It's neither A SPRINT nor A MARATHON

 

You often find folks on the FPL online forums saying about this Fantasy game of ours: "It's a marathon, not a sprint."

And you can see what they mean: it's supposed to be dismissive of people who gloat unduly over a single week's success (or become too disheartened at a single week's disaster...), reminding them that things can change over a long season, and - most importantly - that you should focus on longer-term goals, longer-term planning than merely optimising for the coming gameweek.

It's just unfortunate that the phrase has become devalued by overuse, reduced to a glib cliché - whose true significance is rarely reflected upon fully.

And the thing is.... it's not a marathon either. 

The FPL season is actually more like a series of middle-distance races.

It breaks down into into roughly 5 or 6 blocks of fixtures (of about 6-8 games each; though, depending on circumstances, they might occasionally be a little longer, or - rarely - ever so slightly shorter). And you should really be planning your transfers around these blocks; trying to optimise your team not just for the next gameweek or two, but for the next six or so.

There are some 'macro' features of the season, the same every year (or most years), which affect this division into blocks: the chaos of the two transfer windows at the beginning and the mid-point of the football year; the insane fixture congestion of December/January, and the brutally cold weather throughout the winter months; the interruptions of the international breaks; the loss of players to the African Cup of Nations or the Asian Cup in mid-season every two or four years; the appearance of Blank and Double Gameweeks at the latter end of the season, and the growing distraction of other competitions for those teams who've reached the later rounds in Europe or the domestic Cups.

Then there are some more 'micro' features that may shift from year to year: some teams have more of a 'wobble' of form in the bleak midwinter than others; some struggle more with the demands of European football, due to unfamiliarity and/or a lack of squad depth and/or being particularly unlucky with injuries; the promoted sides usually take some time to adapt to the top league, and don't start to become even moderately competitive until a third, or a half, or two-thirds of the way through the season (but can throw quite a spanner in the works when they do); some clubs may suffer unwelcome upheaval, and/or get the benefit of a 'new manager bounce' from a change of manager; and so on. Most crucially, each season is shaped by patterns in the fixtures; there are usually a few major 'turns' in fixture-difficulty, where a number of teams shift from having mostly very difficult to mostly much easier fixtures at about the same, and these can be a cue for multiple changes to an FPL squad.

It makes no sense to 'plan' for the FPL season as a whole (except insofar as you should recognise its likely 'shape', based on the factors above, and thus be mentally prepared for the likely key moments of difficulty and opportunity spread throughout it). You need to break it up into more manageable chunks, and plan your squad-building around each of those.

Constantly telling yourself that "it's a marathon" may provide some solace when a gameweek goes badly for you; but it can also be a dangerous distraction. You need to be focusing on what you're going to do to prosper over the next month or so.

[I speak as someone who's been a keen runner their whole life, and who's had some experience at all kinds of distances.

I've always been tall for my age, and when I was in Primary School I was considered quite a devastating sprinter (though, of course, this was largely because we only ever ran about 20m or 30m, and most of my peers still had the coordination of newborn foals). In my teens I discovered that I was much better suited to the middle distances: I never quite had the stamina to push hard for a full mile, but was pretty quick over 800m and 1,000m. However, I was never very serious about competition, I was more concerned with the meditative aspect of running; and so I gradually transitioned into running slower and slower, over longer and longer distances. And as I entered my forties, I became interested in taking on the challenge of running marathons - and even a few ultra-marathons. So, I have a perspective on this topic, I feel I have a deeper understanding of the metaphor than most people.]

Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 23

A few unpleasant selection surprises again this week; although, at least, not too many new injury disasters to add to our FPL troubles.

These weekly 'summaries' have been getting a bit too involved - and excessively time-consuming for me! - so I'm going to start trying to keep them briefer from here on. Let's see how that goes... [Um, not well, it would seem. I just can't help myself!!]

Perhaps I'm just unreasonably cranky this week for some reason, but I found the West Ham v Sunderland game unwatchably dull. West Ham, to be fair, are starting to show a marked improvement, but Sunderland - without the talismanic Xhaka, suddenly revealed to be suffering from an ankle injury - were miles below their best. Regis Le Bris made three changes at half-time, and the visitors looked much better after that, and the final result did rather flatter the home side. West Ham's opener was a good goal exploiting some poor defending, but the second was a fairly soft penalty award and Bowen slipped on his standing foot and was lucky not to scuff his effort wide or get a double-hit; while the third was a thirty-yard screamer out of nowhere from Matheus Fernandes just before half-time (and he almost did it again in the second-half when a similar effort smashed against the underside of the bar). There was really little incident of note apart from this, and for the most part it felt very much like a bad Championship game (I confess I gave up on watching it live half-way through the first-half!).

Burnley are continuing to show improvement, and came agonisingly close to their first win in months against Spurs - only to see a powerful diving header from Romero save a draw in the dying seconds of regulation time. Spurs showed flashes of promise with the energetic Solanke back leading their attack (Dubravka supposedly made 9 saves in the match, and was Burnley's 'best player' according to the BPS; but not many of them were significant enough to make it into the BBC highlights!), but their back line was pretty shambolic. I'd have a bet on Thomas Frank now losing the job this week. (The upcoming Champions League game against Frankfurt is really a bit of an irrelevance, since no-one expects Spurs to be able to win a knockout tie in that competition, whether it's the play-off or the Round of 16.)

Fulham v Brighton was a tight and thoroughly entertaining game (my favourite of the day: well, second only to Bournemouth v Liverpool - it can only have been scheduled last on on 'Match of the Day' because they are two such 'unfashionable' clubs), and included a pair of absolute bangers from Yasin Ayari and Harry Wilson. Even Marco Silva admitted that a draw would have been a fair result here. It was very harsh on Brighton that Wilson's free-kick would seal a late win, so soon after Danny Welbeck's excellent goal on the break had been ruled out by VAR for another of these ridiculously tight offsides (a matter of a fraction of an inch, entirely dependent on where you choose to draw 'the line' on his upper arm - and of course on whether you trust SAOT to be able to correctly determine the 'decisive moment' of ball release to within hundredths of a second).

Doku was injured (which allowed both Cherki and Semenyo to play; I doubt that will often happen), and Pep decided to rest the recently weary-looking Haaland and Foden (only bringing them on for the last 20 minutes), which gave Marmoush his first start since early in the season - an opportunity which he enthusiastically made the most of. New boys Guehi and Semenyo (who scored one, and might have had a second with a thunderous left-foot shot which clipped the far top corner of the woodwork) both had excellent games too. Wolves had a shakey start, but gradually toughened up and showed a lot of resilience and defiance after falling behind so early on; in the second-half, they even had a few chances to score themselves. Khusanov clumsily ran through the back of Mané on the edge of the box: it probably was just outside the area, but we should have had the reassurance of a VAR check to confirm exactly where the contact had occurred - and we didn't get that. City had a much stronger penalty claim when the ball caught Mosquera's outstretched arm just inside the elbow; but debutant referee Farai Hallam bravely stuck by his original decision not to make the award, rather than accepting the implicit suggestion from VAR that it had been a culpable handball - it's a pity we don't see that more often (it is shameful that he's been dropped from the roster for next gameweek, though; this looks very much like 'punishment' for going against his colleagues - even if it's not, that's what it looks like). Absolutely the right decision from the commonsense point of view: Marmoush had flicked the ball at him from very close range, perhaps deliberately looking for such a contact on the arm. The ball wasn't bound for the goal, or even for another City player; and the defender knew absolutely nothing about it. It is absurd to be giving handball penalties for incidents like this; and yet we do see them given almost every week! However, the ref's rationale that the arm had been "in a natural position" was possibly a bit dubious, as the arm was well out from the side (arguably for balance, as he lunged to attempt to block a cross; but such circumstances are usually - though possibly wrongly - judged 'handball' these days). But that whole section of the rule is a nonsense which regularly leads to confusion and inconsistency: unless the ball is goal-bound - in which case, I think, any contact on the arm should be 'strict liability', though 'position of the arm' would determine degree of culpability for a possible red card - the position of the arm should be irrelevant.  The major oddity of this match was that Donnarumma, despite being credited with only one save, got the second highest BPS total - WTF???

