More ways to SELF-DESTRUCT

 

The FPL forums have been awash with nutters talking about using their second Wildcard this week. Yes, in Gameweek 22, barely three weeks into the New Year! Does THE MADNESS know no end??!!

The reasons why this is an overwhelmingly BAD IDEA ought to be obvious to anyone who has played the game for more than a few years

They are as follows:

1)  For any chip, there is more risk in using it earlier in its period of availability rather than later. During half a season, there will usually be at least a few, possibly several reasonable - perhaps pressing - occasions to potentially use a chip. And some of these may crop up unexpectedly, at little or no notice: you don't know they're going to happen until they happen. Thus, the later you can leave it to play a chip, the more confident you can be that there won't any longer be a better occasion to use it arising later on.

2) The general 'leaving it later' principle above is particularly true with the Wildcard because it is a 'rebuild chip' which allows you to make substantial and lasting changes to your squad, rather than just a one-off switcheroo to allow you to earn extra points in a single gameweek like all the others. It is potentially so valuable that it really should not be thrown away lightly, at the first sign of any difficulty in your squad. You tend to accumulate need for a Wildcard over time, as drop-offs in form and injuries and suspensions progressively weaken your squad. If things look bad this week, they might be even worse in another week or two!

3)  A crisis requiring a Wildcard to rectify it can also arise very suddenly: it is not uncommon to pick up 4, 5, 6 or even more injuries (or suspensions, or fallings-out-of-favour with the manager) inside a week or two. That is the kind of catastrophe for which you may need your Wildcard. And they can occur at any time (although they tend to become more common in the final third of the season...).

4)  Although this threshold will decrease slightly later in the season, you don't really want to be considering a Wildcard unless you have a case for making at least 5 or 6 urgent changes to your squad. If players aren't unavailable - through being injured, dropped, transferred out, suspended, etc. - it's never absolutely urgent to replace them, it's simply 'elective'. You should be able to carry under-performing players on your bench for a week or three, while you stock up more Free Transfers for a 'mini-Wildcard' shake-up. You can even sometimes take a chance on leaving a few 'holes' on your bench (hang on to non-playing assets) for a little while. And if an immediate change seems likely to be particularly valuable to you, it's OK to take a 'hit' - spend the extra points on it - a few times a season. Blowing a Wildcard for only 3 or 4 - non-urgent! - changes is A COMPLETE WASTE.

5)  At the moment, no-one should have such an urgent case for multiple squad changes. Although there have been a lot of injuries over the past month or so, mercifully, so far none of these have affected any of the really 'big' players: Josko Gvardiol is the only high-owned FPL asset who's been ruled out for a long spell. Moreover, we all just enjoyed an extra 'mini-Wildcard' this year, with the unnecessary additional transfers doled out for AFCON barely a month ago. If you used those sensibly to strengthen your squad during December (or saved at least some of them to allow yourselves a few extra transfers during the injury-ravaged month of January...), there should be absolutely no need to consider multiple squad revisions - or any at all! - just now.

6)  You don't want to be using a Wildcard at a time where there is more than usual uncertainty about what's going on in the Premier League, and perhaps an imminent possibility of significant changes in the FPL player-comparison landscape. And that is very much the case at the moment, in late January. The mid-season transfer window doesn't close for another 11 days, and there's usually a late rush of activity right before the final deadline (this year, on the evening of February the 2nd); some players might yet leave the Premier League altogether, some new big names might join from overseas. And even if you don't fancy any of the new arrivals themselves, you need to be mindful of the disruptive effect they can have on team selections and playing styles, of the possible knock-on consequences for players you do own, or might like to own. These impacts will not make usually themselves fully felt until at least a few weeks after a new player has joined - or left - a club; so, for this reason alone, it is utterly, utterly DAFT to consider using the Wildcard before the second half of February, at the very earliest.

7)  Quite apart from the upheaval of the transfer window, we are deep in the 'midwinter doldrums' now: almost every team is suffering poor or fluctuating form, most players are obviously getting tired or jaded, and many are probably carrying some sort of niggling injury. A crop of new more serious injuries is arriving every week. If you use the Wildcard now, there is an elevated risk that most or all of your new selections might lose form or become unavailable altogether within a few weeks: that is why you shouldn't use it in January. 

8)  There are also some more particular factors affecting the overall player-comparison landscape just at the moment. The five main ones are: a) additional upheaval caused by the turnover of managers around this time of year (Maresca and Amorim have just been replaced; Glasner had looked likely to go, but might survive; Frank looks under extreme threat, Dyche, Espirito Santo, and possibly even Howe also at some risk); b) the immediate and dramatic improvement displayed by Manchester United on being freed from the shackles of Ruben Amorim; c) the upturn in form and fighting spirit starting to be shown by all the clubs at the bottom of the table, making relative 'fixture difficulty' much more difficult to assess; d) the return of AFCON players (most of the more popular FPL choices went deep into the tournament and have only just rejoined their clubs; Senegal and Morocco were in the final last Sunday, and it is not clear if - probably rather unlikely that - their players will be back, or able to be immediately reintegrated into their club sides this weekend); e) the conundrum of Cole Palmer (and perhaps also of Mo Salah and Ollie Watkins); he's playing again at last, and faces a short run of fairly 'easy'-looking fixtures over the next month or so; many FPL managers are bringing him in just because of this enticing fixture-run - but that's almost certainly dangerously premature. He's still being troubled by recurring muscular discomfort, and is obviously a long way short of full stamina and match sharpness (he looked absolutely exhausted at the end of last week's game against Brentford, and he hadn't even been all that 'busy' in it - compared to his usual all-action standards); he isn't yet anywhere near his best, and looks like he might take at least a few more weeks to get there. If/when he does, he'll almost certainly be worth having; but because he's so expensive, that's probably going to require at least three or four transfers - not just one - to accomplish, to reallocate budget around a squad. The only other 'premium' players this season - Salah, Watkins, and Saka - might present a similar dilemma; we know they have the potential to make an enormous FPL contribution - but they haven't been doing so thus far; as soon as that changes, we may want them again,... and we may need to make multiple changes in one gameweek to achieve that. (You don't necessarily need a Wildcard to make these changes; in fact, you really shouldn't. But the point here is that there are a number of likely circumstances that might make you want to make substantial changes to your squad again in the near future - and these might undo many of the changes you've just made with your silly, premature Wildcard.)

Now do you see???

And, oh gawd, some people are talking about using their Bench Boost too. There's a much simpler argument against that. With so much injury, fatigue, and important European and domestic Cup games cramping the schedule at the moment, and thus a heightened rate of unpredictable player rotations - you can't count on anyone being a guaranteed starter at the moment; and thus it's very unlikely that all 15 of your squad will start (which is the bare minimum criterion for considering a Bench Boost play). Also, just about no-one has a really strong bench at the moment (you usually have to use some saved transfers or a chip to 'set up' an optimum squad to get a really good Bench Boost return). And, even if this weekend's games were happening in less unsettled February or March, it still wouldn't be a good gameweek for a Bench Boost: there just aren't that many attractive fixture match-ups!!!

People considering either of these chip plays this week (or, good grief, yes, the Triple Captain or Free Hit too), are just BORED, IMPATIENT, or DEPRESSED (taking the recent run of terrible gameweek returns too personally: wake up, people, it's been SHIT for everyone lately!!), and looking to cheer themselves up with a whacky and impulsive move. All you are doing, my friends, is shooting yourselves in the foot. You'll get no decent advantage from these chips this week; and you will soon be ruing your choice when an obviously much better - or more necessary - occasion to use them comes along.

