurning a late chance to equalise again when Frimpong's deft chipped cross to the far post teed him up with an open goal but he somehow angled his header wide of the upright. Liverpool absolutely dominated about 75% of this game, but just hadn't brought their scoring boots along; and even when they finally managed to get back in the contest, they were immediately let down by another bizarre defensive lapse - three United defenders being left unmarked at the far post as they recycled the ball from a corner routine, and Harry Maguire gratefully converting the free header. Amorim, continuing with his strange self-imposed principle of changing something very single week, this week left out Sesko and tried Mason Mount as a 'false 9'; it worked as well as anything else he's tried - which is to say, not very.... He increasingly gives the impression of a man who really has no idea what he's doing; and when his team do occaasionally come up with something, it's down to spirit and individual skill or determination - not his tactics.

There didn't seem to be anything much of note in Monday night's game between Brentford and West Ham - except that the still very ropey-looking home side were probably a bit lucky not to lose more heavily. Thiago owners will be miffed that the Mbeumo-clone sliced his best chance - a side-foot half-volley inside the six-yard box - against the bar, and had an apparent second goal eventually ruled out for an incredibly tight offside call. His strike partner Kevin Schade also thundered a header against the underside of the crossbar in the second-half, and Areola had to make 3 or 4 smart saves to keep the margin of defeat respectable. The new Semi-Automated Offside Technology was unavailable in the first half because of a snafu with the cloud services that support it; I wonder if that might have made a difference to the Thiago decision.

Nothing of note in the refereeing this weekend, apart from two mildly contentious decisions on a penalty and a sending-off from Jarred Gillett at Selhurst Park, and possible penalties against Brighton and Spurs. However, that Palace/Bournemouth goal spree is worth a few 'luck' points all on its own. The unexpected huge haul from Sunderland defender Mukiele had such a big impact in FPL that that's probably worth another 1 or 2 points as well! There have been a few somewhat surprising non-starters (Chris Wood, Ollie Watkins, Evanilson, Caicedo...), and a whole raft of early substitutions. And we yet again have a 'Team of the Week' that is chock-full of surprises; only Haaland, Gabriel, and perhaps Mateta would feature in more than a tiny percentage of teams, and it is very unlikely that anyone owns more than handful of them!

So, it feels like this Gameweek is ultimately a 5 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter', despite an unusual lack of controversy about the officiating.

Dilemmas of the Week - Gameweek 8 (25/26)

There were a few scares, but.... it looks as though we've come through this latest international break relatively unscathed.

I'm trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 8 of the season?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Martin Odegaard is injured again, coming off early in the GW7 West Ham game with a knee problem which seems likely to keep him out for some weeks at least.

Ollie Watkins picked up a 'knock' with England, but should be OK for Sunday's visit to Spurs.

Bournemouth's David Brooks tweaked a hamstring on duty with Wales: not too serious, but will be out this week, at least. At least Justin Kluivert finally seems to be ready for a start again.

Brighton's new star Diego Gomez suffered a heavy knock playing for Paraguay this week, but is expected to be OK to play against Newcastle.

Burnley striker Lyle Foster got a dead leg playing for South Africa, but Scott Parker hopes he'll be able to play this weekend. There is also still a question-mark over Jaidon Anthony - currently the second highest-returning midfielder in FPL - after he appeared to suffer a muscle injury last time out against Villa, although his withdrawal there was described as mainly 'precautionary', so he too is odds-on to still start.

Enzo Fernandez is a doubt for Chelsea this week, after withdrawing from the Argentina squad with discomfort in one of his knee joints; Facundo Buonanotte will probably deputise for him, if that issue doesn't resolve. Benoit Badiashile has also joined their long injury roster, and Pedro Neto and Moises Caicedo also reportedly missed training with minor problems after returning from the internationals this week. And Enzo Maresca has recently said that Cole Palmer's troublesome groin strain will probably keep him out for another 6 weeks or so - Chelsea in all sorts of problems!

Leeds's Swiss winger Noah Okafor, a goalscorer for them in Gameweek 7, seems likely to miss out because of a thigh problem - making space for a second chance for Jack Harrison.

Ibrahima Konate had to come off with a thigh problem against Chelsea two weeks ago, but has been pictured in training this week, so will probably be OK to start.

Rodri's problematic knee broke down again in the last league game against Brentford, and he looks like he'll be out 'for a while'. The evidence of last season suggests that City will be a lot more vulnerable in his absence (and they haven't been looking that great so far, even with him).

Noussair Mazraoui has been out of training for United with an unspecified problem, and Casemiro must be doubtful to start this week after two full games for Brazil and a long flight back. (Surely no-one in FPL owns Casemiro, but... his absence may have a knock-on effect on other United selections; e.g., maybe Mount will play in central midfield...)

Chris Wood was another struggling with knee discomfort during the internationals, but is expected to be able to turn out for Forest this weekend (though he has rapidly lapsed into irrelevance for FPL, as his and his team's form has tanked under the stewardship of Ange Postecoglou).