Ekitike was strangely left on the bench, and only came on for the last half-hour or so (Slot continues to  infuriate FPL managers by making changes just before the hour: this time Frimpong and Macallister were pulled off for Ekitike and Jones in the 58th minute, while Kerkez was switched with Roberston at half-time). Jimenez had looked well offside for Bournemouth's second goal, but SAOT eventually pronounced that he had been 'on' by the thickness of his shirtsleeve. (I'm happy enough to see a good goal stand, but... we really don't want to see decisions being made on such absurdly slim margins. And the frequent wide discrepancies between TV freeze-frames and the SAOT computer graphics of these incidents undermine viewer confidence in the system.) Liverpool are perhaps starting to pay a bit more attention to set-pieces, as they got back into the game with a near-post header by Van Dijk from a corner - although the ball looked as if it had come off Evanilson's shoulder and should have been an own-goal. Wirtz had a good cross-shot tipped just beyond the post by Petrovic near the end; and Liverpool are peeved that the ref wrongly awarded a goal-kick. But Bournemouth were coming at their visitors in waves for the last 15 minutes or so, and had been the better team in the match on balance overall - so their last-gasp winner from Adli in a goalmouth scramble felt deserved. Slot's position is looking more and more under threat; although my feeling is that he'll still be safe until the end of the season.

Forest finally seem to be recovering something of the composure behind the ball and the threat going forward which gave them such a good season last year; but they were helped in this game by a very flat performance from home side, Brentford. The opening strike should be a leading 'Goal of the Month' contender (although we've seen an awful lot of more eye-catching long-range bangers this month...), a neat move down the right covering the length of the pitch, mainly orchestrated by full-back Ola Aina, culminating in a sharp turn and half-volley by Igor Jesus.

Cole Palmer was another player whose injury problem had been played down during the week, but proved to be not even fit for the bench. Chelsea didn't do too badly without him, although Palace were very lacklustre opposition for them here, even playing in front of their home crowd. There was another odd VAR fiasco, where Darren England was eventually prompted to give a penalty against poor Jaydee Canvot by the backroom team (at least it was Chelsea's third goal, so can't be said to have had any impact on the match outcome). I really don't know what the Handball Law says any more; we seem to be discovering new bizarre wrinkles to it every week. The referee stressed that he considered the contact to be 'accidental' (that in itself is not a term that I've heard used in reference to a handball decsion.... for years), and gave that as his reason for only giving the Palace defender a yellow card (if there was 'no fault', why should there be any card at all???). However, because the ball had been goalbound, any contact on his 'arm' was deemed a strict liability offence requiring the award of a penalty. But it looked to me as if the ball hit him very high on the upper-arm, pretty much on the shoulder - which would have been an allowable contact even under the older version of the regulation, before the recent extension of the 'sleeve-line' to some nebulous point not quite half-way down the upper arm! Worst of all, the VAR playback - which the poor ref had to look at multiple times to try to get an idea of what had happened - initially only showed the worst possible view of the incident, where you really couldn't see the ball striking the defender's arm at all. Eventually, two further views were offered - which still didn't provide any very clear sight of the crucial moment of contact. We'd seen the incident from in front, from behind, and from Canvot's left side; but since it was his right arm in question, and since he'd started pulling it away from ball (and behind his body, not away from his side; he was obviously doing his best to get it out of the way of the ball) while simultaneously twisting his body in the same direction as the arm - in all of these views, his body blocked a view of the ball hitting his arm. But.... later on TV, we were shown a view of the incident from Canvot's right - where you could very clearly see that the ball had hit him up by the shoulder; WHY was this view not used for VAR???  We're seeing this kind of incompetence every week, and it undermines the whole system. And there was even more woe for Palace near the end as their crucial midfielder Adam Wharton get himself sent off for two slightly rash challenges within five minutes. At least they bundled in an injury-time consolation goal from a goalmouth scramble, but it was a pretty wretched day for Glasner's team.

Newcastle produced an uncharacteristically lifeless home performance against Villa, and were particularly flakey at times in defence - absolutely awful in allowing Watkins to ghost in at the far post for the second goal. Joelinton was perhaps a tad lucky not to receive a first-half red card for stamping on Onana's leg with an over-eager lunge of a challenge. Bruno Guimaraes, whose ankle 'knock' had initially been played down by Eddie Howe as seeming fairly trivial, but is apparently more serious, and he was sat up in the stands with his family for this one; this could be a major worry for Newcastle, as they've never managed to win a league game without him, since his arrival. Yet another banger from outside the box in this one, this time from Emi Buendia. And one absolutely outstanding save by Emi Martinez from a Miley header. And - remarkably - almost no sign of any dodgy refereeing at all!

Resurgent Manchester United finally managed to upset Arsenal's stately procession towards an increasingly inevitable-looking title, with a well-deserved win at The Emirates. It was a thrilling and open game, but the home side once again laboured to create any decent chances from open play, and looked very much second-best in almost every aspect of the game. I was disappointed that my boy Timber apparently didn't get his toe-end on Odegaard's mishit shot for the first goal (the Thai commentators I was stuck with evidently thought he had, saying his name over and over again with much delight; and none of the TV pictures seemed all that decisive that it was actually Lisandro Martinez's heel that had got the final deflection towards the goal). There were two other mild moments of controversy: Zubimendi - but, perhaps tellingly, absolutely no-one else - protested that Dorgu had controlled the ball with his left arm just before unleashing his thunderbolt from outside the box to take the lead 2-1; it looked to me as if the ball had got a trivial, non-consequential brush on the back of his arm at the same time it hit his midriff or hip; but VAR rather strangely, and worryingly, pronounced that it only found in the attacker's favour because the video evidence on this was "inconclusive" (we've seen a lot of incidents recently where the VAR team only seemed to be able to review a limited number of TV angles - and, conspicuously, not the best one that actually showed what happened!). Later, Harry Maguire deflected a low shot with his hand, but he had slipped and fallen as he lunged into an attempted block, so was only putting his hand out to the ground to break his fall; on that basis, he was certainly non-culpable, but... the shot looked goal-bound, and surely 'culpability' is not in issue there: if he prevented a likely goal, surely that should have been a penalty? Another banger of a goal from Cunha late on to clinch the points, Mbeumo's gift of an equaliser when Zubimendi played a sloppy square ball to him 30 yards out - and Arteta's decision to start with Jesus again instead of Gyokeres (although no-one really should have either of those players for FPL!) were the other rather unexpected, 'lucky' incidents in this one.