A little bit of Zen (78)

 

"The superior man is distressed only by the limitations of his ability. He is not distressed by the fact that other men do not recognise the ability that he has."

Kong Qiu ('Confucius')

More TACTICS!

 

The informative tactical analyst and football historian DK Falcon doesn't seem to have been posting that much on Youtube lately (not that I've noticed, anyway....), but this interesting piece popped up last weekend. 

In it he outlines the recent major evolutions in top-level football tactics, explaining how the aggressive high press (the 'Gegenpress' developed in Germany in the early 2010s, and brought to England by Jurgen Klopp) was in part a dialectic response to the refined style of controlled possession inspired by Barcelona's 'tiki-taka'; and then in turn the 'press-baiting' approach (being prepared to play the ball around across the back indefinitely, ostentatiously putting your foot on the ball to defy the opposition to try to take it off you, and keeping your back line ultra-deep, sometimes even playing to and fro practically on the goal-line itself - to try to draw the first line of pressure high into the penalty area and expose an inviting gap behind it) and new ways of playing through the high press pioneered by Roberto de Zerbi were a response to this; and now the rapid growth of 'hybrid pressing' (combining elements of zonal marking and man-marking to produce greater flexibility, and enabling rapid transition from high press to mid-block modes) is a reponse to that.

And what's next after that?? Well, maybe something radically different - not just another counter-measure to the prevailing norms, but a new tactical idea that truly breaks the mould. By coincidence, Conor McAinsh's Football Meta published this video at about the same time, breaking down the innovative style of José Alberto's Racing Santander - currently top of the heap in La Segunda in Spain.

Alberto's approach is a kind of extreme 'relationism', largely shunning conventional structures and demanding a great deal of flexibility from his players to constantly rotate positions with each other and improvise their way out of difficulties. The essence of it is to mob the opponent on the ball, closing off all his passing options as quickly as possible; this typically involves concentrating most of the outfield players in a fairly small area, and often putting the entire team in the same half of the pitch. The advantage of this is that it does put the opponent under enormous pressure, with a huge numerical advantage around the ball; and if a turnover is achieved, the wide open spaces left elsewhere on the pitch can be exploited for a swift counter-attack. However, it is necessarily a tactic of high reward/high risk: if the opponent manages to elude this press, he usually has one or more unmarked players in acres of space, especially on the opposite flank, and is even better placed to launch a devastating fast attack. [Fernando Diniz enjoyed some success for a while with a similar system at Fluminense in Brazil a few years ago. The Purist Football did a good video on this back then.]

Too much of a 'good thing'??

I mentioned last week that there was probably an 'expanded' version of the FPL rules hidden away somewhere, because.... there are certain lacunae, certain points not covered in the rather brief rules published on the main FPL webpages. 

One such area of mystery is the issue of what happens if you inadvertently exceed the normal club quota of three players from any one Premier League side - through having someone transfer in to a club you already hold three players from.

That's happening to quite a lot of people at the moment, with the very popular Antoine Semenyo and Marc Guehi both accepting January moves to Manchester City - from whom, in addition to the inescapable Erling Haaland, Nunes, O'Reilly, Doku, Cherki, Foden, Reijnders, and Donnarumma are all fairly common selections.

I don't think this has ever happened to me, but it's not such an uncommon phenomenon. What appears to happen is that you're allowed your suddenly over-quota line-up of 4 (or even 5 or 6 or whatever...) players until you next make a transfer; but as soon as you want to make any changes to your squad, you have to begin by reducing your holding from that club back to the regular maximum of 3 players.

Straightforward enough, really; except that I have no idea if this rule is actually stated in print anywhere. It seems to be something you just have to learn through experience.

And because of that lack of clarity on the issue in the 'basic rules', all sorts of bizarre notions start to circulate online about this situation. I saw a chap on a forum the other day insisting that you're allowed to have more than 3 players in your squad in these circumstances, but not allowed to put more than 3 in your starting eleven.... NOT SO!

Of course, the real mystery here is WHY anyone would already have 3 City players. Donnarumma is nowhere near the best keeper pick for FPL (and is prohibitively expensive), Foden has become unproductive again after his insane two-week points splurge at the start of December, and the other midfielders - including Semenyo, for now, at least - and probably O'Reilly too, are all minutes risks.

Guehi is likely to be an immediate and regular starter, at least while Dias and Gvardiol are injured; but I would rather have waited a week or two to see if that really would be the case, and to see how well he'd settle in at the new club, before making a decision about retaining or acquiring him.

If I'd suddenly found myself with 5 Manchester City players, I'd probably take this odd stroke of Fate as a prompting to get rid of 3 or 4 of them as soon as possible. But, of course, it is unfortunate to have to make even 2 'forced' transfers as a result of this obscure little rules glitch.

Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 22

As I said last week, the great, inevitable winter downturn in form continues on and on through the shitty weather and cramped fixture schedules of January and February - and now even has an added sprinkle of further uncertainty and confusion from the mid-season transfer window.  In a season of almost nothing but awful gameweeks, this one looks like it could be competing to become the worst of the worst. Almost everyone looks leggy and jaded, form is all over the place. Fulham losing to Leeds and Spurs losing (at home!) to West Ham were perhaps not entirely surprising, but United winning so comfortably against a lacklustre City was, and Sunderland beating Palace and Arsenal and Liverpool being held to draws by bottom-of-the-table sides were even more so.

A few surprises in Michael Carrick's first selection, with Dorgu being retained as an attacking player (though back on the left, rather than the right - where he had unexpectedly thrived in a couple of experimental run-outs under the the last days of Ruben Amorim), Shaw and Maguire coming back into the back-four (at the expense of Leny Yoro) alongside Martinez and Dalot, Sesko being dropped at centre-forward in favour of just-back-from AFCON Mbeumo, and Mainoo slotting in alongside Casemiro in the midfield engine-room (that one not so surprising - although he looked just a little ring-rusty, after being frozen out of competitive football for so long, his swift turns away from a pressing opponent were as useful as ever). Pep dropped Cherki for Semenyo, but the new boy struggled to make any impact in this one; and Matheus Nunes had apparently gone down with 'flu, so Rico Lewis had to deputise for him at right-back. It was one of the most entertaining lunchtime games we've seen this season, although it threatened for quite a while to be a thrilling nil-nil: both teams playing some slick football and progressing the ball quickly, but struggling to find the necessary incisveness when they got near the opposition penalty box. United, however, were having all the most dangerous moments: Donnarumma came out like a thunderbolt to clear Alleyne's weak back-pass off the toes of Dorgu and Mbeumo early on, made good saves from Dorgu and Diallo (and another save from Diallo at the beginning of the second-half, followed by a double-block on Casemiro's attempt to follow up), saw Maguire smash a close-range header from a corner against the cross-bar just a few minutes in, and was relieved that quick breaks in behind from Amad Diallo and Bruno Fernandes  - who were both able to get round him rather easily and coolly slot home into an empty net - were shown a late flag for tight-ish offsides (Amad's looked like a matter of only 6 or 8 inches, Bruno's more like 18 inches or so); another moment of panic was uncannily redeemed by super-fast reactions from Khusanov to steal the ball off Mbeumo when a misplaced pass on the edge of the City box had gifted the ball to Bruno who was able to square it to his striker in acres of space. Pep made the harsh decision to sub young Max Alleyne at half-time (shunting Ake into central defence from the left and restoring Nico O'Reilly to the left-back slot), but that did nothing to stop the rot, and it began to seem inevitable that United would eventually find a breakthrough - as they eventually did with a lightning three-man counter-attack confidently finished by Mbeumo. Cunha, brought on to replace Mbeumo after 70 minutes, also looked lively in his cameo, and set up Dorgu for a second after just a few minutes on the pitch; and shortly afterwards another fast break from Diallo - on the left this time! - ended with him lashing a shot against the post. Late substitute Mason Mount appeared to have made the margin even more decisive in added-on time, but a long VAR check eventually decided that Cunha had been very narrowly offside when running on to the initial through-ball. City, somehow, were misfiring in almost every single aspect of their game here (well, apart from the goalkeeping), and were really pretty fortunate not to go down 5-0. United fans are justifiably ecstatic - though they'll probably now be questioning even more why they didn't ditch Amorim last summer. City fans might perhaps console themselves with the 'what if' that the game might have turned out very differently if Dalot had been sent off, as he really should have been in the opening minutes, when his clumsy follow-through on Doku raked studs down the side of the winger's knee with sufficient force to bend his leg dangerously inwards - very lucky to inflict only a painful bruise rather than season-ending ligament damage.