Sunderland's Omar Alderete (suddenly one of the most popular cheap defender picks, with over 400,000 piling in for him in the last couple of weeks) also picked up a muscle problem playing for Paraguay, and is 50/50 to start this week, probably needing a last-minute fitness test.

Niclas Fullkrug is out again, this time with a thigh problem. Will Callum Wilson finally get a chance to start? Perhaps not: the ultra-cautious Nuno still seems to doubt his stamina or resilience, and may prefer to use someone like Paqueta as a 'false 9'.

Hwang Hee-Chan has picked up a knock, and Jeanricner Bellegarde has missed training with an illness.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Sunderland's Mozambican fullback Reinildo is serving the last instalment of a three-game ban.

Loanee Jack Grealish is ineligible to play for Everton against Manchester City this week.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

I still wouldn't go anywhere near Manchester United (Mason Mount was very good against Sunderland; but there must be a worry about his fitness, or how often he'll start - in competition for the place with Cunha) or West Ham players (except Bowen, maybe??).

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

I continue to think that Brentford's Igor Thiago looks the most impressive of the (non-Haaland!) forwards at the moment, although Nick Woltemade ('Voldemort') is rapidly becoming a popular pick (in the continuing absence of any form from Isak, Joao Pedro, or Gyokeres...). I suspect Jorgen Strand Larsen - if he's fully fit again, after a troublesome Achilles strain - could soon get back into that conversation too. Ismaila Sarr is suddenly becoming very popular again, with nearly 300,000 transferring him in over the international break, after a goal and an assist in his last two outings; however, I feel that move is probably a little premature, as Palace's next two fixtures are tough; like many teams, they hit a more gentle run of opponents from Gameweek 10.

Donyell Malen looked very promising as a strike partner for Ollie Watkins (and he's a 'midfielder'!!), but I doubt if that alone can turn Villa's fortunes around - particularly with the rather grim run of fixtures they've got over the next 4 games.

I fancy back-from-injury Bukayo Saka is about to explode. (It's astonishing how wary people have been about bringing him back in....)

Liverpool's excellent new stand-in keeper Giorgi Mamardashvili could be a tempting short-term option (how long is Alisson going to be out for??); he only costs 4.3 million (and, remarkably, only 29,000 have taken that punt so far....).

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

To dream the impossible dream...?

Every four years (well, every two years...), Englishmen have to try very hard not to get their hopes up about our chances in the next big international tournament.

But this time, not only do we have a really exceptional crop of young players to choose from, we also seem to have a manager who may know what he's doing....

Top Youtube football analyst Adam Clery puts forward this bold thesis that, quite apart from tactical insight and astute man management, Thomas Tuchel might be unique among recent England managers in having the cojones to leave out some of our starriest players in order to achieve a better balance in the side.

I find it difficult to disagree too much with any of Adam's ideas - because he's a very shrewd observer of the game, and also an irresistibly likeable, down-to-earth chap. I'm kind of 50/50 on this one, though. I approve of the general point (it's exactly what I said when Tuchel first took over, about having the courage to regard no player as a sacred cow); and I'm very excited about the stability Elliot Anderson suddenly seems to be giving our central midfield. But you have to be a little bit wary of getting over-excited about our smooth progression through a particularly puny qualifying group (even teams that have looked vaguely threatening in recent years - Serbia, Albania - suddenly weren't again!!).

And I am not completely convinced about the current personnel - or the the notion of omitting major talents for this to become our regular starting lineup. I'd probably prefer to build for the next 10 years around Palmer and Bellingham (and Saka and Eze...), rather than go with a bunch of slightly less stellar options who 'fit better with Harry Kane' (for this one tournament!). But it's certainly something to think about.

A little bit of Zen (64)

"A man is not old until regrets take the place of dreams."

John Barrymore

"It is a pity that young women and prospective employers do not recognise this wisdom..."

GW

It is my birthday next week. The associated number is getting large. I am not thrilled about that.

Sheep Picks (15)

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are dangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

Yes, for my first nomination of the 2025-26 season, I'm going for Newcastle keeper, Nick Pope.

As I usually say with these posts, I have nothing against the player himself. He's a fine goalie, and he's been (mostly) in excellent form this season. Anyone who does pick him as their first-choice keeper for FPL might not be dramatically disappointed.

But you only get to pick one (regularly starting) goalkeeper for FPL, as against multiple players for all the outfield positions; and you don't usually want to change your goalkeeper too often, if at all. So, it's really important to get the right one. And I don't feel that Nick Pope is the right goalkeeper for FPL this year.

And yet he is the most transferred-in goalkeeper since the end of Gameweek 7, with 170,000 new managers piling in for him (already; it's likely to be even more by Saturday's GW8 deadline); and the 12th most transferred-in player of all, which is pretty remarkable, given how little transfer activity goalkeepers typically generate.