The Everton v Leeds game on Monday night was very much a 'game of two halves', with the visitors absolutely bossing the first period - they might well have taken an unassailable lead if Calvert-Lewin had been a little sharper in front of goal. Moyes, however, got his hairdryer out at half-time, and rushed just-back-from-injury Branthwaite and Dewsbury-Hall on for the second-half (at the expense of youngster Harrison Armstrong and no-longer-in-favour Dwight McNeil), which suitably re-energised his team. Relentless pressure produced a deserved equaliser from Barry, and they could have gone on to win, with their just-back-from AFCON pair both going close, Ndiaye bringing a flying save out of Darlow with an improvised prod with the outside of his right boot, and Idrissa Gueye smashing a drive against the crossbar. There seem to have been no refereeing upsets in this one either (maybe things are slowly improving with the officiating??).

The FPL 'Team of the Week' this time is actually one of the least strange we've had this season: well, none of the very 'big names' are on it, but at least everyone is a good enough player to warrant some level of FPL ownership, there's not the rash of 'complete unknowns' we've been seeing most weeks. However, it is looking likely to be yet another miserably low gameweek average, with the total being a dreadful 44 points. Apart from the 'shock' omissions of Haaland, Foden, Ekitike, and Xhaka (and the first two of these might have been reasonably anticipated; while the first three were apparently all 'leaked' in advance on social media - though only a matter of minutes before the FPL deadline!), there weren't too many selection upsets on Saturday; Sunday, though, also saw somewhat unexpected omissions (even from the bench!) for Palmer and Guimaraes. At least there have been few refereeing cock-ups (only a bad penalty award against Palace, a possibly wrongly attributed goal for Van Dijk, and a couple of very tight, rather dubious offside decisions: one goal allowed, one disallowed - both probably wrongly). West Ham's and Bournemouth's wins were rather unexpected, and Fulham's rather lucky; but the games have gone mostly as might have been expected. This is perhaps one of the least freaky gameweeks we've had this season, only a 4 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.

Dilemmas of the Week - GW 23 (25/26)

It looks as though the midwinter injury onslaught may be slackening off a little at last, as remarkably few new problems seem to have emerged during the past week. However, it seems likely at this time of the year that a number of players are carrying 'hidden' injuries of some sort, and may be well below their best. Team form is certainly all over the place at the moment, and it's very difficult to assess relative fixture-difficulty or anticipate match outcomes with any confidence. Moreover, Liverpool, City, Spurs, Newcastle and Chelsea are not yet assured of automatic qualification for the final phase of the Champions League, so might get tempted to rest key players ahead of the crucial last ties of the league phase next week. Palace and Forest, after their disappointing European results this week, also face massive games next week to guarantee their progression. Even if these looming European crunch matches don't affect player selection this weekend, they might be an unwelcome distraction in the players' minds. These are amongst the many reasons why it's a dreadful week to be considering playing any of the chips in!

I am trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 23?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

No clear details have yet been anounced regarding the knee injury that forced John McGinn off against Everton last week (looked like a cartilage problem to me); Emery has said it's not too serious, but could keep him out for a few weeks at least - and that will likely have a big negative impact on the team as a whole, since he had been so crucial to Villa's strong performances at the end of last year.

Marcus Tavernier pulled a hamstring against Brighton last week.

Tosin Adarabioyo's withdrawal against Brentford last weekend because of hamstring tightness was initially described as 'precautionary', but it now seems he's going to be ruled out for some weeks. Filip Jorgensen had to come off in the midweek game against Pafos after a knock, although he was unlikely to be replacing Robert Sanchez as the league starter anyway. Cole Palmer was complaining again of discomfort in his thigh after the Brentford game and was subsequently omitted against Pafos.

Leeds defender Gabriel Gudmundsson (a surprisingly popular pick in FPL, with over 4% ownership) has been suffering with leg muscle problems in training this week, and seems likely to miss today's game against Fulham.

Jeremy Doku and Nathan Ake were apparently omitted from the line-up in the shocking defeat by Bodo/Glimt on Tuesday because they felt problems during the warm-up, and are thus presumably very doubtful for this weekend. (At least that should mean that both Semenyo and Cherki can start....)

Bruno Guimaraes came off against PSV on Wednesday after suffering a knock to his ankle. It doesn't sound very serious, but he is a 'yellow flag' for the weekend.

Ben Davies broke his ankle in an unfortunate collision at West Ham last week, and will likely miss the rest of the season. Lucas Bergvall suffered a less serious ankle injury in the midweek game against Dortmund, looks set to be out for some weeks. I think Thomas Frank's been doing an awful job at Spurs; but you have to sympathise with his difficulties, now having 6 or 7 likely preferred starters sidelined long-term. At least Dominic Solanke was finally able to make a comeback against Dortmund - although there must be doubts about whether he's yet fit enough to play 90 minutes twice in succession.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Michael Keane is this week serving the last part of his three-match 'violent conduct' ban for hair-pulling.

Matheus Cunha had a good impact off the bench last week; but it's difficult to see how he's going to earn a regular start in the formation Carrick seems to want to play. Benjamin Sesko was another casualty of the new broom - although at least his pace and height may recommend him for certain fixtures (Arsenal this week?!), with Mbeumo probably moving to the right (at the expense of Diallo) to accommodate him occasionally as the No. 9.

Rob Edwards has said he intends to include Jørgen Strand Larsen 'in the squad' against City, despite his having just become the subject of a transfer bid; it might however be rather doubtful if he'll actually start in these circumstances (and Mané and Arokodare are starting to look like more than adequate substitutes for him anyway).

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Rodri had a rare stinker against Bodo/Glimt in midweek; as did the whole City team, really. But you have to be wary of a 'wounded tiger'. City really need a 'statement win' now to restore confidence after a string of shakey performances, and I imagine they'll be fired up to try to give Wolves a proper spanking. (I wouldn't bet against Wolves to nick at least one goal off them, though.)

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Well, I've been particularly glad to see Ben White back as the Arsenal right-back, and he was excellent last week; but, alas, he seems to have fallen somewhat out of favour with Mikel, and there must be doubts about whether he'll keep the start once Calafiori and Hincapie are available again. Karl Darlow, stepping up to replace the recently struggling Lucas Perri in goal for Leeds, had a very good game against Fulham. He's probably not good enough to get in anyone's FPL squad purely on merit (and there may be some doubts about how long he'll keep the start), but, at only 3.9 million pounds currently, he is looking like a very tempting 'budget-enabler' (much more so than the long-time favourite in that slot, Martin Dubravka; more expensive, and not in such convincing form recently).

And of course, Manchester United appear to be immediately transformed, their 'true potential' unlocked by Michael Carrick. Bruno Fernandes has been a top midfield pick for quite a while already, but he now faces competition - within his club quota! - from Bryan Mbeumo and Amad Diallo in midfield, and also from Patrick Dorgu (a goalscoring defender is always nice to have) and Harry Maguire (he's finally back???).

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

More ways to SELF-DESTRUCT

 

The FPL forums have been awash with nutters talking about using their second Wildcard this week. Yes, in Gameweek 22, barely three weeks into the New Year! Does THE MADNESS know no end??!!

The reasons why this is an overwhelmingly BAD IDEA ought to be obvious to anyone who has played the game for more than a few years

They are as follows:

1)  For any chip, there is more risk in using it earlier in its period of availability rather than later. During half a season, there will usually be at least a few, possibly several reasonable - perhaps pressing - occasions to potentially use a chip. And some of these may crop up unexpectedly, at little or no notice: you don't know they're going to happen until they happen. Thus, the later you can leave it to play a chip, the more confident you can be that there won't any longer be a better occasion to use it arising later on.