Chelsea were able to field their 'best 11' for the first time in a while (although Palmer still looked somewhat short of full match fitness, and was completely drained by the end), but still their ultimately quite comfortable win was a little bit of a surprise, given the strength of Brentford's recent form. Somehow, though, the visitors didn't bring their best game this time, and despite having a slight majority of possession, they couldn't do much with it; all their best chances fell to Schade rather than Thiago, and the German just hadn't brought his scoring boots with him. Chelsea should also have had a penalty early on, when a defender clipped Joao Pedro's heel in the box; not a very strong contact, but completely clearcut - Pedro's rather theatrical dive probably worked against him (well, that and the fact that Chelsea just never get penalties any more!.... although they did in fact get a rare award here in the second-half, comfortably despatched by Palmer). At least VAR was doing its job for once, correcting the linesman's rash decision that Joao Pedro had been offside for his well-taken opening goal (it was tight, but he was pretty clearly onside, even to the naked eye). Chelsea weren't really all that good, but they were good enough to prevail over a misfiring opponent.

Liverpool v Burnley started out a fairly drab and scrappy affair, but slowly warmed up. Gakpo earned possibly the softest penalty of the year so far by walking into a Burnley defender and falling over. Szoboszlai, now claiming the penalty duties (why is not Ekitike??), was perhaps so embarrassed by this decision that he smashed his spot-kick against the cross-bar. Liverpool started to get on top after this, and Florian Wirtz ended up having his best league game for the club yet - smashing in a goal very emphatically from 15 yards out, having another decent effort soon after, and playing in Gakpo for an attempt that had to be cleared off the line by Humphreys. Burnley, though, kept plugging away, and their excellent winner from winger Marcus Edwards felt well-deserved. Indeed, they might have snuck away with a win if Konate's latest lapse had proven costly: shortly before the Burnley goal, the increasingly clumsy-looking defender had prodded a low cross from Edwards powerfully towards his own goal - demanding an outstanding save from Alisson to preserve the tenuous lead. Liverpool piled on the pressure over the last 20 or 30 minutes, but couldn't break their obstinate visitors down - although Ekitike had an apparent late winner rightly ruled out for offside (and a possible handball too), and then somehow failed to get a touch when unmarked at the far post as Curtis Jones's fiercely driven square ball (mishit shot??) whizzed past the end of his toe.

Lucas Perri was replaced in goal by Karl Darlow, after a few shakey performances of late. Daniel Farke might have wished he could replace his whole team, as this game against Fulham was a dour, lifeless encounter that had 0-0 written all over it from the outset. The recently on-fire Brenden Aaronson and Harry Wilson had the only two decent half-chances in the match, but both failed to get their efforts on target. A late breakaway by Ampadu down the right set up substitute Nmecha for a superb goal just as we entered stoppage time at the end of the game; and the German forward nearly made it a brace a minute or two later, when his fierce shot after a solo break down the left brought an excellent save out of Leno.

Mavropanos, who looked as if he had suffered a serious head and/or neck injury in the FA Cup last week, was fit to start after all, and produced a very good looping header that forced Vicario into a flying save in the first-half. Spurs suffered another injury blow when Ben Davies had to leave the pitch with a serious leg injury after just a quarter of an hour, while new signing Conor Gallagher made an immediate start, but failed to have much of an impact - in a game which West Ham were able to dominate for long periods. The home side came out with much more cohesion and purpose in the second-half, and were able to get back on terms through a powerful Romero header. Indeed, they looked like they should have been able to take charge of the game, with Areola being forced into saves from powerful efforts by Bissouma and Simons; and they feel they might have had a penalty when the ball touched Scarles's hand (I don't know how the no-penalty decision was justified under the current labyrinthine guidelines, but it seemed fair enough to me: the ball barely brushed his fingertips, and he knew absolutely nothing about it as the ball was played on to him by the Spurs player from only inches away). But flapper Vicario yet again allowed himself to get boxed in at a corner, and substitute Callum Wilson was able to lash home an injury-time winner. Another disastrous home result had the fans baying for Thomas Frank's dismissal at the final whistle, and I fear his position at the club has surely now become untenable.

Sunderland were re-energized by the return of Sadiki and Reinildo from AFCON, but visiting Palace still had the better of first phase of the game - not notably discombobulated by the sudden loss of Marc Guehi or by Oliver Glasner's shock announcement on Friday of his intention to leave the club at the end of the season. Unfortunately, Yeremy Pino's neat opening goal was almost immediately cancelled out by Le Fee, and in the second-half the home team increasingly asserted themselves until another goal became inevitable; indeed, they really should have had a penalty when Romaine Mundle was barged in the back by Justin Devenny. Adam Wharton might have been a bit lucky to escape a second yellow card as well. Unfortunately, the game itself was soon overshadowed by Glasner's glum comments afterwards, complaining at feeling his team has been "abandoned" by the club's ownership (he seemed especially aggrieved at the failure to at least hang on to Eze and Guehi a bit longer, to try to delay their transfers to squeeze one or two more games out of them, but that's probably not a realistic demand; his bigger gripe is surely the failure to promptly bring in adequate replacements, which left him with a threadbare bench this week). This surely signals that he'll depart the club this week rather than at season's end - an unfortunate loss to the English game (unless he perhaps takes the Spurs job??).

Accumulating defensive injuries at Arsenal have finally given Ben White a route back to the starting place that was his right a couple of seasons ago - but for how long? Arteta also brought in Martinelli (who put the only decent chance of the first-half agonisingly just an inch or two wide of the far post) for the recently prolific Trossard (but swapped them back at half-time, which can't be likely to boost the confidence of either player), and - a rare occurrence indeed! - rested Saka (no doubt to the chagrin of many FPL managers, quite a few of whom might have made him captain for this fixture) in favour of Madueke, while giving the seemingly 'out of favour' Eze a scant 10 minutes at the end. Saka and Merino, though, got on for the last half-hour or so (at the expense of Madueke and Gyokeres, denied full appearance points), and Saka produced the best effort of the game - a towering header that brought a flying fingertip save from Sels. Forest, much improved on recent lifeless performances, had the best of the game for the most part, and did a good job of frustrating their visitors - who may have been feeling a bit of extra pressure from the fact that they unexpectedly had a chance to extend their lead in the title race. A mostly rather dull and uneventful match was distinguished by the oddity of having 2 dubiously turned-down penalties: Hudson-Odoi was pulled/tripped by Timber on the edge of the area, but both the referee and the VAR team somehow concluded that the 'decisive moment' of the illegal contact had occurred a fraction of an inch short of the line (I think absolutely everyone in the stadium, including the Arsenal fans, must have thought it was a penalty!); but then the balance of injustice was perhaps restored later in the game when Aina clearly handled the ball in an attempt to keep it in play, but this was somehow excused on the 'natural position for the arm' clause (oh yes, if you're trying to keep the ball from crossing the line, you naturally move the crook of your elbow towards it!).