The only reason I can see for this is that he happens to be top of the FPL goalkeeper rankings at the moment.  Yes, he's kept 5 clean sheets so far. But... Newcastle have had a fairly kind opening run of fixtures: 4 of those clean sheets were against pretty abject opponents - Villa, Leeds, Wolves, and Forest - who barely mustered a decent effort on target between them.

Pope only ranked 8th= as a shot-stopper in the Premier League last season. He's up to 5th at the moment on that metric - but well behind Henderson, Roefs, Sels, and Johnstone. For saves so far this season - which are typically just about as important to a goalie's total FPL returns as clean sheets - he's only 5th=, again behind Sels and Roefs, but also Dubravka and Vicario; and no better than Petrovic, Leno, and Kelleher (all of them cheaper). He's only earned 4 'saves points' so far this season - 4 times in 7 starts: good, but far from outstanding (and in 2 of those games he barely squeaked over the line, being officially credited with exactly 3 saves in each, just enough to qualify for the points).

Paradoxical as it may seem, if Newcastle do turn out to have one of the tightest defences this year (and I think they might), that's not necessarily good for their goalie's FPL prospects. An ideal FPL keeper hits that sweet spot between his defence being good enough to help him avoid conceding too many goals too often, and come through with a decent - though it doesn't have to be world-beating - number of clean sheets,... while also being in a team that is weak enough or inconsistent enough to struggle against a lot of opponents, and hence give him lots of opportunities to make saves.

But at the moment, we really don't know what we're going to get from Newcastle this year. Despite some decent results, their form has looked erratic, unreliable so far. They are once again struggling to adapt to the additional demands of midweek Champions League football. And they seem to be perpetually hobbled with injuries in their defence; currently, full-backs Tino Livramento and Lewis Hall are set to be out for a medium-term absence.

They don't even have a great run of fixtures coming up next. Under Eddie Howe, they have become notorious for being much less formidable on the road; and 4 of their next 6 matches are away from home (3 of them against sides who, though defensively flakey, are capable of producing danger in attack; and the last one against Everton, a side who lack a bit of incisiveness up-front, but are looking defensively very strong this year). And 2 of their next 3 home games are against City and Spurs! Who really is betting on Newcastle to keep many - or any??? - clean sheets in that run?! (Yes, maybe he'll do really well for saves over that run of games. But that's a dangerous thing to gamble on. And really, even over a fairly short sequence of games, you need an FPL goalkeeper to be picking up some points for both saves and clean sheets.)

On no criterion - performance stats, team form, team consistency/reliability, selection stability of the teammates in front of him, fixtures - does Nick Pope look like the best goalkeeper prospect for FPL over the next couple of months,.... not anywhere near.

So, we must assume that The Sheep are - as so often - simply being dazzled by the high points total he happens to be enjoying at the moment. (Without having given any thought to how he acquired that points total, or how likely he is to continue scoring at that sort of rate in the upcoming games...)

And a final observation on selecting goalkeepers: in addition to finding that sweet spot of being in a team that keeps a fair number of clean sheets (so, not Forest this year, by the look of it - not unless they get another change of manager soon; nor probably Burnley, or Brentford, or Sunderland, or Brighton, despite their impressive keeper performances so far) but is a team that is also sometimes vulnerable enough to leave its keeper needing to make lots of saves (so, not Arsenal; nor - despite being a bit flakier now than at their peak - City nor Liverpool), you also really want to take a keeper from a team that you're never likely to want 3 outfield players from. (That's because an in-form outfield player - particularly a forward or a goalscoring midfielder - will almost always give you a much bigger points-lift over the next best alternatives in their position than the best goalkeeper will over his rivals. And you want to retain flexibility to bring in another such player from a good team whenever that hot run of form appears to be emerging....  Taking the goalie from Arsenal or Liverpool or City or Chelsea - or even Spurs or Newcastle or Bournemouth - rarely yields any more points than good mid-table options like Henderson, Pickford, Leno, or Sels; but it is potentially blocking you from being able to bring in a player like Trossard or Eze, or Gakpo or Frimpong, or Marmoush or Doku, or Enzo or Estevao, etc., etc. when you might want them.)

It is quite likely that we'll want (at least) one Newcastle defender at some point this season; currently, Woltemade is starting to look perhaps the most appealing mid-priced forward option; Guimaraes and Tonali are potentially 'in the conversation' for a cheaper midfielder who gets occasional goals as well as good 'defensive contributions' points; and Gordon (or Barnes or Murphy or Elanga) will probably have a good points-scoring run at some point.

Hence, even if there were very strong reasons for fancying Nick Pope as the best goalkeeping option at the moment, I'd hesitate to pick him on club quota grounds; however good he might be, there are probably going to be other Newcastle players you'll want more. It's not as overwhelmingly powerful an argument as it is with Arsenal and Liverpool, but it is a point that should be kept in mind. But there are currently no strong reasons for fancying Nick Pope as FPL's best goalkeeping option.