2) The general 'leaving it later' principle above is particularly true with the Wildcard because it is a 'rebuild chip' which allows you to make substantial and lasting changes to your squad, rather than just a one-off switcheroo to allow you to earn extra points in a single gameweek like all the others. It is potentially so valuable that it really should not be thrown away lightly, at the first sign of any difficulty in your squad. You tend to accumulate need for a Wildcard over time, as drop-offs in form and injuries and suspensions progressively weaken your squad. If things look bad this week, they might be even worse in another week or two!

3)  A crisis requiring a Wildcard to rectify it can also arise very suddenly: it is not uncommon to pick up 4, 5, 6 or even more injuries (or suspensions, or fallings-out-of-favour with the manager) inside a week or two. That is the kind of catastrophe for which you may need your Wildcard. And they can occur at any time (although they tend to become more common in the final third of the season...).

4)  Although this threshold will decrease slightly later in the season, you don't really want to be considering a Wildcard unless you have a case for making at least 5 or 6 urgent changes to your squad. If players aren't unavailable - through being injured, dropped, transferred out, suspended, etc. - it's never absolutely urgent to replace them, it's simply 'elective'. You should be able to carry under-performing players on your bench for a week or three, while you stock up more Free Transfers for a 'mini-Wildcard' shake-up. You can even sometimes take a chance on leaving a few 'holes' on your bench (hang on to non-playing assets) for a little while. And if an immediate change seems likely to be particularly valuable to you, it's OK to take a 'hit' - spend the extra points on it - a few times a season. Blowing a Wildcard for only 3 or 4 - non-urgent! - changes is A COMPLETE WASTE.

5)  At the moment, no-one should have such an urgent case for multiple squad changes. Although there have been a lot of injuries over the past month or so, mercifully, so far none of these have affected any of the really 'big' players: Josko Gvardiol is the only high-owned FPL asset who's been ruled out for a long spell. Moreover, we all just enjoyed an extra 'mini-Wildcard' this year, with the unnecessary additional transfers doled out for AFCON barely a month ago. If you used those sensibly to strengthen your squad during December (or saved at least some of them to allow yourselves a few extra transfers during the injury-ravaged month of January...), there should be absolutely no need to consider multiple squad revisions - or any at all! - just now.

6)  You don't want to be using a Wildcard at a time where there is more than usual uncertainty about what's going on in the Premier League, and perhaps an imminent possibility of significant changes in the FPL player-comparison landscape. And that is very much the case at the moment, in late January. The mid-season transfer window doesn't close for another 11 days, and there's usually a late rush of activity right before the final deadline (this year, on the evening of February the 2nd); some players might yet leave the Premier League altogether, some new big names might join from overseas. And even if you don't fancy any of the new arrivals themselves, you need to be mindful of the disruptive effect they can have on team selections and playing styles, of the possible knock-on consequences for players you do own, or might like to own. These impacts will not make usually themselves fully felt until at least a few weeks after a new player has joined - or left - a club; so, for this reason alone, it is utterly, utterly DAFT to consider using the Wildcard before the second half of February, at the very earliest.

7)  Quite apart from the upheaval of the transfer window, we are deep in the 'midwinter doldrums' now: almost every team is suffering poor or fluctuating form, most players are obviously getting tired or jaded, and many are probably carrying some sort of niggling injury. A crop of new more serious injuries is arriving every week. If you use the Wildcard now, there is an elevated risk that most or all of your new selections might lose form or become unavailable altogether within a few weeks: that is why you shouldn't use it in January. 

8)  There are also some more particular factors affecting the overall player-comparison landscape just at the moment. The five main ones are: a) additional upheaval caused by the turnover of managers around this time of year (Maresca and Amorim have just been replaced; Glasner had looked likely to go, but might survive; Frank looks under extreme threat, Dyche, Espirito Santo, and possibly even Howe also at some risk); b) the immediate and dramatic improvement displayed by Manchester United on being freed from the shackles of Ruben Amorim; c) the upturn in form and fighting spirit starting to be shown by all the clubs at the bottom of the table, making relative 'fixture difficulty' much more difficult to assess; d) the return of AFCON players (most of the more popular FPL choices went deep into the tournament and have only just rejoined their clubs; Senegal and Morocco were in the final last Sunday, and it is not clear if - probably rather unlikely that - their players will be back, or able to be immediately reintegrated into their club sides this weekend); e) the conundrum of Cole Palmer (and perhaps also of Mo Salah and Ollie Watkins); he's playing again at last, and faces a short run of fairly 'easy'-looking fixtures over the next month or so; many FPL managers are bringing him in just because of this enticing fixture-run - but that's almost certainly dangerously premature. He's still being troubled by recurring muscular discomfort, and is obviously a long way short of full stamina and match sharpness (he looked absolutely exhausted at the end of last week's game against Brentford, and he hadn't even been all that 'busy' in it - compared to his usual all-action standards); he isn't yet anywhere near his best, and looks like he might take at least a few more weeks to get there. If/when he does, he'll almost certainly be worth having; but because he's so expensive, that's probably going to require at least three or four transfers - not just one - to accomplish, to reallocate budget around a squad. The only other 'premium' players this season - Salah, Watkins, and Saka - might present a similar dilemma; we know they have the potential to make an enormous FPL contribution - but they haven't been doing so thus far; as soon as that changes, we may want them again,... and we may need to make multiple changes in one gameweek to achieve that. (You don't necessarily need a Wildcard to make these changes; in fact, you really shouldn't. But the point here is that there are a number of likely circumstances that might make you want to make substantial changes to your squad again in the near future - and these might undo many of the changes you've just made with your silly, premature Wildcard.)

Now do you see???

And, oh gawd, some people are talking about using their Bench Boost too. There's a much simpler argument against that. With so much injury, fatigue, and important European and domestic Cup games cramping the schedule at the moment, and thus a heightened rate of unpredictable player rotations - you can't count on anyone being a guaranteed starter at the moment; and thus it's very unlikely that all 15 of your squad will start (which is the bare minimum criterion for considering a Bench Boost play). Also, just about no-one has a really strong bench at the moment (you usually have to use some saved transfers or a chip to 'set up' an optimum squad to get a really good Bench Boost return). And, even if this weekend's games were happening in less unsettled February or March, it still wouldn't be a good gameweek for a Bench Boost: there just aren't that many attractive fixture match-ups!!!

People considering either of these chip plays this week (or, good grief, yes, the Triple Captain or Free Hit too), are just BORED, IMPATIENT, or DEPRESSED (taking the recent run of terrible gameweek returns too personally: wake up, people, it's been SHIT for everyone lately!!), and looking to cheer themselves up with a whacky and impulsive move. All you are doing, my friends, is shooting yourselves in the foot. You'll get no decent advantage from these chips this week; and you will soon be ruing your choice when an obviously much better - or more necessary - occasion to use them comes along.

A little bit of Zen (78)

 

"The superior man is distressed only by the limitations of his ability. He is not distressed by the fact that other men do not recognise the ability that he has."

Kong Qiu ('Confucius')

More TACTICS!

 

The informative tactical analyst and football historian DK Falcon doesn't seem to have been posting that much on Youtube lately (not that I've noticed, anyway....), but this interesting piece popped up last weekend. 