In a gameweek of almost entirely limp matches, Wolves v Newcastle was undoubtedly the limpest. Usually 0-0s result from sterling defensive performances, but here neither keeper earned 'saves' points, and only Mosquera earned 'defensive points' (no-one else came anywhere near). The only decent effort in the game came from Wolves's explosive teenager Mateus Mané, whose cute over-the-shoulder volley from 10 yards out unfortunately went straight down the middle into Pope's arms. Newcastle were fortunate that Trippier and Botman were fit again to plug the gaps in their defence, and Trippier might have been 'Man of the Match' - curling a free-kick into the outside of the side-netting, and putting in a sublime cross early in the game that Woltemade somehow failed to make contact with. (And he was playing through some discomfort, as Mané had accidentally stamped on his forehead early on, leaving him with a deep cut across the bridge of his nose.) Woltemade, Tonali, and Gordon were all taken off in the 65th minute: reasonable enough, since they weren't having much impact in this stalemate of a game - and at least they got their minimum FPL 'appearance points' from the outing. The main takeaway from this one is that Rob Edwards has finally got Wolves playing like a side who don't deserve to go down: they're still a long way from great, but at least they're now showing some confidence and cohesion, and are becoming tougher to beat.

Of all the slumps in form we've seen this week, Villa's was perhaps the most dramatic and alarming. They dominated possession against visitors Everton, but really weren't able to do anything much with the ball. All the best chances fell to Morgan Rogers, who managed to miss them all badly (apart from one good curled effort from distance near the end, which might have been just sneaking under the bar, until Pickford flew across his goal to tip it over). Their closest chance was actually a miscued header from Guessand which deceived Pickford and looped on to the face of the crossbar behind him. Ollie Watkins was so anonymous in this game that I had to double-check the match reports to see if he'd even been playing: absolutely zero mentions in the commentary, and just about zero touches of the ball! Villa also lost the inspirational John McGinn, who limped off the pitch early on with what looked like it might be a knee-cartilage problem. And in a mostly fairly glum, uneventful match where neither side created much scoring threat, they managed to give a goal away with a dreadful double error: Pau Torres's miscontrol giving the ball away just outside his own box, and then Martinez spilling Dwight McNeil's weak curled effort right at the feet of a surprised and grateful Thierno Barry. Jake O'Brien had also headed home from a short-corner routine, but Harrison Armstrong was adjudged to have been offside at the edge of the six-yard box as Garner played the ball in. (This again was a rather unsatisfying decision. The TV picture kept freezing the frame as Garner was beginning to swing his foot at the ball. At this point, Armstrong was clearly a foot or so behind the line of the defenders - but he was already stepping back towards an onside postion as the defenders were quckly dropping deeper, so their relative positions changed dramatically within one or two tenths of a second. And it really wasn't clear when Garner's foot had made contact with the ball... or when that contact finished, as he was playing a gentle scooped cross with a fairly prolonged contact on the ball: this was actually a very, very tight decision, and a few frames of the video playback could have made all the difference. It would have been reassuring to see an official SAOT graphic to justify this call - since this technology can supposedly identify the 'exact' moment a pass is struck via a sensor inside the ball - but none was forthcoming.) And the visitors had come close to nicking what might have been one of the three or four fastest goals in Premier League history when a long-ball from Pickford reached baby-faced midfielder Merlin Röhl who cracked off an early shot from the edge of the box; he didn't make particularly good contact with it, but it caught Martinez by surprise and eluded his dive, rolling against the foot of the far post... just under 11 seconds from the opening whistle. (It would have been nice to see that go in, just for the little bit of history.)

Monday night's south coast derby between Brighton and Bournemouth might have been the most entertaining fixture of the gameweek - although that's not saying much. Brighton had 'rested' three of their most crucial players, Baleba, Rutter, and Minteh, and although making a lively and dangerous start to the game, soon allowed their visitors to start taking control. Adli's fall in the penalty area at the end of a swift break led by Tavernier was initially judged a 'dive' by Paul Tierney, but for once VAR proved useful in showing that Verbruggen had indeed touched his feet as he grasped vainly for the ball. It's interesting to see that after Semenyo's departure and Kluivert's injury, Tavernier is now on penalty-taking duties, and looking very confident in the role. Bournemouth were then all over the home side for the last part of the first-half, with Evanilson beating Verbruggen with a neat dink but seeing the ball come back off the inside of the far post, and then putting a header inches wide. Brighton reasserted control in the second-half, however, and began looking particularly dangerous after the belated introduction of their three star performers in the 66th minute. However, a resolute Bournemouth managed to defy them until teen substitute Kostoulous came up with a bicycle-kick goal at the beginning of added-on time. A good game - apparently unmarred by refereeing cock-ups (almost unique this gameweek).

Yes, once again it's a super-weird FPL 'Team of the Week'; of the preliminary line-up after Saturday's matches only Bruno Fernandes, Dorgu and Chalobah had much of an FPL ownership (and the latter two not that much); the only subsequent change was that Chalobah got bumped out by Thiaw. There was a dearth of goals (the 10th lowest-scoring gameweek in Premier League history!), almost all of the most fancied FPL players came up blank, and pretty nearly all of the results confounded expectations. In a season of miserably low gameweek averages this week's figure of 40 points is almost a new nadir! Also, there were 5 penalties probably wrongly not given (2 in the same game!), and 1 wrongly given (and missed!), a couple of red cards missed, a slightly dubious disallowed 'offside' goal for Everton, and a fair old welter of near-misses and efforts against the woodwork; also some unwelcome selection surprises, and generally sub-standard performances from almost everyone - this is again looking like about an 8 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter' for this gameweek.

Dilemmas of the Week - GW 22 (25/26)

 

We've had a little break from Premier League action for the past 9 days; but of course, everyone was involved in FA Cup ties last weekend, and 4 clubs also had the first leg of their League Cup Semi-Finals this week. So, there have been some further injuries since the last EPL Gameweek, on top of the heavy crop we suffered in that first batch of 2026 games. Also, the January transfer window is starting to cause a little bit of turmoil - with Manchester City looking set to poach all the players that their rivals most covet, and that the better mid-table sides most rely on.

I am trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 22?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Arsenal lost another defender when Piero Hincapie limped out of the GW21 clash with Liverpool with some kind of leg-muscle injury. And as there's still no sign of Calafiori being able to return, this presumably means that Myles Lewis-Skelly or Ben White (with Timber switching to the left) could finally get a run of starts. When we see which of those options Arteta goes with, this might be a tempting cheaper route into extra representation from the Arsenal defence.

Villa's midfield lynchpin Boubacar Kamara had to come off in the FA Cup game against Leeds with a knee injury - which might keep him out for a while. And Emi Martinez came off during the last league game against Palace; apparently it's a calf-strain this time, rather than another instance of his recurring back problem - but he's still a doubt for this weekend.

Justin Kluivert has had to have a knee surgery which has probably put an end to his season. And back-up striker Enes Unal has picked up a leg-muscle problem which will sideline him for at least the rest of this month.

Jordan Henderson rolled his ankle badly in the FA Cup game against Sheffield Wednesday, but his subsequent withdrawal in that game was said to be just 'precautionary', and Keith Andrews is hopeful that he'll be OK for the visit to Chelsea.

