Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 8

Well damn - Jean-Philippe Mateta, who's looked to be in rather indifferent form for most of this season so far, came up with a hattrick out of nowhere - against one of the best defences in the league. And Erling Haaland very nearly did - against one of the best defences on the league. So, if you had both of them - and had bet the captaincy on one of them - you had a splendid week. And if you didn't, you were screwed.  A lot of people had also had a hopeful punt on the Bench Boost chip this week - which worked out pretty nicely in most cases,  because there were many more clean sheets than usual and so defenders scored rather well. These two modest quirks of Fate alone make it already a pretty lucky week - before we even get down to considering the details of all the individual matches.

Chelsea looked sluggish and inept in the first half at Forest, repeatedly giving the ball away, and allowing the rather poor home side a few dangerous moments - including a couple of good chances for Gibbs-White that he was unable to convert. At least Maresca was able to revitalise things at half-time, with the introduction of Marc Guiu as a conventional No. 9 allowing Joao Pedro to operate more productively in the '10' space; this might be a promising new model for them going forward (at least until Cole Palmer's return; now not expected until late November or early December). Even so, Forest still had opportunities to get back in the game, after conceding two quick goals early in the second-half - with new forward Igor Jesus managing to hit both crossbar and post with an effort. There are question-marks too about how the normally impeccable Matz Sels left a huge hole in the middle of his wall for Neto to punch a free-kick through for the second goal - and let the effort squirm past him; a strange double error from one of last season's top FPL keepers. It did seem that Fate was conspiring against the hapless Ange Postecoglou, who achieved the unfortunate record of being the Premier League's shortest-lived permanent manager when his dismissal was announced shortly after the game.

Newcastle were one of a number of sides who looked jaded after the international break, and although much improved with some changes at the break, they couldn't properly drag themselves back into the game, and Danny Welbeck was able to put home side Brighton ahead for a second time. A cheeky back-heeled goal for the equaliser from Nich Woltemade was the only real highlight of a fairly drab match. And Mats Wieffer might be a little bit fortunate to have escaped conceding a penalty for a handball; it looked very much to me as if he made a deliberate movement towards the ball with his upper-arm; but the law on this is such a convoluted mess now, with culpability somehow to be divined from body posture, it's no surprise to see decisions like this given or not given - with no consistency at all from week to week

Visitors Leeds had much the best of the game at Burnley - after the home side had taken a lead inside 20 minutes - but were not able to contrive any really good chances; their best effort was a first-half shot from Brenden Aaronson deflected on to a post by Dubravka. Substitute Loum Tchaouna's second - a banger from nearly 30 yards out - was very much against the run of play, and gave the home side a winning margin that unduly flattered them.

In a day which produced 5 clean sheets from 7 matches, perhaps the biggest surprise was that the fixture with two of the best defences in the league so far this season produced not the cagey low-scoring - or goalless! - draw that might have been expected, but a free-scoring goalfest! Bournemouth youngster Eli Kroupi bagged a brace to put the visitors comfortably ahead against Palace, but Mateta eventually pulled the home side level - despite having spurned a couple of the best chances that fell to him. Bournemouth pulled in front again, but Mateta then got a chance to complete an improbable hattrick deep in stoppage time with a slightly soft penalty award for some minor 'wrestling' in the box. And then he got a last-gasp chance to claim an undeserved win, but blazed over the bar with an open goal!!  Apart from that highly significant and slightly questionable late penalty decision, there was an inordinately long VAR check on a very tight offside call for Mateta's first goal, and a review (for once, resulting in no change to the referee's original decision) on whether Senesi should have been sent off for a 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity', when he clattered Sarr as he was racing in behind. Jarred Gillett's rationale that Sarr's run was angled slightly away from goal and there was another defender in the middle almost level with him was, well, plausible, I suppose: but it looked like the kind of situation where the decision would go against the defender at least 60% of the time, so Senesi can count himself very, very fortunate. Evanilson's failure to appear, thanks to a calf strain picked up in training, might have been a blow to some - although he hasn't found his scoring boots yet this season, and is thus only owned by 2.7% of FPL managers..

Everton had rather the better of the opening 45 minutes at The Etihad, and really might have gone a goal or two ahead; but they strangely fell apart in the second-half, as the home side progressively ramped up the pressure. And that man Haaland yet again bagged a brace - somewhat unexpectedly, against one of the season's best defensive sides. Indeed, he might well have had a hattrick: unusually left on the pitch until the final whistle, he had a number of good chances in added-on time, but somehow couldn't convert any of them! Pep yet again proved his callous indifference towards FPL enthusiasts by pulling Reijnders and Doku just shy of the hour mark! (Although, damn, he's not the only one; everybody was at it this week!)

Poor old Wolves slide deeper into the mire, well adrift at the bottom of the table now, after failing to get anything from a 'relegation six-pointer' against one of the promoted sides (although Sunderland are starting to look as if they might be good enough to secure Premier League survival fairly early). They were a bit unfortunate here: actually on top for much of the game, but unable to create any clearcut chances - apart from Munetsi's fierce second-half volley, well saved by Roefs. And they were sorely abused-by-fate when poor Krejci prodded the ball past his own keeper in added-on time. There was also a major slice of FPL luck in the fact that the first goal had been claimed by centre-back Nordi Mukiele, who's only just become a popular pick in the game because his defensive partner Alderete, one of the top budget picks so far, had become an injury doubt after international duty; so, nearly 85,000 managers who've only just brought him in saw him improbably pop up in the opposing penalty area, demand a return pass from Hume, and somehow squeeze a shot through Sam Johnstone's legs... to become one of the day's top haulers!!