In it he outlines the recent major evolutions in top-level football tactics, explaining how the aggressive high press (the 'Gegenpress' developed in Germany in the early 2010s, and brought to England by Jurgen Klopp) was in part a dialectic response to the refined style of controlled possession inspired by Barcelona's 'tiki-taka'; and then in turn the 'press-baiting' approach (being prepared to play the ball around across the back indefinitely, ostentatiously putting your foot on the ball to defy the opposition to try to take it off you, and keeping your back line ultra-deep, sometimes even playing to and fro practically on the goal-line itself - to try to draw the first line of pressure high into the penalty area and expose an inviting gap behind it) and new ways of playing through the high press pioneered by Roberto de Zerbi were a response to this; and now the rapid growth of 'hybrid pressing' (combining elements of zonal marking and man-marking to produce greater flexibility, and enabling rapid transition from high press to mid-block modes) is a reponse to that.

And what's next after that?? Well, maybe something radically different - not just another counter-measure to the prevailing norms, but a new tactical idea that truly breaks the mould. By coincidence, Conor McAinsh's Football Meta published this video at about the same time, breaking down the innovative style of José Alberto's Racing Santander - currently top of the heap in La Segunda in Spain.

Alberto's approach is a kind of extreme 'relationism', largely shunning conventional structures and demanding a great deal of flexibility from his players to constantly rotate positions with each other and improvise their way out of difficulties. The essence of it is to mob the opponent on the ball, closing off all his passing options as quickly as possible; this typically involves concentrating most of the outfield players in a fairly small area, and often putting the entire team in the same half of the pitch. The advantage of this is that it does put the opponent under enormous pressure, with a huge numerical advantage around the ball; and if a turnover is achieved, the wide open spaces left elsewhere on the pitch can be exploited for a swift counter-attack. However, it is necessarily a tactic of high reward/high risk: if the opponent manages to elude this press, he usually has one or more unmarked players in acres of space, especially on the opposite flank, and is even better placed to launch a devastating fast attack. [Fernando Diniz enjoyed some success for a while with a similar system at Fluminense in Brazil a few years ago. The Purist Football did a good video on this back then.]

Too much of a 'good thing'??

I mentioned last week that there was probably an 'expanded' version of the FPL rules hidden away somewhere, because.... there are certain lacunae, certain points not covered in the rather brief rules published on the main FPL webpages. 

One such area of mystery is the issue of what happens if you inadvertently exceed the normal club quota of three players from any one Premier League side - through having someone transfer in to a club you already hold three players from.

That's happening to quite a lot of people at the moment, with the very popular Antoine Semenyo and Marc Guehi both accepting January moves to Manchester City - from whom, in addition to the inescapable Erling Haaland, Nunes, O'Reilly, Doku, Cherki, Foden, Reijnders, and Donnarumma are all fairly common selections.

I don't think this has ever happened to me, but it's not such an uncommon phenomenon. What appears to happen is that you're allowed your suddenly over-quota line-up of 4 (or even 5 or 6 or whatever...) players until you next make a transfer; but as soon as you want to make any changes to your squad, you have to begin by reducing your holding from that club back to the regular maximum of 3 players.

Straightforward enough, really; except that I have no idea if this rule is actually stated in print anywhere. It seems to be something you just have to learn through experience.

And because of that lack of clarity on the issue in the 'basic rules', all sorts of bizarre notions start to circulate online about this situation. I saw a chap on a forum the other day insisting that you're allowed to have more than 3 players in your squad in these circumstances, but not allowed to put more than 3 in your starting eleven.... NOT SO!

Of course, the real mystery here is WHY anyone would already have 3 City players. Donnarumma is nowhere near the best keeper pick for FPL (and is prohibitively expensive), Foden has become unproductive again after his insane two-week points splurge at the start of December, and the other midfielders - including Semenyo, for now, at least - and probably O'Reilly too, are all minutes risks.

Guehi is likely to be an immediate and regular starter, at least while Dias and Gvardiol are injured; but I would rather have waited a week or two to see if that really would be the case, and to see how well he'd settle in at the new club, before making a decision about retaining or acquiring him.

If I'd suddenly found myself with 5 Manchester City players, I'd probably take this odd stroke of Fate as a prompting to get rid of 3 or 4 of them as soon as possible. But, of course, it is unfortunate to have to make even 2 'forced' transfers as a result of this obscure little rules glitch.

Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 22

As I said last week, the great, inevitable winter downturn in form continues on and on through the shitty weather and cramped fixture schedules of January and February - and now even has an added sprinkle of further uncertainty and confusion from the mid-season transfer window.  In a season of almost nothing but awful gameweeks, this one looks like it could be competing to become the worst of the worst. Almost everyone looks leggy and jaded, form is all over the place. Fulham losing to Leeds and Spurs losing (at home!) to West Ham were perhaps not entirely surprising, but United winning so comfortably against a lacklustre City was, and Sunderland beating Palace and Arsenal and Liverpool being held to draws by bottom-of-the-table sides were even more so.

A few surprises in Michael Carrick's first selection, with Dorgu being retained as an attacking player (though back on the left, rather than the right - where he had unexpectedly thrived in a couple of experimental run-outs under the the last days of Ruben Amorim), Shaw and Maguire coming back into the back-four (at the expense of Leny Yoro) alongside Martinez and Dalot, Sesko being dropped at centre-forward in favour of just-back-from AFCON Mbeumo, and Mainoo slotting in alongside Casemiro in the midfield engine-room (that one not so surprising - although he looked just a little ring-rusty, after being frozen out of competitive football for so long, his swift turns away from a pressing opponent were as useful as ever). Pep dropped Cherki for Semenyo, but the new boy struggled to make any impact in this one; and Matheus Nunes had apparently gone down with 'flu, so Rico Lewis had to deputise for him at right-back. It was one of the most entertaining lunchtime games we've seen this season, although it threatened for quite a while to be a thrilling nil-nil: both teams playing some slick football and progressing the ball quickly, but struggling to find the necessary incisveness when they got near the opposition penalty box. United, however, were having all the most dangerous moments: Donnarumma came out like a thunderbolt to clear Alleyne's weak back-pass off the toes of Dorgu and Mbeumo early on, made good saves from Dorgu and Diallo (and another save from Diallo at the beginning of the second-half, followed by a double-block on Casemiro's attempt to follow up), saw Maguire smash a close-range header from a corner against the cross-bar just a few minutes in, and was relieved that quick breaks in behind from Amad Diallo and Bruno Fernandes  - who were both able to get round him rather easily and coolly slot home into an empty net - were shown a late flag for tight-ish offsides (Amad's looked like a matter of only 6 or 8 inches, Bruno's more like 18 inches or so); another moment of panic was uncannily redeemed by super-fast reactions from Khusanov to steal the ball off Mbeumo when a misplaced pass on the edge of the City box had gifted the ball to Bruno who was able to square it to his striker in acres of space. Pep made the harsh decision to sub young Max Alleyne at half-time (shunting Ake into central defence from the left and restoring Nico O'Reilly to the left-back slot), but that did nothing to stop the rot, and it began to seem inevitable that United would eventually find a breakthrough - as they eventually did with a lightning three-man counter-attack confidently finished by Mbeumo. Cunha, brought on to replace Mbeumo after 70 minutes, also looked lively in his cameo, and set up Dorgu for a second after just a few minutes on the pitch; and shortly afterwards another fast break from Diallo - on the left this time! - ended with him lashing a shot against the post. Late substitute Mason Mount appeared to have made the margin even more decisive in added-on time, but a long VAR check eventually decided that Cunha had been very narrowly offside when running on to the initial through-ball. City, somehow, were misfiring in almost every single aspect of their game here (well, apart from the goalkeeping), and were really pretty fortunate not to go down 5-0. United fans are justifiably ecstatic - though they'll probably now be questioning even more why they didn't ditch Amorim last summer. City fans might perhaps console themselves with the 'what if' that the game might have turned out very differently if Dalot had been sent off, as he really should have been in the opening minutes, when his clumsy follow-through on Doku raked studs down the side of the winger's knee with sufficient force to bend his leg dangerously inwards - very lucky to inflict only a painful bruise rather than season-ending ligament damage.