Jamie Gittens and Liam Delap missed Wednesday's League Cup game against Arsenal because of an illness (though, for my money, Delap hasn't been looking good enough lately to earn a start ahead of Guiu, let alone Joao Pedro). And Malo Gusto and Reece James missed both this week's Cup games because of training knocks - but are expected/hoped to be OK again for this weekend. Cole Palmer also missed these last two games with a thigh muscle problem, although Liam Rosenior hopes it was fairly minor and won't keep him out any longer.

Everton's Tim Iroegbunam missed last week's FA Cup tie against Sunderland with a knock.

Conor Bradley collapsed near the end of the last league game against Arsenal with a serious knee injury; apparently he has not suffered ACL damage, but has needed surgery - and might miss the remainder of the season.

Fabian Schar suffered a serious ankle injury in the last league game against Leeds, and has needed surgery; he'll be lucky to return for the last few games of the season. Tino Livramento then suffered another hamstring strain in the FA Cup against Bournemouth and seems likely to be out for some time. It seems that Sven Botman may be rushed back into service alongside Thiaw in central defence, and Lewis Miley will have to continue to serve as a makeshift right-back: this is not promising for Newcastle's prospects in a fairly testing run of fixtures over the next month or so.

Forest goalkeeper John Victor somehow injured his knee (in the act of conceding their third goal against Villa in GW21, rashly charging 30 yards up the pitch to leave his goal empty); it's not clear what the problem is, but it's taking some time to resolve - so Matz Sels seems likely to step back between the posts (probably a more reliable choice anyway!).

Bertrand Traore returned early from AFCON after picking up an unspecified injury; so, he's back with Sunderland now, but it's unclear if he'll be available to play this week.

Lucas Bergvall and Rodrigo Betancur both had to come off with leg-muscle injuries in the GW21 loss to Bournemouth, while Richarlison pulled a hamstring in last weekend's FA Cup defeat by Villa.

Konstantinos Mavropanos had to be stretchered off in the FA Cup tie against QPR after getting caught in the back of the head by an opponent's knee as he was falling to the ground. It was at first feared that he might have suffered a serious neck injury; that seems not to be the case, fortunately, but it is likely he also suffered a heavy concussion, so will surely miss a week or two for that alone.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Michael Keane is serving a three-match ban for 'violent conduct' (although he's got the first one out of the way already in last week's FA Cup game), after his silly tug on Tolu Arokodare's braids. Fortunately, Nathan Patterson is ready to come back in at right-back, so Jake O'Brien can probably be slotted into central defence alongside Tarkowski - but Everton are stretched a bit thin at the back, with Coleman and Branthwaite still unavailable.

Manchester United's teenage winger Shea Lacey has a one-match ban after picking up two yellow cards in quick succession in the FA Cup tie against Brighton.

Oleks Zinchenko is on loan from Arsenal, so can't represent Forest against his parent club this week.

Oliver Glasner has said that Marc Guehi will not play for Palace this weekend, as a transfer away is being finalised. (Looks like City have landed him.)  Presumably, Jaydee Canvot - or perhaps Jefferson Lerma, who has played a few times on the right of the back-three - will step into his slot. But Palace too are looking very stretched in defence now.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Antoine Semenyo's move to City creates much uncertainty about how often - and where - he might play for them. Rather surprisingly, he got immediate starts in the FA Cup and League Cup games this past week, and notched attacking contributions in both. But Pep made extensive rotations from his usual 'first-choice' line-up for both games; and given that Semenyo's most likely competing for a place with Cherki and Doku - who've both been outstanding this season - on either the right or left of the attack, it looks rather doubtful to me if he will be able to rely on regular starts.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Well, I did a little 'Picks of the Week' post yesterday on some players who've looked really good recently (but are still surprisingly low-owned in FPL): Brenden Aaronson, James Garner, Mateus Mané, and Harvey Barnes.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

To Semenyo, or not to Semenyo....?

 

I've been having a bit of a schizophrenic experience with Antoine Semenyo this year. Although I've been a huge fan of his ability for a long time, and have been impressed by the strides he'd made over the past couple of years at Bournemouth, I still had reservations about him as an FPL asset (principally that he was so streaky: scoring heavily in short spells, but then having long dry runs - and seeming to be too easily eclipsed by other in-form players at the club: there were periods last season when he took a backseat not just to Kluivert and Tavernier, but even to Ouattara, Evanilson, and Brooks...). Those reservations, allied with misgivings about how well Bournemouth's form could hold up in the wake of having lost most of last year's stellar defence, deterred me from picking him in my initial squad. His very hot start to the season would soon compel a change of heart. But then, round about GW8 or 9, I grew disillusioned, suspecting that his early hot streak had run its course (one of the few 'prescient' calls I've correctly made this season!), and offloaded him again earlier than most. Ah, and then..... I was impressed that he was still playing very well, and regularly threatening goals, even during the long drought that followed the opening seven games, and took a chance on bringing him back again, just a little before he started finding the net once more.

And then... I prepared to offload him again as soon as his threatened transfer away from Bournemouth materialised. There seemed to be a chance that he might transfer out of the League altogether. And if he stayed in England, he'd surely only go to one of the top few clubs - where he couldn't be expected to enjoy a regular start.

I felt particular trepidation when City suddenly emerged as the favourites to land him (Liverpool and Arsenal seemed to have been the likelier destinations in earlier speculations; and Chelsea would have been my dream move for him - both for what he might have done to improve the team, and for himself having reasonable prospects of finding an immediate and regular start): Pep often takes weeks to train a player up in 'his' way of playing before he'll give him a regular start in the team. Even worse, he regularly blows hot and cold on whether he even likes wide attackers: neither Savinho nor Bobb, nor even Doku - who's been superb when he has played - has enjoyed regular starts this year. I was indeed a little afraid that Semenyo's pace and strength and finishing ability might pigeonhole him in Pep's mind more as a central striker option - and hence a rarely used understudy to Haaland.

But, lordy, lordy, he was thrown straight into the fray as a starter, without having to endure a month-long tactical indoctrination. Indeed, he started two games in succession, and provided attacking contributions in both! FPL managers who'd held on to him over the brief transfer saga this month are starting to feel pretty smug; and around 185,000 new owners have already come in for him over the past week-and-a-bit.

However, I would still sound a note of caution on his City prospects. These two games he just played were Cup ties - and they really don't have much bearing these days on how a club will approach its League fixtures. I think every single Premier League club - even those drawn against top-tier opponents - fielded their back-up keeper and at least 3 or 4 outfield rotations from their usual 'first-choice' line-up for the FA Cup 3rd Round. The mere fact that Semenyo started in both of these games really means little or nothing in terms of his likely status in Pep's pecking-order.

Moreover, Marmoush and Ait-Nouri (who's probably now more likely to be considered for a role as a winger, if he gets a look-in at all) have been away at AFCON, Bobb and Savinho are injured, and Doku's just back from an injury and perhaps still getting 'managed minutes' for medical reasons. So, Semenyo probably got this quick start more because of a lack of competition for the place than because he's immediately become Pep's new favourite.

If he starts regularly, and if he plays as well as he just did in these two Cup games, and if he forges a productive rapport with the great Haaland - then, yes, Antoine Semenyo could be one of the top-performing FPL 'midfielders' for the second half of the season.

But that's quite a lot of 'ifs'. Just about no-one at City (well, Donnarumma and most of the defence when they're all fit, Rodri if he's fully fit again, and of course Haaland - but no-one else) can be expected to enjoy an invariable start. And even very occasional benchings can be extremely disruptive to the form and confidence of a player who's become used to being an ever-present.