Arsenal didn't look anything like title favourites with an arid display at Craven Cottage; and a lively performance from the home side produced almost all of the game's best chances - until Leandro Trossard managed to nick the win with a typical poacher's goal in the second-half. There was again much frustration for owners of Calafiori - who appeared to have bagged an opening goal with a stunning volley, but had strayed slightly offside; and later had decent efforts hit a post and drift over the bar. Gyokeres's continuing lack of impact is becoming a major concern to both Arsenal fans and FPL managers (nearly 25% of the game's players have piled in for him, many just in this past week, in anticipation of big returns for him in a title-chasing side - but it's just not happening at the moment). The only contentious features in this game were the attribution of an assist to Gabriel (it surely should have been corner-taker Saka's; the big centre-back didn't appear to get anything of his head on the ball to help it on towards the far post), and the reversal of a penalty award to Saka after a pitchside second look (as it happened, absolutely the right decision: Kevin made little or no contact with Saka, but did divert the course of the ball with his toe - it was however, very difficult to see clearly on the TV pictures, and the perverse insistence on showing referee Anthony Taylor a montage of freeze-frame and slow-motion views only made it more so; this is a situation where I would have been happy to see VAR save time by promptly declaring that 'no determination was possible' because of the poor quality of the available TV camera-angles - even if that meant Taylor's initial 'wrong' decision was allowed to stand).

Spurs v Villa was a bit of 'a game of two halves'. Villa were well on top for most of the first half, despite having conceded an early lead with some sloppy defending. Spurs had much more about them after the break, but still couldn't muster any decent attempts on goal - and then conceded one of the team goals of the season late in the game, to let all the points slip. The often flakey Vicario looked very at fault on Villa's equaliser: Rogers's dipping effort from 25 yards out was cleanly but not very fiercely struck, yet somehow the Spurs keeper's dive didn't get him anywhere near it. Unai Emery initially left Watkins on the bench - supposedly because he was struggling with a knock suffered with England; but he looked fine when he came on for the last 20 minutes; there's a whiff of dressing-room dissent about that. Cristian Romero was also a shock omission, apparently having felt a muscle problem during the pre-game warm-up. Kevin Danso was perhaps a bit fortunate not to have a penalty awarded against him when he stomped on Lucas Digne's ankle; the contact was presumably deemed 'accidental', and the result of a natural follow-through on the tackle - but impacts that consequential are rarely viewed so leniently.

Manchester United really weren't that good in Sunday afternoon's meeting, but were somehow good enough to best a suddenly very ordinary-looking Liverpool side. Getting a goal out-of-nothing through Bryan Mbeuo inside the opening few minutes was certainly a big help. (It was unfortunate that Macallister had been temporarily wiped out by a collision with is own captain Van Dijk; and neither Van Dijk nor keeper Marmardashvili covered themselve in glory in trying to deal with Mbeumo's subsequent break on goal.)  Cody Gakpo was both a hero and villain for the home side (along with Szoboszlai, much the best player on the pitch), eventually claiming a deserved equaliser, after twice thumping efforts against a post earlier on; but then somehow spurning a late chance to equalise again when Frimpong's deft chipped cross to the far post teed him up with an open goal but he somehow angled his header wide of the upright. Liverpool absolutely dominated about 75% of this game, but just hadn't brought their scoring boots along; and even when they finally managed to get back in the contest, they were immediately let down by another bizarre defensive lapse - three United defenders being left unmarked at the far post as they recycled the ball from a corner routine, and Harry Maguire gratefully converting the free header. Amorim, continuing with his strange self-imposed principle of changing something very single week, this week left out Sesko and tried Mason Mount as a 'false 9'; it worked as well as anything else he's tried - which is to say, not very.... He increasingly gives the impression of a man who really has no idea what he's doing; and when his team do occaasionally come up with something, it's down to spirit and individual skill or determination - not his tactics.

There didn't seem to be anything much of note in Monday night's game between Brentford and West Ham - except that the still very ropey-looking home side were probably a bit lucky not to lose more heavily. Thiago owners will be miffed that the Mbeumo-clone sliced his best chance - a side-foot half-volley inside the six-yard box - against the bar, and had an apparent second goal eventually ruled out for an incredibly tight offside call. His strike partner Kevin Schade also thundered a header against the underside of the crossbar in the second-half, and Areola had to make 3 or 4 smart saves to keep the margin of defeat respectable. The new Semi-Automated Offside Technology was unavailable in the first half because of a snafu with the cloud services that support it; I wonder if that might have made a difference to the Thiago decision.

Nothing of note in the refereeing this weekend, apart from two mildly contentious decisions on a penalty and a sending-off from Jarred Gillett at Selhurst Park, and possible penalties against Brighton and Spurs. However, that Palace/Bournemouth goal spree is worth a few 'luck' points all on its own. The unexpected huge haul from Sunderland defender Mukiele had such a big impact in FPL that that's probably worth another 1 or 2 points as well! There have been a few somewhat surprising non-starters (Chris Wood, Ollie Watkins, Evanilson, Caicedo...), and a whole raft of early substitutions. And we yet again have a 'Team of the Week' that is chock-full of surprises; only Haaland, Gabriel, and perhaps Mateta would feature in more than a tiny percentage of teams, and it is very unlikely that anyone owns more than handful of them!

So, it feels like this Gameweek is ultimately a 5 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter', despite an unusual lack of controversy about the officiating.