Chelsea were able to field their 'best 11' for the first time in a while (although Palmer still looked somewhat short of full match fitness, and was completely drained by the end), but still their ultimately quite comfortable win was a little bit of a surprise, given the strength of Brentford's recent form. Somehow, though, the visitors didn't bring their best game this time, and despite having a slight majority of possession, they couldn't do much with it; all their best chances fell to Schade rather than Thiago, and the German just hadn't brought his scoring boots with him. Chelsea should also have had a penalty early on, when a defender clipped Joao Pedro's heel in the box; not a very strong contact, but completely clearcut - Pedro's rather theatrical dive probably worked against him (well, that and the fact that Chelsea just never get penalties any more!.... although they did in fact get a rare award here in the second-half, comfortably despatched by Palmer). At least VAR was doing its job for once, correcting the linesman's rash decision that Joao Pedro had been offside for his well-taken opening goal (it was tight, but he was pretty clearly onside, even to the naked eye). Chelsea weren't really all that good, but they were good enough to prevail over a misfiring opponent.

Liverpool v Burnley started out a fairly drab and scrappy affair, but slowly warmed up. Gakpo earned possibly the softest penalty of the year so far by walking into a Burnley defender and falling over. Szoboszlai, now claiming the penalty duties (why is not Ekitike??), was perhaps so embarrassed by this decision that he smashed his spot-kick against the cross-bar. Liverpool started to get on top after this, and Florian Wirtz ended up having his best league game for the club yet - smashing in a goal very emphatically from 15 yards out, having another decent effort soon after, and playing in Gakpo for an attempt that had to be cleared off the line by Humphreys. Burnley, though, kept plugging away, and their excellent winner from winger Marcus Edwards felt well-deserved. Indeed, they might have snuck away with a win if Konate's latest lapse had proven costly: shortly before the Burnley goal, the increasingly clumsy-looking defender had prodded a low cross from Edwards powerfully towards his own goal - demanding an outstanding save from Alisson to preserve the tenuous lead. Liverpool piled on the pressure over the last 20 or 30 minutes, but couldn't break their obstinate visitors down - although Ekitike had an apparent late winner rightly ruled out for offside (and a possible handball too), and then somehow failed to get a touch when unmarked at the far post as Curtis Jones's fiercely driven square ball (mishit shot??) whizzed past the end of his toe.

Lucas Perri was replaced in goal by Karl Darlow, after a few shakey performances of late. Daniel Farke might have wished he could replace his whole team, as this game against Fulham was a dour, lifeless encounter that had 0-0 written all over it from the outset. The recently on-fire Brenden Aaronson and Harry Wilson had the only two decent half-chances in the match, but both failed to get their efforts on target. A late breakaway by Ampadu down the right set up substitute Nmecha for a superb goal just as we entered stoppage time at the end of the game; and the German forward nearly made it a brace a minute or two later, when his fierce shot after a solo break down the left brought an excellent save out of Leno.

Mavropanos, who looked as if he had suffered a serious head and/or neck injury in the FA Cup last week, was fit to start after all, and produced a very good looping header that forced Vicario into a flying save in the first-half. Spurs suffered another injury blow when Ben Davies had to leave the pitch with a serious leg injury after just a quarter of an hour, while new signing Conor Gallagher made an immediate start, but failed to have much of an impact - in a game which West Ham were able to dominate for long periods. The home side came out with much more cohesion and purpose in the second-half, and were able to get back on terms through a powerful Romero header. Indeed, they looked like they should have been able to take charge of the game, with Areola being forced into saves from powerful efforts by Bissouma and Simons; and they feel they might have had a penalty when the ball touched Scarles's hand (I don't know how the no-penalty decision was justified under the current labyrinthine guidelines, but it seemed fair enough to me: the ball barely brushed his fingertips, and he knew absolutely nothing about it as the ball was played on to him by the Spurs player from only inches away). But flapper Vicario yet again allowed himself to get boxed in at a corner, and substitute Callum Wilson was able to lash home an injury-time winner. Another disastrous home result had the fans baying for Thomas Frank's dismissal at the final whistle, and I fear his position at the club has surely now become untenable.

Sunderland were re-energized by the return of Sadiki and Reinildo from AFCON, but visiting Palace still had the better of first phase of the game - not notably discombobulated by the sudden loss of Marc Guehi or by Oliver Glasner's shock announcement on Friday of his intention to leave the club at the end of the season. Unfortunately, Yeremy Pino's neat opening goal was almost immediately cancelled out by Le Fee, and in the second-half the home team increasingly asserted themselves until another goal became inevitable; indeed, they really should have had a penalty when Romaine Mundle was barged in the back by Justin Devenny. Adam Wharton might have been a bit lucky to escape a second yellow card as well. Unfortunately, the game itself was soon overshadowed by Glasner's glum comments afterwards, complaining at feeling his team has been "abandoned" by the club's ownership (he seemed especially aggrieved at the failure to at least hang on to Eze and Guehi a bit longer, to try to delay their transfers to squeeze one or two more games out of them, but that's probably not a realistic demand; his bigger gripe is surely the failure to promptly bring in adequate replacements, which left him with a threadbare bench this week). This surely signals that he'll depart the club this week rather than at season's end - an unfortunate loss to the English game (unless he perhaps takes the Spurs job??).

Accumulating defensive injuries at Arsenal have finally given Ben White a route back to the starting place that was his right a couple of seasons ago - but for how long? Arteta also brought in Martinelli (who put the only decent chance of the first-half agonisingly just an inch or two wide of the far post) for the recently prolific Trossard (but swapped them back at half-time, which can't be likely to boost the confidence of either player), and - a rare occurrence indeed! - rested Saka (no doubt to the chagrin of many FPL managers, quite a few of whom might have made him captain for this fixture) in favour of Madueke, while giving the seemingly 'out of favour' Eze a scant 10 minutes at the end. Saka and Merino, though, got on for the last half-hour or so (at the expense of Madueke and Gyokeres, denied full appearance points), and Saka produced the best effort of the game - a towering header that brought a flying fingertip save from Sels. Forest, much improved on recent lifeless performances, had the best of the game for the most part, and did a good job of frustrating their visitors - who may have been feeling a bit of extra pressure from the fact that they unexpectedly had a chance to extend their lead in the title race. A mostly rather dull and uneventful match was distinguished by the oddity of having 2 dubiously turned-down penalties: Hudson-Odoi was pulled/tripped by Timber on the edge of the area, but both the referee and the VAR team somehow concluded that the 'decisive moment' of the illegal contact had occurred a fraction of an inch short of the line (I think absolutely everyone in the stadium, including the Arsenal fans, must have thought it was a penalty!); but then the balance of injustice was perhaps restored later in the game when Aina clearly handled the ball in an attempt to keep it in play, but this was somehow excused on the 'natural position for the arm' clause (oh yes, if you're trying to keep the ball from crossing the line, you naturally move the crook of your elbow towards it!).