For me, Semenyo is a wait-and-see. If you have him already, obviously you'll hang on to him for a few more gameweeks. But if you don't, there are probably more important transfers to be considering for the next week or two. My feeling is that it's currently a bit of a 50/50 as to whether he'll turn out to be the star of the season or the flop of the season from here on. I very much hope it's going to be the former; but I wouldn't put any money on that just yet.

A little bit of Zen (77)

 

"He who is not contented with what he has, would not be contented with what he would like to have."

Socrates

Picks of the Week (8)

DISCLAIMER: I always refuse to identify myself as any sort of FPL 'guru' or 'mentor' or 'expert'. And I have previously on this blog expressed my reluctance to share many details of my own selections, or to make very specific player recommendations.

However, in addition to occasionally critiquing common 'sheep picks' of the moment (not all necessarily outright bad, but ridiculously over-popular selections), I will occasionally try to highlight one or two players who seem not yet to be very widely owned but are starting to look very tempting prospects.

I will generally try to come up with at least 2 options per week - so that it doesn't look like I'm making a sole recommendation. And these suggestions are intended to be simply 'worth thinking about', not at all 'must-haves'. And some weeks, most weeks, I'll have nothing..... In practice, I generally only come up with one of these posts once every month or two.

These suggestions here for Gameweek 22 might seem a little late (these players have all been making a mark for a few gameweeks already at least, and are seeing a modest upsurge in transfers now), or perhaps to be too brazenly chasing points (as they've all had particularly good returns in the last match or two), but I'll stand by them - as they are, at present, all still astonishingly under-owned in FPL.

So, first off, we have the Leeds attacking midfielder, Brenden Aaronson. The Yorkshire side really seem to have turned their ragged early season form around: they scored in every league game for the past two months, were unbeaten in December, and only had an astonishing 7-game unbeaten streak ended by a narrow defeat in the high-scoring game at Newcastle last time out. The sudden renaissance of their injury-prone centre-forward Dominic Calvert-Lewin has been grabbing most of the attention during this spell, but I think Aaronson is even more worth a look for FPL: 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 4 matches, and he's playing very well and very consistently all-around - he might well have nabbed a few more contributions than that. He looks to me like a player who could keep this little run of points-scoring going quite a bit longer; especially with the fairly amenable set of fixtures the club have upcoming: Fulham, Everton, and Forest in three of their next four. Even the big boys, Arsenal and City, are at least having to come to Elland Road; and the generally not too daunting run continues through March. The question is whether you can find room for another midfielder, with so many tempting options at the moment (Mbeumo and Ndiaye back from AFCON shortly, Palmer finally fit again and facing a very inviting set of fixtures for the next six gameweeks, Semenyo possibly going to prove explosive at City if he gets regular starts..., and Fulham's Harry Wilson in one of the most impressive veins of form we've seen from any midfielder in the last few years). If, however, you are interested in getting a better back-up keeper (Dubravka is looking like a liability now), or another premium forward (has Watkins finally found his scoring boots again?) or midfielder (we're probably going to want Palmer at some point in the second-half of the season, aren't we?), Aaronson looks like an appealing 'budget-enabler' at only 5.4 million pounds. And he's somehow owned by less than 0.5% of FPL managers.

Next, I feel James Garner (the Everton central midfielder, not the Rockford Files actor!) could be worth a moment's consideration. Heck, The Athletic's sharp and amusing analyst, JJ Bull, was recommending him the other day as a potential cure for Manchester United's midfield woes! He's another, like Aaronson, who has been looking increasingly impressive over the last six or seven gameweeks. And there has been a modest rush for him already, after he grabbed a goal and an assist against Forest at the turn of the year. That little 'sheep stampede', though, has quickly lost momentum, and he's still only 3.5% owned! And if you're counting your pennies while coveting a big-money signing, he's even cheaper than Aaronson at just 5.1 million pounds. I think Aaronson has the bigger high-return potential in the short-term, but if you're looking for a dependable medium-term hold, Garner could be a good option. He's not likely to score very often, but his excellent delivery from corners and free-kicks - and even occasionally long-throws - makes him a good prospect for the occasional assist. And he's been a monster for the new 'defensive points', earning them in each of the last 6 games; and he's now second only to Elliot Anderson for his recorded tally of 'contributions'. Everton's form has been flakier than Leeds's of late, but that might change with the imminent return of Ndiaye and Idrissa Gueye; and, like Leeds, they have a fairly inviting sequence of opponents ahead (after their visit to Villa Park this weekend).

And if you're looking for a more left-field option as a cheap third striker, it's hard to look beyond Wolves's teen sensation Mateus Mané. The lad is so good, he's obviously going to start every game from here on; and his confidence is sky-high after a couple of goals and an assist in his last two league outings. Over 78,000 people have transferred him in since that breakthrough big haul against West Ham a few weeks back; but he's still owned by less than 0.8%. And he's the only starting forward priced at 4.5 million. (To be fair, Eli Kroupi is only 100k more, and Marc Guiu 300k cheaper; but neither of them are such nailed starters nor such good points prospects, I think.) Wolves are finally showing some signs of improvement under Rob Edwards; and they have a less daunting set of fixtures ahead, after a pretty horrendous December - and even their tougher opponents over the next couple of months or so are mostly home fixtures for them (Newcastle, Bournemouth, Chelsea, Villa, Liverpool). If Mané were classified as a midfielder (and he probably ought to be, on his current starting position), he'd be even more attractive for FPL. But if he keeps on playing like he has in those last two games, he'll be well worth considering as a forward too; and not just as a money-saving forward but, when in top form, perhaps as genuinely one of the best three available. The only things deflecting interest from him are Wolves's horrible team form so far this season, and the fact that FPL managers are not feeling too squeezed for budget at the moment and are mostly opting for the three best forwards they can get regardless of cost - but this may soon change.

One further quick suggestion to finish with - Newcastle's Harvey Barnes. Eddie Howe seems to have doubts about some aspects of his play, perhaps particularly in defensive covering, and has been hesitant to give him much of a run of starts (even when he's been able to stay fit; and that has been a bit of a problem for him since he joined the Tyneside club). And he's facing stiff competition in the wide positions from Gordon, Murphy, Wissa, and Elanga. But he's looking in stupendous form at the moment, is almost equally effective on either flank (where his positional rivals all heavily favour one side or the other), and has more pace and - arguably - better finishing than any of them. Successive braces against Leeds in the League and Portsmouth in the FA Cup have to make him worth a ponder.... If he continues to start and continues this vein of goalscoring form, he's probably a better short-term bet than Garner or Aaronson; but those are fairly big 'ifs' when weighed against the long-term consistency and guaranteed starts of the other two. He's more expensive too, at 6.1 million (but ownership only 1.4%). Newcastle's form has been very inconsistent this season too; and for a long time now, they've struggled particularly on the road. And they've now lost Schar and Livramento again, which could leave them in all sorts of trouble at the back. The upcoming fixtures are a bit of a mixed bag for them too: rather too many top opponents, perhaps, to make any of their players super-appealing picks. But.... when Barnes is in this sort of mood, he's well capable of going on a bit of a tear for 3 or 4 or 5 games and racking up some very nice points. (He is, in fact, a classic example of the sort of pick I really fancy but talk myself out of; and usually then regret having passed up when he scores 25 or 30 points over the following month!)

Facebook page (An Administrative Note)

When I launched this blog nearly 18 months ago, I set up a parallel Zen and the Art of FPL Facebook page.

If you've never visited it, you haven't really missed anything. I only used it as a platform to share links to posts here on the blog, and it didn't really include any 'original content' (except that in providing short introductory summaries to each linked post, I would occasionally frame its topic or purpose in a slightly different form of words than I had used in the original piece...). I was only using the Facebook page to try to gain a slightly wider exposure - to try to increase the blog's prominence in search-engine results, and perhaps to make it easier for folks to share any piece of mine that they happened to like.

I'd only just remembered to put a link to the Facebook page in the sidebar here a month or so ago....

And almost immediately I'd done that, I got shut out of my Facebook account... again.

Now, this has been happening more and more frequently over the last year. Indeed, just lately, I seem to have been getting 'locked out' once or twice a month! Most of these exclusions are rescinded within a day or two, sometimes after just a few hours; but more often I'm cut off for a full week; and, in the worst cases, once or twice for a month or so.

This latest interruption of service looks like being a particularly bad one - so, I've given up, for now, even trying to get back in; I'm expecting that I won't be able to regain access until at least the end of January.

Hence, there have been no posts on the Facebook page since just before Christmas. Indeed, at the moment, it doesn't appear to be visible any more - which may be an escalation over Zuck the Schmuck's previous persecutions of me.

Now, the loss of this rarely-visited-by-anyone page does not grieve me all that much. But I also maintained an FPL info page for my country of residence - which I saw as being a useful public service, and which put me in touch with a small community of fellow enthusiasts for the game. (That page still appears to be visible; but it's effectively now 'dead' since all posting rights seem to have been suspended.)  The loss of that second FB page galls me considerably.

The loss of access to every other Facebook page, however, and to my account details, my list of contacts, the messaging service - that is little short of a disaster.

In East Asia (and in many other parts of the 'developing world', I shouldn't wonder), Facebook is enormously popular. Most small businesses can't be bothered to set up and maintain their own website, so rely on a Facebook page instead; thus you can't readily keep abreast of openings and closings of local restaurants etc., special offers and promotions, special events like concerts and parties and such, without Facebook. The dratted site has also become the default option for setting up mutual support forums for various interest groups, especially among the expat community; so, you can't access 'buy & sell' groups, property rental listings, or general advice on how to deal with health issues, noisy neighbours, or whatever... without Facebook. And, worst of all for me, Facebook Messenger has become the preferred means of communication for just about everyone out here (I imagine there are alternative messaging services in the local languages of the region, but these perhaps don't support the use of English; so, anyone who wants to communicate with anyone else in English uses FB - not SMS, not even Whatsapp,.... Facebook!!); hence, when I'm shut out of my account, I can't contact my landlady or my visa agent or my doctor... or the handful of friends I have out here....  

Being cut off from all of that is not just an enormous hassle, it is potentially life-threatening. It is downright irresponsible of Facebook to shut people out of their accounts (without warning or explanation; and without providing any avenues for seeking redress!).

I hate you, Mark Zuckerberg, and all your incompetent minions! And most of all I hate your botlets of Artificial Stupidity which repeatedly judge me (oh, the irony!) to be potentially 'not a real person' - which is why I keep getting locked out.

Live and learn... (Or not!)

Someone on the FPL forums last week was interested in whether a player could play twice in the same gameweek for different clubs - effectively getting a unique, one-person double gameweek by virtue of having completed a transfer mid-gameweek and immediately turning out for his new club in their later fixture within the same batch of games. 

Now, I can't ever recall such a thing happening in the 33 previous seasons of the English Premier League; but it does seem as if it should be theoretically possible.

In practice, though, it seems as if it would be extraordinarily unlikely. These days, clubs typically drop a player - even from training, let alone competitive matches - once they're the subject of a transfer negotiation. This is because, if they've accepted that they're almost certainly going to lose the player, they're now more focused on what they can do with the money they can make from selling him, and will be reluctant to jeopardise a move through the risk of a last-minute injury. There may, of course, also often be doubts about a player's level of motivation or general focus on his game if he's determined to move on. And the buying club may reasonably expect, if not insist that the player is not risked in a match while the transfer deal is being finalised.

So, it's very, very, very rare for a player to play for his old club shortly before signing for a new one. But.... it just happened with Antoine Semenyo - who scored an injury-time winner for Bournemouth against Spurs last Wednesday evening, and was then announced as a Manchester City player barely 12 hours later on Thursday morning.

Ah, but it's also very, very, very rare for a player to play immediately for his new club, particularly within a matter of a day or two; there hasn't been time to get up to speed with the new team's tactics, or to build any rapport with teammates; they might only have been able to participate in one or two full training sessions - just not enough time to bed them in. And you might think that this would be especially the case at a club like City, where Pep sometimes takes weeks inculcating 'his way' of playing in a new signing before he'll consider giving him a regular start.

But again, Antoine Semenyo just played immediately for City, only two days after his transfer to them was confirmed. Of course, that wasn't a League game. But this instance again suggests that playing for two teams in the same gameweek could conceivably occur... once in a blue moon.

However, I believe players have to be registered with the League by noon on the day before their first eligible match for a new club - which adds a further layer of impracticality. Moreover, the League's offices don't usually 'work' on the weekends (this is why this year's transfer window is extended to Monday 2nd February), making it even more difficult to 'complete' a transfer and have a player eligible to play for a new club within the tight timeline of a single gameweek - although we do occasionally get a gameweek with a game scheduled on a Tuesday, after a roster of games mostly played over the preceding weekend, so it could still be possible. 

Of course, we also have occasional double gameweeks where some clubs are playing twice within a few days; this would extend the narrow window of opportunity for a player to complete a mid-gameweek transfer - well, except that such double gameweeks never occur during the early-season or mid-season transfer windows!

Not many regular gameweeks are spread over more than 3 or 4 days (although we did have one last season stretched over nearly 2 weeks due to a winter 'mini-break'). But, in this recent case, if Bournemouth's match had been on the Tuesday evening, and City's on the Thursday, Semenyo's registration could have been completed in time for him to play for both clubs.

It seems like this is the only way that this eventuality could come about: a slightly extended and/or midweek gameweek, at least one weekday between the two different clubs' fixtures in that gameweek, and a player confirming a transfer and getting it registered with the League the morning after the first of those two games. That is a very unlikely combination of circumstances, and I rather doubt if it will ever happen.

But.... if it should, there doesn't seem to be any logical reason why FPL would refuse to acknowledge a transfer that the League has accepted as valid, and refuse to record the points the player scores in his first game for the new club.

And yet, I have seen it suggested by a couple of people on those forums that there is supposedly an obscure 'rule' denying a player the right to score points for different clubs in a single gameweek. 

I say 'obscure' because I have never even come across a reference to or discussion of this supposed rule; and it certainly isn't included in the main 'Rules' of the game displayed on the FPL website, which I've screenshotted above. (Although these rules are excessively concise, and in some respects just very badly written - unclear, potentially ambiguous on a few points. And I wouldn't be surprised if there is an 'expanded version' of the rules hidden away online somewhere...)  [An aside: Why, oh why is something as important as the Rules of the Game hidden under the 'Help' tab rather than being given a tab of its own??]

And of course, these two bods on the forums, having no idea of how sourcing accurate information from the Internet actually works, omitted to provide a URL link to where they had found this information (one of them at least screenshotted the article in question; but with no indication of where it had come from, and it appeared to be only a paraphrase/illustrative example rather than a direct citation of the original text of the supposed rule).

I've had a bit of a rummage around online myself, but still haven't been able to come up with any definitive answer to this conundrum. It would seem curmudgeonly, unreasonable, nonsensical of FPL to craft a special rule to deal with such a wildly unlikely circumstance - but some folks out there are convinced that they have done so. I will try to investigate the issue further.