In a gameweek of almost entirely limp matches, Wolves v Newcastle was undoubtedly the limpest. Usually 0-0s result from sterling defensive performances, but here neither keeper earned 'saves' points, and only Mosquera earned 'defensive points' (no-one else came anywhere near). The only decent effort in the game came from Wolves's explosive teenager Mateus Mané, whose cute over-the-shoulder volley from 10 yards out unfortunately went straight down the middle into Pope's arms. Newcastle were fortunate that Trippier and Botman were fit again to plug the gaps in their defence, and Trippier might have been 'Man of the Match' - curling a free-kick into the outside of the side-netting, and putting in a sublime cross early in the game that Woltemade somehow failed to make contact with. (And he was playing through some discomfort, as Mané had accidentally stamped on his forehead early on, leaving him with a deep cut across the bridge of his nose.) Woltemade, Tonali, and Gordon were all taken off in the 65th minute: reasonable enough, since they weren't having much impact in this stalemate of a game - and at least they got their minimum FPL 'appearance points' from the outing. The main takeaway from this one is that Rob Edwards has finally got Wolves playing like a side who don't deserve to go down: they're still a long way from great, but at least they're now showing some confidence and cohesion, and are becoming tougher to beat.

Of all the slumps in form we've seen this week, Villa's was perhaps the most dramatic and alarming. They dominated possession against visitors Everton, but really weren't able to do anything much with the ball. All the best chances fell to Morgan Rogers, who managed to miss them all badly (apart from one good curled effort from distance near the end, which might have been just sneaking under the bar, until Pickford flew across his goal to tip it over). Their closest chance was actually a miscued header from Guessand which deceived Pickford and looped on to the face of the crossbar behind him. Ollie Watkins was so anonymous in this game that I had to double-check the match reports to see if he'd even been playing: absolutely zero mentions in the commentary, and just about zero touches of the ball! Villa also lost the inspirational John McGinn, who limped off the pitch early on with what looked like it might be a knee-cartilage problem. And in a mostly fairly glum, uneventful match where neither side created much scoring threat, they managed to give a goal away with a dreadful double error: Pau Torres's miscontrol giving the ball away just outside his own box, and then Martinez spilling Dwight McNeil's weak curled effort right at the feet of a surprised and grateful Thierno Barry. Jake O'Brien had also headed home from a short-corner routine, but Harrison Armstrong was adjudged to have been offside at the edge of the six-yard box as Garner played the ball in. (This again was a rather unsatisfying decision. The TV picture kept freezing the frame as Garner was beginning to swing his foot at the ball. At this point, Armstrong was clearly a foot or so behind the line of the defenders - but he was already stepping back towards an onside postion as the defenders were quckly dropping deeper, so their relative positions changed dramatically within one or two tenths of a second. And it really wasn't clear when Garner's foot had made contact with the ball... or when that contact finished, as he was playing a gentle scooped cross with a fairly prolonged contact on the ball: this was actually a very, very tight decision, and a few frames of the video playback could have made all the difference. It would have been reassuring to see an official SAOT graphic to justify this call - since this technology can supposedly identify the 'exact' moment a pass is struck via a sensor inside the ball - but none was forthcoming.) And the visitors had come close to nicking what might have been one of the three or four fastest goals in Premier League history when a long-ball from Pickford reached baby-faced midfielder Merlin Röhl who cracked off an early shot from the edge of the box; he didn't make particularly good contact with it, but it caught Martinez by surprise and eluded his dive, rolling against the foot of the far post... just under 11 seconds from the opening whistle. (It would have been nice to see that go in, just for the little bit of history.)

Monday night's south coast derby between Brighton and Bournemouth might have been the most entertaining fixture of the gameweek - although that's not saying much. Brighton had 'rested' three of their most crucial players, Baleba, Rutter, and Minteh, and although making a lively and dangerous start to the game, soon allowed their visitors to start taking control. Adli's fall in the penalty area at the end of a swift break led by Tavernier was initially judged a 'dive' by Paul Tierney, but for once VAR proved useful in showing that Verbruggen had indeed touched his feet as he grasped vainly for the ball. It's interesting to see that after Semenyo's departure and Kluivert's injury, Tavernier is now on penalty-taking duties, and looking very confident in the role. Bournemouth were then all over the home side for the last part of the first-half, with Evanilson beating Verbruggen with a neat dink but seeing the ball come back off the inside of the far post, and then putting a header inches wide. Brighton reasserted control in the second-half, however, and began looking particularly dangerous after the belated introduction of their three star performers in the 66th minute. However, a resolute Bournemouth managed to defy them until teen substitute Kostoulous came up with a bicycle-kick goal at the beginning of added-on time. A good game - apparently unmarred by refereeing cock-ups (almost unique this gameweek).

Yes, once again it's a super-weird FPL 'Team of the Week'; of the preliminary line-up after Saturday's matches only Bruno Fernandes, Dorgu and Chalobah had much of an FPL ownership (and the latter two not that much); the only subsequent change was that Chalobah got bumped out by Thiaw. There was a dearth of goals (the 10th lowest-scoring gameweek in Premier League history!), almost all of the most fancied FPL players came up blank, and pretty nearly all of the results confounded expectations. In a season of miserably low gameweek averages this week's figure of 40 points is almost a new nadir! Also, there were 5 penalties probably wrongly not given (2 in the same game!), and 1 wrongly given (and missed!), a couple of red cards missed, a slightly dubious disallowed 'offside' goal for Everton, and a fair old welter of near-misses and efforts against the woodwork; also some unwelcome selection surprises, and generally sub-standard performances from almost everyone - this is again looking like about an 8 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter' for this gameweek.

Dilemmas of the Week - GW 22 (25/26)

 

We've had a little break from Premier League action for the past 9 days; but of course, everyone was involved in FA Cup ties last weekend, and 4 clubs also had the first leg of their League Cup Semi-Finals this week. So, there have been some further injuries since the last EPL Gameweek, on top of the heavy crop we suffered in that first batch of 2026 games. Also, the January transfer window is starting to cause a little bit of turmoil - with Manchester City looking set to poach all the players that their rivals most covet, and that the better mid-table sides most rely on.

I am trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 22?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Arsenal lost another defender when Piero Hincapie limped out of the GW21 clash with Liverpool with some kind of leg-muscle injury. And as there's still no sign of Calafiori being able to return, this presumably means that Myles Lewis-Skelly or Ben White (with Timber switching to the left) could finally get a run of starts. When we see which of those options Arteta goes with, this might be a tempting cheaper route into extra representation from the Arsenal defence.

Villa's midfield lynchpin Boubacar Kamara had to come off in the FA Cup game against Leeds with a knee injury - which might keep him out for a while. And Emi Martinez came off during the last league game against Palace; apparently it's a calf-strain this time, rather than another instance of his recurring back problem - but he's still a doubt for this weekend.

Justin Kluivert has had to have a knee surgery which has probably put an end to his season. And back-up striker Enes Unal has picked up a leg-muscle problem which will sideline him for at least the rest of this month.

Jordan Henderson rolled his ankle badly in the FA Cup game against Sheffield Wednesday, but his subsequent withdrawal in that game was said to be just 'precautionary', and Keith Andrews is hopeful that he'll be OK for the visit to Chelsea.

Jamie Gittens and Liam Delap missed Wednesday's League Cup game against Arsenal because of an illness (though, for my money, Delap hasn't been looking good enough lately to earn a start ahead of Guiu, let alone Joao Pedro). And Malo Gusto and Reece James missed both this week's Cup games because of training knocks - but are expected/hoped to be OK again for this weekend. Cole Palmer also missed these last two games with a thigh muscle problem, although Liam Rosenior hopes it was fairly minor and won't keep him out any longer.

Everton's Tim Iroegbunam missed last week's FA Cup tie against Sunderland with a knock.