The roll of Doom

I had been thinking for a week or two of doing a brief post on possible/probable managerial sackings, and how that might impact FPL fortunes over the coming month or so, but.... well, I left it a bit too long, and the two prime candidates, Maresca and Amorim, pressed their own 'Eject' buttons to force an exit a bit earlier than most people were probably expecting.

Both Chelsea and United have been very inconsistent this season, and, overall, performing well below what you'd imagine their optimum potential ought to be. And both managers, you suspect, may have become somewhat unpopular with at least some of their players - particularly Amorim, whose obstinate adherence to a tactical system that obviously just didn't work with the players he had available, compounded by an insane insistence on tinkering with the line-up every single week for no fathomable reason, must have been enormously frustrating. So, I think there are excellent prospects for a very strong new manager bounce at both clubs. But that phenomenon is of very uncertain force and longevity, sadly tends to fizzle away quite soon.

I fancy that Liam Rosenior and whoever gets brought in at Old Trafford are both likely to be 'interim appointments' only, and will be moved on within 6-12 months, regardless of their results. But, that being the case, they're quite unlikely to get terminated earlier than that, even if their results are dreadful.

It's probably not a bad thing for a new United coach to have to start with fixtures against City and Arsenal, because no-one's really expected to win those, and anything the team can show in those games will be a plus. And after that daunting opening double, there's a run of much softer targets up until the end of February - and, with the aid of the new manager bounce, we might see some very good results for them in that period, I think. The problem for FPL is that we don't know what formation or selection the new man will favour, or how far certain players will thrive in it. Patrick Dorgu, in particular, has looked very promising when deployed in an attacking role a couple of times recently (and, since his FPL price has dropped so low, he's probably worth hanging on to as a 4th/5th defender, just to wait and see how things develop), but is quite likely to go back to being a more conventional full-back - if he keeps his place at all (Mazraoui or Shaw are better defensively, I think). If they show some defensive solidity, Lammens could become a tempting possibility in goal, at least as the back-up choice. Sesko, now that he finally seems to have found his scoring boots, could certainly be worth considering. Mount always looks good when he plays, but his injury-proneness has become a major problem. And of course Bruno is having his best season in years - although still, for me, a rather too intermittent points producer to be a really compelling FPL selection; his attractiveness will probably depend on whether the new coach continues to use him as a pivot player alongside Casemiro (there may be little alternative, since Casemiro doesn't have the legs to fill the role on his own any more, and Ugarte does not appear to be Premier League class) or allows him a freer role as an advanced playmaker, where he can really prosper. Cunha has started to show flashes of his former greatness again at last, but I fear that might evaporate as soon as Mbeumo's back; the Brazilian looks like one of those players who likes to have the spotlight on him, and only really excels when he's carrying the responsibility of being the team's star player and main goal outlet.

Enzo Fernandez (who's only intermittently shown FPL value), Cole Palmer and Joao Pedro (who haven't been worth selecting at all so far, but obviously have enormous potential if things start clicking for them under Rosenior), and Reece James (who's having a superb season, but unfortunately is still under the shadow of restricted minutes because of his past injury record) could become FPL essentials again at some point in the second-half of the season; and it might well happen immediately, since they face a very soft run of fixtures up until their clash with Arsenal at the end of next month.

What other managerial changes might be on the cards??

Well, I think Scott Parker is probably the most needful departure. He was quite a commanding presence on the pitch in his playing days, but he just doesn't give off that same energy as a coach - in fact, he doesn't express any energy at all. His morose, monotonous, emotionless drone of a press-conference performance sucks the life out of a room, and if he's like that in the dressing-room too, I can see why the Burnley players aren't lifting their level of performance. He gives the impression, too, of just not knowing why things are going wrong, having no real idea how to turn things around. And Burnley are deep, deep in the mire now, 8 points adrift of safety; the club needs to make a change soon to have any hope of Premier League survival. Frankly, I think it may already be too late, even if they can pull off an inspirational change of manager. But at least such a shake-up might shift the FPL calculus as to how much of a soft touch they're likely to be for opponents. (And I quite fancy Zian Flemming as a cheap 3rd striker option, if he keeps a regular start....)

Thomas Frank, alas, is probably the next most likely to get the axe fairly soon. A tremendously likeable man, and widely regarded as one of the most astute coaches in the game, but.... he is looking rather out of his depth at Spurs. But that may be second only to Manchester United as an ultimate 'poisoned chalice' appointment; there have been so many things wrong at that club for so many years that it's a huge task for any manager to dig them out of the mire in a single season. Being without their first-choice forward and their principal playmaker all season so far, and usually without at least one of their main defensive options as well, has obviously taken its toll. West Ham and Burnley up next ought to be easy wins; and then they have City, for whom they have become a bit of a bogey team in recent years. A few decent results over the coming month, and a few encouraging acquisitions during the window, should lift the clouds over Frank's head, I think. But some bad performances and bad results in these next three fixtures could seal his fate - that's how much of a knife-edge he's on right now.

I fear poor Nuno Espirito Santo's days might be numbered as well. I really like him, I think he comes across as a very honest, direct, decent and affable character, and he's proved himself in the past to be a very capable coach. But he's looking depressed at the moment - sad, lost, and defeated, like he doesn't think he can fix what's wrong at West Ham. Maybe no-one can - not without a major lift from some January transfers. But I think the club will have to try someone different quite soon, if they can't at least start to claw back some of the gap to Leeds and Forest. Matches against promoted Sunderland and Burnley in the next few weeks are likely to be make-or-break for Nuno, I suspect.

Sean Dyche is probably somewhat at risk too. Forest have improved a bit from their rocky start, particularly the horrible nosedive they took during the ill-advised Postecoglou interlude, but they're still not very consistent, still nowhere near the levels they were achieving last year. So long as they can maintain a decent gap over the bottom three (which might be more down to their continuing failures than Forest's 'success'), he'll probably be OK. But if the poor results continue while Burnley or West Ham mount a bit of a rally, I think he could be out of the door very quickly. Evangelos Marinakis has shown himself to be a very emotional, impulsive, and impatient man - and he's likely to get very spooked at any prospect of descending to the Championship again.

Andoni Iraola might also be under some threat, given Bournemouth's horrible run of results over the past couple of months (and things might get even worse for them if they do indeed lose Semenyo - and can't strengthen the squad in this transfer window). But they have a very inviting run of fixtures coming up now (apart from Liverpool at the end of the month, and at least that's at home). And frankly, those poor results have looked very largely down to some bad luck, rather than really bad performances. Given what Iraola has achieved for the club over the past couple of seasons, he deserves to be cut a lot of slack during an occasional downturn like this. I really can't see him deserving the sack, even if Bournemouth were to finish the season skirting the relegation zone - but I really don't think that's likely. Should it happen, however, the club's ownership might think that a new broom might re-energize things; but not for another month or two yet, at least, I would think, and probably not until the end of the season. The graver risk, perhaps, is that he might get tempted by offers from bigger clubs.

I don't think anyone else looks likely to be at risk this season. Arne Slot was probably always fairly bulletproof at Anfield - unless the team had sunk deep into the bottom half of the table, and they're surely much too good for that to happen. If they crash out of the Champions League early and fail to qualify for it next year through their league finish, then there might be a re-evaluation at the end of the season; but I can't see him going before that.

And Rob Edwards probably has the most secure job in the league right now: he was obviously hired for next year in the Championship. Salvaging a little bit of pride for Wolves, perhaps not finishing dead last, would be an adequate achievement for him this season - and, frankly, nobody is really expecting even that much.