Conor Bradley collapsed near the end of the last league game against Arsenal with a serious knee injury; apparently he has not suffered ACL damage, but has needed surgery - and might miss the remainder of the season.

Fabian Schar suffered a serious ankle injury in the last league game against Leeds, and has needed surgery; he'll be lucky to return for the last few games of the season. Tino Livramento then suffered another hamstring strain in the FA Cup against Bournemouth and seems likely to be out for some time. It seems that Sven Botman may be rushed back into service alongside Thiaw in central defence, and Lewis Miley will have to continue to serve as a makeshift right-back: this is not promising for Newcastle's prospects in a fairly testing run of fixtures over the next month or so.

Forest goalkeeper John Victor somehow injured his knee (in the act of conceding their third goal against Villa in GW21, rashly charging 30 yards up the pitch to leave his goal empty); it's not clear what the problem is, but it's taking some time to resolve - so Matz Sels seems likely to step back between the posts (probably a more reliable choice anyway!).

Bertrand Traore returned early from AFCON after picking up an unspecified injury; so, he's back with Sunderland now, but it's unclear if he'll be available to play this week.

Lucas Bergvall and Rodrigo Betancur both had to come off with leg-muscle injuries in the GW21 loss to Bournemouth, while Richarlison pulled a hamstring in last weekend's FA Cup defeat by Villa.

Konstantinos Mavropanos had to be stretchered off in the FA Cup tie against QPR after getting caught in the back of the head by an opponent's knee as he was falling to the ground. It was at first feared that he might have suffered a serious neck injury; that seems not to be the case, fortunately, but it is likely he also suffered a heavy concussion, so will surely miss a week or two for that alone.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Michael Keane is serving a three-match ban for 'violent conduct' (although he's got the first one out of the way already in last week's FA Cup game), after his silly tug on Tolu Arokodare's braids. Fortunately, Nathan Patterson is ready to come back in at right-back, so Jake O'Brien can probably be slotted into central defence alongside Tarkowski - but Everton are stretched a bit thin at the back, with Coleman and Branthwaite still unavailable.

Manchester United's teenage winger Shea Lacey has a one-match ban after picking up two yellow cards in quick succession in the FA Cup tie against Brighton.

Oleks Zinchenko is on loan from Arsenal, so can't represent Forest against his parent club this week.

Oliver Glasner has said that Marc Guehi will not play for Palace this weekend, as a transfer away is being finalised. (Looks like City have landed him.)  Presumably, Jaydee Canvot - or perhaps Jefferson Lerma, who has played a few times on the right of the back-three - will step into his slot. But Palace too are looking very stretched in defence now.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Antoine Semenyo's move to City creates much uncertainty about how often - and where - he might play for them. Rather surprisingly, he got immediate starts in the FA Cup and League Cup games this past week, and notched attacking contributions in both. But Pep made extensive rotations from his usual 'first-choice' line-up for both games; and given that Semenyo's most likely competing for a place with Cherki and Doku - who've both been outstanding this season - on either the right or left of the attack, it looks rather doubtful to me if he will be able to rely on regular starts.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Well, I did a little 'Picks of the Week' post yesterday on some players who've looked really good recently (but are still surprisingly low-owned in FPL): Brenden Aaronson, James Garner, Mateus Mané, and Harvey Barnes.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

To Semenyo, or not to Semenyo....?

 

I've been having a bit of a schizophrenic experience with Antoine Semenyo this year. Although I've been a huge fan of his ability for a long time, and have been impressed by the strides he'd made over the past couple of years at Bournemouth, I still had reservations about him as an FPL asset (principally that he was so streaky: scoring heavily in short spells, but then having long dry runs - and seeming to be too easily eclipsed by other in-form players at the club: there were periods last season when he took a backseat not just to Kluivert and Tavernier, but even to Ouattara, Evanilson, and Brooks...). Those reservations, allied with misgivings about how well Bournemouth's form could hold up in the wake of having lost most of last year's stellar defence, deterred me from picking him in my initial squad. His very hot start to the season would soon compel a change of heart. But then, round about GW8 or 9, I grew disillusioned, suspecting that his early hot streak had run its course (one of the few 'prescient' calls I've correctly made this season!), and offloaded him again earlier than most. Ah, and then..... I was impressed that he was still playing very well, and regularly threatening goals, even during the long drought that followed the opening seven games, and took a chance on bringing him back again, just a little before he started finding the net once more.

And then... I prepared to offload him again as soon as his threatened transfer away from Bournemouth materialised. There seemed to be a chance that he might transfer out of the League altogether. And if he stayed in England, he'd surely only go to one of the top few clubs - where he couldn't be expected to enjoy a regular start.

I felt particular trepidation when City suddenly emerged as the favourites to land him (Liverpool and Arsenal seemed to have been the likelier destinations in earlier speculations; and Chelsea would have been my dream move for him - both for what he might have done to improve the team, and for himself having reasonable prospects of finding an immediate and regular start): Pep often takes weeks to train a player up in 'his' way of playing before he'll give him a regular start in the team. Even worse, he regularly blows hot and cold on whether he even likes wide attackers: neither Savinho nor Bobb, nor even Doku - who's been superb when he has played - has enjoyed regular starts this year. I was indeed a little afraid that Semenyo's pace and strength and finishing ability might pigeonhole him in Pep's mind more as a central striker option - and hence a rarely used understudy to Haaland.

But, lordy, lordy, he was thrown straight into the fray as a starter, without having to endure a month-long tactical indoctrination. Indeed, he started two games in succession, and provided attacking contributions in both! FPL managers who'd held on to him over the brief transfer saga this month are starting to feel pretty smug; and around 185,000 new owners have already come in for him over the past week-and-a-bit.

However, I would still sound a note of caution on his City prospects. These two games he just played were Cup ties - and they really don't have much bearing these days on how a club will approach its League fixtures. I think every single Premier League club - even those drawn against top-tier opponents - fielded their back-up keeper and at least 3 or 4 outfield rotations from their usual 'first-choice' line-up for the FA Cup 3rd Round. The mere fact that Semenyo started in both of these games really means little or nothing in terms of his likely status in Pep's pecking-order.

Moreover, Marmoush and Ait-Nouri (who's probably now more likely to be considered for a role as a winger, if he gets a look-in at all) have been away at AFCON, Bobb and Savinho are injured, and Doku's just back from an injury and perhaps still getting 'managed minutes' for medical reasons. So, Semenyo probably got this quick start more because of a lack of competition for the place than because he's immediately become Pep's new favourite.

If he starts regularly, and if he plays as well as he just did in these two Cup games, and if he forges a productive rapport with the great Haaland - then, yes, Antoine Semenyo could be one of the top-performing FPL 'midfielders' for the second half of the season.

But that's quite a lot of 'ifs'. Just about no-one at City (well, Donnarumma and most of the defence when they're all fit, Rodri if he's fully fit again, and of course Haaland - but no-one else) can be expected to enjoy an invariable start. And even very occasional benchings can be extremely disruptive to the form and confidence of a player who's become used to being an ever-present.

For me, Semenyo is a wait-and-see. If you have him already, obviously you'll hang on to him for a few more gameweeks. But if you don't, there are probably more important transfers to be considering for the next week or two. My feeling is that it's currently a bit of a 50/50 as to whether he'll turn out to be the star of the season or the flop of the season from here on. I very much hope it's going to be the former; but I wouldn't put any money on that just yet.

A little bit of Zen (77)

 

"He who is not contented with what he has, would not be contented with what he would like to have."

Socrates